Tigers GM Al Avila wants to remain patient and disciplined this winter when it comes to augmenting their young core through free agency, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Detroit will look to add a catcher, corner outfielder and first baseman, as well as a pitcher or two – but all in due time. Detroit hasn’t posted a winning record since 2016, and they haven’t reached the postseason since a four-year run ended in 2015. Those playoff teams, of course, were led by formidable pitching staffs that included Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, and others, as well as an all-time bat in Miguel Cabrera still in his prime. These Tigers don’t yet have that kind of offensive force, but they’ve begun to graduate some of their highly-touted arms, such as Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. For now, let’s take Avila’s lead and not get too far ahead of ourselves. Elsewhere…
- Justin Turner is seeking a three-year deal, per Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. That might be a tough sell for the 36-year-old. Three years might be the ask for Turner, who is represented by GEM Agency, but it’s just as likely a starting point to give their side some wiggle room in negotiations. That said, Turner was a central piece for the World Series champs, slashing .307/.400/.460 across 175 plate appearances in 2020. That’s good for a 140 wRC+. The immediate concern, rather, relates to his viability at third base that far into the future. His glovework earned marks of -2 OAA in 2020 and -1 DRS, both of which are palatable marks. But if there’s significant regression coming for Turner, the glove is where to look first. Regardless, for those clubs looking to add an impact bat in 2021, there aren’t many better than Turner.
- The Rays have discussed the possibility of a reunion with Chris Archer, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Given the Rays’ tendency to limit starter innings, they need the whole of the staff to be capable of soaking up innings. Archer could certainly help in that regard. Besides, if anyone knows what Archer is capable of, it would be Tampa Bay. For the present, however, the Rays are focused on players who might accept minor league contracts. The payroll likely is what it is, notes Topkin, meaning that if they’re going to add much in the way of salary, we should expect a matching expulsion. They need a catcher, of course, probably a couple, and more generally, GM Erik Neander wants the club to make more contact.
- Clayton McCullough will replace George Lombard as the first base coach for the Dodgers, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). Lombard was named A.J. Hinch’s new bench coach in Detroit. The rest of the Dodgers’ coaching staff from 2020 are returning. McCullough has been with the Dodgers for seven seasons, serving recently as minor league field coordinator. Prior to joining the Dodgers, he managed at a number of different levels in the Blue Jays’ system.
Cap & Crunch
Dodgers wont go 3 yrs , sheez, I hope not at least, unless he’s got some dirt on Fried-
Id be firm on 2/25 and I love Justin Turner in Blue. That wont be the highest offer but its the most they can (reasonably) go considering all the variables
**I could see ATL gettin real sneaky with a 1/15 if things get salty between the 2
Dodger Dog
2/30 was my thought
BovineCrab
I’m glad the Rays are somewhat in on Archer. I had him picked to go back to Tampa Bay. Archer would be the only player I have gotten correct outside of Drew Smyly so far since Robbie Ray, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman don’t count for anybody.
larry48
how about 2 years for 24 with Dodgers club option for 10,000,000
larry48
3/30 would be ok for turner and dodgers
dan55
Interesting that you think Atlanta could be a potential dark horse candidate for Turner. I had them pegged for Kris Bryant, but Turner would definitely fill that need. However, I’m not sure he would accept a one-year deal now that he is 36 years old.
BovineCrab
Neither Turner nor Bryant will go to Atlanta. Austin Riley has basically been given that position for at least the 2021 season. Alex Anthopolous has already told reporters how happy he is with the fact he never traded Riley and kept him a starter. The Braves only need a left fielder and maybe DH. They are definitely not going to sign Turner or trade for Bryant to fill either of those positions. I had Turner going back to the Dodgers. 0% chance the Braves trade good talent to acquire one year of Bryant at $18+ million when they can save over $17 million and keep Riley for the long haul. I Know Riley wasn’t great last year but he fixed his problems from 2019. In 2019 he couldn’t hit the slider or offspeed pitch but he crushed the fastball. In 2020 it was exactly the opposite. Riley crushed the slider. He can clearly do both. He is very young and the Braves are counting on being able to develop him enough to make sure he can do both at the same time. They are definitely counting on him enough to not sign a player in his late 30’s or trade for1 year of an expensive player that is coming off a season equally as bad. Riley has more future production left in his body than Turner and Bryant combined and the Braves realize this.
dan55
Austin Riley might end up becoming a good player someday. However, he is clearly not a good player right now. The Braves are a World Series caliber team, so they need players who can help them win right now. Riley is not that player. Even if you don’t think either Turner or Bryant is the long term answer, they are both a lot better than Riley right now. Also Bryant can play corner outfield so he is somewhat flexible position-wise. The Braves should try to see if they can trade Riley for a pitcher to help solidify their rotation.
braves25
@Dan55
You do realize their rotation has already been solidified! Fried, Morton, Soroka, and Anderson…Smyly just has to be a solid #5
Cap & Crunch
Im with Dan here-
Riley was an automatic out come playoffs…hell, he couldn’t even move up runners on the paths on many key occasions bc of the whiff
I think a 1/15 for Turner would be a tremendous move for them –
Do you know how many times a GM says something in an interview then does the opposite a month later? Grain of salt with AA’s interviews on Riley…what’s he gonna say ‘ I was dreading his playoff abs like the rest of America ?”
dan55
@braves25 – The Atlanta rotation is not as strong as you think.
Fried is a legit ace and Anderson looks really good, but there are question marks after that. Soroka was really good when healthy, but he might not be as good coming off an achilles injury. Plus, he will be limited by innings. Morton has been a really good starter in the past, but 2020 was a down year and he is going to be 37 years old next year and had a down year in 2020, though it is hard to say if he declined or if it was just a small sample size. And even though Smyly played well in 2020, it was only 26 innings, so it is hard to count on him to pitch regularly in 2021. And that’s assuming everyone can stay healthy for an entire season.
If I am the GM in Atlanta, then I would definitely be willing to give up Riley in a package that includes a good starter like Snell or Carrasco(obviously more prospects could be included).
Led Hoyer
The time is now for the Braves. Who cares about Riley’s future value. He is mediocre at best right now. Let him come off bench. Ozuna was a huge part of their offense they need to replace him and then add a legit hitter at third.
giantsphan12
The only way the Dodgers go three years on Turner is the expectation that the DH will for certain be in play in the NL come 2022 and beyond- a safe bet IMO
UnknownPoster
No way turner takes a 1 year deal. Zero chance
outinleftfield
Dodgers are offering 1 year and Turner wants 3?
UnknownPoster
Par to course for Friedman, we don’t know. He doesn’t negotiate in public
It could be they are offering 1 year guaranteed and an easy to attain (or not) vesting option. Could be they are offering 2 guaranteed or even 2+ vesting/team option. The fact he’s coming out saying he wants 3 means no one is there though imo
I doubt LA is at a straight 1 year. JT was basically the captain for 3+ years and put up a 140 wRC last year. He can still rake and I trust LA recognizes that
alwaysgo4two
Archer back to the Rays? Now that’ll be interesting. He comes back, wins 10 games and sticks it to the Pirates again.
OCTraveler
3 years for a 36 year old with a career batting average of .292, a mediocre W.A.R. and average defense is too much to ask. Would prefer the Dodgers look at Seager, Turner or Rios or explore trades.
brodie-bruce
i would go 2 guarantee years and a 3rd with vesting options or club option
GoLandCrabs
Turners career WAR is not high because he was a late bloomer.
ShieldF123
Not sure why 4 WAR per year strikes you as “mediocre”. If the DH comes to the NL that has to factor in as well
mlb1225
Averaged about 5.2 fWAR/600 plate appearnaces during his time in LA. He’s no longer the defender he once was, but he’s not incapable of playing the position. Plus the universal DH seems to be inevitable. Whatever team that signs him will probably use him at DH/1B after 2021.
differentbears
Since joining the Dodgers, Justin Turner has hit .302 with an .886 OPS (139 OPS+ in that time). Who cares about career counting stats on someone who exploded after a swing change?
The only WAR figures that are important are what he’s done with the Dodgers. He still can hit, and maybe his range is reduced but by the eye test, he still can pick it at 3B, so one more year in the field works.
What I’d like to know is what his AAV ask is. Three years puts him into his age-39 season, but what’s important is how much it’ll cost for age-39 Justin Turner. That said, I don’t see him falling off a cliff with the bat like Chase Utley at the end, but being a useful part-time bat and playing 1B/3B if needed, but mostly DHing in 2022 and 2023.
dan55
It really depends on what teams think will happen with the dh. If teams think that the universal dh will be implemented by 2022, then I could see a team signing him to a three year deal. Otherwise, I think his best hope will be for a two year deal with an option.
BobSacamano
I’ll gladly take Turners’ work ethic and passion in DET! I think the dividends alone that type of player can bring to your organization has to do wonders. He brings the fire, and he’s fun to watch! I say 2/25, & incentive based-club option for 2023. It’s hard for me to imagine him outside LA.
BlueSkies_LA
Regression is one of the most abused words in baseball. It is not a synonym for decline. It means a return to average or to a previous state.
On Turner, his effectiveness on defense can’t be judged on the basis of badly flawed defensive metrics. Anyone who watched the postseason this year got to see why knowing what to do and doing it in the microsecond a player has to make those decisions is what separates the good from the great.
He’ll go for two years plus an option. Asking for three is for negotiation.
ThatGuy 2
Regression:
gradual loss of differentiation and function by a body part especially as a physiological change accompanying aging
gradual loss of memories and acquired skills
BlueSkies_LA
Obviously it is being used in the medical not statistical context. Wow, that was both helpful and relevant.
re·gres·sion | rəˈɡreSH(ə)n |
noun
1 a return to a former or less developed state: it is easy to blame unrest on economic regression.
• a return to an earlier stage of life or a supposed previous life, especially through hypnosis or mental illness, or as a means of escaping present anxieties: [as modifier] : regression therapy.
• a lessening of the severity of a disease or its symptoms: he seemed able to produce a regression in this disease.
2 Statistics a measure of the relation between the mean value of one variable (e.g. output) and corresponding values of other variables (e.g. time and cost
ShieldF123
Oh right. So only the definition you like applies. Got it.
giantsphan12
@BlueSkies, your choice to include the phonetic pronunciation portion from the dictionary made me laugh out loud. I needed the laugh!! Thank you.
And, I agree with your using this definition as it pertains to baseball, as the statistical definition is most appropriate.
craigin805
Thank You contracts can be expensive. Dodger fans remember Steve Garvey as a Dodger, not a Padre. There’s a thank you contract coming up for Kershaw next year. If the Dodgers keep both, that’s a lot of payroll for declining players. If there’s only one thank you to be doled out, I pick Kershaw.
differentbears
Clayton Kershaw is still one of the best pitchers in the league. He’s just not peak Clayton Kershaw anymore (few have ever been that good), just merely an ace.
His decline would be top of the rotation for a lot of teams, and he went out and found 1.5 ticks on his fastball and improved on that one “bad” season, when he had a 3.03 ERA.
Chief Two Hands
Yeah Kershaw has been so outstanding during his career, and set the bar so high for himself, that a lot of people mistakenly think he is over the hill simply because he isn’t winning the Cy Young award every season. The guy is still great. It doesn’t help that he was often mismanaged in the playoffs by Mattingly.
Braveslifer
With the DH in 2022, the Braves could be safe signing Turner for two years, three if the AAV isn’t too bad. Keep Riley in LF for 2021 and allow Turner to play 3B. He becomes DH in 2022.
bot
Always amazed at clueless Braves fans. U been paying attention at all ?? If they weren’t in on Donaldson and didn’t sign ozuna long term- then how could you ever come to the conclusion they’ll give Turner a multi year deal !?
mlb1225
Turner might not get 3 years guaranteed, but maybe 2 years plus a 3rd year vesting option or club option.
mlb1225
Tigers have a lot of young arms coming up through the system. Mize, Manning, Skubal all look very promising. So do Faedo and Perez. Depending on how he pitches in 2021, the Tigers will have a choice to make on Fulmer. If he pitches well, he could make a nice trade piece or be a prime extension candidate. If they think they can be competitive by 2022 or 2023, then it might be worth extending him as a rotation anchor.
JrodFunk5
Yet of course Avila is preaching patience. I get it, they aren’t there yet. However I’m increasingly worried the Illitch kids and Avila aren’t committed to winning. Hopefully the Hinch hire is a sign my doubts are mistaken.
warnbeeb
Hinch’s job will be to nurture a bunch of young pitchers with no ace to take the ball every 5 days. He also has to find a batting order with some semblance of consistency.
It’s really the year for Victor Reyes to get 600 abs and see if he can be at least a .280/20/80 guy. Is there any SP who can consistently get them to the 7th inning (30 starts, 210 innings). Mize? Skubal? Turnbull? Fulmer? Imho Matt Manning’s time might be this year.
It would be a shame if these kids pitch their butts off only to lose 4-2, 3-0, 4-1 every day.
alproof
Avila is a zero.
tigerfan4ever
I guess I’m a little skeptical about both Fulmer and Perez. They both have been injured multiple times and I’m not sure if Fulmer will ever return to form. I hope so, I really like him. Perez was the main piece in the JV trade and being that Rogers didn’t even get the call to “summer camp” which speaks volumes and Cameron looked horrible at the plate until he got on thar nice streak towards the end, the jury is out on him, so really it’s looking like either Perez has to stay healthy or the entire trade may be total bust.
BSHH
Actually, Rogers was at “summer camp”, but did not get called up in spite of horrible production of the three catchers. However, I am a bit more bullish on Cameron, who is still quite young and seems to be an able CF defensively. Perez is very young, too, and did at least stay healthy this year.
Gruß,
BSHH
tigerfan4ever
My bad, you’re right, Rogers did go to “summer camp”. I meant to say he didn’t get beyond it. It’s not that I’m not bullish on Daz, quite the opposite actually. I’d like to see more, based on how he finished the season but you do have to admit the start of his career was quite alarming. So I should have quantified that in my previous post. I do still think the jury is out on him long term to save the trade. If he does pan out, the trade isn’t a total bust. I’m not quite as sold on Franklin Perez however even though he was healthy this year, that’s a first since the trade. He’s still young, yes, so there is that, but stay healthy for a few years and progress to and in the majors and then I’ll be sold on him.
johansantana17
Fulmer is cooked
AdleyMVP2022
The tigers have some very good arms coming up. I’m excited to see what they can do in the majors
oldleftylong
We all see it; we all can see it.
BobSacamano
I think now is the time to trade for a young catcher.. I really like Ruiz from LAD. I don’t know what they would need in return, but it may be well worth the risk with all of these young sp’s developmentally. Hopefully Dingler is near AA ready. I’m just not sold on Jake Rogers, as some. ATL’s Langeliers or Contreras would also be very interesting.
Hard to walk with four balls
The Tigers should just nut punch the rest of MLB and sign TJ.
Similar to what happened when they signed Pudge.
tigerfan4ever
TJ? The Tigers should sign Tommy John? Interesting concept.
Hard to walk with four balls
Lay off the stupid pills.
BobSacamano
Idk, about Realmuto. As a Tigers fan, I’m sick of the 5+ year contracts! They have greatly devastated and yet helped this team in the most polarizing fashion possible. Tigers just can’t seem to find a balance
braves25
I would rather the Braves trade for Jose Ramirez or Matt Chapman than sign Turner even for 1 year. I know neither of them are likely available.
Personally if they don’t trade for 1 of those 2 look for a corner OF. Stay away from Turner and Bryant.
Cap & Crunch
I like the direction your heading and totally agree-
I dont think Chapman would be feasible but I do think J-Ram could be had – Id love for my Dodgers to go for him and the Braves have the same arc/ prospect capital/need so it makes sense as well here-
I know this will upset Dodger fans but it would take Lux Ruiz White and Knack to make it happen- I pull that string if I can tho if Im LAD
Another idea for ATL ive had –
ATL- Kyle Seager
Sea Ender + prospects-
See if Kyle will waive trade option or if not have Sea chip in some money for 2022 to pay him down. They took a pretty big gamble on Melancoln like that and it payed off pretty well- Low risk, known floor, position of need
UnknownPoster
Lol yea players love giving away guaranteed money when they will get a fraction of that guarantee on the open market.
Cap & Crunch
He was said to be seriously pondering it already last year if the new team was too his liking- He still gets the 3 mill buyout but yea he would lose a couple mill on the 1/12 left in (theory) –
Who knows, he plays well under a much bigger spotlight in ATL and he could easily parlay his 2020/21 success into one last multi yr deal after the buy-out next year-
Not all human have the same thought process and drives – I think its well worth the call to Jerry and then Kyle thus afterwards on the possibility- The prospect capital wouldn’t be thru the roof (albeit more with Ender attached) (which is nessasary for financial reason in ATL)
UnknownPoster
I mean, I’m not assuming anything about all humans. The guy negotiated that into his own contract. If you trade me, my contract extends me one season at a min of 15M
It’s a trade killer. It’s intended to make him untradeable. I’m assuming he’s maintaining the “logical lense” that his contract was negotiated through. Not sure why you’d assume he will magically change his business thought process (IE, ripping up the option), just because he *may* have a good year
You said have him rip up the option for part of the trade. So he’s not parlaying 2021 into his decision, you’re asking him to waive it altogether. Btw, it also increases up to 20M for PA and awards. No way he’s tearing that up, unhappy or not. He gets max 5-7M a year on the FA market
ChangedName
Wonder if Turner is regretting signing that ridiculously under market deal in his prime earning years the last time around.
Rickey O'Sunnyvale
Yes, I’m sure he regrets becoming a hero in the Los Angeles community, playing in 3 of the last 4 World Series and wearing a world championship ring. after signing a very fair contract based on his production to date.
cecildawg
Changedname. No wonder with comments like that /\.
Cap & Crunch
The contract was actually very fair at the time. Im not saying 1-3 other suitors were not offering the same maybe a smidge more but it was by no means a “ridiculously” underpay at the time- Turner was still rather Green (and old) at the time (32) for a 64 million dollar contract to be inked –
I dont look at it that way tho for Turner….I mean heres a guy when he was going on 30 was probably pondering what his next occupation was going to be after he retired from baseball…..then a top 5 team in baseball finds you, bathes you, burns off all your warts, turns you into a star, hands you the captain patch on offence, then promptly hands you over 64 mill 2 yrs later too boot- I bet he’s pretty grateful for the org in the end rather than being distraught
BobGibsonFan
Tigers should be trying to put major leaguers on the field. So tired of backup infielders playing in the outfield. Sign Turner to play first. Hardly any decent 1b on the market.
Tigers wont do it… they will go with some AAAA 1b. Tanking has been good for them. Full tank mode in 2021 and probably 22 also.
BobSacamano
I honestly didn’t mind the Cron signing. I know he didn’t last long due to injuries. But, maybe they could reunite. I would like to see a catcher upgrade, out of any other position. Even a guy like Casali would probably make a world of difference (at a very reasonable price); compared to what we’ve had these last 2 years.
tigerfan4ever
I liked the Cron signing, it’s a shame he got hurt and agree I wouldn’t mind seeing him come back, especially since they’re likely going to put Candelario at third. I’d love to see Schoop back as well. I really liked how he did in 2020. Agreed on Casali. Sign him for two years and hopefully Dingler will be ready to go by then. I’m wondering if they should go after Rosario. He’d be quite an upgrade from Stewart, but that’s not saying a whole lot. I’m not sure which pitchers they should go after but they need some veteran presence in the rotation and Avila said they were going to do so. The youngsters may very well be on pitch limits as Fulmer and Norris probably will (if Norris isn’t ticketed for the long man out of the pen again.). I think we’ll see some of Manning and Faedo in 2021 as they weren’t too far behind Mize and Skubal.
Rsox
At 36 i don’t see anyone giving Turner three years including the Dodgers
Bjoe
Justin Turner is insane if he thinks he’s getting a three year deal.
DodgerOK
2 years max for Turner. How would the Rays know Archer so well? There is no one except the owner still in the organization.
YourDreamGM
I would absolutely give Turner 3 years, even 5 years, heck let’s go 10 years. Years don’t matter, just the dollar amount. I figure 2 years of his service is worth 25 million. So if he wants 3 years for 30 it doesn’t matter. 4/35 5/40 spread the money out and let inflation do it’s work. Could get lucky and he produces till he is 40. 1 year at 15 million I am down with, not 15 million a year for 3 years. But years are your friend if you are a billionaire owner. Older players realize it is probably their last contract, they just want to see the final lump sum.
differentbears
The Nationals might try. They love deferring money, kicking that can down the road.
Doug Dueck
YourDreamGM – the biggest problem in your suggestion is that the player is on the 40 man roster for those years as well. Giving Turner a 10 year contract now is handcuffing the Dodgers for years down the road – which basically leaves them with a 39 man roster. So then they have to cut him loose and pay him out to regain the spot – which is not very professional; in my opinion.
YourDreamGM
I love Archer and Kluber. Not for 10 million but a few million sign me up. Kluber more $ than Archer for sure. 2 or 3 for Archer, 5 to 7 kluber.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
So…
IF (big hypothetical if, yes, but…if) Chris Archer returns to the Rays, returns to his old form and is a Cy Young contender…
Would that make the trade the Pirates made look better or worse?
On one hand, the Rays would walk away with everything and the Pirates would have gotten nothing out of it, making it look even worse.
OTOH, such a performance would show he was worthy of a high price, even if it didn’t work out in actuality, and make it look (somewhat) better.
If I were another team, I’d take a flyer on Archer just based on the Pirates’ luck.
Rsox
The trade would look worse for Pittsburg if Archer magically regained his form from four or five years ago and Glasnow and Meadows continue to get better. Pirates literally have nothing to show for the trade other than angry fans
User 4095290658
Nothing makes Pirates fans more angry than people who spell Pittsburgh incorrectly.
GarryHarris
I’ve stated this in the past and I’m not just being angry when I say that 27th-30th place is the domain of the Tigers until Miguel Cabrera is gone. Acquiring five free agents won’t change the end result.
I hope the Tigers really stick with the plan. If they want to be a pitching organization, exceptional catching and defense is crucial.
C Austin Romine would be a good 3-year acquisition to share duties with Rogers. Instead of a acquiring a corner OF, give a chance to Derek Hill and Daz Cameron with more ABs. Victor Reyes, Hill and Cameron makes for a great defensive OF.
BobSacamano
Out of all of the free agents why Romine? 3 years?!? He was horrible for the Tigers. I mean why not keep Greiner and Haase back there for a quarter of the price and the exact same production? I’ll happily take Kade Scivicque or Policelli over Romine. I’ll take almost anyone over Romine again. That was just as bad as the Pelfrey & Lowe signing.
to4
2 yrs at $40 M with a $15 Club option for a 3rd one or a $ 5 M buyout. If his option gets bought, he still walks with $45 M over two years. That’s $22.5 a piece. Be happy with it or walk!
raysdude7676
It would be amazing if the Rays get Archer for cheap and he becomes even a decent long relief guy/opener. Always liked Archer so I do hope he comes back to form. Bummer for the Pirates though