In a move that will surprise no one, Trevor Bauer will reject the Reds’ qualifying offer, agent Rachel Luba announced on Twitter. There was never any doubt that Bauer, a Cy Young finalist in the National League, would turn down the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. By rejecting it, he’ll now be tied to draft pick compensation this winter, although that seems unlikely to stand in the way of him securing a considerably more lucrative contract.
Bauer, 30 in January, led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79), and he paced all of Major League Baseball with two shutouts and a paltry 5.1 hits per nine innings pitched. The former No. 3 overall draft pick was every bit the ace that Cincinnati hoped he’d be when acquiring him prior to the 2019 trade deadline, largely putting his rough two-month showing with the 2019 Reds in the rearview mirror.
It was the second Cy Young-caliber season for Bauer in three years, as he also turned in 175 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with the 2018 Indians. Over the past three seasons combined, Bauer has worked 461 1/3 innings with a combined 3.18 ERA and 3.38 FIP in addition to averages of 11.2 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched.
Because Bauer rejected the qualifying offer, any club that signs him will now take a hit in next year’s draft. A team that paid the luxury tax (e.g. the Yankees) would surrender its second- and fifth-highest selections to sign Bauer. They’d also see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Clubs that receive revenue-sharing in a typical season and do not exceed the tax threshold are “only” required to sign their third-highest selection to sign a qualified free agent. Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing and stay under the luxury barrier are penalized by forfeiting their second-highest pick and seeing their international pool reduced by $500K.
As for the Reds, they’ll be a very interested onlooker with regard to Bauer’s contract. The right-hander made it known for years that he did not ever plan to sign a multi-year deal, instead maxing out his earnings on a perpetual series of one-year pacts. The shortened nature of the term would, in theory, allow for greater earning potential so long as Bauer remained healthy and pitched well; teams are willing to pay a higher annual rate in order to avoid long-term risk. Recently, however, both Bauer and Luba have indicated that he’ll consider long-term deals in free agency as well.
That’s of particular importance for the Reds, as they’d receive a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft should Bauer sign elsewhere — but only if his total guarantee is greater than $50MM. If Bauer goes the one-year route, he’ll surely fall shy of that threshold, meaning the Reds would only be entitled to a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft. Essentially, it’s a difference of roughly 45 spots in the draft order, as well as the considerably greater slot value that is associated with the higher of the two selections.
bot
Reds need to offer 1 year for 40 mil. That’ll make him highest paid player in baseball next year- fit nicely w his ego
angt222
I think CIN can afford it for a year.
djulio4u
He pitches 3 x’s in 2 weeks, not even close to being worth 40
Oddvark
What if he gives you 40 starts in a season? Is he worth $1M/start, with no long-term commitment/risk for future years?
Daver520
NOBODY is worth THAT kind of money !
Daver520
Nobody makes 40 starts in a Season lol !!!!!
oldmansteve
Yes, but he affects ~30 ABs every start while a position player only affects like 8-10.
3 starts x 30 ABs = 100 ABs every 2 weeks for a pitcher.
12 starts x ~9 ABs = 108 ABs every 2 weeks for a hitter.
Can we stop this whole “pItChErS dOnT eVeN pLaY EvErY dAy” nonsense?
Geebs
lol we have better ways of weighing a players contribution so who cares about this weird plate comparison
averagejoe15
Trout is worth double that over 1 year so…yea players are worth that.
ChiSox_Fan
Wilbur Wood could.start 40
Pitched both ends of double header once.
Unfortunately, he lost those 2.
5 consecutive years of 40+ starts! Had 49 and 48 in two of those years. .
JoeBrady
I’ve been saying this forever. No one ever believes me, but the amount of ABs every single hitter has, in total, is exactly the number of ABs that every single pitcher has, in total.
There is other stuff that counts, like position scarcity, the ability to be an ace in the playoffs, etc., but the number has to be the same on both sides.
For example, Semien led the AL in PAs with 747. Lynn led the league in batters faced with 875.
koz16
Bauer does a lot of testing and research on his biochemistry and recovery. What he has discovered is that his peak performance and strength comes pitching even fourth day and not every fifth day.
He has also stated that the ability to pitch every fourth day will be one of the factors in where he signs.
baycommuter 2
I can hear Don Drysdale ranting about the five-man rotation. He felt the same way.
seth3120
I don’t believe walks count as AB’s so no that’s incorrect
R Mak
Trevor’s rotation on his offspeed pitch
is clocked as the fastest in MLB..
Add that to his 98 mph fastball,
makes him a legit ACE pitcher
on any pitching staff he chooses to join.
The reason he does not want
a long term contract is to not be on a team
that is tanking, a losing team during a long term contract.
that is why he wants a one year contract only
he can leave the team to another team
that is in contention to win.
He will do one year contracts until he retires.
This is also good for the any team
as to not be bind to a contract
if he has a career ending injury.
youtube.com/watch?v=rM5KRx0jMdE
DarkSide830
look, i know projecting single season numbers vs numbers over a multi year contract can give you a big number for just the 1st year value wise, but Bauer isnt getting 40 a year.
Chief Two Hands
I think it would be more accurate to say the Reds would likely have to pay something like 40 mil to get Bauer to stay in Cincinnati, but he certainly is not worth that kind of money.
ctrenkamp
Hard pass.
bot
Y’all are fans of quality baseball franchises and don’t understand the tangibles….Free agents shun Cincinnati and, in general, don’t want to come there. They offered Dallas Kuechel 10s of millions more than the next highest bidder his first time at FA; same w Didi last season, only way castellanos would sign is w an opt out after every season and moose was to pay him 2x more than projected he’d make.
So if reds are serious about retaining Bauer; the price would be 1 year at 40 million. He’d prob take it !
Ggg$$$ 2
Lmfao 40 mil for one year. Please what ever ur smoking please send to me.
seth3120
Even at one year 40 million is insanity. Any other year the Reds miss the playoffs. You pay 40m to him and the best you could hope for is a similar outcome. That’s insane. I’d rather pay him a lower aav and stretch it out a bit. Let’s not forget if fans are allowed it’s not like they’ll be full capacity for awhile. They are feeling the strain too and 40m for one pitcher? No way
fan5
Let’s not forget that Bauer’s pitching was basically inconsistent trash for the Reds in 2019 with a 6.39 ERA and that 2020 was an abbreviated season. He is a 3.90 career ERA pitcher, though.
BaseballWizard
Funny thing is he actually does have to wait for the offer to expire. There is no mechanism to “reject” the offer ahead of time. You “reject” the offer by not accepting it by the deadline.
But good for he and his agent for drumming up another headline, I guess.
angt222
True. I remember when Cuddyer signed with the Mets in the 2014 offseason, his accepting a 2 yr contract with the Mets meant he essentially ‘rejected’ the QO from COL.
jaysfansince1977
He does not need to wait for the offer to expire!, he can say no from the point the offer is extended until the deadline, there is no restriction on when the player can decline the offer it just needs to be done before the deadline
BaseballWizard
From the CBA –
“A Qualified Free Agent may accept a Qualifying Offer until the
tenth day following the conclusion of the Quiet Period (“Acceptance Period”). The Players Association shall provide the LRD with
a list of the Qualified Free Agents who have accepted the Qualifying Offer by 5 P.M. Eastern Time of the final day of the Acceptance
Period. Any Qualified Free Agent whose name is not included on
the list provided by the Players Association to the LRD will be
deemed to have rejected the Qualifying Offer”
FredMcGriff for the HOF
He’s not worth it. I don’t want the egomaniac on my favorite team. Which isn’t the Reds btw.
24TheKid
Congrats
SalaryCapMyth
You don’t need to protest so hard because Bauer probably won’t end up on your team.
titanic struggle
I didn’t want him in Cincinnati this year either after last years poor showing. Gotta say, I manned up and ate my words to my friends after the year he had. Too bad it was shortened, he could have possibly put up a mindblowing season. This guy’s a team player too…much respect for him now!
24TheKid
Looks like once you pay attention to who Trevor Bauer actually is, you end up liking him.
koz16
If you watch his videos on YouTube you learn he’s interesting and a good guy, especially with fans.
mcmillankmm
Will anyone take it? Stroman/Gausman?
hyraxwithaflamethrower
I think Gausman yes, not positive on Stroman.
Rangers29
Bauer: ” HAHAHAHHAHAHAHA… no”
MetsFan22
I’ve heard Bauer and the Mets connect a lot. Hopefully it’s true and we are talking to his agent. Degrom Bauer Syndergaard and stroman (if he accepts QO) in the playoffs???? Sign me up.
dawgpound95
Doyers!!!
angelsfan4life
Closer is a bigger need for the Brooklyn Dodgers. Considering that they have,
Kershaw
Bueller
Price
Urias
May
Grey
Are all options for the starting rotation. Jensen is absolute garbage.
Don’t get me wrong, I doubt that Angels will be able to sign him. But the Dodgers need to try to lock up Seagar as well.
averagejoe15
Adding Bauer would just push another good arm to the pen which they aren’t afraid to do.
VonPurpleHayes
I expect a huge overpay. Perhaps by the Mets, as they can afford it.
Bill M
Definitely going to be overpaid by some one. Could be the Mets. Could be the Dodgers. Could be any of about a dozen teams.
DarkSide830
i dont think the Dodgers have enough of a need at SP for them to want to shell out that much
hyraxwithaflamethrower
Agreed. They’re testing the adage that you can never have too much pitching.
quin14
He will pitch for the LA Dodgers next year with AAV of 32-35 million if he signs a multi year contract.
DarkSide830
he’s not getting that much on a multi year deal with his track record. maybe he gets that for one year, but not more then 1.
TMQ
He isn’t pitching for the Dodgers. He wants to pitch on 4 days rest. Their rotation is too deep for that to happen happen IMO
bestno5
It’s a one year deal give him $25M and then do it again next year. He said he wants to bet on himself. He pitched for them on 2 days rest at the end of the season. I don’t think his ego gets in the way of being a good teammate
Peart of the game
I’m thinking that Bauer could in theory have a contract like this: year 1: $30 million. Years 2-5 $27.5 million, $25 million, $22.5 million, $20 million respectively with a player opt out for each of those four years. So in theory, he could opt out and become a free agent again if he feels he can do better in free agency than what is owed on the remainder of his contract.
LordD99
Whatever contract he takes, it would be wise to take less in year one figuring part of the salary will be prorated.
SalaryCapMyth
You know, it very well could be the time for the Mets to shine. After reading all that I did concerning Cohen, I didn’t think there would be any really big splashes his first year in but maybe that’s wrong. If you have even a modest amount of money to spend, this is a buyer’s market and I’m sure if I know this than so does Cohen. He may never find talent on the FA market as cheap as it will be this offseason.
You might find a JTR, Bauer or someone of that ilk under the Christmas tree but I think you will see a lot of good players but not great because you will find that it’s their market that gets hit the hardest. This obviously would include relievers. In the middle of next season, don’t be surprised is the Mets have the best bullpen in baseball, among other things.
DarkSide830
im lean towards Cohen spending less then some think, but I bet you still get someone in that top tier and perhaps another good player. Bauer’s the candidate that stands out for me, but i dont even think someone like DJ could be out of the question if you wanted to juggle the roster around a bit. in fact, DJ makes sense if you want to include a Rosario, Gimenez, or Davis in a package for Contreras.
Deleted_User
Shocker
titanic struggle
The entire universe does not revolve around New York (maybe technically), I can see a team like Toronto with a strong young core making him a strong 3-4 year deal, or even going the one year route…
MafiaBass
Good point. They could sign him to a contract that expires as it becomes time to extend their homegrown talent.
jmag1976
so overrated and ego driven110208jm?
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I think he deserves to technically break the single season salary record, which would be $46M, topping Strasburg’s $45M year on his contract, get a massive signing bonus to account for the possible continued deflated salaries next season even with 162 games planned and then drop it down to a more reasonable price per season on a multi year deal, in case he’s peaking.
4 years/$176M guarantee, up to 5 years/$206M total.
$25M signing bonus (to account for possible deflated salaries next season, too) $46M, $33.5M, $33.5M, $29M w/ a $9M buyout on a $39M option.
JoeBrady
$41M a year is $6M more than Cole, and that was signed pre-Covid, and Bauer is not nearly as good.
MoRivera 1999
JoeBrady
I agree with you but there is one factor to add: there are arguably no other 1’s on the market. If a team wants a 1, he’s IT. That should drive up his price beyond the factors you correctly mentioned.
JoeBrady
I agree, but that would only apply to teams that need only an ace to get to the top, and have no competing needs.
Bauer would be a fit for my RS, but if the cost was really $41M, they would do better to sign Springer, Stroman, and Wong or Hand. The numbers aren’t meant to be exact, but to me, it is like putting in a swimming pool when you should use the same money to put in a new roof and new windows.
Ggg$$$ 2
It’s insane to put him above 25mil yet 40 mil lol. He doesnt have the numbers to equal any of top 5 in either league not counting this year. Darvish is going to win CY anyone else will be lucky to get a vote. That’s how dominate he was.
kodiak920
When it comes to starting pitching, never count out Rizzo and Washington.
Ggg$$$ 2
Cubs are never trading Rizzo what u smoking. We can afford to buy pitching in a trade that offers players with majority of money. With 35 mil open now
kodiak920
Talking about Mike Rizzo, gm of Washington. What are you smoking?
hyraxwithaflamethrower
Maybe, neither Scherzer nor Corbin looked that good, but they already have a lot of money tied up in that rotation.
hyraxwithaflamethrower
As a White Sox fan, I’m not sure I want him (not that I think they have a realistic shot at him in the first place). Stroman is at least consistent from year to year. Bauer has a much higher ceiling, but also a much lower floor. For the money, I’d rather they get Stroman and use the remainder to get a huge upgrade in RF (Springer preferably) rather than a minor one (Pederson).
John Aviles 2
If Hal wasn’t such a FRUGAL multi Billionaire, he would back up his words, saying,
“Yankees fans deserve a lot more. We will do whatever it takes to bring #28”!!!
Unfortunately, he’s a LIER! Now he’s constantly boo hoo-ing that we lost the most $ in MLB this year. Hey, every team lost $. Get over it!!! It’s like an average American loosing, what, $1,000?!?! Big deal!
And he never mentions the Yankees team value (worth) was $2.3 billion only 6 years ago. It has doubled since!!! He has the richest MLB team! Wake up Hal.
This is a year of literally stealing players because of all the other teams that can not afford the $ but, the Yankees CAN!
There are so many quality pitchers and position players that are for the taking right now via free agency and or trade.
‘IF ONLY’ Hal would either stop being so cheap or better yet, just sell the team to someone like Cohen (Mets new owner), the Yankees would be signing and or trading for a definite dynasty.
Yet, Hal looks like he wants to stay under $210 million. WT-!!!
It’s a shame that Cole ‘may’ never see #28 because of Hal!!!
IF ONLY, IF ONLY, IF ONLY…
MoRivera 1999
Hal’s not cheap. What he does or doesn’t do with Bauer is indicative of nothing. Heck, who knows if Boone or Cashman even want Bauer? Do we want to tie up $70MM a year in just two pitchers? There are multiple reasons not to sign Bauer. We need a SP or two but one of them does not have to Bauer.
Ggg$$$ 2
Yanks are maxed out for what he wants. Plus he doesnt want to go to AL again. When he can be more dominate in NL
texasfury93
I expect the Padres to hand him a 2 year, $69 million contract.
Ggg$$$ 2
Cubs will sign him to a multi year deal at 18-20 mil. Right at price lester was worth in his prime yet lester had better #s. He wants to be with a contender in NL central
mike156
He’s going to get paid. But there’s risk everywhere here. If he only wants a short-term deal (or longer with an opt-out) many teams are going to be leery about paying up at a time of uncertain revenues and losing the pick(s). MLBTR suggests 4 years, $128M from Dodgers, and that sounds rational.
I don’t see him as a particularly good fit for the Yankees, even with Tanaka gone, because his AAV will put them at the CBT level without them filling other holes, and Bauer is a fly ball pitcher, which is not great choice for Yankee Stadium. Mets, with Steve Cohen’s $, might be an interesting fit, simply because he’s going to want to raise the level of the team immediately.
Orel Saxhiser
The Dodgers prediction is irrational. Friedman has emphasized developing a homegrown rotation., He’s not going to abandon that to overpay for a 30-year-old who just had his career season for someone else.
mccourtscorpse
not to mention outside of Price its totally homegrown. love it. but Bauer is enticing if he really wants to pitch here.
Ggg$$$ 2
Bottom line as just reported the YAnkees would have to give up too much for him. Including prime 1st 2nd 5th round picks, go well over cap again. and lose international cap space. Which they are all in for this new pitcher coming from jap or sc I forget which.
LordD99
This is not the year to take a single season contract at a high price. He could lose 20% right up front if the season is reduced by the pandemic.
Skeptical
Is it ego or greed? Rejects 18.9 million for one year. In Arizona, where I live, it would take a teacher making the average salary more than 325 years to earn that much, a nurse almost 300 years. Glad we have our priorities straight here.
MoRivera 1999
You can’t blame Bauer for taking what he can earn any more than you can blame yourself for doing the same. The blame would have to be on the fans who place sports above most other things in their lives. That’s where the money comes from.
jimthegoat
Imagine thinking Bauer should leave money on the table… LOL
yoko
Hope he considers option to pitch in NPB.. no idea if there’s any club to have him financially though
TradeBait
Pass. Trevor needs to make whatever he can. Good for him. However, my Reds do not need to kill the roster by giving him what he wants. It’s Cincinnati, not LA or NY. They have to watch what they spend. Trevor may have excellent seasons ahead of him. Or he may blow a ligament out in ST that kills his career. Never bet the house on a single player/pitcher.
WiffleBall
Given his antics, attitude, and potential legal issues, I don’t think many teams will offer a kings ransom for him.
Guilty or not, trouble follows this guy, and any contract will be a big risk. Dodgers are probably very happy he turned down the QO