Kevin Gausman has until November 11 to decide whether to accept the qualifying offer he was issued by the Giants. Should he accept, he’ll return to San Francisco on a one-year, $18.9MM deal. That wouldn’t foreclose the possibility of a multi-year extension with San Francisco, just as José Abreu and the White Sox brokered a three-year contract after Abreu accepted Chicago’s QO last winter. Rejecting the qualifying offer might pave the way for multi-year offers from other clubs, though. Gausman and his representatives have surely been gauging the market the past few days to shape their decision.
There’s a case to be made for Gausman as the second-best starter on the open market. The right-hander pitched to a 3.62 ERA/3.09 FIP across 59.2 innings this past season. His 32.2% strikeout rate ranked eleventh in baseball (minimum 50 innings pitched), topped only by Trevor Bauer’s 36% among free agents. Gausman finished tenth overall in strikeout minus walk rate and seventh in swinging strike rate. On a per-pitch basis, only Jacob deGrom, Lucas Giolito, Kenta Maeda, Shane Bieber, Luis Castillo and Gerrit Cole generated more whiffs. Gausman truly was among the game’s elite at fooling opposing hitters.
Moreover, he’s also one of the harder-throwing starting pitchers available. Gausman averaged north of 95 MPH on his heater last season, per Brooks Baseball. He got elite results on both the fastball and his signature splitter. Gausman didn’t find a breaking ball he was comfortable using frequently, a problem that has hampered him throughout his career. That didn’t seem to matter, though, as he was highly effective regardless.
Of course, teams aren’t solely factoring in a player’s performance in his platform year. That’s all the more true in a significantly shortened season. Gausman’s only a season removed from posting a 5.72 ERA over 102.1 innings, contributing to the Reds’ decision to non-tender him last winter rather than pay him approximately $10.6MM to return in 2020. Some of the underlying metrics at the time hinted at a potential rebound but it was nevertheless a surprise to see him perform at such a high level this past season. Gausman’s less consistent track record could lead to some trepidation on teams’ parts, particularly since signing him would cost them draft compensation at the very least.
It’s also worth considering whether next winter’s market would present a more favorable environment. Teams aren’t expected to spend aggressively this winter in the wake of massive revenue losses. Next offseason might still have COVID-19 effects, and there’ll be anticipated labor uncertainty with the scheduled expiration of the collective bargaining agreement in December 2021 (although it’s possible MLB and the MLBPA broker a short-term CBA extension in the wake of the pandemic).
Gausman would be one year older next offseason obviously, but he’ll only turn 30 in January 2021. He’d still be young enough to secure a lofty multi-year deal if he accepts the qualifying offer, then backs up 2020 with another strong season. The CBA prohibits players from being offered multiple qualifying offers in their careers, so Gausman will never have to wrestle with this decision again, no matter what he decides in the coming days.
In our top 50 free agents list, the MLBTR staff predicted Gausman would indeed accept the qualifying offer. We’ll turn things over to the readership with a pair of questions: should Gausman take the qualifying offer, and will he do so?
(poll links for app users)
gausman is gau-bage. no one is going to pay him that much in FA unless he pitches well this year, and even then a lot rides on the covid. I’d almost say he’d be stupid not to take it even if he pitched better than he did based on circumstances
Why is Gausman holding out for something like a 4 for 36 outside of the realm of possibility?
Because he would be getting $19 mil for 1 year. So he would have to ask if he could do better than 3 years $17 mil after next season without a QO attached to it.. Lets look back and see he made over $9 mil coming off a mid 5 ERA season.
Big mistake by SF – foolish decision
They got a guy who pitched well for them on a one year deal. I’m sure they’re not expecting to make a push for the top at this point in the retooling so there’s really no risk that this impacts them if it blows up. Worst case, they spent 19 million on a one year contract that is gone before they are competing for the playoffs. Best case, he builds off of last season and they have a good trade chip or extension candidate. There’s not really such thing as a bad one year contract for a team in the Giants position.
Exactly. The have the money, and pitching is a need. Besides, I’m confident they’ll re-work the QO into a 2-3 year deal.
Im also amazed anyone has a problem with this…makes too much sense
ABStract, the people that have a problem either are not baseball wise enough to get it, or they’re just (and I hate to sound juvenile using this word) haters.
There is no way the Giants could have gone without offering him the QO.
It has been said already, but if he does well they can keep him if they’re doing well, or trade him if the team isn’t competing. If he regresses to the previous numbers they only have him for one season. If they sign him to a multi year deal, it won’t be at 18 mil a year, my guess closer to 14 a season so even if at worse he is a #4 it won’t be a huge overpay for them.
Hey goat, “one year contract that is gone before they are competing for the playoffs”? Your words. Please explain. Did you mean ‘competing for a title’?
They competed for the playoffs this year. Elminated final weekend. So, again, do you want to explain for us!
Did you read the entire article?
If this was a normal offseason I would expect Gausman to decline the QO, but considering no team was willing to claim Brad hand on a 10mil AAV contract, there is no way Gausman gets anything close to 18mil in free agency. Honestly surprised the Giants offered it to him considering how cheap the market will be.
He might not get 18 AAV on a multi year, but he was offered 1/18 guaranteed. Clearly the valuation on him is much higher than Brad Hand, so Brad Hand isn’t a comp. He’s just an example of one reliever not being picked up at 10MM for one year.
Gausman won’t get 3/54, but certainly he can gross more than 18MM.
There has to be more to the Brad Hand situation than just his salary.
People are talking about the financial situation of baseball but the Jays took a flyer on Robbie Ray at 8 million on a one year deal. The Giants extended a QO to Gausman. Granted, both cases they have been starting pitchers but Hand has been one of the best closers in the league for a couple years now and 10 million for a top tier closer is a bargain.
19 million is good money to prove yourself on. take it.
If Gausman declines to QO then he is a crazy person.
Especially because it would keep him in the perfect home park for good numbers next year.
So right!
I’m surprised SF doesn’t have more pitchers trying to restart their careers there
There are so many teams in need of starting pitching that I think there will be a decent market for the top few starters in FA. And Gausman may be coming off a career year, so I don’t think it would be a bad idea for him to try to capitalize on that and lock in something like 3/37 or 4/45, which I think could be available. Obviously far less AAV, but more long-term security in case of injury or performance drop-off.
Maybe he accepts the QO and tries to negotiate those kind of terms with SF, as the article suggested. But if SF doesn’t give him indications that it is interested in an extension, testing the FA market wouldn’t be a terrible idea IMHO..
This is on point. I would presume Gausman’s agent is trying to gauge the market. If there isn’t interest in a multi-year deal, then accepting the QO is an easy decision.
His agent = Kevin’s Gauge-man.
D’accord, @oddvark.
This is a great off-season for teams to build bullpens or plug multiple holes in the lineup.
The starting pitcher market is not close in the sheer depth or quality of options.
What did Sonny Gray get from Cincinnati? 3 for 30, I think? I can see him getting a comparable deal even in this environment.
If I were he, I’d decline it. Or…so I’d like to think. 😉
Man. I’d love to be a fly on the wall and hear what these agents are recommending to their clients.
19 million for six month – possibly – of just baseball work? Only in America. I would take it.
how much are Ronaldo and Messi making
Ronaldo made $37 million USD (31 million euros) in 2019. Messi made $34.2 million (26 million pounds).
@ dark side – I see your point but they’re not usually in the same conversation as Kevin Gausman…
Haha, only on MLBTradeRumors can the European soccer equivalent of Kevin Gausman be Ronaldo and Messi, LOL!
When you are one of the best 780 in the world in a field that has high demand and pays accordingly, you could make as much. Are you? Then that’s why you don’t.
I don’t know what’s dumber: thinking big sports contracts only exist in America or thinking that Baseball players only work for 6 months a year.
A little harsh, but I can’t disagree with your point
I think he turns it down and gets something like 38-42 over 3 yrs
Why? Its $19 million for 1 year. Why would he take $17-20 million total for 2 more years
Because he’s an erratic pitcher who has about a 50% chance of killing his value with a bad season in 2021. But I don’t think he’ll see any such $40M contract offers…. that’s quite a bet to place on 60 good innings for a guy who was terrible the previous year.
Because that is a guaranteed contract for three years, if he regresses in 21 he won’t see an offer near that. And he isn’t going to get a 3 year offer at 18 mil/per.
Many think it’s a no- brainer for him to accept. And I get it, that’s a nice chunk of change. However,
given his past performance, maybe he should decline and look for a 3-year deal coming off the kind of platform season he is unlikely to repeat. Look, the pandemic ain’t going nowhere, and there portends to be a labor stoppage after this season, so there is no guarantee that the market will be more favorable for him next year.
The comment re: lack of a breaking ball: Not many pitchers can live on a fastball only menu going into their mid-30’s, so a multi year contract would worry me. If he accepts, he could be trade bait late in the season if the Giants (and they won’t be) are not in the hunt in mid July.
Good move by the Giants, for one year only.
oddly enough the lack of a breaking ball has been there since the O’s drafted him. He obviously can throw it consistently or he would be a top tier starter imo.
He better take it that’s an insane AAV
Take the money and negotiate a 4 /$48MM deal or 4/$45MM deal with a big signing bonus to mitigate risk of another covid shortened season. $12Mm bonus, $6MM, $9MM,$9MM,$9MM,
I can’t imagine the Giants wanting to work out an extension with Gausman. They likely want him on another 1-year deal so the commitment isn’t long-term.
Gausman will get more money than 18.9M if he turns down the QO. He’ll probably get something along the lines of 3/45 from someone. The question is: where does he want to play?
If he wants to play in San Francisco next year, which he has indicated he would like to, then I think it behooves him to take the QO.
You are wrong Giants are working on a multi year deal. They rate Gausman after Bauer.
Well, 59 innings does not undo his career inconsistency issues. He’s had hot streaks prior within a regular season. Just so happens he had one in an abbreviated season, which can create the impression he’s turned the corner. Teams will be hesitant to believe in that. So Kevin, as I’m sure you’re reading, and will no doubt make your decision based on my advice, I’d recommend going for the most money. I know, brilliant!
1) Accept the $18.9M and go celebrate. Then go out and repeat your 2020 season over a 162-game schedule. Then you’ll have banked nearly $19M and have huge, huuuge offers awaiting, as a soon-to-be former president is fond of saying. No politics here. He does like to say huuuge.
2) Have your agent be dialing up every team before your decision to gauge your market. If you get an indication there’s like a 4/60 deal waiting, we’ll, ummm, some quick math here, uhhh, carry the one…yup, it looks like that would be something like $40M more than $19M, so yeah go for that. General financial advice, if you’ve been an inconsistent starter who would normally go begging for a job, thank your lucky COVID stars and take the extra $40M. Taking an extra $40M is always good. Gives you a nice warm feeling knowing your kids and eventual grandkids are all taken care of.
3) Now it gets a little trickier in between. If you’re thinking you’ll only get a 3/30, that is $11M more than $19M, but you can ignore my initial advice at this level. Take the QO. Yes, you are leaving $11M behind, but you’re banking $18.9M, and even if you regress, you’ll still easily find $11M over the following two seasons. No loss. Just don’t injure your arm. Regression, recoverable. Injury, bad.
So there’s my framework. No need to thank me. Won’t even ask for a percentage. Good luck. Just make sure your agent is on the phone these next few days.
Take it! This is your ‘set for life’ contract. Put it in the bank.
Yes!
I don’t see how anyone could think this is a bad deal for the Giants. Gausman played well enough to earn himself a multi-year contract this winter. He’ll command a minimum of 12-14M per year on a multi-year contract, so you’re talking at least 24M for two years.
2/24 is worse than 1/18.9, because it’s more money overall and a longer commitment. If Gausman doesn’t repeat his 2020 success, you can move on a lot sooner.
The Giants are an estimated 88M under the luxury tax threshold for 2021, and the Giants will target starting pitching, so it’s not as if Gausman is taking up money that needs to go somewhere else.
I’d guess Gausman accepts the offer.
As the saying goes “There are no bad one year deals.”
If this chump is the 2nd best SP in this year’s FA Market, it is a very weak market.
This guy is not a winner, not a leader, and not a very good pitcher..
I take it that he also kicked your dog.
@antone, laughed out loud at that one
I would argue that the handling of Gausman, by the O’s did him no favors. He needed to develop a breaking ball And didn’t/couldn’t and they gave up on him. He has 2 plus pitches.
He should take it, then go to church and light 1,800,000 candles.
Unless I was a top tier guy, I would absolutely accept the QO this year then see if I could parlay that into a longer deal like Abreu ddi. Very few teams will,be,willing to spend big money this off season on no elite players,because of so many unknowns with COVID-19 still exist.
He would be 1000% stupid to not take that money
I really hope this is a shrewd move by Farhan and that he knows he won’t accept the QO. That $19 mil could be better spent somewhere else. There are 4-5 FA Starters who could be the 2021 version of what Gausman was this year and they would surely cost less.
If Gausman does accept, he immediately becomes the Giants Ace which means we are screwed for 2021. Farhan will once again hope he starts strong and try to flip him for prospects before the deadline. The rebuild will continue with little traction since another year will have been wasted with no sure fire building blocks added. Prospects at some point have to become major leaguers and none of the Giants prospects other than Luciano look like locks.
There are rumors that the Giants could be big spenders this offseason with around $80 mil in cap space. If they sign Gausman they are down to closer to $60 and may be less inclined to sign any other large contracts. With as many holes in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen as they have, 2021 could be a huge regress for a team claiming they want to compete for the playoffs. Hold off on buying season tickets Giants fans if you are smart.
“Prospects at some point have to become major leaguers and none of the Giants prospects other than Luciano look like locks.”
If this is the case, Gausman on a one-year deal is exactly what the Giants should want: a good pitcher that’s at least half-way watchable that doesn’t require a long-term commitment and potentially block future prospects.
For what it’s worth, the Giants don’t have a lot of young pitching that’s going to be ready to go at the start of the season. I’d imagine Zaidi will call up Corry, Hjelle and a few others throughout 2021, but they’ll need some arms, and some decent ones if they expect to not be absolutely putrid.
They can easily get a glut of players for around 50-60M, including Gausman’s QO acceptance.
2 relievers for 8-10M each. Top dollar = 20M.
1 other starter at 15M = 37M (running count)
1 left-handed bench option at 4M = 41M.
That still gives them 10-20M to work with, and come in 20M under the luxury tax limit. None of those signings have to be long-term commitments, either, so they don’t have to block younger players.
The Giants are taking a calculated risk on a pitcher worth far less than $18.9M. If they can sign him to a 3/36, okay. Anything more (no more years OR money), forgettabut it. If he walks, SF gets a draft pick.
I could see a team signing Gausman a longer term contract (2-3years) if they sign another QO player prior. Assuming the price isn’t too high like (2/25 or 3/33).
The pandemic IS going somewhere starting January 20 but that may mean that major league baseball is not played again in front of fans next spring. The smart money takes the qualifying offer.