The White Sox and right-hander Evan Marshall have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2MM, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
Marshall, a client of ISE Baseball, was outstanding for the South Siders in 2020. The 30-year-old righty tossed 22 2/3 innings with a 2.38 ERA and even better 2.04 FIP — thanks largely to a 30-to-7 K/BB ratio and a terrific 54.6 percent ground-ball rate. That marked the second consecutive sub-2.50 ERA season for Marshall, who was cut loose by each of the D-backs, Mariners and Indians in 2017-18 before emerging as a key bullpen piece in Chicago after signing a minor league deal with the Sox.
At present, Marshall projects as one of the top late-inning relievers for the White Sox, although the expectation is that they’ll add at least one late-inning arm between now and Opening Day — particularly given the fact that closer Alex Colome is a free agent. Colome himself seems like a candidate for a reunion, and the Sox have also been linked to Liam Hendriks, among others.
Marshall is the second player in as many days to avoid arbitration with the White Sox. Adam Engel signed a one-year, $1.375MM deal with the Sox yesterday. With Marshall now joining him in signing for the upcoming season, only right-handers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez remain among Chicago’s arbitration class.
Hahn is probably trying to take care of some of these in house matters before a larger acquisition.
Thoughts on an appropriate extention for Giolito?
If I had to take a guess, 6 years $70mm. 3 years arb eligibility and buy out 3 years of FA. That would line up perfectly with the Sox first wave of talent, guarantee financial stability, and put him to hit Free Agency at 30yrs old, lining him up for another big payday.
I think that’s too low. Spotrac estimates him at $3.9M for 2021. Using an annual doubling, that’s $7.8, then $15.6, for a total of $27.3. That leaves about $43M for his three prime years, or roughly $14M/yr. I rather doubt he accepts that.
I’d offer five years at $61M. That’s about $17M for each of his two FA years, and lets him become a FA at 29. Maybe have a club option in there for $19M. If he continues pitching like he has the past two years, it’s a bargain.
You dont give him what his maximum arb earnings is.
4 year $65 million extension with $18 million club option for a 5th and $20 million club option for a 6th year. If either options are declined Giolito gets $5 million buy out. That would buy out his 3 arbitration years and, if both options are exercised, 3 FA years. The Sox get cost control, Giolito gets a pay bump, and he’ll be 32 six years from now so he could still get a bite at the free agent apple. 6 years from now money from Abreu, Grandal, Keuchel, and Anderson will all be off the books.
Let’s go Rick, get it done!
No need to go that high. He’s projected to make a little less than $30M through arbitration over the next three years. Why pay $35M for that 4th year?
It just doesn’t work that way Hyrax. To get him to sign long-term, you have to entice him. And he has to look good for his MLB brothers, as well. So you need to factor in more than just what he would have made in arbitration. If he was a FA right now, even in this climate, I believe he would get close to $25 mil per season. But he’s not a FA – still, I’m going with 6 years, 100M.
It doesn’t work how you say, either. For one, I don’t believe his FA value is quite $25M. He’s as good as Wheeler, but Wheeler got a slightly lower amount in a better economy and I think he was overpaid. Second, the Sox are just getting three more years; they’re already locked into the next three. So it’s not so much of a long-term signing as a short-term extension. There are two levels of discount: risk that the team is taking, and the lower amount from pre-arb. The benefit to the player is being guaranteed a big payday, large enough to live off of for life, even if they’re injured or start to suck. The White Sox have zero reason to pay market value now and absorb all the risk. None.
Fair enough. You could make it 5 guaranteed years. which lowers the AAV to $13 million a year. At 4 years the AAV is 15. Also, you do need to give him an incentive to sign the extension instead of going to free agency as a 29 year old.
$65/5 I would do. It’s not too far north of my original proposal above. If he continues to pitch as he has, it’s well worth it.
That’s way too much money. He’s already 26 and will be 29.5 when he hits FA. His arbitration payment the first time through this winter could be close to $4. Even if he doubles that 2 more times he’ll only be getting $16 million year before free agency. There is no way under the sun that he would get $25 million a year in this climate. He probably deserves it. But he would not get it. Thev second best catcher and the either second or third best pitchers on the market only signed for $10 and $11 million respectively. (McCann and Morton).
In this climate at this age he would get over $30m per year. Aces just aren’t that easy to acquire.
And unlike some of the other aces that have hit the market recently, Gio is also a beloved club house presence with his own strong fan following.
5/75 and club option for 25mil on 6th year (5mil buyout). He comes from money and will have to be enticed more than the average starting pitcher to buy out very valuable FA years.
The ZiPS projection on a Giolito extension with a couple options tacked on was just about exactly $100m
Given his TJ history and the overall market, maybe we could call that 90. But I doubt he signs for much less. He’s always been a guy who feels confident to bet on himself (as he should).
Ok, but that’s valuing WAR at $8M. Players don’t get that. If they did, Trout would be around $70M/yr. It’s also assuming he gets 25% of that this year, which would be $10M. Not a chance.
Agreed. Taking a calculated risk as the club with my figures. If I’m Giolito, looking in 3yrs at getting huge guaranteed FA deal while still in 20s. Need to be offered very generous extension to bypass that opportunity in exchange for being risk averse.
Giolito is an Ace caliber starter. So you have to pay him as such if you want him to extend. With that in mind, $125MM/6yrs is the kind of contract the Sox would need to offer.
If this were a FA signing, absolutely. But it’s not. That offer is a massive overpay, considering he has arb years left.
All of you trying to lowball him is exactly why he won’t sign an extension. He can just make a ton of money in arbitration then head back West and get paid by one of the LA teams. Besides, his life situation is far different from Abreu, Robert or Jimenez. He’s from a wealthy family that has worked under contracts, so he has no incentive to accept some lowball offer below market value. He doesn’t need to buy his parents a home, or take care of extended family. If he blows out his arm, he can live off the millions he has already earned and relax knowing he is due an inheritance. You aren’t going to lowball him. He’s going to insist that he gets paid what he deserves.
It’s his right to reject an extension offer. If he wants to bet on himself, fine. But demanding that the Sox lock themselves into paying full FA value for those next 2-3 years now is dumb. They have no reason to take on that risk without getting some reward for it. It’s just how extensions work.
You’re ignoring market conditions, the the White Sox’s position in said market. Grandal’s contract is a perfect example of what I’m talking about. In order for our White Sox to secure elite and 2nd tier talent, they have to overpay (by rate or term). You can thank Mr. Reinsdorf for making the Sox a 2nd/3rd tier destination for professional ballplayers. It’s stupid because Chicago is a worldclass city, and free agents avoid it like the plague, bit I digress. You need to pay elite young talent, and make them feel valued and respected if you want them to stick around. Whatever their market value is, pay $20MM over, or add an extra year to the offer. Maybe someday when we have an owner who treats this team like professional organization (not a hobby), the perception/reputation will change, but until then, keep your best players happy.
I’m happy Marshall has found major league success
There is no way that Giolito takes an offer averaging around 10M per season – that is just too low for a guy like him. Sure, there is risk for both sides. Giolito has the risk of injury or loss of production affecting his future value and the Sox, of course, would be taking on multiple guaranteed years of salary to a starting pitcher that hasn’t yet had TJ as far as I know. And it seems like every MLB pitcher gets it at some point. That said, I think he’d be looking for something closer to 6 years, 100M.
He won’t get that. His arb seasons being bought out doesn’t mean he should get FA value for them. The Sox have no reason to do that. So if you subtract about $27M from your $100M, that’s $73M, or $24M a year. It’s right around FMV, maybe a little high. The deal should be more favorable to the Sox, considering they have no other reason to lock him in this early.
How does $73M over 6 years equate to $24M a year?
Because he’s projected to make about $27M over three years of arbitration. That leaves 3 add’l years at $24M each.
He did already have TJ. None of us were saying $10 per season. All of us were suggesting $14-17 per season…..
One thing I’ve long appreciated about the White Sox is that they make a concerted effort to avoid arbitration. It makes sense to avoid any ill will and get cost certainty. I get why teams do it during a player’s last year and their respective numbers are off by $3M, but I’ve seen teams go through with it over $100K or less differences. Just split the difference and call it a day.
It could be loaded full of incentives and bonuses to increase the appeal.
I wouldn’t mind that, provided the incentives are based on awards, not just games pitched or innings thrown. If he places 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in CYA voting, $750K, $500K, and $250K, respectively. Don’t care much about GG for a pitcher, but can throw a small amount in if he wins that. Another $500K if he wins WS MVP.
I think winning ALCS or ALDS MVP are also worthy of awards, but I also kind of think those will go to Timmy or Abreu or Nicky anyway. Or Robert or Eloy. Or Moncada. Wow, we have a stacked roster these days.
Feels good to finally have a list of good players longer than three names, doesn’t it? And of those, Robert would be my pick as most likely. Just affects the game in so many ways. But Giolito would be 2nd or 3rd most likely, IMO, assuming he pitches well, just because pitchers who dominate their two games often win unless a hitter is just on fire the whole time.
6 years, $100M is an AAV of “only” $16.6M a year. At his current rate of production, $16M per will be an absolute bargain, especially in 6 years. .
Sure, but they’re getting an even better deal right now over the next three years and taking on practically no risk. Your offer essentially locks the Sox into roughly market value for him for the three years after that, which is a significant risk, while not giving them any benefit, save that they don’t have to make him a similar offer later.
That doesn’t sound so strange. Extension for young players are typically well bellow what the FA wod give them. But from Giolito’s perspective, he may sign that offer if it were given to him today. Giolito will be 29 by the time he hits free agency which is a lot of time for something to go wrong.
He has to weigh that against how much he would make as a pitcher that would be going into his 30’s and decide if the extra money he would make is worth the risk. Guaranteed money is always less than potential money.
$125MM/6yrs for Giolito, with a team option. Works out to $20MM per for the staff Ace. Make it so, Hahn. And get that Liam Hendriks in here if you’re serious about winning championships.
I agree with you on Hendriks. That should have been done already.
Done already? You make it sound like the player has no control as to when the player signs
Paying top dollar for a closer is dumb when you gave needs at other positions, like in the rotation and at DH. They have multiple guys who can potentially close, and there are a number of other less expensive options on the market, including Colome. Give the money to Brantley, then figure out a less expensive solution to the bullpen, which very well could be Bummer or Crochet or even Kopech.
It’s all about pitching depth in the MLB. Bullpen depth is the biggest asset/advantage in baseball. The Sox need a proven everyday closer in front of all that talent in the bullpen to make it more formidable. If they resign Colome, it’s all well and good. But upgrading to Hendriks makes the pen better considering the ROI. Adding Hendriks plus re-signig Colome to a reasonable 2-yr deal puts them heads and shoulders above the rest of the division, and quite possibly the entire AL. If you’re serious about contending for MULTIPLE seasons, bullpen depth plus a solid rotation is absolutely crucial. It also fires up the entire organization from the GM on down, and energizes a downtrodden fanbase. Watch the last game of the 2005 WS to see what I’m talking about.
Go K-State!
His family is not wealthier than him. Any inheritance you think he’s due is not more than he’ll make (arbitration, FA or otherwise). Do you really think he’s making decisions on an inheritance that will pale in comparison to any contract he signs over the next 7 years?
eyeball710 – Yes, @maximumvelocity does think that he will make his decision based on an inheritance that he is guaranteed to receive. LOL
He’s established himself as a TOR pitcher with this team and along with all the other youngsters, they’re growing together and want to win together which they’re more than capable of. Not sure how much that measures out but it certainly has value and would most likely be considered in a deal.
While I understand the sentiment, it’s 2020… hometown discounts are no longer a thing. If you love the player, you gotta pay him above market to stay. Even the Yankees overpay to get the guy(s) they want. The White Sox are setting themselves up for 3-5 years of dominance. If they can win two championships during that timeframe, the return on investment justifies spending a little extra during that timeframe. Then they can blow it up and start over, and the fans will be happy to support them during the next rebuild.
Put the horse back in the barn and let’s see if Giolito can string two seasons together first before investing.
@msqboxer
Isn’t that’s what he did in ’19 and ’20?
I get that ’20 was only 1/3 of a regular season, but he looked really strong in ’20, definitely enough to say he proved that ’19 wasn’t a one-year-wonder.
I’m not even going to attempt to predict a figure for an extension. All I’m going to say is if they plan on extending him, they need to do it this Winter. A work stoppage looks inevitable next Winter, and safely assuming it will be a lengthy one, no chance for an extension then. After that, he may become too expensive for the Sox to extend him (emphasis on the word “may”).
I was hoping they were going to gamble on him last Winter and get a very team-friendly extension done, but so much for that. And I get it, he could’ve been a one-year-wonder, but had the deal been cheap enough, they could’ve afforded to eat the contract had he busted after ’19.
Personally, I think the White Sox should go out and trade for Sonny Gray. I’d give up Madrigal 2B/SS, Stiever SP, Sheets 1B & a lower prospect. That’s similar to what Tampa got for Snell. White Sox could replace Madrigal with FA Kolton Wong (2 years). Also, I’d consider signing Archie Bradley for the righty veteran setup guy (2 years & an option year) and make either Crochet or Bummer the closer (the other lefty setup). Crochet has shown last season he could pitch in the bigs. He’ll spend 2021/22 in the bullpen and return to starting after Keuchel leaves. Kopech will start in AAA in ‘21 and could get called up later in the year if there’s an injury or if Lopez struggles being the long reliever/spot starter. Kopech will take over Lynn’s spot in the rotation in ‘22. And finally, sign Kurt Suzuki for 1/$2.5 million. Sox will probably carry 3 catchers in ‘21 (Collins, Grandal). Grandal will help out Vaughn at DH when Suzuki starts.
Uh, no.
Uh, yes.
Personally, I’d much rather have Madrigal than Wong. And I’d much rather give Collins his overdue chance over Suzuki. If they are going to trade for Gray, I’d rather it be Kopech or even Crochet over Madrigal.
After Vaughn makes it up this year (whenever that is), the Sox will be set offensively except RF. And who knows, maybe they have their answer in Cespedes (it will take at least a year to know). I wouldn’t take from that current starting 7 (8 once Vaughn makes it up)–I’d leave it alone.
For me, get a reliever or two and get ready for ST. Once the season unfolds, if needs present themselves, they have the July deadline to make the adjustments. I can live with Dunning being traded, I can’t with a piece of their core and replace that piece with patchwork.
If Wong were not to work out (which is very possible), the Sox would be kicking themselves for years parting with Madrigal–a great singles hitter with GG caliber defense, and I sure can be kept at a cheap extension (even if not, that still 6 years of control at a very decent price).
*meant to put Collins and Mercedes if they were to go with 3 C’s, and have Collins be the primary backup C. Also Collins can be primary DH before Vaughn makes it up.
But this is all just me playing armchair GM. It’s not like Hahn’s going to ask for my opinion before making any more decisions this Winter.
I think people are forgetting the org here. Giolito is a pitcher, and I think the Sox remember Danks’s extension. Yeah yeah they signed Buehrle and Sale to extensions but they were far more beneficial to the org than the player. If they can do that here Im sure they will. However Gio is not breaking the bank with the White Sox (at least not yet and that would be a first for JR and Co).
As for ‘Ace’ status? Im not so sure about that. The No-hitter aside ( it was special, but before people rest their hat on that, just remember that Phil Humber has a no-hitter as well) there were times where when they needed him to win he got lit up, IIRC particularly vs the Twins. While I get that last year was a weird one so you have to try to parse out the stats the best you can, he does not strike me as ‘Ace’ yet. Even with the post season showing and especially now that his ‘binky’ in McCann is going to the Mets. Show me a 17-20 win season, (and the ability to pitch well with any catcher) and I’ll see an Ace (and yes I get that wins do not mean everything, but they still mean something and should for “Ace’s”). Get him taken care of this year on Arb and then see how he does this season. He is improving but I want to see more from him before the Sox extend him into riches as I do not want to see another Danks.
@nrd1138
The problem with Danks was his injury. It easily could’ve been career-ending (if I remember right, it was a torn shoulder capsule). He was obviously never the same pitcher after that.
As for Giolito, if he’s not an ace yet, he’s close. Personally I would consider him one, but I can see the argument why you (and others) wouldn’t consider him one. I obviously wouldn’t break the bank for him now, but envisioning good things for his future, I would extend him now while I can still get him at a relatively affordable price.
What about Danks