The Blue Jays brought back Robbie Ray on a one-year, $8MM deal today, but recent history suggests they could still add more to the rotation writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Davidi notes that the Jays struck early last year in signing Chase Anderson, but that certainly didn’t slow their free agent activity. The Jays do seem to be fairly well stocked in the rotation, with Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, and Tanner Roark more-or-less guaranteed to hold down rotation spots. Ross Stripling can also hang in the rotation, while Anthony Kay could get a look at some point, as could a whole host of arms from their Triple-A corps. The bullpen is stocked with former starters who can handle multiple innings at a time, which could allow someone like Pearson to see some time out there if he struggles to stay healthy while taking on more innings. That sort of strategy would make room for another arm or two if the Blue Jays like the price.
- The Red Sox aren’t far enough along in their post-Mookie retooling to make a play for top shelf free agents, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be major players in free agency. With many holes to fill and few roster spots guaranteed, there is a universe in which the Red Sox bid on a number of free agents in the non-premium range. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe runs through the free agent market by position to see where the Red Sox might be shopping. Low-cost veterans for the rotation like Tyler Chatwood, Chris Archer, or Garrett Richards could be on the docket for Boston, per Abraham.
- Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said he doesn’t expect next year to provide many starters at all who reach the 170-inning mark, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. That’s certainly an interesting marker, given that it wasn’t that long ago that 200-inning campaigns were considered the standard bearer. It’s true that the Mariners might be more conservative than most in this regard: they’re planning to field a six-man rotation in 2021. In 2019, 51 pitchers crossed the 170-inning threshold. Still, Dipoto’s projection isn’t exactly laughable – nobody registered even 100 innings in the shortened season, and it’s might be unreasonable to expect starters to jump back to pre-COVID standards.
The Blue Jays traded for Chase Anderson
Gausman getting $19 million and Ray getting $8 million is making this “teams have no money” narrative look silly. In Ray’s case, maybe it’s just a team taking advantage of the fact the market could be tough so they offered a take-it-or-leave-it contract to Ray early.
Either way, the pitching market doesn’t appear to be taking a significant COVID hit thus far.
But when Brad Hand gets released bc his $10M is too rich or even the $1M buyout. I think this year, more than ever before, it’s going to vary significantly from team to team. There’s a chance the rich get richer by signing below market deals for above average players. What if the Dodgers, or another big market, team adds Hand for 2/14? Depth could be had for a discount considering a non-covid market. This will be an intriguing offseason for sure.
Yeah, it’ll be a great exercise on where teams look to find surplus value. Perhaps Toronto saw it as a chance to get a pitcher who some thought was good enough to warrant a multiyear pact before this season for a year.
I could end up wrong, but I feel like the guys that can go through a lineup more than once will end up being valued more than relievers.
Nobody claiming Hand seems unbelievable otherwise?
Some teams are in position to afford the luxury of spending on their bullpen, but a lot of teams would be smarter to just use guys on minimum salary at such a volatile position.
I think a team has to lack pitching depth in the system, have minimal money already committed to bullpen, and be close to contending in order to justify spending big on the bullpen.
With Britton $13m as a bit of a baseline for the relief market, I think Hand could still wait things out to see close to that $10m. Britton will end up seeming overpaid seems likely. Hendriks will end up with a lower guarantee than expected perhaps.
LAD, PHI, BOS, CWS, TOR, WAS, NYM as teams that I’d guess to spend more than minimum money on their bullpen.
Super intriguing dynamics this year for sure!
filthyrich, Fascinating for sure. As fans, we need to remember this will not be a typical off-season. Re bullpens, we could see more of those 6, 7, 8 pitcher games that we saw during the playoffs. Whether teams can sustain that for a longer schedule remains to be seen. But if enough games are lopped off the schedule, teams might want to fill out their rosters with a few rookie pitchers making league-minimum to save money. Managers will then switch pitchers often in an effort to limit the damage.
As it is, fewer and fewer pitchers are throwing enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. In 2020, just 39 pitchers tossed the required 60 innings. While that might have been a bit extreme due to Covid, things are trending in that direction in the analytics, especially since 2016 when it fell to 60 (two-per-team) and continues to drop. The Dodgers have had a total of four pitchers qualify in the last five years. Alarming when you consider the quality we associate with their starting pitching.
Despite decent statistics in 2020, Hand’s peripheral’s regarding velocity, spin rate, etc., were considered bad. Since all front-office types have the same data, that might be why they all passed on Hand. Or it might be our old friend, Mr. Collusion. Revenue was obviously way down in 2020 and should be down at least somewhat in ’21. A good chance for owners to put the squeeze on players, particularly relief pitchers. A total of 134 pitchers made their big-league debuts in 2020. That trend could continue with teams opting to pay the 12th, 13th, and 14th pitchers the league-minimum instead of veterans $3 million and up. It’ll be interesting how many one-year deals there are for starters such as Ray. That $8 million is not bad for a guy who had a terrible year.
yeah but there are buyer teams out there. the Mariners are expected to pounce on this offseason of relievers BECAUSE these relievers werent picked up from waivers and can be got on the cheap this offseason. Honestky B. Hand seemsl ike a prime pickup for Dipoto.
Jays and Giants are two of the few teams below their historical spending levels.
Ray likely signed quickly because his agent knew better offers weren’t coming this offseason. Gausman got a QA and pitched well enough to deserve a multi-year deal so I hardly think he is any evidence.
I do think we have to wait and see but Ray feels more like an early, slight overpay (which is typical for FAs who sign early) from one of the few teams with money to spend than anything more significant.
the guys you are suggesting the Red Sox sign are basically garbage and not worth the $$$. I expect the Sox to TANK again like they did in 2020 and hope for another high pick. Hopefully this time Mr Bloom will actually make a decent pick instead of wasting it on a #100 type prospect
Ideally, the expanded-playoff field gives teams less of a reason to tank. Short term, that might get canceled out by pandemic-driven revenue losses. It wouldn’t be a surprise if quite a few really good players are still unsigned when spring training starts. Then a few teams will eventually break ranks and try to scoop some of them up for what they hope are bargain rates.
Yea but they have to put some guy out there to pitch. Their fifth starter is Nick Pivetta and Sale won’t be back imediatley. Who knows about Eduardo Rodriguez with his health condition. Just because they could sign one or two starters doesn’t mean they’re not tanking.
I thought the Red Sox priority was reset the tax penalty so they could continue their previous ways?
If they can win the Bauer bidding, they could be back to contention. Or very close. Richards and some bullpen depth while they’re at it?
Really a chance they push for a 2021 tank? Fine by me!
The only thing is that this year’s free agent crop doesn’t have a lot to offer. Couple guys at the top and then not much.
I’m not saying they’re going to sign the cream of the crop, but like the article says, Archer, Richards or Chatwood wouldn’t be bad nor would signing a durable innings eater.
The problem with Archer, Richards, and Chatwood is that they’re essentially reclamation projects. Low-risk, high-reward should they rebound, but not guys you want to be counting on heading into a season. Considering the Sox pitching woes, they might not be a team that can take the risk. If I were to poke a stick at one of the three, it would be Richards. Then again, the Padres really needed SPs in the post-season and bypassed him in favor of using 8 or 9 relievers per game. These guys are considered low-cost options for a reason. The Sox already have one of those guys in Pivetta, although he’s a bit younger.
Martin Perez at least made all 12 of his starts… The Red Sox need at least one starter who can be reliable and health all year. Sale, Rodriguez, and Eovaldi could have health issues….
There is ZERO chance the Red Sox are planning on tanking, they will be one of the biggest spenders this Winter! They will be players for Bauer, Swinger, Brantley, Ozuna, Hendricks, and May. They reset the lux tax, they have a ton of dead money coming off the books next year, and they are looking to capitalize in a free agent market where not many teams will be willing to spend because of the covid uncertainty.
Those guys aren’t going to get us to win. I think we tank again and prep for 2021. It comes down to pitching and Bauer is questionsble.
I agree. The market isn’t good enough to rely on. Make trades and prep for 2021. I’m not impressed with Bloom yet
the Sox only were bas this year because they wanted to duck the tax and then got unlucky with injuries to guys like Sale. they’ll probably be trying to contend again this year
They may be garbage, but the Sox have already made a notable trash pickup in the resigning of Alex Cora.
They as well keep collecting.
Bloom hasn’t had the high draft pick yet, they were #17, so the draft coming up should be interesting, can’t wait to see who he picks. I’m praying it’s pitching.
Toronto wanted RR and paid for the privilege. Bad decision IMO. Way too early in the offseason to jump at that deal.
They need a better pitcher and could have gotten one for either more money or in a trade with a team looking to cut salary. $8MM plus some prospect talent equals a much better player. NYY and Tampa probably like this deal it limits Toronto’s upside.
Ray can be a very effective pitcher. He just has to limit his walks. That is what gets him into trouble. I’d rather sign Ray to a 1-year deal than give up prospect capital to trade for a pitcher who is a little better. I’d trade prospect capital for a top of the rotation pitcher, but there aren’t going to be a lot of those available in trade. I don’t think the Jays are done adding to the rotation
Ray had an awful season overall and a poor 20 innings in Toronto. He’s got to improve just to be a decent SP. That’s not what Toronto needs. The $8MM is better spent on what they do need- SP3 preferably with upside. Not a lot on the FA market so a trade is the best option. That type of bbn pitcher is much better than Ray. Otherwise use an internal option and react at the trade deadline as needed
Ray scares me. He changed his diet and remade his body, lost lots of weight, and had terrible results. A “Dodger killer” who had no command or feel for his pitches in his one start against him. When he wasn’t walking guys he was getting pummeled. During the Dodgers telecast, Joe Davis and Orel Hershiser commented that he looked famished physically. I see that his WHIP over 51.2 innings was 1.897. He was consistently bad. Certainly not an $8 million pitcher in this market. I also thought the Jays’ acquisition of Ross Stripling was questionable as he was killing the Dodgers at the time. I’m good with the Dodgers getting 19-year-old pitcher Kendall Williams in that trade and I believe they will be getting a second player.
What are the chances of a Walker SEA reunion? We shipped him off because he was doing well and is now a FA, young and dependable/proven. Will Dipoto pounce?
I think there’s a good chance of another reunion. His wife’s from the area and he’s close with many of his 2020 teammates.
Roark isn’t guaranteed anything after the season he had.. He’ll have to win a rotation spot. If Ray can limit his walks, he will be fine. It’s not really a big gamble to sign him to a 1-year deal.
Hey Writers of MLB Trade Rumors, are you dreaming?
“jays seem to be fairly well stocked in the rotation” That’s laughable.
They have one good starter in Ryu. One. Period.
Pearson is a rookie and in time will be good[years?]. Stripling best starting days are over. Roark might be out of baseball this year because he can’t get anyone out. Anthony Kay needs to improve to be a #4 in the rotation. Merryweather is an opener or elite setup guy. And Robbie Ray loves to walk people and doesn’t know where the ball is going out of his hand. His velo is slipping and is overpaid.
Again, how are the Jays well stocked in the rotation?
Relative to the previous 2 seasons!
It’s pretty clear that any team with Stripling, Roark, and Ray in the rotation aren’t winning anything. What a joke.
Agreed.
Solid depth to get through the expected stretches where the eventual top 3 have IL stints.
By August 1st, that would likely be Ryu, Pearson and an addition to be expected between now and then.
Lot of teams going with openers, bulk guys, and straight up bullpen days with their 4/5 slots may become a new normal. Stretches of frequent doubleheaders may become a new normal.
Between Stripling, Roark, Ray, one more addition to be hopefully expected, and some combination involving Merryweather, and kids with options that are excelling, that could lead to satisfactory performance out of the 4/5 slots in the rotation.
Not great. Kinda good. Satisfactory so far.
Even relative to some other almost contenders.
Things are starting to shape up.
Two more arms better than Ray is still on the wishlist.
I’m fine if Romano and Dolis close out games, adding a big name reliever is also on the wishlist. Not a necessity, but to pull off a shallow rotation, it kind of is. Shorten these games as much as possible.
entering last year that would have been considered a really good bottom 3.
Kay is Ray minus 1-2 mph. Same guy. Ray is Kay Sr, Kay is Ray Jr.
The next signing will probably be a short term contract for a vet or a gamble, leaving the rotation as follows:
Ryu
Pearson
Roark
Ray
Kay
Thornton if healthy
Whoever they sign
Hatch is a long shot. Merryweather is turning 30 and never stays healthy. He should be lucky to be in the majors, let alone considered a starting pitcher.
Sorry Guest, Merryweather does not turn 30 until the end of the 2021 season
their options arent all crazy good but they have a rottaion and a half of guys that could probably at least hang at the major league level. it doesnt really matter how good the guys are, you can only start 5 of them.
It matters if you want to contend.
Really jimmy, you act like the Jays are done for the rest of the offseason, wakeup man it is the 1st move of the off season and it tells all other FA’s the Jays are willing to spend!!
You can wake up Jays1977, after you proved my point about Merryweather turning 30. Next season is 2021, Merryweather will be turning 30.
Blue Jays needed 2 impact starting pitchers and they overpaid for a guy who should be better but the reality is he’s a #6. We cannot project the short term future of this offseason but we can certainly be concerned.
Jaysfan…the BlueJays are willing to spend on what? Ray? lol.
This team needs elite starters like Bauer. It needs two starters of #1 or #2 caliber.
The Jays need an elite veteran CFer like Springer.
The Jays need a real 3B not some utility guy or overweight first baseman or a cast-off like Shaw used as a placeholder.
Remember the goal is to win now, not just compete longterm. When there are other teams willing to spend prospect capital to go for it then the BlueJays are mandated to do that too. Unless you want to be like Tampa Bay and compete every 15 years and win nothing.
It is time for Shapiro and Atkins and the Rogers board to put on the big boy pants and fill the Jays holes now with elite players.
Do you really think the Jays aren’t going to push for Bauer?
Do you really think he chooses the Jays over other teams offering similar?
Do you really think the Rays window is closed for another 15 years now?
Nothing guaranteed with pitching health, but they have some impressive depth remaining.
Recent WS Champs have spent prospect capital, spent big bucks, developed internally or some hybrid of these.
A trade for Greinke didn’t help the Astros. A trade for Verlander did. But something else helped them more. Tanking first. Cheating second.
Jays on the way up from the tank process.
The Astros surprised with a playoff berth, then went into the following season with a lot of questions in their pitching staff. They answered those questions. Not impossible for the Jays to follow that blueprint.
Did the trade for Paxton help the Yankees?
The trade for Stanton?
Why talk like there’s only one path to winning it all?
The Jays just need to keep committing to try developing young talent.
All the needs you suggest are gravy.
There doesn’t seem to be any #1-2 type pitchers on the trade market right now. There is really only one free agent that fits the #1-2 billing and he’s a huge troll that will sign in NY or near Hollywood most likely.
The Yankees, Mets and Angels all have higher urgency to find those big boy pants than the Jays in my opinion.
If Bauer chooses another team, what other names are you thinking for the elite starter holes?
The relationship exists between the Jays (Shapkins) and the Indians (Antonoff)…
It needs to be stated.. the Jays can pay.. but have to play their home games in Canada.. otherwise.. limbo/stagnation will persist.. Paying for Bauer would move the Jays much closer to competing in the AL East if they can add one more SP.. not an ace..but someone reliable would be needed..
Now, Cleveland has several SP’s they can trade (none named Bieber) and a possible path to moving Vlad Jr to 1B: Lindor.. The Jays have six of their top ten prospects at SS or C and can afford to move a ML OF’er..
These teams have made deals together in the past..so, the business relationship should be strong.. It’s all about what the 2021 season WILL be that could be holding these kinds of deals back..
Nobody hit 100 innings because it would be impossible. 60 games divided by 5 starters is 12 starts per pitcher. 100 divided by 12 is 8 1/3 inning average per start. I don’t think anyone was going to average nearly a complete game per start.
60 out of 160 is 37.5% so the equivalent on 200 innings would be 75
Again, the Red Sox signing a certain type of Free Agent isn’t an “either/or”, it’s “both/and”. I expect they’ll sign at least one premier free agent (puts fannies in the seats and gets NESN eyeballs), and scrum around to pick up some of the lesser lights (improves the win total).
Bloom’s ability to navigate an entirely different (for him) landscape will show a lot about Chaim Bloom. The one thing that’s absolutely certain is that; 2020 can’t happen again. It wasn’t that they were bad; they’ve been bad before. It’s that they were boring; Eck’s classic quote that they were so boring the cardboard cutouts were getting up and leaving.
Well it will be interesting to see how Bloom “navigates” roster improvements since from what was promoted by comments on this site its pretty obvious that Cora wasn’t Blooms choice and that management/owner over rode his authority and made the decision themselves. Maybe that’s true, maybe not.
So, it would seem that what he can freely do with the roster is fair game to speculate on
I am on the floor dying laffing hearing Eck sayn that!!!!!!
As A Yankees fan, I love the idea of facing Ray & Roark more, and hope the BoSox do sign Chatwood!
I’d rather see the Yankees win against solid competition, but maybe that’s just me.
Well this is one of the most interesting takes I’ve heard. Terrible, but interesting.
That is xactly the way i feel, Mo.. I didn’t like the Redsox playing a team riddled with injuries. It only counts if both teams are full squad and healthy, otherwise, it’s not fun. Baseball is supposed to be fun, right?
Whatever it takes for #28
Waste of money
Archer in Fenway just screams bad idea