The Padres and Royals are among the teams showing interest in free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets the same, adding that the Padres “are trying” to bring Profar back to the organization. It’s sensible that the Padres want him back; he was solid there in 2020 and GM A.J. Preller was an assistant GM with the Rangers during Profar’s developmental years. Royals GM Dayton Moore recently expressed interest in a left-handed bat who can handle third base or the outfield, and the switch-hitting Profar fits that mold.
Profar’s end-of-season numbers certainly look appealing. The 27-year-old (28 in February) slashed .278/.343/.428 with seven homers, six doubles and seven steals through 202 plate appearances, adding in a career-low 13.9 percent strikeout rate. It’s the second time in three seasons that Profar rated as an above-average hitter per both OPS+ and wRC+.
That said, there’s also reason for some caution with regard to Profar’s production. Things can change quickly in a 60-game, 200-plate appearance sample, and that was certainly the case in this instance. Through the first 30 games and 111 plate appearances of the 2020 season, Profar posted a .181/.291/.319 slash with four home runs and one double. He had some miserable batted-ball luck in that time (.171 BABIP), but Profar’s season exemplifies the difficulty of how to evaluate players coming off this year’s 60-game slate; for half the year he was among the worst hitters in MLB, and for his final 91 plate appearances he was among the game’s best (albeit with a whopping .423 BABIP in that time as the pendulum swung the other direction).
Profar is lacking in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but his low strikeout rate and a passable walk rate still lead metrics like Statcast’s expected batting average (xBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) to peg him as a slightly above-average hitter based on the quality and regularity of contact made.
Defensively, Profar has been moved off second base twice in the past two seasons — first in Oakland and then in San Diego (although the move in San Diego was perhaps more about Jake Cronenworth’s emergence as it was Profar’s struggles). Profar developed a case of the yips while serving as Oakland’s regular second baseman early in 2019, at one point making eight errors in a span of 25 games. He righted the ship but was still dinged hard by defensive metrics: -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -5 Outs Above Average. His marks in 2020 were better, and it’s only fair to point out that those same metrics suggest Profar was anywhere from a passable to very good left fielder for the Padres in 2020.
Taken in totality, Profar’s last three seasons have produced a league-average hitter who is capable of playing three infield positions, but perhaps none of them especially well, with an encouraging but small sample of work in left field. He’s an efficient base stealer (26-for-28) but by no means a burner, as Statcast puts his average sprint speed right around the 50th percentile throughout the league. He’s toward the bottom of the league in hard contact but toward the top of the league in terms of putting the ball in play.
Profar is a useful player as is, but the allure of his former prospect status and his youth surely hold appeal to other clubs. He’ll play all of next season at 28, and while it was close to a decade ago, Profar was the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the 2013 season, topping the lists from Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus alike. He’s had two shoulder surgeries since that time, however, which effectively cost him two full years of development. He was also quite arguably rushed to the Majors in the first place, debuting as a 19-year-old for a win-now Rangers club back in 2012.
There’s still an air of upside surrounding Profar because of that status and his age, even if his batted-ball profile isn’t a particularly encouraging one. The question for Profar may be one of whether to take a one-year deal in hopes of a cashing in on a strong 2021 season or taking a multi-year pact at an annual value that would look like a bargain if he does indeed elevate his game in 2021. Those decisions will be weighed by his camp as he continues to field offers, although the Royals have been surprisingly aggressive with players they identify as targets, which would seemingly bode well for Profar’s market.
FredMcGriff for the HOF
For being the top prospect in baseball at one time Profar hasn’t really done much.
BovineCrab
I couldn’t figure out where this guy was gonna go on the Free Agent Prediction Contest so for some reason I picked the Yankees. I guess that’s not gonna happen. So far I only have Drew Smyly, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray correct. I sent in my ballot on the first day I could before Gausman, Stroman and Ray signed. Do those votes even count for me? I didn’t get to vote on Robbie Grossman, Brett Gardner or Brad Miller because I never adjusted my ballot so I feel like Gausman, Stroman and Ray should count for me. They do, right?
keysox
No
its_happening
Ray should.
JoeBrady
Brought up too soon, plus injuries. The number of players that contribute at age 19-20 is incredibly small. Mostly all you do is give on-the-job training, eating up service years, and ultimately, giving away their prime years.
ba2929
Happens all the time. Predicting baseball success is almost as hard as winning the lottery. Probably the hardest sport to predict success in for prospects since you get them so early and high school/college is so far from MLB talent it’s unbelievable.
CNichols
He’s also not a complete bust, he’s been in the bigs since 2012 even though injuries robbed him of all of 2014 and 2015. He’s useful enough as a utility guy that he’s probably only like halfway through his career and will continue to bounce around into his mid-thirties. So while he didn’t turn into a yearly MVP candidate, he’s probably going to have a 10+ year MLB career.
There are past #1 prospects who didn’t end up being studs, like Rick Ankiel, Matt Wieters, Delmon Young etc.. Like you said, it happens from time to time, not everyone ends up like Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. But the fact that he’s going to carve out a decently long MLB career says something about the ranking on him.
brodie-bruce
hey i learned something new especially being a lifelong cards fan i didn’t know ankiel was a #1 prospect. thou in ankiel defense he wouldn’t be on this list until the nlds his rookie season. between what was going on in his personal life and the psi of the playoffs he just wasn’t the same unless he was up against randy johnson. i’m just glad he was talented enough to go from a sp to a decent everyday option in cf.
Prospectnvstr
Fred: Considering a couple of the facts in the article: (1) He was rushed to the show at 19 yrs old. Truly before he was ready. (2) He’s lost about 2 yrs of development due to shoulder injuries. He’s turning 28 this winter. Considering the overall situation, is it really surprising that he hasn’t lived up to the hype/expectations that have been placed on him?
DrDan75
The “top prospect in baseball,” whoever that is at any given time, is always under intense pressure. If Profar had come up as just another really good prospect in the Yankees or Dodgers organization, his future probably would have been a lot different.
SDHotDawg
Seriously? You’re going to blame “pressure” for his lack of success? That’s as lame as the Twinkie Defense.
towinagain
This is a must Padres.
towinagain
Unless it’s a trade for Gallo or some crazy off the wall Puig acquisition, then Profar is a must.
That being said Preller thinks outside the box, so who knows Ozuna could be in play 🙂
Deleted_User
With Preller, there is no box. He’s box deficient. He’s olly olly boxen free.
Deleted_User
A must? Are you for real? The dude exceeded expectations in 2020 and would probably be worth bringing back at the right price. But he’s not even close to irreplaceable.
mrpadre19
But the Padres have a very young and unproven bench.
They need a versatile utility player with experience.
Plus,Profar was a huge part of the team chemistry last season.
Great attitude guy.
Deleted_User
“Great attitude guy.”
Says who?
padreforlife
“Attitude guy”
Gwynning
“Great attitude guy” according to the ENTIRE clubhouse. At the right price, Profar would be a welcome addition back! C’mon, man… there aren’t any “clubhouse cancers” in town, dude. Give it a rest. I hope we grab Jurickson for a bench role, 100%.
Deleted_User
So they told you this?
Gwynning
Your posts read more and more like you write for TMZ. Yes.
Deleted_User
What position you play bro?
SDHotDawg
Profar is mostly useful as a 4th outfielder. But since he’s Preller’s latest man-crush, you can bet he’ll way overpay.
Gwynning
You’re probably right! Haha- Happy Holidays!
angt222
Probably would get offered more playing time with KC. I think that’s where he goes.
Deleted_User
It’ll be the highest bidder. But generally that is also the team that intends to give him the most PT.
libertyfighter
He really enjoyed his time with San Diego and fit in well with his teammates. I think he gets a 2 year deal and stays with San Diego.
Deleted_User
LOL
padreforlife
2 years stop. He has noodle for arm not OF
Royalsfan12
Don’t need him
Hosmer for HOF
He’s a surprisingly different player from how he started in this league is the perfect super utility for this team. At the end of the day I see him playing better but he’s not enough to challenge the dodgers in the playoffs this year. Save the $8M/year and put it towards Bauer or.
CNichols
I view Profar as a nice to have utility option, but he’s by no means necessary for the Padres. SD really needs another SP and a closer and those should be higher priorities than position player depth.
If they only have like $10-20M (just a guess) that they can add to payroll this offseason, I am going to start to feel a bit worried if they give Profar like 6 to 8 million dollars and then still need to add pitching.
I’d rather they spend the limited payroll space that they have on re-upping Trevor Rosenthal plus like a Cole Hamels or John Lester type LHP starter and then with whatever is left they can look to add to the bench.
Gwynning
25m+ to work with this offseason, per Seidler. And yes please on Rosie first, SP soon and maybe Profar after that.
SCHWING and A Miss
Removing comments?, c’mon now…lame!
lolzmets
Yes. Because you are that important.
SCHWING and A Miss
Your mom seems to think so
lolzmets
Now reply with something that actually IS funny.
JoeBrady
LOL! And you wonder why your comments are always removed?
bbatardo
He fits in so well with the Padres roster I hope they re-sign him. He might not have a starting job, but I could see him playing every game still.
Deleted_User
Easily replaceable
Gwynning
You keep saying that, so list the replacements you’d like to see. Let’s say they gotta be able to play some OF and IF to qualify for this discussion. Profar can be got for 2y/10-12m I think, so let’s keep that in mind, too.
Deleted_User
“Let’s say they gotta be able to play some OF and IF to qualify for this discussion.”
You realize that qualifier eliminates Profar, right?
SDHotDawg
“List the replacements” is a pretty lame rebuttal. Profar is very ordinary, and as such, I agree that he is very replaceable. In fact, there’s a strong argument that Profar is even less than “ordinary” (average).
Gwynning
Fair enough, let me rephrase by saying “who would you like to see instead?” I figured the rest of my post made that clear, my mistake. Joc? Puig?
SDHotDawg
I’d start with Eddie Rosario or Jonathan Villar. Enrique Hernandez fits the bill, especially with his versatility. There are literally a dozen FA outfielders available that are as good or better, and wouldn’t cost as much as Profar thinks he’s going to get.
cygnus2112
Based on scope of contract, age, profile, versatility, etc, Profar is not only the most realistic & best target this off-season for KC, but also the next couple free agent offseason targets!
Even if GMDM has to go 5 years/32.5-35 mil, so be it cause in that fifth & final year he’ll still only be 31 at the beginning of that last year of contractual obligation.
Get er’ done Royals!
CNichols
There is no way he’s going to command that type of deal.
5Y/$32.5M is maybe right about the AAV, $6.5M per season seems reasonable, however it shouldn’t take a 5 year offer to sign him. He’s like a fringe starter/utility piece, that probably translates to 1 or 2 years on a deal.
Cap & Crunch
You can probably have him for 3/21 no need to extend him that far
Jacobpaul81
I’d venture somewhere in the 3/18-20 depending on other offers. Which I doubt there will be many. Most of the league profiles him as an infielder. Moore could quickly lock him up with 3 /21 cause that’s more than he’ll get anywhere else.
Of course – I like him for KC – so that all but guarantees Moore won’t sign him.
Besides – 3 years is not even in Dayton Moore’s plans – he’s gotta win in 2021 or Sherman is canning him – Which should have already happened. That’s why he’s handed out 2/18 deal to a 35 year old first baseman and a 2/18 deal to a 33 year pitcher – he’s gotta win in 2021 – even if that means not stockpiling guys with time for 2022-2023.
JoeBrady
Royals GM Dayton Moore recently expressed interest in a left-handed bat who can handle third base or the outfield, and the switch-hitting Profar fits that mold.
Profar developed a case of the yips while serving as Oakland’s regular second baseman early in 2019, at one point making eight errors in a span of 25 games. He righted the ship but was still dinged hard by defensive metrics: -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -5 Outs Above Average.
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I’m not sure how the author came to the conclusion that Profar can both handle 3B, and then kind of shred his defensive abilities. I’d also add that Profar has made 74 career starts at 3B, in 6 years, and none on the past 2 years.
I wouldn’t put any faith in his ability handle 3B.
jbeerj
This is why I backed off him to hold down 3B in Milwaukee.
Jacobpaul81
Profar would primarily play LF for the Royals. His numbers in 74 games in the spot are actually pretty solid.. He could back-up 3rd base if he must – but Royals have Dozier starting there going forward.
Royalsfan12
I don’t get why the Royals all of a sudden think they can be competitive. There are already three teams ahead of them in the AL Central and it’s not even close. The offensive is outright terrible and hasn’t shown much improvement. Pitching is getting there but still needs work. Just doesn’t make sense to start now.
solaris602
They MIGHT have an outside shot at leapfrogging CLE if everything breaks just right, but anyone who believes they are in the same stratosphere as MIN and CHW is seriously delusional. I’d continue with the rebuild at least until those 2 teams begin to decline in a few years.
Prospectnvstr
Royalsfan12: If you’re a true Royals fan, you should be excited with KC’s efforts to improve the team. They have a very possible sneaky good rotation w Singer & Bubic to go along with the vet’s. They need to improve their position players and hopefully their up & coming prospects are able to help by 2022.
Royalsfan12
I want the team to improve but they can’t rush anything. Just look what happened with Cincinnati.
cygnus2112
What long term contracts have they issued that makes you draw that comparison?
DarkSide830
they already have Keller as a good bet to do well next year, with Bubic, Singer, and Minor all probably likely to have good seasons. the lineup isnt amazing but arguably has just as many weaknesses as any in the division save CHW. (MIN should pass them as well, but with Cruz’s status TBD and several guys with injury issues its not a given, especially if KC signs another strong bat, say Springer) its not exactly a soft division, but every team has its holes. even CHW could be undone if the wrong guy gets injured. (looking at Lynn or Keuchel, who have a history)
Royalsfan12
Keller is inconsistent, Bubic and Singer need more development (especially Bubic), how do other teams have more weaknesses than the Royals? The only players that can hit are Perez, Merrifield, and Santana (and judging by Santana’s age who knows how long that’s gonna last). The Royals have absolutely zero chance of signing Springer (there was just an article about that). Even if Chicago and Minnesota get injuries, that doesn’t make KC immune to injuries. Perez was out for the whole season in both 2018 and 2019. Keller was out for most of 2020. Even if a miracle happens and the Royals somehow make the playoffs, they won’t last long. I’m unhappy with this because rushing the rebuild will just lead to one or two years of trying to compete and then a ten year rebuild.
KC Bat Boy
Keller is inconsistent? Keller was out most of 2020? Do you watch the games? Kid had a 2 ERA and I don’t think he missed a start unless it was 1 for covid. Springer is a no go, that is silly. Dozier and Mondi you left off as good hitters, I truly think you didn’t watch many games.
cygnus2112
It’s like dude was watching a different Royals team with players of the same name…
CJML
The central isn’t good and many of their young guys made some big strides last year. Right now the white Sox are the only team that arguably improved from last year and they lost a key player in McCann. If the royals can bolster that lineup they could do some damage.
its_happening
Is acquiring Profar signalling they are competing? Would’ve thought the opposite if they are interested.
Jacobpaul81
The Royals played well in 2020. They struggled against the White Sox going 1-9… but they split with Cleveland and Minnesota (5-5) and outplayed Detroit 6-4. That’s a good base. Given 40 of our 60 games were against our own division, winning those divisional games were worth 66.6%. In a normal season, that’s only 39.5% -That’s a large differeniation – that takes weight off the White Sox and places it in inter-league and inter-division play. The Royals performed well in both (small sample size) – only having losing records to the Cubs (1-3) and the Brewers (0-3). The Cubs could have easily been a split.
When we look at the offense, the biggest holes were Gordon, Lopez, Phillips, and Starling. Gordon, Philips are gone, Starling is back in the minors – leaving only Lopez.
To fill those holes, they signed Carlos Santana (he’s an OBP beast even if he can’t hit – I’m still not happy about the signing) and both Franchy Cordero and Edward Olivares will get theirs shots to replace Philips / Starling. The Royals also signed Mike Taylor (head-scratcher). They could do with an everyday OF bat – which is why Jurickson Profar is on the radar. I suspect Soler will be traded mid-season – shifting the diamond around some – so they’ll need that extra bat in the OF.
But I think they can compete for 2-3 spot in AL Central – which should be enough for the playoffs – especially if they expand it again – which is what the owners want.
bobtillman
Profar stinks. Brutal in the IF, plays LF like Willie Horton (how’s that, Tiger fans?). You can find switch hitting utility players (some of whom can actually PLAY several positions) who can run into some hits over 4 weeks. And they’ll cost minimum wage.
CalcetinesBlancos
There are teams willing to sign this guy for multiple years?
davemlaw
Yankees make a lot of sense but so do a lot of teams. He’ll go to the highest bidder and that could easily be a 3/$24M just because of his versatility.
mlbnyyfan
Yankees do make sense as possible upgrade from Wade. However Yankees only interested in players signing a minor league deal.
Texas Outlaw
Profar was rushed as a teen and then blasted for not being a stud (at least by local media) from his first at bat. I hope he puts it altogether in his age 27 season and rocks the world.
Mrtwotone
Sort of like Dansby Swanson. Amazing prospect rating but disappointed the first couple of years. It seems like both players are starting to reach their potential though. People forget that players need time to develop at the big league level and expect a superstar right off the bat. Not everybody can pull a Tatis, Acuna, or Soto and be amazing right of the start
jay13
Let him walk Dayton, let him walk.
Rsox
I wouldn’t mind Bloom taking a flier on Profar. We need help at 2B, and Profar can also spell Devers and Bogaerts while also playing LF against lefties
El Chupacabra
Two years to KC plus a mutual option for the 3rd year. Get ‘er done, Dayton.
DrDan75
Preller should sign him and trade him straight up for Salvador Perez. Problem solved. ;D
jimthegoat
Can’t trade players you just signed until June I believe
lolzmets
You should look it up before you comment then it wouldn’t be a matter of belief.
jimthegoat
I knew there was a rule about not trading players you just signed until x day but I didn’t remember what x day was. But just for you, I did look it up. Players who sign major league contracts in free agency during the offseason can not be traded until the next June 15th. The rule does not, however, apply to players who sign extensions. If the Padres were to sign Profar at this point, it would be considered a free agent contract rather than an extension.
stymeedone
These are hardly the only teams that may sign him. His versatility and youth, along with being affordable, make him a target for most teams.
KC Bat Boy
I would welcome him to KC. He plays LF hits in the 7 or 8 spot. On base guy who can bunt and move guys over. Switch hitter so you don’t need to use a bench player later in the game. I look at a 2 year deal for $10 with a club option for a 3rd year.
tschdery
I’ll never forget how much of a debacle this guy was with the Rangers
sdpadsfan11
I’d rather the Padres go after Villar. He is better in every facet of the game than Profar. Profar is not a versatile player.
VegasSDfan
The Padres have no depth at the Major league level for the outfield.
Rsox
Which is incredible considering not too long ago they were like seven or eight deep in ML ready Outfielders
sdpadsfan11
I was really disappointed that the Padres traded Edward Oliveras. He looked like a long term piece as a versatile player. I might be a little bit bias because of who the Padres traded for him (Solarte).
KC Bat Boy
We have two of you Of from last year in Olivares (he hit pretty well and seems to be a good athlete) and Franchy, but he got hurt with seems to be his M.O. Wish we could get Strahm back from you guys, we got screwed on that trade.
padreforlife
Solarte lol Padre fan favorite