Feb. 18: The Padres have announced the signing. Mike Clevinger was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Clevinger, of course, is expected to miss the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery.
Feb. 17: Melancon will be guaranteed $3MM on the deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He’ll earn a $2MM salary in 2021, and there’s a $1MM buyout on a a mutual option for the 2022 season, Heyman adds. The contract allows Melancon to earn another $2MM via incentives.
Feb. 12: The Padres have agreed to a deal with free-agent reliever Mark Melancon, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal with Melancon, an ISE Baseball client, will become official once he’s passed a physical.
Melancon, 36 next month, adds a former All-Star closer to an already deep Friars bullpen. He’ll give skipper Jayce Tingler another option for ninth-inning work, joining Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan as closer candidates in San Diego. Based on his recent work, Melancon could well jump to the front of the line as the favorite for saves.
Melancon just finished up the final season of a four-year, $62MM contract that briefly stood as the all-time record for a reliever. (Both Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen topped that mark within weeks of Melancon signing.) The deal didn’t exactly pay dividends for the Giants, as Melancon battled injuries in both 2017 and 2018, but he bounced back with a strong showing in 2019 and was quite strong over the past season-plus following a trade to the Braves.
Melancon pitched 43 2/3 innings with Atlanta, racking up 22 saves while posting strong strikeout and walk percentages (26.3 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively). He’s also one of the game’s leading ground-ball pitchers, evidenced by a whopping 61.4 percent mark over the past two years.
Despite the success in Atlanta, there are some red flags surrounding Melancon. In addition to the fact that he’ll pitch all of 2021 at age 36, last year’s 91.7 mph average fastball represented the second-lowest mark of his career while his 8.7 percent swinging-strike rate was a career-low. He still excelled at inducing weak contact and ought to benefit from a generally strong defensive infield defense, though.
The Friars already had not only a crowded but also relatively immobile bullpen (from a roster flexibility standpoint). None of Pomeranz, Austin Adams, Pierce Johnson, Dan Altavilla, Craig Stammen or Javy Guerra can be optioned to the minors. Pagan has options but surely isn’t in danger of being sent down, and Tim Hill (who also has options) is one of the team’s three lefties. It could be tough for the Padres to continue carrying the out-of-options Guerra, a converted shortstop who has yet to find much success in Triple-A or the Majors, but they may not want to give up on him considering his heater averages better than 98 mph.
Those, of course, are the types of decisions that playoff-caliber clubs are forced to make when adding improvements, and the Padres have solidified themselves as just that. After making the postseason for the first time under newly promoted president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in 2020, the Padres have added the likes of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim this winter while also re-signing Jurickson Profar. Melancon is the latest, and perhaps the final, piece of an active offseason that has deepened an already-talented team which looks increasingly capable of giving the World Champion Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West.
Ya'll a bunch of salty crybabies
LOL!
2020WorldChampions
Melancon…..the Guy SF foolishly paid Chapman / Jansen money to a few years ago. He’s terrible
He’ll get lit up by NL West hitters. Dodger hitters…lol . It’ll be like BP
arthur blank_for owner
He was lights out with Braves…hate to see him go
WarrenSpahn
Melancon hasn’t been lights out for anyone since Pirates/Nats in 2016.
horrible contract for the Giants….
arthur blank_for owner
as a closer for the Braves he was better than most closers in the league
chippahawk
Braves addressed the rotation and kept ozuna but now the bullpen is lacking once again. No Greene or melancon could get ugly quick.
SalaryCapMyth
@WarrenSpan..so there are these things called stats. You should check them out. Might revolutionize your thinking. Just Google Baseball Reference. I prefer Fangraphs but b-Ref is more of a starter for people just getting into numbers or just need a simple layout. =D
Mjshof
Lol. Lights out and they can’t scrape up $3MM for the guarantee in a prime season of their ‘window’
damascusj
Not sure how you’re trying to spin that into an insult, but that seems like good business to me padres got melly and kela for less than half of what rosey was asking, and that was combined. Padres made some great moves. Maybe not the most popular, since rosey was well liked by the fans, but still, very good moves
cainer18
Overpaid doesn’t mean terrible… it’s easy to criticize in hindsight, but there’s a reason he got $62M. It was the 2017 market rate for a closer with several dominant seasons under his belt, and as the post mentions it was the third biggest contract given to a reliever that offseason. Not defending big contracts for relievers, but to say Melancon is terrible is both inaccurate and not at all insightful. If you’re going to hate for the sake of it, at least put a little effort to be remotely connected to reality
2020WorldChampions
@cainer18 dude YOU need to do your homework .
When Melancon signed wSF . The closer market rate had NOT been established!
Chapman , Jansen and Melancon were the the top three closers available. And all three were still on the board when Evans signed Melancon
Melancon signed FIRST. Thus , establishing the Market value.
Also it’s worth noting that of the three available closers, you’re framing it as all three were equal . That’s completely inaccurate. The talent gap between Chapman and Jansen was minimal while the gap between Jansen / Chapman was massive
The talent grading scale was like Jansen / Chapman ‘A+ ‘while Melancon was at best a ‘B’
Evans set the market rate with that ridiculous signing . And Jansen and Chapman’s signings followed.
So, Don’t frame this as SF reacting to the market when in fact , the the Giants SET it.
Do your homework before you joust w/ me
Pads Fans
@2020 DUDE. You seriously need to do your homework, It was widely reported what Chapman was asking for long before Melancon signed. This site had predicted almost exactly what Chapman and Melancon signed for and we knew in November of 2016 that Chapman wanted over $17 million per season. The market was established already, your semantics not withstanding. Chapman got what he was asking for AAV. Melancon got substantially less per season and overall (15.5 vs 17.2 and 62 vs 86)
2.32 ERA 127 saves, 162 ERA+ (2016 – 63 Saves)
1.93 ERA 131 saves, 202 ERA+ (2016 – MLB high 67 saves)
1.72 ERA. 105 saves, 233 ERA+ (2016 – 52 saves)
Those are the 3 previous seasons each of Melancon, Chapman, and Jansen had before signing their big 2017 contracts. Which is which?
So framing it as SF reacting to the market is exactly what happened. They were not willing to pay what Chapman was asking after talking with his agent so they went out and signed one of the other top closers on the market.
WHAT exactly does your statement of “The talent gap between Chapman and Jansen was minimal while the gap between Jansen / Chapman was massive” mean?
Do your homework before you come at someone with your opinion.
UGA_Steve
Who signed first does not establish market value to MLB GM’s and executives. It might seem like it if you don’t see/hear all the talks, but the reality was they knew what the market was.
The previous signings of guys like Papelbon who had similar numbers just prior to his contract had determined approximate value. Then you add in the fact that rumors around Chapman and Jansen were in the 20+ and 18+ range.
cainer18
@2020
1) You’re assuming that all these negotiations happen in isolation of each other, as though the Giants weren’t talking to Chapman and Jansen before signing Melancon. @Pads Fan laid it out nicely. These asking prices were well known to the public, so imagine how intimately intertwined all the negotiations were for the three top closers behind closed doors. To say that Melancon signing first established Chapman’s market is plain false. Plus, historically it’s more likely to be the biggest earner who signs first, which sets the market for the players below.
2) I fail to see how I implied all three closers are the same, that’s all your own projection. Melancon was definitely the weakest of the trio, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t also coming off a stretch of often-dominant pitching. It doesn’t matter if he’s a “B+” as you put it, if enough teams enter the bidding and someone gives him $62M, that’s how the market works. Again, it’s an overpay and a huge risk, but that’s free agency for you. Especially in 2017, where every team and fan base still fetishized having their own murderer’s row of late-inning relief (everyone wanted the next Holland-Davis-Herrera/Chapman-Miller-Betances backend of the bullpen, and teams were extra willing to shell out for closers, so pointing out that context is important)
3) your idea of the first contract always setting the market rate is rigid and often inaccurate. If someone hands out a bad contract, does every team have to suddenly pay more for a better player? Sure, establishing the market for a position or caliber of player is a thing that happens, but you seem so convinced that Melancon is actually terrible (for example, you said “He’s terrible.”). If the Giants signed DeSclafani to a $40M contract early this offseason, would that mean that every reclamation project would also have to get $40M+? By your logic, it would seem so. I’d argue if it was a gross overpay (vs your typical free agent overpay), most teams would say “that was dumb of the Giants, and we’re not paying over $X for Jansen or Chapman.” But they didn’t. Because they were always asking for more than the $62M Melancon settled for.
4) I realize I’m talking to a child or an irrational fanatic, because at the end of the day you’re saying Melancon is terrible. Overrated? Overpaid? Overhyped? Not as good as other closers? No. You’re saying he’s terrible. As if he needed to fight for a roster spot in 2017, rather than sign a lucrative free agent deal. Please.
I need to remember that your first comment wasn’t inviting discussion or a good-faith debate about the bloated closer market four years ago… it was essentially “He’s terrible” and LOL GIANTS BAD AND NOW PADRES BAD TOO LOL MY TEAM WON AND I LET THAT GET IN BRAIN’S WAY OF DOING THINKS
Nuance and rationality don’t appear to be in your wheelhouse, and you’ve set the market for this conversation apparently, so instead I’ll just say “BOO HISS! YOUR TEAM BAD, MY TEAM GOOD! BELLINGER IS TERRIBLE, BOO! HISS! BOO HISS!”
Brew’88
2020 will be remembered as a terrible year for brains also
TonyGwynnSD19
@Pads fan I hope Melancon finds a spot in the pen. But market value is established based on the dollar amount of the first contract signed. Not on player asking price or other speculation.
15..5 vs 17.2 Million ? that’s comparable. It’s not ‘substantially different’ as you stated.
everyone knows that Melancon was a ridiculous overpay by a stupid GM.
Not a clever name
The Giants were still considered competitors at that time and had a massive payroll already so after the 2015 issues with closers and the playoff loss to the clubs they were looking like a guy in an Armani suit with a pair of Walmart shoes, they had a decent reason to believe that fixing the closer position with one of those three could deliver a shot at another even year WS. I don’t think many fans would have been happy if they struck out on the closer market that offseason. I may have been the one exception as after 2015 I was wanting to see them tear it down and still wish they had. The return for Madison and posey could be in their sophomore campaign in the majors last year instead of will be 2022/23 before they have any relevancy at best.
Nate Colbert
Joust? You are not special or knowledgeable. Just turd who needs sunlight.
BasedBall
Great job adding context.
The reliever market was too heavy and shallow in depth that season.
If I remember correctly.
Pads Fans
Melancon FOUND a spot in the Padres pen. That is not in question. And for a very reasonable sum.
As others have pointed out, that is incorrect.
A 10% difference is substantial.
Hindsight is 20/20 but foresight is not. Not everyone knew when he signed that he was overpaid. Just look at the stats.
1.93 ERA 131 saves, 202 ERA+ in the 3 years prior to signing his big contract and he was one of the best closers in baseball in 2016 with 47 saves. That was one year after leading baseball with 51 saves in 2015. .
He was one of the best relievers on the market and at that time relievers got paid. He got paid.
That GM is still employed by the Giants today and had a job as a GM in MLB. That means, by definition, that he was and is more qualified to make that decision than you are.
Pads Fans
I blew it. The middle pitcher listed had a 1.64 ERA in 2016 with 47 saves which was 2nd in MLB and a MLB high 67 GF appearances.
Paul Griggs
Dude, everyone knew what contracts Chapman and Jansen were seeking and that set the market. Don’t let your ego hit the door on the way out.
iverbure
Wow 10-8 round if I’ve ever seen one. 2020 doesn’t appear to be answering the bell either and this one is all over!!!!
SalaryCapMyth
@iverbure. You will be happy to know I pictured a boxing commentator calling the action of a fight when I read your statement. >=))
damascusj
The irony talking about other teams bad closers when you’re a dodgers fan
chicoescuela
2020 is still upset they gave his team a WS trophy that was scaled to 1/3 of the normal size
Balk
Not a clever name….there was no return for Bum as no team would’ve given anything for him. Posey I believe has a no trade clause. So saying what could’ve been on a return for people you can’t move is wishful thinking.
Kevin28786
Dodgers fan getting really cocky after winning 37% of a World Championship, I see…………LMAO
scottn59c
He was pretty awful on that contract with the Giants, I’ll give you that. But SF was able to cash him out for the last of that contract, which was pretty phenomenal.
Pads Fans
Groundball pitcher in a season in which the ball has been deadened by MLB. Sounds like a smart call by the Padres with limited risk since the price tag is so small.
UGA_Steve
Yeah. The Dodgers really tore into him in the playoffs didn’t they.
He’s better than Jansen at this point, and probably much cheaper. Just because he was overpaid previously doesn’t erase that.
arthur blank_for owner
here we go @UGAsteve….we lost Melancon, O’day, Greene, etc. and Will Smith a question mark. We’re going to have a glaring hole before the season starts we all clearly see and then will scramble at deadline trying to fix it with cheap parts. Its beyond me why AA can’t address all 3: SP, RP, and the lineup in the offseason. Its always just 2 out of 3, just shuffle the holes around smh
meckert
All of this jousting/fencing/pissing over a second tier relief pitcher? Boys, boys, go clean up your rooms and get ready for dinner!
DestructoCiD
Braves can never put it all together, when they finally did last year they still blew it. Curse of Richard Jewell.
maximumvelocity
A prime example of why it’s fooling to pay top dollar for a closer.
Balk
2020WorldChampions**** San Francisco didn’t foolishly pay Melancon Chapman/Jansen money. His stats were pretty comparable to both those closers at the time of signing and it was the Giants who lost out due to injuries, not poor performance. Get a clue. You forgot to add the asterisk next to your 2020 world champion name too. Win a real 162 game championship before you boast about a title. It was weak.
maxbaseball09
Rosenthal PAINNNNNN
Loling @ you
Rather have rosenthal or Yates.
LordD99
Hates has already signed.
Eatdust666
Yeah, but he’s just saying that he would’ve rather had Yates.
VegasSDfan
@Tattedmama, Yates pitched in 6 games last year and was shut down due to injury.
He had bone chips removed from his right elbow and was shut down for the season.
He signed a 5.5 million dollar deal with the Jays
HalosHeavenJJ
I thought his ground ball tendencies and likely low contract might have fit Minasian’s model here. Padres just keep getting better, though.
Halo11Fan
Perry has a plan? The 8th inning guy has a greater than 2 to 1 fly ball to ground ball rate.
When a right hander faces Claudio he hits like Wally Joyner+
Joyner as an Angel (287/350/450)
Claudio against RH (305/356/442)
Iglesias has 40% Ground Ball Rate.
Other than hoping and praying, I don’t see his plan.
Angels & NL West
Halo, who is the 8th inning guy you are referring to with the 2 to 1 FB to GB rate?
Halo11Fan
Angels and NL West
Roster Resource has Mayers as the 8th inning guy.
2019 22% Ground Ball Rate
2022 33% Ground Ball Rate.
Am I misreading that?
Out of 158 pitchers who threw 30+ innings, his rate was the 18th worst.
Angels & NL West
Perry would be a hero if he signed Rosenthal, but I fear its not in the cards. He and Iglesias would make a nice backend.
Halo11Fan
If Perry signed Rosenthal, his questionable off-season would be a lot less questionable.
dirkg
The 2002 Halos won the WS for a multitude of reasons – one being their strong bullpen. They had avg starters with a strong 6-9. Innings. They have yet to replicate this success and signing a guy like Melancon in a non closer role would have been a step in the right direction. ..Sigh…
Monkey’s Uncle
Always happy for Melancon, enjoyed his time in Pittsburgh and have rooted for him since. Glad to see him join a stacked Padres team, Preller continues to impress.
bapthemailman
I also was a big fan of his while with the Pirates. Hope he does well with the Padres.
Jimbobroy
My 91 year old mother who passed away two years ago was a huge Pirate fan and never miss a game on TV in her later years. She called him Dancin Melancon because of the way he rocked on the mound before going onto his windup!
Braves20
Great nickname! My favorite Melancon stat will always be the number of homeruns he caught in the Braves pen during the 2020 postseason (2) versus the number he gave up (1) during the entire season. Gonna miss him and that rocking on the mound.
Rangers29
This is a big hit to the Braves. Hopefully they can land Rosenthal because Melancon was a huge part of their pen recently. The Yanks also need to delve into this market some before it dries up. Props to the Padres; this is a good move.
j_butte
I think Martin, Minter, and Smith are more than capable of closing for the Braves. Maybe even Matzek.
Fred McGriff
@j_butte
I agree, they are “capable”, but they are not closers, and you don’t put any of those guys into that role to weaken your options in inning 6,7,8….
TmanTheGoat
You do realize that smith was a closer for the giants and minter was the closer for the braves in 2018, right?
hyraxwithaflamethrower
Seems like the Yankees need more rotation help than BP help. Kluber and Taillon aren’t sure things to even be healthy, let alone effective. Severino returns mid-season, but may also not be effective. They have guys like Garcia and Schmidt who aren’t proven. There are just a whole bunch of question marks after Cole. The rotation could be quite good…but it could also be a true ace and a bunch of #4s and 5s.
oldmansteve
Yanks should go hard on Paxton or Walker. Only two proven rotation pieces left.
VonPurpleHayes
Yanks are not touching Paxton. Guy was injured every week while there. They aren’t going to be burnt again.
DarkSide830
Yankees need a full rotation on the IL?
Braves&Chargers
Barely registers as a hit to the Braves
DTDATL
As the article states, there are red flags with Melancon. Every time he took the mound, I was nervous as could be. He’ll be better in a non-closer role. The Braves have plenty of options and guys like Greene and Rosenthal are still out there to be had.
Appalachian_Outlaw
It’s not crippling. The Braves have a deep bullpen. If they had to part with someone I’m perfectly fine with it being Melancon. The Braves don’t specifically need a closer, they could probably just stand to add one more RHRP. There are still many available.
hyraxwithaflamethrower
I wish Reinsdorf was as aggressive as the Padres’ ownership group. The Padres had a deeper farm with which to work, but Sox had more room before the CBT. Too bad Reinsdorf will never spend like he’s in a big market.
Good for the Padres, though. I don’t see them taking the division, but they do have a realistic shot at beating the Dodgers in a 7-game set. I hope that happens.
its_happening
Padres aren’t playing around.
Longtimecoming
40 is full though right? Can this wait until Clev is transferred to 60 day or do we have to DFA someone?
dvmin98
Once ST starts, I think they can put people on the 60…likely Clev, Espinosa and maybe Strahm (knee surgery).
Longtimecoming
If they have to wait for ST to move to 60 thena DFA must be in works or they delay this physical and announcement for a week? If DFA probably Javy or Mateo. I don’t think either makes the 26 but would rather keep Mateo for a few weeks. I was not aware of Strahm being a 60 candidate – please provide a link – and Espinoza is supposed to be finally cleared I thought?
CNichols
Strahm had knee surgery in November but was expected to be ready for Spring Training last I heard. Espinoza is also supposedly healthy (I’ll believe that when I see it though).
Wingenter had Tommy John in July so him and Clev are the 60-day candidates at the moment.
Longtimecoming
Forgot wingenter had surgery but still can’t transfer to 60 until next week, I think so they have to delay the signing or DFA.
Win and Clev will open 2 spots next week though for sure. Mel gets one of them. Maybe Rosie gets the other.
OldSaltUSNR
@Longtimecoming
Javy Guerra has too much potential upside, with only a handful of professional baseball innings on the mound. His 97MPH+ stuff and 84 mph change-up will interest someone.. Because of the number of pitchers without options, he could be a trade candidate, i.e. a guy the Padres might need to move, but who could bring back something in return.
Moving Mateo doesn’t help the bullpen situation, and I believe he still has options, i.e. no reason to DFA him. Tim Hill might be a candidate to move, again, he as enough value to bring a return, but he’s still mostly a LOOGY.
Whatever the case, EVERY pitcher on the 26 and 40 man roster will EARN their spot in Spring Training. There’s enough quality arms that AJ Preller won’t have to settle for less than the best.
Longtimecoming
Hey, I’m an “old salt USN” too! Mateo is out of options. Mateo is not a trade candidate and won’t make 26 out of ST so, he is just hanging on until we need to DFA him. I agree Javy should be a trade candidate for his potential and line I said, he will go somewhere and be successful / maybe ultimately a closer. He has to find a home where he can have a spot and chance though, ie bad team with weak pen. So, yes a trade as opposed to DFA but if no trade, then realistically, absent a trade or injury to another reliever, he doesn’t make 26 this year out of ST so, for that reason for right now, I say he is a DFA candidate. Hill has options and like you say, he is a LOOGY. I still think they delay the signing u til they can move people to 60 day IL to free up spots.
SDHotDawg
Neither Guerra nor Mateo have shown anything. Especially Guerra. It’s foolish to carry any player for his “potential.”
Billy Baroo
With 10 teams having near-zero chance at the playoffs, we should get “something” for Mateo. He could be an entertaining player, like Eric Owens so many years ago. Hey, Mateo stole four bases today! Pay no attention to the final score!
Don’t see a much bigger market for Guerra. Yeah, he throws hard. So did Christian Bethancourt after he took up pitching. Maybe he and Mateo get packed together to Texas, Detroit. etc.
Cash seems a more likely return than a player. I believe some people overestimate Preller, acting as if he’s always chosen diamonds, but he’s succeeded enough that other teams may balk at giving up a rookie league lottery ticket. What does Preller see that we missed?.
I don’t say this in a cocky way. We Padre fans spent decades hoping for Rule 5 guys and other longshots to stick. Wasn’t that long ago that we carried three Rule 5 picks. It’s nice to be on the other side for once, no matter how long it lasts.
DrDan75
I would guess it would be Wingenter or someone like that. Melanchon is a decent pickup if he’s healthy. I’d rather have Rosenthal though.
Longtimecoming
I think Wingenter has options though as opposed to Javy. You have to keep the guy with ability to travel back and forth between AAA as opposed to Javy that really has a slim chance of sticking in 6 weeks.
OldSaltUSNR
Javy had just pitched a handful of single A innings in 2019, before they brought him up at the end of that year. He got only a few innings in 2020, as well. He just hasn’t had much time as a pro pitcher (converted INF in 2019). He was just thrown into the fire, because he was out of options.
I expect him to be better in 2021. He has a live arm and decent, improving control. He might earn his way on to the Padres roster, but failing that, he’ll be on a MLB roster somewhere.
beersy
I agree with rather having Rosenthal, but he must be looking for top dollar and prioritizing money over winning, which I cannot blame him for.
The Padres payroll is stretched pretty thin right now and being able to get a guy like Melancon to slot in somewhere at the back end could really help this bullpen.
If Rosenthal and Melancon end up signing for roughly the same AAV and years, this move doesn’t make a ton of sense though.
Jasona9
beersy, I agree with what you wrote. I am interested in seeing what the Padres are giving Mark Melancon, because AJ Preller let Kirby Yates get away to Toronto for 5.5M a year plus incentives. I have heard the Braves are the rumored landing spot for Trevor Rosenthal. This makes sense since the Padres are signing Melancon. Trevor has to command more money than Mark! AJ is on a budget now…..his ‘wad’ has been blown…LOL
OldSaltUSNR
AJ Preller can spend up to the luxury tax limit. The Padres owners have demonstrated no financial constraints limit Preller, proving the value is there.
However, AJ won’t do that. He’ll always keep some $$$ and prospects in the kitty, to use on targets of opportunity. Yes, Preller has built the team out, the team he wants to see compete in 2021. Yes, it can always get better, and must, to beat the Dodgers in our own division.
No, Preller hasn’t “blown his $$ wad”, or anything like that.
Jasona9
OldSaltUSNR, I was just joking around with the “blown his wad” comment. I would have assumed that AJ would rather resign Rosenthal than sign Melancon. Since the Padres are obviously OUT on Rosenthal it can be assumed that Rosenthal’s asking price is too high. I see your point, it’s not just about a players “asking price”, it’s also about their “value”. Maybe AJ could have signed Rosenthal, but didn’t see the value of over-paying him so he went in a different direction. Regardless of all that, I have been a Padres fan for a LONG time and have never seen such a financial investment in the team. I am proud of AJ and the Padres ownership for going ALL IN. .
Pads Fans
Its not official yet. Its dependent on the physical which can take as long as they want it to.
jdgoat
Well that’s a guaranteed career resurrection.
ziggydoc
Braves caught slacking here, hope they have a good backup plan, wild child Jackson hasn’t stepped up.
MasterCal
Will Smith is probably the closer now
RunDMC
Nah, it wasn’t a given he’d be returning. It was a good run for ATL, but they paid quite a bit for it. Martin, Minter, Will Smith all have closing experience, with Martin my guess as the favorite (mainly because he’s been dominant and a RHP). I don’t see Snit fielding a southpaw as a closer a majority of the time.
DarkSide830
yeah I’d guess Martin takes most of the saves but I think their group is balance enough where they may not have a single designated closer
bravesiowafan
@darkside for some reason snitker hasn’t given Martin much of a chance at closing. Not to mention we paid top dollar last year for will Smith to close for us. I expect a big turnaround for smith considering he had no ramp up time and missed most of the first month with covid.
bravesiowafan
How can you say they were slacking when we don’t even know how much this contract is for???
99 Captain Judge
Wow Melancon is still kicking? He was supposed to replace Mariano Rivera when he retired. A former Yankee farm hand. He was in the Lance Bergman trade years ago.
linckage
Ingmar?
RunDMC
Melancon would be The Seventh Seal.
differentbears
Padres making it clear they’re playing B&W chess with this move.
Dad
That’s why I never liked him, he was a
Yankee. Once you wear pinstripes, they never come off!
towinagain
Love this move! Always been a Melancon fan!
alwaysgo4two
……..and in other news, the Padres have received permission to have a 40 man MLB roster so that they can continue adding any available player left who’s still breathing.
OldSaltUSNR
@alwaysgo4two
LOL! There was a baseball analyst evaluating the Padres farm system a couple of years back, when the Padres were just stacked, with top tier SS prospects, a list topped by Fernando Tatis, Jr. I’m not exaggerating. He was talking and then he paused, and said, “Well, I guess Preller’s strategy has been ‘just sign ALL of the shortstops.”
The Pads really had a string of good fortune (and wise choices) with middle infielder prospects. But yeah, sometimes it seems like Preller is everywhere and anywhere, signing guys 24/7, like a juggernaut. Most of us fans have gotten over the AJP jitters, where we thought every FA signing would be a crippling bust, and every prospect traded, the beginning of a fire sale. We waited a LONG time, maybe a little too long, for 2021. The owner Ron Fowler kind of gave the game away in 2020, when he said that the Padres had just finally paid off the debt accrued when the team was purchased. The two departing owners, Moores and (failed bid) Moorad, took and split $400M of the $1000M ($1B) twenty year TV contract, and took it out the door with them, when they sold the club. They new owners bought a lot of debt, to get the deal done. The seven year drought was a combination of investing in the farm and reducing debt. They couldn’t have done a Manny type deal in 2016-2018, if the farm had been ready, and they needed the couple of “extra pieces” that Preller’s been picking up over the last couple of years.
So, we don’t expect a future fire sale or rebuilding effort any time soon. While most of the MLB talks about the Padres “window”, that’s not how they’re operating. They are following the Cardinals model as much as anything, drafting well, signing international talent, developing the prospects, and putting a competitive team on the field every year, without the “tanking-rebuilding” efforts. Most of the league’s non-Padre fans don’t understand this.
The Padres are “built” for the long term. They are here to stay at the top of the pecking order, if things continue on plan. In this, we trust AJ Preller, that he can get this job done.
609Collectibles
Like his experience, especially postseason experience which I think the Friars could use down there.
bbatardo
I like it. They needed another late inning option and he has pitched pretty well the last 2 years.
letsgopadres
Although I’m glad to see them add to the bullpen, this is not the signing I was looking for.
HBan22
This must mean the Pads are out on Rosenthal. Too bad, I wanted to see them bring him back. Him and Pomeranz formed perhaps the best 1-2 bullpen punch in baseball down the stretch last season, besides Devin Williams/Josh Hader. That being said, at least they addressed what was seemingly their final need in one more solid reliever.
Jasona9
HBan22, Trevor Rosenthal must be seeking more than AJ Preller has left to spend. The Braves are rumored to want Rosenthal! Given how poorly Kirby Yates pitched in 2020 before his injury, Mark Melancon could be an upgrade over him.
OldSaltUSNR
@Jasonag
It may be about value as much as just the dollars. Certainly AJP respects both Yates and Rosenthal, but he also has a good sense of what’s available coming up through the farm system. Rosenthal certainly wants a longer term commitment than Preller intends to make, maybe 3-4 years. Yates signed for a couple of years, but at his age and with a recent history of arm issues, Preller may simply have felt that making a bet on Yates was too high a risk.
I don’t think Preller is budget constrained, AT ALL. The owners have pretty much said “yes” whenever Preller has presented a large dollar deal. However, Preller doesn’t intend to be over extended up and to the luxury tax, either. He’s an opportunist, and to take those targets of opportunity, he needs to have payroll available, and/or prospects to trade. That flexibility requirement more than any fixed dollar amount, is what constrains him.
Preller consistently talks in terms of “match ups” and “value”. His approach to signing a closer isn’t just old school baseball instincts or new school stats, it’s based entirely upon the value assessment of each given deal. If one can say anything about Preller, his ability to accurately assess valuation has been pretty keen.
beersy
Preller & Co. seem really high on Adams, who I have a feeling is the teams closer of the future. Another top notch closer out of nowhere would seem right in line with the way the Padres have done things since Hoffman left.
bravesfan
What’s the financials? If the Braves could have gotten him for $5m then I’ll be upset they didn’t pull the trigger. We still need an arm or two in the bullpen and MM should/would have been a solid cheap option. Guess more to come,
DTDATL
Melancon isn’t a big loss. He’s not dominant and doesn’t strike people out like he used too. Plus, they have plenty of in house options and some of their young arms will be pushed to the bullpen as well.
Jasona9
bravesfan, as a Padres fan I am curious about the financials myself. I do not believe they are known yet. The Padres let Kirby Yates get away to Toronto for 5.5M a year plus incentives. Kirby didn’t pitch well in 2020 before his injury, so I think Melancon would be considered an upgrade. My guess is Melancon will get more than Yates, but certainly less than Rosenthal will get. The signing of Mark Melancon means that Trevor Rosenthal was OUT of the Padres price range. I read rumors that the Braves are going after Rosenthal. Good luck!
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Padres continue to stack. Dodgers will be tough though.
Longtimecoming
I see a lot of late inning 1 AB decides the game situations between Pads and Dodgers where games can go either way late. Pads stacked with former / current closers – I like their chances.
Rsox
Padres get a new Closer and add to an already strong bullpen. Guerra is likely the odd man out unless they trade one of their relievers since Melancon makes eight and they can only carry 13 pitchers on a 26 man roster.
Longtimecoming
Good problem to have. If they can’t delay the signing to get to where they can use the 60 day then yes, Javy is the choice and good luck to him and watch him follow in Matt Bush (I feel the cringe from all Pads fans at the mention) footsteps where he signs elsewhere and gets time / spot to develop into a closer.
los_leebos
Ugh and then Matt Bush had the ABSOLUTE GALL to go and have a productive season with another team. By 2015 I had forgiven him, but then he had to go and throw 61 innings of 2 ERA, 1 WHIP ball with a k per inning in 2016….what a JERK! Mission Bay sucks!
Spare Tire Dixon
I’m not even a Padres fan, but it is getting REAL hard not to pull for these guys next year. I love how they are going all in while others are wringing their hands.
Jasona9
Spare Tire Dixon, Sure, root for the Padres! They are a good up and coming team, and one of only six that have never won a World Series. Not only that, but San Diego is the last major US city without a national championship.
sdhitman19
Ah but they win every major championship for their beautiful city, great tacos, craft beer, tubular waves and did I mention the weather.
OldSaltUSNR
… well, then there is ALSO the traffic. San Diego’s a beautiful place, but if you have to travel at covered-wagon speeds 24/7 to get to any place, it just isn’t worth it. I bought and used a motorcycle to “lane split” and get around for the last 4-5 years I lived there, but eventually decided that it just wasn’t worth the stress. I moved to Northern Idaho, and love everything about it, including four season weather (well, not necessarily today 10F with a 20 MPH wind, one of the coldest days of the year, but I don’t miss the 3 weeks of heat and humidity in North County SD, either).
BUT ……………..
… then California moved to Northern Idaho, $500K+ homes, bumper to bumper traffic with shinny new Idaho plates on their California style cars, lol, I’m considering moving to Montana, or someplace else “more desolate”.
Jasona9
OldSaltUSNR, I am a San Diego native that has also lived in Los Angeles, Seattle, and Portland, OR. Traffic can get BAD in SD, but it’s WORSE in those three cities. I’ll take San Diego any day……
sdhitman19
One of the unexpected benefits of Covid is the work force being put on work from home status and the clear freeways. I find it no trouble theses days with traffic. And did I mention how beautiful it is in San Diego.
ukpadre
Have you tried somewhere really desolate like the moon? Or maybe Camden Yards?
I Beg To Differ
Thinking outside the box, Padres have some options.
Trade Campusano. They have Nola and Caratini under contract for 3+ more years and he could help restock the farm with guys a few years away not eligible for rule 5.
Wingenter could be moved to 60 or DFA. Clevinger moved to 60.
Jorge Mateo or Brian O Grady could be gone given the present of Profar and Kim
Reggie Lawson, Mason Thompson, Javy Guerra, Taylor Williams could be traded or DFA.
Deleted_User
They aren’t going to DFA Wingenter when they are a few weeks from simply being able to hide him on the 60-day IL. And they certainly aren’t going to DFA Reggie Lawson or Mason Thompson the same offseason that they protected them from Rule 5. If Preller wasn’t willing to expose them to Rule 5, he most certainly isn’t going to be willing to expose them to outright waivers.
I never saw the point in trading for Jorge Mateo in the first place. Especially when he cost a prospect who was in their top 20.
I Beg To Differ
“Wingenter can be moved to 60 OR DFA”
“Reggie Lawson, Mason Thompson…..could be traded OR DFA”
Thanks for addressing 50% of the statements.
Already pointed out Wingenter could be moved to the 60, but even when healthy he’s shown to be a reverse platoon arm. Better against lefties than righties.
R – .234/.350/.387
L – .143/.267/.270
And Lawson or Thompson could be traded to make room on the 40. Which, I already said.
Deleted_User
DFAing Wingenter, Lawson or Thompson was never in theory. They’re not going to DFA a guy who they are this close to being able to stash on the 60-day IL or two guys who they just added to the 40-man roster because they didn’t want them to be exposed to Rule 5.
OldSaltUSNR
That’s nuts.
Thompson is one of the most promising arms, made great strides in 2020, and is more likely to be pitching from the Padres bullpen, then say, the Padres keeping Tim Hill. He’s a strong starting pitching prospect, but won’t slot into that role due to the depth of Padres starting pitching (e.g. the vets, plus Gore & Weathers).
Lawson was an a rising trajectory before his TJ surgery; no reason to expect the Padres to sacrifice him anymore than Anderson Espinosa.
Wingenter is off the roster for the year due to TJ. No way he moves. He has an electric arm.
Per your earlier comment, Campusano is the ONE promising catching prospect that the Padres have held on to, while moving about 36 other prospects, including two promising low minors catching prospects. Campusano is going nowhere.
los_leebos
Not in the mood for a deep statistical dive so i could be way off here, but i feel like Melancon might be the Matt Cain of Relievers, in that he never has really pretty under-the-hood numbers and has often been predicted to regress, but then just consistently outperforms his peripherals in terms of effectiveness to the point where you have to consider that he isn’t just getting lucky across a whole career, but that he actually has something figured out on how to consistently retire batters without eye-popping numbers..
Pads Fans
Ground ball pitchers like Melancon are not loved by the advanced statistics. They just get out after out without the sexy strikeouts those metrics love.
MLB is deadening the ball in 2021, so ground ball pitchers will be even more effective.
jonnymac2for1
What the what????
I hate this.
Doxie
Melancon is a gritty battler, amazing he has closed so well for so long, looks like you could grab a bat and have a chance hitting off him.
I have liked him since his days in Tucson with the UofA, has made a fine living and has lasted a long time.
Drove me nuts as a Brave fan but best of luck Mark.
OldSaltUSNR
@Doxie
Like Zach Davies last year. Throws nothing but junk, nothing over 90 MPH, but all he did was win. Not a TOR type (per his playoff troubles in 2021), but solid #4 or #5. I was unhappy to see him go, but hopefully Yu Darvish is worth it. (It’s amazing how much additional value a couple of extra wins is worth, but considering that there are ONLY 5 starting pitching slots, it’s not about how many wins a guy can get over another guy, but how many wins that pitching slot can get, period.)
Deleted_User
Not sure “deep” is the word I would use to describe the Padres’ bullpen.
Smelly_Cobb
How would you describe it professor
Deleted_User
If I were to use the analogy I want to use I’d probably get banned
Smelly_Cobb
There’s only one way to find out..
Longtimecoming
Instead why don’t you list all of the pens that are deeper and your reasons why? It shouldn’t take long.
I Beg To Differ
Yes. Give us a list of your bullpen rankings for 2021.
This should be entertaining.
Braves20
Cannot believe the Braves let Melancon get away. All he did in the postseason was go 0 (as in runs) for three series. Good for the Padres; they get a ground ball machine. Bad for the Braves as they now have to rely on guys like Smith and Martin to close – guys who give up homers at the most inopportune times.
Jasona9
Braves20, As a Padres fan, I am happy to have Mark Melancon. I have read rumors that the Braves are the front-runner for Trevor Rosenthal. Good luck, he was obviously too rich for the Padres blood….
OldSaltUSNR
@Braves20
re: ground ball machine. Given the quality of the Padres INF defense, that’s probably one of the key reasons Preller went to Melancon. He fits the 2021 Padres.
jeffblauser
This is actually good news for the Braves. Never once trusted this dude to close a game. Now please get rid of Luke Jackson and bring back Shane Greene
Dennis Boyd
I was worried the Pads were going to sign him once the Rosenthal re-sign was taking too long and looked unlikely. I watched him close for the Giants regularly and he wasn’t good and was even very lucky to be not good. I hope I am wrong but I would have much preferred reunions with any of the 3 last Padres closers (all of whom were available: Rosenthal, Yates, Hand).
Jasona9
PhDPad, The Brad Hand for Francisco Mejia Trade was one of the WORST in AJ Preller’s tenure. As great as it would have been to get Brad back, it was always unlikely since the Padres already have a LH Closer in Drew Pomeranz. Mark Melancon and Emilio Pagan should be SOLID RH compliments to him.
Dennis Boyd
I agree, the Hand trade ended up being terrible (I liked it at first, not knowing how ill prepared Meija was at catcher and how small he is). I was shocked he was the #1 ranked catcher once I saw him play. I agree Hand’s return was unlikely and at 2-3M for Melancon, the deal is not bothering me as it did when it was first announced. That’s 5 Melancons for one Hand!
Brew’88
I knew they would pick up another bullpen arm but thought it would be Rosenthal. Oh well. Closer by committee now for sure.
Pads Fans
Padres have an entire pen full of guys with no minor league options. Look for a big trade with several of those young arms moving to another team coming soon.
Hader?
Deleted_User
The Brewers aren’t trading Hader for a bunch of guys the other team is desperate to get rid of Koamalu.
Pads Fans
Ryan, as usual you are wrong, about everything. The Brewers will trade for the best package they can get for Hader. If those include a couple of high upside relievers with no minor league options they will make that trade.
This is my only account. One of me is more than enough.
So tell us, how many accounts do you have? We know that Harambe and pitcherwins are both you. So which other ones are you too?
Deleted_User
U mad bro?
SDHotDawg
Food for thought: Would you worry about a player being out of options if he were any good?
No.
But if they’re marginal fringe players, then yes.
Deleted_User
Yes and if they are marginal fringe player the Brewers are not trading Josh Hader for them
Pads Fans
Ryan, What are you talking about? EVERY trade includes marginal players and prospects. Usually one headliner and then everyone else is marginal.
So yes, the Brewers WILL trade for marginal players if they trade Hader. Not ONLY marginal players, but MOSTLY marginal players.
Deleted_User
Preller would have to package them with a top 100 prospect or two to pull that off Koamalu.
Hudson6
The Padres have no interest in Hader. Even in they did, they certainly wouldn’t pay more for him than they did for Snell.
Deleted_User
@Hudson6 then the Brewers will keep him.
Hudson6
I’m sure they will. Nobody is going to give the Brewers what they want for him. Nobody.
Pads Fans
One of the things all good teams do is shuttle relievers up and down to the minors. Without good relievers with options, most teams cannot get through a regular season when dings and injuries hit. There have been multiple articles on this site that mention that very fact including this one.
So yes, teams do worry about a reliever being out of options. Very much.
SDHotDawg
The operatve word was “good.” Like you just said “good relievers.” For just one example, Guerra is not good. For another, you make it sound like all teams have a shuttle just for relievers, ignoring the fact that most of the guys riding that shuttle are marginal, even fringe pitchers. That’s why they’re in the minors. And when they get called up, it’s typically because of some sort of emergency on the big club.
There’s a pretty good reason those guys are out of options and haven’t been able to stick on a roster. Contrary to your belief, good teams don’t worry about a player being out of options unless it happens to be a very good player.
Pads Fans
Guerra is exceptional. 97-98 MPH stuff with outstanding movement and spin rates. Guerra just needs time to develop. Unfortunately he just started pitching after years as a top SS prospect with time spent in the majors as a SS and doesn’t have the minor league options to make that possible with a playoff team.
All GOOD teams have a shuttle for relievers. Again, read all the articles written about it including on this site.
Often they are in the minors to start the season to save the big league club money or because they were injured part of last season and need to get the innings in before a call up or simply because they have options and another pitcher doesn’t or any number of things. Its not because they are not good. Playoff caliber teams do not have guys that are not good enough to be major league relievers on their 40 man roster.
All the guys we are talking about on the Padres staff would make the 26 man roster of nearly every other team in baseball. As Dennis Lin said in his article about this very thing, none of them will pass through waivers.
EVERY team worries about relievers being out of options. All of them.
Deleted_User
@Koamalu Guerra is trash. Throwing in the upper 90’s doesn’t matter when you can’t control it and when it’s flatter than the state of Florida.
SDHotDawg
Guerra is NOT exceptional. There are probably 100 guys in the minors who throw 97-98 and even harder. And we’ll never know their names. Why? Because they’ll never learn to PITCH. And you may think it’s OK to use a big league roster spot to develop a player, but “good” teams don’t.
As far as options, I stand by what I said, and your list proves it: only the marginal/fringe players have to worry about it. If a team is worrying about it, that’s a sign of poor roster construction, poor planning, a lack of depth, or all three.
MikeD26
If Lamet is healthy, I don’t see a better team than SD this year ( not even the Dodgers).
Deleted_User
Loooooooooooool
amk1920
Dodgers are significantly better. Unless you actually think Hosmer, Myers and Profar didn’t massively over achieve in a 60 game season.
MikeD26
They are going to play the games , let’s see what happens.
OldSaltUSNR
@MikeD26
That’s the best post on this forum. “On paper” works until opening day. Then “baseball” matters. Reality hits the diamond.
“On Paper”, the Dodgers and Padres will be battling head to head every game they play this year. That is the only true statement one can honestly make. I doubt that there will be any “bullpen days” for either team. Dodger fans will be heading to San Diego, overpaying for every seat that they can get, not because of the weather or tacos or street parties, or watching their team “win easily”, but because San Diego and Dodger baseball will feature the best baseball in the nation.
If I had to pick a team to be “my guys”, regardless of the name on their shirt, I’d go with the guys on the Padres roster. For every advantage the Dodgers have, the Padres have that, or something close to that, plus one KEY advantage. Youth (Latin style) and excitement. Winning is important, but how they play the game, is pure entertainment.
Longtimecoming
Why is it that the Dodger players can never overachieve or be subject to a potential down year? It’s just Myers, Hosmer and Profar? They are the only guys that fit this possibility? Oh, and let’s just say it – AND those horrible Myers and Hosmer contract are a burden. No credit for they were actually a value in 2020? They performed so give credit? All about the hate from LA!
Brew’88
Hosmer completely refined his swing so expect 2020 results in 21. Myers was a top 10 slugger in MLB for 60 games last year and I credit that to being surrounded by a great lineup.
I guess Pham and Paddack and Yates underachieved. Meh
Bellinger, Muncy, Jansen, Seager, etc.. have also had bad years. I guess they overachieve when they play well…
Pads Fans
Tingler said after the season that he felt one of the reasons for Myers success in 2020 was he finally felt comfortable playing one position all season.
1984wasntamanual
So he’ll be like a 2.5 fWAR player? I guess that’s possible, but his hard hit % looks like it’s pretty similar, what’d this swing refinement change?
Pads Fans
Hosmer had a 47% hard hit rate in 2020 and 46% in 2019 so very close. 19.3% of swings resulted in a hard hit ball in 2020 and 16.6% in 2019 so that is a significant improvement, but it seems to me like he was swinging at less pitches.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=b…
He had 7.2% barrels/BBE in 2019 and 10.3% in 2020, so a 30% increase in percentage of balls barrelled up.
In 2019 he had a 4.9% barrels/PA and 7.7% in 2020, so that is a 36% increase in percentage. of balls barrelled up.
He had exactly the same average exit velocity in 2019 and 2020 at 90.8 mph
What Hosmer seems to do better than almost anyone else on the Padres is drive in baserunners. His BRS% (Base Runners Scored) on Baseball Reference is among the top 3 on the team.
Not making judgements on any of them, the stats are just interesting.
Pads Fans
Interesting that 2020 was double the rate of barrels of 2018, his first year as a Padre, and he had an increase to 47% hard hit from 37-38% in 2017 and 2018.
This stuff is fascinating. You can really deep dive into the stats today. Love it
Deleted_User
Hosmer’s bOFA was worst on the team though. That is a much better predictor of future performance.
SDHotDawg
I don’t expect Lamet to be healthy. I think we’ll be lucky if he makes it to mid-June.
Myers? Really, people. The guy has one good 60 game stretch, and he’s suddenly a stud? He has a long history that seems to be getting swept under the rug.
Deleted_User
BuT hE’s A fOrMeR rOoKiE oF tHe YeAr AnD a PoTeNtIaL 30/30 hItTeR!
Deleted_User
Interesting. Keone Kela changed his Instagram description to say “pitcher for the San Diego Padres” then deleted that a few hours later.
Cohn Joppolella
Braves should still be able to snag Greene if they want to.
SimpleJack!
Goooood Pitching 0.o
Guyh
Cute, they still need to sign Syndergaard, Degrom, Hader, Trout, Arozarena, Freeman and Albies to beat the Dodgers.
Edward John Smiths
Hey Wendell. You might want to loosen the tin foil on your head. It’s cutting off the blood circulation to your single brain cell.
Guyh
Melancon is similar to guys like Pedro Baez, Dylan Floro they’re good in the regular season but rocked against the best in the playoffs.
Chill out John smith I’m not your typical Pocahontis
northcountynoble
Melancon gave up zero runs to Cincinnati, Miami and the Dodgers in playoffs last year. How was he “rocked” against the good teams in playoffs? Look up his playoff stats over his career, pretty darn solid and shut the Dodgers out again in 2016. Solid pick up for 3 mil, and absolutely solidifies a seriously talented bullpen.
Guyh
You got me there son, I was referring to Baez and Floro. Those “wow he’s pretty good” type of guys that ends up disappointing you when it matters.
Edward John Smiths
In reading your comments you’re not much of anything.
jim stem
Padres running out some solid experience after the starter. Melancon in the 6th or 7th setting up the hammers is pretty deep.
dvmin98
$3million? S-T-E-A-L
Paul Griggs
Who cares what agent represents Melancon? For Pete’s sake MLB, we’re baseball fans not agent groupies!
mccourtscorpse
Dodger fan but have no idea why anyone would think a 3mil flyer on this guy was a bad thing
sort of surprised Friedman didn’t find a way to sign him and stick him AAA w all those other guys
YankeesBleacherCreature
That’s because Padres has offered him a guaranteed MLB role among many others reasons he signed. You can’t just stick players to the minors unless they have options, agree to assignment, or are rehabbing an injury. I agree that $3M is pretty cheap for him.
Pads Fans
Padres just signed a guy with a 2.85 career ERA for $3 million. Go Preller.
Their pen as of today looks like
Pomeranz *
Pagan
Melancon *
Kela *
Strahm
Morejon
Adams *
Johnson *
Stammen *
Altavilla *
Guerra *
Hill
Castilllo
* = no options
That does not include Baez, Weathers, Espinosa, or Lawson who are all expected to see significant time with the Padres in 2021. To me that looks like one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. The Padres probably start the season with 9 relievers. Unless someone is moved in a trade, Hill and Castilllo may have to start the season in AAA just because they have options. That leaves at least 2 guys that will have to be traded or DFA relatively soon. Maybe as soon as today.
What a great position for the Padres to be in that they may have to trade or DFA a reliever that would make the opening day 26 man roster on 24-25 other teams.
dvmin98
Strahm is going on the DL He said his knee isn’t ready yet. I could see some sort of trade where Stammen is sent packing with us paying 1/2 his salary for a lottery ticket. Guerra could be let go or included in the deal.
HBan22
Would you guys keep Altavilla over Guerra? I feel like Altavilla is the safer bet to be solid this season, but Guerra has a big arm I know.
I’ve also been curious about what Baez’s role will be. Haven’t heard much about him the past year or so, but he was a Top 100 prospect not long ago.
Brew’88
@Hban22. Altavilla hasn’t ever excelled and he’s running out of time to prove himself. Guerra has 99 mph and control but needs to learn how to work hitters = upside. I’d take Guerra or a prospect over Altavilla at this point.
SDHotDawg
Guerra is little more than a “prospect” at this point. So far, he hasn’t shown much ability to get big league hitters out.
Hudson6
I believe Altavilla also throws 99.
Brew’88
I was merely responding to the either or question that was posed. Altavilla is proven….not to be effective. Guerra has yet to prove anything. Frankly I’d rather they not invest too much in either guy.
CNichols
The problem with Guerra is he has only 43.1 professional innings pitched in organized games. 22 major league innings and 21.1 minor league innings. His option situation has put him in a spot where he’s going to have to pitch in the big leagues but he should probably be throwing in AA and developing.
He’s still just 25 and has a rocket arm, but he needs to be somewhere where he can actually pitch innings in order to progress. Best thing for him would be to go to like Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or some non-competitive team that can afford to roster him and just throw like 50 innings this year so he can see what he can do.
SDHotDawg
@CNichols … Exactly right. If we plan on contending, we have to start acting like it. Which means we give up the dubious luxury of letting prospects “develop” in the big leagues. Baltimore or Pittsburgh would be good choices.
Pads Fans
Still need to clear room on roster prior to opening of spring training when they can place players on the DL. Would rather see them DFA Altavilla than Guerra, but can see it going both ways.
SDHotDawg
It’s interesting that your “no options” list includes established veterans. You trying to build a narrative?
Adams, Johnson, and Altavilla are all marginal/fringe guys that haven’t been able to stick. Guerra is just another prospect without options, who hasn’t shown anything in the opportunities he’s had. Preller shouldn’t have brought him up in 2018 for the Mexico series.
Brew’88
I wouldn’t coin Adam’s as fringe, he’s very good but has been held back by injuries.
CNichols
The “no options” list is pretty relevant because while this bullpen is super deep, unless there are injuries in spring training (fingers crossed for everyone to stay healthy), or someone gets moved before opening day, then they can’t really roster everyone that they would want to on the 26 man.
Before his time in Japan I would agree that Johnson was fringe, but he looked very legit last year. 33.8 K%, 3.14 FIP, and 2.70 ERA is a solid production line. If he can produce close to that again thats a guy who can throw late in ballgames.
SDHotDawg
Actually, I’m with you on Johnson. I was thinking of somebody else. But not Adams. He hasn’t been able to stick because he’s wild. A high K-rate doesn’t mean a thing for a reliever if you can’t find the plate. Plus, he’ll be 30 in May, and he’s on his fourth team for a reason.
Brew’88
Wild? He’s only walked 29 guys in his entire career. By comparison Kershaw has 585 career BB.
SDHotDawg
@Brewer88 … You can’t be serious. Really. Do you know how to read stats???
Adams walks 6.2 per 9 IP. Wild. Period.
Pads Fans
Altavilla is wild and yet he has stuck for 5 seasons in the majors. Most of his time missed, like Adams, has been because of injuries.
Brew’88
My stats are correct but I see you missed the point, and the humor.
Pads Fans
LOL.
SDHotDawg
@Brewer88 … Apparently so. Often, the nuance is lost in this type of medium. Plus, I’ve seen worse things stated in earnest on these boards. My bad.
SDHotDawg
Altavilla has NOT missed a lot of time due to injuries. Last year was the first season of his career he didn’t ride the minor league shuttle, aka, The Ping-Pong Express. He simply hasn’t been good enough to stick.
Even in 2018, when he had an injury, he still pitched in 32 games between Seattle and the minors. So no, “most of his time missed” was not due to injuries.
His first call up was in 2016. He pitched in 58 games total (minors + majors)
2017 – 61 games combined
2019 – 46 games combined
2020 – 22 games in a short season.
That’s about what you’d expect to see from a so-so middle reliever.
bravesfan
This deal is stupid reasonable and the Braves should have made it. Wow.
HBan22
Yeah, it’s very confusing. This is a team that was willing to pay Smyly $11 million guaranteed, yet wouldn’t bring Melancon or O’Day back for one year at $2-3 million each, when they have a very clear need for right-handed relief pitching. I might have rather had Melancon, O’Day and Duvall over just Smyly.
YankeesBleacherCreature
They chose to prioritize SP. It takes two to tango so maybe Melancon took a lesser offer with the Padres for a chance to win. We’ll never know.
SoCalBrave
it’s actually $3-5 million, not $2-3 million.
hoof hearted
WOW, some good relievers aren’t getting spit for salary.
9.6m in 17′
9M in 18′
20M in 19′
14M in 20(prorate)
3M! That’s like getting busted down to min. wage.
SoCalBrave
3M guaranteed, but could be 5M. I’m pretty sure that was the reason he signed there.
Pads Fans
twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1362115732369268740 He took the lowest offer to sign with Padres.
$2 million for 2021 and $1 million buyout of 2022 option.
SDHotDawg
His previous deal was $62MM. He’s not going broke. It’s still good to see somebody put winning ahead of money for a change.
VegasSDfan
Padres are still in on Rosenthal..
Brew’88
Source?
SDHotDawg
NEWSFLASH — In case you haven’t been paying attention for the last few years, Preller loves to “leak” that he’s “in on” every FA in baseball. It’s almost a standing joke on MLBTR.
need_a_no-no_pads
Padres are still in on “everybody”
Source: Preller’s track record.
HBan22
Their bullpen would be incredible if they brought Rosenthal back. And extremely deep. Seems doubtful at this point, though.
nentwigs
I am neither Catholic or Hispanic. As such, I find the use of the name “Padres” for a MLB baseball team to be offensive. Not only from the spiritual perspective of referring to a team with the name of a specific religion’s clergy but also in referring to that clergy utilizing a specific cultural/ethnic name.
Brew’88
Lol
Pads Fans
This is hilarious. Jon Heyman on why Melancon chose Padres and lowest offer over the Braves..
twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1362115732369268740
Pads Fans
Padres in agreement with Tatis on 14 year 340 million deal
twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1362213917393567…
Deleted_User
Dang! 3x as much as what Bregman got and with a notable injury history. What you think of that Koamalu?
DestructoCiD
Melancon said he wanted to play for a winner. My guess is he saw what happened with the Braves last year and how payroll was cut and doesn’t see the Braves as a winner this year.
Bill M
My guess is that the Braves didn’t want him
jd396
It’s about time the Padres did something this off-season
padreforlife
Exactly yea he didn’t think Braves are winning LoL