Free-agent left-hander James Paxton recently held a showcase with “as many as 20 teams” in attendance, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network. Paxton’s fastball reached 94 mph during the session, Morosi adds.
The 32-year-old Paxton is coming off a difficult season as a member of the Yankees, with whom he totaled just five starts and pitched to a 6.64 ERA/4.37 FIP over 20 1/3 innings. Paxton did post appealing strikeout and walk numbers (11.51 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9), though a fastball that has averaged upward of 95 mph throughout his career clocked in at a disappointing 92.1 in 2020. Paxton, who has dealt with several injuries in the majors, underwent back surgery last February and didn’t pitch beyond Aug. 20 because of a flexor strain. Fortunately, Paxton avoided surgery on his arm, and agent Scott Boras issued encouraging updates on his health in recent weeks.
If Paxton is at 100 percent, it’s easy to see why teams would have interest in him on what’s likely to be a fairly affordable short-term contract. Also a former Mariner, Paxton logged quality numbers from 2013-19 before enduring struggles last season. To this point, Paxton has put up an impressive 3.58 ERA/3.31 FIP with 9.9 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9 across 753 1/3 innings and 136 appearances (all starts).
He stinks and I don’t like him
It’s not that he stinks. He simply can’t stay healthy and there is no way I sign him to anything but an incentive laden short term deal.
Well said
This
I like him possibly. A lot of available pitchers who were good or even fantastic in the past. I like whichever two present the best value. Rather get two for under 8 million each then one for 10 to 15 million. Don’t want to get into a bidding war. I am fine being left with whoever is the least desirable.
I like everyone possibly.
I don’t discriminate. I hate everyone equally.
Chip Chipperson, aka Jay Sherman.
He’s a menace! A vigilante!
Sounds like you strongly desire pictures of Spiderman. Also I have a feeling that the Phils take a flier on a 1 year incentive laden deal here.
Lyle Chip Chipperson. Slam poet.
Why don’t you like him?
fawkin home run, Chip
fawkin buried that sock cucka
Yankees will resign him.
Phillies was my original guess.
God I hope not! That’s our problem…we always sign these washed up pitchers. We got lucky with Wheeler
I like the Phils top 3. After that it gets bad. I’d take a rebound project for 4 or 5. Paxton can rebound if healthy. Phils aren’t going to sign any big FA starters. So I’d roll the dice with Paxton.
Who’s the third spot your referring to? Howard? He’s not proven enough IMO. We’re going to have major issues with both SP and BP again this season. We need to sign a legitimate #3 guy and maybe 2-3 BP arms or we won’t have any luck competing in the division. Paxton won’t be a bad signing as long as we’re not banking on him sliding into the 3 spot
I say he signs with Blue Jays
Gotta be interested right??
I can assure you one thing, the Blue Jays are “interested” in him and any major leaguer who ever existed.
Good for the Blue Jays keeping our off season full of rumors
Jays were my pick, but I’ve been mostly wrong as far as these predictions go.
I picked Rangers for each bounce back starter like Paxton. Tbh, kinda want us to sign him knowing that he can actually pitch rn. (I know he’s not 100 percent, but he can projectile a ball out of his arm… pitching, in other words…)
the Red Sox should look at him if his price isn’t to n high.
His GB% has declined 7 years in a row, IIRC. I think he’d be a disaster at Fenway.
No, they need rotation stability. Paxton is like another Eovaldi.
A lot of teams will take a chance on him if he is healthy. He will have to take an incentive laden contract with all his injury history. Angels seem like a good landing spot.
Slider I just wrote the same thing. Feel sorry for you if we have more in common…
Angels have been going after guys like this (the type that appear to be over the hill) for years now. As an Angel fan, I hope they take a different approach, even if it means unloading some prospects.
I was literally about to comment my prediction of him going to Angels lol but I agree they should aim higher.
A healthy Paxton would slot in really nice behind Ryu and Pearson. Add in Ray and that’s a decent 4 that could get you to the wild card at least
Piggy back Paxton and Ray with Merrtweather and Hatch perhaps Thornton if he starts to pitch better
Gets Stripling into the #5 slot which ain’t too shabby of a 5 , most importantly it gets Roark to long relief and mop up duty with the occasional start due to injury (emphasis on occasional lol)
I’m not opposed to a 1 year huge 30-40 million Bauer contract if hes still on that train
Grab Kim with an overpay to woo him away from a west team and call it an offseason
you were doing well until you added Ray. Ala the gas can.
Ray is garbage.
Paxton hitting 94 is a red flag when he darted 97-98 in October 2019. I was all in on Paxton two months ago because, unlike Ray, had meaningful appearances. But no. At least Tanaka can get outs throwing under 90.
meaningful? he pitched to an ERA near 7.00 last year.
Ray is a high upside guy but the Jays payed waaaaay too much for his services. Shelling out 8 million based on this market and his past two seasons?
I’m with you on Tanaka, I hope the Cubs are able to land him but he would actually be my number one this off season. Don’t get me wrong, Bauer is great but I’m not gambling 30 million on a guy who only sometimes pitches like an ace. I’d rather be in the 13 million range with Tanaka and see what he can do outside of the AL East…. His numbers are a tad worse outside of NY but I don’t imagine that trend would continue, New York is hard on pitchers with that power alley.
Paxton is an intriguing high upside too, I think there are a lot of pitchers that are going to end up being absolute steals for some teams, Paxton, Odorizzi, Tanaka, Walker, Happ….
As previously mentioned, I’m a Cubs fan and I would stay the flip away from Quintana and Lester. Little known fact, neither of those guys throw strikes, now they are losing their reputation and losing the calls off the plate.
The good news is that Paxton only averaged 92 MPH in 2020, so hitting 94MPH consistently during his workout is encouraging as his arm strength isn’t fully built up yet. Sure seems like he could get back to 95 MPH+ this year IF he can stay healthy. That’s a huge IF.
I can’t see Pearson tossing many innings this year given the injury and need to build up his arm strength over 162. Do you?
As a Jays fan, think bigger no? Castillo from the Reds with Moose, sending back some solid talent. Reds want to drop payroll, take some back and get the #2 they need. Then sign a Paxton to really make it work. Jays have a boatload of payroll space, even more next year, and a solid opportunity here to jump on some weakness due to other team owners’ revenue shortages. If not Castillo, then Darvish, Carrasco, Gray … then a second tier guy like Pax. He shouldn’t be the pitching prize imho.
If the Jays thought bigger they would have moved on from Ray rather than overpay him.
He’s put up the similar numbers as Bauer when healthy so he would be a great fit for many teams hopefully Yankees bring him back
I think he’s a solid number 3 or 4 starter and could warrant a pro rated contract based on his innings limit and injury potential. He tends to pitch around 141 innings per year, makes around 26 starts a year. If he would be worth as much as $17.5M if he pitched a full 34 start season and could go an average of 6.335 innings, or, 216 innings a year, that’s $11.425M per season value, but assume he could get so injured he doesn’t actually make it a whole year….
2 years/$20.5M guarantee, with a $500k buyout on an $11M option, with innings pitched based incentives up to $500k a season and an increase on the buyout to $1M, an increase on the option of $1M, would be in order for him. Total contract potential 2 years/$22M or 3 years/$33M.
I also think the Blue Jays would be a good fit for him going forward.
He’s a risk for any contender simply because going into the year, you have to pencil him spending considerable time on the IL. A team that signs him hopes his injuries occur at the beginning of the season so he could be flipped in late July or actually be relied on for down the stretch games. Not my choice unless there’s little risk with an incentive laden short term deal.
He averages a 2.55 WAR per year even with the limited starts/innings amid IL stints. If you look at his record when he is pitching he rarely loses and has a respectable to well above average ERA and Wins-Losses Split.
So that’s the issue.
If he could make 34 starts per year and continuously pitch like when he’s on his A Game, he would be worth as much as 3.38 WAR with a 2.51 ERA, based on his averages. Assuming pitching WAR is still around $8M per 1 WAR, that would give him a market value of as high as $27M per season. But we know he doesn’t ever do that. The fact that he averages 2.5+ WAR when he’s “healthy” and that alone is worth $20M per season, a $10M a year guarantee is statistically about as fair as it gets for Paxton, even in this market.
Paxton will never ever ever pitch to a 2.51 era, idk how your getting your averages, but you can throw out your whole rubric for configuring averages for ERA, I can tell you that… Next thing you’ll tell me, if Shane Spencer hits HRs at the same average he did in 1998, his averaged should pan out to 66.8HRs a year… IDK y people think if any type of math is involved that it automatically equivocates to valid rational discussion.. James Paxton has never pitched to a low CY Young winner type of ERA, and never will… No knock on him, but to float the idea he’ll pitch to 2.51ERA,in any type of scenario, is so disingenuous that a word like bogus might be warranted
You are correct, Sir Say Hey Kid. That was a typo. I definitely meant to write 3.55 ERA and even then I was rounding down from a 3.5875 average over his last four “full” seasons. My bad.
Come back home buddy we still love ya. Mariners need some arms. 2 years 16 million?
As part of a 6-man rotation, where he would get extra rest and wouldn’t be leaned upon heavily?
Yeah, a reunion with Seattle makes a ton of sense. I would argue there’s room for Paxton and Walker. Dunn should be in the bullpen, or Tacoma.
seems like a giants type of move
Giants already committed to a reclamation project in DeScalfani. Only way they add Paxton is on a minor league deal, like with Tyson Ross last year.
Paxton would be a decent get for any team on a one year pillow contract, assuming we aren’t talking a deal worth more than Drew Smyly’s $11 million
White Sox. If he’s the #4 that’s pretty solid. Kopech can work his way back in without being rushed. Cease still has a lot of question marks. Lopez is…ugh, frustrating. Obviously Paxton would fit in any rotation if the price is right. Could be lightning in a bottle.
He’d also give Sox a balanced rotation, having 2 lefties. With Cease, Lopez, and Kopech, he wouldn’t have to start 30 games. Giolito, Keuchel and Lynn are solid 3. Mixing and matching others offers Sox a good rotation. They will score a lot of runs! Add Hendricks to close and we have a solid team!
Good flyballer would be great on south side of Chitown
The Pirates are a perfect fit since he can mentor the young hitters and give advice to them
If Yankees bring back anyone on the Cheap it’s Tanaka. I’d take a chance on Kluber or Lester too
If the Yankees are really going to try to stay below the CBT this year, they aren’t signing any pitcher to deal more than $3M/yr. if they are truly intending to bring back DJL. Bringing DJL back at $20M/yr. only leaves them $5M in ‘cap space’ before they hit the $210M mark. It will be very interesting to see what happens in NY. I really don’t see how they can bring back DJL and stay below the CBT unless they are willing to trade one of their core pieces like Judge, Sanchez, etc.
Looks like the Yankees and their big spending have essentially handcuffed them.
Sort of like what Boston did last year. Difference is the Yankees already have a bullpen. Problems are they tend to burn them out before October and they don’t have a recent championship to point to.
SF Giants, for sure. FB pitchers love it @ Oracle. 2 yrs for $18.5M, with a team option for year 3 @ $12M…
Overpay lol
Word!
It’s not an overpay for a starting pitcher with a half decent track record, even with his innings limits.
Worse starting pitchers are easily getting $8M 1 year deals.
cmon Jays. lets get another prediction right.
I was thinking Jays just because of the maple syrup thing. I hope he leaves the division though I have this feeling he is going to own the Yankees in a different uniform.
A unicorn is more likely to be seen in 2021 than a “healthy Paxton.”
Dude used to hit triple digits with his fastball
The Eagle has landed will be coming back close to home. Need to fill the bleacher section with crazy Canadians. Seattle will be his home for the next couple of years.
Buyer Beware!! Upside is he’ll pitch 14-22 games a year, and look great in 5 starts, and give you 2 big games a year, then when he seems on track to be top notch, he’ll get hurt and start back up again in 6 weeks… But today’s MLB, that’s a 7.5-10 million per year pitcher
Man when this guy is on he is flat out dirty. Just never know when he will be on though….or on the active roster for that much. No more pitchers from Seattle por favor.
I am no Paxton fan. He always blames someone or something else for his problems. Last year he blamed the virus, ignoring the fact that without the virus he still would have started the season on the Injured list.
Blame Canada, as Eric Cartman said about Paxton’s disappointing 2 year stint with Yanks
Maybe he’ll be enticed by the Mariner’s 6-man rotation (for his health) and sign an incentive laden deal with us
Reds take a flyer..
How much are you willing to pay for a flyer with a shaky health history? The Reds are trying to fill out what is now a shallow rotation. If Paxton once again goes down, that goal hasn’t been achieved. Flyers are usually taken by teams that can afford to take a chance on a high-risk, high-reward guy. The question is how much to spend on the risk. If the Reds sign Paxton, they will also have to sign someone else just in case. A difficult proposition for a team in full cost-cutting mode.
Paxton is worth taking a chance on but only if it’s a contender and only if you save him for the playoffs. He can’t get you to the playoffs but he can win a playoff game for you.
This guy has never thrown more than 161 IP in any season. Even on a 1 year deal, you can’t overpay. A mid-sized salary, $5 Million, for 1 year with incentives sounds right.
Dodger, Yankees, White Sox, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Angels sound like good teams.
davemlaw, yup. Teams that can afford the high-risk that comes with Paxton. That $5 million might be a bit much though, even for the teams you mentioned. Recent former all-stars Alex Wood and Jimmy Nelson were in a similar situation last year when they signed for $3 million and $1 million respectively with the Dodgers. That was before this depressed Covid market. I would guess less of a salary for Paxton and higher on incentives. Also, any team that signs him needs to have other capable starters in case Paxton goes down yet again. Of the six teams you mentioned, that might eliminate the Angels since they already have health risks in their rotation and need to get this right.
The Nationals might be a possibility since they are well-armed at the top of the rotation. Paxton can reasonably replicate any of the big three should they go down, meaning they would still have three top starters. If all four stay healthy, then they would be a load to contend with come October. Even having just three of the four would make them a tough out.
I feel like “reached 94” is not a good description if you are Paxton. It implies that he’s topping out below what he used to average.
He averaged 97.3 in 2016 and then 95.9 in 2017 and 2018 during his solid tenure in SEA. Last year for NYY he was averaging 92.8 and it didn’t go well.
I feel like if you’re a team interested you want him to be sitting 95-96, not just touching 94…
Cey Hey is right. He’s not going to the Angels. Halos have had a ton of injuries to starters. They need innings and will need to go after guys with proven track record for high workloads. Paxton doesn’t fit the bill.
Translation: “Welcome to the Angels”.
“Reaching” 94 is a bit discouraging. He lives in the upper 90s when he’s in form. Granted, he’s not at peak, but he’s been preparing for this showcase. I’d expect him to be averaging mid-90s, not peaking at 94.
The article was misleading. We all know of his injury history. Never a serious injury, just weird fluky issues. His back surgery was to remove a cyst that was irritating nerves. It took longer for him to recover as they assumed he’d be ready, but as the virus through lots of things of course he wasn’t able to recover as efficiently or complete as the doctors anticipated and could never get going. When he finally was pitching better he was trying to work through the stiffness that hadn’t cleared. Because of the compensation with the stiffness he wasn’t free flowing in his delivery and strained a muscle in his forearm. He didn’t get any spring training and had the NY pressure to get back ASAP. Last year was an unfortunate wash for what he was hoping to build from his previous strong season with NY.
As for the concern with his fastball at 94 mph during a bullpen… it isn’t uncommon at all for pitchers to not ramp it all the way up to their max during a bullpen session. 94 is a good number as he’s coming back from his injury.
He’s a great one year deal with incentives for a team like Seattle who have young studs in the wings but aren’t ready for the bigs. Signing Paxton gives him a familiar environment that he can get comfortable and confident to show the league he’s still a top pitcher for a bigger contract next year and won’t cost Seattle too much for a “bridge the gap” pitcher to allow them to compete this year with a young team.
In regards to the “misleading statement”, that is specific to the write up about his back surgery. When you hear “back surgery” it is expected to think disc, vertebrae, etc.. Removing a cyst that is irritating is not a serious surgery. His full recovery just took longer than they had hoped. The article didn’t clarify the severity of the surgery.
Can you imagine if every player was actually as good as his agent named Boras says?
Just sign 25 Boras clients and win World Championships every year. It must be that simple.
There are a lot of big numbers being thrown around on here for a pitcher with a history of injuries (2y/10m aav, etc.). I wouldn’t consider Paxton for any more than 1 year/5m with a bunch of innings incentives that could approach 10m if he stays healthy and performs well. I would add a club option for another year. That’s it.
Hyun Jin Ryu only averaged 23 starts a year from 2017-19. The Big Maple averaged 27 starts over the same period, has no structural damage in his arm, and he is two years younger than Ryu.
True but Paxton’s platform year v. Ryu’s covers the discrepancy in term and value. There’s a chance Paxton signs a two year deal and puts up a typical season and then has a stellar year and then would be in line for a Ryu-type payday.
Problem with Paxton is that even though his fastball was sitting around 95mph his spin rate was not as good so his fastball was very flat.
Don’t be surprised if he signs with the Orioles. I do think this will happen and he will have a bounce back year and be traded for some prospects. Again don’t be surprised.
Paxton is not signing for a dime below $8M/yr and even that may be too low. He’ll hold out until he gets the money he wants. Perhaps he signs a 1 year deal for $8M base and incentives that can bring it up to $10-$12M based on IP. And then a $12M+ vesting option as well. Even with his injury history, he’s worth as least as much as what Mike Minor was paid by KC and probably a lot more.
If his agent calls just block the number
I think reaching 94-mph in a late December bullpen session is actually a super ENCOURAGING sign for the Big Maple, especially since his arm wasn’t the issue…it’s his Back! I think signing with TOR would be cool(I mean c’mon, Big Maple in Canada would be pretty cool, he already has one no-no there btw) or a pit-stop back in Seattle makes sense to show you’re healthy in a comfortable environment(like Tai Walker did) and then get dealt to a contender at the deadline before calling up Gilbert and Co.
I dig your take on him, no adrenaline 94 December BP is good to see, obviously how he recovers from a weekly routine is the biggest issue (back) and as much as I hate Toronto fans coming into Seattle with discount tickets (another story) I don’t hate Canadians (their just too nice of people c’mon) it’s always nice to see a home coming-even if his original home is much much closer to seattle (langley) so if not Toronto, would welcome him back with open arms in Seattle as a flier. And who knows, never say no to more pitching…..
I dig your take on him, no adrenaline 94 December BP is good to see, obviously how he recovers from a weekly routine is the biggest issue (back) and as much as I hate Toronto fans coming into Seattle with discount tickets (another story) I don’t hate Canadians (their just too nice of people c’mon) it’s always nice to see a home coming-even if his original home is much much closer to seattle (langley) so if not Toronto, would welcome him back with open arms in Seattle as a flier. And who knows, never say no to more pitching…..
his arm wasn’t the issue…it’s his Back! I
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Shouldn’t the conclusion be just the opposite? If he had an arm injury, and was back to 94, it suggests that the arm is no longer a problem.
If the back is the issue, you might be able to hit 94, but go home in pain.
He’s 32, has 57 career wins, has never pitched more than 160 innings, has trended in the wrong direction for 3 straight years and coming off multiple injuries, yet 20 teams are still very interested. Pretty amazing.
Teams think they can buy low on potential.
Jaime Moyer had 59 wins through his age 32 season and wound up winning 210 more games from age 33 on. Not saying Paxton will have half the succes as Moyer but its not too late for him.
Might be time to transition to a reliever though.
If you had 20-30 examples of folks blossoming after 32, it would be meaningful. All Moyer does is to suggest that something is not impossible. But that is still way short of suggesting that something is likely. Just because someone busted pocket aces with a 7-2 offsuit, doesn’t mean it is a good investment.
Back to Seattle?