The Dodgers have inked a new contract with righty Walker Buehler, but it won’t expand upon the team’s control rights. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links), the deal will resolve Buehler’s arbitration case by guaranteeing him $8MM over the next two seasons.
MLBTR had projected Buehler to earn in the $2.3MM to $3.1MM range for the 2021 campaign. The contract provides a $2.75MM salary along with a $3.25MM rate of pay for 2022. That latter number is obviously light, which is why Buehler will also enjoy a $2MM signing bonus.
The Dodgers gain cost certainty and avoid a hearing with a critical young player. In exchange for sacrificing some contractual upside, Buehler will lock in some serious career earnings and gain some long-term protection from injury.
Buehler will also retain a chance to boost his earnings through escalator provisions. Per Rosenthal, the deal calls for Buehler to earn an additional $500K upon reaching each of six games started thresholds (14, 16, 18, 20, 24, 28). Cy Young voting outcomes can also bump the payday: $1.125MM for a win or $625K for a top-three finish.
The 26-year-old Buehler reached arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player. He’ll have two more arb-eligible campaigns to go after this deal runs out. The sky is the limit on his earning power for those seasons and beyond. Through 365 2/3 career innings to date, Buehler owns a 3.15 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate.
Absolute steal
Huh? Seems like exactly what you’d expect a first year arb player to get…
This is exactly how an intelligently run team with much more money than any other teams run their business. If you have the $ to pay Trevor Bauer $40 or $45million per year then you don’t care if he opts out. It means you don’t have to hand out long term sluggish contracts like Pujols, Upton, Cabrera, Davis, Heyward and what will eventually be Strasburg and Cole.
Sorry, but this makes no sense. Buehler was already under team control for those two seasons. He didn’t give anything away.
Seems like the baseball market is transforming into life-term contracts for elite players and shorter contracts/higher AAVs going forward for the steps below that. I still can’t believe some of those players you named were given the contracts they were and the length. The one I vividly remember from the Dodgers was the CCrawford deal. Turned out to be the biggest dud.
The Dodgers took Crawford’s contract as part of the Adrian Gonzalez deal.
LA had to eat that contract to get Gonzalez.
Still a god awful contract
It also takes a player WILLING to take a short term deal (Trevor) & Buehler is arbitration eligible so a short term deal with guaranteed $$ is a smart move on his part.
Dodgers actually got value from the 2012 trade bringing in Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett…Not many teams could or would have done it. Gonzalez was solid for 4+ years
I don’t really understand this deal. It’s not like Buehler is making more than he would seemingly project to make, nor did the Dodgers need to guarantee him anything while under their control. What am I not seeing here ?
I have read the Warren Spahn book years ago. Great book and I believe in WWII he served with the demolition unit blowing up bridges or was he an engineer responsible for building or rebuilding bridges. It was an interesting book.
@ giantsphan12 In effect, it gives the player a $2M advance on his 2022 salary, and both the player and the team gain predictability and avoids an adversarial arbitration. A lot more is being made of this than is actually here.
Yep, not a big deal. Most likely Buehler is giving up a little bit of low upside to take more now and avoid arbitration. Works out for both sides.
@BlueSkies, thank you for filling me in. Out of curiosity, as I always appreciate your posts, what do you think of the Dodgers signing of Bauer? The upside, regarding his arm and skill set is obvious, but there is a lot of nuance to Bauer’s whole package. Your thoughts?
Warren, don’t forget Nick Punto came to the Dodgers in that trade also. Possibly the key player in the deal!
@giantsphan12 Bauer seems like a luxury but then I guess that’s why they have a tax on such things. I hope the signing doesn’t hamstring them in addressing other needs, especially on the infield, and I wonder what it means for May and Gonsolin. Neither of them should be in the minors at this point but are they really going to stick both of them in the pen? Dunno how this is going to shake out. It seems like something has to give.
@BlueSkies,
Yeah, I agree, Bauer didn’t seem like a necessary signing. Especially before things got figured out at 3rd/Turner. But I was curious what you think about his personality and that potential impact. He has such a strong personality and there are already some strong personalities on the roster that I wonder how you think Bauer may effect the clubhouse vibe. I am jealous of your pitching staff tho, man!!
I was actually kind of surprised that Dodgers were willing to take a chance on Bauer’s personality. Doc is going to have his hands full, that’s for sure.
Yeah, me too. After Mattingly left (and Puig for that matter), it seems like the team has really gelled under Doc’s leadership. With my team ranking third, at best, in the NLWest, your team and the Friars are going
To be fun to watch this year.
Nonetheless, It’s still a steal.
Could probably be the ace on half the teams out there and he’ll settle in as the third with the Dodgers. What a staff, and this kid is the future of this teams rotation.
More than half.
Probably?
he is the number 1 not 3
Well Kershaw is still hummin so it’ll be Kershaw and then probably Buehler
CK gets the opening day prolly, but Buehler gets G1 in a playoff series if they can align it
Having the best pitcher ever be the backup to being down 0-1, or better yet quickly jumping to 2-0, it’s a wonderful luxury. Walker has shown he’s a very big game pitcher already in his own right. He’s had those big must wins in the last 2 years over CK
#1, #3, it simply is meaningless until the postseason. The season will begin with starters picked because of matchups, and as the season progresses, the rotation gets jumbled up because of days off, doubleheaders, injuries, temporary six-man rotations, etc.
Lot of (easily reachable) incentives.
It’s called taking care of your star players
Definitely the smartest thing they could of done. The dude’s a stud. I agree with @padam- comments above.
Most definitely, the smartest thing thing they could have done other than lock him up long-term. Though that is unlikely as Boras is his agent (if I recall correctly).
Check that…Excel Sports Management.
It was just an arbitration seasons buyout, at market rate, with a $2M advance. They didn’t even get an extension out it, like they did with Kershaw during his arb seasons. Nothing much to see here, really.
I think extension talks come at the end of this season
It seems a bit more more nuanced than that, as the second paragraph describes.
He’s super 2. Extension won’t happen till his 3rd year arb, after this contract runs out
Thanks for the clarification Lurking
Good point, though baseball-reference has his last arb year as 2024. Presumably they haven’t picked up on his Super Two status.
It’s mentioned above so I’m pretty confident he has 4 runs thru arb
So at this point LA would have had to sign him for all 4 arb+ at least 1 FA year to gain any extra control. That’s a long time to sign a guy ahead of his control ending, unless LAD was gaining a real likely steal of a value contest
So for them to commit to giving Walker his likely value in that FA year… Walker would have to take a serious discount to have gotten that long of a deal, now. Right? Otherwise why would the dodgers do it?
Simply put. He’s a dodger for 4 more years, already. He’s a high enough risk pitcher where they rather see him perform, and then pay him as a star, than risk he blows up and becomes an albatross contract. They have shown this strat with their superstar young guys in the past.
I fully believe in 2 years time, we will hear about 5-7 year deals at nice AAV’s being discussed. Along with maybe a 4 year deal version with REALLY NICE aav’s, aLa Bauer
You’re right, I misread it. He won’t be a free agent until 2024. If he stays on his current trajectory he could easily be a $35-40M per season player, with the caveat that he’ll be older than average in reaching free agency.
Yep. He was a college draftee who then lost a year to TJS. But Bauer just got 40+45M for 30+31 aged seasons. So age isn’t everything if you can produce just before FA
I really could see buehler following the Bauer models
I remember wanting him so bad in the draft. We took Randolph instead
If you could compare players to their actual peers rather than just first time through arbitration peers it would be much more fair.
Buehler is the ace of a staff with guys making $30 and $40 million this year.
Thats just how it works, gotta prove you can hang. I agree the arbitration system can be barbaric at times but theres no other way to assess talent. I highly doubt teams will ever hand out large contracts after 1 year of great production then be handcuffed with a one hit wonder.
I know how it works. I work in home loans so we compare properties to similar properties, not what the average first time home seller got for theirs. So the model is always funny to me.
Thing is prices go up and down in a real market and players have significant protection against that. Have a bad year and you’ll still likely get a raise.
There should be built in escalators for the year 1,2,3 guys. If your providing teams with mvp or cy young production than the player should be getting some big escalators.
As far as I’m concerned the cy young and mvp top 5 should be getting bonuses 5 mil for first 4 mil for 2nd etc.
No, it’s far more important to bargain over how many chefs each team gets.
@tats
Please give me a barbaric system that pays me millions!
@HalosHeavenJJ…While his playoff performance tantalizes fans about Buehler’a huge upside, consistency throughout the regular season matters. He will overtake Kersh soon as the ace, but he has not done so yet.
Many fans and sports pundits have prematurely tabbed him as the Dodgers’ ace. It’s easy to do when there hasn’t been much competition in the regular season until 2020.
This next season will be an interesting one to see if Buehler can consistently excel(and not just turn it ON in September). LAD have great SP depth, yet they will likely need Buehler to perform throughout the season to take 1st in the NL West in 2021.
Agreed. Buehler has amazing stuff and will likely surpass Kershaw at some point. Maybe this year. He needs to gain more consistency on location though. That is the toughest for younger pitchers. At times, he struggles with his command which leads to high pitch counts/walks and occasionally he gets hit hard when he misses spots and leaves it over the plate. He also at times gets too down on himself judging from body language. He’s a confident guy though and wants the ball in the most critical games. Have to love that about him. If he can put it all together he’s a top 3-5 pitcher kind of guy.
Was hoping this would be turners deal.
I know man. I’ve probably checked this site a total of 3000 times in the last week
Really hope Turner sees the light and the Dodgers lock him in with a 3 yr deal and an opt out on the 2nd
Super prospect Hoese 3B is scheduled to make the team in 2022.
Fantastic news!! Salary is chef’s kiss and you know he’s going to ball out this next season.
Crazy to see what Walker’s salary is and he’s a champion and seasoned playoff vet and Bauer’s salary is close to 40 mill!!! Sports money always baffles me but I’m here for it.
Bauer was a free agent. Buehler is not.
Yeah, totally understand that. I just got to thinking about it and it’s… wow! Just the numbers and financials in sports today. Also, grateful for the arb years.
Fair enough. From some of the comments here you’d think Buehler got his pocket picked by the Dodgers, when what really happened is he got a $2M advance on his 2022 arbitration salary, so now he can go out and buy that big new house and fast car he’s always wanted.
I mean he kinda is a lil bit considering his production if you look at it from the players POV but in the Dodgers grand scheme of things this is exactly what is needed to keep our core for a longer timeframe. And, if you would’ve asked me last season who would walk away with the highest AAV for a season, I know I would not have said Trevor Bauer! You’re totally right though, Buehler is sitting pretty regardless. He will get his payday eventually. I wonder who will be the first billion dollar contract and will it go that high? Since Trout was able to secure the 500. Imagine if he had some rings before that extension. Wonder if it would’ve been higher.
The first amateur pick of the Dodgers’ Friedman era was Buehler, even though it was clear he was headed for TJ Surgery. Gutsy pick and smart, too. Draft for talent. While Buehler deserves all the credit in the world for his talent and rehab effort, he’s probably fortunate that he ended up with the Dodgers due to their commitment to player development. Though I don’t know for sure, it’s a safe bet their methods are different than some other teams. Rehabbing pitchers Alex Wood and Jimmy Nelson spoke about that when explaining why they signed with the Dodgers last winter.
Oh no doubt! I know the Dodgers have an organization that not only rehabs and helps players, but believes in them in the process, which makes a world of difference. Some marriages last, others don’t, and I’m happy the Dodgers gave Buehler the ring
It’s different for pitchers. We have seen some who were truly dominant for a number of years who haven’t sniffed the Hall of Fame due to injury issues. Look at Bumgarner, for instance. If he was doing at free agency what he was doing when he was younger, he would have been the guy getting that Cole contract. As a baseball fan, the Bauer contract doesn’t feel right at all, but timing is everything. For better or worse, he is affecting what Buehler might earn later on. It will be interesting to see what happens if Buehler continues being a post-season master.
I would love to know the inner-workings of that Dodgers system as compared to other organizations. Pre-Covid, the workouts at Dodger Stadium went on all off-season with state-of-the-arts everything. Nice when you can invest in all the best stuff and then have that reputation. It would be interesting to know the cash outlay as compared to other organizations. Ballpark tickets are pricey but people buy ’em. They seem to have it all working. But man, that Bauer contract is so uncharacteristic. There’s a podcast at True Blue LA with Blake Treinen talking about how pumped he is about the Bauer signing because Bauer’s methods are in line with current Dodger practices.
This years example of that was Knebel, I’m sure I spelled that way wrong, but they signed him knowing they wouldn’t have him this year but they’re looking to the future and what he brings when healthy.
Would be interested in the same! And I agree, it does seem uncharacteristic but then again we forget that they were willing to spend that for a mediocre Harper (Relief that did not come into fruition). I think that was a shorter contract proposal as well w a high AAV. Dodgers pockets are so deep, I guess they can afford it. We haven’t seen Bauer in the lens that the organization does yet. Still, the human in me just thinks 40 mil for any player is bonkers. They are playing chess though, so I have to wait and see how all of this unfolds in the next few seasons. Hoping Bauer takes the baseball knowledge and they can develop him into a sustainable elite as he’s only 30 right now. Has to show his quality seasons weren’t a fluke.
Yes! And Kahnle too.
Oh by the way, wasn’t sure if it was clear, but I was just wondering who would be the first billion dollar contract in general, not necessarily saying Buehler could be the one.
Knebel will be pitching all year and Kahnle will be in Dodgers bull pin about July if not before. Very good trade from Brewers of Knebeland signing Kaknle free agent that had Tommy John surgery.
But LAD have now set the bar for what Buehler will be seeking in the future.
The bar for short-term contracts, at least. I think the long-term bar was set by the Yankees with Cole, and my guess is that Buehler will be seeking a contract closer to Cole’s than Bauer’s regarding length.
Buehler strikes me as a guy who could like the 1 year high AAV deal vs long term money
So maybe he’s quite intrigued to see Bauer get 45M in 2022, then this Walker deal just happens to run out following that season. By then, he’s 2 years from FA.
HE’s more likely to give up FA years and the dodgers are more likely to sign a guy with one TJS to a 5 year deal than a 7 year deal, let’s say
In his last eight post-season starts, Buehler has an ERA of 1.21. Entering 2021, it’s not unreasonable to suggest he’s one of the top 12 SPs in MLB. Three of them are on the Dodgers. Six in the NL East. Just two in the American League.
My 12 in alphabetical order. Salary is not a factor. :
Bauer, Bieber, Buehler, Carrasco, Castillo, Cole, deGrom, Fried, Kershaw, Scherzer, Soroka, Strasburg,
These are just my feelings heading into the season. Injuries played a factor in some pitchers being omitted. An exception is Soroka due to his age and my general impression of him. Darvish and Snell are not intentional Padres snubs. Heading into the season, I just don’t see them as desirable as the 12 I’ve chosen. I probably like Lamet better than both. I just want to see more performance and some health clearance.
Did I shortchange the AL? Outside of Bieber. It’s interesting to me that ex-Dodgers Ryu and Maeda would rank way high on any AL list. Greinke, too.
Luis Castillo? The Reds would be nuts to trade him. But if they choose to, Andrew Friedman would offer a nice return 🙂 The fact that the Dodgers signed Bauer tells me Castillo can’t be had.
What are Carrasco’s numbers? Isn’t he coming back from heart ailments? I can’t completely recall what happened to him.
Leukemia. His comeback is remarkable.
Wow! Happy for him, truly. Did he pitch last season? Or did he get traded after coming back?
A dozen starts worth of 2.91 ERA. He’s just a consistent pitcher, turns 34 in March.
That is an incredible story. Don’t follow a lot of the players in his division so I wasn’t sure. As captain obvious above me has said that Google exists but it’s been nice to get some knowledge through conversation. I’ll have to see how the Mets do this year. I have reduced a lot of my social media use while I’m full time at a Uni so this is a nice escape.
An apparent omnipresence spoke into OriginalDodger’s ear and whispered, “Google will help you, if you click, scroll, and read!”
It’s called engaging in conversation
OriginalDodger, engaging conversation is something we need more of.
This is exactly what the cardinals need to try with flaherty, pay the dude, throw some incentives in there, and avoid arb poo tossing hearings.
I’m not sure if this is even remotely possible but I would love to see Flaherty as a Dodger in the future. The reason why I don’t absolutely rule it out is because the Dodgers were able to trade for Mookie Betts after all. You’re a cards fan so you might wholly disagree with me haha
Flaherty is from SoCal and, reportedly, his mother remains an ardent Dodgers fan. I would be very surprised to see the Cards let him get away, but you never know with free agency. If he does choose to test the market, the Dodgers may have an edge over other potential suitors. I expect the Cards to do whatever they can to keep him from reaching free agency, though.
Agree! That’s why I said I didn’t know if it was possible because the Cards would have to let the man leave really. Now that they have Arenado I’m sure they want to see how the team gels moving forward. Still, JF would be a welcomed addition to the Dodgers pitching rotation and staff should it be a potential possibility
@originaldodger oh i think he’s most likely gone and as mentioned he’s a SoCal native, I’d love to keep him but think LAD will make a play in him…now do cards chance it and only end up with a comp pick, or trade this year or next for a decent haul? Most worth will be this year/deadline, but can’t see getting arenado and not wanting to go all out this season.
Going to be an interesting couple of seasons coming up!! Exactly! Cards want to get back into contention. Praying for some Dodger magic
I’m sure Buehler isn’t worried. If this works out he will probably get a massive extension from them in 2023 for like 4 years/$80M or something.
Dodgers pay their guys very well, they’re just smart with their money.
Best run team in baseball at the moment.
MLB’s rules and financial structure has Walker Buehler making $4M this year and Trevor Bauer making 10 times that at $40M. On the same team. Insert head scratching here.
It is a head scratcher, but the way arbitration is set up it makes sense. But to view it in your perspective, you just sit back and say dang imagine being developed into this monster talent and not making more? We have to see how Bauer works out since it is a short contract. With arb, Buehler can gauge how his market can turn out. He’s getting paid either way in the future (barring a devastating injury or regress). Still, you’re spot on. Baseball money is becoming crazier and crazier every season
Crazy? Or just plain stupid? Who is? When we pay $10 for a hotdog? Pay $1,000 + to take me out to the ballgame? $20 parking.
Spoiled rotten country with really messed up priorities. I am an American, a hard core baseball fan and I am saying this.
And the commish wants to shorten the games for TV…….you don’t even get an full afternoon or evening out of it anymore…….STINKS!
A quality product is being diminished in favor of tv profits.
Chalk it up….to a changing industry….. because the old one has died…..
They are dumbing MLB down to appeal to the lowest common denominator, which includes people with short attention spans.
And it’s still the cheapest game in town. That might be the scary part.
Haha yeah don’t even mention Basketball money!! Baseball looks cheap compared
As a Phillies fan, I want to know, how do the Dodgers keep developing talent like this? Buehler would be the ace of the Phillies staff; he is about the number three on the Dodgers. The Dodgers are willing to spend money but they develop talent as well. The Phils minor league system is a hot mess
Dodgers go for high upside arms while Phillies drafted a lot of soft tossers for a number of years- in the particular draft Buehler went in, he slid due to injury issues plus possibly due to his size- while the Phils drafted high school hitter Corny Randolph, whose best case scenario seemed to be a solid hitter with limited power who would end up in left field.
They’re strong to the finish cuz they eats their spinach…
Hearing this concerns me about his health. Wasn’t $3.3 the least he was getting this year if he lost? And up to $4? So he’s giving away next season at $4-5? His arbitration would be more than that. This is odd.
It’s all about getting $8M guaranteed. Financial security.
These are pretty common deals with super 2 guys. They get more money upfront than they would in traditional arb.. Buehler is hitting his 2021 projection+ getting a 2M bonus
Dodgers know what he’ll cost even if he has a phenomenal year, and they can start playing CBT games