Right-hander Yu Darvish came close to winning his first Cy Young award last season, finishing second in the voting to Trevor Bauer, but that wasn’t enough to keep him in a Cubs uniform. The Cubs decided last Sunday to trade Darvish to the Padres in a deal that was officially completed earlier this week. Chicago received five players in return for Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini, though whether the team made the right call is certainly up for debate.
In moving Darvish, the cost-cutting Cubs saved almost all of the $62MM remaining ($59MM, to be exact) on the six-year, $126MM contract they gave the former Ranger and Dodger before 2018. Caratini, meanwhile, is only due a little over $1MM next season via arbitration, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2023. So, in the end, the Cubs let go of a front-line starter and a solid, inexpensive catcher in this deal. The Padres, who are clearly pushing for a World Series, should benefit in at least the near term. After all, they upgraded their roster – one that went 37-23 in 2020 – without surrendering any of their absolute best prospects.
For parting with Darvish and Caratini, the Cubs received a bit of immediate help in righty Zach Davies, who was outstanding in his lone season with the Padres last year. But the 27-year-old Davies is only controllable through next season, meaning he may not be a long-term piece for the Cubs, and the ex-Brewer has been more of a solid starter than a top-of-the-line hurler for most of his career. In other words, the Cubs can’t realistically expect the 2021 version of Davies to turn in production similar to the output Darvish gave them last season.
Along with Davies, the Cubs secured some good prospects in a pair of shortstops – Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana – as well as two outfielders in Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena. All four ranked among the top 20 farmhands in a very good Padres system at the time of the trade. MLB.com now places Preciado 10th, Caissie 11th, Santana 17th and Mena 18th among Cubs prospects. The Cubs are dreaming on those four eventually turning into legitimate major leaguers, but even if that does happen, it’s going to take some time. Aside from Santana, who turned 20 last month, every member of the group is a teenager.
(Poll links for app users: Padres, Cubs)
Cubs have gotten off easy so far
A salary dump from a multi-billion dollar corporation, after laying off 100 of their own hard working employees deserves nothing but an “F” in my book.
You don’t get to be a multi-billion dollar company by being stupid. The Cubs corrected the wrong they made in the first place by signing Darvish. He will fizzle like a wet firecracker with the Padres. Davies will be the more successful of the two. Smart move by the Cubs.
It’s not a salary dump. Yu’s value will not be higher it in the next 3 years than right now.
Yeah but the Cubs didn’t get return value for him. They dumped him but a bunch of kids who never played pro ball. Salary dump.
Metslvt17- AND Zach Davies, who is possibly entering his prime. I could see Davies out-pacing Darvish next season, to be honest. Davies was lights out this season.
classicmixup, “It’s not a salary dump.” I beg to differ with you, The Cubs didn’t get a “Luis Patino” in the deal or one of the Padres other untouchable prospects. The prospects the Cubs got are a “coin-toss” to make it to the majors and become regulars. Zack Davies is a good pitcher and pitched WAY OVER HIS HEAD for the Padres in 2020, but he is only under contract for one more year. It was a salary dump trade.
myaccount, YES Zack Davies was great for the Padres in 2020! He’s ONLY under contract for one more season. Will the Cubs resign him?
None of this yrs draft picks and most of last yrs only got a little bit of pro ball experience. If & it’s a BIG if 1 or 2 of the 4 prospects work out it’d be worth ALL of the griping & complaining that going on now.
Dude wake up! Every team is losing money. Cubs just spent a ton on renovations and a new cable channel. They overspent and getting nothing in return
Cubs got a bunch of teenagers for salary relief. Hated seeing Caratini go as he is a good switch hitter who was under team control for a few more years Contreras will be sent to the Braves next for some arms .
Preller will sign four more guys just like the ones he gave up in two weeks during the International signing period.
Unfortunately-AND fortunately-lif is not that simple
If Preller’s such a genius, why isn’t the Padres roster loaded with his homegrown draft picks and international signings?
Don’t the Padres have 1 of the most loaded rosters in mlb right now? Isn’t Preller responsible for that? Does it really matter how he did it? Why on Earth would you complain about your GM when he took your team from terrible to likely World Series contender?
I wouldn’t call Tatis and Machado a “loaded” roster. We’re finally getting some proven SPs, but (hopefully) we’ve got an actual full season coming up.
And all I’ve heard since August 2014 is how this low-integrity unethical “rockstar” is a genius, and how he built the “Number 1 Farm System” in baseball history (very slight hyperbole), and how we were going to be in the playoffs in 4 … uh, 5 … uh, 6 years!
When you get right down to it, maybe my beef is more with some of the gullible Preller sycophants, who don’t know baseball as much as they think they do.
Contreras isn’t the mid order answer and between d’Arnaud now and William Contreras/Shea Langeliers later, not giving up arms for that. Other teams will get a lot more value out of him.
I don’t think the braves will go after Contreras. Travis d`Arnoud was amazing last year and they also have little brother Williams Contreras that of hope they use as a backup.
Dervish only had a couple good seasons in Chicago. For what he’s making, I would have went after Bauer. Or someone more reliable. But I hope it works out for San Diego. I’m sick of seeing the Dodgers cruise through every year. They need some competition!
He was only there for a couple
Actually, three seasons.
Jaa1968 –
It’s not like Bauer hasn’t been on and off over his entire career. Look at his numbers after the trade to Cincinnati last year. Horrible. Horrible! In fact, Bauer has had exactly TWO seasons in his career with an ERA under 4.18. Bauer is just as likely to suck next year as Darvish is
A Contreras for Contreras trade would be funny.
Cubs: Hey Willson, we’re trading you to the Braves.
Willson: Great! I can be on the same team as my brother!
Cubs: Weeelllll….
why would the Braves need the bigger brother when they got the younger brother coming up? It’ll be nice to see though. Another team that has that luxury is the Miami Marlins with the Mesa brothers! They both come from a legendary father sports man just like the Gurriel brothers!
A bunch of teenagers and a very underrated MOR arm. Shoot, if Davies replicates his 2020 performance I think it’s safe to call him a #2.
It’s probably more likely that Davies is the pitcher who threw over 600 innings of nearly 4.00 ERA ball for the Brewers than he is the guy that dominated over a small sample size of 69 innings in a pitchers haven.
That’s likely true. But a lot of teams – most teams – would be happy with that.
Yeah, for a #4 or 5 starter, but it seems like a lot of people on here are thinking he’ll out-produce Darvish and be a #2 starter because of those 69 innings
Anybody who thinks Davies is a bona fide #2 is … nuts.
Agreed 100%
Cubs could save face by using that $59M they saved on another SP, so they can at least point to Davies and the FA and say “we turned one good pitcher into two good pitchers”.
They will most likely not be doing this, because owners hate doing the right thing.
Actually the Cubs can “save face” several different ways.
1.) and hopefully this doesn’t happen but Darvish regresses.
2.) one or more of those high upside prospects blossom into a super star
3.) as you said, the Cubs re-invest the money saved for another starter this season
4.) the Cubs re-invest some of the money saved to re-sign one or more of their core players
5.) the Cubs re-invest the money saved over the duration of Darvish’s contract next season when the free agent crop is a lot more lush with impact free agents.
From the Cubs perspective I gave this trade a “B” only because they didn’t get a top 75 prospect back in return. There are a couple really good ideas behind dealing Darvish and myself, as a Cub fan, need to wait until the smoke clears a little before having a typical knee jerk reaction to the trade package.
The first thing I like is that Hoyer went with a highly talented young players with advanced contact skills at the plate. Not to mention speed. It’s just a completely different direction than Epstein in this regards who preferred guys closer to ML ready with their own flaws and high strike out rates.
Next, the Cubs struck while the iron was hot with Darvish. None of us are scouts, fans are not, commentators are not, etc. so even though the package of players seems to be less than great, we simply do not know. What we do know is that the Cubs did clear 60 million dollars over the next three years owed to a guy turning 35.
Although I hated to see Darvish traded and immediate reaction was panic like everyone else, I like Hoyer’s mindset here. I feel the Cubs missed the boat under Epstein in holding onto their older players too long. Zobrist being a prime example, should have been traded. Quintana should have been traded when the Cubs picked up Hamels option a couple years ago and so on and so forth. It’s a great way to keep the farm system flush while continuing to field a competitive roster. Granted, you cannot do it with everyone because free agents simply would not sign but it is a strong model to follow if done correctly.
The last thing I like about it is the potential to use the money saved and the prospect capital wisely. As I said, next years free agent class is extremely deep with high impact talent. This year the free agent crop is thinner with a lot less suitors due to reduced capital. Clear some payroll, take advantage of some discount signings later in the free agency period, and have money to spend on free agency next season.
The prospects the Cubs acquired might end up being worth trading Yu Darvish. Maybe Davies outpitches Yu this season. The overpay here was throwing in Caratini and the $3 million.
I think Ricketts are pocketing the savings. There will be another short season because the owners will drag their feet. The players tired of being taken advantage of by the owners are going to strike (maybe no postseason this year or another short season next year).
I also was not a huge fan of adding Caratini, I don’t really care too much about the 3 million because the 3 million was based on how he pitched last season (where he finished in the Cy Young voting) so IMO, it was really only fair for the Cubs to pay that.
And you may be 100% correct about a short season as well as a potential lock out or strike moving forward with the CBA negotiations. Players are going to be angry after last season, they are going to be even more angry after this free agent signing period. Regardless of what every ill informed “fan” thinks, the Ricketts family came out of pocket and face significant losses. They had a HUGE bill due for the Wrigley renovations this year and they face potentially three straight seasons of revenue losses.
To be honest the Cubs should have committed to the rebuild 2 years ago. They could have gotten something for Bryant, Schwarbar, Lester, Quintana and if they went full blown rebuild Baez, Rizzo and Contreras and never taken on that Kimbrel contract and have a stacked farm system. But now all they can do is sell for pennies on the dollar. Although now was the perfect time to trade Darvish but I thought they should have gotten more.
Didn’t the Cubs just have a “rebuild” not that long ago?
Gave the Cubs an F for the huge salary dump for a rental and a lot of teenagers.
Padres a B because I don’t think Darvish is a guarantee, just ask the Dodgers.
If the Padres handle him like the Cubs did and let him be himself, he’ll probably do really well. That was the key to his turnaround in mid-2019. The guy has 10 different freakin’ pitches in his arsenal.
211 strikeouts vs 21 walks over his last 158 innings is just disgusting.
How many pitches a pitcher has doesnt matter look at Nolan Ryan he basically had 1 pitch The Express and a so-so breaking ball just to keep em honest. But you knew what was coming and there wasnt anything you could do about it.
Look at Daisuke Matsuzaka he had like 10 pitches too or even Yu Darvish from 2017 and 2018 he had those same pitches.
But heres a key to look at any players stats good or bad last season. They all played the same teams noone played out of division. It’s going to be a different animal when you play the Dodgers or pitch in Coors field. Plus the NL Central was the worst division in baseball so he will face better hitters in the West.
Personally I see him as a number 2 pitcher and I think he will regress some because I dont think he will repeat his Cy Young caliber performance pitching in the West. But still a great get for the Padres. But dont go in thinking you just traded for Greg Maddux circa 1992.
This comparison doesn’t really make much sense to me. Completely different pitchers, completely different circumstances. Darvish stands out not because of how many pitches he throws, but what he does with them.
You can dislike the analogy and still acknowledge the point
Darvish showed he is an elite pitcher vs some of the worst offenses in baseball. Does that really hold up when facing the entire league?
Central showed how much of a joke it was in the playoffs
Yu definitely did not have all 10 of those pitches before, considering he developed 2 of them during his time with the Cubs. The other teams pitching staffs also did not allow him to utilize them, hence my comment about the Cubs finally letting him be himself and doing what he wanted to do.
@Laughing@You – did he also ONLY face the worst offenses during the 2nd half of 2019 when he was just as dominant, if not more with a 142 walkless batter streak and a 93K/6BB ratio? It always tickles me when peolpe think 2020 was his only successful pitching stint with the Cubs.
You can tell yourself whatever qualifications you need to be happy with the numbers. I’m just saying. He beat up crappy competition and now you all are calling him an ace, supposed to lead a team to the World Series!
You may be disappointed
You’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you think he’s gonna duplicate those kind of pitching stats in the NL West. He will be good number 2 pitcher but the NL West has far superior players to the NL Central. Even the bad teams can hit there you’re not playing the Pirates or the Reds or Brewers or Cardinals
Btw the 4 out of the 5 worst offenses in terms of runs scored in baseball resided in the NL Central. (Granted the Cardinals played 58 games).
I’m not sure anyone thought the Padres were getting a 92 Maddux in this deal. I agree with your other points, going out of division matters and I think he fits as a #2 at this point. That being said, I think SD sees this as well and is looking at this as an accumulation of talent to support what they have core wise, more than getting a #1starter in name. The farm is still well stocked and its there to supplement the mlb squad in one form or another(call ups or trade capital, etc)
Laughing@you is correct. This is the same sample size that padres fans a buffing there chest about with will meyers, machado, and Davies etc. All career years in a small 60 game season, none of the padres players have shown they could do this over a full season against everyone. Darvish is no different, he played a weak division and put up huge numbers expecting him to put up those numbers in a “real” season is relatively unattainable. Padres, dodgers, giants, and rockies (unless blown up) are all great offenses compared to the central.
Once again, Darvish had a more dominant 2nd half of 2019. Stop saying “he didn’t produce it over a full season” or “he never played anyone outside of his own division”.
Oh you. Again. 9/15 2nd half starts WERE against the NL central
The rest were against offensively crappy SD, SF and Phil teams. Go look at his game logs. He faced some good luck facing BAD lineups in 2’d half 2019
@Laughing@You
We are all laughing @ you, because you didn’t even look up his game log from last year, where you would see his 12 game breakdown went:
Over .500 teams:
2 vs CWS
2 vs CIN
1 vs CLE
1 vs MIN
2 vs STL
Under .500 teams
2 vs MIL
1 vs KC
1 vs PIT
Know what youre talking about before spouting off just plain lies in future, thanks. Don’t disrespect the best current pitcher in baseball just because you dont like the trade.
It’s pointless to argue with Laughing@You. He is a Padres hater and will never give them any credit for being good. If the Dodgers had traded for Darvish, he would be telling you how Darvish is one of the best pitchers in baseball and how he will win the Cy Young in 2021.
Lol. They were all mediocre or worst offenses. Congrats for breaking them down a different way. None of those teams would be considered the upper echelon of any league
I wanted nothing to do with Darvish. His reclamation is the biggest facade I’ve seen in years
Enjoy the rollercoaster
Joedirte4life –
Nolan Ryan’s breaking ball was a little better than so-so. I don’t know how old you are, but I watched the guy pitch for 15+ years and the guy had a nasty hook
Marty McRae –
Nice burn!
He was very good w the dodgers… unless you just meant he was “B” level w dodgers too, and not a slam dunk “A”
He would have been an A if it werent for those darn trash cans in Houston
As a dodger fan who watched about every game in 17… all I remember is the playoffs. Not fair but it’s true. Then he went to the Cubs and was mediocre 3 of the next 4 years
But you’re telling me that 1 year is true Yu? Lol ok
Well he was very good w LA and then dominant in the playoffs in 17 until the sign stealing killed him in the WS… then 2018 was his only bad year, and it was 8 starts due to injury… slow start in 2019 coming off surgery then been dominant ever since
I gave the Cubs an A. I gave the Padres a C.
I based it on short AND long-term potential, and Darvish’s career performance. Last year was an outlier for a lot of players, including Darvish. If he keeps it up, great. And he fills a an immediate need. Davies has always been a steady and reliable pitcher, which the Cubs need.
Prospects are always unknowns, but the Cubs got FOUR guys with big league potential.
Well, almost. That guy who spent six weeks in the bathroom got a 91. But look, there’s more going on here than test scores and grades. You all worked hard and improved.
I’m sober now.
That’s good for today.
We live!
A for Cubs. They cut salary. Replaced Yu in rotation. Got 4 upside prospects.
C for padres. They paid well to get him. Could have had Davies and whatever else 20 million could buy and kept prospects. They did nothing special.
LOL
are you okay?
lol sure
He’ll be fine. I took his keys 20 minutes ago.
This is like the worst case scenario for the Pads and best case scenario for the Cubs. Cubs got teenlagers not that highly ranked, and while one or some could become of value, nothing guaranteed. the padres got 3years of Yu darvish at 54 million and Caratini.. While not cheap, Darvish has the potential to blow past his value in a year and a half, and Caratini is a decnt young catcher. Zach Davies is a 10 million rental. B for Padres, D for cubs.
Jed Hoyer burner account spotted!
I was thinking Dogbone got a different account.
YourDreamGM did just start commenting after Hoyer was made the GM. It would make sense for it to be Hoyer’s burner.
I know I am greatly in the minority. Yu has been great but it hasn’t translated into wins. Not like he is a 15 20 game winner. Not that long ago fans thought it was a terrible unmovable contract.
Davies is a adequate replacement. He can always be traded as well for more prospects if this truly is a rebuild. If not maybe a QO if he does well.
I am just grading this trade on its merits. Not factoring in if the Cubs try to contend in 2021 or if they go on to trade off bryant baez rizzo. If they do try to contend then the money they saved here and with non tenders could field a team with Davies Kluber/Archer/Hamels/Felix JBJ/Pederson. Losing Yu doesn’t rule out contending for the central. However if a fair offer for any of the arbitration players emerges, well the farm does need restocked.
It’s not that you’re just in the minority, your take is blatantly biased
Davies isn’t going to be traded for better prospects at the deadline when he’s two months out from FA than he would be worth now.
No they just got second guy in Cy young voting people kill me smh
Yu was tipping his pitches against the Dodgers and has been one the elite pitchers the last year and a half. Cubs GM praised his friend the Pads GM for acquiring Mike Clevenger Blake Snell and Yu Darvish and only giving up one too 20 prospect. Jed, you gave your buddy Darvish for a pitcher who can’t go six innings and four minor leaguers including three who haven’t played a game of organizined baseball. Yes it’s true the Cubs fell in love with their players and should have broke it up a couple years ago, contrary to what the Cubs claim this is nothing but a salary dump and a horrible trade for the organization and his fans. The Jed Hoyer era as GM is off to a lowly whimper
C to the Cubs, B to the Padres.
Padres clearly improved for 2021. But Darvish is far from a sure thing, and they are basically paying his entire contract. If he repeats 2020 3 times, it’s an absolute steal. But how likely is that? His contract was an albatross 5 months ago. That’s a big gamble
Cubs did a helluva job getting out of the Darvish deal. Yeah the prospects are young but to add 4 wild cards with high pedigree+decent stats when they did play, plus Davies is not inconsequential, they did pretty well. They made a salary dump *potentially* become more than that. Key word. ..Davies was the Padres 3 for most of the year… Cubs could have easily been forced to eat half the deal and get very little. But still. They shouldn’t be making this trade.
Once again, keep pretending that 2020 was the only time he was successful. You’re making yourself look unknowledgable and foolish.
Ohhh, speaking of 2019, have you looked at his 2nd half 2019? Who he “dominated”?
9/15 starts were against the central. The rest were a banged up barely 500 Philly team, a below average Padre team and the Giants, in their late season spiral
Have you looked at what you’re bragging about, before bragging? It’s arguable if his 2nd half 2019 or 2020 were an easier schedule
baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=darviyu0…
The 2019 Central isn’t the same as the 2020 Central. They weren’t world beaters, but they also didn’t occupy four of the bottom five offensive teams in the MLB. With the exception of the Reds, they were all middle of the pack.
Darvish has 211 K and 21 BB over his last 158 innings, he’s the best pitcher in MLB.
Marty Marty Marty lay off the weed.
Darvish is good but he isnt the best pitcher in baseball that honor goes to either deGrom or Shane Bisbee. Darvish isnt even the best pitcher on the Padres.
Bieber
Even if he is the best pitcher in MLB (he isn’t), will he be performing at the same level in 3 years?
Darvish doesn’t need to pitch at the same level as the last 158 IP in order to be worth his contract. He’s basically getting paid $19.7MM/year. That’s solid pay for a #2. If he performs between $16-$24MM/yr over the term of the contract, which he’s likely to do, it’ll be all good. No need for him to be a #1 in order for the deal to work out well for the Padres. Now, granted, Snell’s is the sweeter contract of the two, but he arguably costed more. Snell is in there at $13MM/yr, that’s #3 pay for a #1 or 2 pitcher. He’s basically a can’t miss on that contract.
If Cubs pick up Bauer using the savings that would be the only way this turns out to be a great move. Otherwise it’s a C- at best for them.
So C- it is
They aren’t signing Bauer after trading away Darvish and (eventually) Bryant. That’s basically no money saved. If anything that’s a higher payroll when you factor in Davies
A to the Padres, D to the Cubs. I think Darvish showed that he truly is an elite pitcher and I don’t expect to see anything different in San Diego. Hoyer did pretty bad here, but only time will tell. Seems like a lot of people are grading the trade for what it could be, rather than what it is in the here and now. As of now, this is highway robbery for the Padres.
Lmao. You think it’s outlandish to think a trade built around 4 guys 20+under May need some time to assess?
Heck. We don’t even know if Davies pitches for the Cubs in 2021
i mean one of these guys can explode and make the trade worthwhile, but that requires hindsight to know. its safer now to assume none of these guys make the Majors then any of them ends up being a great player.
It’s safer, or just easier?
Sure seems just easier. That way you don’t even need to learn their names!
These guys immediately jumped to the Cubs top 15, and all 20 or under, and 2 are right at their top 10. All were big bonus babies and/or high draft picks. You can just assume they all fail, but then isn’t every trade is a loss for any team that acquired prospects? That’s a stupid way to assess trades, to me
There’s short term and long term value in MLB…
This whole thread really seems to be angering you, seeing as you’re replying to like every single comment. But no, you’re missing my point. I don’t think the quality of the prospects doesn’t hold up as the trade stands right now. Again, we’re not grading this trade for the maybes, we’re grading it in the now, and it’s clear that the Cubs received a lackluster return.
I’m just calling it how I see it. Shocker Padre fans are telling me Preller got a steal. Y’all claim this on every deal
Name how many steals he’s had in his career? Tatis and…. 7 years of losing trades
Enjoy Darvish facing the rest of league for the first time in a year in a half. Spoiler, the league isn’t the central. 100% of 2020 and 2/3 of his “breakout” in 2019 were against the same teams. It’s a joke.
Sorry, who’s the Padres fan lol? If you’re going to reply to me and then fail to see my Arizona Diamondbacks profile picture, then you clearly shouldn’t be debating anybody on whether this trade is good or not. You’re just some dude on MLBTR who’s got it out for the Pads.
@redking22 is probably the same dude that thinks masking up works if someone tells him so lolololol Cubs got a equal level pitcher for a fraction of the cost and 4 top 15 prospects in a loaded padres farm system. Davies can and will be flipped at deadline for additional assets. Sorry that you can’t quantify what real value is.
They need to flip Davies NOW. His trade value is never going to be higher. The Cubs are rebuilding so there is no benefit to having Zach Davies on the team.
Davies (turned into Darvish) plus gold glove Grisham for weak utility infielder Urias and Eric Lauer was a steal. Unless of course you think the world of Lauer who couldn’t crack the top 20 on Padres SP depth chart.
Both teams got an A imo. I’m sure cubs initial offer was darvish and Contreras and some 7/8 mil a year for abrams headliner but once Pads balk at that – cubs still got out standing value for not having to pay any of darvish salary. I had his value at 2 of those guys they got so getting 4 is very impressive.
For Pads they get a starter whom u want starting in the postseason. Snell/paddock/darvish is a really good postseason rotation. No one is expecting darvish to contend for cy young but his skill set will transfer nicely in SD and they’ll have plenty of cupcake games w giants Arizona and Rockies on the schedule. There also wasn’t a good comparison to darvish available on the FA market. Great pick up !
Who’s Paddock?
Way too early to tell, prospects are young
A for the Padres with one issue. We lost a starting pitcher which we cannot afford
oh boohoo the big market team is poor.
In 2022 SD has 4 star SPs with promising Paddack, Gore, Morejon, Baez competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. Davies would no longer be under contract, he walks. So how is losing Davies so awful?
Who cares about 2022? We’re going into the 2021 season. Realistically, nobody has any idea what their team will look like in 2022.
To think that last year the Pads were going into a season with glove-first-and-foremost Austin Hedges and a hit-first prospect that hasn’t been able to show it yet in Mejia.
Cubs should have knocked Darvishs price down and looked for a similar package that Lance Lynn received.
Sometimes quantity can be better than quality, but to not receive an immediate long term mlb ready piece definitely has put the cubs in a weird position of what to do with everyone else.
Had they knocked the price down and received Campusano they could have moved Contreras elsewhere.
“ but to not receive an immediate long term mlb ready piece definitely has put the cubs in a weird position of what to do with everyone else.”
Why are you so specific with your criticism, other than to have something to say? They got Davies to immediately help the pitching staff. Replace the actual big name they traded. They traded A BACKUP CATCHER as well, which is where your criticism is for not replacing him? Weird
Why do they need a single player who is both a long term MLB piece+ an immediate help? Why so specific?
Seems like they blended immediate help(Davies) with long term help (4 20-and-under guys) AND getting the entire deal off the books
“Why are you so specific with your criticism”
Because there is a difference between retooling and rebuilding
Retooling – getting immediately mlb ready help back to contribute in 2021 and beyond.
Rebuilding – getting assets that arent expected to contribute for years to come
Davies replaces Darvish in the rotation, but just creates another player who’s a FA after the season. The 2022 starting pitching market isn’t exactly awe inspiring.
Any more questions?
They’re clearly blowing it up, if you believe any of the rumors. It’s not hard to see Hoyer was given a reset button and a chance to build his own group, ala Theo
I’ve said before and will say again. I don’t think Davies throws a single pitch as a cub
The Darvish trade makes sense if they blow it up. They haven’t blown it up yet.
Aside from Contreras, Baez, Rizzo, Bryant and now Davies haven’t really come up in trade talks or been mentioned.
Which is strange cause if you trade them mid season the acquiring team loses the ability to QO them and thus reduces the return you’d get.
My stance on the Darvish trade will chance when I see the cubs fully commit to a rebuild. Not some half baked scheme to try and squeeze value out of these guys by trading them mid season hoping someone overpays or hold on to them and issue them a QO for draft purposes.
I be to differ is the same dude who said darvish isn’t an ace and over the last 3 years sports an ops+ of 110….now he is saying Cubs didn’t get good value for a cy young caliber pitcher….which is it?
Tatsumaki: Darvish will cost more prospects than Snell
Me: not at 60+ million owed
Tatsumaki: yes he will hes an ace!
Me:
Lance Lynn, same age (34) and similar career stats, only netted a back end top 100 (Dane Dunning #98) at 8 mill.
Reality: Padres didn’t give up top prospects to get Darvish and 95%+ of his salary.
What I said: Darvish won’t cost top prospects at full price.
Reasons:
poor performance in recent years (2018 and 2019)
financial limitations from 2020 season and lack of revenue
teams aren’t interested in trading cheap control of top prospects to take an expensive gamble
What your poor reading comprehension interpreted that as: YoU sAiD dArViSh BaD.
Just cause you keep repeating the same boring posts with multiple accounts doesn’t make it true.
Davies has just one year in the contract then he’s gone. All the prospects are teenyboppers. That leaves the Cubs with zip years 2-4, during which they’ve blended only crickets.
on another note, there’s a rare Cy Young link siting.
I think “Incomplete” is the grade I would give the Cubs. Spectacular pickup for San Diego in the near term, but those 4 prospects have high ceilings.
Really this is probably the best answer. By the time Yu’s deal is up we’ll have a better idea. But even then, these guys may just be making the big leagues. This is long term vs short term, obviously
Cubs did their IFA shopping that Ricketts won’t do this year in one trade. Lol
I agree that any time you trade prospects, there’s a risk involved. Kyle Lewis wasn’t thought to be anything special and he won RoY. Tatis, Jr., was a lottery ticket when the White Sox traded him. At the same time, it’s still fair to grade the return. If the White Sox were able to acquire Acuna for Micker Adolfo, people would think (rightfully) that the Braves had lost their minds. Yes, it’s an extreme case, but it shows that some initial judgment of a prospect package can still be warranted. If one of these guys hits their ceiling, the trade looks better, but I think one would have to hit his ceiling and another would have to become a serviceable starter to make it worth losing Yu, considering the risk they took in doing so.
A for the Padres. They gave up real value in the Snell trade, but have somehow managed to keep their top guys even then and gotten Clevinger and Darvish for a volume of guys they wouldn’t miss. They’ve shortened their window, but opened it up about as wide as it can go.
D for the Cubs. Would have been an F, but they did at least get some salary relief. I know that’s not the point of this trade (yes, sarcasm, if it’s not obvious), but they got it and can now address one of their other holes.
They didn’t keep their top guys. They traded Patiño.
One concern for Darvish is leaving the NL Central and AL Central matchups. 2020 was very kind to Central pitchers. Still, he pitched well against the competition put in-front of him.
Cubs graded harshly more for the lack of desire to truly compete versus the actual return.
That second point is only partially valid. I’m unhappy with both the return and the lack of desire to truly compete. What I’m least happy with, though, is the blatant BS. “This trade isn’t about finances.” Like any of us believe that. The Cubs aren’t just a major-market team, but one of the most popular teams in the country. They have tons of money; Ricketts is just crying poor and somehow expecting us to believe him. Admit the trade was about money. Admit that a rebuild is coming (if one is). If a rebuild isn’t coming, put some of that money to use filling another hole. (OK, that last bit is the frustration about them not wanting to compete.)
Thia trade was 110% about finances. Heck the Cubs have been trying to trim payroll since 2018 and now that covid happened you better believe they are salary dumping
You basically said what I said, except it’s way too soon to judge the return. Harsh factor also measured by Hoyer’s irresponsible comments afterward. Cubs fans should be irate.
Though Yu will not be facing the NL Central to the extent of 2020, depending on the schedule, he’ll get the advantage of SD, LA & SF parks. Pitcher’s dream.
Great parks, but LA’s offense was the top scoring team in baseball last year. SF was pretty good at 8th. All four other teams in the NL Central were in the bottom 5 in baseball. In the AL Central, the White Sox scored the 5th most runs, but next was the Twins at 18th. So he really faced a ton of very bad lineups last year. I think facing better lineups will more than make up for pitching in better parks. I expect him to be very good, but not CYA contender like he was last year.
“ I think facing better lineups will more than make up for pitching in better parks.”
Honestly, 4 of the 5 parks played more hitter friendly than pitcher friendly in 2020, at least by the eye test
And this doenst account for the teams performing better, as you mentioned
Think of the early al playoffs. That was LAD and SD when it’s hot. Az+COL have always been hitters parks
I’m not saying Darvish will suck 100% or anything. I just don’t expect him to be a 2.00 era pitcher for SD, maybe I’m wrong
You realize you have 1 point and posted it 25 times so far
So you like 2020 stats when they support your arguments but reject them as too small a sample size when they don’t. Oh, ok.
Speaking for myself, I don’t think ANY 2020 stats can be taken too seriously.
Pitcher’s dream…except for Coor’s Field?
Did you see the AL playoffs? That was 2 of the 3 “pitchers dreams” you claim
Typical Cubs trade. What a wasted contract, and a terribly one-sided trade.
Jed’s first deal is trading a Lamborghini for a handful of lotto scratchies. Cubs: F
AJ gets a potential Cy Young winner, a cost controlled switch hitting catcher, and a night with Jed’s wife for a few bonus babies without track records. Pads: A
I think one of the main reasons people hate the return for the Cubs here is how far all of these prospects are away from the bigs. None of these guys has ever even played in low A ball so I highly doubt any of them crack the big leagues before 2024.
There’s sort of a time value argument to be made here. The Cubs should be presently competing in the NL central, but they traded a top of the rotation arm for a mid-rotation rental who is gone after 2021 and then prospects who might help in like 4 or 5 years. Even though these prospects are theoretically good, isn’t there a ton of lost value in that they need to wait all those years before seeing MLB level return on this?
Aside from clearing salary there’s no benefit to the 2022 or 2023 Cubs in this deal, so it’s easy to say the return is bad. It looks like they’re punting on their near future and nobody likes that.
Bet that’s why Theo bailed! He didn’t want to go through a rebuild
Dervish only had a couple good seasons in Chicago. For what he’s making, I would have went after Bauer. Or someone more reliable. But I hope it works out for San Diego. I’m sick of seeing the Dodgers cruise through every year. They need some competition!
I gave the cubs an A because Hoyer is obviously sleeping with his cousin. If you are diddling family than you have mental issues, so he gets a pass
There’s been comments about how difficult it will be for Darvish to pitch in the vaunted west division. Last year pitching against the National league an American league central division teams their combined won loss records were 263 and 272 now if he was pitching in the West division last year taking the Padres out of the equation the combined records for the American and National league teams he would’ve faced was 263 and 277. I don’t think he’ll have a problem
Let’s see Arenado, Mookie Betts, Story, basically all the Dodgers and having to pitch in arizona and Colorado.
But wins and losses are meaningless its the offenses hes gonna face and in the central he faced the 30th, 28th, 27th and 26th rated offenses in the NL West he will be facing the 1st, 8th, 15th and 18th top run producing offenses. The NL West is the best division in baseball as opposed to the worst division in baseball.
Darvish is only effective when a team is NOT actually competing for a championship. He does not respond well to pressure and does not respond well to change. His L.A. Dodger failures in pressure are well known. He thrived in Texas on a team that was not in contention. He joined the Cubs to be a top of the rotation ace that would be the final piece to again gaining World Series glory. He failed miserably until it became clear that the Cubs were no longer a contender, but merely a team getting wins in a weak division. The pressure went away and Darvish once again thrived while mowing down the Pirates and weak-hitting Reds.
He failed with the Dodgers because the Astros had trash cans. He failed in his first year with the Cubs because he got injured. Aside from those years he’s been a pretty good pitcher throughout his career.
Ehhh kinda. Game 7 was in LA where the Astros were not able to cheat
They cheated in order to make it to a game 7
Darvish was runner up to the Cy Young award as it’s been pointed out he pitched entirely in the very weak Central. I doubt he pitches as well against mostly the West. He’s still a very good pitcher and will definitely help the Pads, if he stay healthy and if he is handle correctly. I would point out the Bauer, the cy Young winner also pitched against only Central teams and people are talking about paying him $200+ M. I’m not sure he’s worth that much.
Hes not lol. Hes also been a head case and I would defiantly be buyer beware with Bauer. Every once in a while you see tremendous athletes put it together during a contract year but once they get paid they just phone it in. And while he has great stuff there is always some sort of distraction with him especially with his social media and dont get me wrong he is entertaining and funny but it seems he is auditioning for his next career at ESPN more than focusing on being the best pitcher in baseball. I could be wrong and he continues to get better and be a HOF pitcher but it concerns me to see if he will still have the fire after he gets paid.
Caratini is a very underrated catcher. He might be the every day starter. Or at the very least 3 times a week. He instantly became their best catcher. Campsuano hasn’t had enough playing time. He’ll end up being the backup. And Caratini can play 1B as well. He can give Hosmer a day off.
All the people who voted “A” for the Cubs on this trade work for their front office and were forced to vote A otherwise they’d be fired
Let’s be honest. We’ve seen this movie before. Hard push to bring in premier players. Do we think this is a long term play? I don’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if they aren’t tearing it down next winter whether they win a World Series or not.
A 34 year old coming off of the best 2 months of his career. What could possibly go wrong?
If salary dump was strictly why they made this trade (which they said isn’t), then I’d give the Cubs a good rating. Otherwise, you feel like the didn’t quite get want you want as a Cubs fan. My opinion though. Definitely a decent haul
I don’t think this works out for the Padres. A for the Cubs. I’ve never been a fan of Yu’s. Injured often and not there in the clutch.
While i didn’t love this trade im actually more disappointed they just let schwarber walk..is he the player it looked like he would be when he came in the league no not even close…but a huge left handed power bat like him would of fetched something at the trade deadline even if they were more super young players you take a flier on better then getting nothing at all
They didn’t want to pay him after he hit .188.
That logic doesn’t make sense when they are paying Baez and Bryant and both hit significantly worse than Schwarber and they are both making significantly more than Schwarber would bring in next season.
I feel/felt they non-tendered Schwarber because they need a roster space and a little capital to go after a better line up fit. I’m patiently waiting for Hoyer to either prove me right or prove me wrong.
As much as that sounds good im guessing the latter…he alright said they wouldn’t be players…and the money they save won’t be reinvested in any big sorta way.if anything they know he loves playing for them probably hope he will resign for less…time will tell
I understand what Hoyer said, which could be taken several different ways. Clearly, it means the Cubs will not be in on DJ, Springer or Bauer (with the exception of Springer, none of those guys will be worth the price tag regardless).
But, does that mean the Cubs will not be in on the second tier guys like Tanaka and Odorizzi? Or a step below like Walker? Or even a step further down like Archer?
Non-tendering Schwarber is why I’m not buying into the “salary dump” narrative.
If non-competing was on the Cubs mind then they would have held onto Schwarber at 7-8 million and then flipped him at the deadline. Schwarber is a guy most teams look for in rounding out their roster when it comes to the post season even if he is just an off the bench bat capable of getting on base or hitting the big home run. Schwarber was just not a good fit in our line up with so many similar hitters and a pretty full stable of position players as it stood. Add the fact that none of our outfielders could hit their body weight against lefties, Schwarber had to go so we could be more flexible.
It’s really hard to gauge the Cubs off season thus far because they non-tendered Schwarber but then picked up Bryant. They traded Darvish, they’ve made a bunch of minor league depth signings… it’s all been kind of head scratching. This isn’t a roster that needed a bunch of moves to get better, nor is a roster that needs a high priced free agent.
It will be interested to see the follow up moves this off season.
They probably shopped Schwarber before non-tendering him.
Terrible trade! Only a salary dump.
Yeah i get that…but they invested a first round pick and a ton of time in him..half season would of cost about 3.5 mill..why not try to get something for him..they came this far whats a lil more cost at this point
Wby did they want Davies in the trade? Don’t say the Padres included him to offset salary. Only guys with underwater contracts can be salary offsets and Davies does not have an underwater contract. And don’t say they acquired him to flip at the deadline. He’s not going to have more value at the deadline when he has ~40% club control remaining as he has right now and can’t be QO’d (I don’t think he gets a QO anyway, but an acquiring team losing their right to QO him certainly can’t help his trade value).
It’s amazing how some really basic facts are being missed here.
1. The Padres don’t need him to be an ace, but to deny his potential is lunacy. SD has a great pitchers park and solid bullpen, and Darvish still throws hard and has the command he had with Texas. Dominating weaker competition doesn’t downplay anything. He did what he was supposed to do and it’s not like he had a choice which teams he would face.
2. SD doesn’t need him to dominate the length of the contract. This is more about a short-term boost before Gore establishes himself. If he does play out the contract dominating, great.
3. It absolutely is a salary dump for Chicago, but given the weakness of the NL Central, they could still feasibly make the postseason with rebounds from players like Baez and Bryant.
4. Chicago may (probably) commit to a rebuild after 2021 and the prospects they acquired could very well prove significant when Chicago returns to contention after the current cast is gone.
All of this can be discussed and debated without name-calling, insults, or childish acronyms fueled by biased motive.
Wishing everyone a happy new year. Let’s keep it clean and productive.
So … Gore is going to be an Ace? When will that happen? (And people wonder why I roll my eyes at a lot of my fellow Padre fans)
The rest of your points were fairly good.
Doesn’t your team already have 3 or 4 ACE’s in Snell, Darvish, Clevinger and Lamet? I don’t see Gore needing to be anything close to an ACE for the next few years at least. I also don’t see where Stevil says he will be or needs to be an ACE.
“…short term boost before Gore establishes himself.” Too many people think Gore – and every Padre prospect – is going to come up to the big leagues and pitch like Cy Young out of the gate. Unrealistic. And he’s not ready for MLB. At best, he might be a late season call up.
Clevinger is out for 2021 with his second TJ. Doesn’t help this year, and beyond that is a question mark.
Lamet ended his season with arm issues and PRP injections. He’s already had one TJ. His health for a full ’21 is a question mark.
You forgot Paddack. The league adjusted to him, and he has yet to adjust to the league. He’s been getting rocked since the second half of 2019. He’s also a question mark.
Snell and Darvish? Of course they’re good. How many SPs is that, and how many do you need? And since it takes about two years in the big leagues for a SP to “establish himself,” I don’t see Gore being productive until 2023 at the very soonest.
Did I say Gore would be an ace? I didn’t even suggest Darvish was still an ace. In fact, I literally said they don’t need him to be an ace.
There are no guarantees in baseball, but it isn’t a stretch to think the top pitching prospect in baseball has front-line potential.
Oh, and I’m not a Padres fan.
Ok. Gotcha.
I can see this being good for both sides. The Cubs did a pretty good job during the rebuild with trades ie rizzo, arrietta, strop, henricks… hopefully what Jed does the rest of the way sets up the Cubs for a quick reset and healthy milb system with further trades, extensions and draft.
Dervish was avg at best and his good season with Cubs is an anomaly. The young catcher is the key to the deal. San Diego overpaid and I think the Cubs will prove to be the winner of this deal in the end.
Lets grade this trade in 5 years ….1year ago cub fans were saying we are stuck with an albatross of a contract see if you can get a bag of baseballs….remember the last time the padres got some guy who had not played rookie ball for a top of the rotation starter …white sox fans loved when the trades was made now the padres love that deal…can this turn into the same type of deal only time will tell
100$ spot on. Two years ago, folks were saying it was the worst signing ever. One year ago, it was simply a bad singing, but at least Darvish was pitching okay. This year, Darvish is an untouchable.
This is a decent+ return for the Cubs. The fans should at least wait until the 2021 rankings come out for the four prospects they received.
Lets look at comments from this 2016 deal from padre fans …sounds like most cub fans today google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/Padres/comments/…
And what was cub fans saying after quintanas first start oh we won that deal hands down
What do they say now
No trade for minor leagues is good unless a arm is in a ready for pro player and 2-3 minor lottery picks that’s like guessing Almora will be a stud cause he got the tools