After breaking down how last season’s five lowest-scoring offenses look now, we’ll do the same here with the five rotations that allowed the most earned runs in 2020…
Tigers (6.37 ERA/5.53 FIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.91 BB/9):
- The Tigers received solid production from Spencer Turnbull and … nobody else last season. Matt Boyd, who was a coveted trade chip before the campaign, imploded; Michael Fulmer had a rough year in his return from Tommy John surgery; and high-end prospects Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize couldn’t keep runs off the board. Turnbull, Boyd and Fulmer are all coming back in 2021, while Skubal, Mize and fellow prospect Matt Manning should factor into the mix. Detroit also has a newcomer in former Marlins starter Jose Urena, whom the Tigers signed to a $3.25MM guarantee late last month. Urena was effective in Miami from 2017-18, but his numbers have gone off the rails since then.
Angels (5.52 ERA/4.78 FIP, 8.68 K/9, 3.52 BB/9):
- Over two months into the offseason, Angels fans are surely awaiting the acquisition of a high-profile starter. The team hasn’t done anything to improve its rotation thus far, though the group isn’t devoid of potential as it is. Dylan Bundy enjoyed a long-awaited breakout in 2020 – his first year as an Angel – Andrew Heaney stayed healthy and performed pretty well, and Griffin Canning had a promising sophomore season. Those three are locks for starting jobs in 2021, but the rest is up in the air (will Shohei Ohtani finally regain his health as a pitcher? Will Jaime Barria stick in the rotation after a bounce-back season?). With that in mind, odds are the Angels will add a starter before next season, whether that means splurging on Trevor Bauer or shopping at lower tiers of the market.
Braves (5.51 ERA/4.98 FIP, 8.01 K/9, 4.04 BB/9):
- The Braves’ status as a bottom-feeding rotation is deceiving because of the injury adversity they faced. They barely got anything from Mike Soroka, a 2019 ace who tore his Achilles early in the season, while Cole Hamels pitched once (on Sept. 16) because of nagging arm issues. Soroka will be back next season to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson as one of the best young trios in the game next season. Hamels is now on the open market and unlikely to return, but the Braves replaced him with veteran standout Charlie Morton in free agency. They also grabbed Drew Smyly on the market. While Smyly has gone through an up-and-down career, in part because of injuries, he was terrific as a Giant in 2020. The Braves are banking on Smyly continuing to roll in their uniform.
Nationals (5.38 ERA/5.17 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):
- As was the case with the division-rival Braves, the Nationals’ rotation couldn’t get through 2020 without key injuries. There wasn’t a more notable victim than Stephen Strasburg, who threw all of five innings after winning 2019 World Series MVP honors and re-signing with the Nats on a seven-year, $245MM contract. The good news is that Strasburg is on track for next season after undergoing surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. If healthy, Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin should return to being an elite trio. There are some issues after those three, however. Joe Ross will come back after opting out last season, but he posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each year from 2017-19. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth were tattooed in similar fashion in 2020. General manager Mike Rizzo has spoken this winter of adding a No. 4/5 type of starter, which seems like a necessity.
Mets (5.37 ERA/4.21 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):
- The Mets were yet another NL East team whose rotation battled health-related misfortune in 2020. Noah Syndergaard didn’t take the mound after undergoing TJ surgery in March, while the team also got zero contributions from Marcus Stroman because of an opt out. Things are looking better for 2021, though, with Syndergaard set to return at some point (perhaps in June) and Stroman coming back after accepting the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer. Stroman, all-world ace Jacob deGrom and David Peterson are in line for starting spots at the opening of next season. The same could potentially be said of Steven Matz, whom the Mets elected against non-tendering, though he was terrible in 2020. Thanks in part to Matz’s struggles last year, it seems likely the Mets will pick up at least one established starter in the coming months. Bauer seems like a possibility when considering new owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, but even someone like Jake Odorizzi or Masahiro Tanaka could go a long way in bolstering New York’s rotation.
Im not at all worried about the Braves rotation, the fact that they are even on this list is surprising but trust me they’re gonna be JUST FINE next year.
Only issue they have is who protects Freddie in the lineup.
It still makes no sense to me why they non tendered Duvall and kept Camargo. They need a power bat behind Freeman or teams will just walk Freddie every time he come to the plate or throw him nothing but balls to try to get himself out.
True but Duvall isn’t that guy he’s one of the streakiest hitters in the game. Now do I think camargo should still be a brave? Absolutely not
Weren’t Braves fan singing the praises of AMCamargo the past two years? What happened? Another Brock Holt?
Protection is not what you think it is
Agreed. Protecting is not a .220 hitter than occasionally hits a bomb. Protection is a solid hitter who consistently drives in runs and is not an easy out, preferably one who hits from the opposite side even with the three batter minimum. Duvall .. is the former, and incredibly streaky.
D’Arnaud or Swanson would be arguably better protection for Freeman than Duvall. Riley would be worse than Duvall.
Really the only issue is LF/3B. The rotation numbers are inflated when you start erlin, tomlin, milone, and newcomb. Braves rotation will be MUCH better this year.
It’s not surprising they had Robbie Erlin and Tommie Milone eating up starts along with Folty, Sean Newcomb, and Touki doing nothing and their 3rd best starting pitcher was Josh Tomlin. Its amazing they made the playoffs let alone be the 2nd seed (granted the Padres had a better record).
Except that exactly a year ago today all the Braves fans on this site were extolling the brilliance of those same guys. Folty, Newcomb, and Touki were all aces in the making. It’s SO fun every year to watch their faces melt as they realize their beloved boys aren’t quite as good as they think they are.
Thank you. (Are you a fan of the band Seam???)
Soroka coming off an injury, Anderson has what equates to a September callup for experience, and Fried is still a bit green–his one full year was good, not great. Interesting that people put so much stock into a 60-game season when analyzing the future. It could be all these guys kill it…or they go the way of what others have mentioned on here. Don’t assume.
Folty and Newcomb have both had success at the major league level. Folty’s success (and drop off) is more well-known, but non-Brave fans probably forget that Newcomb pitched like a borderline All-Star the first half of 2018 and was an effective reliever in 2019. Both problems were always more between the ears and execution than talent. Nothing wrong with a fan base being excited about talented arms. They didn’t work out. Oh well.
That sounds like the Mets’ problem with Matz: between the4 ears and execution. It is supposed to be part of the pitching coach and the analytics department’s jobs to address those two things, understanding what to do (and not do) in various situations) and being able to successfully execute those plans. It just seems to be a matter of matching up the right pitching coach with the right pitcher, and, inevitably, someone on each staff gets left behind.
Folty always had the ability it was a matter of keeping his head in the game. That’s far harder to predict. He’s a mental case plain and simple and that’s always been his downfall.
And when did anyone ever think Newcomb or Touki were legit? Neither has ever consistently thrown strikes. When was the last time you saw Fried or Soroka walk 5 guys in a game?
Max Fried and Mike Soroka aren’t mental cases. Neither is Anderson judging by his playoff performance.
Also, not sure why others in here seem to think Fried’s first season was the 60-game season. He’s had a good track record before last year. Admittedly tan out of steam in 2019 in his first full season but that’s to be expected. There’s far more to support Fried repeating his 2020 efforts than falling off. Anyone arguing different is just a hater hoping things will go bad. Odds are in Frieds favor though so don’t get your hopes too high.
Same thing Soroka. All this talk of how he won’t come back the same. Meanwhile anyone following the situation knows he’s ahead of schedule and feeling strong. More wishful thinking things will turn sour than any real evidence suggesting he’ll fall off. Of the evidence we have it’s that he’ll be coming back just fine.
The Braves haters have their best shot at Anderson not turning in a good season. This one could admittedly still go either way. Soroka and Fried are wishful thinking though (barring injuries that is) and thinking otherwise is cope.
At some point it’s ultimately up to the individual himself to execute and perform. No excuses.
Personally, I believe Folty got hung out to dry during that fateful inning against the Cardinals and now has the yips. I’ve rewatched that broadcast and you could tell based on Folty’s body language and command that he was done after like three batters. Should’ve never pitched to over half of the batters he faced.
The Braves rotation literally flips over entirely
Even Ian Anderson wasn’t up the entire year. So last year it basically consisted on Max Fried alone.
You add in Anderson from day 1, Mike Soroka back, Charlie Morton… and this immediately becomes one of the more formidable rotations in baseball.
Even if Smyly sucks it’s not a big deal because they have other options ready to take a crack at that 5th spot.
So barring injuries, rotation looks awesome.
It doesn’t look awesome. It might look good or better, but nothing proven yet. Mets got a lot a crap for how their rotation turned out this decade but the Braves would be absolutely blessed if they followed the same course. It’s stunning that folty and Newcomb may not be part of the answer. They gave up the best defensive SS of this generation to get Newcomb!!!!
Braves fans always super confident. A lot of avoidance of sophomore slumps contained in that confidence though. I like Fried a fair bit, but I think Anderson falls back to Earth in 2021 in a big way now that the league has film. Achilles rehabs are tricky, even for pitchers I’d imagine. We’ll see if Soroka loses his release point.
Wainwright seemed fined. I’d worry more about arm injuries than this
I don’t know about how a pitcher would recover from an achilles, but I know in other sports(NBA and NFL) an achilles injury is almost impossible to fully recover from. I wish Soroka the best, but there is a good chance that he won’t ever look like he did in 2019.
Yeah Soroka isn’t coming back the same. Plus Braves fan also think fried is a below 3 era pitcher. (He isn’t.) I also expect them to be disappointed in Anderson. (I’m not saying he’ll be bad). Having said all that the team is good. They should be in the race to the end and have a good chance of winning division. They are a top 5 team.
It’s funny how Metsfan22 likes to talk about how Soroka’s 2019 was a fluke but somehow regards Noah Syndergaard as an ace. Soroka is the starter I least worry about in the rotation? Also most braves fans arnt overly confident. Most new that most of the pitching prospects wouldn’t turn out (most in baseball don’t.) at least the realistic braves fans. Anyways have fun getting beat by the young and upcoming Marlins. They are far superior than the Mets.
I wish Sorotka all the best in his recovery as I loved his skills and long-term potential pre-injury. The Braves could be lucky and Sorotka could come back as strong as Zach Britton did after his 2017 injury and this could just be a blip on the radar of a lengthy career. On the other hand, after his Achilles injury Phillies slugger Ryan Howard was never the same again.
Soroka is what 22 Howard was 30 something and if I remember correctly it was his left Achilles so his plant foot shouldn’t effect his drive of the mound to much
The Braves will finish in first place. The Mutts, with their big new backup catcher star McCann, will be fighting the lowly Marlins for last place.
@dan55 have you even researched what an Achilles recovery looks like for a pitcher? It’s actually very favorable in recent year wainwright Zach Britton and Jason grilli all tore there Achilles and recovered to pitch as well as they did before.
And there has to be something mentioned when you compare a hitter who drives off said torn Achilles and a pitcher who would be pushing off said Achilles. Everything everyone who’s reported on it says Soroka tore the good one to tear as it’s less of a concern long term.
@bravesiowafan – read my above comment. I stated that I’m not sure how many pitchers have dealt with achilles injuries in the past, but that I know it is very hard to recover from an achilles tear in other sports. I don’t remember any pitchers aside from Soroka getting the injury, so it’s possible that I just haven’t been paying attention to that injury in MLB. If other guys have recovered well then he should be fine, but I am unaware of how those recoveries have gone.
Fans think Syndergaard is an ace because he is. He has a career 3.31 era and averages 9.7ks per 9 innings. He’s 47-30 w/L in over 700 innings. He pitched 7 shutout innings (just 2 hits) in the 2016 wildcard came vs the Giants.
Siroka is very good and Fried is solid. I’m personally praying the rest of the Braves’ prospects will be bust.
Freeman has one year left on his contract. He will look hanging out with that overpaid catcher in Flushing a year from now.
Nice try, Freddie Freeman already said he’s only going to play for the braves.
@andremets When someone (you) points to career totals rather than the last three or four seasons—which are the only years any credible projection system looks at—it’s obvious they’re engaging in cherrypicking to try to make an untenable point.
Syndergaard has been in steady decline. He doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball in the yard the way he used to. He has missed two of the last four seasons and pitched just 150 innings in a third. An “ace” throws 180+ innings per season. An ace is reliably very, very good.
That’s exactly what Syndergaard isn’t. He couldn’t even pitch to a league average ERA+ in 2019 before missing the entirety of 2020. He’s had one 5 WAR season in his career. He’s had one season over 3 WAR since 2016. He has averaged 6 wins per season since the end of 2016.
“Ace”? Please.
How’d they miss the Orioles rotation?
We will trust you, with your expertise. Thanks for the superb breakdown
Shocked the giants aren’t on here.
Honestly, as much as it kills me to say that about my team, I have to agree. Their rotation was somewhat of a roller coaster
The rotation was dominant last year, the bullpen blew a lot of games. Smyly, gausman, Anderson all performed well and guys like Webb and randos had some nice and some not so nice performances. The bullpen on the other hand was either lights out or a disaster
I’m shocked the Rockies aren’t on top.
Baseball 1600:
The ERA for the Giants SPs was 4.46.
4.46 is team total and is .2 below average
3 in the NL East. All 3 due to injury. Braves were still unbelievably good despite the rotation. Between health and morton, that rotation should be scary in 2021.
Braves won 35 games last year (one game better than the Cubs) based on three hitters, one of whom is now gone, a couple rookie starters, and a miraculous bullpen not likely to repeat itself. Depending on what the Mets do with their billions, I’ll slot Atlanta in at a soft #2 in that division, possibly #3 if the Nats stay healthy.
Good joke. Mutts having been what big moves? At the start, it was springer, bauer, realmuto. Then springer and bauer, and now just springer. Remember when mets were supposed better the braves on paper last year, cause look how they finished.
I wouldn’t say that. I think Mets will win division but I could even tell that the Braves could easily win. They are stacked.
oh it can definitely happen, we gotta watch things play out. But to act as though the braves aren’t the main frontrunner and could lose to the nats(with what offense outside turner and soto) just seems nonsensical
The Mutts will not win the division with that weak roster. They will likely finish last. That’s what they do! A small market team in the middle of New York. A third rate franchise in a garbage city.
Braves faced the NL East and AL East; much better competition than the Cubs. Mets still are desperate for pitching. They’re not in the Braves class yet.
not sure desperate is the word I would use, but they definitely could use another starter or 2
Not yet. You’re right. I do expect them to be at the end of the offseason. Also just bc I pick the Mets doesn’t mean I don’t think the Braves could win. I’m probably 51/49 in my pick.
Needing 2 starters is pretty desperate IMO. But they have a ton of money and trade chips. So it could be worse.
The Braves have an elite bullpen and offense. I still think they need another good starting pitcher, but their rotation should be decent next year. They are pretty clearly the favorites to win the NL East.
I think it’s funny that Mets fans are going around claiming that they are the favorites when they finished tied for last place last year.
Cohen money got mets fans acting a little different these days. I mean they thought they were going to grab the main 3 FA. Then it dwindled to 2, and now they don’t want bauer. Mutts are going to need to do a lot before talking about winning the division.
It’s also funny the the Padres think they are elite after a 60 game season.
MetsFan22 – we are not the same.
The Padres are coming off of a season where they finished with the second best record in the National League and had the second best run differential in all of MLB. Plus, we just added two aces to our starting rotation. The Mets are coming off a year where they finished tied for last in their division. And its not like the Mets just had a bad 2020 – they sucked in past years too. Also, the Mets have only managed to sign Mccann and May, two solid players but not the type of game changers that would allow them to seriously compete for a championship.
Have fun losing to the Marlins again this year.
In 2019 they won 86 games in the toughest division with their closer blowing games left and right. Please atelast know what your talking about. I’m in room laughing about how you think a 2020 60 game season makes you this elite team lol.
I’m in a room laughing about how you think a 2019 162 game season makes you this elite team lol.
When your optimism is based on 2 seasons ago.
The Mets had Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard in 2019. The 2021 Mets will not have Wheeler and Syndergaard will miss a big portion of the season recovering from tommy john. The Mets do have a nice offense, but defense is a struggle and they do not have a great bullpen. Unless they manage to sign both Bauer and Springer, I don’t see the Mets as a good team.
The 2020 season counts, whether you like it or not. And the Padres were very good in 2020. We will be the number two team in baseball next year, behind the Dodgers. And I think we have a very good chance to beat the Dodgers come playoff time. The Mets will miss the playoffs.
MetsFan22:
Wow. The Padres just put themselves a lot closer to the best team in baseball. They’re in the conversation to possibly be the best team in MLB. They have a chance, depending on injuries, regression, etc, to win the division from the Dodgers, and you’re throwing them shade? The Padres are having the offseason that Mets’ fans were hoping for, and so far, aren’t having. The Mets are way behind the Padres in being competitive for a title. And I’m no fan of the Padres.
Padres are far better than the Mets. They may be the second best team in the NL. Have fun talking smack about the Marlins and Padres only to have them out preform your team once again. They have a far brighter future for sure.
If you mean the Mets, they’re crippled by having Alderson as de facto GM. For years Alderson has misunderstood how to build a pitching staff for a 162 game season. He also persuaded Cohen 2021 and 2022 are not the Mets window, when that’s exactly the Mets window.
It’s pathetic.
The Braves won 35 games with a trash starting rotation if they get a mediocre rotation they may win 100 games.
Exactly JoeDirte4life… anything more than 1 starter for the Braves is a bonus LOL.
Funny we have fans of other clubs doubting the Braves despite the fact they have won the NL East 3 years in a row with more question marks in all 3 of those years . Each year fewer question marks until this year when they clearly have the strongest line up, starting staff, and bullpen they have ever had. I’m counting a clean up hitter when I say this because I’m certain the Braves will acquire someone before spring.
What separates the Braves I believe is starting depth. They have their 5 they are depending on then Wright and Wilson. They even have several rookie candidates who could possibly step in should disaster strike. They’ve never had depth like this.
i wouldnt say scary. the injuries are a theme rather then an outlier.
Wondering where the era figures for this list came from?
I’m surprised NOT to see Boston on this list. Not sure if it is an error they’re not?
So many guys were claims/traded for, made a brief stint, and got tossed I wasn’t sure if the source used either included figures from other ball club appearances or if it left out a bunch of the scrubs who failed.
But with a team era of 5.85 I certainly expected to see them here…
GASoxFan:
The article clearly states the numbers are the ERA for the rotations, the SPs on the staff, not the total team ERA, which includes the relievers, like that 5.58 RSox number.
Perez, Eovaldi, Houck, and Pivetta combined for 26 starts of the 60 (so obviously just under half) of the games:
Perez – GS 12, IN 62.0, ER 31, ERA 4.50
Eovaldi – GS 9, IN 48 1/3, ER 20, ERA 3.72
Houck – GS 3, IN 17, ER 1, ERA 0.53
Pivetta – GS 2, IN 10, ER 2, ERA 1.80
These 4 combined
GS 26, IN 137 1/3, ER 54, ERA 3.53 !!!
Yes, these four combined for an ERA of 3.53.
The other 34 games were started by a variety of pitchers which were horrible, but not bad enough to be the worst five set of starters.
THE BIGGER PROBLEM WAS THE BULLPEN which made the team ERA according to Baseball-Reference 5.58.
Connor Byrne wrote “the five rotations that allowed the MOST EARNED RUNS in 2020…”
Allowing the most earned runs is not the same as having the highest earned run average!
If an opener pitches one inning and leaves the game giving up one, then his ERA is 9.00 for the inning he pitched. If the Detroit starter pitches 6 innings and gives up 4 earned runs his ERA is 6.00. He gave up more RUNS, but has a lower ERA. So, as quoted, was Connor’s methodology based on “most earned runs” as in total number of runs (Red Sox would fare much better using openers as their starters were not in the game long enough to give up as many runs as starters who pitched longer), or did Connor use ERA.
If Connor used ERA as I assume he did based on his five teams and the order he put them then the Red Sox indeed had a lower ERA helped greatly by Houck, Pivetta, and Eovaldi. Also considering, most of the Red Sox worst pitching was done by relievers!
Shocked no Red Sox on here… maybe cause we didn’t have a rotation
I thought the same thing. I think Matt Hall broke the math so their era doesn’t even compute.
probably not enough qualifying SP.
Rex Sox were probably there until they brought up Houck, traded for Pivetta and Eovaldi got healthy.
Those three were ridiculously good in September.
Nick Pivetta “ridiculously good”????
i mean did you see the alternatives they had prior to him coming over?
Look at his numbers from his two starts with the team. He really outperformed expectations, albeit in only 10 innings of work
Ridiculously good????
Andy – Pivetta – GS 2, IN 10, ER 2, ERA 1.80, strikeouts 13, both Red Sox wins.
Just having some fun. I looked at his lines in those 2 starts. One of those games was against the Orioles so…
It was just funny to see the term “ridiculously good” associated with Nick Pivetta. Mediocre his entire career
Martin Perez’s worst two starts of 2020 were against Baltimore:
W/L. IN. H. ER. BB. SO. ERA
0-2. 9. 15. 11. 3. 4. 11.00
Without those two starts IMO the Red Sox would have resigned Perez as his numbers would have been:
W/L. IN. H. ER. BB. SO. ERA
3-3. 53. 40. 21. 25. 42. 3.57
I’m all for the angels shipping marsh and/or adel to get pitching. Maybe I’m just jaded from the Brandon wood and Dallas McPherson experiences.
I’m with you on Marsh. It seems probable the Angels were in on Darvish and Snell and didn’t line up. Not a lot left on the trade market.
Sonny Gray can be had for the right price. I really don’t believe that Cinci is willing to trade Castillo unless the offer is stunning. It’s such a shame that the Reds are dismantling their team just one year after ‘going for it’. Their Top 3 of Bauer, Castillo & Gray was as good as any team in the league. Now they’ll be lucky to have just one of them on opening day.
I don’t think cincy makes a move unless they make all 3 w suarez grey and Castillo. They can still compete in central w current team so if they blow it up – they need to blow it all the way up
Castillo to dodgers for Lux headliner
Suarez to nationals for keiboom headliner
Grey to angels for marsh headliner
Carrasco, Marquez, Musgrove… probably a few more names out there…
Shocked the Pirates aren’t on here because, well, they’re the Pirates, they don’t do anything well anymore.
Whitman, Price and Haddad!
Running Man reference! The internet is yours. You win.
These teams could have used Buzzsaw, Fireball and Dynamo instead.
Don’t forget Captain Freedom!
“Last year’s winners! You remember them!”
Shouldn’t all the running man References be on a story about basestealers???
Uh I’m sorry–The Braves rotation should not be in the same article as the Tigers. One of these teams played in a league championship series last year, and the other is the Tigers.
except that Max Fried was literally the only pitcher we had the entire season until Ian Anderson finally came up….not surprised, made the post season in spite of the rotation which speaks volumes in AA moves prior unfortunately
Stats are stats. The Braves were insanely lucky last year.
@seamaholic
Luck doesn’t win the majority of baseball games.
This list isn’t about the best or worst teams, it’s about the best or worst rotations. The Braves making it to the championship series is not an argument for why they shouldn’t be on this list.
The Tigers are that team that was in the playoffs during Atlanta’s rebuilding years. Now its their turn to rebuild. Its all cyclical. Tigers had two of their top starters, Zimmerman and Nova, out with injuries. (While not world beaters, they were omitted in the article above) They would have provided some amount of buffer to the youngsters.
The multiple openers used by Boston last year really skewed their starting ERA, as I would argue they had the worst starting staff of any team last season. 0 IP from Sale, E-Rod and Colin McHugh led to a collection of re-treads and has beens gracing the Boston mound. Mike Kickham and Matt Hall started multiple games, while Boston kept their promising youngsters down at the alternate site until they had cemented a Top 6 pick in the draft. The strong finishes by Houck and Pivetta probably dropped them out of this Top 5 list, but I still vote Boston’s starting staff as the worst in baseball last year by a wide margin. Only one pitcher who started 5 games or more (Eovaldi) is returning this year.
Hall – G 4, GS 1
Kickham – G 6, GS 2
Most of Hall and Kickham’s worst games were in relief!
“ Only one pitcher who started 5 games or more (Eovaldi) is returning this yea”
Mazza GS 6
Weber GS 5
Are both returning as well as Eovaldi GS 9
Not surprised the Mets are here. Braves and Mets both suffered massive injuries to the rotation.
Nats too.
Marlins > Mets
Mets lost thor to tjs and stroman whimped out for free agency, so there was only one “massive” injury
Yes. I counted “covid” as injuries (Even if didn’t actually get it). But you are right.
Still hate when that happened, but I definitely think the mets rotation should be better this year at least.
Stroman situation was effectively an injury for the effect it had on the team
Using any of the Angels numbers that include Teheran and Ohtani’s two starts are misleading. I agree what Fangraphs said about the Angels rotation.
“The Angels rotation is not in particularly bad shape, though it could use some spice at the top and some depth at the bottom.”
…
ZiPS likes both Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning to be average or even slightly better-than-average in 2021, and both are young enough to remain interesting even without world-beating stuff.
No real disagreement here. I did write “the group isn’t devoid of potential as it is.”
It just goes to show you how bad the 5th & 6th starters were for Anaheim last season. Between Bundy, Canning, Heaney & Barria, they pitched in 41 of the Angels’ 60 games (39 starts) at a combined ERA of under 4.00. The pitchers who started the remaining 21 games were horrific, running their team’s starting ERA to over 5.50 which means their ERA was around the 8.00 mark in those 21 games. Bundy, Canning & Heaney are locks for the rotation next year. Barria & Sandoval should be in the mix too. If they can get 20 starts out of Ohtani, then they really only need to add one really good starter (Bauer, Sugano, etc.) and possibly one innings eater as well to be competitive next year. It sure feels like both Houston & Oakland will be taking a step back in 2021. Seattle has added some nice, young talent but their rebuild is still ongoing and the Rangers are just starting their rebuild now. A couple of smart pitching acquisitions by Anaheim puts them right in the mix for the AL West title next year.
20 starts out of Ohtani is a pipe dream. Dudes elbow is held together by old spaghetti noodles.
There was no group worse than the Red Sox. I wouldn’t even call them a rotation. How are they not in this article?
Because they used too many one inning openers. That really skewed their ‘starting’ ERA.
Not a fan of the opener. They are called “Starting Pitchers” for a reason…
I am legit surprised the Jays arent on there. I guess Ryu carried the numbers a lot.
I think the Braves pitching will be tough to keep up with.
Mets shouldn’t be counting on Peterson for more than a league-average innings-eating 5th starter. Matz started six games in 2020, three were outright disasters, the others were not. People writing him off are making a mistake. He’s no super-star, but could post better-than league average. Someday.
You’re too low on Peterson. How many pitchers could you say 100% out pitch Peterson next year. 1? Fried. Soroka if healthy most definitely will but look what happened to Betances. And I’m not sold on Anderson as much as most. (He will probably pitch better than Peterson buts it’s not a given..)
I mean there isn’t much showing the Peterson will be better. Both minor league stats and mlb stats have Anderson ahead. There’s a reason why Anderson was one of the more highly ranked prospects compared to Peterson
No I think Anderson should be better. I just feel it will be a lot closer than most think. Peterson is a 6’5 lefty with a nasty slider. He is also hard to pick up. There is no guarantee that any brave pitcher except fried and Soroka will be better than him. And Soroka could come back bad so you never know. I’m also not very high on fried but it would be foolish for me to say Peterson could outperform him after his last year. Even if I do think he’ll never come close to that again.
I think Peterson will be a great pitcher for the NYM. I have to agree with metsfan22 on that one. I also don’t expect Fried to be a 2.24ERA guy In a full season I think he’s closer to a 3.20ERA/3.42FIP guy but that’s still good. I think Soroka is the real deal though.
Same. But for Soroka is the real deal for sure but I want to see how he comes back.
I’m a Met fan, but Peterson is simply not in the same class with Ian Anderson, Fried or Soroka. Peterson is Jon Niese. The only reliable starter for 2021 in Queens is DeGrom. Syndegaard won’t have good control, accuracy or velocity when he returns in July. Stroman is barely above league average whenever Stroman, the wannabe-future Yankee, decides to show up and play. Lugo is best in the pen. Mets still need a #2 and possibly a #3 starter. I’d prefer they avoid Trevor Bauer.
Tijuan wasn’t bad for the Jays which helped. Hope they get him back. 60 games is not enough to judge a team when seasons are a 162 game marathons. That list would not look the same after 162. Ryu would have missed starts.
I think if Ray gets $8M/1, Walker is worth at least that much based on his 2020 performance, and dare I say, his attitude. I’m guessing he’s looking for more years, but can’t get them based on his injury history. I think at his age, history, and last year’s performance, he’d be smart to take 10-12M/1 and hope for a full year without injury. At that rate, he’d be a steal if he could achieve 170 innings and 4.00ish ERA with similar FIP. I hoped that Roark could provide about 4.25-4.50 over 180 innings, so better luck next year. If Walker can hit those achievements, he’d set himself up pretty well for a starter that has yet to reach 30. Probably a similar projection to Dylan Bundy.
The Smyly signing has proven to be a reach with how slow the market is moving.
Nothing has been proven.
Agreed, I think it’s an overpay but sometimes you have to pay a little extra on one year deals. It’s easy to see what Anthopolous is trying to do though. He was hoping for a left handed starter with a high K per 9 ratio to try to face the Dodgers lefty heavy line-up.
IMHO, the Mets should sign two starters. One must be no. 3 or better (Sugano is probably fine) and the other should be a durable innings eater. It’s MLB and rotations never survive 162 games (let alone 60 in 2020). Have competition for Matz as the no. 5 guy, keep a decent no. 6 arm ready and move Lugo back to the pen.
@NMK 2 While that’s a solid approach for the Wilpon Mets, it would be sad to see the Cohen Mets punt another year of deGrom’s prime.
The team has an excellent nucleus but, having missed most of the trade opportunities, it won’t have a postseason rotation unless it signs Bauer and Sugano or signs Sugano and trades for Castillo. (If they’re serious they should sign Bauer and trade for Castillo, but expecting Alderson to act like a top third GM would be completely unreasonable.) Signing just Sugano and someone like Jose Quintana would betray the intention to make a wildcard, but hardly try getting past the NLDS round.
As a Jays fan, I’m guessing that Ryu is the only reason they aren’t on this list. It looks like Detroit blew their chance to get some long-term value out of both the David Price trade and Fulmer’s ROY season. They made unrealistic demands for Boyd at the 2019 trade deadline, Norris is a reasonably effective bullpen lefty with one year of control remaining, and Fulmer has unfortunately been derailed by injury and ineffectiveness in the wake of one really good season. Not how a team with two albatross contracts (Verlander had things figured out until the current UCL injury, Cabrera being the other) and no farm to speak of should handle flashes in the pan. Everyone shat on Philly for trading Ken Giles when they did. He’s had one great season since, but even then he sustained an injury that rendered him un-tradeable when it mattered. I guess my point is that teams need to know when to cash in their chips, and some teams do it better than others, ie. the Rays, aka the perrenial X-factor.
In retrospect, your criticism sounds right. But we do not know, which specific offers for Boyd and Fulmer Detroit refused. So it is a bit strange to claim that they should have been traded.
At the 2018 trade deadline – Boyd’s performance high watermark, as we know now – Detroit already had a much improved prospect system. So it is absolutely defensible that Boyd was not traded for merely more depth.
Fulmer has been a highly touted prospect, who showed a bit more than just his ROY season. With his long team control, I would have kept him – unless there were any Godfather offers – as well. If he comes back with a solid 2021,the gamble will have paid off.
Norris painted himself in a corner with all his injuries. I think the Tigers managed to get decent production from him in his current role. However, I would have preferred to see him traded last summer or now.
Gruß,
BSHH
So in hindsight, you’re able to say what the Tigers should have done. Tell me about your Jays. They have young players at C, 1b, 2b, SS, 3b, LF, RF and currently one SP. Which are going to have solid careers and be kept? Which should be traded because they are not going to pan out? You can’t wait for an injury or bad performance. Tell us now!
All the ridicule handed out for those of us on here who use ERA in conversations involving pitchers and that is the first stat used in this article. ERA matters when evaluating a pitcher, or staff as in this case.
ERA is a good stat to use, but I think only using ERA to evaluate pitchers is a problem. Sometimes pitchers can get lucky with having a really good defense behind them that lowers their ERA, so it is important to use other metrics to see if that is the case.
I agree with that. However, some on here suggest that ERA is obsolete and should not be mentioned at all.
No one says that.
Umm, yes tom, I personally have been told that.
prov356:
I’ve never seen anyone say that ERA is obsolete and useless.. ERA, on it’s own can be extremely misleading. Most of us that discount the sole use of ERA say it needs to be used in context with other stats like FIP, ERA+, SO/BB, SO/9, etc.
If a pitcher has a good defense and uses that to their advantage, why should that be held against him? ERA is an actual result. The rest are tools to help project. When ever they don’t match the result (over a large period), it just shows the inaccuracy of the tool.
Stymee, you said it yourself. ERA is a past result. The other tools are used to predict. Mostly what we are doing here is trying to project next season’s results, thus ERA should be taken with a grain of salt and the other tools receive prominence.
A good defense won’t sway ERA that much over a normal season sample size.
and this article shows effectively 60 starts worth per team, and even if its skewed then a larger ERA shows a greater importance for adding SP to compliment a evidently subpar defense (which plays more of a role then the absurd “luck” card)
I feel compelled to back up prov356. I haven’t heard that EXACT same language, but I have heard language similar to that.
Stats that communicate broad, general information such as ERA or AVG have a lot of fans reacting against them.
SalaryCapMyth:
prov356 said specifically that he had been told that “…ERA is obsolete and should not be mentioned at all.” That is simply hyperbole.
There is definitely a move away from ERA as the ultimate pitcher stat, as it had been seen in the past. But again, that is not anywhere close to the majority of opinions concerning ERA expressed in the MLBTR comments. In fact, I think you would be hard pressed to find a single comment that states that “…ERA is obsolete and should not be mentioned at all.”
ERA is valid, especially for larger samples like team stats, but for individual pitchers, ERA alone is sorely lacking. and can be misleading. It is not obsolete, but does need to be used in context with other stats.
tad – I could specifically name people on here who have said ERA is useless. I choose not to.
Interestingly, I believe the three NL East teams on this list may end up having among the better starting pitching staffs and should be in good shape, at least on paper, heading into 2021, particularly if the Mets and/or Nats add in another starter. The Braves have already upgraded with quality with Morton and added potential upside depth with Smyly to their young, quality starters. For the Mets, any staff starting with DeGrom has a leg up, and while I think Mets fans overrate Peterson and underrate Stroman, both will be valuable contributors, even if I have Peterson as back-end material. Add in another starter and with Syndergaard returning the second half, they should avoid another last place finish. The Nats obviously need Stras to return to form. They value starters, so I suspect they’ll build in some depth before first pitch.
Did the Mets and Nationals rotations really have identical K/9 and BB/9, as the article says? That seems difficult to believe.
Good catch. Well, I’m assuming it’s a mistake because I agree with you. It really does seem monumentally unlikely that they would have not one but BOTH stats match.
The Red Sox were only 5 starters, 7 relievers and a closer from being a top notch pitching staff.
Braves fans are excited about the rotation next season and I am one of them. I do see how this COULD eventually become one of baseballs best outfits.
That being said, like any other fan base, I think we have a lot of expectations that are going to run snack into the wall of reality. Max Fried is my favorite pitcher to watch but I still have to apply a non-bias approach and say “do it again during a full season.” Also, when I look at his peripherals, FIP, xFIP, BABIP AGNST I can confidently say he is good, really good, but an ace? Like I said, do it again.
Ian Anderson is a pitcher I absolutely love. The vertical movement of his breaking stuff is phenomenal. Go to YouTube and search Pitching Ninja Ian Anderson if anyone wants to see some of Anderson’s work. (Pitching Ninja shows a lot a of pitchers with nasty stuff. I encourage all baseball fans to check that channel out.) But I still have to acknowledge that what he did was a very short sample size. Batters probably didn’t have a real chance to adjust to him and that is where things will be very telling. I was very impressed with what he did but just like Fried but even more so..do it again.
Soroka is another that Braves fans just might want to hold their breath on a little. He is coming off a pretty gruesome injury and it might take him a while to get back to normal. He might struggle a bit to find his grove.
I’m going at this rotation with cautious optimism. I saw a lot that I liked about it and it could emerge as one of the best. It might even emerge as the best..but that day isn’t now. This rotation still has to prove it really is what we hope it is.
Nice to not see my Orioles on worse offense or worse pitching list. It shows that they have some talent around. The rebuild is painful but Elias has a plan and it appears to be going according to schedule. Obviously the strong system he helped built will have to produce but things have never looked so up for an almost last place team.
wrong bbref link for Matt Boyd
I hope Urena can turn his career around. What he did to Acuna was disgusting. The last thing this young staff/ all of baseball needs is that type of player.
I know I’m one of the select few, but, I would love for them to extend Boyd and Norris and maybe consider reversing their roles. (Boyd- setup/close Norris- SP
I’m still holding out hope for Kluber, Wainwright, and/or Fiers!
I feel an unexpected Pitcher signing from RIzzo coming on…
Potential Rotation adds for NL East
Let’s just assume Bauer is already on this list since he is on every team’s list whether they have the money or not. This is more about what you add to the top of your rotation
Masahiro Tanaka Prediction by MLBTR- Yankees. 3 years, $39MM
If you are looking to make an impact (or keep pace with the competition) This is about as cost effective a projection as you can find for a pitcher who has been the picture of consistent production. The Catch- he has a stated preference for the Yankmees that may require a higher price for other teams
Jose Quintana- MLBTR projects: Red Sox. Two years, $18MM
Coming off a lost year the value of Jose’s contract is up in the air.Given the large number of mid-tier starters still in the market, we may be looking at a one year deal for the 32 year old veteran. But it is just as likely he will sign a reasonable 3-4 year deal in the single millions/YR range.
Taijuan Walker- MLBTR Projects Nationals. Two years, $16MM
Given the recent injury history this projection looks high to me. Walker’s age [28] works in his favor so he may reach that amount but a longer term three or 4 year deal in the 6.5 to 7MM is also a possibility. Walker may also see interest from teams like the Reds who or trimming payroll but don’t want to lose the fans
Corey Kluber- MLBTR projects: Twins. One year, $12MM
Kluber started his career looking like a potential ace and maybe even a HOFer [maybe]. Injuries and upheaval have derailed his work at various points but he has always shown enough for teams to chase that potential. Now as his career starts to wind down he still holds value but teams are not as covetous of his services the 6MM/yr seems like a good projection for this middle to back of the rotation starter.
Honorable mention: Jake Odorizi, Garret Richardson, Jon Lester
Bull Pen Potential adds NL East
Liam Hendricks- MLBTR Projects Phillies. Three years, $30MM
Top Dog in the bullpen options now after last season’s breakout performance. he checks all the reliever boxes and should get at least the projected annual income but I could also see him squeezing an extra year out of the GM in the deal as well. the price may keep the top spending teams from pursuing him early but the Marlins in particular may feel close enough to go for it
Brad Hand- MLBTR projects Astros. Two years, $14MM
This one is a bit of a sleeper. Hand has been a consistent closer the last few season but often starts as the setup man. This means teams will have different uses [and therefore different values. Hands price may come down as the ST approaches, but that is a gamble if you are in need of bullpen help
Blake Treinen- MLBTR Projects Marlins. Two years, $14MM
I think the price is about right on this one but I see the Nats as a more likely landing spot than the Marlins. The player and team are familiar with each other and Treinen is the kind of pitcher the Nats like.
Kirby Yates- MLBTR Projects- Padres. One year, $5MM
This is probably the best value on this list going by the past five years of work. While Yates is getting up there in years he was also the most consistent pitcher in the Padres’ bullpen the last few years. He still has the stuff to help any teams pen and at 5MM/YR he should be a bargain.
Honorable mentions
Jeremy Jeffress, Alex Colome, Trevor Rosenthal
And just where are the Red Sox on this list?? They sucked big time in 2020
Yes but starter’s ERA was not in the bottom five…
Close, but no Cigar
If we are looking at stats in a Covid skewed season fine. Otherwise I have NO IDEA how the Red Sox aren’t in this list.
Degrom over fried
Morton over stroman
Anderson over peterson
Smyly over matz
Syndergaard/ soroka wash
Freeman/Acuna/Albies/swanson/ darnaud over
Alonso conforto/ mcneil/ rosario/ mccann
We’re number one !!
Angels aren’t even good at being the worst but we sure will be with no off-season acquisition! Yay!!
The Angels should be on the phone with Cincy about BOTH Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo. Give them Adell and others. They have to get some pitching around Trout some day