The posting period for Tomoyuki Sugano ends today at 5pm ET. He’s reportedly seeking more than the four-year, $56MM deal that Yusei Kikuchi signed to join the Mariners, writes Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com. That’s a hefty sum, and with a four-year contract in-hand to return to the Yomiuri Giants – a deal that includes three opt-outs – it begins to feel less likely that the Japanese legend will find the deal he desires. Still, he’s an absolute star in Japan and could be the best free agent starter not named Trevor Bauer. The Red Sox are still interested, as are the Blue Jays. The Mets are out. [UPDATE: “A return to Japan still appears most likely outcome” for Sugano, according to Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic]
While we wait for Sugano’s decision, let’s check in on some other league news…
- It was an omen of the winter to come when the Cleveland Indians waived their closer Brad Hand. When he went unclaimed, panic reached new heights. If Hand at $10MM went unclaimed by all 30 teams, free agent spending figured to be at an all-time low. Interest appears to be picking up on Hand, but on the whole, the market remains cold. Perhaps to an unprecedented degree, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Agents fear GMs are being intentionally obtuse about their payrolls in order to delay signings and inspire an ecosystem of desperation among players. The lack of face-to-face meetings might also be making the frigid environment easier to teams to maintain, suggests Nightengale. Elsewhere…
- Upon hearing that some teams were planning on opening up their facilities to allow players to come train, MLB sent a memo to all thirty clubs setting clear guidelines for the opening of training facilities, per Nightengale. The only players who will be allowed in their team facilities prior to spring training, Nightengale writes, are those who live near the facilities, those with specific health needs, and those approved in the CBA to attend club mini-camps. Violations will be subject to severe punishment. Of course, what that means is all relative. MLB is trying to get ahead of any potential outbreaks in January or February that would complicate initial protocols.
I had no idea it would be so much. I won’t pay it.
nobody expected you to pay it
I’m not grotesquely stupid.
I believe that was a line from Ghostbusters, so his comedic post went completely over your head.
Well, we can just put it back……. 🙂
“Comedic” lol
We are laughing
Yes reciting movie lines is the pinnacle of comedy. Mike Judge nailed this one too…24thekid is part of the audience that will one day soon make ASS the movie #1
why would I have seen that movie
It’s true. This man has no dick.
“Human sacrifice! Cats and dogs, living together! Mass hysteria!
Real Old Testament stuff!
He’s already 31 which would exclude a 4 year for that much IMO. Despite a good 2020 he also had a shaky 2019 season which is alarming. Which season is more likely… his 2020 or 2019 season? Father time is not on his side…
his rough 2019 was the only close to subpar year in his career and he immediately bounced back and was great again in 2020.
I’m so sick of this guy’s emotional diarrhea in the comments section. It’s never funny. It’s always a cry for attention. It has nothing to do with baseball.
I am on the app and cannot like your post, but I whole-heartedly agree…it’s annoying af!
13mm per for currently the best pitcher out of Japan is too much???? SMH… it’s more than fair
Well it is 13.5 plus the posting fee so more than 13million per.
For a AAA equivalent? Nah.
So Tanaka was only a AAA pitcher these past few years? I didn’t know that.
Plus he is 31 now and had a poor 2019..
Severe punishment? Oh God hopefully close to the absolute LASHING Justin Turner got for breaking the rules
I wonder if that is part of the reason he has found himself unemployed.
I highly doubt that.
The Indians traded a player for his role in breaking the rules. I bet there are more teams then just them, that have concerns over player actions.
Every FA is pretty much unemployeed. JT is gonna get 35M+ lol
Yea your comment has no bearing on this topic. But, thanks anyway.
Starting to sound more and more like Sugano is going back to Japan. I’m not saying what he’s asking for is outrageous, but in this market, I don’t think teams will meet his asking price.
he should take 2/30 or go back to japan.
Actually it sounds like what he is planning since he has a 4 year deal with opt outs on the table from his Japanese team. It will take a 4 year deal with similar money to the deal he has in hand for him to move here. If I am Suganos I would do the same thing. He is a star in Japan. Why give up several years of guaranteed money for a chance to pitch in the USA risking the guaranteed money?
His contract in Japan is worth about $4.3M. One year in the US = 3 years in Japan.
I have seen were he made $6 mill last year and have not seen the details of his new deal that he has on hand from Japan. I am sure it is more AAV than the $6 mill from last year.
Justin Smoak just signed for $6M in Japan. Have to believe the best pitcher in Japan, someone who is a superstar there, isn’t getting less than that. The gamble is he takes less for 2021 by going back to Japan, but ultimately gets more in 2022-24/25 by delaying his arrival by a year. It’s a gamble, but not a bad one. It likely would pay off for him.
Severe Punishment = Compelled to sign Rob Refsnyder to a multi-year contract.
LOL! Now I have a mental image of the scene from “The Jerk”: where Navin Johnson’s maid has a substantial penalty for early withdrawl… :0
At this point shouldn’t the Jays pivot toward Taijuan Walker? Won’t have to commit more than four years to Walker, unlike Sugano. Sugano is the epitome of a wild card signing.
Sugano is not, but that hardly makes a guy that’s pitched 67.1 IP since ’17 more of a sure-thing. The question GMs should be asking about either is: which of these can I sign and still retain my job if they fail miserably.
That is the point. Because Walker hasn’t pitched much he will not command huge money or years. Considering the numbers in 2020 and his career, why not take a chance on a 2-year plus an option?
As for Atkins job, it would be safer signing Walker.
Tajuan Walker is a fan favorite and great guy but at this point he’s a mostly mediocre starting pitcher. He did have solid results last year, but his advanced stats don’t bode well for the future.
Sugano > Walker
clrrogers I’ll buy into your belief if you explain why.
Sugano does have a better track record than Kikuchi. However, the Kikuchi deal looks like a mistake thus far. He showed signs of improvement in ’20, but it’s yet to be determined.
The Kikuchi deal was an overpay by the Mariners because they missed on Ohtani the year before and lost Iwakuma back to Japan. The Mariners have had at least one Japanese player on their opening day roster since 1998 and clearly DiPoto wanted that streak to continue
So much for insiders saying Sugano could get a 2 yr/$24M contract.
Yea Nightengale, all the GM’s got together and said ‘Let’s freeze them so they will sign for less’. What an idiot. Writing these types of comments is irresponsible journalism. He is trying to ‘say’ something against the teams, without saying it.
Exactly. Why not focus on the obvious and that there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in baseball right now.
Will fans be allowed next year?
When will spring training start?
How many games will be played?
If fans are allowed, how many will be let in?
Will there be a DH in the NL?
When will ball players receive the vaccine?
Will there be a strike at the end of the CBA?
Handing out $100M contracts in this environment, with all the unknowns, isn’t prudent. Doesn’t matter how much money one has, that’s just hard to justify. It would be like buying a nice home knowing that you had a 50/50 chance of losing your job within the coming months. Sure you could do it, but it would be a risky proposition.
Kikuchi’s deal is not helping Sugano’s cause. Yes, Sugano might be better (and do better) than Kikuchi, but since Kikuchi is not earning his contract, I don’t think a GM will use it as a benchmark (while at the same time, I don’t fault Sugano’s team from trying to use it as such).
If they signed in the same offseason, you could argue that Sugano should sign for more than Kikuchi, but considering that Kikuchi has shown he was overpaid, that’s not really a benchmark anymore. Kikuchi may have set the benchmark, but he also completely shredded it.
Everyone knew the Mariners overpaid though. Guy was projected as a borderline starter and that’s pretty much who he’s been. Reds overpaid last season for shogo. Can’t blame sugano for going after the money. Bet he takes a lesser contract today
Yeah, the Kikuchi deal is hanging over every GM’s head. Nobody wants to be on the hook for that kind of massive overpay, especially in baseball’s current economic conditions. If Sugano really wants an even bigger contract than Kikuchi from a U.S. club, he’ll probably end up staying in Japan. Especially if he really has a standing offer in Japan with plenty of opt-outs.
On the general issue of free agents, I’m not sure how GM’s can be “intentionally obtuse” about an economic situation that is completely unclear for everybody in baseball. Seems like there’s plenty of unintentional confusion to go around. Do Bob Nightengale or the MLBTR writers have any kind of insight on just how much revenue will be available to major league clubs when we don’t even know if there will be fans in the seats?
Mlb trade rumors has zero inside information. They read what is posted and tweeted
Agents concern about GMs slow playing signings is an accurate one. Mets redsox Braves nationals blue jays will all make big signings yet none are linked to much of anything right now. Cubs and cards should be buyers too. Been plenty of slow offseasons in past but this one will likely pan out to be in a league of its own
In terms of term, I wouldn’t go longer than 3 years. An AAV close to 15 million should get it done. What more does Sugano have to accomplish in Japan?
Using Kikuchi’s contract as a comp is ridiculous given their age difference at time of posting (27 vs 31) and the current fiscal environment.
3/39 would be my final offer. If he doesn’t take this, it’s a mistake by Sugano.
Yo Farhan, you awake dude? You still need starting pitching.
Yeah, can you shout out to Cash too please? They must be sleeping at the same bar.
I doubt Zaidi will pay that price tag.
4 for $56M might be a bit much considering he doesn’t seem to be an innings eater lately. 4 for $5oM is probably more reasonable in the Covid era…
Pretty sure the GM’s are taking it slow in order to depress the market. A snails pace would be faster than this market. The few signings that have occurred are not bargain signings by any means but teams are hoping that by waiting the players out they can get good players at discounted rates come late January and February. And honestly, the free agent market will likely extend into March as well.
Now whether this is collusion or individual GM’s making the same decision independently….well, you be the judge.
Pretty sure it is a 2-way street like most things in life, especially with FA signings so far not being bargain prices. Hendricks for example likely has several clubs willing to draw the line at offering 3yrs at strong guarantee……but he wants to squeeze for 4yrs as is his right to sit back. That delays other relievers until some of his pursuers lose patience and go to plan B/C. Springer holding out for bigger AAV than anticipated and extra year(s) despite deal starting at 31yo. Again that’s any top tier FA right, but players/agents often play the game of crazy demands thinking 1 club will be desperate to give in. Game of poker.
yeah i think he goes back at this point.
As others have mentioned, the problem with citing Kikuchi’s contract is Kikuchi himself. There is likely no correlation/causation, but the recency effect means that GMs are likely to remember how this weighs down Seattle, and also reminds them that no Japanese pitcher is guaranteed, and I have not seen any reliable equations that relates Japan production to US production.
Boston should offer Sugano 4/$50 as a final attempt to sign him. No need to go any higher. If what is stated above is true (his deal in Japan is worth $4.3M/yr) he’d be foolish not to accept it. If he decides to go back to Japan for one more season, the offers he gets next year will be lower than what he’s being offered right now, so he may end up in Japan for his entire career. This is his one true chance to sign a big money deal to pitch in MLB.
No it isn’t.
I have read where he made $6 million for 2020. I have not seen any details of the 4 year contract he has in hand from his Japanese team.. His new deal in Japan has 3 opt outs according to this article. He would have more chances at a big money deal in the USA if he stays healthy.
I’ve read the $6M as well. The $4.3M figure I cited was from 2018. I’d be curious about the exchange rate used to determine the $6M.
I doubt he walks away. If teams don’t want to go four years now, they certainly won’t go 4 years next year. And the injury/performance risk is material at age 31.
Delaying his arrival by one year to improved post-pandemic market conditions is not going to end his chances at big money. Likely increases it as long as he stays healthy. He’ll be one year older, but the market conditions will be more in his favor, plus teams will know that he is not afraid to walk away from a deal not to his liking. I still believe he’ll sign with some team today, but his negotiating position is strong. He can delay his arrival if he wants.
But…but…but…his W-L record is 101-50!!
4/$54 isn’t unreasonable.
2021: 12m
2022: 13m
2023: 14m
2024: 15m or $1m buyout.
That’s 3/$40m guaranteed. Could add 250k/500k incentives for CY win, Cy top 3, or other achievements.
4/56 will be a problem for Sugano since Tanaka will get less than that, and he has a good track record here.
A request for Mr. Zencka-
Is it possible to have a tutorial on how the different Japanese leagues compare? I see Sugano is in the JPCL, while Kikuchi was mostly in the JPPL, with a handful of appearances in the JPEL. Would the JPCL & JPPL be like out AL & NL, where the stats are equivalent?
Sugano, at that price, is questionable for the Red Sox.
The Red Sox need starting pitching and they likely have the money.
But 2021 is likely to be a poor revenue year due to the virus.
And Sale and ERod are serious question marks.
So I see the Red Sox passing on Sugano.
If he stays in Japan he can opt out again for 2022.
That may make more sense for all teams.
Especially to pay that price.
But maybe Sugano will take less.
Times have changed.
The weirdest thing about the Sugano report is that the Padres are still in the mix on him even after Darvish/Snell. That doesn’t really make sense because theoretically their rotation right now is:
1. Darvish
2. Snell
3. Lamet
4. Paddack
5, Morejon/Luchessi/Gore/Baez/Weathers
And then in 2022 they get Clevinger back, but still control everyone else on that list, so if you add Sugano, thats like possibly 11 guys who are legitimate MLB caliber starters. I get that they want depth, but at a certain point if you have like a billion SP, you can’t even use them all.
Doesn’t that kinda imply that they think Paddack is bad now, or that Lamet is still hurt, or they’re worried that they guys listed in the 5th spot might not pan out? You can never have enough starting pitching, but it seems really odd that they would continue to add there when their rotation is already so deep.
If they still have extra money for pitching, they should go get Hendriks
He is staying in Japan. Bloom will have to be interested in someone else.