Thus far, there’s been little movement on the free agent market. The couple of market-setting moves we have seen, however, involved starting pitchers: namely, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepting $18.9MM qualifying offers, Drew Smyly taking a one-year, $11MM offer from the Braves, and Robbie Ray returning to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM deal. The Smyly and Ray deals say more than either Stroman or Gausman about the current market price for starting pitchers, as those qualifying offers come with a whole set of extenuating circumstances on both sides of the aisle. Regardless, we’re in the very early stages of the offseason and the first few deals don’t always set the pace.
In light of what we’ve seen so far, Lance Lynn’s one-year, $9.3MM deal looks like a more attractive trade piece now than it was even a week ago. But that doesn’t always help grease the wheels. The difficulty in trading a player on a great contract like Lynn is that for the acquiring team, Lynn’s value drops precipitously as the prospect value it takes to acquire him rises. Of course, the Rangers aren’t incentivized to move him without significant and/or talented youth coming back. To oversimplify, trading is hard.
Following a breakout 7.5 bWAR season in 2019, Lynn again posted solid production with a 3.32 ERA across 13 starts totaling a league-leading 84 innings in 2020. Admittedly, Lynn lost about a half mph off his four-seamer, and a career-high 28.1 K% in 2019 fell to 25.9 K% in 2020. That amounts to a difference of roughly 20 strikeouts over a full season. That’s not a worrisome drop in either velocity or K-rate, but it’s still noteworthy for a guy entering his age-34 season.
Using Fangraphs metrics – which were less bullish on his 2020 than baseball-reference – Lynn’s 4.17 FIP put him on pace for a 3.7 fWAR full-scale season (with a similar workload to 2019). That’s closer to middle-of-the-rotation stalwart than it is unequivocal ace. And yet, brass tacks: that’s valuable.
Potential acquiring teams might look at the number of young players who stepped into roles at the Major League level last season and choose to ride it out with their own cheaper, younger, and yet more volatile assets. Lynn no doubt brings more certainty to a rotation, however, and even his one-year contact can be seen as a positive for a team that values financial flexibility. In this day and age, most teams qualify.
If the Rangers decide to move him, they’ll look to get pitching prospects in return, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Generally speaking, GM Jon Daniels spoke highly of their pool of position player prospects, complimenting their depth in that department. Pitching has long been an area for improvement for Texas, and it makes sense to seek pitching if subtracting a presence like Lynn.
There’s value in keeping Lynn, however. If Daniels is unable to get a blue-chip prospect in return, keeping Lynn isn’t the worst outcome. Besides, the AL West is arguably more wide open than at any point in the last five years. The Houston Astros stranglehold on the division finally lessened in 2020, the A’s could lose shortstop Marcus Semien in free agency, and the Angels are currently pivoting in the front office. The Mariners, meanwhile, have begun to put some solid pieces together, but they’re not a deterrent for Texas. Both are in the same boat, presumably near the bottom of the American League West.
Way-too-early oddsmakers peg the Rangers among the least likely MLB teams to win the World Series with odds around 80-to-1. It’s doubtful whether they have enough pitching beyond Lynn to truly compete, but stranger things have happened. Besides, Rangers’ fans might like to have a pitcher of Lynn’s pedigree in the rotation, even in the event that they struggle to keep pace. It’s easy to say from the outside that the Rangers are best served trading Lynn, but sometimes those living inside the house simply like living there too much to sell it.
So let’s hear from Rangers’ fans. Is it time to take the best prospect package available? Or do you want to see what happens to start the season? If you don’t consider the Rangers your favorite team, we want to hear from you too. There are more possible opinions than what I’m offering below, so do your best to choose the opinion closest to yours, then spell out the difference for us in the comments.
(Poll link for app users)
jdgoat
I’d say trade him now. The free agent pitching market really isn’t that good, and I’d guess he’d be the second best pitcher available after Bauer. I think they’re a lot closer to fifth place in that division than they are to first. So there’s not really any use to hold on to him and risk a poor performance which would hurt his trade value at the deadline. There will be enough teams that miss out on Bauer and need a top half of the rotation pitcher to drive up his price a bit.
FredMcGriff for the HOF
I’m not really sure why the poll had 4 options. I would’ve done should they trade him yes or no. It’s not like the Rangers are expected to do much next year. Might as well get a couple prospects for him.
bigdaddyt
Because I’m not a rangers and I believe they should just keep him.
its_happening
Keeping him will go a long long way in-hopes the Rangers can fight for that 4th place finish in the division. What a world of good that will do!
PutPeteRoseInTheHall
I wouldn’t say first, I would say the postseason
GoLandCrabs
Should have traded him 3 months ago.
erauber
Yep
DarkSide830
should have traded him 12 months ago
mlb1225
Definilty held onto their chips for far too long. Minor should have been traded last off season. Lynn should’ve been dealt last deadline or earlier.
SignWongTradeSolano
His value increased after last year, more like should’ve traded him at the deadline
DarkSide830
i mean in hindsight maybe, but the short season probably made that a no no. not like they should have expected a pandemic, but they should have figured that he would have had to be great to even maintain his value with less control and you can argue he only just did.
CursedRangers
Agreed they should ha e traded him at the deadline. More than likely, if he was traded, the Rangers would have ended up with the first pick of the draft. In some years, the 2nd pick isn’t that different than the first pick. However you can make a strong argument that by not trading him it cost the Rangers Kumar. Will be fascinating to see how Kumar’s career pans out to see just how big of a decision not moving him ends up being.
Jumping Jack Gash
No
stymeedone
It all depends on what is offered, but I don’t see the Rangers contending with him next year, and there’s no other year on his contract. There should be multiple suitors, so take the best offer.
MasterCal
If we get an impact offensive player that’s Major League ready or a year off then heck yeah. Throw in two mid level prospects and it’s a done deal
south side hit men
Good spot here for the White Sox. We have multiple pitchers below Dunning that can be put together for a trade package.
TC Zencka
That’s definitely an interesting match. Lynn was a rookie in La Russa’s last year with the Cardinals.
sf giants mania
Would u give up Koepech
south side hit men
Absolutely not giving up Kopech. Not even if Lynn would sign an extension with the Sox
ChiSox_Fan
Absolutely NOT!
tonyk
Hell no rangers blew it at deadline now they get even less for him
HBan22
Lance Lynn for Jonathan Stiever and Zack Burdi?
iang2424
They’re not going to trade for a reliever. That’s their strong part of the system. They left off multiple guys who are equal to Burdi from the 40 man.
HBan22
Fair enough, but what about Stiever? He’s a pretty solid SP prospect.
south side hit men
I’d give up Stiever and Thompson and Gavin Sheets. But that’s for a full year.
BovineCrab
They have to trade him this offseason for the best available package. If this guy starts pitching worse next season like Minor did in 2020, his value on the market and to the team tanks. For the lowly Rangers his value would become pretty close to zero because they won’t compete next year anyhow. If they keep him and it turns into a Mike Minor repeat they will have screwed themselves. If they trade him and he does great they could always re-sign him next season. If not, the Rangers at least have the peace of mind of knowing he wouldn’t have won it all for them anyway. If the Rangers keep Lynn and have nothing to show for it in 2022… That is the worst case scenario for the organization and it’s fans. I don’t see a path where that DOESN’T happen if the Rangers keep Lance Lynn. They should have traded him straight up for Drew Waters to the Atlanta Braves at the trade deadline. Waters was the top prospect offered to them and he is a high prospect. I don’t think the Braves offer that deal now.
brave new world
You are right, but you might be able to get an expanded deal to include Gallo & get waters plus Langeliars, + to pitching prospects. Might work for everyone.
RunDMC
That’s a terrible deal. Gallo was terrible offensively in 2020. He’s only had 1 season above .209 (.253 in 2019) and that was for only 70 games (before being lost to injury). You’d be paying him a compliment calling him Adam Dunn. ATL already has too much swing and miss to their game — imagine them with Gallo. And you want to give up a top-50 and top-75 prospect, in addition to 1-2 others? We still don’t know if Langeliers or Contreras is the C of the future.
Seriously, he’d be a great project for team that can refine him, not a contender.
24TheKid
Oh, we’re back to using batting average?
RunDMC
Where did you hear they were offered Drew Waters? I know they asked for either him or Pache, which is imaginable, but I can imagine that was why the deal was never done.
Waters is a top-50 prospect by most outlets (top-30 by MLB.com). 1 year of Lynn should get back a top-100 prospect with 1-2 projects.
iang2424
They should’ve traded him already but I honestly don’t know if there was a good package to get for him during the season. JD probably won’t trade him. I think the best option is trade him and pay some of the salary. May be able to buy a better prospect that way. Either way they’re going to be paying him if they don’t trade him. It’s going to be a rough year regardless if he’s there or not. If he is traded then a player like Happ would be nice as a veteran presence in that rotation.
Dorothy_Mantooth
No need to pay down any of his salary. He’s set to make less than $10M this year which is a bargain for his production. Unless they are trading him to a low budget team like Tampa, there’s no reason to offer any salary offset for him as it won’t move the prospect package much at all. The thing to remember is that he only has one year left, so he’s not going to bring back a king’s ransom, but he should be able to net the Rangers a solid major league ready SP prospect and an additional offensive prospect as well.
LordD99
They absolutely should trade him, but there is a legitimate question of when based on what’s being offered. If it’s light now, they could be better off waiting until the trade deadline. A team in strong contention might actually pay more at that point to strengthen their postseason roster.
Padres458
They didnt keep him just to trade him now.
southi
Maybe it was a factor of not getting an offer they liked before. There are probably SEVERAL more teams in the mix now, and combined with the limited financial cost, the potential prospect return has most likely only risen.
DarkSide830
if it’s someone with tangible trade value less control isnt ever less valuable in a bubble
retire21
I would say that all other things being equal, less control is ALWAYS less valuable. No?
southi
Less control as a general rule is less valuable (at least in those cases the target has positive trade value to begin with), but I think the point of my initial comment was missed. None of us know with 100% certainty what the Rangers were actually offered before. It is well within the range of possibilities that the Rangers receive an offer that they like better than any previous legitimate offers they had before.
Rob66
It’s a control vs. commitment thing. Control is good, commitment can be bad.
Brac2brac
Less control is always less valuable. Whether or not a current offer is more desirable than a prior one is circumstantial. Also, if he can still be made a Qualifying Offer ( at his current salary he would have accepted any recent QO) then an offseason trade should have more value bc the acquiring team can make a QO.
slider32
The sooner the Rangers trade Lynn the better. They have a new stadium and the second worst team in baseball. They can use an upgrade at every position. Lynn’s value will never be higher than today, If they trade him now he is the second best pitcher on the market after Bauer while only making 9 million, they should get a good return at least 2 good prospects for him.
not alkaline
Trade him to the Angels. Maybe help get Trout to the playoffs.
tristpa2
There are a very short list of players I wouldn’t give up for Lance Lynn
Vizionaire
they should re-sign choo for 3/60.
99 Captain Judge
I don’t care what the Rangers to with Lance Lynn. Just keep him as far away from the Yankees as possible.
bot
Lynn is a bit of a quagmire. He puts up ace numbers but no one is going to give Texas an ace package for his services. If someone would- he’d be long gone by now. So why take whatever u can get for him when you’re trying to put a competitive team on the field to start the season ??
He’s better than stroman and gausman no doubt. But at the same time- what could either of those teams
Spare giving up to get Lynn ?
Mrtwotone
Giggity
sf giants mania
Yes trade him to the giants for a bunch of no body’s lmao
No Soup For Yu!
Should have traded him at the deadline when his value was highest. Expanded playoff field, three game wildcards, one full year of control left. The Rangers aren’t going to magically get more for him now with the playoff field shrunk back to normal, Lynn being older and with less total control. What they were offered at the deadline was peak value and anything they get now will be of lesser value than they could have gotten. That said, no point in letting his value decline even further as it did with Mike Minor. Trade him ASAP.
Oddvark
I think they should trade him, but I wouldn’t expect a haul in return. The main reasons to give up quality MLB ready players and/or high-end prospects are (1) the player you are trading for is way underpaid (especially if the favorable contract is for multiple years) and/or (2) there are not other reasonable options to filll your team’s need at that position.
Lynn is underpaid at $9.3M, but not by a ton, and it’s only for one season.. Plus, there are still reasonable starting pitching options available in free agency, including Odorizzi, Tanaka, Quintana, Walker, Paxton, and Kluber. Lynn for one year for $9.3M is probably a better deal than you’ll get for those FA options, but not so much better than you’d give up the farm for it.
tristpa2
Lynn is a better pitcher than all the names you listed. TBH, most of those guys are 3-5 guys, not exactly going to push a team over the edge pitching wise
Oddvark
I agree that he is better (though I’m not sure he puts a team “over the edge” either). And he definitely has trade value. You are going to have to give up something to get him. I’m just saying I’m not giving up top prospects and/or good young players for that kind of improvement over what I can get in free agency.
But I could be wrong.
KamKid
Trading him now seems like the most obvious answer. The price on pitchers doesn’t seem to be down. But I do wonder if there’s value in waiting for more information. Seems hard to believe there could be fans in the stands at the moment, but if it’s still a possibility, there’s value in giving fans a reason to come to that new ballpark. You don’t necessarily need to believe you are a World Series team to put a decent enough product on the field in the short term. At least hold out on teams until they pony up a package worth giving up his short term value.
tristpa2
As an Angels fan, I’d pay through the nose for Lynn. FA Starters beyond Bauer are not very good this year, and honestly, I’d rather have Lynn than Bauer right now. The Rangers could get a tidy sum of prospects, especially with the Angels and Blue Jays aggressively pursuing pitching right now.
Roper
This wasn’t an option, but I am a Rangers fan and I would love to see the team extend him. I love his tenacity and leadership in the clubhouse. As the Rangers rebuild, he will be invaluable as a resource to prospects like Allard, Palumbo, Hearn, Cody, Benjamin, and even the next wave of Crouse, Wynn, etc. Tear up the one year-$8 million deal (not the $9.3 referenced above), and reward him with another 3/$30.
User 1104686089
This is what most of the non-Rangers fans don’t get about this situation. I am still happy to trade him if the price is right, but he is a great leader and presence for the young guys.
mrmackey
I’m a Yankees fan, and I think the Rangers should trade Lynn back home.
What do you want for him?
Perksy
Trading Lynn back home would be to the Cardinals. He’s a big hillbilly hick Midwest boy.
mrmackey
Who came to the Bronx and it became his new home.
Send our boy back home.
Dad
Hey, we knew he was a head case and let him walk. Y’all can keep him, the fastball carries at Busch
Rsox
Trade him only if you can get a decent return, if not role the dice and open the season with him on the roster. Even rebuilding teams (if thats what the Rangers are doing) need innings out of someone
davemlaw
Rangers could get more mid season but risk Lynn getting hurt.
Given his low salary and what he brings to the table (most IP in 2020) I think Rangers should move him now. I’m biased about where I want him to go but Rangers should be able to get a boat load from a team like Atlanta or White Sox. Mets could be a great fit too if they can get Dom Smith and extras.
HBan22
I see the White Sox, Blue Jays, Braves and Padres as the top fits for Lynn. Probably in that order.
Dorothy_Mantooth
The Padres make a lot of sense, given their need for a solid SP after the Clevinger news and their highly ranked farm system. I’m sure they could put together a fair package for his services. They really only need him for one season too, unless he has a dominant season.
N_ontariojaysfan
I traded him…last year at the deadline fantasy league. Great deal for both sides.
worthington
Time for Daniels to step aside.
DTDATL
They need a ton of help and aren’t close to be a contender so trade him and prepare for the future.
lowtalker1
Trade him this past trade deadline
Spare Tire Dixon
Yankees should look into an expanded deal for Lynn and Gallo. They could use a LH bat and Gallo could probably hit for good power at Yankee Stadium. The deal would probably have to include Frazier with others, so Gallo could take his OF spot. Putting Lance Lynn #2 behind Cole would improve the Yankees tremendously without breaking the bank in 2021.
Dorothy_Mantooth
If they trade both Lynn & Gallo to NY, Frazier won’t be the headline piece in that deal. They’d have to include one of their young SP prospects for sure, and probably another piece on top of that. Gallo alone could probably net Fraizer.
B-Strong
I cant get past Drew Smiley getting 11m.
B-Strong
Classic autocorrect!
LaFlamaBlanca
I mean to be brutally honest the Rangers should have unloaded both Lynn and Minor either at the deadline or during the off-season in 2019. Minor had a 7.8 WAR & Lynn was at 7.5. Personally the Rangers completely f**ked up. They only got 2 PTBNL for Minor and will probably not get much more for Lynn smh Jon Daniels should have been fired by now.
Rob66
If Kluber had been healthy, they were looking at 3 solid top starters. They had thoughts of making the playoffs. Of course the wheels fell off, but that happens sometimes.
Padres458
The team was never going to the playoffs
UnknownPoster
Just saying, I like this poll
bradthebluefish
When are the Rangers going to finally contend?
HALfromVA
A good start would be seeing Odor in a different uniform.
mrmackey
Don’t the Rangers have a good laundry service?
eephus11
Lynn has been rock solid aside from 2018 when he was moved 3 times. He just completed his 12th MLB season and has a 3.57 career ERA. It amazes me he doesn’t get more credit for his consistency and durability.
phantomofdb
Moved 3 times? He was an absolutely worthless pile of trash for the twins (only outside factor you can blame is being signed late), and then got traded to the Yankees and did marginally better. It’s an outlier season, but it’s one that also takes a potential trade partner, Minnesota, completely out of the picture. No way they’d give up anything of value after that awful season he gave them
Dad
85% fastballs…..! He’s the type who will flourish in nowhere but put him in Cardinal red he was needed and he was just another pitcher
22Leo
I’m not a Rangers fan, but I play one on TV…
its_happening
Rays should be in on Lynn to replace Morton. Twins should be in on Lynn to replace Odorizzi. Astros should be in on Lynn if they think they can contend for the division one more time. Even the Mets should be in on Lynn if they want to contend for the NL East. Lots of teams could be in on him and if the Rangers cannot capitalize on that, Daniels must go.
jim stem
Mets have trade pieces that may fit the Rangers future plans.
How about Lynn, Kiner-Falefa, LeClerc for Dom Smith, Ronnie Mauricio, a young SP and Robert Gsellman?
Smith moves right into 1B where the Rangers seem to have an inexplicable void. Kiner-Falefa becomes almost an every day catcher/3B option for the Mets. I think LeClerc May be coming up on a big contract bump, but mending from a few injuries. Gsellman can be converted back into a starter, which I think helps his arm. Mauricio gives the Rangers a true future shortstop as Andrus stats decline.
Helps the Mets now. Helps the Rangers now and in the very near future.
Ps. What’s up with all the Rangers hitting under .180?
Joggin’George
Too risky for the Mets… Smith, Mauricio and a young SP? Way too steep when they can just sign a SP, especially since Lynn would only be ours for one year, right? I don’t really think that trade makes the Mets better… plus, why even include Gsellmen in the deal? He’s no value whatsoever.
slider32
Lynn has one year left on his contract, so he will go to a team that thinks they are a contender. I don’t know if there is a real contender in the NL, the Dodgers are too good. Rangers will be looking for 2 good prospects for him.
VetteFan
Trade him ASAP so he can play for a MLB team. Rangers are a mediocre triple A team at best.