It took more than two months, but high-end free agents have finally come flying off the board in Major League Baseball over the past few weeks. J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius, Masahiro Tanaka, Liam Hendriks, Michael Brantley, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Joc Pederson, Jose Quintana and Nelson Cruz – all among MLBTR’s top 20 free agents when the offseason began – have agreed to deals since 2021 opened. The open market does still feature several notable names from MLBTR’s rankings, though, as you’ll see below…
1.) Trevor Bauer, RHP (original prediction: four years, $128MM)
- The reigning NL Cy Young winner remains without an employer as spring training approaches, though a resolution could come very soon. It may now be a two-horse race between the Mets and Dodgers to secure Bauer’s services.
4.) Marcell Ozuna, OF/DH (original prediction: four years, $72MM)
- Ozuna is still in limbo partly because MLB hasn’t announced whether the universal DH will return in 2021. He spent most of his season there last year with Atlanta and was a premier hitter in terms of both bottom-line production and Statcast figures. The Dodgers, Brewers, Yankees, Red Sox and Twins have been connected to Ozuna in the rumor mill. The Twins have since agreed to re-sign DH Nelson Cruz, so Ozuna may have lost one suitor this week.
11.) Jake Odorizzi, RHP (original prediction: three years, $39MM)
- While Odorizzi went through a difficult and injury-shortened year as a Twin in 2020, they’re still interested in re-signing him. At least a few other teams are targeting the 30-year-old, so he figures to land on his feet with a nice deal in the coming weeks.
14.) Justin Turner, 3B (original prediction: two years, $24MM)
- There appear to be four finalists for Turner, who has been a tremendous contributor for the Dodgers dating back to his 2014 breakout. A return to the Dodgers is on the table, though Turner’s age (36) is working against him when it comes to earning power. It’s possible neither Los Angeles nor any other team will give him more than a two-year deal.
21.) Jackie Bradley Jr., CF (original prediction: two years, $16MM)
- With George Springer off the board, Bradley is undoubtedly the premier center field option left in free agency. The longtime member of the Red Sox, 30, has received interest from Boston, the Mets and the Giants over the past couple of weeks. He’s reportedly shooting for “a significant contract,” possibly for more than four years.
22.) James Paxton, LHP (original prediction: one year, $10MM)
- Paxton held a showcase that up to 20 teams attended at the end of December, and it apparently went well. The Blue Jays, Mets, Cardinals and Phillies are among the clubs that have shown some interest in the 32-year-old Canadian. Paxton endured an injury-wrecked 2020 with the Yankees, so he’s not a free agent at the best time, but he’s only two seasons removed from putting up very good production and has historically held his own when healthy.
23.) Taijuan Walker, RHP (original prediction: two years, $16MM)
- After a trade from the Mariners, Walker closed the year with the flourish as a member of the Blue Jays, though it’s unclear whether they’re interested in re-signing him. The 28-year-old combined for a 2.70 ERA in 53 1/3 innings between the two teams, but that came with a much less impressive 4.60 SIERA and below-average strikeout and swinging-strike rates.
27.) Trevor Rosenthal, RP (original prediction: two years, $14MM)
- The former St. Louis closer was brilliant last season between the Royals and Padres, which came after a couple of trying years owing to injury and poor performance. Rosenthal is now the No. 1 reliever left on the board. San Diego and Toronto are a couple of the teams that have considered him so far.
32.) Yadier Molina, C (original prediction: one year, $10MM)
- While Molina has gotten interest from other teams this offseason, a reunion with the Cardinals seems inevitable. The 38-year-old has been been part of the organization since it drafted him in 2000, and indications are that he and the Cards want to stick together.
46.) Rick Porcello, RHP (original prediction: one year, $5MM)
- Porcello is nowhere near the AL Cy Young winner he was with the Red Sox in 2016, but he remains an innings eater who can at least fill out the back of a team’s rotation. However, the rumor mill centering on the 32-year-old has been quiet this winter.
Would you guys change your contract predictions now that we have seen how the market has been playing out? At the beginign of the off season, it looked like some free agents would have to settle for way less than usual, especially after Brad Hand went unclaimed. Now that many of the top free agents have signed, how different would your guys’ predictions be now if you were to change any?
I think it’s unnecessary that they “change” their predictions because it just goes to show how the mentalities have changed going through the off-season. They might not be close to right anymore, but it shows just how wrong we perceived the off-season spending to be. I don’t mean to brag (ok, I do), but when the predictions came out I said that they seemed awfully low despite the thought that smaller spending would be an issue. I think I can chop that up to a W on my part now. Again, I don’t mean to brag (but I do).
As big a W as that David Freese hit? ^_^ Goo Dodgers though.
How humble
Your modesty ranger 29 is epic.
Their numbers aren’t that far off. I keep track and do my own guesses against theirs. So far, guys on the top 50 list have signed on average 1.91 years at 24.4m. Their guesses on the guys that have signed so far comes out to 1.88 years at 22.4m. They’re basically dead on for years and just over $1m off on the AAV.
Since the Cardinals are looking for a starting pitcher a good choice could be James Paxton. He would fit well in the Cardinals’ rotation.
You will change your mind in September.
With the very real possibility of the NL not having a DH i wonder if maybe Paxton with all of his various injuries is not a good choice for a NL team
Yeah, I second you there. He injures himself pitching and you want him to hit now also?
Uh, oh.
Paxton might be a Met as even if he gets hurt the hope would be he might be able to pitch until Syndergaard returns to the rotation in May or early June so having a healthy Paxton until June 1st is something the Mets might be able to handle.
It’s cute that you actually have hope for the season. Where shall I ship your dodger jersey. It’s going to be a blue October and we know that.
Bauer is going to suck in 2021. I never liked this guy, and he pitched well in a 60 game season not in a 162 game season. Yes the Dodgers will once again exceed the luxury tax so maybe MLB should insist that no team goes over the luxury tax or they loose their first 3 draft picks, and are not allowed to sign any international free agents either. That will help reduce the Dodgers stranglehold on really playing dirty every year with prospects and overpaid players. .
It’s cute that you actually have hope for this season. It’s going to be a blue October and we know this. Where shall I ship your Dodger jersey to?
Wendell a Blue October is right, where should i send your Blue Jays Jersey to?
Steve Cohen made close to a billion shorting gamestop. He should use the money to pay Lindor and Conforto, not Bauer.
6 of the 10 are pitchers. 5 SP’s, 1 RP. I think Paxton is way under-valued (22) given Odorizzi’s rank (11).
I’m predicting Paxton to the Jays 1 year 12 million.
I’d be very happy with Paxton/Walker and Rosenthal in terms of rounding out the roster. Lineup looks good, need to ensure the SP and bullpen can hold up.
Don’t tease me. That would be the dog bullocks if that happened
The dog’s bollocks….. LOL.
Dog bullocks would be something entirely different!
What is the dog bullocks??? Something tells me that’s either a typo, an old really English reference, or either some new internet lingo I’m not familiar with…lol
Either way though, I cannot help but doubt that the Jay’s would get both, one of Paxton or Walker and then Rosenthal on top of it..Then again, it wouldnt be the first time I was wrong…
Jesus Christ though, can AA and the Braves PLEASE either sign or trade for a big bat 3B/LF that’s capable of hitting behind Freeman!?!
The Braves have already bolstered their rotation, to where they’re going to now not only have one of the better top young trios in the game, but they’ve built up some quality depth now with Morton, Smyly, Wright, Wilson, and possibly even guys like Davidson, Touki, Newk, and Muller too..Their rotation of Soroka, Fried, Morton, Anderson, and either Smyly, Wright, or Wilson should be one of the better rotations in the NL, and they could end up being one of the best in baseball if Fried, Soroka, Anderson, and one of Wright or Wilson continue to develop further..
Alot of people forget that Atlanta pushed the Dodgers as far as humanly possible without winning. AND let us NOT FORGET the Braves did this while ONLY having ONE Starting Pitcher that wasn’t considered a rookie!!
Riding their stout and strong bullpen, with the emergence of Max Fried as a legitimate Cy Young candidate, and by having Ian Anderson come up and baffle opponents with his devastating change-up, the Braves were able to significantly outperform almost every single analyst’s expectations, and probably even their own..lol I know they outperformed my own expectations, especially almost beating the Dodgers cone playoff time.
However, even with three feasibly possible top ten to top twelve NL Cy Young candidates in Soroka, Fried, and Morton, and with a Rookie of the Year favorite in Ian Anderson leading their rotation, and even still with a strong and extremely deep bullpen lead by the likes of Chris Martin, AJ Minter, Tyler Matzek, Jacob Webb, Will Smith, Josh Tomlin, Jeremy Walker, Carl Edwards Jr., and either Sean Newcomb, Huascar Ynoa, Touki Toussaint, Patrick Weigel, Chad Sobotka, Grant Dayton, or Victor Arano, the Braves could still use a proven closer, instead of thrusting Chris Martin into the role..
That’s why several of the Braves relief arms were able to have huge, breakout seasons last year, and that is because they had so much depth in their pen, they were able to use guys primarily only in roles they were used to and comfortable with. The Braves might not have that same luxury if they don’t either resign Melancon to close, or add a proven, veteran closer to move Martin and everyone back an inning or so…
Not only that, the Braves still have AN ENORMOUS hole in their lineup and on their bench after they have lost both Adam Duvall and especially Marcek Ozuna. The Braves desperately need to replace Ozuna’s bat, and if they truly want to make another run at the NL pennant, then they’re going to have to replace their previous excellent fourth outfielders in Duvall, and his bat off the bench as well..
Once they sign/trade for two power bats, and add either a closer or a guy like Shane Greene, then the Braves will put themselves right in the perfect spot to contend for the NL championship and eventually Macworld Series Championship!!!!!!!
Funny that a terrier is the first to pipe up about dog gonads 😉
I agree but the Mets still need a real 3B man. Davis has a strong arm but he overthrows the ball way too much plus he takes really poor routes to get to the ball, and then throws off balance resulting both is mishandling the ball, and poorly throwing it. JD is a DH as his bat is his main asset. Plus he is a slow runner perhaps the slowest guy on the team other than Nido.
Paxton is unlikely to get even $10M
Jackie Bradley Jr. is delusional. Anyone offering more than 2 years and $12 million is overpaying for a dude who can’t hit.
Jackie Bradley is dreaming. Someone’s not being real with this guy.
This is the Boras factor coming into play. If Bradley wants to play in 2021 it will be a last minute short term deal.
Porcello should really transition to a reliever.
Or a parking garage attendant
“Mr. Vaughn. I thought you were starting tonight?”
“I did”
“Oh sorry, i didn’t turn on the game til the second inning”
I’m pretty sure Porcello has pitched more innings than any other pitcher since 2016. And I don’t think his stuff would necessarily play up as a reliever,
His role is as an innings eater for a team, which will do more to protect a bullpen then his joining one will help.
He has the most inns over the last decade outside of Max-
Agree Odd, his role is a Sp 5 that is durable- Perfect for the Cubs right now on a 2/11
Kind of a sad state when a guy who averaged just under 5 innings per game (12/59) can be called an innings eater.
@Cosmos I’m pretty sure the average innings per game start was under 5 IP last year. Porcello is just that if he can stay above the leaguewide downtrend for the last couple of seasons.
He’s got to be one of the more off-the-wall Cy Young winners ever. Even a guy like R.A. Dickey, I remember just being dominant. I may be wrong, but I don’t remember Porcello (or anyone that year) just being the no doubt, best pitcher that year. Plus the oddities surrounding the voting totals between him and Verlander.
Sounds like Bauer
Yea Zach Britton was the no doubt best pitcher of 2016 lol clear as day.
The one thing Porcello has working in his favor (other than durability) is that he is really good every two or three seasons. Had very good ’18, a decent ’19, and a terrible ’20, so ’21 should be a good season for him when he finally signs somewhere
Look, just looking at the market and listening to rumors (assuming a trade isn’t in the works)… if the Braves don’t resign Ozuna, then the entire offseason is a complete failure and will only be made worse if the DH stays in the NL.
Look, everyone knows Sinclair was a superior commanding officer over Sheridan.
However marched to the beat of a different drummer
@bravesfan, I think you can cross the Yankees off the Ozuna suitors. When you have Stanton, Sanchez and Judge all in line for time at that position, I can’t see why they would spend money on him. Maybe it’s the agent trying to push the price up…
After signing DJLM I don’t think the Yankees want to add another multi year contract. The contract he signed was a good deal and even then it felt like they were stretching to make it.
Just a couple months ago, I was okay if the Braves didn’t resign Ozuna, especially now that it’s unlikely there will be a DH. But now the only bat on the FA market is Justin Turner who might be a worse signing then Ozuna if only because the Braves will have to overpay for him. They’d have to motivate him to leave LA behind which doesn’t sound like something the Braves would do.
Of course I think the most likely scenario is they do nothing and go in as is. Not sure if that’s worse than overpaying to get Turner anyway.
Braves can never take 2 steps forward in the same offseason, it’s either fix the pen, rotation or get a couple bats musical chair kinda thing.
Exactly, drives me crazy. They operate very reactionary vs. being proactive. Then scramble at trade deadline trying to play catch up…that strategy doesn’t work too often; Ten Run Tommy Milone trade is a great example when it doesn’t smh
This is so true it hurts. First the pen was horrible and fixed, then the bats were upgraded, now this year it’s the rotation. Bud we fail to keep together the pieces that crushed it in both the pen and lineup. So yes, the rotation is fixed, but now the lineup is near broken and the bullpen took a step back
Chipahawk
Braves don’t have an elite FO. They have some financial wherewithal, but don’t have the situational awareness to use it properly.
Now is the time to go ‘all gas, no break’. They have young players who can definitely provide an upside by stepping forward, Freddie only has so many good seasons left and there’s a new kid on the block named Uncle Steve. Win now or risk being chased down from behind for the division.
SD got a lot better and LAD not only won it all , but also get better as young players continue to improve. Oh… and they might sign Bauer
The Braves have freeman contract expiring and the vast majority of their youth is cheap this year. Insane they aren’t pushing in the chip. The financial situation is only going to get worse going forward. The Mets sign Bauer I think they become significant favorites in East.
Here come the apologists just wait lol…”We signed Morton and Smyly, we won the off-season already!” smh….Another thing I don’t get is why the DH is what the Braves are waiting on to resign Ozuna? Did they not just sign him last offseason WITHOUT the DH?!
Actually I think you are seeing the MO of most clubs right now, obviously, including my beloved Yanks. It’s incredibly frustrating because it’s almost as if they are happy to be just good enough, knowing a few extra moves would put them above everyone else (or the Dodgers).
@yankeeclipper – if you were Yankees GM, what move would you make?
It’s very easy to say without the very real constraints of a budget, and I’ve operated within that framework before, so I’ll try to tap into that and be succinct with four priorities:
1) SP (Henricks #3, Castillo #1-2) If only Hendricks, that’s fine, next offseason more SP are available by trade and FA, but one of these or comp is a must this year and two if we want to win now. Trade what you must to facilitate this from the farm.
2) RP (like Hand) & Try to acquire Trevor Story, if possible, because Gleyber would make for a fine trade chip for a SP (if we didn’t get Castillo or didn’t want to burn the farm) leaving us with an upgrade at SS. Love Gleyber, but you asked.
3) Look at what I have leftover and begin planning on a move of Judge or Stanton (I know, yeah right), and either Voit or Urshela, to see what the return would be to restock the farm some. 1B and 3B are arriving next year as well, so we still have options.
4) Catcher! We need a reliable everyday starting catcher.
Problem with all of my assessment – Yankees could’ve accomplished this and didn’t because of inaction. They didn’t move. They had opportunities (Darvish, Lindor, Perez), they just didn’t move in the name of budget and DJL.
Realistically, they could’ve potentially traded Torres or Urshela, guys from their farm, maybe Frazier, and improved their team quite substantially without paying that much money.
I don’t understand what AA is doing. He is supposedly in on everybody well eventually you have to get somebody. Ok I get it you don’t want to overpay a FA in years but that means you have to make a trade for SOMEBODY. Now I do understand he works in stealth mode and he has pulled some blockbusters out the air but they had the Dodgers on the ropes in the playoffs
Only thing I can think of, he’s cool with Drew Waters taking over LF next year and praying the DH doesn’t come back to the NL. Cause there is no rational explanation at this point to not fill in obvious needs.
I can’t see Waters being ready yet. Gotta be a trade in the works only thing is for who ????
And don’t get me started on a Freeman extension how is that not done already. ????
It’s clear the Braves aren’t interested in putting together a complete team to make a push.
Their window started 2 seasons ago and they’ve sat back and done nothing to fill in the gaps. Soon Freeman will be gone or on the decline. The young pitchers will be hitting arb and unaffordable to keep them all, etc.
They’ve still got a decent 2-3 more years in this window but it’s going to pass soon without even having really tried.
It’s so sad. This team is a joke though. More worried about removing the foam tomahawk because a Cardinals pitcher cried it was insensitive (when really he just wanted to give his team an advantage of eliminating it) than they are about winning actual championships
This team isn’t interested in winning titles any more and if you’re only noticing that now you’re about 10 years behind the curve
I hate seeing it in the NBA so I cringe even saying this…but Freddie should take a page from the NBA and flex his player power and force Ownership to stop sitting on their hands every season or he wants to be traded to a contender. I know that will never happen but it’s going to be this way forever until something major changes…like Ownership for example ;-)…Arthur Blank for Owner 2022! lol
Dodgers should just re-sign Justin Turner and call it an off-season. Pass on Bauer and his price & baggage.
I know Angels did pass after trade for Cobb
Agreed!
You should just add blurbs for Cole Hamels and Mark Melancon and you’d have everybody left for the original top 50 list.
“Any time of the day is a good time for pie.”
Bradley should be after Paxton and Rosenthal.
White Sox should be in Ozuna for DH.
I can see that. Let Vaughn play a year In minors.
Why isn’t Gardner on the list? Ok maybe not top 10 lol but top 15
I bet the Angels would take Gardy over Fowler at that price tag… why not go after him? Probably a better defender, runner, and doesn’t get hurt.
The only OFer on the Yankees that doesn’t…. well, maybe Frazier but there’s still time.
Pirates, Marlins, Royals, Dbacks are probably waiting to make some cheap 1 year offers hoping to flip them at the deadline.
mets should sign Odorizzi, and Rosenthal, and fill in players for bench and back up, can do all that with money they offering Bauer
@JR Only 40-men on the roster. So they’d have to make some cuts, but you’re still right.
Porcello to SF.
Seriously does Ozuna have any other serious takers out there ???
How is he not a Brave already
I would prefer Bryant on a 1 year deal and the ability to offer him a QO to replenish one of the prospects it would cost to get him
But if they were in on Springer interest in Realmuto how is Ozuna not signed
Over paid Smyly to get him to sign for 1 year why not over pay for 1 year of Ozuna ???
NL gonna have a DH after next year anyway sign him for 4-5 yrs with an opt out after the first year. If NL gets the DH he will opt out cause he has more options
If it doesn’t you can trade him to an AL team after he has a big year cause he wants to opt out for a bigger contract
Win win
I don’t understand what AA is waiting for
Ozuna doesn’t want another 1 year contract … It will take at least 3 probably 4 to land him
I would rather see the Braves trade for Ramirez or Suarez, Bryant would be ok but he is only a 1 year rental and if you giving up prospects a longer term is more cost effective. I dont think Ozuna would keep up the #’s and we could have better defence without him. Get Duvall back at the end of off season discount to pair with Riley at left.
Perfect world the Braves get Ramirez but that’s not gonna happen without either Pache or Waters
I don’t see AA giving up either
Red Sox should sign Porcello again for the cheap and help round out the rotation
Porcello wasnt terrible for the mets..they should resign him
He was horrible for the Mets and they shouldn’t even think of resigning him
Yet people are clamoring for their team to sign Paxton for double or triple what porcello probably will get AAV. Paxton is less accomplished, injury proned, and probably will have to sign someone else to make up for the inning he will inevitably miss.
Especially next year i would take a cheap durable innings eater with even a little bit of potential over someone i would need to worry about every pitch having to find a replacement for. Especially coming off another injury. I dont think anyone pitched 70 innings last year so arms will need rest especially bullpen.so teams get used to 100+ more games. Surprised Rick is not on more radars in the 5-10mil range for a year. Could be he wants more.
I think that the Orioles should go after Rick Porcello. A 1yr 5mill offer isn’t bad. If he ends up pitching well they can then flip him at the deadline and if he ends up not so hot well then they really didn’t spend all that much on him
Porcello is a veteran starting pitcher and is only 32. Those kinds of guys provide plenty of value to rebuilding teams whose young pitchers aren’t yet ready for MLB. They’re also valuable to playoff contenders because they can take starts when injuries happen (like they always do). Staff saver. Inning eater. A veteran presence who can be helpful just being around younger pitchers. Not glamorous roles but important over a long season. My guess is that Porcello winds up taking a team-friendly deal from someone and has a decent year as a back-of-the-rotation/spot starter type.
Connor decide to say “F the chat” tonight? And JBJ is an odd hill for Boras to die
How is Rick Porcello younger than 45?
He got started in MLB young, going 14-9 as a 20-year-old rookie in 2009.
I fully expected Walker and Paxton to get snatched up on some pretty team friendly deals, loaded with incentives..
Whichever team that’s get either of those guys, if they’re healthy, they’re going to be getting two absolute steals!!
Both have proven to be excellent pitchers when they’re healthy. Also, alot of people look at Walker’s advanced stats, and think he’s due to regress severely..Well, Walker is alot some Quintana and Teheran, during their best seasons, Walker is also likely to continue to outperform his advanced stats. That is simply because he’s more of a contact oriented pitcher, and advanced stats tend to grade those types of pitchers alot more harshly than they do strikeout pitchers..
Paxton would fit in the NYM rotation, certainly brandishing solid performance when not dealing w the IL. Give him his 1/10MM until Peterson gets more seasoned. Lucchesi second P in – out of the pen maybe spot starting/injury insurance. Just a back up thought if Bauer goes west to LAD
Bauer – Mets
Odorizzi – Angels
Ozuna – Braves (Or Multiyear w/Detroit)
JBJ – Giants
Turner – Blue Jays
Porcello – Red Sox
Yadi – Duh
Rosenthal – Padres
Walker – Blue Jays
Paxton – Phils
BONUSES:
Rich Hill – Rays
Jake Arrieta – Twins
*Im an idiot, but let’s talk about it.
@tbfern. Why would Detroit sign Ozuna? Tigers are not close to contending.
Agree, they’re not. BUT Detroit needs SOMEBODY to hit next year. They have a DH spot, just got off Jordan Zimmermans big contract, and can help mentor the younger guys coming into the system, but who knows with Ozuna ♂️ He’s like Nelson Cruz sort of, just plug him into a DH spot or corner outfield and let him swing it.
Ozuna is tricky. I can’t imagine the Braves want to give him a multi year deal but also can’t think of a team in the AL.
Semien signing probably takes the Jays out of the Turner sweepstakes unless the Jays plan on trading for a SP to open that spot. Braves should be on Turner.
Tbfern: you are not an idiot. Slow, confused, perhaps, but not an idiot.
I wouldn’t disagree with any of these compelling points you just made lol. You could probably add a couple more in there honestly.
Thinking Bauer stays home & takes the 1 or 2 year high AAV with the Dodgers…better chance to get to the World Series over the next two years. Also think Turner re-signs with the Dodgers. Ozuna goes back to Atlanta, Rosenthal signs with the Padres and Walker signs with the Blue Jays. Thinking the Angels sign Arrieta…another reunion with Maddon.
Porcello only beat Verlander for that Cy Young because the writers who vote are stupid AF.
“That’s a fact Jack!”- Bill Murray Stripes
Does anyone know if Paxton wants a multi year deal. If I’m the Twins I would of signed Paxton over Happ even if Paxton probably cost extra. I guess Paxton waiting on Toronto to swoop in and pay him after Bauer is signed.
I am surprise the Red Sox haven’t kicked the tires on Paxton or Walker. They have nothing to lose and should be able to fit either of them in under the luxury tax.
nutting wallet of the pirates said they are trying to keep financial flexibility so they problay wont sign any of these free agents