The Padres are working toward a two-year contract with right-hander Mike Clevinger, reports Fansided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). A two-year pact would buy out Clevinger’s remaining two years of arbitration, creating cost certainty for the Friars and granting some extra financial security for the pitcher himself. It would not, however, provide the Padres with any additional club control over Clevinger, who is currently on track to reach free agency after the 2022 campaign.
It’s sensible for both the Padres and Clevinger, who’ll turn 30 next month, to proactively look to avoid the arbitration process entirely. Arbitration figures to be messier than ever this offseason in the wake of the league’s broad-reaching revenue losses, so it behooves San Diego to get some cost certainty — particularly if doing so allows them to backload Clevinger’s salary. For Clevinger himself, he’ll avoid a potentially contentious process and lock in not only his 2021 salary but his 2022 contract on the heels of a season that ended with elbow concerns.
Clevinger earned $4.1MM in 2020, and using MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s 37-percent projection method, he’d land at a $4.8MM salary in 2021. That’s obviously a rather modest bump, and the uncertainties surrounding this year’s arbitration process in general inherently create a fairly broad range of variance. Still, a two-year deal figures to check in south of $20MM, given that Clevinger’s second- and third-time arbitration salaries would have only been a fraction of his open-market value, as is typically the case with arb numbers.
The 2020 season saw Clevinger again pitch at a very high level, as he worked 41 2/3 frames of 3.02 ERA ball with a 40-to-14 K/BB ratio. He struggled with his control a bit early on but righted the ship with the Padres, issuing just three walks in 19 regular-season innings following the blockbuster trade that shipped him from Cleveland to San Diego. Clevinger came under fire early in the season not only breaking Covid-19 protocols but traveling with the Indians after doing so. Cleveland learned of his infraction after the fact and subsequently optioned him to their alternate training site; Clevinger was traded not long after, although the organization denied that his rule violations played a role in driving the move.
Whatever the motivation, the Padres stand to benefit in the years to come. Clevinger joins Dinelson Lamet as a front-of-the-rotation arm at Petco Park, and the Padres have a wealth of other pitching talent on hand as well. Chris Paddack struggled in 2020 but was dominant as a rookie a year prior. Zach Davies enjoyed a breakout year this season following a trade from the Brewers. Top prospect Luis Patino made his big league debut in 2020, and the even more ballyhooed MacKenzie Gore should do so in 2021. Lefty Adrian Morejon gives San Diego yet another intriguing, high-upside option.
All told, it’s a both enviable and inexpensive crop of arms that give the Padres considerable long-term depth and upside. The Padres have some high-priced players on the position side of things — Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers — and will likely explore a long-term deal for Fernando Tatis Jr. at some point. Nailing down Clevinger’s price helps the front office and ownership alike get a better sense of the budget for that and other moves over the next two years.
2020 salary was $4.1M so 2 yrs $14M?
That’s too low. I’m guessing in the $18-20M range
That’s probably a fair range. You can usually count on a doubling of the salary in year 2 and an increase in the amount of the first year up to another double. Counting that, looking at $8 million this year and anywhere from $12 to $16 million next year. $18-20 would be in the ballpark.
It should be lower than expected considering the Padres are forfeiting the right to non-tender a pitcher with injury concerns one year down the road.
It’s a reasonable point, but if you take jkoch’s math, you get up to $24M over 2 years through arbitration. A contract at $18M is 25% off. That’s not bad.
Looks like Clevinger is getting 2 yrs -$11.5M after his TJS announcement. My $14M for 2 yrs looks pretty close now lol
For what it’s worth with other people on this thread debating how damaged his arm is, Richards was signed 2 years ago from the angels after his TJ surgery for 2 years $15.5M and he’s close-ish in talent value but has a big injury history now.. If it’s 2 years and under $20M it’s damaged goods if it’s over $20M that’s good news.
Padres should try to sign him to an extension. Dude’s a stud.
Technically they just did
An extension means you extend out the length of his contract, this deal merely replaced the terms of the 2 years left on their control.
But it’ll be guaranteed for Clevinger. If he gets hurt in 2021, he can be non-tendered next offseason if he’s not signed. So, technically, an extension.
If you want to be technical an extension just means to extend the guaranteed portion of any contract, which they will do if they finish this deal
arbitration isn’t guaranteed
Yeah, I guess he is not officially signed yet. There is time for him to do something stupid to get non-tendered this month!
Or, he has another injury year and SD would non tender him… but with extension, are stuck paying him either way.
Locks in cost certainty for SD and they of course are optimistic, thinking he’ll be a 200 inning ace next year and then be a bargain in 2022
Two sides with risks
Dude was injured at the end of last season however. Elbow is a red flag. Is TJ looming? No need to panic, but must consider.
i say yes
When healthy he is great for five innings. The problem is that he’s never healthy. He would have missed April and May last year. He got hurt almost immediately with the Padres. Watching him pitch makes my arm hurt. Padres should pray they get 40 total starts from the guy over the next two years.
Yeah, he’s about as jerky and un-smooth as it gets for an MLB pitcher. He’s got major injury written all over him. But he is a stud “when” he’s pitching for sure.
Not bad and the hipster traded 10 guys for him
Padres must be feeling good about his elbow…
That’s kind of the biggest takeaway for me from this. It’s not going to change the length of his contract, but the fact that the team wants to lock in his 2022 salary now means they must think he’s going to be his normal self next year.
If they had major doubts, it wouldn’t make sense to guarantee the second year at what’s likely going to be a higher rate to account for arb raises.
“If SD was worried about his elbow and TJ, then they wouldn’t be working toward a 2 year deal like the article says”
Or they think they can lock him in for a massive discount now… and are mitigating the risk he could be healthy and then command close to 20M after next year
@Laughing@You that’s an interesting theory except that’s just not how arbitration works.
He’s projected to get somewhere between $4.4M and $6M this year. You don’t just go from making ~$5M in your second to last year of arb to making $20M the final year. The largest single year jump ever was when Mookie Betts went from making $10.5 to $20M, a jump of $9.5M and he’s an MVP caliber player.
In fact, no pitcher has ever made $20M in arbitration ever. The closest ever is David Price who made $19.75M in his final year, but he was already making $14M in his second to last year, so we’re talking about a jump of less than $6M.
If Clevinger has a solid year in 2021 his final arb salary will probably be like $10-12M.
Or Clevinger and his agent are worried about a serious injury like TJ Surgery and are trying to guarantee the 2nd year. His injury history and elbow situation seem pretty scary to me.
It takes two to tango. The article implies that SD is working on it, not just that Clev wants it.
If SD was worried about his elbow and TJ, then they wouldn’t be working toward a 2 year deal like the article says. It would be a really bad idea for them to unnecessarily guarantee a second year if it was still a concern, so based on the fact that they are attempting to guarantee the 2nd year, I think we can infer that SD is confident in his health moving forward. That confidence could be misplaced and the deal could end up backfiring, but the point is they wouldn’t even try to do the deal if they thought he needed TJ.
Right I agree, but the original poster was implying that because SD is interested means he’s looking healthy. I was just stating there is a probably a good reason why Clevinger is looking for a 2 yr deal. There’s no doubt he’s more risky than most pitchers with his health situation at this pt. And all pitchers are risky to begin with…
Two year deal with elbow concerns? I place it in the unwise category.
Unwise decisions are music to Preller ears
So was the news that he slept with your girlfriend.
He slept with my girlfriend, too. She’s onboard the Preller train but I remain neutral.
Doubtful he’s too busy researching overpaid players that he can sign that do nothing in postseason
I’m guessing it has to be a major discount for the Pads to do that. Otherwise it would just be stupid, with little upside.
The Padres were going to tender him arbitration this year. The only risk of this is a 1 year extension instead of his last arb.
I’m just saying the risk with a 2 yr deal is if he has major surgery they’re on the hook for the 2nd yr. The wait and see approach still allows them to have him for 2 yrs if he remains healthy and walk away if not. So Clevinger would need to give a major discount to get that 2 yr guarantee, otherwise there’s no upside for the Pads and added risk.
If Marcus Stroman can get 19, then Clevinger can get 19 as well. Might be more injury concerns, but he is well worth 19-20 mil ,and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got more.
They are entirely different situations and should not be compared. He might end up that high, but Stroman’s contract will have nothing to do with it. Stroman got the QO which is why he is paid so much. The Padres could probably go to arbitration the next two years and the second year might come that high. The only way hes going to make 19 million in both these arbitration years is if he gives up free agent years as well through an extension.
We need more clevinger va tapia at bats. The battle off on the p p dance
That was great I remember watching that game
This has blunder #156 for Preller written all over it
Still positive I see.
I get the injury concerns, but it’s only a 2-yr deal, and really, it only affects one of the years because it’s obvious he’s going to be tendered for next year. Say he would have gotten $8M in arb, but instead signs for $18M. You have the second year at $10M instead of what could be $16M. That’s a significant discount if it works out and, if it doesn’t, it won’t sink the team like Pujols contract has with the Angels for quite a while now.
2/$18M makes a lot of sense here. Sign him for $6M in 2021 & $12M in 2022 to give them some cash flow relief for this upcoming season. If he stays healthy, he’s looking at $20M+ per year once he hits free agency. Given that the CBA expires in 2021, it makes sense for Clevinger to lock in a salary for 2022 now, even if he does not get all of it due to a strike or lockout.
Maybe some flexibility to throw an offer at Bauer? Probably not, but would be nice to put him atop a rotation for a few years with Clev and Lamet
I don’t know if it really gives them flexibility, maybe some certainty? Unless they structure the money in some weird way, like backloading the deal to save in 2021 they’re probably still going to pay him amounts similar to what he would make in arbitration.
It might help them in deciding whether to pursue specific players if they know for certain what they will owe Clev each year, but at the end of the day the total dollars probably don’t change much right?
Padres should over pay a bit for a team option for that 3rd year.
It’s sensible for both the Padres and Clevinger, who’ll turn 30 next month, to proactively look to avoid the arbitration process entirely.
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A lot of times, these things are not necessarily sensible on both sides. No one knows Clevinger’s arm better than he does. When Hicks signed his extension, it didn’t take him long to hit the DL. Same with Severino. In fact, they went straight to the DL after signing. The RS haven’t gotten an inning out of Sale either, on his new contract.
I like the idea of locking in hitters for at least their arbitration years. But pitchers, especially injured pitchers, and especially if they start missing the plate, are a big injury risk. If they get a big discount, I’d make the gamble, but I don’t know that this is sensible on SD’s part.
You’re comparing contracts where guys gave away years of free agency vs contracts that are just for arbitration , then making sweeping conclusions
Bit odd
I’d rather see a base salary with bonus monies for every start in both years.