After the Reds earned their first playoff berth since 2013, their offseason began with the surprise resignation of president of baseball operations Dick Williams. General manager Nick Krall, who previously worked under Williams, is now at the helm. Krall already has a lot on his plate with the possible departure of right-handed ace Trevor Bauer, who’s now the preeminent free agent on the market after a Cy Young-winning season.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Joey Votto, 1B: $82MM through 2023 (including $7MM buyout for 2024)
- Mike Moustakas, 2B: $52MM through 2023 (including $4MM buyout for 2024)
- Nick Castellanos, OF: $48MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout for 2024)
- Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $45.5MM through 2024 (including $2MM buyout for 2025)
- Shogo Akiyama, OF: $15MM through 2022
- Sonny Gray, RHP: $20MM through 2022
- Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $9.125MM through 2021
- Wade Miley, LHP: $9MM through 2021 (including $1MM buyout for 2022)
- Tucker Barnhart, C: $4.25MM through 2021 (including $500K buyout for 2022)
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Brian Goodwin – $2.7MM
- Curt Casali – $1.8MM
- Luis Castillo – $3.0MM
- Amir Garrett – $900K
- Michael Lorenzen – $4.0MM
- Tyler Mahle – $1.5MM
- Robert Stephenson – $600K
- Jesse Winker – $2.0MM
- Archie Bradley – $4.7MM
- Non-tender candidates: Goodwin, Casali, Stephenson
Free Agents
- Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Freddy Galvis, Jesse Biddle, Tyler Thornburg
It didn’t look as if the Reds-Bauer union was going to work out after they acquired him from the Indians leading up to the 2019 trade deadline. Bauer had an immense amount of difficulty keeping runs off the board in the wake of the deal, evidenced by the bloated 6.39 ERA he put up in his 56 1/3-inning Reds debut.
While Bauer didn’t make an ideal first impression on the Reds, there was a 180-degree turnaround in 2020, in which the 29-year-old recorded a 1.73 ERA/2.88 FIP with 12.33 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 73 frames. His pitching was instrumental in getting the Reds back to the playoffs, but the problem is that excellence could lead him out of Cincinnati. Williams said before he stepped down that the team would do all it could to keep Bauer, but he also stated that he’s unsure how the Reds’ payroll will shape up in 2021 in as a result of the pandemic. Krall said Friday the team and Bauer haven’t had “substantial” contract talks.
If it’s any consolation for the Reds, they’ll at least get some compensation if Bauer does leave. They made the no-brainer decision to issue him an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he summarily rejected.
The good news for the Reds is that a rotation devoid of Bauer and fellow free agent Anthony DeSclafani would not be a lost cause. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle should once again comprise 60 percent of the group. Wade Miley had a rough, injury-shortened season, but he’s under contract for another year and should get a chance to rebound. It’s unclear how the Reds will fill the other spot in their rotation, though reliever Michael Lorenzen seems poised to get the opportunity to win the job. Tejay Antone could join Lorenzen in competing. Otherwise, free agency is pretty stacked with established arms (Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Adam Wainwright are some of them). The trade market should be led by the Rangers’ Lance Lynn and the Pirates’ Joe Musgrove.
Bauer’s situation aside, the main question the Reds have to answer this offseason may be at shortstop. Indeed, Krall admitted Friday that the position “would be something you’d like to address.”
Freddy Galvis was a useful piece for the club from 2019-20, but he’s now a free agent. That leaves Jose Garcia, 22, as the Reds’ No. 1 at the position. Garcia is a promising prospect, but he never played above High-A before this year. It showed during a major league debut in which Garcia hit a woeful .194/.206/.194 line with no home runs and a wRC+ of 3 across 68 plate appearances. He seems to need more seasoning below the majors before the Reds hand him the reins. That could point the team to free agency, where ex-Red Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons lead the way. The KBO’s Ha-Seong Kim should soon join them. The Indians’ Francisco Lindor and the Rockies’ Trevor Story could be available via trade, but it’ll be a challenge for the Reds to win a sweepstakes for either of those stars.
Besides shortstop, the Reds’ offense probably won’t face many changes over the winter. As seen above, their position player corps features a handful of guaranteed contracts that they won’t be willing or able to jettison. First baseman Joey Votto, second baseman Mike Moustakas, third baseman Eugenio Suarez and right fielder Nick Castellanos are etched in stone. The Reds also seem likely to continue with Tucker Barnhart at catcher, though they could non-tender backup Curt Casali and give his role to Tyler Stephenson. Meanwhile, they’ll have to find playing time in the outfield for the mix of Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel (unless they use him as a trade chip), Aristides Aquino and Brian Goodwin. Granted, the Reds are probably going to non-tender Goodwin.
The Reds’ bullpen should also return largely the same bunch in 2021. As mentioned before, there’s a question whether Lorenzen or Antone will earn a rotation spot instead of a bullpen job. That aside, the club’s not in danger of losing anyone of great importance. Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims and Archie Bradley will all be back. Lorenzen, Antone or both will rejoin that group. That’s a nice core, but the Reds could still add at least one veteran free agent to supplement it. Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, Brad Hand, Blake Treinen and Trevor Rosenthal are the leading relievers looking for work. If they’re out of the Reds’ price range, the likes of Mark Melancon, Jake McGee, Brandon Kintzler and Shane Greene are a few of many who could make for sensible targets.
2020 didn’t include a postseason victory for the Reds, whom the Braves swept in the wild-card round, and it’s now probable that Cincy will see the head of its starting staff depart. Even without Bauer, though, this is still a respectable-looking team and one that could make a return to the playoffs next year if Krall finds a way to address the few glaring holes on the roster.
I have a hard time judging the Reds. I thought they would be great last year and they were decent with many of their stars having down years. Now a new GM, and maybe looking to shed payroll… they could compete for the division lead or the basement. Pretty much sums up the entire NL central. Except the pirates.
Last years gm was Nick Krall this years gm is Nick Krall
After the Reds earned their first playoff berth since 2013, their offseason began with the surprise resignation of president of baseball operations Dick Williams. General manager Nick Krall, who previously worked under Williams, is now at the helm.
Reds have seemed on the cusp of breaking out for a few years now, yet don’t do it for whatever reasons. They have enough talent to give hope but also enough talent to not tear down and start over. They’re just kind of in mediocrity limbo.
Problem with those long term, heavy contracts is none of Votto, Moustakas, Suarez or Castellanos look to be in position to destroy the league. There’d be still some room for improvement, compared with 2020, in Castellanos and Suarez, so in order for the offense to perform the new SS and T. Stephenson will have to do significant contributions.
I estimate approx. $130M in guaranteed payroll with just the players mentioned here. Reds are a bit over their skis for their respective market size. Can’t see them being major players in free agency the next two years, or trading for Lindor. Unless ownership is far more willing than most to trade profits for wins.
I’m not optimistic. There is probably zero money for significant free agents. Votto is past the stage in his career where the production will equal his cost. I never was all that impressed with Moustakous. Suarez still has potential, Castellanos will have motivation to perform better with his opt out option. The OF is a huge question mark with multiple “good enough options” creating good depth, but no clear answers. Losing a Cy Young winner is always going to hurt
Moustakas isn’t good at getting on base. Hes a power guy who should bat 6 or 7 in a good lineup. He is a solid defender, so he deserves a spot but not near the top of the lineup.
Actually Votto entered already his negative contract value side of the curve. The OF is a mess: Castellanos is a very poor defender, Senzel cannot manage to stay healthy, Akiyama has no power and no arm, Winker is a DH and Aquino has not been able to adjust to major league pitching.
Votto will soon become a gigantic albatross. He is already at the bottom of first baseman production. In 2019, his supporters claimed his on-base percentage (largely a result of walking) redeemed his otherwise pedestrian stat line. With 2020, even that slipped to mediocrity. To summarize: he is a below average defender, base runner and offensive force saddled with a well above average salary. The only reason he remains on the field is that huge contract and no-trade clause. This should serve as a strong reminder for any GM/Ownership teams at the negotiation table pondering extending a long-term contract- Votto is exhibit a why paying for past performance is unlikely to assure future excellence. For those with a man-crush on Votto, keep in mind he has four more years remaining on his contract.. Soon he will be greeted with a chorus of boos, away and at home!
I agree the contract is going to hamper the Reds moving forward, and having a limited budget really hurt their ability to compete. I do, however disagree that they paid for past performance. The Reds got a bargain in the early years, and will be overpaying for the end of the contract like almost all these long term large dollar contracts. I don’t think anyone really thought 40 year old Votto was going to be worth $25-30 million a year. It was a risk they took to lock in his prime years at an affordable price, with the hopes of winning a championship before his decline. The Reds wasted those years and will now have to live with the financial implications of the back end of that contract. If they traded him before the first contract ended fans would be just as outraged. People are still mad they traded Phillips, Frazier, and Cueto.
So to agree with your statement that the Reds received a favorable return on investment by basing it on the initial years of the contract is to ignore Votto’s overall performance for the duration of the contract. Should he stay with the club for the contract duration, I believe it will negate the value seen in those early years. I suggest this even if the NL adopts the DH – even with that I think Votto’s value will be modest. Lastly, I think we need to consider opportunity cost. Or what if. What if we took Votto’s salary and placed it towards say a shortstop (Lindor et al.) or another pitcher (#1 or otherwise)? I do not suggest Votto is the only problem with this club – there are many (e.g. anemic minor league system, poor defensively {see Winkler} poor speed {virtually the entire club is station-to-station}, arguably bad field leadership…the list is long. So a not so rosy future. Oh and I’m not so sure with hindsight any of those trio can be embraced for what did they after departing Cincy: oft-injure (Cueto), mediocre – Frazier, Phillips – done! Thank you.
Why do people question Suarez? He had a bad 60 games. The previous three years, he was well above average.
If I remember correctly he was recovering from a shoulder injury as well. Those things don’t heal quickly, so it may have still had some negative impacts on his performance
Correct. Pool accident. I would argue he is actually underrated.
Clearly the Reds have a void at SS that isn’t gonna fill itself. Galvis was serviceable, but it’s time to upgrade even if it’s not significant. I think the Reds will sit back and let the market shake out. There are more FA shortstops than teams who need a SS, so I can see them signing a Semien late on a one or two year deal at roughly $10M per, maybe less.
Would it be all that bad if they brought Galvis back on a 1-yr contract?
I was thinking the same thing.
There’s no way the Reds will non-tender Casali. There would be plenty of trade interest for him at $1.8M, or for Barnhart, if they think T. Stephenson is ready behind the plate.
I like Casali but if someone as good as Brad Hand can be non tendered instead of dealt, even at his $10m price, then a backup like Curt is far from certain to have a trade market
Brad Hand wasn’t dealt because other teams expected the frugal Indians to release him rather than pay him $10MM in 2021. Casali is not overpriced, is a decent catcher, and would fetch something in a trade.
IMO Reds would have benefited more than most from a full regular season. Getting a team with multiple new players they need time to jel and for the manager to work out best ways to get the most out of them. Shogo will hopefully be the on base guy we envisioned with a bit more seasoning. If it should happen in 21 the DH is added it would be good for Reds. Stick Votto and his declining bat there and see if working on just his hitting will help. Save money on pitching, give Lorenzen a starting spot.. SS as mentioned Garcia needs more minor league AB but how many more a year or two? How do you parlay that uncertainty into getting one of the better free agents who can get on base and play decent defense? Our outfield still needs clarity. Will Senzel stay healthy for a whole year? What is the point of keeping Aquino unless he starts? IMO he needs to play a whole year to find out what you have and there is no room for him with who we have now. Anyway stay safe and healthy ya all and go Reds!
Reds still have Greene and Lodolo for possible # 5 right? Offense should b better but SS will have 2 b addressed if they plan 2 compete
At shortstop didi looks to be the most solid free agent candidate and could potentially be affordable. Krall can probably wait until next year in extending Castillo or could use the Bauer money to extend him now. I prefer 5 years and that would get him to the years when Votto’s money if freed up. There are some sluggers that are 3-4 years away in the minors so I don’t see any large buying off seasons like we saw last year for a while. Maybe a couple trades but they have drafted well the last few years. Like the previous post, Lodolo and Greene should be contributing next season, if not in the rotation, at least out of the pen. I would be willing to trade one of Barnhart or Casalli and a Casalli trade probably has to go through Sonny. Regardless, move Votto down in the order, get Didi, and if the rest of them hit somewhere close to normal we will all be thinking they have a shot next September.
2024 Opening Day Lineup
LF Andrew Benintendi
RF Austin Hendrick
2B Tyler Callihan
1B Rece Hinds
C Stephensoni
DH Mac Wainright
CF Senzel
3B India
SSJose Garcia
P Hunter Greene (2nd Opening Day Start)
Castillo, Greene and Lodolo at the top of the rotation.
Should have kept José Iglesias at SS
Reds have no farm system.have a few tradable players to rebuild the system.rebuild now(should have happened years ago)if not then stay in mediocrity for more years and battle the pirates for last each year