7:56pm: St. Louis is “pushing hard” for Arenado and “very determined” to get him, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
10:20am: While Arenado has been oft-connected to the deep-pocketed Mets on a speculative basis, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the two sides are not in talks at this time.
9:15am: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also reports that while there have been talks, there’s no trade close at this time. He adds that Arenado’s shoulder “has fully healed” after bothering him throughout much of the 2020 season. Those in need of a refresher on last year’s public tension between Arenado will want to check out Saunders’ piece for various quotes given by Arenado at the time, all of which add context to this new chapter in the saga.
8:10am: The Cardinals have been linked to Nolan Arenado for years now, but they’re once again in talks with the Rockies about a trade that would send the star third baseman from Colorado to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic report. The Braves also spoke to the Rockies about Arenado, it seems, but those talks haven’t gone anywhere.
Acquiring Arenado would be a considerable about-face for a Cardinals club that, up until yesterday, hadn’t shown any signs of spending this winter. The Cards declined a $12.5MM club option on Kolten Wong and have been in a months-long staredown with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright despite both having a clear preference to return to St. Louis. The first hint of a change came last night though, when the Cards agreed to bring Wainwright back on a one-year deal worth $8MM. Prior to that, reports had indicated that the Cardinals were offering Wainwright less than the $5MM guarantee he received in 2020.
An Arenado acquisition would represent a considerably more seismic shift in their otherwise reserved approach. Arenado is owed $199MM over the next six seasons and, next winter, would be able to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM on that contract if he desires.
Among the most sensible contracts for the Cardinals to try to send back to the Rockies to help offset some of that financial hit would be infielder Matt Carpenter ($20.5MM in 2021, including $2MM buyout of next year’s option), Dexter Fowler ($16.5MM in 2021, including deferred signing bonus) or Carlos Martinez ($12MM in 2021, including $500K buyout of 2022 option). St. Louis would clearly need to send prospect value to Colorado as well, and it should be emphasized that trading either Carpenter or Fowler could prove difficult. Both have full no-trade protection.
Arenado has a full no-trade clause of his own, though Rosenthal and Groke suggest he’d “likely” waive it for a move to the Cardinals and might even be willing to push back the opt-out provision in order to facilitate a deal. Arenado has been vocal in the past about the desire to play for a contender and has publicly expressed frustration with Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, whom he has called “very disrespectful.” Were the Rockies winning, perhaps the rift between player and GM could be overlooked, but the Rox have been one of the least-competitive clubs in the NL West for the past two seasons and have done nothing to add to the club this winter.
Lining up on an Arenado trade is complicated for a number of reasons. Beyond the no-trade clause and the huge amount of money still owed to the eight-time Gold Glover, he’s also coming off the worst showing of his career at the plate. The downturn could potentially be attributable to a shoulder injury he battled in 2020, but the results were still somewhat troubling.
Arenado hit .253/.303/.434 (76 wRC+) this past season — a mark that is miles away from the .295/.351/.546 (120 wRC+) batting line that he carried into the 2020 campaign. If the Cardinals or another club believe that Arenado’s struggles were indeed due to that balky shoulder, perhaps the dip in production can be overlooked. Then again, there has to be some level of concern about the injury troubles persisting. Arenado turns 30 in April.
From a payroll vantage point, the Cardinals owe Paul Goldschmidt $26MM in each of the next four seasons, and they’ll pay Miles Mikolas $17MM in each of the next three. Those are the two main salaries on the books, however, and the rest of the long-term slate is relatively clean. Taking on the full freight of Arenado’s current salary would vault the Cardinals’ 2021 payroll up into the $165MM range, although if they can unload a pricey veteran of their own onto Colorado as part of the deal, that sum could fall more in the $145-155MM range. The Cards were willing to spend at that level each year from 2016-19, so there’s precedent, although owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has also been vocal in dubiously claiming baseball to be a less-profitable industry than most realize. The extent to which he’ll spend on the heels of a season with zero gate revenue is still up for debate.
Adding Arenado to the fray would give the Cards about $85MM in commitments in both 2022 and 2023. It’d also bump their 2024 commitments to about $61MM, all going to a pair of what will then be mid-30s corner infielders (Arenado and Goldschmidt). Whether investing that type of coin in a pair of sluggers’ mid-30s is the best use of resources is debatable, but in the short-term, the club would be better off for the move (assuming a healthy Arenado).
That’s particularly true in 2021, where the entire NL Central has been more focused on making their current rosters worse, in order to reduce payroll, than on actually making an effort to win in the upcoming season. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a deal with Joc Pederson this morning, but they’ve also traded away Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and explored trades of other key veterans. The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ salary and non-tendered Archie Bradley. The Brewers have yet to add anyone of particular note, and the Pirates are of course in the midst of an aggressive tear-down as their latest rebuild kicks into full gear.
As written here before, the NL Central appears open for the taking to whichever of the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds or Brewers decide they want to be aggressive enough to seize it. An Arenado trade for the Cardinals would certainly fall into that category.
Wow Arenado is a stud on both sides of the ball. That would be a huge pickup for the red birds. Get it done
The Cards already have top prospect Nolan Gorman for third base. Are the Cards willing to deal him and possibly Carlson?
Cards would be taking on a lot of money unless they’re sending Fowler or Carpenter back to Colorado and that would require waiving their NTCs. Don’t need both Gorman and Carlson when they’re taking on that kind of money.
I don’t think this is smart. 3 of our top 10 prospects are 3B. And another one ranked at 16th. Why would you wanna take on hundreds of millions to block all your upcoming talent for a guy who is a slightly above avg hitter away from coors field? He’s a lifetime .263/.322/.471 hitter away from coors with a .791 ops. The league average ops is around .758. Don’t over pay this guy stl.
But he can opt out after the 2021 season.
Article said waiving that provision might be a stipulation of the trade.
The opt-out can only be waived if there is comparable compensation provided. This could be a trade assignment bonus, future-year opt-outs, and/or something more creative.
A contract’s value can’t be reduced. The MLBPA is firm on this, and with good reason. It’s why A-Rod could not accept a salary decrease to get traded to the Red Sox and was subsequently dealt to the Yankees.
-@screwball
great point! Which means the red birds should not trade 2 of the 3 top prospects, which are all at least best at 3B. If this trade goes through, it would have to satisfy at least the Arenado’s contract the next 2 years.
It would seem to me waiving an optout, or a no-trade clause, is significantly different than restructuring a contract for less money. How would they even value that? Nolan, here’s an extra $10 to drop the optout? Seriously, the optout is to provide control so the player can leave if he wants. If he approves the deal, the optout has served its purpose.
But the guy glove on the hot corner is probably the best in the game along like matt Chapman
One thing to take into account is that the DH will be universal starting in 2022, with the new CBA . This will allow one of those corner infield prospects to get in the lineup. The Cards can also switch positions with some infield prospects to the outfield. Prospects aren’t MLB players.Having multiple prospects for 3B isn’t a negative, knowing hat not all prospects are successful in MLB.
Gorman looks more and more like a future 1B. His ETA is 2023 at the earliest, so Arenado isn’t going to block him if they wind up holding on to him.. I think one of those guys plus some lesser prospect should be enough to get Arenado. That taking the contract off the books is a win enough for the Rockies.
No chance it takes Gorman and Carlson. In fact, Carlson shouldn’t even be a consideration. For the size of Arenado’s contract, the Cardinals (or any other team) would be doing the Rockies a favor by taking it on. Any young talent that comes back to the Rockies should be viewed as a bonus.
Agreed. See Yankees deal for Stanton as blue print.
@salue – realistically, what would it take? I ask because if you trade pitching prospects to the rockies, it wouldn’t really make a dent for the organization thanks to their reputations of ERA’s at 4 or over at Coors’ Field. Any other minor leaguers that would make this at least “fair?”
Carlson can’t be in the deal. And if the Cards take on the full amount of the contract, not much should go Colorado’s way.
And Arenado’s opt-out concerns me.
I’m concerned Mozeliak is going to blow this.
There is a 0% chance Arenado costs both Gorman and Carlson at his price point. There is also a 0% chance a trade happens if the Rockies insist on both. Unless it’s a straight up Arenado for Carlson trade, there’s very little chance he would be going anywhere
A straight-up Arenado-for-Carlson trade would be a big mistake by St Louis.
I’m not saying I would do it. That’s about the only scenario where it starts to make more sense, it’s sure not going to be a Carlson and Gorman package
unless the rockies pay half his salary, they’re not getting Carlson at all. I don’t think the Cardinal’s trade Carlson for anyone not named Trout however.
There was a similar trade by the Cardinals with the Angels to acquire a center fielder, right?
Carlson and Gorman would not be in deal I don’t think
Would probably be Carpenter, Gorman & a pitcher the other way. Can’t see the Rockies dealing Arenado without getting some kind of arm back in the deal.
I think it takes Gorman, Randon, a MLB ready OF (maybe Thomas or Williams), a lower level pitching prospect and a throw in from the Cards (Carp or Fowler)
@dmarcus – I agree with the latter of your first part of your comment, regarding Thomas, Williams, maybe Bader or O’Neill, that would maintain the conversation.
It wouldn’t take near that much to get him with his contract and opt outs.
It depends on probably the contracts coming back. The more the money is balanced out the better the prospect(s) will be coming back to COL.
It also depends on if COL thinks Welker or Vilade are ready to take over 3B.
We’ve heard this before…
Let’s go. But, if we trade for Arenado, first Yadi must be re-signed.
Arenado is not worth his current salary. Trading for him is absolutely stupid. He isn’t worth a bag of balls at that salary.
Wait…baseballs?
What size of a bag??
He is a top 5 3B throughout his career, and he is the bat needed to protect Goldy. I won’t hold my breath but I can happen.
He isn’t worth 35 million a year. He has negative value.
Averaging nearly 6.5 WAR from 2015-19. Anything over 4 WAR is positive value.
He has an Ops+ of 79 away from Colorado. Huge pass.
Please
Maybe jays are in on this if the Semian deals falls through. Atkins was just on tsn 1050 and when asked about his contract and physical was very sketchy answering
Wait what happened?
They asked him if the contract was completed. Atkins said no there was a physical pending and due to rules wasn’t going to comment on a pending physical. then they asked when it was going to take place or when they will find out the results of the physical and Atkins answered the same way
Heard it too. I don’t think anything will come of it. But I’d rather have Arenado if Roark and Grichuk can be unloaded and the Jays land a SP in Freeland or Marquez. Better option than Semien IMO.
Agreed. I don’t know if we could unload Grich but imagine jays trade Grich, Roark and some good prospects for Blackmon and Marquez ohhhh Lordy
The salary aspect I think you’d have to include Grichuk. Plus Colorado is hurting for RH bats in the outfield.
For those thinking Arenado wouldn’t waive his no trade for Toronto, not necessarily true. If he sees a WS ring, big games against the Yankees and Boston in the future then he will strongly consider Toronto. Otherwise he’d happily lose 90 games in Colorado and put up stats.
Very interesting. Thanks, t (can’t get around to calling you bigdaddy!).
You’re gonna say it and you’re gonna like it
Arenado won’t waive his NTC for Toronto. Sorry but you know that’s true
That’s not even remotely close to being true.
I’m always amused by people who say things like “you know that’s true” when there is no way they know if it’s true.
Unless Arenado is posting under the name bot!
I think he would waive the NTC but really it doesn’t matter. No way he’s ever opting out of that contract. Ever. He will never be worth more than that contract. I never understand why people bring up the opt-out like it’s a legitimate concern.
Unless you know….it’s undeniable. No one wants to live and play in Canada and players create things like no trade clauses- in case the team they sign up w wants to trade em to Canada.
And that’s also why Toronto is in on everyone.
As a former reds fan- it’s better to accept reality than pretend like everything is equal and then blame ur organization
Toronto has the minor league depth- trade that to acquire talent or continue to struggle on FA market
Or Toronto thinks now is the time to win? And they have the money to spend? Or they have some young talent with some thump in the lineup? If Arenado wants to turn it down despite zero change to his salary then he is a fool.
Moving to Canada from Denver is a 0 change in his salary ? Sure about that that ?
3 days ago Simmons 3 final options were Toronto cincy and Phili. Literally the last 3 places any player would want to go. And where did he end up ??
Taxes are another discussion. His annual salary would not change. So yes, at least 100% sure about that.
Blue Jays weren’t serious about Simmons so if you’re attempting to make a point it falls flat here.
At no point were the jays considering trading for Arenado.
At no point would arenado waive his NTC to go to Toronto regardless of how good they were.
At no point would it make sense for the jays to acquire yet another RH bat.
At no point since re signing has Arenado been worth that contract.
Just stop with jays should acquire Arenado narrative.
At no point did I say they considered trading for Arenado.
At no point has Arenado had to state whether or not he’d waive his no-trade, so it’s a moot point for now.
At no point should anyone whine about having too many RH bats when many lefties do struggle against strong lefty pitchers.
At no point did I suggest Arenado’s contract was fair or worth it.
You have no concept of winning and your weak stance on “don’t spend money” is a loser mentality. Sometimes you have to take risks. While you applaud the recent Semien and Matz acquisition you happily applaud another missed playoff opportunity. No guts no glory. Jays should have been all over this but it’s way too late.
Get it done.
All for the Padres seeing Arenado in 13 less games
Absolutely.
I’m gonna say it, yes I know it would cost a lot of cash and prospects to get him. But I want the Braves to make this happen terribly! He fits perfectly and just looks like a brave. I’m curious what the deal would have to look like in term of prospect capital. I love waters, so I’d rather trade Pache has the top prospect to make the deal happen (of course assuming others would be involved). I mean, it might taken both Pache and Waters Or Anderson. For pure fun on TR comments, here’s my offer as fake Braves GM..Braves take on contract and NA, for Waters Wright, Riley and Ender… help offset a tiny bit of salary by ridding of ender. Maybe we keep Riley and substitute another prospect in there cause I think we will need Riley in LF if we get NA. But you know Riley’s pop would go well in Colorado :/
“just looks like a brave”
The reasoning of GMs everywhere.
Outside of the finances and baseball related items…for sure the “looks like a” intangible plays in if it’s grounded on good info. Terry Pendelton was that way. Sid Bream. Braves more than most have built around that kind of concept on some way. Dayton Moore took that on to KC. Sure, it’s maybe not the overwhelming top reason on trades and signings. But it plays in. I don’t really want to overstate it though.
Many many years ago, when the then San Diego Chargers drafted Dan Fouts in the 3rd round out of the U of Oregon, the Chargers GM said that they drafted him because his name “sounded like a good quarterback’s name.”
It worked out okay, I would say.
He has the haircut of a Brave!
In this new baseball economy I don’t see it taking nearly as much. The Rockies basically have to get out from under that contract and all the other teams know it. I suspect the Cards aren’t offering more than one of Gorman or Liberatore plus lesser prospects unless they want Colorado to eat significant money
braves fan – I see your offer as way too much. Arenado is paid appropriately, so while I understand the need to entice the Rockies to deal him, they shouldn’t expect a huge haul to get out from under his contract, especially with his opt-out looming.
Thanks gbs42, I felt the need but didn’t want to explain it.
The Rockies are looking to unload a LOT of salary with this move, so I don’t think it requires multiple top prospects. I think you build a deal around Riley and guys like Muller, Langeliers/Contreras, et al while keeping Waters and Pache around. Arenado, plus a Freeman extension, will tie up a lot of payroll, so keeping the OF cheap for as long as possible may be necessary.
@bravesfan – that’s a tough sell. I like the Braves’ also, having seen many TBS out of market games back in the day. He would definitely fit at 3B and cover a lot of checkmarks that they need, especially with Freddie playing well the last couple of years and wanting to reach the WS before his career ends.
I think the Braves’ can take some risk with sending pitching prospects, especially signing Smyly and Morton for this season. So, you have Ynoa included in that list you’ve mentioned.
You think they’d give up Soroka?
Great get Nolan out of the West.
Careful Cards. He’s 30 now, making a ton of money, coming off a bad ( but short) season, possibly injured, and built up his stats in Colorado.
Yes, this looks a lot like Goldschmidt. Enamored with a player, but making a play for him several years too late.
Goldschmidt was a top hitter last year and will only get better with more lineup protection.
Matt Holliday came off a bad half season in Oakland and is a Cardinal legend now. Low key all star veteran…yeah that seems straight out of the Cardinals playbook.
And Goldschmidt was a very very good hitter last year and pitchers didn’t even have to really give him anything to hit imagine if you had a couple guys to help out so he could actually get something to hit
He is definitely a Goldschmidt case. and like Stan Lee pointed out, Goldy brought back the mojo last year. The Central is so bad that a trade for Arenado, barring an ask of Carlson or Hudson in return (although less so Hudson IMO – pitchers are plentiful in STL), will vault the Cards into the pole position. The pitching is there already. They need someone to replace MCarp. Stat.
I didn’t wanna part with Hudson last year, and still don’t, but with him missing 2021, I’d include him if it got the deal done. Cardinals seem to have a better history developing pitchers than hitters, for the most part, so it would be worth the risk. And Colorado wanted him a year ago because he’s a sinker baller. If they don’t intend to contend (that sounded weird) this year, then they may be willing to take him now to have him for 2022 and beyond.
Nolan has only had 1 season where he was injured out of 8. He the best defensive 3B with a above average bat.
Away from the Dodgers and out of the NL West… yes please.
-Padres fan
I felt the same way when Darvish left the Cubs and Taillon left the Pirates.
Felt the same way when Pujols left the central only to have the Astros move to the AL West.
False sympathy Astros fan. By the time the Astros were any good (2015), Albert wasn’t any more….
In today’s baseball economics.. the prospect capital needed won’t be as high if the Cards are willing to take on the money.
Rockies are the worst run team in sports. Period.
Worse that the Houston Texans, NY Jets, Ottawa Senators, and Sacramento Kings?
There are worse NFL and NHL teams you neglected to mention.
Hello? Detroit Lions. One playoff win in 63 years. One family has owned it in all that time despite a couple thousand players, more than a dozen head coaches, heck three stadiums…but one owner. Worst in sports hands down. Bam!
Definitely the worst organization I’ve ever seen, and they’ve made an art of being consistently mediocre across several generations. The Lions are the lone argument against the saying, “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.”
Worse than reds ?
They aren’t even the worst run team in the NL. Pittsburgh is waving their hands.
I’d say pirates reds and Rockies are 3 worse before even considering another team. Then prob Miami. But first 3 teams- they fall into category of worst in professional sports
Pirates put out a respectable roster last 8 years. Will be back doing that in 2 or 3 years. Miami ownership is fairly new and looks to have team trending up.
Do it.
Do it.
Nolan Gorman, Matt Carpenter, and Genesis Cabrera for Nolan Arenado and cash.
It would have to be a lot of cash!
Carp would have to waive his NTC. And that’s definitely not enough. You’re looking at 3-4 of Gorman, Liberatore, Cabrera, Hudson and maybe some other prospects. Between Fowler and Carp and their NTC, I’m not certain if he would waive it, but Fowler did come up with Colorado so who knows. Plus, there’s the chance they may eat his salary they’d have to pay anyway and waive him and let him become a free agent.
st louis is being ran by idiots
I think you mean run by morans.
(For those who don’t get the joke, the “morans” thing is an old Cardinals meme.)
Really, “ran?”
ran, yes. run is past tense
Just get er done. Arenado is a star but I am tired of hearing about him already. LOL
How many times is this going to be a story? This rumor comes around every spring and every summer Matt Carpenter is hitting balls into a shift at a .210 clip.
He still gets on base though, which is what really matters. His power has declined a little bit but his career OBP is north of .370, which is nothing to shake a fist at.
Yeah career… not the past 2 seasons. I like the guy but he is declining quickly and shouldn’t be a regular starter anymore
Carpenter, Fowler, and Gorman for Arenado.
No way that trade offer flies. Colorado will want more prospects if you expect them to take that much salary back. They need salary relief right now.
By paying out a little now, Colorado gets out of a huge commitment for the future.
Total salary relief would be enormous. That actually seems like a fair trade.
That is a way fair trade IMO too. They would pay roughly the same in payroll for a year or two, but gain Gorman and still way more than 100MM after Fowler and Carpenter leave. I think that a prospect only gets packaged with Carpenter – otherwise it’s just a salary dump to STL, more or less. Goldschmidt returned prospects because he was a one-year, reasonably priced star. Paying Arenado market rate for the next six years is not such a blessing. That’s a huge contract.
The Cardinals have been getting bashed for not spending any money when the Division is being handed to them. Now, all of sudden they are in talks to acquire Arenado. This sounds like somebody in the St. Louis front office calling a baseball media guy to get the story out to make it seem like they are doing something when they really are not serious about making the move. This is why “nothing is close” was added.
The Cards NEVER do that. They are the most tight lipped franchise in the game. Most trades arent in the public until almost complete or even complete.
Yup. I’ve questioned their basic silence and wondered if maybe they were working on something.
There would need to be a salary offset getting him down to something like a $25M AAV.
The Rockies reportedly throwing in $50M, which takes the AAV down to just a tick under $25M. Well worth it. The Cardinals just acquired a future HOFer at 30.
If the Rockies trade Arenado, that means they have no delusions of competing this year. Which means that Trevor Story and Jon Gray should also get traded. Not that Rockies management would necessarily do such sensible things.
Dexter Fowler coming back to Colorado might be fun; the fans like him. But he isn’t really a replacement for David Dahl because I don’t think Fowler can play CF anymore.
Clearing the deck wouldn’t be the worst idea. They could become spenders and contenders in 2023-24.
Agree. The Rockies are playing for 5th in the division with or without Arenado and Story. They need way too many pieces to get it done with those guys. A full rebuild is probably necessary. Trade Arenado, Story, Gray, Marquez, and anyone else with value. Stock that farm system.
Arenado has been great, but I think the Rockies would be wise to shed as much of his salary as possible. But then again, the Rockies, too, should have traded Story this offseason and really tore the whole thing down. If there is any org that needs a total reset, it’s this one. And btw, still baffled by that Blackmon extension. Didn’t get it then, especially don’t get it now.
With the money he’s owed no way I give up any top prospects. Woodford, Oviedo, Malcolm Nunez, low level guy is about all I’d do, and I’d rather have Story and move DeJong to 3B.
I would for sure! He’s a generational talent on a long-term deal. If the cardinals make this trade, they better make sure he’s happy to avoid that opt-out clause. If st louis gets him for 6 years, he’ll be worth every penny of prospect capital they used on him.
“Generational Talent” needs to be retired. Mike Trout has his generational talent…everyone else is just typical generational all star.
eyeroll.
What if the cards included dejong? Like dejong, woodford, jordan walker, oviedo for story and arenado? Or even kept dejong, moved him to second. Say story, and arenado(full contracts), for gorman, oviedo, hudson, Whitley, woodford and fowler? Make it a blockbuster. Some may think talent wise the cards end would be short but arenado is due alot of money and story is a potential free agent
Man, those opt outs are a real nightmare if you’re trying to trade for this guy. There’s so much uncertainty and so much that could go wrong that I can’t even see how it could be worth the trouble.
On the plus side though, you’re getting a great defensive player who makes all your pitchers instantly better, and I could see how someone with such an intense fire and desire to win could be beneficial for any club.
Not much chance of Nolan opting out when he will be in his 30s and is already overpaid compared to the market. He is thought to be willing to waive the NTC if traded to the cards.
Rockies know they have to deal him. That opt-out is all but certain to happen if they don’t. He wants to win and (rightfully in my eyes) he doesn’t see the colorado front office sharing in this pursuit.
.985 OPS at Coors
.793 everywhere else.
Please let the Cards tie up $35M a year for five years for this guy.
Exactly. And those five years will be his 30’s.
He wont hit .985 in St louis but he should hit .900. Almost all players hit worse on the road.
.793 with GG defense would be a disappointment but still a really good player
Not that much worse on the road. A lot of times depends on home park. I figure around .850 in St Louis. Not that it’s happening.
Considering his age, his disappointing 2020 season, and his home/road splits, I’d be pretty wary about dealing for him if I were the Cardinals. If the Rockies were willing to cover a large portion of the money it may be worth it, but as a team with a somewhat limited payroll, I think that money could be better spent elsewhere.
Cards had a deal done for Stanton but he wanted to go to the Yankees. Marlins got Starlin Castro back and thats all.. Stanton was a recent MVP.
Cards wont have to give up much unless they send bad 1 year contracts back
Just because the Yankees fleeced the Marlins for stanton and that huge contract doesn’t mean the Rockies will get nothing back from St. Louis. The diamondbacks got some value back for Goldschmidt when that trade happened.
Stanton was a salary dump for the Marlins despite him winning an MVP. The Marlins could’ve kept Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna and it wouldn’t move the needle for the team as they couldn’t afford any pitching.
The Yankees fleeced the Marlins???
Most Yankees fans would argue the opposite and would happily reverse the trade.
A huge long term contract like Stanton’s or Arenado’s can be total boat anchors on payroll flexibility.
Other than the money the marlins got back WHAT from the yankees? Nothing. I was merely talking about on-field talent.
Other way around.
Why on earth are so many people trashing Nolan Arenado!? It’s literally bizzaro world in here. I’m sensing very few cardinals fans are commenting and these are haters who don’t want to see St Louis land another STUD!
DeWitt doesn’t like to spend money. Arenado is 30 years old and signed on a long term deal at $35 million a year and his numbers out of Colorado are a major drop-off. I know Holiday was too, but there is reason to be concerned about it and what they are willing to give up. Like I’ve said, if it’s Woodford, Oviedo, Malcolm Nunez, and a low level guy then fine, but would still rather have Story and move DeJong to 3B.
I’d want Story just because of position scarcity.
Disagree. You’ll be the same guy singing the cardinals praises once they make the deal. What if Story cost the same as Arenado? Still gonna whine?
If they trade for him of course I’ll root for him, as I do for cardinal wins and anybody in the uniform to be the best they can be. But that doesn’t mean giving up any talent or financially just any player makes sense to acquire, especially when ownership doesn’t spend and the PBO and GM don’t like to shake things up. I’d give the same package for Story as Arenado. Arenado comes with the chance of only 1 year, because of opt out and if he doesn’t it’s a huge contract. Story only has 1 year left under contract. There is no way I’m giving up a top organizational talent though with his age, contract, numbers outside Colorado, and coming off injury.
Story is 2 years younger and has been more valuable than Arenado three years running. I’d be fine with that deal.
People love to cite his 793 career OPS away from CO, but if you take away his first two years acclimating you MLB, his road OPS is 829 and 162 game avg is 36hr 103rbi… but a lot of people want to try to convince others that he sucks away from CO.. and his D is so elite he would make a huge impact if the shoulder is okay
Oh wow 829. Where’s my 200 million at, I want this guy.
If the Shoulder is okay. If he doesn’t opt out to run home to LA after one year. If, if, if, if, if.
He’d be moving from the friendliest park in baseball for RH power to the third toughest for RH power. You really think he’d maintain that 36 HR/103RBI pace playing his home games at Busch? I don’t.
Ok so you schmucks clearly don’t want Nolan Arenado on the cardinals. That’s fine, teams don’t need superstars to win. Personally I think you’re out of your mind and talking yourself out of an elite talent but whatever, you know your cardinals! Hope a rival gets him and makes you look so stupid!
No clue Moneyballer, extremely odd indeed , especially considering your probably getting half off the first years rent with Fowler/Carp
Stl should be thrilled………….Meanwhile; In another far away land, Cashmans scowl wrinkles get more pronounced every day from Stanton and he has to start wearing eye concealer while he stares into photoshopped pictures of Nolan in pinstripes
You read my mind Cap! Agree with you.
Cards/Rox discuss Arenado. Talks aren’t close. Repeat.
Even though Arenado is a talent you don’t pass up, trading away prospects for aging superstars has never been the Cardinals way. Granted he is closer to 30 than 40 but sooner rather than later that contract is going to really hurt a payroll. I was surprised when they picked up Goldy but after seeing the return St. Louis definitely won that trade. I guess it all depends on what St Louis would be sending back to Colorado. The Cards will undoubtedly hold onto any unblocked top prospects especially pitchers.
I’ve never understood why the opt out is such a huge deal. There’s very little chance he opts out, even if he blows up this year and wins an mvp. Plus, even if he did opt out your team would have $30 plus million a yr opened up to spend elsewhere. It’s not like Arenado is being back much on that contract either. I saw several polls with GM’s that thought he’d get between $125-150 million if he was a free agent now. So basically he’s $50 million overpaid over kid of his contract.
*bringing back much
I agree completely.
Agreed. That opt out means absolutely nothing. Nobody is turning down that cash in this market at age 31.
Right. Why would Arenado take a huge chance to make slightly more if things work out? He wouldn’t take that chance. He’s not opting out.
It’s a big deal because the Rockies want a talent package like the team getting Arenado is getting 6 guaranteed years. They aren’t. Arenado could bolt for LA after a single season and then you’re out 32.5 million plus a huge prospect package and you have to find a 3B again.
Springer got 6/150 as a baseline
I think Arenado would get 5/150 which is 14 mill less than what he will have after this year 5/164
Not really that huge over 5 years so its almost fair to say hes close to net neutral…..def not going to draw some of the packages some think in here tho and one of Carp or Fowler will have to agree to waive b/c Stl aint adding 35 AAv on top of the 10-15 they still have to spend in FA
But Nolan for Carp or Fowler plus modest draft capital has good bones for both sides
C&C it’s almost neutral to Arenado if you’re right about 5/$150, but that’s probably off for two reasons.
One he likely gets 5 / $135 since $25M AAV is what he’s worth. Recall- everyone acknowledges that the last year or two of Springer is an overpay.
We just saw Realmuto leave $30-$40 million on the table when compared to the original Marlins offer. The market place will squeeze an older player leaving Coors the same way.
Maybe Arenado works a 8/$200 deal with LAD and comes out whole including $1M for the waiver of the opt out if LAD actually cares. . This is what a savvy big market team like LAD should do right now with their financial might, strong win now team needing a 3B and exploiting a covid wracked market. They could probably even dump a bad contract if they have one or care to do a three team deal so another team dumps a contract and provides some prospect capital.
Just get it done with Rockies. You made promises to a marquee player and didn’t follow through. Good luck in the future trying to attract/retain big free agents if you don’t move Arenado and leave him disgruntled.
Free agents usually go to wherever they can make the most money. Even pitchers would gladly go to Colorado if the pay day was much better than other offers.
DeWitt doesn’t like to spend money. Arenado is 30 years old and signed on a long term deal at $35 million a year and his numbers out of Colorado are a major drop-off. I know Holiday was too, but there is reason to be concerned about it and what they are willing to give up. Like I’ve said, if it’s Woodford, Oviedo, Malcolm Nunez, and a low level guy then fine, but would still rather have Story and move DeJong to 3B.
You can really take a Rockies players road numbers as accurate. It’s been proven repeatedly that the change in altitude makes it much harder to adjust on the road back to normal altitude. So their road splits are always horrendous. With that said, there’s no doubt that his home field stats have been bumped up from playing in Col. too. I don’t see the Cards owner taking on that contract either, and if Colorado has to pay it down a lot what’s the point of dealing him?
Numbers also fave suppression playing in NL West parks too.
If they took Dex ( was a fan fav in CO.before and hits very well in coors.) back that would offset enough for the cards to get the AAV down to a more reasonable number.
That would also give the fans something so it doesnt look like a complete salary dump to the avg ticket buyer.
a mid level prospect or 2 going back would be reasonable as well.
Cardinals spend big every year.
Edman Liberatore Gorman and Bader. Somethin like that
Then I wouldn’t come close to doing it. No way I’m giving up any top guys for him, let alone 2 and Edman.
Ha Ha…no way that happens,,,I am sure the trade might be centered around Gorman …but that is probably the only top prospect the Rockies will get
you live in Colorado and are partaking in some weed aren’t you? in this scenario, the Cardinal’s get Story, Gray, Arenado and 50 million, correct? c’mon man, let’s make realistic trade proposals.
I dont feel like spending 60-70 million and 3-4 young players is worth the trade off of whats available on the open market for the next 2 years. Just go get turner and wong or turner and gregorious and you upgrade 3b and 2b for less money and no lost prospects.
This guy knows what’s up.
With baseball looking at another season with little to no fans in the bleachers, labor negotiation apocalypse, teams tightening belts, and the crush of killer players entering free agency next off-season; there is no way Aranado opts out of this massive contract. If there is true belief in Gorman as a 3rd base centerpiece, hold firm and walk past “Nado as if he was a nice thought but better on your fantasy team.
Would have to think a deal would be centered around Nolan Gorman headed the other way. Maybe Gorman and two younger mid to upper level pitching prospects.
Braves/Rox Trade Conversation
AA: Hey, I heard you guys were floating Nolan.
JB: Yeah AA, we have been scouting your system. I think a good starting point would be…
AA: Woah woah JB, let’s stop right there. We aren’t THAT interested.
They always scout other teams systems. Lol
Woah so that’s how that works …………….
I dunno, some flow of talent INTO the NL Central would at least bring partial entropy to the growing imbalance in MLB thermodynamic equilibrium and we could see an emergence of an underlying pattern of self-organization. Though I feel it will also disconnect the vital feedback loops on a divisional level, such that non-linear phenomena will surface in places like the NL West leading to fractal intangibles, such as the return of the relevance of the knuckleball. Just saying.
You changed my mind. I want Arenado in St. Louis so that the knuckleball comes back. Wainwright could pitch until he was 100 throwing a knuckler.
Now it’s getting silly.
The Mets are not involved.
What about the Blue Jays?
Another update.
Yeah, those Mets may not be so deep-pocketed anymore
It’s odd seeing cardinal fans not want to give up one or 2 of their best prospects for a proven perennial gold glover/allstar at the corner. Gorman and Carlson are hyped to be good/great but Arenado has already been great for the last 5+ years. There’s no guarantee those kids turn into all stars or even good players. Unless there’s something there that says one or both those guys equal or out produce what Arenado is capable of. If you’re worried about his splits, idk I wouldn’t hold that against him. I guess coming from a yankee fan when ima little biased, when we get Rockies out of Colorado they flourish. I’d be willing to bet the same for Arenado and story if he gets traded as well.
I get that the money isn’t attractive but we’re on the verge of making at best a 2/3 starter the 2nd highest aav. Paying top dollar on a perennial allstar and a consensus top 3 3rd baseman year in year out isn’t as bad as paying a mid rotation top money. This isn’t a Stanton or Cano contract that are albatrosses. Arenado is a proven commodity and prospects are just that, prospects. 3rd Base is stacked and to have one of the top guys isn’t a bad thing imo.
If Gorman isn’t in the deal he will likely replace Goldschmidt at 1B when his contract is over. The Rockies have Outfielders so not sure Fowler would be going back so Carpenter and a few prospects make sense. I don’t think Carlson will be one of them though. Perhaps Elehuris Montero, who could be ready to play 3B next season, and Mateo Gil, who could replace Story at SS next year.
I agree with you. Cant believe some people would actually think they would give up Carlson and gorman and take that whole contract lol
I hope it doesn’t happen. If it does so be it. As long as Colorado doesn’t trade Blackmon. Last year ended my streak of 5 consecutive years I went to Coors field. Blackmon has the best walk up music throughout the league.
Don’t do it. Just like Harper deserves to die on the vine where he is and count his money.
Breaking news is great, but these are the kinds of articles that make me love MLBTR so much. Very well written and informative, nice work Steve!
How did Dexter Fowler get a full no trade clause ?
Bad gm?
Cards cut bait at the right time with Pujols. My fear with the Goldy/Nolan corners is that the team will be on the “other side of the curve” with both.
The Dodgers refused to offer Lux and May for Betts would they offer them for Arenando
He has a 785 ops at dodger stadium and is due almost 200 million so what do you think?
The Rockies do owe Arenado too much money but they also have some other good pieces to move. I hate all these rebuilds and with so many going on its hard to extract fair value.
Thing is, if Arenado is as unhappy as he says he is then I would think the Rockies are really only on the books for this next seasons salary and then they make him decide how bad he truly wants out of there. Walk away from all that guaranteed money (164 million) or stay and be unhappy. If things are back to normal next offseason I still don’t think Arenado could get 5yr/164mil. Maybe 6 years at 25mil/yr if he plays well this season….point is I don’t think the Rockies should send money to move him. I would think he would take a little bit of a loss by opting out and then go play somewhere he wants to be.
I would think Carpenter and Gorman OR G.Cabrera and 1 lower level guy for Arenado would work for both sides.
He’s not going to walk away from that money unless maybe it’s like $1MM/yr.
I wonder if the Cardinals could get the Rockies to add German Marquez to Arenado for a package of young talent (within reason). Now that would make things interesting.
The acquisition of Arenado is just too expensive in terms of players and dollars. He just isn’t capable of delivering value to justify $199M in remaining salary. Buyer’s remorse is a practical certainty
I have to say, given his age, road numbers, massive salary, opt out and terrible/injured 2020, I don’t see Arenado as an asset. In other words, I don’t see that Colo can ask for anything of consequence. especially with his public spat and dissatisfaction.. If they rec’d Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martinez, perhaps a Johan Oviedo and another non-prospect/prospect (a failed high round pick or non prospect who put up misleadingly good looking numbers in 2019), I think they’d be thrilled, even if the Cards insisted they pay off $30 million of the money Arenado’s due..
And having said that, I don’t think the Cards should pursue Arenado.. They seem to be on the back end of their “window” with Yadi/Wainwright about to vanish and their top prospects (aside from Carlson/Liberatore) still a couple years from blossoming.
.
Funny. Comments every day about “billionaire owners” refusing to pay deserving players, pocketing the $, stiffing their fans.
After 2 consecutive yrs in the playoffs, a young rotation & increased attendance, a few impact prospects on the horizon, ownership goes all in on their best player. A 28 yr old Platinum Glove, power hitting 3B, whose only desire is to win. One who spends all of his time working to be the best player in the game.
This non-billionaire owner chooses to reward the fans & player by paying, then market price, before he hits FA & the team in a contention window.
The typical responses on here. “Worst run team in sports!” “Rox are a mess”. “Management has no idea what their doing”.
Unless of course, they go along with the posters & even writers on here, that a tear down/rebuild is the only way to do anything. Accumulate anyone labeled a prospect with a # < 31 next to their name.
Then of course, they’d instantaneously become geniuses.
They aren’t well ran. I admire ownerships commitment to winning but they need better management. Nolan contract was terrible. What should have been a safety locking up guaranteed money ended up being paying him best case hit the jackpot on free agent market deal.
A GM that gave the contracts for Fowler and Carpenter shouldn’t be a GM. Those are ridiculous.
Fowler had several other comparable offers. Carpenter was coming off a top 10 MVP finish when he signed the extension.
I think Fowler would take it as a chance to rebuild better value, Carp not so sure
1 of those 2 would def be in the trade and Col would be Ok with that as both are expiring after this year and your not wedging a 35AAV into a medium-ish market right now w/out taking back something chunky for 2021 at least
Dear MLBTR, just because someone in the Mets or Yankees organization open their mouths doesn’t automatically qualify them was “contenders” or even worthy of merit to mention it. Of course the Mets have a speculative tweet on their behalf. NYC as a whole operates by speculation.
Carpenter and/or Fowler would be nuts to not accept a deal to Colorado.It would be a great place for them to go and build some value heading into free agency.
More like give them retirement ideas….
Yes because gms aren’t aware how coors field massively inflates numbers.
This again? Guy ain’t going nowhere. Terrible contract. Teams aren’t worried about him opting out. If he guaranteed he would opt out it would increase his trade value.
Looks like you’re wrong… As usual.
How so? 50 million and another opt out is reported. Still looks like they aren’t super concerned about him opting out. More like concerned they will have him the entire contract.
Rocks need to get this done even if it means a minimal prospect exchange –
Id love if they kicked in 3 mill per yr for the remainder of the contract to kick up the prospects but just cleaning the books would be a win here-
Id look to dish Story Gray and Oberg at/before the break as well- They got time on Marquez to hold him the season if the chose –
Books would be pretty clean by next year and the prospects they get should shoot them up closer to avg rather than the 28th they were ranked midseason last year-
They gotta build that farm up relative to the Division or its not only going to be a tough first half of the decade, but second as well
Evert team in top half – Sf -13th Dodgers 11th Arz-9th Sd- 3rd (altho went down some obv since)
Arenado trade to St. Louis is not going to happen
Nolan for Pollock Kelley one of Rios/Gonzo one of Bush/Cartaya one of White/knack and a lottery ticket. Thats a huge get albeit they take back a lot of 2021 cash but thats what gets them the boat
Dodgers take full Nolan contract thereafter
Its more way more Bang for their buck than they would get from Stl in prospects but Div rival makes it ohhh sooo tough- Dodgers would be able to play at the 210 CBT this year with this trade; sorry Turner
You do realize the cards have alot of really good prospects. 4 in the top 68. So saying they would get more bang for their buck is inaccurate. Also the cards could easily trump that proposal. But the real question is would they? Also why would the Dodgers give up that much and be over the luxury next year?
Braves should offer Riley, Muller, Langeliers. See if they would take Inciarte.
Any deal for Arenado, whether it’s St. Louis, Atlanta, or somewhere else, is going to be based around the Nolan money, not the prospects.
Wainwright, quite possibly Yadi…now if they pull this trade off & round out that rotation
Cards could be the team to watch in the central!
Heck yeah!!
With Darvish and Bauer out of the division the Cards are probably slight favorites already.
EastCoastCanuck: Have you seen the central. It’s going to be hard to watch any team in this division.
@gocards
It’s the weakest division in the MLB. Yet I’m pretty certain a first place finish in the central yields a playoff birth.
Cards fans can at least have some relief their FO is finally beginning to place chips on the table this off-season.
The John Heyman kiss of death.
He’s not as bad as Nightengale, which is not to say he’s good either.
You know, I think I was thinking of Nightengale. I stand by my comment, though.
Rockies want out of that contract so bad if the Cards were pushing hard they woulda had by now
Everything that is still on the market I hope the Braves get him but they gotta pay up on Freddie’s extension first because I don’t want to see them taking back that kind of salary and then saying they don’t got the money to pay Freeman
Does this mean Goldschmidt is going to be traded? Have to think Cards want to off his contract in this deal.
Absolutely
No.
What??? Don’t think you might hurt yourself.
This is nonsense the richest owners in American sports and they own the team for tax purposes
How does MLB allow that but won’t let Mark Cuban own a team ridiculous
15 mins away from the Bronx and I had to grow up a Brave fan
To hell with you Dale Murphy
Dave Winfield, Don Mattingly, Willie Randolph, Paggs, Louisiana Lightning, Ricky all these greats to choose from and I had to pick Dale Murphy as my favorite player ughhhhh
AA gotta go
I had enough
MLB won’t let Cuban in bc he’s a dbag. He’d get his SJW jag going and team up with Tony Clark and Kap. They don’t need more issues. They can f it up all by themselves. Wait till the next CBA negotiations (after any 2021 vivid related disagreements) and see how dysfunctional it gets.
If this goes down and I am very skeptical…, Gorman, Bader and Carp. Bader to roam center in coors has been discussed before, Carlson takes over center and moves to right next year when fowler is finally gone and Thomas goes to center full time. Carp agrees to trade because he wants to start. Throw in lower level pitcher not named Libertore- Cards love him and they feel they need to keep him because of giving Tampa the Babe Ruth of last fall.
The NY Mets should obtain Aaron Arenado via trade with the Colorado Rockies for J.D Davis, Robinson Cano, Jeryl Familia, D. Batances and any of the three rookie right handed pitchers the NY Mets just obtained from the Toronto Blue Jays for Steven Matz.
The Colorado Rockies require alot of pitching help. The Colorado Rockies would provide financial assistance to the NY Mets towards Aaron Arenado’s $199 million dollar six (6) year contract. Aaron Arenado would be much more beneficial to the Mets with hitting and defense than Trevor Bauer.
I don’t see how they could say no.
Is that nolan’s brother or dad?
You need a few more malapropisms if you really want to make people believe you’ve created a legitimate account.
NYMF2021 You’re a shameless homer, but that trade actually is on the right track.
Colorado has a contract that’s significantly underwater and it’s attached to a guy who’s bitching and moaning about the team. A double nightmare.
You offer some player value and also force Colorado to eat some bad contracts. I’d do that trade as Colorado. It’s a win now trade for the NYM and they probably go for it even though they hit a CBT brick wall in a couple years.
NYM have a puncher’s chance at the WS with this trade. Uncle Steve will eat the 1st and maybe 2nd year CBT penalties to get additional pitching at 2021and 2022 trade deadlines if needed.
Nice job
The Chicago Cubs need to hire Chris Bosio ! He was 2016 World Series pitching coach.Chris is great with reclamation projects.If the Cubs pickup Jake and Jeff ,they should hire Chris .He would be the perfect fit with David Ross !
The Chicago Cubs need to hire Chris Bosio ! He was 2016 World Series pitching coach.Chris is great with reclamation projects.If the Cubs pickup Jake and Jeff ,they should hire Chris .He would be the perfect fit with David Ross !
Small market teams that sign players to long term huge contracts set themselves up for failure. How much better off would the Rockies have been if they would have moved him before the big contract and made a haul on top prospects, and wouldn’t had to pay 50 million.