The Mets are off to a fast start under new owner Steve Cohen, but there’s more work to be done this offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jacob deGrom, RHP: $97.5MM through 2023
- Robinson Cano, 2B: $48MM through 2023 (2021 salary forfeited because of suspension)
- James McCann, C: $40.6MM through 2024
- Marcus Stroman, RHP: $18.9MM through 2021
- Trevor May, RHP: $15.5MM through 2022
- Jeurys Familia, RHP: $11MM through 2021
- Dellin Betances, RHP: $6MM through 2021
- Brad Brach, RHP: $2.075MM through 2021
- Guillermo Heredia, OF: $1MM through 2021
- Sam McWilliams, RHP: $750K through 2021
- Jacob Barnes, RHP: $750K through 2021
Arbitration-Eligible Players
This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Michael Conforto – $10.1MM
- J.D. Davis – $1.7MM
- Edwin Diaz – $5.6MM
- Robert Gsellman – $1.3MM
- Seth Lugo – $2.4MM
- Brandon Nimmo – $3.3MM
- Amed Rosario – $1.8MM
- Dominic Smith – $1.9MM
- Noah Syndergaard – $9.7MM
- Miguel Castro – $1.3MM
Free Agents
- Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, Todd Frazier, Justin Wilson, Yoenis Cespedes, Wilson Ramos, Robinson Chirinos, Rene Rivera, Jed Lowrie, Jake Marisnick, Jared Hughes, Eduardo Nunez
After years under the yoke of the much-maligned Wilpons, Mets fans were understandably thrilled when the duo sold the franchise to Cohen – who became the wealthiest owner in the majors as soon as he took over the club. Cohen continued to excite the fans at his introductory press conference, saying: “I’m not in this to be mediocre. I want something great.”
There was a lot of mediocrity during the Wilpon regime, evidenced in part by the Mets’ four-year playoff drought. The two most recent unsuccessful seasons came under general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, whom the team parted with once Cohen took the reins. Cohen brought back Sandy Alderson, Van Wagenen’s predecessor, as team president. Alderson subsequently hired former Diamondbacks executive Jared Porter as the GM.
Even before Porter entered the fray, the Mets got to work in upgrading their roster. They quickly made a significant free-agent addition in former Twins right-hander Trevor May – one of the most coveted relievers on the market – on a two-year, $15.5MM contract. He’ll join Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Brad Brach and Robert Gsellman as stone-cold locks for next year’s bullpen. While most of the unit is in place, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club further bolster it with at least one more high-profile pickup. The Mets have interest in the No. 1 free-agent reliever available, former Athletics closer Liam Hendriks, though he’s just one possibility. Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, Trevor Rosenthal, Alex Colome, Kirby Yates and Jake McGee represent other notable options in free agency. On paper, Hand or McGee would make sense for a Mets bullpen devoid of left-handers.
May and the rest of the Mets’ relievers will be throwing to newly acquired catcher James McCann – the first big-money position player signing of the Cohen era. McCann struggled earlier in his career with the Tigers, but the proverbial light bulb seemed to come on during the previous two years as a member of the White Sox. Thanks to his vast improvement in Chicago, McCann scored a four-year, $40.6MM guarantee. Maybe he wasn’t the catcher Mets fans were hoping for (J.T. Realmuto is the best backstop in the game and the top free agent at the position), but McCann makes for a nice consolation prize.
It’s fair to say the Mets aren’t going to stop upgrading their offense with McCann. In fact, it’s quite possible they’ll make a far bigger splash in an effort to better their group of position players. There has been no shortage of speculation connecting the team to free-agent outfielder and Connecticut native George Springer, who MLBTR predicts will land a five-year, $125MM contract this winter. The Mets already have a crowded outfield picture with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith, so it’s unclear what a Springer signing would mean for any of them. Regardless, Springer would presumably take over as the Mets’ starting center fielder – a role Nimmo held in 2020.
The infield has also been a source of rumors centering on the Mets, particularly in the wake of Robinson Cano’s season-long suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. That wiped Cano’s massive salary off the books, but it also took away a player who slashed an excellent .316/.352/.544 with 10 home runs in 182 plate appearances last season. That’s going to be a tough void to fill, though the Mets do have a capable in-house replacement in Jeff McNeil. Of course, that’s assuming the Mets don’t keep McNeil in a super-utility role or even use him in a trade. If he’s not their second baseman, they could steal free agent DJ LeMahieu from the Yankees. Other than LeMahieu, there don’t appear to be any second base upgrades over McNeil in free agency or on the trade front.
There is a bit less certainty on the left side of New York’s infield, but that’s not to say it’s in bad shape. Third baseman J.D. Davis continued to hit in 2020 (albeit not as well as he did the prior year), while Andres Gimenez stepped up as a rookie and outperformed Amed Rosario at short. The Mets could simply stick with Davis and Gimenez, but it’s worth noting both positions feature prominent free agents and trade possibilities. LeMahieu and former Met Justin Turner are available as potential third base choices, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons remain unsigned at short.
Trade speculation has pointed the Mets toward Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, who’s due a whopping $199MM over the next years. If acquiring him isn’t in the cards, the Mets could make a splash at short by landing the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story. Both players are under control for just one more season, but considering Cohen is flush with cash, the Mets could conceivably extend either player within the next year. Alderson did indicate earlier in the offseason that he’d prefer to keep his young talent in place, which points more to the free-agent route than a trade. However, he suggested earlier this week that the Mets will be involved in the trade market for high-priced players on long-term contracts (Arenado fits the bill) and players on expiring deals (Lindor and Story check that box).
A year ago at this time, it looked as if the Mets’ rotation would be a major strength in 2020. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were supposed to be among the premier trios in baseball, but that plan went up in smoke before the season even began. Ultimately, deGrom was the only member of the group who threw a single pitch in 2020. Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March, and Stroman opted out because of COVID-19. The Mets aren’t going to get Syndergaard back until sometime next summer, but Stroman will return after accepting their $18.9MM qualifying offer.
DeGrom, Stroman and David Peterson give the Mets three sure bets for their starting staff as they await Syndergaard’s comeback, but the unit still needs work in the meantime. It’s unclear, for instance, whether Seth Lugo will start or go back to the bullpen in 2021. And while the Mets did keep Steven Matz around on a $5.2MM salary, they’d be hard-pressed to count on him in the wake of his awful season.
Considering the uncertainty surrounding Lugo and Matz, expectations are that the Mets will acquire at least one proven starter in the coming months. The arrival of Cohen seems to make the team a realistic suitor for reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, the leading free agent available at any position. The rest of the free-agent starting class isn’t nearly as exciting, though longtime Yankee Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber, Adam Wainwright and James Paxton are among accomplished arms looking for jobs. The trade market lost an enticing starter when Lance Lynn went from the Rangers to the White Sox earlier this month, but former Cy Young winner Blake Snell (Rays) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) have the potential to move. Either of those two would help the Mets’ rotation.
Whatever the Mets do for the remainder of the offseason, the Cohen-led organization isn’t going to make moves that hamper their goal of building a perennial winner.
“You build champions, you don’t buy them,” Cohen stated during his introduction. “We’ve got a great core on this team, and we’re going to get better and I plan to make the investments we need to succeed. We want to win now, but we’re also building for the long term.”
Having already spent on May, McCann and Stroman, Cohen has so far lived up to his promise to invest in the roster. It’s anyone’s guess what the Mets will do next, but thanks to their new owner, they’re one of the truly intriguing teams to watch during what has been a slow winter in Major League Baseball.
Lol they’re not trading McNeil good work otherwise
Thanks. I don’t think he’s going anywhere either. Just brought it up to cover all bases.
i highly doubt it either, but i think its not egregious to include it anyway
poor job try a research assistant or read Alex Colome’s sign with Angels 2 days ago.
Alex Claudio signed with the Angels. Alex Colome is still a free agent.
LOL… would you like some ointment for that burn Larry. Great Article Connor, despite Larry’s failed attempt to suggest otherwise.
Thank you!
nice work Larry
@Larry48
Ouch! You got burned big time. In your face! Lol
I’m expecting a 95+ win team
only if they get Springer and another good SP otherwise maybe 80 wins.
Yeah I worded it wrong. I’m expecting them to buy a (trade or sign) team worth 95 wins.
I feel confident they’ll get Springer and some pitching. (I really hope they get Springer, at least.)
Same
Are the Mets taking a page out of the Yankees play book???
Lotta work needs to be done to get there. Might not happen all in one offseason but it’s possible.
I don’t think it’s that far off. The 2019 team was a 95 win team in other divisions. That year the NL east was stacked too. (It won’t be next year)
i dont see how its going to be any less. Washington and Philly might not be going big into the market but i dont see either rolling over. ATL’s already bolstered their rotation, and Miami probably has some intent to make moves to improve their roster.
Mostly that the Nats won’t be the powerhouse they use to be. And I’m still not scared of the Marlins at all.
and i dont think either sentiment is wrong, but the Nats were bad last year. they probably wolnt rebound to 2019 form, but i feel they probably will be better. and i dont think the Marlins are a likely shot for even 2nd in the division, but i dont see them being pushovers either.
I wouldn’t be “scared” of the Marlins either but I’d be concerned about them. Their SP’s are legit and they’re improving elsewhere. As a Braves fan, I think it’s going to be an interesting division for the foreseeable future.
Agreed. The Marlins are a team thats got some talent, and their pitching is only getting better. Sleep on them at your own peril.
I’m going to go ahead and stay asleep lol. Wake me up when they have talent of the Offensive side of the ball.
I like this. Yes, stay asleep. Don’t pay attention or worry about the Marlins. Even if they are winning, do not worry about them until they clinch something.
BTW, the 2019 Mets are not the 2021 Mets. And the 2021 Mets won’t be playing the 2019 teams. And I don’t get how anyone will dismiss the Nats, when they weren’t the team that finished in last place this past season.
They tied for last place with the Mets…….. which is irrelevant for any team that finishes in last place. There were a ton of team that after 60 games looked like crap and then went on a tear.
Projecting a win total when we don’t know the number of games that will be played. Very on brand @metsfan22
to suggest he doesnt otherwise mean a 95 win pace over 162 games? or that there realistically should be 162 games?
You spelled loss wrong
Yankee
I’m expecting you to be disappointed.
Not likely. 1 there may not even be 95 games. 2 tough division.
You will likely be very disappointing then, this is hardly even an 80 win team. Looks like another last place team and roster again.
Alonso, deGrom and a decent bullpen will win you 70 games but the Mets might make it to .500 if all the stars align and they get a little luck.
You think they will write anything about the Mets today? its been awhile…
you do realize that ownership changes for teams looking to contend tend to cause lots of rumors, right?
it was a joke….you do realize that some people have a sense of humor, right?
Not in Philly they don’t.
no to be honest, because a lot of people on this site make complaints like this in a serious manner.
well I wasn’t trying to be serious sorry…I actually like the Mets and glad to see them getting things going….it’s refreshing to see a team actually trying to get better in this covid-era
I hope so!
Have to confirm what Darkside said. I didn’t realize it was a joke either because you see many, crazier posts than that on these comment sections that posters are actually serious about. That and it’s not always easy to read a posters intentions of humor into text.
I can see going hard after some bats, but I don’t see why there going so hard after Bauer.I know u want to kick the tires on him thou, but I think the Mets need more depth pitching, over top tier expensive pitching. Spend it on the bats yeah?
they need starters, plain and simple. the lineup is pretty good, but the quality of the rotation drops off quickly. even their 2 and 3, Stroman and Peterson are major injury concerns, and Thor wolnt be ready to start the season and may even be a question mark when he comes back. what they need is to hit on a innings eater like they hoped they could with Porcello or Wacha last year. the lineup is strong enough to hold its own.
Bauer is more of a need than a want as the only true #2 on the FA market…..get Bauer and sign some lesser pitchers and see what happens!
Excluding 2020, Stroman has averaged 29.8 starts a year over the previous five seasons. He suffered the torn ACL in 2015, but bounced back with that five year average, and the torn calf muscle last year wouldn’t have prevented Stoman from pitching a decent amount of games if 2020 were a regular season. I don’t thinks he’s that major of an injury concern. But I agree- any additional starting pitching additions should not be injury question marks because of Thor. If they continue to strengthen the bullpen and add that big bat, perhaps they can weather SP issues like the Yankees did in 2020.
yeah, i think i overestimate the likelihood of a Stroman injury, but i just feel saying he’s entirely dependable is a dangerous assumption when he did miss almost a year with the ACL and that the other injury is fairly recent and he hasnt thrown a regular season game since 2019. (which could go both ways as far as another injury goes, granted)
Stroman’s major concern is mouth, not injury. To live up to the talk, he has to pitch “bigger” than he is. (Or smarter.) Trying to do that carries some risk but the Mets may only have to “load manage” his innings in the first month or two to ensure he can his weight later in the season.
This is a big year for him.
That QO is grabbing what he can when he can. Thought it was a good move for him. Stro …after the hiatus, has to prove himself to get the payday he wants, now.
Perfect storm: Great (self) expectations …on a decent team (getting better), with ownership in a position to reward him for exceeding them. He could be in line for the 2021 version of a $100 million if he pitches as good as he says he can.
to be fair, even the load management suggestion would make another SP who can save the bullpen some a good addition to offset shorter Stroman starts.
Stay far, far away from Joe Musgrove. He’s a 5th starter at best and wouldn’t add much value beyond a long relief role.
He’s a 3-win starter who is just entering his prime. The Mets only have two better than that right now.
5th starter at best? Had a 3.42 FIP with 55 strikeouts in 39.2 innings on a beyond terrible team
I’d gladly take him on my team as a starter with upside
This is one of those commenters that doesn’t see anything other than an ERA that’s over 3 which means he sucks.
I don’t believe in Musgrove either. In fact, it’s going to be difficult to put together a dominant five-man rotation with what is on the market right now. Kluber and Paxton have the track record, but I’m concerned that giving too many years/dollars to fledgling pitchers is going to negatively affect their ability to actually compete with the Braves.
McNeil has hit over 310 for 3 straight seasons…but he’s still considered a “utility piece”. Doesn’t make sense he should be regarded as a star not someone who’s expendable
He’s utility cuz of how awkwardly the Met D is organized, not a knock on him. Ona better constructed team he’d be full time 2B.
i mean it doesnt really matter. Brock Holt was an all star as a utility player in 2015. its not rocket science to consider a guy who moves around can simply be an everyday piece at a position that changes by day.
I’d call him a super utility. Guy that can play everyday all over the field and you aren’t losing anything offensively or defensively. Like prime Zobrist.
I think you don’t understand how valuable a super utility is. Someone who can bat at an all-star level and fill multiple positions has incredible worth.
Well written article. Mets fans have reason to be excited.
I’m curious – so with his salary forfeited for this season, how does that affect his luxury tax impact? That’s determined based on AAV, but in the middle of a multi-year contract, how does that work?
the aav based on the total the contract is worth not what is paid so if a contract for 4 years 100 was 50/25/12.5/12.5 and in year 3 he gets suspended for the year they lose 12.5.in actual salary but for luxury the team would gain 25M back.
I could be wrong but im pretty sure thats the way it works.
its a real shame that McNeil will probably never make that much money given his age. i dont usually make complaints like this, but its rare to see such a serious case of a guy coming up at his age and dominating. usually guys who debut at his age and hit the ground running are imports on guaranteed contracts.
What about signing Bauer and Odorizzi and trading Giménez, Nimmo, and Peterson for either Arenado and International slot/money or Lindor and International slot/money.
Then sign Springer. Thoughts?
The Mets would give up less for either player
Yes I think that option is open to them. Obviously the Rockies would have no interest in Gimenez, but the Indians surely would (although they have good minor league SS too). Question is if the Mets want to invest in either of those guys as opposed to just signing a couple high end FA’s and grabbing one of the elite SS as a free agent next year. That said, if they sign Springer they have no obvious use for Nimmo other than as a depth piece. And if they trade for Arenado they have no use for Davis, again other than as a OF depth piece (Arenado almost never takes a day off). Especially since Smith/Alonso will have the DH slot covered.
If I’m the Mets, though, I’m a little wary of DeGrom, who’s by far their most important player, getting up there a bit in age (he turns 33 this year, and Stroman turns 30). I’m not sure I don’t just get everyone on board now and go for it hard starting in 2021, which means getting Lindor or Arenado.
But the proposed trades don’t actually make them better, they just bring in a big name star. If you wanna win with deGrom you don’t do that trade. Folks are way overestimating the impact of one big name player on a team.
why would the Rox have “no interest” in Gimenez? they might not want him badly, but i dont think they would say he’s just a throw-in in a deal at best.
They have shortstop covered, that’s why. GImenez has more value playing shortstop for the Mets than he does in a trade to the Rockies for a third basemen. If they were to trade for Arenado, you’d have to think that at least one major leaguer would have to go back to Colorado in the deal, though. Davis makes the most sense, but Rosario and Dom Smith could as well. Either way, they run the risk of giving up valuable arbitration-eligible pieces for one year of Arenado. The risk is pretty high on either end of that deal.
Anyone who trades for Arenado is getting him for the full 6 years left in his contract. Even with a big season, there’s zero chance he opts out of that contract. He was overpaid from the beginning and short of a triple crown season, he won’t do enough in 2021 to warrant him opting out of his massive deal.
If im rockies Gimenez would be important as he is not even arbitration eligible yet and you have a player that is gone in a year.
With Gimenez it allows story to be traded giving the team more younger players and lower payroll which is what the rockies are aiming for. This also means you still have a competitive replacement and dont need to jump at offers you dont like. Worst case Gimenez or story move to either middle infield positions or to 3rd if arrenado is traded this year.
Weary of deGrom? Lunacy.
Nope. As a Met fan I don’t even consider it. Waaaay too much to give up for one year of Lindor and I want no part of Arenados contract. Plus trading Nimmo and Gimenez and Peterson basically washes out any upgrade you get from the player you get back. I really just don’t get why folks are trying to force these terrible trades for big names. The idea is to make the team better, not be like, oooo look at the all-star I just got. (Sorry, don’t mean to be snarky I’m just really sick of folks proposing the Mets trade away perfectly good players for flash).
i agree 100%!! if the Mets want Lindor bad enough, wait and sign him next offseason as a FA and save the prospects!! But stay away from Arenado because its way too much money to take on….
That’s like 100m/yr being added to their payroll.
Keep McNeil to play 2B, Davis in LF, and unload Nimmo, Gimenez, Rosario, Peterson and prospects to the Rox’s for Story and Arenado. Then go ahead and haul in Bradley Jr. to play CF, Confy in RF, and Davis/Smith between LF-DH if the DH holds. If it doesn’t, than sweeten the deal up and include either one as part of the deal as well.
1.McNeil 2B
2.Story SS
3.Alonso 1B
4.Arenado 3B
5.Conforto RF
6.Davis LF
7.Smith DH
8.McCann C
9.Bradley Jr. CF
That’s a pretty good line up if they can make it happen.
That lineup would maul, but the “…and prospects” part of the scenario is the problem. The vast majority of the Mets’ talent in the minors is really young, so while high-upside…they are risky. Story is the most valuable piece the Rockies have to use towards a rebuild, AND moving him with Arenado would make the package going back something massive so the fan base doesn’t revolt.
I just don’t think the Mets lineup with the Rockies in term of prospects. Taking a higher quality guy off of the 26 man roster to make up for the lack of a top 5-10 can’t miss guy makes it hard to see a deal that makes sense. If I were moving Story, I’d ask for McNeil, their stud C prospect Alvarez, and be firm about giving up as little $ as possible to offset the $199m of Arenado going back to the Mets. I doubt the Mets do that deal, but Story is a huge chip for the Rockies to move, so they’d need a lot back.
Yea great lineup but acquiring Arenado and Story then that lineup won’t exist. There is no way we acquire two of those players and still keep the lineup intact.
McNeil has outhit Arenado the last 2+ seasons, and for <10% of the cost. I really want them to avoid Arenado like the plague. He is a GG 3B, quality bat, and seemingly all around good guy…but he's on the wrong side of the $199m.
I think the Mets are best served signing Springer in the 5/$125m range and then spreading any remaining money around and not gambling $150m+ on Bauer. If Bauer accepted some kind of 1-2yr higher AAV contract could be interesting, but otherwise I'd rather go after a solid #3-#4, add Hendriks/similar, and see if a team is looking to dump salary on a starter. This approach also may leave some flexibility for an in-season move. Having that extra $23m this year from Cano's suspension offers an interesting wrinkle to their options. I think with teams looking to slash salary…that $23m is best spent hunting a salary dump. Inglesias from the Reds would have been an interesting piece for them.
As a lifelong Met fan, I'm still waiting for the Wilpons to fight Cohen in court and/or otherwise ruin another Mets season before it begins.
Does the “M” in MLBTR stand for the Mets?
People really mad their team isn’t a good as the Mets lol
The Mets are good and gonna get better. My frustration is more that the Angels aren’t doing anything to report on!
Angels are getting Bauer don’t worry!
I’m good with that only if we don’t pay too much or for too long. Pitchers are volatile. We need 2 decent starters and a few more BP pieces.
The guy you guys hired looks to be good. I’m pretty sure he has a good plan to fix the pitching over there.
When he dumped Bedrosian and another five BP pitchers a couple weeks ago, that was a good sign. He was known in Atlanta for building their pitching staff up. So we have high hopes if Moreno will let him do what he needs to do.
Yup I think the angels do good next year.
because they have fans who can photoshop
The Mets are the only team not impacted financially by the pandemic. So of course there are going to be rumors galore. Big market team with money. Cohen has backed up his words with solid moves. They deserve all the press.
I’m not sure who sold you your hallucinogenic drugs but the Blue Jays are also totally unaffected by the virus. Their payroll is around $90m and they’re heading towards $150+m this season .maybe even $175m…
I wouldn’t say totally unaffected, but one of the least impacted surely. In terms of ability to spend, you’re absolutely right.
News flash: adding a player like Lindor or Arenado would improve the Mets, but NOT if they have to give up one or two or three of their very good players to do it. So trading Nimmo, or Peterson etc? It doesn’t help the team.
Mets don’t have 3 very good players.
Degrom, Alonso, McNeil. Three very good players.
Alonso is TBD after 2020, but Conforto is legit.
Really? Alonso, after crushing it in the minors, hit 53 HRs (breaking the rookie record), good for 5 WAR in ‘19, and you’ll let a 123 OPS+ in a 60 game season cause you to question whether or not he’s very good? Seems harsh.
Yes. He looked completely lost. Reminds me
of Hoskins who had a similar trajectory. I would bet money that Alfonso fixes himself, but he could turn into an all or nothing type of hitter. Which would actually work for the Mets. 60 games is not enough to judge a player, but it’s more than a slump. I think it’s fair to be a little cautious.
Oof, yea. I see what you mean about Hoskins. Good comp. I hope Alonso doesn’t go that way.
Oof. Apologies for the Alfonso typo. I’m often typing on the phone.
Comforto, Stroman, Diaz. Three more good players.
Dom Smith, Thor, Nimmo. Three more!
Lugo Jd Peterson
LOL@rct & Crunch. I think larry’s comment is thoroughly debunked! =D
deGrom, Conforto, Alonso, McNeil, Nimmo, Smith.
And that’s before they add at least one, if not two, in this off season.
And get Syndergaard back in June.
I’m starting to think that me are Darkside are the only two fans on this site who have reasonable expectations for their teams lol. Heck, the Rangers upped my expectations this off-season with what they’ve done. I expected a Kim signing, a Lynn trade, and a new starting pitcher. They’ve done more. On the other hand, I see some Mets’ fans saying that they can just trade for all the all-stars or Rangers’ fans saying that we can flip Guzman for Dom Smith lol. Idk if it’s the constant disappointment by the Phillies and Rangers that have kept our expectations reasonable, but either way I think we both want a modest, yet productive, off-season.
For my part, I’m expecting 90-95 wins out of the White Sox (if a full season is played) and a playoff spot. I’m very disappointed they filled their RF hole with Eaton instead of several better options, but even with their late season swoon, they were on a 95 win pace last year. Factor in likely regression from Keuchel, Abreu, and Anderson and the loss of McCann and improvement from Robert, Moncada, and the back end of their rotation, plus the addition of Lynn, and they should be about as good this coming year.
As for trades, every fan base has people proposing crazy trades. Occasionally, I do it just to start conversations, but I usually don’t involve the White Sox when I do. Yankee fans get a lot flak for having the worst trade ideas, but there are more of them, so more nuts are going to be there, too.
I actually think the WS are going to be a very good team next season. Vaughn might come up and fill the DH void for Mccann and Edwin so that’ll be good. The only thing that scares me about that team is how the chemistry is going to get effected by losing Renteria and hiring TLR plus signing Eaton. I feel like some egos might collide in there. To be frank, it reminds me of the Callaway hire by the Mets. He might’ve been good at something else (or been good a while back), but when you put him in an odd position he’ll be likely to trip on his own foot.
Despite that, I love their staff. I’ll still try to watch some of the Lynn starts because he’s one of my favorite pitchers now, so I guess I’ll see some more WS games too. But Giolito, Keuchel, and Lynn are going to be a nasty trio along with an emergence or Cease or Kopech…. ooo that staff would be great.
WS looking good though, I hope they do well.
I’m happy for the CWS bc they have a potentially *stacked* team that should do some damage. A lot of young talent, payroll flexibility, etc. Admittedly I have 2-3 WS minor leaguers in my dynasty league, so I know them better than most non-elite AL systems.
As a Mets fan we have been starved for better ownership, and that happened on top of a financially uncertain time, so it feels doubly good. I’m sure some of the proposals are yankee-esque, but we’ve been a beaten down fanbase for a few decades now.
With Lowe here and others coming, Guzman is not a part of the Ranger’s future. My guess is he is sent to Bal, Col, or Clev for lottery picks or is paired with Odor and a couple of A-ball prospects for whatever they can get in return.
ask some of the people on this site and im crazy to think the Phillies could even be .500.
Watch the bullpen be lights out, but the team can’t hit this year. That’d be typical Phillies. I think they finish above .500, but do not make the playoffs. 3rd or 4th in the division. All this can change if they make a few moves. Braves 1st. Mets 2nd. Marlins, Phils, Nats fight the rest out. Keep in mind I had the same exact predictions last year and was only right about the Braves.
Trade Alonso for snell. Dont need 2 first baseman.
I think the Mets should trade Alonso in a package for Snell.
Alonso is not enough but he’s a great start. He’s from Tampa so that should be a selling point to a team that has trouble drawing fans. And the Mets eliminate some redundancy in their lineup (Smith and Pete are best suited to first base).
This would cost the Mets some prospect capital but not as much if Alonso is the centerpiece. The Rays don’t need a first base/DH type but any team could use a 50+ HR bat.
Here’s the trade I made in BTV:
Mets get Snell
Rays get Alonso, J.T Ginn, Shervyen Newton, and Michel Otanez
The biggest prospect there is Ginn, though Otanez and Newton aren’t scrubs. They’re in the middle of the Mets’ prospects too. This trade kind of teeters on if the DH comes to the NL in 22′. If it does, I wouldn’t make this deal. If it won’t, I’d do it. It just depends.
Interesting. Don’t think it would really take much more, if anything more at all, than Alonso. He’s pretty great and Snell has been a bit up and down. But I dunno if the Rays would have any interest in that. Alonso is redundant to the Mets (until the DH arrives) but dunno if the Rays wanna part with Snell, no reason for them to really.
Now we are cookin with oil.
I totally agree Snell should be the PRIME target for this team moving forward – I suggested this a week ago with a little wrinkle in adding KK’s underwater contract to the Mets to offset some of the capital back –
My proposal was one of Alonso/Dom/Jd with Nimmo and some minor leaguers for Snell and KK…. Its hard to beat the Rays in a fair fight; but If your willing to take KK they let their guard down and Snell becomes much easier to get. Theres more leverage with money today in the trade market than free agency, they gotta roll up their sleeves and flex it to the best of its abilities
Circle gets the square, nice post Dave
The Mets would be giving up WAY too much in a KK -Snell for Alonso – Nimmo trade. In BTV, it has the Mets giving up 76 and the Rays giving up 42. Even in my head I can’t fathom the Mets doing that. According to BTV, the Rays would have to throw in WILLY ADAMES to make that trade work lmao. I don’t take BTV too seriously, but even in my head I can’t imagine a world where the Mets make that trade.
You can always downgrade to Dom or JD- Thats why theres so much legs to this trade- You can take out Nimmo if you want too as well…personally If im a mets fan id love to keep Nimmo as a 4th Of and KK insurance (which you’ll prolly need )
BTV is almost completely useless bc it factors money being the same to both franchises- Obv thats not the case-
A nickel to the Mets seems like an Andrew Jackson to the Rays these days so your going to run into that flaw everytime with BTV
If you add up the Mets free agents + Cano’s $$ coming off that’s around $80 mil
McCann $10 mil
May $7.5 mil
Other RP’s they signed a couple mil
That’s around $20 mil besides the raises to some current players
Springer $20-$25 mil per year
I would sign Odorizzi $10 mil per
Than trade for Snell (Nimmo,Mauricio,Matz and maybe another minor leaguer) bet Snell’s $$ and the Mets players in the trade that’s only adding like $6 mil)
So $80ish mil off the books and adding $20 mil Springer $25 mil Odorizzi $10 mil Snell’s $6ish mil.= there’s still close to $20 mil from the $80 mil left for Raises and others and still at the payroll of this year ?
Mets fans enjoy the millions of ridiculous trade proposals that never happen. They think they will sign every top free agent. Good luck with that.
Most of the proposed trades are lopsided against the Mets and never gonna happen. New ownership has us excited that we might be big players. What’s the bug up yet butt about that?
Met haters should get a life and root for your own team and not worry about what makes Met’s fans happy or not. Not enough going on with your own team to have you post here?
It’s the off-season, James. People can dream! Mets’ fans have reason for optimism. Until contracts are signed elsewhere, Mets (and, apparently, the Jays?) are “in” on everyone!
This is an example of the stupid backlash against an excited fan base that hasn’t had much to cheer about. Happens every time. Happened with the Padres this year, happened with the Braves when they came out of rebuild and it’s happing with the Mets now.
It’s going to happen to any team/player that’s constantly in the media. Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Bryce Harper, Lebron…whenever a team or player is over exposed the haters come out. I grew up hating the Mets. Still do (even though my wife is a big fan/former employee). But you can’t help but be excited for their fanbase here. Cohen is good for baseball, and so far, good for the organization. I can still hate this team, but I’m loving the moves so far.
Yes, good luck with the richest owner in the entire league stepping up and signing top free agents.
A real pipe dream!
He can sign these guys with what’s in his change jar.
“DeGrom, Stroman and David Peterson give the Mets three sure bets for their starting staff”
I’m sorry, what? David Peterson is a “sure bet” for the starting staff? He has 9 major league starts in a COVID-shortened season and wasn’t exactly a Can’t Miss prospect in the minors. As a fan, I hope he pitches well, but I don’t think I would expect a whole lot from him.
I think he meant sure bet for a starting job and that’s all.
I took it as a “sure bet” to be in the rotation. imo, 3-4 bad starts to open the season and Peterson is either in the bullpen or the minors. Right now, he’s probably penciled in at #4 or 5 at best, depending on FA signings. If they manage to sign 1-2 starting pitchers, Peterson might not even be in the rotation. He’s anything but a “sure bet”.
Four year playoff drought, not five. As a diehard Met fan, we need every inch of respectability we can get haha
You’re right. Sorry for the mistake there.
No-lan for me…
If Rox really want the Mets to be engaged and want to move Nolan, they need to pay down a lot more of that $200 million that he is owed over the next six years and not expect much back. Potentially taking Cano’s contract back back does help with some of that cost, and they would also need for him to waive the opt out after next season. If I am the Mets, I’m not giving or offering any top prospects for him.
His #s are hugely influenced by playing in COL. as his career BA is 60 points higher at home, SLG is 140 points higher and OBP is 50 points higher. Career OPS on road is under .800, the line to delineate a “good hitter, and his numbers at Citi over his career are worse than almost any other park (.229BA, .275OBP, .410SLG, .684 OBP). No thanks. I’ll pass and pursue Lindor if I could work a sign and trade, or possibly bryant
Its going to take a huge deal to pry Arenado from the Rockies. 1st off, he has earned his salary so far and more. 2nd, his defense is the best in baseball.
That whole “his numbers outside of Coors suck” stuff don’t play. Look at LeMahieu. Look at every player traded away from Coors before their 31st birthday. Their numbers on the road improved after leaving Coors.
The last 5 full season his OPS+ is 129 That is a stat that takes into account the ballpark he plays his games in. in those 5 seasons he has averaged 6.3 WAR.
Its crazy to think that its not going to take a huge haul to get a guy with those numbers.
Bottom line: the fact that any team who acquires him has to take on the full contract lessens his trade value. But yea, he’s a very good player. Mets don’t need him, though.
I confidently predict Mets and Phillies will engage fiercely all season back and forth for the spot that just finishes outside the post season ! Follow my advice to win guaranteed money if you’re a person who likes winning money
Admittedly, I didn’t watch a ton of Mets games. But of those I did watch, Nimmo did not strike me as a very good CFer. His bat is “Ok:, but Springer does make a lot of sense there.
Springer makes no sense until they fix the rotation. You do not need to watch games to know that Nimmo has elite ability to get on base and, if healthy, is a 4 WAR player. I don’t understand the rush to replace him with Springer (who is great) when pitching is an enormous hole on the team.
deGrom is great, but then there’s Stroman (skipped the entire 2020 season), Syndergaard (coming off injury, not back until June at the earliest), Peterson (unproven), Matz (wildly inconsistent and injury-plagued).
Unless they sign or trade for someone, it could be a disaster, Springer or not.
Nimmo is a great hitter, but you are correct, he is awful in CF. This is why they need Springer.
It’s crazy, but I’d move Alonso for Snell, sign Springer and move Dom to 1B. Defense improves, we’re 4 deep in the rotation and if Thor returns and seems ok, that rotation is solid. Sign Hand to get the LH closer with Diaz on the right side and resign Wilson and I think the defense just got better, offense actually improved, and pitching has some traction. Yeah, Alonso is popular, etc, but sophomore year showed his weak spots and his defense is pretty damn bad. Love him as a fan, but for the greater good…
How about this trade….
smith and Rosario for Trea turner and braymer( lefty bullpen)?
I dont really see the value in braymer. He gives up a hit per inning and nearly a walk per inning. His AAA stats in 2019 were even worse. He had better stats in the lower minors but that was as a starter and he was older than most of the competition. You might be better excluding him from the deal but i dont see that deal from either side with or without braymer in the deal. If it was more of a stud lefty maybe. but you are losing arguably your best power hitter for a slightly better short stop
I wouldn’t call Peterson, or any other pitcher, a “sure thing” based solely off less than a half season of starts
What are the odds anyone actually signs Cespedes?
It’s the Mets, they will find a path to failure.
Lolmets
Bring on Wainwright. He’s an actual pitcher who has rebounded very nicely and really mixes it up now, very similar to Colon. Any one of the other starters would be welcome and not cost what Bauer is expecting. Plus, I’m just not sold on that one year contract demand he wants.
I’d consider bringing back Justin Wilson. He was quite dependable and can pitch to both sides. Hand would be a great add, too. I’d welcome every reliever there except McGee.
Wilson Ramos would be a solid #2 and already knows the staff. I could see a scenario where he and McCann are a 60/40 split. Let Ramos catch deGrom and Peterson and McCann the other 3. This also allows for solid double switch scenarios.
The Mets are dealing from a position of strength for the first time in years. They don’t need to unload Davis, Smith, Nimmo or even Rosario. But if the right deal comes along with more than 1 year of control, they can package.
I’d pass on Bauer unless he’d go 3 years. Use that money on Springer and sign Wainwright and Odorizzi or Paxton. That bumps Matz to AAA, which he needs. Maybe he finds himself, maybe he transforms into a leverage reliever or trade chip.
Syndergaard is a mid season wild card. He needs to come back healthy so he can be traded or extended. Only looking at 10 or do starts for him. He’s probably a QO type of guy for the compensation.
Every piece the Mets need is sitting there in free agency, bullpen, starters, infield and outfield.
For the first time in decades….Met fans don’t have to listen to the BS line from ownership that getting a player back from serious injury mid-season is like “trading for an all-star”. It isn’t and never was that.
Resign porcello. He was better than his record showed.
Porcello to the Phillies. I’m basing that off absolutely nothing but gut feeling. Mets will get a bigger fish.
Can’t even think of a trade for Arenado that would make sense for the Rockies. Mets don’t have the high end prospect or the controllable young talent on the team to get the job done. Rosario is obviously not a fit in Colorado.
Maybe McNeill, Alvarez, Baty and Kilome with Rockies eating $30 million of his deal and Arenado waiving his opt out? Even that doesn’t make much sense for the Rockies.
Doesn’t make sense for the Rockies & it doesn’t make sense for the Mets to trade away McNeil or any of their High end prospects either
Trading McNeil for Arenado makes no sense. Losing too much to gain an awful contract. McNeil is too good. Again, the Mets don’t HAVE to trade for Arenado.
Arrenado has no surplus value if not negative at the current contract, Short of the Rockies adding something to the pot (cash or other people) the best you getting is fringe players or salary dumps.
Think of Yankees Marlins Stanton trade
Jeff mcneil is the wally backman/ tim teufel platoon all by himself…he has teufels power plus more and backmans speed and hitting ability( bunting,infield hits)… no sense to trade him.
We’re in for a Modified Wilpon offseason.
Such a shame Cohen brought back Alderson, who has steered Cohen all wrong. The Mets window is 2021 and 2022, after which they’ll lose or pay FA prices to retain Syndergaard, Stroman, Conforto, Nimmo, May, Lugo, and Diaz, while deGrom will be able to opt-out, and each of Alonso, McNeil, Dom, and JD Davis will be getting arb 2 money–something like 30m if they’ve been productive, versus about $3m today.
Meanwhile it’s unlikely much of the farm will be up and productive during the 2023 season.
This really was it. The Mets needed to go for it, and had the money to go for it, but instead we got Alderson’s “two belts and a suspender” approach, where with Matz and Gsellman he’s getting patches for patches. It’s absurd.
As for this…
“Even before Porter entered the fray, the Mets got to work in upgrading their roster. They quickly made a significant free-agent addition in former Twins right-hander Trevor May – one of the most coveted relievers on the market – on a two-year, $15.5MM contract. He’ll join Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Brad Brach and Robert Gsellman as stone-cold locks for next year’s bullpen.”
—If there’s one thing we can hope Cohen understands at this point, it’s that all of Betances, Familia, and Brach are sunk costs. There’s little reason to play them, to keep them on the roster, if they aren’t among the team’s best eight bullpen arms, and none are likely to be even that good, never mind “stone cold locks.”
As for giving Gsellman $1.3m, that only makes sense if the Mets see him thanks to his option remaining as something like #9 on their SP depth chart, a guy they can stretch out in the minors and eventually use because of rotation injuries in the hopes his ERA as a starter works out to be no worse than replacement level, or around 4.80, something they’ve had problems with for the entire decade.