The Mets are “looking into” right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano as they seek to upgrade their rotation, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sugano was posted for MLB clubs earlier this month, and teams have until Jan. 7 to complete a contract with him before that posting window expires.
New York has been prominently connected to Trevor Bauer as a potential free-agent target, but numerous reports have indicated over the past week-plus that George Springer is the team’s primary focus at the moment. Sherman agrees, calling Springer the “centerpiece” of their offseason plans. As such, an expectation has emerged that the Mets will look to the second tier of starting pitchers in their search to augment their rotation, and the 31-year-old Sugano is arguably the best of the bunch.
[Related: Yomiuri Giants Post Tomoyuki Sugano For MLB Clubs]
One of the premier pitchers in Japan, Sugano is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award — Nippon Professional Baseball’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award. After a “down” 2019 season that saw him log a 3.89 ERA, Sugano rebounded with 137 1/3 innings of 1.97 ERA ball in 2020, averaging 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. Dating back to the 2015 season, Sugano has thrown more than 1000 innings with a 2.19 ERA while averaging better than eight strikeouts and fewer than two walks per nine frames. Of note, Sherman writes that large-market teams may have the upper hand in pursuing Sugano, as NPB’s Giants are viewed as the “Yankees of Japan,” playing their home games at the famed Tokyo Dome.
It’s not clear just what type of arrangement Sugano will command on the open market, but a multi-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary seems reasonable to anticipate. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a two-year, $24MM deal in his updated free-agent rankings and contract predictions. If a team believes Sugano to be closer to a No. 2 or No. 3 starter in MLB, it’s certainly possible that he could secure a third year or a hike on that annual salary.
The Mets, of course, have Jacob deGrom atop their rotation and will also rely on Marcus Stroman after the righty accepted an $18.9MM qualifying offer. Rookie David Peterson was impressive in a limited 2020 debut, and lefty Steven Matz was also tendered a contract despite a recent downturn in his production. Noah Syndergaard, meanwhile, will be out until this coming summer due to Tommy John surgery.
Emboldened by new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets are a clear win-now team under the watch of returning president Sandy Alderson and newly hired GM Jared Porter. With James McCann and Trevor May already signed to multi-year deals, further additions are a given. If the plan is indeed to add a second-tier arm and make Springer the focus, then Sugano would join Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and Corey Kluber among the best remaining rotation options on the open market.
To this point in his posting window, Sugano has also been connected to the Red Sox, the Rangers and the Blue Jays. Given his stature in Japan, it’s all but certain that Sugano will receive interest from the majority of pitching-needy clubs who are willing to spend in the wake of this year’s revenue losses. In addition to the money owed to Sugano on a new contract, the team that signs him will owe a release fee to NPB’s Giants. That fee is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars spent thereafter (including option years, incentives, etc.).
DarkSide830
oh God please no
VonPurpleHayes
Really wanted the Phillies to be in on Sugano, but it’s not in the cards.
looiebelongsinthehall
Why is it bad?
DarkSide830
because Im a Phillies fan and I absolutely fear this guy on the Mets.
MetsFan22
Don’t get me wrong. I think he’ll be good. But why do you fear him. He looks like a mid 3 low 4 ERA pitcher next year. I don’t know much about him so I’m probably wrong. Is he better than that?
VonPurpleHayes
@MetsFan22 “Dating back to the 2015 season, Sugano has thrown more than 1000 innings with a 2.19 ERA while averaging better than eight strikeouts and fewer than two walks per nine frames”
He is nasty. That doesn’t always translate stateside, but I think it will. I honestly see more upside and consistency with Sugano than I do with Bauer. He’s also cheaper.
Ma4170
As a Mets fan this is the guy I’ve wanted them to sign… way more upside than odorizzi
lolzmets
So you capitalize the team names but not the sentence? That makes less sense than your hot take.
findingnimmo
So you don’t put a comma with “but”
MetsFan22
I’m not worried about spelling. This isn’t college.
Nervehammer
The comma is not needed as it is not a compound sentence, but I see.
jackkspratt
You have Harper, The Nats have Soto. The Mets have Springer. So far, nothing to worry about.
nick1218
it’s a fuggin message board, get over it
rct
@VonPurpleHayes: I totally agree. It’s kind of surprising how much stock people are placing in Bauer’s 11 starts in 2020 when his final 10 starts in 2019 were abysmal, especially when you look at how much of an outlier his 2020 BABIP was.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Do you really think Springer is going to the Mets?
jvent
As a Mets fan I would give Sugano a deal he’ll come as a fraction of Bauer’s price tag and major leaguer haven’t seen him yet so maybe that’s a good thing, than trade for 1 of Snell/Castillo/Carrasco. After signing Springer hopefully than the Mets can trade Nimmo,Matz and maybe Rosario or Mauricio for 1 of those pitchers and the Reds seem to be looking for a SS.
Larry David's Joe Pepitone Jersey
I don’t think that package would be nearly enough to get Snell or Castillo.
MetsFan22
I doubt the Mets would need to add much more with Mauricio and Nimmo already in the deal
rememberthecoop
Maybe not for Gray but no way you get Castillo with that offer.
VonPurpleHayes
Definitely more than that for Castillo. A young, talented, inexpensive MLB-ready starter? That’s pretty rare to find on the trade market. No offense, but Nimmo and Mauricio won’t get it done.
Larry David's Joe Pepitone Jersey
You’re not getting a cheap, quality SP with 4 seasons of control for 1 prospect and a decent everyday player with a limited skillset.
I can’t imagine the Reds trading for a 2nd-year arb guy like Nimmo anyway, especially when they have a roughly similar and cheaper player on the roster already in Winker.
Ma4170
Nimmo Mauricio ginn could prob get snell but I wouldn’t do that if I were the Mets… I think we’ve seen the best of Snell and I think he’s a 5inn pitcher w injury concerns… for Castillo you have to give three prospects… prob Mauricio Allan and a guy like vientos or wolf
dugmet
Alderson isn’t trading Mauricio. He might trade Nimmo. He might trade Rosario.
BrianInWI
I hope the Mets sign Sugano. Then, I’d offer Mauricio, Allan and J.D. Davis to the Reds for Castillo and Moustakas. Reds might like to get out from Moose’s contract, and he’d be a good fit for the Mets.
MarlinsFanBase
I see it’s dumb ash trade suggestion season.
looiebelongsinthehall
Shocked he would consider coming here on a short term deal. If so, expect the bidding to be ferocious. He’ll get multiple offers and will choose where he wants to go. Could be the west coast to knock off flight hours. Yankees and Red Sox have history with Japanese pitchers as do other clubs so he could have a preference based on who he rooted for growing up.
crshbng
If only it was that simple
rct
Others have pointed out some things about your trade but I would like to add that Matz is worthless as any kind of a trade chip. Way too inconsistent and very injury prone.
alproof
Do NOT trade Mauricio, Allan, Baty, Alvarez! DEFINITELY sign Springer and then trade Nimmo, Matz, Rosario, Gsellman.
baseballpun
I have a theory based on nothing but anecdotal memories that pitchers coming over from foreign leagues will be pretty successful their first year if only because hitters haven’t seen them before. They’ll likely take a step back in subsequent years but you can get some great value for at least a season.
Ma4170
Agreed… simple examples like nomo, matsuzaka, Tanaka, maeda show that they can be very successful year 1, and in some cases it evens out a bit from there
Sryphilz27
Then can someone tell kikuchi? Although, his era did slip from 5.17 in 2019 to 5.39 in 2020.
Bigdj2100
Kikuchi had a 3.30 FIP this year as opposed to a 5.71 last year!
Ma4170
I was laughing bc I knew someone would bring up Kikuchi
LordD99
Tanaka’s best season was his third and he finished last year with a 120 ERA+. Maeda’s best season was 2020.
Ma4170
Some people just have to be argumentative… No, Tanaka’s first was still his best (by most measures.. ERA, FIP, K/bb ratio), but the point was their first seasons were very good… they may have had one or two after but also got knocked around… but the first year for the four I mentioned was impressive and definitely number 2 sp numbers
Brian Bickos
Agreed. Some people just want to devalue others thoughts. There is no real rule for this. I mean the guys you listed aren’t the same pitcher, they’re all Japanese. It’s no secret that most of the Japanese pitchers that come to the MLB have a fastball they can spot and a good offspeed forkball/split. Some throw harder than others and therefore can rely on their fastball more against MLB hitters. I haven’t looked at any stats for this take, but I can say watching baseball for 30 years, there have been very few front-end Japanese starters in the majors for more than two or three years, Most of them are fun to watch though.
IjustloveBaseball
Koji Uehara, Yu Darvish, Hyun Jin Ryu, Hiroki Kuroda, Kazahiro Sasaki, to name a few, had some of their best years after their debut seasons.
Not saying you’re wrong, especially since you said you’re basing it off of anecdotal memories, just furthering the discussion!
Another thing to consider, many of these pitchers shift to the MLB after or right in the middle of their prime years, with arms that have already withstood large workloads.
MrMet33
Sugano will not be a Met. Mid-market teams that need pitching will likely be more aggressive than the Mets would given they can play on other options such as Bauer, etc. Sugano has a team like the Twins or Mariners written all over it. Mets would be better suited by going after the upside of Kluber if they don’t go for Bauer than a guy that doesn’t even average a k/IP in Japan.
Larry David's Joe Pepitone Jersey
I don’t see Kluber as a great fit for the Mets. He’s definitely a bounceback/high reward candidate, but they would be better off signing one of the mid-tier guys who is a bit less of a question mark – even if their ceiling isn’t quite where Kluber’s was pre-injury.
That does depend on who else they sign though. If they do end up with Bauer (which isn’t my prediction) Kluber probably does make more sense.
seamaholic 2
Takes two to tango. Sugano might only be interested in certain cities and certain teams.
royhobbs7
John, I humbly disagree:
Remember where Sugano pitched in Japan. He likes the bright lights!
Additionally, the mid-market teams are not going to outbid the Mets if Sugano is their 1st SP choice..
VonPurpleHayes
Now this is a move. Sugano has potential to surpass Bauer.
lolzmets
No he doesn’t.
VonPurpleHayes
Read the article. YouTube him. He certainly does. It’s a matter of does his success in Japan translate to the US? If so, he’s a top-line starter.
rct
Yes, he does. Bauer is more likely, based on his career stats, to give you slightly better than league-average stats. He has one full season (2018) and 11 starts in 2020 of elite pitching. The rest of his full seasons (five of them) were pretty average. Fans are severely overrating Bauer based on one COVID-shortened season and are not looking at his career numbers.
Bauer is roughly a 2 at best or a 4 at worst but people talk about him like he’s an ace.
davidk1979
Sign him and Odorizzi!
Freddie Morales
yes!!!!
Get rid of the softball players
Mlb teams get your pitchers THIS year.next year’s free agent sp class will be weaker.
larkraxm
Yikes! It’s pretty weak now. Seems like the best plan for 2021 is to try and score ten runs a game off of chumps like Bauer and Odorizzi.
pustule bosey
I could see at least a 2 -3 year deal on the giants since this year the staff is pretty unproven but next year there will be 0 starters on the staff unless there are addl signings and guys from the farm step up. Int’l signings make a lot more sense since you can pay less to carry you through the rebuild
pustule bosey
sorry by next year meant 2022, living in 2021 already
Rangers29
Mets better look into Sugano and then back the f off because HE’S OURS!!!
MetsFan22
We will give you fraizer back dw.
Le Grande Orangerie
Someone has an interest in circulating this story which tells me a Bauer signing with the Mets is imminent and this is just the Mets saying ‘sign Trevor, or we will go elsewhere’.
lolzmets
Another big time off season move by the Mutts- sign a guy that’s used to pitching with a smaller ball!
VonPurpleHayes
The Mets play in a pitcher-friendly park, and they already have a solid top 3. Add Sugano to this rotation and it’s filthy. They don’t need Sugano to be the ace he was in Japan. I don’t like the Mets, so I don’t want them to sign Sugano, but I think it’d be a hell of a move.
jakec77
I am a Mets fan, and they do not have a solid top 3 (I’m not even sure who you are including as the 3rd- Syndergaard?) Citifield is also a bit overrated as a pitchers park.
Mets absolutely need a good starting pitcher. I won’t pretend to know what Sugano will be, but if the Mets do get him, he’s not just a luxury, he will need to perform.
bobtillman
Not interested in Sugano as long as BIG SEXY!!! is available!!!!!
royhobbs7
Unfortunately, the Mets are not signing Bauer. And the reason is simply that he ruins the salary structure in resigning Syndergaard and will likely piss off deGrom who will be pitching for peanuts compared to the $30+ Mil that Bauer will command. I believe that Uncle Stevie is smart enough to want to take care of his own players first and foremost.. And signing Bauer would make it very difficult.
Sugano is the perfect choice. I wondered why it took so long for the Mets to consider him. He might even pitch better than Bauer.
BTW, for those who claim that foreign pitchers (who immigrate to the states) do well their 1st year in MLB and then regress, that dynamic did not befit last year’s performance by Yu Darvish who had by far his best year in MLB after pitching in his 8th season in the BIGS..
royhobbs7
Yes, deGrom will make $33.5 Mil this year.. But who has greater value:
DeGrom or Bauer?
Sryphilz27
Darvish is nothing like most Japanese pitchers, the dude is 6’5”. That’s really not comparable IMO.
Sideline Redwine
It is a pattern, not an absolute truth. One can always find an exception, doesn’t mean the pattern is not substantiated.
rct
“and will likely piss off deGrom who will be pitching for peanuts compared to the $30+ Mil that Bauer will command”
Jacob deGrom has been nothing short of the consummate professional since entering the league. I highly doubt he would engage in petty jealousy like this.
LordD99
He has a preference for the Yankees because of the brand, coming from their counterpart in Japan and the Tanaka connection, but there is no indication the Yankees are shopping in these waters.
burn0820
If it’s in addition to signing let’s say Odorizzi, then absolutely go for it. Otherwise, no way. These Japanese pitchers are always busts.
bobsugar84
What about Lugo? Back to the pen? He is much better there, but the Mets have tons of bullpen arms and only a couple starters. If they give him all offseason to stretch out, I think he could be a decent starter. What do you guys think?
jim stem
I’d like to see Lugo remain on the rotation if, for no other reason, it keeps Matz OUT of their.
I’m not asking for a #1 in all five rotation slots, but at least give us a #3 in 3,4 and 5.
jim stem
Looks like a really solid pick up got any team. I admit I have never seen him pitch, but any pitcher who AVERAGES 7.1 innings pitched per game must be doing something right.
Looking past k numbers, I really like the B.B./9 and whip.
Dorothy_Mantooth
Chaim Bloom needs to get off his butt and sign Sugano immediately! There will still be room to add Kluber as well along with 2 BP arms and a CF. If the Red Sox do this they are back in contention immediately.
Jeff Zanghi
I’m really hoping the Red Sox sign Sugano… I think he’s going to be a legitimate top of the rotation arm and I think he’d be a great fit for the Red Sox as he’s not just a short-term option so it’s not as if they MUST win right away if they sign him — but he will also provide value right away… as well as down the line for several years to come.
PitcherMeRolling
Seems like a solid 2-3 year, 10-12M AAV signing. No tomo
Moneyballer
Sugano needs to join a contender. I think a team like the Twins or the Brewers should give him a look. Minnesota is intriguing here. Maeda could help him adjust to the league and they could make fun of everyone else in their native tounge. They also wouldn’t need to hire another translator. It would be a great fit.
Moneyballer
Sugano needs to join a contender. I think a team like the Twins or the Brewers should give him a look. Minnesota is intriguing here. Maeda could help him adjust to the league and they could make fun of everyone else in their native tounge. They also wouldn’t need to hire another translator. It would be a great fit.
Moneyballer
Sugano needs to join a contender. I think a team like the Twins or the Brewers should give him a look. Minnesota is intriguing here. Maeda could help him adjust to the league and they could make fun of everyone else in their native tounge. They also wouldn’t need to hire another translator. It would be a great fit.
Moneyballer
Sugano needs to join a contender. I think a team like the Twins or the Brewers should give him a look. Minnesota is intriguing here. Maeda could help him adjust to the league and they could make fun of everyone else in their native tounge. They also wouldn’t need to hire another translator. It would be a great fit.
Moneyballer
Sugano needs to join a contender. I think a team like the Twins or the Brewers should give him a look. Minnesota is intriguing here. Maeda could help him adjust to the league and they could make fun of everyone else in their native tounge. They also wouldn’t need to hire another translator. It would be a great fit.
worthington
25m plus fees for a guy who might not be any better than a guy you can sign for 1 yr 5m. Roll the dice, chumps.
Willie Mays Hayes
Kei Igawa comes to QUEENS!!!
NYCPetrovic
I don’t think this is a good time to take a chance on a pitcher with no MLB experience. It could be hit or miss and the Mets can’t afford that. Thor isn’t coming back until June and then he still has to re-adjust to the offense. Aside from that, David Peterson showed some good stats for his debut. However, it was a shortened season I really aren’t sold on numbers from last year. The Mets FO still have work to do.
On a side note – I’m wondering how they will balance two lefties in the rotation. Maybe they send Matz to the bullpen but that was a bad experiment.
stem50
Sugano Never Pitched in the Majors Yet and some of you here are already giving him the Cy Young …………Geez……