The Royals and third baseman Hunter Dozier “are in serious talks” about a multi-year contract extension, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). Specific terms aren’t known, though Dozier has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining before reaching free agent status following the 2023 season. Dozier is already set to earn $2.72MM in 2021 after reaching an arb-avoiding deal with K.C. back in December.
Selected eighth overall in the 2013 draft, Dozier enjoyed a breakout season in 2019, hitting .279/.348/.522 with 26 homers and a league-best 10 triples over 586 plate appearances. That was followed up by a less-impressive 2020 (.228/.344/.392 over 186 PA) but with some obvious extenuating circumstances — not just the 2020 campaign’s smaller sample size, but Dozier also missed over two weeks at the start of the season due to a positive COVID-19 diagnosis. Dozier’s hard-contact numbers dropped off considerably from 2019 to 2020, though his walk rate also significantly improved.
It sets the stage for what could be an interesting set of extension talks, considering that 2020 wasn’t exactly a great platform year. Dozier turned 29 last August, so he might have more incentive to lock in some long-term security now rather than bet on hitting a big payday on the open market entering his age-32 season. It’s worth noting that L. Warner Companies Inc. (Dozier’s agency) also represents another prominent Royal in Whit Merrifield, who signed an extension with Kansas City just over two years ago, though Merrifield and Dozier aren’t really comps — Merrifield is 31 months older and was still entering his final pre-arb season when he inked his long-term deal.
There aren’t a ton of great recent comps for Dozier overall, in looking at recent extensions of players who had between three and four years of MLB service time. The odd nature of the 2020 season adds another layer of difficulty in trying to predict what a Dozier extension could look like, since those past players didn’t have such an outlier of a year factoring into the situation. The list of players who have signed an extension since the pandemic began consists only of unique mega-deals (i.e. Mookie Betts and Fernando Tatis Jr.), players who signed contracts only covering arbitration-eligible years, or Yuli Gurriel’s one-year extension with the Astros at the end of September.
Extensions have been a key plank of Dayton Moore’s team-building strategy since he became Kansas City’s GM in 2006. After an offseason that saw the Royals make some notable moves in acquiring Andrew Benintendi and signing Carlos Santana and Mike Minor to two-year free agent deals, it’s clear that Moore and his front office are preparing to be competitive after four straight losing seasons. It’s safe to assume that the Royals will explore long-term deals with multiple young building-block players as Spring Training rolls on, with such names as Adalberto Mondesi and Brad Keller standing out as possible extension candidates. Kansas City could also look into locking up younger players who are even earlier in their careers (like Brady Singer or Kris Bubic), and veterans like Jorge Soler and franchise stalwart Salvador Perez are each just a year away from free agency.
Would be a carbon copy of a Randal Grichuk or Stephen Piscotty extension. In other words, why?
If I was Dozier or any good young player, I wouldn’t sign an extension coming off a revenue loss season like 2020. This offseason has seen salaries go down.
That is completey wrong and right. Ozuna and Cruz salary went down, but the reliever market had lots of high AAV deals including Hendriks who broke it, DJ could of gotten a higher AAV but he took longevity. McCan got 10 million which was a lot.
Relative to what MLBR predicted, most FAs have done well.
id be a little skeptical. he’s a little inexperienced for his age and outside of 2019 has been mediocre. id expect a rebound but how far?
Had a minus 0.5 in oWAR in 2018. How can you get negative oWAR? Bad base running?
You get a negative anything-WAR by being worse than a replacement level player. He was worse than what you’d get from any random AAAA guy as a hitter, is what that’s saying.
WAR is a culmulative stat, but you can accumulate it in either direction.
I’m going out on a limb (as a Royals fan mind you) and say 5years/37.5 mil with an option for a 6th year at 12.5 mil & a 2.5 million buyout on that 6th season.
So really 5/40…
Also this will be one of 4 players KC attempts to lock up this season with Mondi, Benny, & Keller slated for extensions & being a core 4 moving forward for several seasons.
I like Dozier but I’m not interested in committing to him through age 34 season. I don’t think it will guarantee more than 1 free agent year. Might just be locking in his arb years.
Especially with Bobby Witt likely playing third in 22, Dozier is not even close to my top extension priority.
1) Salvy
2) Mondesi
3) Soler
Before long I think he’ll be the predominant DH.
Maybe as soon as next year depending on how Witt Jr. progresses…
Hi, my name is Jorge Soler and I’m already the DH. Dozier is more likely to land at first.
Salvy’s best days are behind him
Coming off the best offensive season of his career, be he’s also a 31 year old catcher so this isn’t exactly breaking news.
So before the serious talks, were they having facetious talks?
Dayton Moore: I’ve got a serious extension.
Hunter Dozier: Can I have it?
Moore: Oh, you naughty girl.
Damn, Dayton Moore has been GM for 15 years. He’s been through the highs and the lows, that’s for sure lol
If this is big news for the Royals, it will be another looong season.
It’s the Royals. It’s not like its going to be a bank breaking extension. Maybe something to buy out his remaining arbitration years and a free agent year or two, give the team some cost certainty.
No reason for this unless Moore wants a new job.
I am a huge fan of Hunter Dozier but this extension better be in the 3 year range. Buy out the arbitration years. 3rd base this year and then move to left or 1st the next 2 seasons(maybe DH if they don’t keep Soler, which I don’t want).