Even though they finished under .500 for the first time since 2014, the Astros still found a way to overcome key injuries and make it to their fourth consecutive ALCS this year. However this offseason pans out, the Astros could still have enough talent on hand to push for another playoff berth in 2021. For now, though, general manager James Click & Co. are at risk of losing two high-end hitters in free agency.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Altuve, 2B: $104MM through 2024
- Alex Bregman, 3B: $79MM through 2024
- Justin Verlander, RHP: $33MM through 2021
- Zack Greinke, RHP: $32.5MM through 2021 (Diamondbacks owe $10.33MM and $11MM is deferred)
- Ryan Pressly, RHP: $8.75MM through 2021
- Yuli Gurriel, 1B: $7MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout for 2022)
- Joe Smith, RHP: $4MM through 2021
- Martin Maldonado, C: $3.5MM through 2021
- Brooks Raley, LHP: $2MM salary through 2021 if he’s in the majors ($250K salary if he’s in the minors)
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
- Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
- Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: None
Free Agents
- George Springer, Michael Brantley, Roberto Osuna, Josh Reddick, Brad Peacock, Chris Devenski, Dustin Garneau, Chase De Jong
Outfielder George Springer has been a premier hitter and a face of the Houston franchise going back to his first year in 2014, though his Astros tenure may be on the verge of ending. After rejecting the Astros’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, the 31-year-old is now unquestionably one of the few elite players on the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll rake in a five-year, $125MM payday. Of course, that’s assuming teams will be willing to spend that type of money this offseason after the pandemic took its toll on the league’s finances over the past several months.
The Astros, for their part, have doled out some huge contracts in recent years (the club also took on Zack Greinke’s money in a trade). They also threw around a bit of cash this fall when they made the somewhat eyebrow-raising move to re-sign first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract despite an uninspiring campaign. However, it remains to be seen whether all of the guaranteed deals on the payroll will have a negative effect on their chances of re-signing Springer, as owner Jim Crane may be reluctant to go to $100MM-plus lengths for him. Furthermore, as Cody Poage of The Crawfish Boxes recently explained in a rundown of the Astros’ payroll, they only have about $37.5MM to spend if they want to stay under the $210MM luxury-tax threshold in 2021. That would make it a challenge to combine re-upping Springer with adequately addressing their other needs.
Of course, along with Springer, the Astros may wave goodbye to another major offensive piece in outfielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley. The Astros didn’t issue him a QO, but they have had talks on a new deal with Brantley, whom they signed to a two-year, $32MM pact a couple offseasons ago. Brantley should get another reasonable deal in that range this time, though Houston would probably have to trust the 33-year-old as an everyday outfield option if it’s going to bring him back. Brantley spent the majority of the season at DH because knee problems wiped out Yordan Alvarez’s 2020, but Alvarez figures to regain control of that spot next year.
With Josh Reddick also on the open market, the only sure bet for the Astros’ outfield is big-hitting corner option Kyle Tucker. The cupboard is close to bare otherwise. Myles Straw endured a miserable year at the plate, so it would be hard to pencil him in as Springer’s replacement in center. And while Chas McCormick is a farmhand of some note, the 25-year-old is hardly a can’t-miss prospect, and he has no big league track record at all. So, as is the case with Straw, it’s difficult to envision the Astros handing McCormick a starting job and hoping he can somehow help fill the Springer/Brantley void.
Considering their outfield issues, the Astros are going to have to use free agency and/or the trade market if they lose Springer, Brantley, Reddick or all three. Those players aside, there probably isn’t a better fit in free agency than longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Granted, there’s a significant drop-off from Springer to Bradley, but JBJ is still the second-best center fielder available and someone who should be in the Astros’ price range (MLBTR predicts Houston will ink him to a two-year, $16MM).
Joc Pederson and Jurickson Profar are the next highest-ranked outfielders in free agency, though neither would address the Astros’ hole in center. In Pederson’s case, there may still be bad blood stemming from the Dodgers-Astros World Series in 2017, so whether Houston would even have a chance at signing him is unknown. Even someone like Brett Gardner could be difficult to get in the wake of the Yankees-Astros 2017 ALCS and the animosity directed at the team’s sign-stealing scandal.
Beyond those names, there isn’t much to get excited about on the open market. But if Houston spends little in the outfield and settles for the next tier or two, the team will be looking at the likes of ex-Astros Robbie Grossman and Jake Marisnick, Kevin Pillar, Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor. Yasiel Puig could be a wild card to keep an eye on after missing all of 2020. The Astros-Dodgers rivalry could be in play with Puig, but he may be desperate enough to sign with anyone who shows interest in him.
Outfield troubles aside, most of the Astros’ position player group looks to be in place for 2021. Gurriel, Alvarez, second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa (if the Astros don’t unexpectedly trade him one year before free agency) and third baseman Alex Bregman are still there. Martin Maldonado is the favorite to return as their catcher, but if the Astros are willing to spend for an upgrade, J.T. Realmuto and to a much lesser extent James McCann may be on the table (it seems more likely the team would splurge on Springer than Realmuto, though). Otherwise, the Astros could at least look for an upgrade over reserve Garrett Stubbs. Yadier Molina, Mike Zunino, Tyler Flowers, Alex Avila, Wilson Ramos and former Astro Jason Castro are among the top backup/timeshare types looking for work.
On the pitching side, the Astros’ rotation somehow held its own in 2020 despite almost no contributions from reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The timing of that procedure means Verlander also won’t help the team in 2021. However, they do still appear to have their one through five locked up with Greinke, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The Astros could at least pursue some depth signings in case of injury and/or underperformance, but they don’t look like a team that has to fret over its starting staff or pour substantial resources into it this offseason.
The bullpen, on the other hand, could be a different story with Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski on the market. The good news for the Astros is that they were able to adjust to life without them in 2020. Osuna missed almost the whole season with elbow problems, leading the Astros to cut the potential Tommy John patient. Likewise, Peacock and Devenski barely factored in for the club.
Even with the Osuna-Peacock-Devenski departures, the Astros still do have at least a handful of enviable relief arms in Ryan Pressly, Andre Scrubb, Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor (though Scrubb and Taylor did struggle with walks in 2020). Joe Smith could reenter the fold after sitting out all of 2020, while Austin Pruitt, Brooks Raley, Cionel Perez and Josh James are also among those who could vie for roles.
Although the above names may well comprise most of Houston’s bullpen next year, it won’t be a surprise if the team searches for a reliever(s) who’s more of a sure thing. Luckily for the Astros, free agency is overflowing with veteran relievers who figure to come at fair prices. Even the heads of the class (Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, Blake Treinen and Trevor May) shouldn’t be overly expensive, and there are other credible hurlers in the lower tiers with Alex Colome, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Shane Greene, former Astro Mark Melancon and Greg Holland just some of many seeking MLB employment.
While it would behoove the Astros to bring in any relievers along those lines, it’s clear that the outfield is the biggest question Click will have to answer over the next few months. If Click is able to find two good complements to Tucker, it would go a long way in assuring the Astros remain in contention a year from now.
Signed Raley with his 6.33 ERA??
He had a 3.94 ERA and struck out nearly 12 batters per nine inning with the Astros, who have had incredible success getting the most out of pitchers that other clubs gave up on.
Let me get it out the way. Something something something trashcans.
“Mookie Betts #1! Yay!”
“Red Sox for life! Cora #1”
“I sure hope Springer signs with my team!”
Well played. If anyone had Astros insults to post, I can say for certain they have been bested.
It’s like you already knew what was coming
……puts on sunglasses
So I have a trade idea in my head right now. It would be between Texas and Houston and it would have Texas sending their grizzly ace, Nick Solak, and Jose Leclerc to the Astros for Forrest Whitley. Could this happen? Solak can play LF and (if needed) 2nd base. He could probably start in Houston too; he’s a nice little bottom of the order bat. Reminds me of Adam Eaton. Leclerc would probably turn into Eric Gagne if he went to Houston too lol. Not to mention the bearded ace with one year left on his deal. He’d give Houston a really nice 1,2,3 with Valdez, Bearded man, and Grienke.
As for Whitley, I really want him. It’d be buying low, but I still think he has a ton of talent. Really would love to see him in Arlington.
Who says no?
Rangers need outfielders. I think they say no. Didn’t put much thought into this though so don’t hate lol
I say no.
No
I thought you weren’t going to talk about lance Lynn for a week? Jk I’m just messing with you man
the Astros. CHEATERS CHEATERS CHEATERS.
My god. Get over it.
As a Brewers fan who still sees venom spit at us because of Braun eight years ago, I’ve gotta say, less than a year of people trash-ing your team doesn’t warrant your complaining to get over it. Your guys’ cheating won a World Series, and nearly two of them. You’ll be hearing about this for a lot longer than a few months, your team acted like a can of garbage. Sports fans will hold grudges for a long time, get used to it.
Yeah it’s true, even if the “nearly two” is based on nothing factual. Sorry, if you hold the report as gospel for 2017, you should for 2019 as well.
@Donnie. I have used Ryan Braun in the past to demonstrate just how long a memory baseball fandom can have. It’s been 7 years since Braun finally confessed yet STILL his name isn’t so much spoken as much as spit out of your mouth because you just did one of those burp/spit-up things.
Baseball fans are not a particularly forgiving lot. I imagine by the time the Astros do a complete turnover this will still be dogging them.
It didn’t help that Braun was caught up in the Biongenesis scandal a couple years later. He denied everything and basically got away with it the first time in 2011. The Biogenesis thing happened and people felt Braun betrayed people all over again.
Perhaps twice bitten leaves a fan scorned.
It was the way Braun handled it. He tried to ruin a guys life to cover up his cheating, was spreading that the guy was anti Semitic and that was why it happened
Nobody really cares about Nelson Cruz or Robinson Cano getting caught anymore (at least until HoF voting)
Wonder how many people blaming Astros fans for supporting a cheater (who acknowledge electronic cheating) will beat their chests while supporting a political party suspected of same.
Wow. Of course we know what you’re referring to but you might want to focus on the outcomes of all the accusations instead of the accusations. Similarly, Astros were accused of it and we now know they did it. Makes it a lot easier to call them out Personally I believe proof and not just random posturing.
Donnie, you don’t seem too bright/aware of the facts. Free data available to you proves two things. One, they didn’t cheat in the playoffs. Two, it canceled itself out in the aggregate.
You seem to believe they cheated in 2019. Why? How? What evidence is there of that? You being delusional? Believing absurd made-up buzzer theories? Let me ask you something, since you’re so informed on this, why would a buzzer tell Altuve to swing at a slider?
I want you to explain that one to me. If you did a shred of research, the system was designed around notifying the batters when a fastball was coming. You’re essentially implying that Altuve…
A. Cheated (Evidence shows otherwise, evidence you’re choosing to ignore)
B. Needed cheating to hit a miserable pitch
Their system would never tell them a hitter to chase off-speed. Anyway, you’ve been thoroughly debunked. Have fun watching the mediocre Brewers.
Haha the report as gospel? They admitted to cheating….maybe you weren’t following relevant details. Cheaters do that, you know, hoping no one notices…
Thoroughly debunked? The only facts needed in this situation are that the players admitted to and apologized for cheating. Don’t need any extra reports to tell me whether they did or not. If a player admits to cheating and apologizes for cheating.. then they cheated.
And thanks, I’ll enjoy watching my mediocre brewers. I love baseball no matter if my team wins it all or takes last place. Mediocre implies we’re not *trash* so that means I’ll get to see some winning baseball occasionally, so thanks for the slight optimism!
I’m aware of Braun, his denials and Biogenesis scandals..but it’s been 7 years. I was ticked off at it also..but it’s been 7 years. I finally burped and got over it.
Braun showed his true colors with how he handled being caught. I’m happy rooting against him indefinitely
right after you return the rings
Winnners, winners winners
Either play Garrett Stubbs or trade him. (I prefer the former.)
There is no vaccine for the Astros plague.
Well, fellas I’d love to stay & chat. But I’ve my own banging scheme that I’m hoping pays off.
#LFGD
So.
My son is 17. He does a lot of translating stuff for me. I asked him what ^this meant.
He told me.
& then asked, “you’re on a baseball site?” rather dubiously.
I’m crying laughing right now. I just have to imagine what your son said when he saw your original comment lol.
BTW, the D in LFGD stood for Ducky lol.
Man, I tell ya…
It’s been he & I the whole time. We’ve both learned the hard way to *not* see what’s on each other’s respective computers or phones or whatever.
That’s good to hear. Though this feels weird because I’m waaay closer to the age of your son rather than your age lol. It’s cool that we’ve built up a pretty good group of commenters here because even though we will probably never see each other… ever, we can still hear stories like that and enjoy them from time to time.
There was a great Yankees blog called River Ave Blues. Closed a few years ago. Anyway, every thread would break a thousand comments, serious. Some would occasionally hit 5 figures.
Posters ranged in age from 13 to 80, man. I learned stuff from tons of those fellas (& the occasional lady poster).
I just started posting here this summer. When we (self included!) stay away from politics it *is* a pretty good, interesting, & informative crew.
I’m thinking about joining a Texas Rangers themed one called Lone Star Ball (lsb for short). I’ve read it for years, and they get into all kinds of different topics too. Seems like an interesting group, I’ll probably do it soon. I’ve been here since the 2018-2019 off-season and I’ve seen some good commenters and bad ones alike, though the good outweigh the bad. There’s a few key commenters that I could name off the top of my head as being good like you, mlb1225, and a guy named WarkMohlers that I had a really weird interaction with here yesterday: mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/jose-abreu-wins-america…
It’s a good group here, but I’d like to join some others as well. I also play baseball, so just to get my name (username) spread around some.
I’ve been into MLBTR lately because it’s interacting with fans of all teams from all over.
Provides good perspective. But team centered blogs are pretty cool, too.
MLB1225 & Wark Mohlers are both really good posters. I’m not sure I’m necessarily at their level.
That’s pretty funny, man. Seems like typical jock humor.
Awesome that you play, man! Enjoy those days. For almost all of us they were brief & fleeting. And – of course – we *all* get better the longer it’s been since we played. 😉
Thanks for bringing so much enthusiasm to the board, serious.
Money trumps any animosity these players have for Houston (or any team they didn’t like).
I like this site, I really do, but this post really claims Joc Pederson or Yasiel Puig would hesitate to sign with Houston because they played for the Dodgers? Just… wow. They are free agents, one who is out of baseball for a year and neither who can exactly call their own shots… but sure, they’d turn down a contract because message boards on the internet are mean. I get Houston’s trash can cheating made you mad, but sometimes, even just once in a while, can some of you all step back to reality? Players will take their millions where they can get it.
says the guy living in fantasy land about the cheating.
let me guess, you also think christian flu (i mean covid) is some hoax too?
oh wait, tell me how donnie actually won the election?
(figured if you’re gonna go ‘t&rd, might as well go full).
mfm, your post has got to be the most infantile, asinine and unnecessary load of hateful nonsense I’ve seen on here in a long time. But go ahead, keep thinking you’re one of the good guys
Puig had a hard time finding a team who’d pay him. Wouldn’t be surprised if he signed with the Astros if they made a competitive offer. At this point Puig is looking for employment and some millions.
Yea, Puig will just be lucky/happy to get a major league offer at this point
Exactly. And with Springer, Reddick and Brantley gone it wouldn’t be a bad fit for Puig. Gurriel’s a fellow Cuban also and could reign him in.
Actually have an affinity for Cuban players ( or had. Maybe James Click thinks differently)
In addition to Gurriel, they have Yordan Alvarez, Aledmys Diaz, Cionel Perez, and are set to sign a top Cuban prospect Pedro Leon as soon as the international period resumes.
We will see.
It seems JBJ is the best player for the Astros to grab. I think corner outfield ought to be easy to fill.
I’d like to see reunion with Charlie Morton plus the addition of some reliable RPs.
Brantley was great, but I wonder if he can actually stay in the field. It might behoove the Astros to just be grateful that contract worked out perfectly.
Regardless, I think my team will be good next year, and favorites to win the division.
“Behoove”, lol.
Over time—it will be interesting to see if Click is qualified to be in the role as a General Manager.
The qualifications have come to fruition! Jim Crane hired James Click as the new GM of the Houston Astros! Now a good GM vs a bad is completely different story.
Verlander and Grienke come off the books next year (65 million) which is a ton. They may go into the Luxury Tax, but they can afford it, especially after next year. Resign Springer and Brantley, extend Correa, sign Brad Hand for 2 years, head on back to the ALCS.
I agree with your thoughts 100%. I think Brad Hand is getting a bit overhyped at this point. The bullpen is actually in good shape with Paredes providing a potential legit closing option if he takes the next step after a solid playoff experience. Pressley is better as a setup guy. Remember that Abreu has legit potential to become a closer and looked great in Spring before COVID hit. He is a wildcard. Scrubb seems like the type of guy that becomes a middle relief monster that has 60-80 appearances in a given year. Taylor looks like a good quasi-7th inning setup guy depending on the situation and could be more if progress on command is made and he avoids injury to his elbow which got creaky late in the year. Raley is a nice mid-relief guy that is very tough on lefties but can pitch to righties as well. There are also a couple guys in high minors that can provide some depth and upside. Joe Smith provides a nice veteran presence and change of pace guy. I’ve just named two back end bullpen guys in Paredes and Pressley, possibly a 7th inning or high leverage situation guy in Taylor, veteran guy in Smith to change the pace and two middle relief rubber arms in Scrubb and Raley.
Shawn Dubin is a high minors guy that has really taken off and might be part of the answer and Abreu is highly likely to make the team next year and provide upside that could be late inning option by the end of season as we often see in baseball where relievers come out of seemingly nowhere and are late inning options. Cionel Perez is a guy that could be a real game changer as he has great stuff and just needs to harness his control while adjusting to a likely bullpen role. Been on the radar for a few years and I could see him breaking out next year. That totals 8 legit MLB bullpen options and one high minor league option with several high upside guys in that group. While it would be great to find a lockdown closer, I’d prefer to use that money to resign Springer and possibly Brantley and a couple depth pitchers as I also do not see the team being able to afford a high end SP and there are 5 starters projected for the rotation that are somewhere between #2 – #4 type starters. There is minimal depth behind that, though Whitley and Jairo Solis look to potentially be guys that could end up as impact starters next year if they take the next step Solis seems the more likely of the two at this point but Whitley is far too talented to give up on or trade for scraps. Hunter Brown is a guy there is a lot of noise around and could be one of those fast risers that pushes his way on to the team after the all-star break and be a swing guy in the playoffs assuming there is a healthy starting rotation..
I think the Astros are best suited to go after swing guys that can be dependable starters or multiple innings guys out of the pen and have good enough stuff to be relied upon in the postseason during the 5-7th inning points of the game. The first guy that comes to my mind is Mike Minor. He had a great 2019 season (legit #3 starter type stuff on true contender) but pitched poorly this year until the playoffs. He looked really good against the Astros and he would seem to be guy that could be signed for 2 / 8 or 2./10 to provide starter depth and bullpen depth while also providing some security in the rotation if McCullers and Greinke leave the team after 2021. If he were to start the year in the rotation it might allow Javier to piggyback for a month or two out of the bullpen while also getting some high leverage bullpen experience until one of the starters gets injured and another starter is needed. Wonder if Brad Peacock would take a minor-league deal after having shoulder surgery? If he is his old self in some fashion he provides another swing guy option and helps keep the team chemistry in tact as more and more guys move on,.
I like Charlie Morton and all but the team let him go after 2018 largely due to concerns over his shoulder which is still problematic for him. It ended up holding out well in 2019 but not so much in shortened 2020. Expecting him to be a savior and paying him $10MM+ if it means you cannot resign Springer and some additional pitching depth, I’m against it. I’d prefer to see us sign Mike Minor, ink Peacock to a minor league deal or $1MM or so MLB deal if market requires it, then add another veteran bullpen option that is relatively cheap. Those 3 guys would probably cost less than Hand by himself. I just think there is plenty of pitching talent on the Astros (outside of a bona-fide Ace option – I see Framber topping out as #2 and Urquidy #3) to where the pitching investments need to be in relatively low-cost stabilizers for 2021 and 2022 to protect from injuries and inconsistency of young guys and free agent departures. If a good opportunity comes up to acquire a high end talent for limited investment, be ready to pull the trigger but these stabilizing signings I mention make it easier to include a high minors guy or two for a win-now backend bullpen guy. Felipe Vazquez has been a strong closer for the Pirates who are clearly in rebuild mode. I want to say I remember him getting in trouble or something but lost track in 2020. If he is not a question mark for 2021 I could see him being a high upside back end trade acquisition that wouldn’t cost much given his contract amount in this environment and is preferable to Brad Hand easily.
The team just needs enough pitching depth to get to the postseason as the lineup, with or without Springer, will be top 5. People are forgetting how incredible Yordan was as a rookie and looked like the most skilled power hitter on the Astros for a large portion of the season.
This post has already gotten out of hand but I have many thoughts on the everyday player options in various scenarios with Springer and/or Brantley resigned or gone or one gone and one resigned. I would say first and foremost, neither of those guys should be resigned if it impedes the ability to extend Carlos Correa. That guy has been the real deal from day one in 2012 after the draft and in his rookie year. Due to his injury history people have forgotten about him but he is the most indispensable player in each playoff run with exception of 2018 when he was barely walking but seems to fly under the radar. He was the only guy to call a spade a spade on the sign stealing issue without throwing other teams under the bus and he has been the true alpha leader on this team for 5 years now. The Astros infield defense is one of the most overlooked strengths of this team and he is the key with his gold glove caliber glove and rocket arm which allows an athletic average defensive SS in Alex Bregman to play 3B at a top level defensively and provide adequate range on the left side of the infield during shifts. He is clutch and I cannot believe the stat heads cannot understand how some people are mentally stronger and focus better in high leverage situations than others but it is a real thing and there is enough of a track record to back it up with Correa.
Correa can absolutely not be allowed to get away after 2021. Extending him should be priority number 1 this offseason, though it would occur around Spring Training. Assuming that gets done (I believe it will) all of the remaining speculative moves fall into place.
whatever happens to the Asstros i hope losing follows for years to come. they got away with cheating and hopefully fans will get to show what we think of them in person next year. hope Asstros go 0-162
Well let me see… w
here do I start. Your first hope, lose for years to come that’s not going to happen. Next, they did not get away with cheating, they got caught just like the Yanks, Red Sox’s, Dodgers and many other teams. They paid the price now let it go. Everyone deserves a second chance. Fair is fair if you don’t hate these teams as much then your just not a stand up guy. And as far as going 0-162, you can’t be that stupid… or can you
Why’d you include the Dodgers? I am a diehard fan and I’ve not heard one word that ever lumped them in with any cheating. Prove it or stop adding them to the accusations. If any of that were true I would get in line right behind you to call them out.
There have been plenty of rumors.
Wow cant argue against that logic…
The moon is made of cheese….how do you know? There have been plenty of rumors…durrrr drop the mic lol
The Yanks were found to have a phone in the dugout in one game back in 2017. No evidence of stealing signs. Unlike the Red Sox, who were fined the week before for having camera, etc., and stealing signs. The Yanks were given a small fine. The RS, much larger. Totally different. Get your act straight, if you care to be honest.
The Astros were a below-.500 team last year that slipped into the expanded playoffs and got for a bit. They’re going to lose Springer and I suspect Brantley too. Time for a rebuild. The Altuve contract is looking pretty unmovable, but Bregman could bring in a nice haul if they decide to cash him in over the next year.
In a normal season they aren’t a .500 team. They would still win 90+ games. Last season was a joke of a season.
The Astros scored only four more runs than they allowed. This is practically the dictionary definition of a .500 team. Even with the shortened season it’s pretty difficult to project 90 wins in a full season from such a measly run differential.
They also were decimated by injuries. These things wouldve evened out over the course of a full season, they weren’t a sub .500 team.
They had more than their share, but I don’t see how you can argue it would have evened out in a longer season. Players dealing with injuries can easily be hobbled by them all season long. In any case I was responding to the claim that they would have been 90-game winners in 2020 had it not been for the shortened season. I don’t see much of an argument for that.
The Astros had the second most blown saves in baseball. They had to play over a dozen rookie pitchers due to injuries. If they had the league median number of blown saves they’d be looking at having the same record as the Yankees.
The season was most definitely a lesson in small sample sizes. They were awful offensively during the 60 game regular season. Their playoff offensive performance was more along the lines of their recent history and certainly could have been sustainable if a full 162 games were played which could have plausibly gotten them to a 90 win season