Jan. 12: Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report that Preller visited Tatis in the Dominican Republic last week. While that might seem to run contrary to yesterday’s report from Nightengale, ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Preller and Tatis did indeed meet, but no offer has been made. Passan characterizes things similarly to Nightengale, suggesting that Preller & Co. expect talks to take place and that last week’s meeting could be a precursor to earnest negotiations. The Padres are optimistic about getting something done before Opening Day, per The Athletic.
Jan. 11: Reports of an imminent contract extension for Tatis may be premature. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Tatis and the Padres have yet to begin contract negotiations. Both sides remain amenable to an extension, and they are likely to begin discussions before spring training in mid-February, writes Nightengale. There is no rush for the two sides, however, and it remains wholly possible that Tatis will begin the 2021 season without a long-term extension in place.
Jan. 9: The Padres are in talks with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. about a massive contract extension, Dominican news outlet Pio Deportes reports (Twitter link). The deal would keep Tatis in San Diego into the next decade, as the extension is reportedly an 11-year pact worth $320MM. According to both Pio Deportes and NBC Sports Bay Area’s Jessica Kleinschmidt (Twitter link), talks seem pretty advanced, as a source tells Kleinschmidt there is “ink on paper” but the deal still might not be finalized within the next week.
The $320MM figure would make Tatis’ extension the sixth-richest contract in baseball history, dropping teammate Manny Machado’s ten-year/$300MM pact down into seventh on the all-time list. Between these two major deals, hefty contracts for Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and even the recent trades that brought Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to San Diego, Padres GM A.J. Preller and team ownership are again indicating that the team is prepared to spend at top-tier levels.
Hosmer’s deal runs through at least the 2025 season, Machado is signed through 2028 with an opt-out after the 2023 season, and the discussed terms of Tatis’ deal would lock him up through the 2031 campaign. It seems quite possible that the Tatis extension will also include at least one opt-out, as since Tatis only just turned 22 years old, he and his agents at the MVP Sports Group might want at least one crack at entering the market (or extracting more years and money in a renegotiation with the Padres) during Tatis’ prime years.
Tatis is controlled through the 2024 season, via one pre-arbitration year and three years of arbitration eligibility. The Padres famously placed Tatis on the roster for Opening Day 2019, eschewing a chance to keep him the minors long enough for the team to gain an extra year of control over his services — this decision immediately started Tatis’ service clock but gave the Padres more short-term opportunity in terms of getting a star product on the roster to help the big league team.
An extension would essentially make that debate a moot point, and given how Tatis has performed in the majors, one can hardly fault Preller and company for wanting to unleash him on MLB as quickly as possible. Despite battling hamstring and back problems in his rookie year, Tatis has hit .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers and 27 steals (in 36 chances) over his 629 plate appearances in 2019-20. This past season, Tatis earned a Silver Slugger Award and finished fourth in NL MVP voting.
There is obvious risk in committing such money to a player who is still so young, and has played the equivalent of essentially only one full season. That said, it also makes sense for the Padres to take the leap on a player who showed such promise in the minors (much to the chagrin of the White Sox) and has already made a big impact in San Diego’s lineup.
It’s safe to assume that Tatis’ annual salaries throughout what would have been his arb years would be somewhat limited, in order to give the Padres more flexibility in terms of pure dollars while the money owed to Myers, Snell, and Drew Pomeranz gradually come off the books. If Tatis’ big annual salaries don’t kick in until 2025, that leaves only Machado, Hosmer, and possibly Ha-Seong Kim (at an $11MM mutual option) still remaining on the payroll.
The Competitive Balance Tax is the other interesting wrinkle, as the average annual value of Tatis’ deal (a little over $29.09MM) would be counted against the Padres’ tax bill for all 11 seasons, no matter what Tatis made in terms of actual dollars. Assuming Tatis’ extension begins in the 2021 season, San Diego would still have some flexibility under the $210MM tax threshold this year, as their current tax estimate is roughly $165.28MM. Padres ownership also might not mind exceeding the CBT threshold for a season or two if such an expenditure landed the club a “final piece of the puzzle” type of player for a World Series contender.
Hopefully the Mets can sign Lindor before this number comes out because Tatis can really shoot up the price. San Diego’s probably giving him a blank check.
Lindor is going to get something in the range of the Mookie Betts deal. Tatis will not affect that number.
It’s crazy to pay so much for a player to keep them in a team. I don’t really like long term extensions or contracts, but its the team money. If I was a GM the most I would give a shortstop is close to 225 million for a franchise player like Francisco Lindor. Also, I don’t blame Cleveland for trading Lindor because they tried to give him an extension, but Lindor is looking for a contract worth 300-350 million. So, good luck Mets with that.
Mets traded for him already knowing they’d be doing 10 years $350 or so
Mets are in good shape, they have the money to sign Lindor, and if he wants to sign with someone else, there will be the best SS free agents next year.
The smart GM’s realize that you make the best deals when you trade for a player, or draft a great player.. Rignt now the GMs are devaluing the free agent market by making trades instead of signing free agents.
Well it’s usually not the GM that has the checkbook it’s the owner drowning in their billions of dollars
@Francys01 Except the Albies and Acuna extension that was cheap as hell.
I@Burn0820
They’d be absolutely bonkers to do a 10yr 350Million. He’s not Mookie.
“It’s crazy to pay so much for a player …”
There are potential risks and rewards, when paying for any top tier player.
Tatis is an exceptional, possibly once-on-a-lifetime ballplayer. He could have a career ending injury and be gone next year, true. However, the opportunity to extend and retain such a game changing ballplayer is something no team could turn down. Philly couldn’t keep Betts. Cleveland couldn’t keep Lindor. Baltimore couldn’t keep Manny, and Washington couldn’t keep Bryce Harper. The Angels kept Trout by $trip mining their team of enough money to build a winner.
Tatis with the team surrounding him, and the established Padres farm pipeline, is a player that could deliver consecutive playoff wins, maybe even World Series wins. He’s THAT good, and that dynamic.
So, yeah, he’ll get paid, now, and possibly again in 5 or 6 years (re: when like Manny Machado, he’s 27/28 years old and exercises an opt-out). The Padres goal will be to structure his contract with enough disincentive to keep him from opting out. Manny has one in 3 more years, but with Covid and a new MLBPA contract coming, he may already be at top of the market in 3 years. Hosmer passed his opt out date, has had some down years, but reclaimed a lot of value last year, and he hasn’t exercised his opt out. Tatis could be a Padre for life, which is what he said he really wants anyways. The Padres have that kind of history (re; Tony Gwynn, and almost, Trevor Hoffman).
I can see a 1 year contract farewell deal to Pujols coming soon
@Francy
I agree. The point of a long term extension is for the team to receive a discount for offering long term security. If it averages out to $30MM/year, you may as well pay market rate when he becomes a free agent, and wait 4 years to see how his career progresses, both production and health wise. Few players have merited 30MM/yr contracts.
@oldsalt
You are right in that he could be a once in a lifetime talent. He could also be the next Wally Joyner, or Fred Lynn, players who had fantastic rookie years, and became solid regulars after, but not one of the best players in the sport. No offense intended, I would not pay that much after one year.
@OldSaltUSNR Hosmer’s opt-out isn’t until after the 2022 season.
There is no way Hosner opts out, he flat out missed so many catchable balls in the playoff in 2020. Hosner is looking old and below ML average. San Diego will hate his contract from now on.
Hosmer is NOT going to opt out. There is no way he gets a contract comparable to what he has now on the open market.
@DrDan … Agreed. Hos is very comfortable with his contract, and he knows he wouldn’t approach that kind of money on the open market. It’s indicative of what happens with an overpay.
Always trade em with prospects and pay half or something.
Lindor does not deserve Betts money. Mets may give it to him to make him the face of the Cohen era, but he’s not in Betts league. No knock on him, only Trout is in Betts league. But if Betts is a $30M player for the next decade, then 12 yrs/$324 sounds like Lindor’s worth.
If lindor gets anything close to betts it just shows what a good value dodgers got on the betts deal. Betts is wayyyyy better than lindor if lindor gets 350 I’d be amazed
I think it could go either way. Lindor is 5 years older and a 11 year deal for him would bring him to 38 so you can’t expect him to match what taros gets. Yet Lindor is more proven and in prime and a free agent next year which all helps him raise his price too. Very interesting to see should the Mets get to extend him how it matches up to a tatis deal. I think Lindor could average 30 mil but would be great for Mets to be able to structure it higher now and less later to not lock up their books when he is a lesser player like in canos situation. Fun couple weeks ahead with this!
I think this deal would all but assure Lindor getting $30+M/yr.
It’s crazy to pay so much for a player to keep them in a team. I don’t really like long term extensions or contracts, but its the team money. If I was a GM the most I would give a shortstop is close to 225 million for a franchise player like Francisco Lindor. Also, I don’t blame Cleveland for trading Lindor because they tried to give him an extension, but Lindor is looking for a contract worth 300-350 million. So, good luck Mets with that.
Tatis’s money wolnt touch Lindor’s at his age with the ammount of control Tatis already has left.
If Tatis signs this extension this off-season they will effectively be setting the market rate for all those good SS who are becoming FA next year. It’s good to set the market. Does anybody really think that Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story will accept less than Tatis? They will not. Liam Hendricks (Story’s agent) won’t. It is absolutely certain Scott Boras (Corey Seager’s agent) won’t. This may end up being a 2fer for the Padres-they get their man and they screw the Dodgers and Mets at the same time.
Padres will not sign Tatis to even a 200,000,000 contract, it makes no scene, might as well take all the cheap years and then sign him if he is still playing like he is. He probably will not, he is injuring prone in less than 162 games he has missed a lot, only played 84 games in 2019 barely half.
Seems like quite a large contract for a guy with 2 years in MLB.
He’s dumb if this is for after arbitration. Sadly this gonna make Soto extension cost more
I know what you mean because really, he has more earning power than this… but come on, how can one pass up 320 million dollars to be on a team he seems to be very happy with
I know lol im a Nats fan and Soto is better and he is a Boras client lol. Nats need decide hitters first when it comes to Turner and Soto especially after letting Rendon go. Lots of contract coming off book by the time Soto is free agency
Soto is not better than tatis
Soto has been a better hitter so far in his career, but Tatis is much better defensively and on the base paths. I think Soto might end up as the better player when their careers are over, but it will be close.
Acuna and Tatis is a better comparison.
Soto has played in a little less than 200 games more. Your point is invalid
@lowtalker1 yes soto is better than tatis, tatis isn’t a good defender and has 1 and half season of premium production. Soto replaced harper and won a World Series at 19/20 soto slg percent last season was up with bonds without juice. Not close and soto is younger
Tatis Jr was the best defensive infielder in baseball in 2020. baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_aver…
Said by someone who clearly doesn’t watch Tatis, it fact check what he says, and just regurgitates whatever good looking sound bites he hears on the radio and crappy blog posts. At least do some basic research before making stupid statements.
Shhh! Don’t scare him with facts! Let him stay in his safe space.
@tatsumaki thanks for always making me laugh with your “facts”
Tatis is NOT the best defensive infielder in 2020
fangraphs.com/players/fernando-tatis-jr/19709/stat…
Tatis has only played 84 games in 2019 and 60 in 2020. He looks like he could be injury-prone dumb to sign a big contract before he proves he can stay on the field. He also makes a lot of bad plays.
UZR and DRS are based on arbitrary zones. Statcast OAA is based on batted ball speed, feet traveled, sprint speed, and many actual measurements. OAA is real. UZR and DRS are guesses. Tatis was the best defensive SS in 2020.
I feel like an opt out for him after like 6 or 7 years would make sense. He could still hit the FA market a little before 30 and get another big deal.
That… makes no sense for the Padres.
It makes sense for Padres if the deal is backloaded. I can see the first six/seven years being AAV around $25M, then the opt out with the four/five years after being closer to $35/40M AAV. Make Tatis leave the high AAV on the table for a longer term extension/new deal.
He would become a FA at age 25 if he doesn’t sign. An opt out after season 4-6 would make sense and if the contract is heavily back loaded it would make sense for the Padres too.
@hunteralan Tatis only opts out if he can beat his old contract in FA. If he can’t beat his old contract you don’t want him to opt out.
@Pads Fans that makes no sense. With no extension the Padres control Tatis for 4 years. If the opt out is after 4 years the Padres gain no extra years of Tatis. If it’s after 6 they only gain 2. And then all the years after that Tatis only opts into if the Padres don’t want him to. That is how opt-outs work.
Ok Ryan.
Ok Koamalu.
My favorite part is that it’s been 3 years now since the Giancarlo Stanton disaster and he still doesn’t know how opt-out clauses work.
OK Ryan. That’s two of your accounts in one thread. I am proud of you.
You need to stop blaming Ryan for your lies and ill fated predictions and just accept the fact that you got it wrong. Again.
By the way, have the owners paid the players their full, non-prorated salaries for 2020 yet because the season was less than 82 games? And has Alex Anthopoulos been forced to resign yet?
Just wanna be clear in my opinion if I were him I think I could make more if he bets on himself due to inflation.
or he gets hurt and makes significantly less. This makes him one of the top earners in the game and is an absolute no brainer if there is an opt out or two.
Better not have an opt-out. Especially if it’s before the 2025 season is over.
He can’t have an opt out before 2025. He’s under team control through 2025. If he has opt outs, they will be after 2025
@OurPadreWhoArtInSD he’s under control through 2024 at present. And he could opt back into arbitration if the opt out is before 2024. That type of provision has been given. Yasiel Puig for instance.
This is an absurd amount of money for someone that hasn’t even played a full season. Passing this up would be idiotic.
I don’t think it’s possible to pass up $320 million guaranteed at this point in his career. That’s a lot of money, especially for someone who is 22 years old.
If they give him an opt out he still can.
If my 22 year old son turned down a $320M payday for a chance at earning something more, I’d disown him. This sets Tatis and his heirs up for life. It feeds a whole lot of Dominican mouths, which is precisely where Tati will invest his money. He’s a proud son of the Dominican Republic, loves his country, and as a Christian living his faith, will do what Tebow did for the P.I. in the D.R..
Soto with Boras is only ever signing an extension if he gets a record contract.. This doesn’t change that.
I know rn im focused on Trea
And this is why it’s better to be a year early than a year late with these extensions. My god that’s a lot of money.
Thankfully Hahn good with extension timing for position players. No doubt he’ll try w/Giolito since he has put together 2 TOR caliber campaigns.
He very likely ends up being the best of the group, but this makes the Moncada, Eloy, Robert, Acuna, and Albies contracts look ridiculously good IMO
This is a little different from those extensions, as Tatis has already played two years in MLB whereas most of those players were minor leaguers/rookies when they signed their extensions.
he hasnt played 162 games lmao. I know yur excited but his final test is full year
100% agree, which is why I said it’s better to be a year early than a year late. This is an unbelievable amount of money for someone with 143 career games. Great for him and the fans though.
He has played in 143 games. That is less than a full season.
yeah but tbh he can be considered overrated and I dont think as good as Acuna or Soto he had one monster month.
It’s great to be early until you lock the wrong player up because you signed them too early and didn’t know what you really had.
An extreme example would be Jon Singleton with the Astros, 5Y/$10M deal before he ever played in the MLB and the guy only ended up playing like 100 games and hitting .170.
Not saying Tatis is that kind of player, he’s a stud but there’s just a lot of risk in signing early extensions too.
Yeah. That’s why it costs less.
100% worth the risk for an elite talent IMO. Just look at your example. It literally couldn’t have gone worse for the Astros, and they were only out $2M/yr. I’ll take a shot on pre-MLB elite talent (like the Robert deal) 100 times out of 100.
If you can afford it then yeah it’s a good high risk high reward option. I love the Robert deal and I think it’s going to turn out great. All I’m saying is for every Luis Robert there’s a Mark Appel who is an “elite” talent and doesn’t pan out.
I know what you’re saying, and I understand the risk. I still think it’s absolutely worth it for damn near every team. I would love to see the Rays lockup Franco to a Robert-like deal.
*Also, it goes without saying, but pitchers are a lot more risky than position players. They break much, much easier.
If you’re a team like the Rays you basically have to try that because with that budget you’d never be able to afford the player at market value. Only way you can ever even make extensions there is if you do it early enough to keep the numbers down.
I agree. However, not every player would accept an extension while they are still in the minor leagues and it is a lot riskier than extending a proven major leaguer.
Also, I would never sign a pitcher to a long term extension like this. The injuries just make that a losing proposition.
In Singleton’s case, he signed that deal 100% so he could buy more weed. He knew his career wasn’t going to work out, so whoever advised him (since I doubt he made the decision solely on his own) was smart to at least get a little something.
Matt Dominguez was offered that contract extension by the Astros too, and he turned it down, only to be out of the league within the next few seasons and fading into total irrelevancy.
LET’S GO!!!!!!
This is so awesome. i would love to see Tatis sign this extension. He is amazing and totally deserves it.
Tatis was not 3rd in MVP voting that’s completely false
You’re right, he was fourth.
baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2020.shtml
* I saw that, too. He was FOURTH in the MVP vote just behind Machado who was third. Easy mistake.
I hope the Padres don’t find this out, they might decide to cut him instead
Nah, he still has some value. They’d be better off trying to trade him for a veteran pitcher to help with their playoff push. Someone like James Shields perhaps?
Is this something a team should do for a guy who’s played 143 games in his career? Wouldn’t it be prudent to let him play another year or so to make sure?
It would cost more if he plays longer.
Not really. Not enough more.
If I were him yes if I was Preller no. Only 143 games like sheesh
This is what teams that behave like small and middle market clubs have to do. Tatis two seasons combined to make roughly one season worth of AB’s which come out to a slash line of: .301/.374/.582
That’s some elite stuff, right there. If he were to post a line like that in 2021, he may decide to just wait for free agency or maybe he would decide it ought to be more. It’s obviously a risk but that’s the chance you take if you don’t want to lose him to another club with a more willing owner to spend money.
I wish I could correct that last sentence. It’s really jarring. Should have read “with an owner more willing to spend.”
All reads the same buddy
It’s definitely an enticing offer considering what Acuna and Albies signed for. Having opt-outs make it a no-brainer.
The next star of the game deserves this much. Good on him, and good on the Padres for not being cheap bassturds.
Soto is better
What’s the point of bringing up Soto? It doesn’t discount how good Tatis is.
No he isn’t
re: Soto
Ignorance is a fearful disease, but the cure is easy. Educate yourself a bit.
Soto – 9.7 WAR in 313 Games
Tatis – 7.0 WAR in 143 Games
Which is better?
WAR is a cumulative stat, meaning if both players have the same rate stats the one that plays more games will have the higher WAR.
So divide the WAR of each by games played to give you the better player.
Soto is an amazing hitter but Tatis is a total ball player who is becoming a global personality – that sells.
Sure. Let’s divide a pseudo-stat to get an even more problematic pseudo-stat.
The best stat we have available. There simply isn’t a better one to compare contribution of the total game, not just the offense.
Baseball stats were never meant to include “total” contributions; there are far too many factors involved. That’s why you look at a variety of numbers. And even Fangraphs and BP admit that defensive “metrics” are “flawed and imprecise.” The great lie is when bRef and Fangraphs tries to put up a WAR stat for any player that was active before 1992; it’s impossible!
And the math? As someone with a very high level of education in mathematics, including statistical analysis, I’m pretty confident in saying there’s a very good reason some of these “statisticians” are working in baseball instead of working for Wall Street firms or insurance companies. The reason is the math behind WAR, any “x” stat, and many others, don’t stand up in the real world of Statical Analysis.
WAR is “fun” to look at. But nothing to be taken seriously.
Awesome Preller and Pads! Wow!!!
Lotta $$$ for a guy that has not played a full season and could be considered a bit overrated… Padres going to run outa money very soon one would think.
IMO he should get an extension similar to Acuña’s or a bit more but not a 320 milliion one
I think it’s fair to say he should get more than the Acuña extension because that one seemed a bit low at the time. But $320M is a heck of a lot more..
The Alex Bregman contract or maybe a bit more sounds about right for Tatis. The contract they are talking about in this article is approaching “Godfather offer” territory.
“It seems quite possible that the Tatis extension will also include at least one opt-out…”
It better not. Giving him an opt-out would defeat the whole purpose of extending him.
“An extension would essentially make that debate a moot point…”
Nope because it means they gave away leverage in extension talks.
“… and given how Tatis has performed in the majors, one can hardly fault Preller and company for wanting to unleash him on MLB as quickly as possible.”
Au contraire, Tatis’ superlative performance makes the decision to swat a free year of control (or extra leverage in extension talks) to the ground look even worse. If Tatis were just meh, no one would care that they did that.
I for one am glad they’re acting like a big market and not Kansas City.
From the common sense department comes this earth-shattering news…
Tatis means so much to San Diego. He’s nearly up there with Gwynn, and Junior Seau as town icons. love this potential deal, and how the Padres haven’t mistreated him. Lock him up for life.
I mean when you’re offering this kind of dough you can mistreat the guy all you want. Not accepting this offer if it indeed exists would be financially derelict.
As Tommy Lasorda said, Happy Cows give the best milk
Head
This is a lot of money to pay someone so young he only has 1 full major league season under his belt if he has an injury it could change his whole career and the Padres could end up with a Chris Davis (Decline in performance) or Ryan Howard situation (an injury that changes career) It could work out but there are many risks to large extensions.
There has to be a give and take, otherwise it’s not worth it. You control this guy for the next four seasons with no long-term commitment, and he’s not even arb eligible yet. So what do you gain from a contract that’s close to market rate? Might as well just give it to him closer to free agency after he proves that he can both sustain his success and stay healthy (huge ifs imho, and I’m a big fan of this kid).
They already have 2 behemoth contracts on the books. If SD gives Tatis a mega extension, there’s no denying that at some point they’ll either desperately attempt to unload them (see COL/Arenado saga) or surround them with scrubs and rookies making league minimum. That kind of roster construction never works out even in the biggest markets.
Isn’t this free agent money? Isn’t the point of the early extension to pretty much buy out the arbitration years for more money and get a cheaper deal for the post arb years? Why wouldn’t the Padres wait? I guess I don’t understand the logistics of this.
Because Preller.
Because AJ likes spending money no one else is willing to spend. Meyers, Hosmer that lefty whose name I can never remember. All his contracts always seem to be boneheaded overpays.
This buys out six free agent years at $29M per. He’s certainly not going to make while under control for the next five years at $145M. I’d argue it would be $60M tops through the normal arb process. Too much risk for the Padres IMHO.
That is way too much money for a pre-arb player
Yes, it is. And, how many ML games has he played?
Opt-outs make sense for the Padres only if the deal is heavily back-loaded, like Giancarlo’s was.
Back-loading still takes AAV into account for annual payroll purposes.
I hate “opt-outs.” They seem inherently dishonest. I’ll change my mind when I see a player give the team an opt-out.
@SDHotDawg no agent that wants to keep their job would ever let one of their clients do that. Never ever ever.
I know it’ll never happen. That doesn’t make it any less sleazy.
@SDHotDawg I mean if you can get it why not take it?
Exactly, why not take it. But, if you sign a 7-yr contract (for example), how commited can you really be if you say, “Well, I might want to leave in 4 years?”
I know it’ll never happen, but I’d like to see a team get an opt out if the player is under-performing. It should be a two-way street.
And I’d like to date Camila Cabello. Let’s see what happens first.
Awful lot of front office pros on here.
Hater.
@BlackM … Should everybody apologize because you lack the knowledge to formulate a coherent opinion of your own? Why are you here if you don’t understand being an intelligent fan?
He has the highest upside of any young player but the sample size is risky to give 320 million to yet.
That’s not even a discount for guaranteeing that much money 4 years early.
That’s a no brainer offer considering he will be lucky to make 40 million the next 4 years. Basically 7 for 280. Sign now
Seeing those numbers vs what Acuna got is staggering.
That’s because the Padres are idiots. It’s unbelievable how they keep overpaying for players. They already have multiple terrible contracts on the books. Tatis is a great player, but the guy hasn’t even played a full season yet. And contracts aside, I rather have Acuna over Tatis anyways.
The Padres also benefit in intangible ways.
Keeping Tatis as a Padre for the next 10 years is worth way more than just what he does on the field….which if he stays healthy will justify the $$. by itself.
There aren’t many more marketable players in MLB right now than Tatis.(just ask Gatorade).
Ticket sales,merchandise,advertising etc is worth a lot for a player like FTJ.
Then there’s the fact he’s an incredible 5 tool player.
A team like the Padres really needs the “next Tony Gwynn”.
Seems like an unnecessary risk to me. I am sure 40 million a year after arbitration will get the job done as well.
11/$330 is $29M a year. Betts got $30M his last year of arbitration. Gone are the days when arbitration meant a $1m pay raise.
$29M is a bargain. Backloading the contract so that he gets more after 5 or 6 years, would make it less likely that he’d exercise an option to get more money at age 27/28 yrs old. I think in the current market, $330/11 is a steal. I’d expect Tatis’ people to counter with maybe $400/13 or even $420/13 (i.e. through age 35).
Hmm … after two years in the big leagues you’re already sure he’s THAT good and will remain that way? Seems like a really big risk that they don’t need to take. They could see how he develops as a player for a year or two still, and THEN lock him up, or if he’s then too expensive, trade him and grab someone nearly as good as a free agent.
This is really dumb if those numbers are correct. You extend great players early because you can get a deal on them. Not at full max level market rate.
143 games and you’re ready to make this kid a $400 million dollar ballplayer….glad you’re not managing my money.
Secondly, backloading a contract with any ridiculous money that’s being discussed will only make him next to impossible to trade without throwing in major money to get a team to take him..see Giancarlo Stanton.
Third, this kid will be crying to force a trade the first year some ballplayer gets a contract exceeding his annual $ value crying he’s “underpaid”. And that will happen..guaranteed!
Frankly, with controllable years still in their pocket, can’t believe San Diego is this stupid to jump this early before he truly shows that any talent he has is consistent and he truly is the megastar the fans commenting here think he is.
Even if he sets arbitration records he’s going to make 4-50? You are basically offering him 38-40 million a year for the 7 years after arbitration. That’s mike trout money but Mike trout was already a first ballot hall of famer when he got that deal. Waiting 2-3 years isn’t going to cost you much more if any and eliminates a lot of risk.
7 years 130-160 makes more for both parties.
Two 300M contracts on the books. Interesting to see what the Padres will look like in 5 years
Yeah, I’m trying to recall an organization that found sustainable success by spending money like a drunken sailor. That didn’t pan out so well for Frank McCourt’s Dodgers, and the Yankees never were able to buy as many trophies as they thought they were paying for.
Make him a career Padre.
Do it! Asap.. That way I can get a nice chuckle once fans realize the Padres are only this good on paper and 60 gm seasons. . I will not be surprised to see the majority of their rotation on the DL and then what? Plus the 2021 Free Agent class will be that much better with one less team having the ability to spend big.
Pobrecito
@LaFlamaBlanca
You do realize that if the Padres sign Tatis to an extension now that they will be setting the SS market for next off-season right? Whatever they sign Tatis to, every great free agent SS will be starting their negotiations at next year.
I have noticed that you are a Dodger fan LaFlamaBlanca. I have also seen you say more than once on here that Seager is better than Tatis. The Padres may not look so stupid next year when Seager wants $350-$400 million.
But they would look REALLY stupid if he signs for significantly less
The top shortstops who are FA’s next offseason are begging for this extension to happen LMAO. If a guy 4 years out from FA with an injury history and with really only 4 months of elite production in the majors can get $300m with multiple opt-outs, then it should be a breeze for them.
Tatis Sr said in a Spanish language interview that Jr was not willing to go past 6 years because he wanted to have a shot at a big contract in FA at age 26. I wonder what happened to change his mind? I also wonder how off these numbers are?
LOL its 320 million. If they offer that, you take it.
If he were to wait to sign until FA his contract would be larger than what is mentioned in this rumor. Think Bett’s contract plus 4 years of inflation so around 12/400.
The players are comparable. Bett’s had 6.3 WAR after his first 650 PA and Tatis has 7.0 WAR after his first 629 PA.
They’re paying him Mookie Betts money when he’s four years out from FA with a not insignificant injury history and if they give him an opt out he can still try later for that $400m contract if he so chooses. Do the math.
Yeah, but they didn’t sign Betts to that contract after 650 PAs, he has a much longer track record.
Obviously the rumors were wrong. They are not paying him Betts money and even at 11/320 its not Betts money. Betts got 12/365. A $45 million difference.
Waiting to sign for $400 million as a FA is an $80 million difference from the rumor we saw of 11/320 and $35 million more than Betts got. And that doesn’t include the $40-45 million he will earn before becoming a FA.
Given the fact that he seems to be injured weekly, I personally think he’d be insane not to take any $300+ million deal.
Money is what happened to change his mind. Not accepting this offer would be financially derelict. And he may get to be a FA at 26 anyway if this contract has an opt-out clause.
Tatis Sr never said that.
Look up his interviews. I believe it was August 14th, 2020. In the same interview he said that Elijah Tatis, who was also signed by the White Sox, has better skills than Jr. did at that same age.
That’s not my job. You made the claim, you provide the link.
If you don’t want to look it up yourself, don’t complain about by implying somebody is a liar.
1. The burden of proof is on the person who makes the claim. Always has been. If I were to say the Earth is flat, then it would be up to me to prove that.
2. He has a documented history of making stuff up and saying he heard it on some website then refusing to provide a link.
So Sr. is crazy. Got it.
If you are too lazy to look it up when I even gave you the date, that’s on you. It doesn’t make what I said incorrect.
Sr. said that the Bregman deal was the starting point for negotiations and that Jr. did not want to go past 6 years so he could be a FA again. In 6 years he would be looking at a $40 million AAV if he continues to play at the same level he has so far so both make tremendous sense. All this $300 million and 11 years never made any sense for the Padres or Tatis Jr.
I don’t have to look it up. The burden of proof is on you. Just drop the link for God’s sake.
Because I already know no such link exists just like all the other shxt you say, I won’t hold my breath.
I do remember reading what Fernando Sr. said about Elijah Tatis.
Fernando jr. has said that he loves San Diego, wants to play his whole career in San Diego, and wants a statue at Petco Park.
What changed his mind? A ridiculous amount of money for somebody that has played 143 career games. Only a complete moron would say no to this amount of money at this point in his career.
I’d say 11/355. Opt outs after 3 and 6 years.
Well that’s not much of a deal for SD. Especially after they “did right by him” or whatever in not manipulating his service time.
How is it bad? Thats 32m aav? In 10 years that’ll be a very team friendly Aav for players. Which is ridiculous
If that is indeed the case then he’ll opt out and the Padres will be forced to either pay him in line with the market or lose him to LAD or NYY.
He’s not due to become a FA until after ’25. Even if he opts out after ’24, he still stands to be under control and due for arbitration for another year. A sixth year opt-out buys out on FA. No way the Padres agrees to that.
He’s not due to become a FA until after ’25. Even if he opts out after ’24, he still stands to be under control and due for arbitration for another year. A sixth year opt-out buys out one FA year. No way the Padres agrees to that.
With no extension, Tatis is FA after 2024. Would have been after 2025 but Preller foolishly put him on the major league roster to start the 2019 season and effectively threw guaranteed control of his 2025 season into the garbage.
An extension buy out all those years. So technically the big money wouldn’t kick in until 2025. Thats 4 years right there. If you had 5-7 more years. He can opt out after 3 and 6 years. Tha would be 355/12 though. You get the jist of my point.
Opt Outs are a good thing. Unless you’re Mike Trout. All deals should have them. I still think Harper is stupid for getting 13 years but no opt outs. He’s not gonna win in Philly.
Opt outs are great for players. But atrocious for teams.
That is a laughably bad deal for SD
When it’s not their money people come up with stupid ideas such as this one. If they’re offering long-term financial stability and reducing his risk, while taking on all the risk themselves, the Padres should be getting a discount, not vastly overpaying.
White Sox will never forgive themselves for letting him go.
Least Hahn is capable of extending his key players without making them Godfather offers.
salt
He extended them for 2 years and didn’t make them lifers. That obviously going to cost a lot less money. Those deals are great until you give one to a dud
Less AAV too
Of course because they were all signed with 3 years of pre arb and completely unproven players.
Tatis still has a year of pre-arb left and is in many ways “unproven.” He has played in 143 games at the major league level and swooned pretty hard in the second half of 2020.
Plus, I thought he was supposed to be so happy that they didn’t manipulate his service time that he would sign for pennies on the dollar. That’s what people were saying at the time.
I think extending tatis for that much is insane at this point. No argument from me. I am not a padres fans but signing a guy to an 11 year contract and 7 years of free agency is a lot different than paying a guy all his arb money up front to theoretically get a discount on 2 years after arb. These deals aren’t comparable.
Not sure what you sign him to this big of a deal at this time. If you get a discount cool. The reported numbers are far from a discount.
I hated the deal at the time because I thought trading anything for Shields was an overpay. I cringe every time I hear about Tatis. Getting him would have solved their OF problem because TA could have moved over. Just painful.
Lol why? Anderson is good and they basically had identical WAR last year.
Irresponsible!
Two weeks ago I was impressed by padre gm(preller) for bolstering his team in roughly a 48 hour period by pushing all his chips in to compete with the dodgers.
Now he gives out an albatross contract like heyward(cubs),stanton(nyy) and pujols.
The only reason these three are in their starting line-ups is because of their contracts.cubs can hide heyward in rf,Yanks can do the same with stanton and the angels can hide pujols at first.all of them adversely affect the flexibility of their teams.
The padres have to have faith tatis doesn’t get hurt or can maintain his excellent production.you can’t hide someone at ss and it really hurts if they are only playing there because of their salary.
Tatis has one pre-arb season left and three arb seasons due him.being generous the ludicrous arbitration system would award him 40 mil total versus the estimated 29/a year contract.so preller is going to spend 116 mil over 4 years when if he played this out would have cost him 40 mil.plus this is going to affect his salary flexibility for years to come.
Padre fans should be excited but should cross fingers for tatis’ health and continued production.
Lot of money considering it covers a pre-arb year and the first two arb years (for the third one, I expect him to break the arb record, so that won’t be too far off from market value).
Tatis won’t break the arb record for two reasons:
1) He missed a lot of his first season with injury, which hurts his counting stats.
2) The 2020 (and possibly 2021 season) was shortened by two-thirds, which again hurts his counting stats. Arb relies heavily on these things.
He’ll get paid, but nowhere near the 30 million a year Preller wants to give him for some bizarre reason. Huge overpay.
Preller won’t be giving Tatis $30 mil starting this season.
To think so is ludicrous.
Will probably be sign bonus of $5-$10 mil and the next 3 seasons won’t add to $30 mil.
He won’t get “expensive” until year four in any extension Preller offers.
$320/11 = $29.1M/yr. How it works out doesn’t actually matter; that would be the CBT value for the life of the contract.
When did Tatis play a minor league game for the White Sox? He didn’t.
Who said he did?
Imagine trading away Tatis to acquire……James Shields. Shields who was absolutely ATROCIOUS in a White Sox uni to boot. Hahn should be fired.
Imagine trading away Yasmani Grandal to acquire……Matt Kemp.
Imagine trading away Trea Turner to acquire……Wil Myers.
To be fair, Kemp gave us our first cycle in our history, so I’d do that trade in a heartbeat every time just for that moment. Also, it’s not like the Padres would have been competitive with Grandal on the roster either, so it doesn’t exactly matter.
@ukpadre wow such delusion. Are you aware that the Padres literally just finished paying Hector Oivera three months ago?
Olivera has nothing to do with anything.
@SDHotDawg the Padres had to take him to dump Kemp. And Olivera’s contract JUST came off the books this offseason. THAT is how bad the Kemp trade was.
And that isn’t even taking into account the production LA and Philly have gotten from Yasmani Grandal and Zach Eflin. Grandal’s days in SD might have been numbered when he was traded, but he could have been flipped for a prospect or two or just non-tendered. And the Padres are going to need decent or better innings in 2021. Eflin could have provided some of those.
Wil Myers was the best hitter in the NL West last season.
Ahead of Tatis,Machado,Bellinger and Betts.
And the Padres SS is as good or better than Turner so…..
@mrpadre19 Actually that title goes to Mike Yastrzemski. And I’m not sure I believe that Tatis is as good as Turner. And either way, it’s not like there wouldn’t have been room for both of them on the Padres’ roster.
Wil Myers finally had a prolonged hot streak in a 60 game “season.” Where do you want to put his statue?
The same Hahn who signed Robert, traded Sale before he broke down for Moncada and Kopech, traded Eaton for Giolito and Dunning, and Quintana for Eloy and Cease, that Hahn should be fired? The same Hahn who locked up Eloy, Robert, Anderson, and Bummer to team-friendly extensions, you’d fire that guy?
The Tatis deal was a colossal mistake. I hated it at the time, but nobody had any clue how good he’d be. I hated it because the Sox were fooling themselves into thinking they were contenders and that Shields was the guy he was two years before the trade. But then, every team has a colossal blunder like that. How many GM’s passed on Trout? Maybe we should fire all of them, too.
They traded a 16 year old who was barely a top 30 international prospect in his own class. He was the definition of a lottery ticket, and quite frankly, the odds of him turning into anything were extremely slim. The Padres hit a home run, but to act like they were anything but extremely lucky is a joke. I guarantee that NOBODY, including the Padres or Sox, expected him to turn into this. If they did, he would’ve signed for a heck of a lot more than $825,000.
Even being a Padre fan, I have to agree. We hit the lottery.
Appears Tatis is the one who hit the lottery
It’s 2021, in case you were unaware lol.
Honestly, it seems teams would learn their lesson about long term mega deals.
WTF? Isn’t this about triple what any other team has paid a young superstar?
Do the Padres know he is going to be on their team through 2024 already? Maybe someone should tell them?
If he won’t sign a reasonable extension let him play for 4 more years and throw money at him then. Tatis is good but they have no reason to pay him Mookie Betts money right now.
And what if he turns out to be better than he is right now? Then you have to add another $100 million and have to risk him saying no and then getting signed by LA. He’s the face of the franchise. He’s only going to get better. This is our time and he will be ours through his best years. Its a no-brainer.
@dvmin98 If he gets an opt out (as this article suggests is likely) and he turns out to be better than he is right now then the Padres STILL have to “add another $100 million and have to risk him saying no and then getting signed by LA” even WITH this extension.
What if you sign him to a $320m contract and he considers it a retirement check?
Under which scenario do you think you’ll get the best out of the player? (A) he has to work his ass off the next 4 years to earn a paycheck or (B) he gets $320m over the next decade regardless of his performance?
I would love to see some data on players who tapered off after signing huge contracts. I guarantee it’s happened, but how often?
Definitely agree. Thru 3 years of arbitration beginning after the ’22 season, Tatis perhaps would have made $70mm. Plus 2 pre-arb years, say for $2mm. So that’s $72mm for 5 years. A 10 yr extension at $320mm would effectively pay him $50mm per season. That’s crazy, particularly for a small market team like the Padres. Tatis is certainly special, but generally large commitments like this are only handed out to players with an established track record. Tatis for his part has played 143 MLB games in his career. I’d say this is an overpay of more than $50mm. Perhaps Tatis should donate $50mm to Acuna to make all right with the world.
Acuna should fire his agent
I mean, it’s not like Tatis isn’t worth the money. But as hyraxwithaflamethrower said, this is about triple what comparable players have gotten. And after the Padres chose not to manipulate his service time which was supposed to make him play nice when it came time to talk contract.
He’s not going to look out for the Padres during contract talks. He’s gonna look out for his family. The Padres not f’ing with his service time makes them look good in the eyes of free agents, etc in knowing the ownership aren’t a bunch of dirtbags. Also, this signing shows that Seidler is one of the better owners in sports and wants to win, even if takes a lot of money. This is fantastic news and its finally a good time to be a Padres’ fan.
@dvmin98 if he’s not going to look out for the Padres, why should they look out for him? And I have yet to see the Padres get anything tangible out of not messing with Tatis’ service time. You say it makes them look good in the eyes of free agents, yet they still only sign with the Padres when they offer the most $. And manipulating service time on Bryant and Acuña sure hasn’t stopped the Braves and Cubs from signing who they need to sign.
Using the Cubs as a comparison?
Really? The Darvish trade didn’t speak volumes?
Yes I will use the Cubs as a comparison. They faced no real repercussions for manipulating service time on Bryant. Ditto the Braves on Acuña.
Why not? You used the Cubs (and Astros) as comparisons to defend Preller for at least five years.
This comment thread is funny af. Being a Padres’ fan, all I’ve heard over the past several decades is how cheap our ownership is, etc etc etc. Now that we actually have an owner that is going to do everything possible to win, including signing the face of the franchise and possibly the best player in the game to a long term contract, people are still complaining. Yes, there’s a lot of risk, but when it comes to a generational talent that is basically home-grown, you have to make that move. I. Love. Every. Single. Thing. About. It.
Tatis has less than a full season of games under his belt, and people are calling him a “generational talent?” Take off your blinders, people. I’m glad he’s on our team, but let’s get real.
Have you seen any better since Robbie Alomar? In fact, Robbie’s numbers in his first two years aren’t even in the same galaxy.
143 games doesn’t qualify as “two years.” And I can go back through history and find a hundred players to counter your point.
Like I said, “get real.”
Wow, “Face of the Franchise, “Best player in the game”, “Generational Talent” and he hasn’t played the equivalent of 1 full season in the game…..a bit of an overstatement at this juncture.
What leads you to this conclusion?
Yeah, it’s pretty silly.
DVM, Padres signed players to one of the largest contracts of each respective offseason in 2017-2019 with Myers, Hosmer, and Machado. Anyone who says they are cheap is not paying attention.
First thought | Acuña and Albies deals are such a steal that you could tack on $50 million to each and they’d still be bargains.
Second thought | $320 million is essentially superstar free agent money now. Seems a bit much for an early-career extension.
Third thought | On the other hand, I guess it’s better to pay $320 million for a player in their 20’s vs. their 30’s. Plus, the market could very well swell to $400 million by the time Tatis was a FA. The Padres are paying today’s rates before they inevitably spike.
Fourth thought | Baseball is messed up because teams clearly aren’t losing as much money as they claim. We’ve sat through months of money disputes and have only gotten a 60-game season, a boring offseason, and no NL DH. Not to mention a looming CBA and terrible TV contracts that prevent fans from actually watching the games save for 2-3 nationally televised games a week. Baseball is in trouble if the leadership continues down the path they’ve taken.
Had their been a poll on a potential Tatis extension, I don’t even know if anything above $250 would’ve even been a voting option. I’m always interested to see how these deals come together and how they arrive at such a large figure.
I like this move by the Padres paying their guy early taking any possible tension between sides out of the picture. It’s clear who the man in San Diego is and possibly all of baseball. You can have Mike Trout I’ll take Tatis. 2021 NL MVP.
Looks like the same people who whined about not manipulating his service time are now moaning about the size of the contract. Dolts.
That’s because both were stupid. The reported contract was about 3x as much as what comparable players have gotten. AND it had opt-outs in it which means the contract is guaranteed to be underwater after the first opt-out.
“Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Tatis and the Padres have yet to begin contract negotiations.“
**signs contract today**
Everyone saying $300 mil is too much yet no real numbers have even been released.
Kinda hard to discuss when all we have is speculation
Maybe it’s closer to $200 mil….so an entirely “different” discussion altogether.
$320M doesn’t sound like it makes any sense for the Padres buying out six free agent years while paying Tatis $145M over the next five even with salary backloading. It’s going to take a ton of deferments to justifying that during his control years.
gotta love “insiders” spinning false stories
I see a 7 year deal at $28-$30 million a year because the Mets have money.
So we’ve gone from there’s “ink on contract” to the two sides have “yet to begin contract negotiations.”
More proof that many of these so called “journalists” are more interested in being FIRST than they are being ACCURATE.
Kind of a weird situation with these conflicting reports. Jessica Kleinschmidt was on the radio in San Diego this morning saying saying that despite this update from Nightengale she can confirm that there have been discussions. She also said she couldn’t confirm the numbers from the initial report from Pio Deportes though and obviously these contractual negotiations are back and forth processes.
That’s definitely different than “ink on paper” so I’m taking it with a grain of salt. It’s just strange to see the contrast, because by definition one of the reports is wrong here.
The original tweet about it being 11/$320m was from an unverified account who I had never even heard of before that tweet. This doesn’t look good for people taking him seriously in the future.
This all is to funny, SD will NOT extend Tatis to a huge 300m contract before his arb years, with only about 1 seasons total AB’s. Ridiculous!
It is ridiculous. But … Preller.
In 48 hours, we go from “talks seem pretty advanced” , to “ yet to begin contract negotiations “. The entertainment value of the rumors never lets me down.
I am glad the report is fake because 11/320 didn’t make sense for the Padres. Tatis will get maybe 40-45M over the next 4 years if he keeps performing like he has, so then the Padres would pay about 40M per year after? Literally no discount for the Padres in that kind of offer…. paying 40M is probably what he gets anyways when he hits FA.
Where are you getting 40-45M from? Mookie Betts and Nolan Arenado both made more than 56+M during their arbitration years.
Both Betts and Arenado were super 2s and therefore got an extra run through arbitration. Tatis won’t get that, so $40m-$45 million probably isn’t a million miles off. Personally I think it will fall somewhere between the two ($45-56mil).
Tatis will 100% get Super 2 status if he does not sign a contract. Tatis was on the opening day roster when he made his debut.
Then they’ll be no super 2 status because the Padres won’t get an extra year of control.
@OurPadreWhoArtInSD You have no idea how Super Two works. Him being on the opening day roster is precisely why he won’t be a Super Two.
Yeah. This was a dumb comment on your part. Delete your profile.
More made-up stories by Sports righter or want to be. Sports righters have nothing right now I will make something up. That is the new norm.
“Come on, man!” I may agree with you, and I hate “spelling police” as much as anybody, but you typed it twice! The word is WRITER!
No offence meant, but jeez.
LMAO
I thought he was going for “lefter.”
This should have been obvious from the start. Those numbers made absolutely zero sense.
AJ: I’ve flown here to offer you a contract worth more than your entire country.
This may be an exaggeration. Perhaps.
I trust the Athletic on this, if anyone knows whats going on here its going to be Rosenthal and Lin.
Do these reporters just make this stuff up and hope no one calls them out on it?
Haven’t you heard? Journalism is dead.
The Jay’s are said to be in on a contract extension for him as well.
Can’t believe TRs misses reporting that!
I understand why Preller feels the urgency to extend Tatis now, but wouldn’t it be wiser to give today’s money to a FA now on a short term deal to address a need while still having Tatis at a bargain rate?