At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, the upcoming offseason looks as if it will feature one of the most unique free agents in the history of baseball. Reds ace Trevor Bauer is due to reach the open market off what could be a National League Cy Young-winning season, but very few people know how he will approach his trip to free agency.
The outspoken, offbeat Bauer has mentioned in the past that he would willing to take one-year contracts throughout his career, which would be an odd turn of events for someone who should have the most earning power of all upcoming free agents. Still, based on what he said, Bauer could go that route. On the other hand, Bauer stated in September that he is “not afraid of the longer deals,” meaning it’s anyone’s guess which path the 29-year-old right-hander will choose. Indeed, Bauer added to that earlier this month when he tweeted, “I will consider all offers.”
Notably, Bauer has acknowledged plenty of teams via his Twitter page since the Reds’ playoff season ended Oct. 1. He seems willing to re-up with the Reds, who now-former president of baseball operations Dick Williams said will do all they can to retain Bauer. It’s unclear whether that’s realistic for Cincinnati, which doesn’t boast a big-market budget. Otherwise, Bauer has mentioned the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Braves, Blue Jays, Angels, Orioles and Astros on his Twitter account over the past couple weeks.
It’s probably fair to rule out the Orioles, as they’re rebuilding and Bauer has made it clear winning is a top priority. The Astros are perennial contenders, meanwhile, but there’s no love lost between Bauer and the organization. Remember, Bauer has taken several jabs at the Astros over the years, even calling them “hypocrites” and “cheaters” as recently as last offseason.
Conversely, the Dodgers, Angels and Yankees – three high-spending teams – look as if they’ll be active in the Bauer race. A native of North Hollywood, Bauer has made it no secret in the past that he’d like to suit up for the Dodgers.
“I look forward to playing for the Dodgers one day. I grew up out in Valencia, so I would love to come home,” he said (via dodgerblue.com).
While Bauer may be a luxury for a Dodgers club that’s flush with pitching, a big-money, short-term deal may nonetheless be up the club’s alley. The nearby Angels and the Yankees have more acute needs in their rotations, meanwhile, as well as the spending power to reel in Bauer. In theory, the presence of Yankees ace Gerrit Cole – whom they signed for a record nine years and $324MM just an offseason ago – could negatively affect a Bauer chase. After all, Bauer and Cole have not gotten along since their days as teammates at UCLA, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today explained back in May 2018.
“They are opposites, just such complete opposites,” former UCLA assistant Rick Vanderhook told Nightengale, who noted that Bauer is the more analytical of the two.
Despite their differences, though, Bauer has recently implied he’d consider an offer from the Yankees. He even complimented Cole after he threw a gem on short rest in the Yankees’ Game 5, season-ending loss in the ALDS against the Rays last Friday.
“Anyone who is willing to come out on short rest to put his team on his back and try and win a must win playoff game has my respect,” Bauer tweeted. “Great performance tonight.”
While that doesn’t mean he and Cole are about to become best friends, it is notable as Bauer’s free agency approaches. He’s clearly leaving most or all options on the table, though it does seem contenders that would enable Bauer to pitch on four days of rest stand the greatest chance of landing him. It remains to be seen which club will wind up as the best fit in Bauer’s mind, or whether he’ll take a short- or long-term offer, but his decision could be the most fascinating of the offseason.
These tweets he makes about teams needing pitching though,,,, made the guy has a huge ego.
Bauer keeps posting tweets directed at the Yankees. Thank he has made it very clear what team is number one on his list.
He’s smart and knows who has the biggest cheddah he also tweeted at dodgers when he saw kerschaw got scratched
goldenmisfit The Yankees aren’t the only team he’s tweeted at. I wouldn’t think too much of it. It’s probably more a light hearted fun thing just messing around with fans getting their hopes up.
He has not made it clear at all based upon his numerous tweets
He and Cole don’t get along. No shot
He’s made it clear that there are no issues between him Cole that will stop him from signing with the Yankees.
I don’t know if the Bombers are his first choice per se, but he’s smart enough to recognize that the Yankees presence in any form of a bidding war only helps Bauer.
Long time listener first time caller here ! My only prediction when it comes to Bauer is he ends up not with the angels and you can take that to the bank !! Not sure where he goes but if he takes a one year deal like he says that I’ll go with the dodgers if it’s a long term deal he is the first big get for the Mets
I’d love to have Bauer on a one year deal with the Dodgers. He’s always bet on himself by taking one year deals. Not sure if Friedman has the appetite to take Bauer, Kershaw and Betts and their contracts all in the same season. Maybe after next season if Kershaw leaves the Dodgers, and assuming Bauer takes another one year deal next season.
“He’s always bet on himself by taking one year deals”
Really MLBDodger? When did he do that?
This is his first trip to free agency. Going to arbitration the last few years is not betting on himself. It is what most players do.
Leykis listener Noe?
Oh no… I’m sorry you called the East of the Rockies line, we have to let you go. Oh dear, I’m sorry but rules are rules folks..
he’s a real gamble, either awful or real good. I like the one year deals
The most dominant playoff player of my life time is Madison Bumgarner. What made him so good was his ability to strike out everyone which lead to very few if any runs being scored.
That’s what Bauer offers. He was the best player by a mile ona pretty talented reds team. He also was the best post season pitcher this year and it would have been awesome to see him get a few more starts.
Bum only has a 7.7 k/9 in the playoffs, not bad, but pretty average. His ability to not give up baserunners is why he was so successful.
Maybe if you only look at Bauer’s 2020?
This article talked about the intimacy between Bauer and Cole from their days at UCLA. But neglected to mention the tweet Bauer put out there the night the Yankees were eliminated where he was giving glowing props to Cole regarding his performance and putting the team on his back.
No it didn’t
Short attention span for reading the article if you didn’t catch that reference. I suggest reading to the end.
As George H. W. Bush has said Bauer is Angel ready. Wouldn’t be prudent to not sign him. Arte get er done
The Angels need him in the worst way. Four reasons he goes to the Angels.
1. It sounds like he wants to be in Southern California. Angels offer the longest deal for him guaranteeing him large amounts of money.
2. He can face the Astros multiple times a year.
3. He doesn’t like Gerrit Cole. He’s not going to the Yankees, but he’s not stupid and eliminating one of the biggest spenders.
4. He’ll want to say Mike Trout’s playoff success will only happen because of himself. He gave the best player of this generation to opportunity to finally play on the biggest stage.
He goes to the Angels on a 7yr/$235M deal.
I couldn’t agree more. Angels really need to get some pitching in the worst way. As a Dodger fan I of course wouldn’t say no to even more pitching but it’s an embarrassment of riches at this point. I’d love to see the Angels make the playoffs again. Especially to give Trout some extra love.
Vin, Thanks for the love
Nice. While I enjoy a good natured regional rivalry I also respect the way the Dodgers have built their organization and realize baseball is better when they are good.
Angels need more than one pitcher is my only concern with Bauer. Stroman and one of the mid tier guys is likely going to cost just as much as just Bauer.
Ideally I’d love to sign Bauer then trade either Adell or Marsh for a young pitcher.
I will pass., always too much about Trevor.
Hope Arte says no. This kid has never been a consistent Ace, but wants to be paid as one. He is a #3 starter. 7/$140 is too much.
“LMAO. No. Billy has done a great job considering what he was handed by diPoto.”
“Since he took over for the 2016 season, Billy has rebuilt an empty farm system and a team saddled with older players and dead or over priced contracts like Hamilton, Wilson, Weaver, Aybar, and Smith and turned it into one of the younger teams in the AL filled with promising players built around a core of Trout and Rendon. Maybe if they don’t contend in 2021 he will worry, but right now Billy has no worries about his job.”
“Also fully aware that Billy has nothing to worry about after 2020. Maybe after 2021 if they don’t contend then. Arte is a smart man and he realizes that the Astros, Yankees, and Twins will win their divisions and that most tams don’t go from 72 wins to 100 wins over night. Billy will be back in 2021.”
“After the disastrous tenure of DiPoto stripping the organization of all talent below the majors league level, Eppler has the Angels organization moving in the right direction.”
“You don’t fire GMs that improve your team by 15 wins in one offseason. Billy has done a very good job so far and the offseason is not over yet.”
“They went from dead last and without a heartbeat to 14th in 3 drafts. That is incredible. Thanks for pumping up Angels fans by showing just how awesome Eppler has been.”
“Billy addressed our main need. Starting pitching. He added 350-400 innings of proven above average starting pitching. It is a 6 win improvement over our #3 and #5 slots in the pitching rotation”
Yikes…
All Dipoto has done since he’s left the Angels whose owner is the reason their farm was decimated by signing past their prime players and losing their draft picks is build a top 3 farm system and a Major league roster which is younger, cheaper, and has a brighter future. Arte was the force behind the trades in his quest for short term gains over long term sustainability.
And Dipoto has won more over the last 4 years while openly trying to retool while Arte has spent huge money thinking he can compete now.
The problem is obvious. But he owns the team so it won’t likely change.
Figures look close. Roughly some 32 mil per over 7 years.
So when he said he’d sign a 1 year deal- he wasn’t talking bout 1 year at market value. He wants to be highest paid player in league if that’s the case. So 1 year @ 40+ mil. He will get that offer this offseason.
I doubt he receives one-year offers in the $40mm range. Not due to money necessarily. But teams will also sacrifice a draft pick, for only one season? I suspect two and three year offers at minimum. I also expect he signs for 5-6 years rather than a shorter commitment.
If dodgers fall short again don’t count them out from doing so ,I thought they offered Bryce Harper a similar huge one year deal
remember they have david price , he opted out of the season. They don’t need bauer
The angels are a team people go who sign huge, huge contracts, never to be heard from again. Or seen for that matter. Totally irrelevant.
Mike Trout would like a word….
Mike Trout has a 45% name recognition. LeBron has over 90%. That’s all you need to know. The Angels are a losing irrelevant baseball team that gets zero recognition… Mike Trout or no Mike Trout.
The Angels need another expensive player, like they need a hole in the head. Bauer wouldn’t make them a playoff team next year.
If he has a good attitude Toronto should sign him.
Bigger free agent, Bauer or LeBron?
They both talk too much and are distractions via social media. Pass on both.
LeBron is a distraction?
That’s funny.
So the 2nd best NBA player ever and the best pitcher available and you’ll pass on them both because they like social media? Ok dude
I agree about Bauer but that is ridiculous to say about lebron
I believe lebron is one of the reasons the nba final ratings are down 70% from last season.
@Baseballbean with the bingo!
LeBron is extremely influential. He has been advocating for equal outcome and he got it. The NBA now has the same tv ratings as the WNBA.
I get it “throw”.
Just shut up and dribble?
Enlightened.
Nope not at all. Wait to hear all the facts instead of just jumping on the popular narrative though.
@throwinched10 nailed it right there
Bauer is in his prime, Lebron is well past his.
I was referencing LeBron making a big deal about where he was going after leaving Cleveland for the first time.
cmon, Bauer isnt even the biggest baseball free agent in the past few years.
He’ll certainly be the most unique and interesting free agent in quite awhile. Probably since back when the Indians signed Jack Parkman in 94. Not sure if you remember that signing, but Parkman put on quite the free agent traveling show before signing.
And then they trade Parkman away in the same year, busted. Ha
And to a divisional opponent no less, you don’t see that type of move that often. It seemed like the right move, it really fired up the team and getting rid of a cancerous Parkman fixed the team chemistry. And they say team chemistry doesn’t matter.
Bauer is more of an acehole than an ace.
So hoping there’s really some smoke to all of this and the Yanks are truly in on him.
Cole & Bauer would be fantastic at the top of the rotation.
Huge added bonus; many of – shall we say – a certain type of Yankee fan have said they’d stop following the Yanks if they signed him.
Don’t let the door hit you in the ass, fellas.
Bauer is a great pitcher, but he is too much of a wild card for a team to break the bank on.
“Remember, Bauer has taken several jabs at the Astros over the years, even calling them “hypocrites” and “cheaters” as recently as last offseason.”
While I fully agree that the Astros are cheaters (not to mention insufferable whiners with pathetic victim complexes, no sense of remorse or decency, etc. etc. etc.) I’m not sure exactly how they’d be hypocrites?
Did they call for the 2018 World Series title to be vacated?
If he’s willing to go 1 year then I want the yanks to offer him 1 year -30 to 35MM a year
It’ll be a way higher AAV if he goes 1 year. at least 50 million even with the pandemic
no team, not even the yankees is giving him 50 mil.
Never count out Rizzo when it comes to acquiring starting pitching. Would not be surprised if Washington is on the periphery. Now, about his bullpens…
He’s at driveline all the time. Seattle lands him as the ace that they need to contend next year.
that ain’t happening. Seattle is a long way from contending and he has the Driveline founder and several Boddy acolytes in Cincinnati if that’s a consideration along with comfort in the organization
Seattle contending? Maybe when they’re not a revolving door.
Seattle has a really bad rep due to its extremely long drought of anything resembling winning. But they are actually a lot closer than is generally know. They’re definitely getting close and have an ungodly amount of payroll space available. They are looking to compete next season, might not make it, but by 22 should be in the thick of it.
He lives in Maple Valley (Washington) so that he can work with Driveline in the offseasons, Joe. And yes, I know he’s from California.
But Seattle isn’t likely going to sacrifice a draft pick and make a massive commitment to a player with limited elite success. He’s had 1 dominant year apart from this odd & short 2020 season.
Seattle’s probably more likely to hold out and go after someone like Syndergaard next offseason. Dipoto has no problem with arms that have had TJ surgery.
Seattle isn’t a long way from contention, though. They get a boost with Kelenic and Gilbert next year. If they can address their bullpen and bring in a solid starter, such as Tai Walker (again), they’ll likely be in the conversation.
No way Bauer signs with Seattle. They don’t contend year in and year out.
They do need an ace, but they won’t land one this year. They could go get Stroman.
Mariners don’t need Stroman. By 2022 (probably mid year) they will have Gilbert, Hancock, Gonzales, Kirby, Sheffield, and Dunn as their main rotation. They will have a solid rotation for years to come.
Hancock won’t by up by midyear 2022 and Kirby is a stretch. Don’t coun’t your chickens before they hatch. They were going to have Hultzen, Walker, Paxton, and Mauerer in the past. By 2022 midyear they could trade Stroman.
Nobody should be making definitive statements.
So you’re saying there’s a chance.
He’s an awesome guy. Bauer on the Blue Jays would be a dream come true.
Reminds me of R.A. Dickey all over again.
How do you leave out him saying what’s up to the RedSox on Twitter but list all the other teams..
Bauer will end up with the Angels. There is an obvious need for LA, and he gets to go home ( not to mention if Bauer fails to produce the Yankee fans and media will roast him alive).
That is hilarious. Bauer had one good season before 2020 and this season is so small of a sample size and his competition was so bad that you can take exactly ZERO from it.
His career ERA is a touch under 4.00 He is a middle of the rotation starter. That is all.
Great point, but he did have more than one great season. Still don’t know what you’re going to get with him and this year was still a small sample size (as you mentioned). That being said, I heard the FA class wasn’t great, so he may be one of the better options. Definitely not ace material as you mention.
2018. That is it. Rest of his career was decidedly mediocre. Before this small sample size theater season in 2020, he put up a 4.24 ERA outside of the 2.21 in 2018. That was also a shortened season for him with just 27 starts.
Being the best option in a bad class doesn’t mean he should get paid like Cole or Strasburg. He is not an Ace. They are.
Good post, Koa.
(Most) teams stopped paying for what a player *has* done and started paying for what they project a player *will* do years ago. None of them care about Bauer posting a 6+ ERA in 2012-13 when he was first coming up.
You can say he’s not an ace, and that’s certainly defensible. But since he leaned in hard on his four-seamer/curve combo beginning in 2017, he has a 3.46 ERA and 3.52 FIP in just shy of 650 IP. Two of his past three seasons have been excellent, and while 2020 was “only” 11 elite starts, you can just as easily look at 2019 and say he was really “only” bad for 11 starts — his final Indians start and a pretty roller-coaster-ish ride in Cincinnati.
He’s in the 90th percentile or better in most every key Statcast category, and he averaged 30 starts per year from 2015-19.
Gerrit Cole also had “only” two elite years when he got a record deal from the Yankees — three if you want to argue his 2015 campaign, but he put up a 4.00 himself in 2016-17 before being traded.
I obviously have no stake in what Bauer gets this winter, but the approach of looking at someone’s career numbers as a means of what they’ll be paid is not one shared by any team at this point. No one cares what Bauer did from ages 21-24; they care about what they expect him to do in 2021 and beyond, and that’s what he’s going to get paid for.
Absolutely agreed on the money end. Just pointing out he is one of the better choices but of course he doesn’t deserve an overpay.
And yes, Yankees will pay for Cole down the line.
This is a good point about paying for the projection/expectations. I’ve argued this a few times myself, though I didn’t convey that well at all in the comments of this post.
I would question if there’s enough recent (positive) data given the odd circumstances (the last 2 years) for teams to project confidently and warrant ace-like dough.
I agree with you for the most part except about competition this year being bad. Why? Because David Price opted out?
His 11 starts:
DET X2 .245
MIL x3 .223
KC .244
CHC x2 .220
PIT x2 ..220
CHW .261
Not exactly offensive juggernauts he faced this year. That being said Trevor’s social media posts have me liking him better than most players just because he’s real.
Smart call is to stay in the Central to keep getting extra starts against similar competition.
Search Trevor Bauer Sports Illustrated article from 2018 or 2019, excellent feature!
All I will say is that he’s a career 3.90 ERA pitcher. Mix of great years and average years. Not sure you know exactly what you’re getting with him, especially with 2020 being the shortened season.
A SINGLE great year. A short season in 2020 so you can throw that out. The rest of his career adds up to a 4.24 ERA. A #3 starter.
#3 on a mediocre team, but on a playoff contender (whom he’d likely sign with) that might not even be a 5 (see LAD’s rotation)
Guess you’re not one of his biggest fans…..certainly he would be slotted in better than #3 on a mediocre team, not familiar with the Dodgers staff.
Allstar in 2018, winning record, generally gives up less than one hit per inning…whatever metrics you wish to look at as far as pitching, calling him a #3 on a mediocre team sounds like sour grapes!
he said he wanted a team with a proven track record and a forward-thinking training and medical staff, so he’s not going to the Angels.
Lol, I was thinking the same thing. He also said he wants to be on a team with a winning mentality.
I think he’s going to the Dodgers… and it’s sad to say because I don’t like the Dodgers, but oh well. You know what? Maybe the Mets sign him with their new-found savior’s checkbook.
I like Bauer, always striving to be better, has confidence in himself, and helps the game a ton. Might not be the best pitcher in the game (though I think he’s an ace). People argue that he’s only had two good seasons, but I think that people should look at the good more than the bad. He’s just recently started doing consistent weight lifting work, and with all of the training he does, he still doesn’t ever get injured. He has a system, and he doesn’t care if you don’t like it. He knows what he wants to do, and he knows what helps him. I like the guy, and I can see him getting 23 a year for a reasonable AAV.
“A legend in his own mind.” ( Clint Eastwood). Describes Bauer perfectly
Have to envision it first. Then accomplish it
would love to see him on the twins, but seeing how rocco has handled pitching in the playoffs the last two years, there’s no way he wants any part of that. hearing how much bauer would pitch if he had it his way would give rock a heart attack
GO ge him TWINS!!
Thank God we will have the Bauer drama this offseason. At least one saga sort of about baseball amid the onslaught of stories about Players v Owners.
I’ll take him on the Mets, but I’m not doing the Twitter ego dance with him. I have my dignity (not much of it, but still).
Phillies fan here shea….gave you the upvote for your last sentence….
I think he gets offers of up to 7 years/$300M and I think he goes with like a 4 year/$200M deal.
So you really think he would leave $100 mill on the table? When he’ll be in his mid 30s for his next contract?
You seriously think Bauer is going to be MLB’s first $50 million per year player?
Don’t discount the White Sox.
Phillies? With Arietta coming off the books, if they don’t allocate that money to resigning JT, could see them doing a similar short term overpay to Bauer.
God i hope not
What team (besides the Rays) would be first to start using a 4 man pitching staff? I’m thinking Orioles or Blue Jays. Orioles because.. well… they would probably try anything, especially with a younger manager. Blue Jays because they just don’t have a strong 1-5, and they’re competitive so why not try to have your best pitchers on the mound more often?
Rays dont use a 4 man staff, its 4 and a BP day.
good luck to any of the other 29 teams, but ill say it again…i dont want him. beyond the personality, he’s never been effective from year to year. i wouldnt feel good with length or aav on him.
Tell us what team you are the GM for with that statement? Glad we all know you don’t want him on your team!
My guess is he will attract a lot of attention being pretty much the best arm available in 2021 given a 2020 year where pitchers were going down with TJ surgery almost every day….his interest in a 1 year contract will be very attractive to at least half the teams in the league.
Look at dak Prescott “betting on himself” and not signing the long term deal. Bauers arm could give out in two years and cost himself 100$ million dollars. I think he’ll realize he has to sign a long term deal.
True, but he also already has more than $40MM in earnings between his draft bonus and career salaries — before even accounting for whatever he’d be guaranteed on a one-year deal. And it’s not as though even if he bombed in 2021, he’d be relegated to league-minimum status.
No one wants to cost themselves $100MM+, but it’s a whole lot easier to take that risk when you’re sitting on over $50MM in lifetime earnings.
If anyone is going to leave that much on the table it’s Trevor. Following his vlogs and videos, he’s a pretty simple dude and I don’t think the extra 100million will entice him unless it’s a situation he really wants to be in. He’s made 40 and could probably quit today and have no worries and never look back. I don’t see him as the Harper type where every dollar matters for ego.
This guy is a “Mets Classic”
Great mini-season. Otherwise, previously not very impressive. Worth a one or two year deal.
A one year deal with the A’s to boost his ego even further and win himself a ring. If he pitched in Oakland, I’d expect no less than 25 wins under his belt.
I’ve been told since they were UCLA’s One-Two Punch (Bauer being the Friday Night guy, Cole their Saturday) and am still to this day; Bauer has nastier stuff, a more complete pitch repertoire, and studies the game much deeper. For him to see Gerrit Cole get the insane money he got last offseason, I think he’d be crazy not to shoot for the moon now —8 to 10 years at roughly $30 per. He won’t reach the numbers Cole got, that were helped by his dominant Astros tenure where he lit up the opposition in October after a 300k season… But he could, and should, get close. And assuming he has solid representation, they’ll do all the convincing it takes to get a $300 million deal as opposed to one year/$40+ million. The risk of ANYTHING happening and leaving a quarter of a BILLION on the table? Not even Trevor Bauer can talk Trevor Bauer into something so dumb.
I don’t see a team giving him an 8-10 year deal because he’s so offbeat. That’s a very long and expensive commitment to the baseball equivalent of a high-maintenance “girlfriend” who might turn into a bunny boiler. Second, his best season is this 60-game season. He can win the Cy Young, but it’s not going to be viewed the same as doing it over 162 games. Had a 4.50 ERA in 2019. Was very good in 2018, was viewed as an underperformer the years prior. So who is Trevor Bauer? Cole had the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels all bidding on his services, helping his market. I don’t see either of the two formers teams entertaining a bid for Bauer. The Angels should.
He might want to stay near Derek Johnson. That seems to be the variable that turned his career around to me and to Sonny Gray
Wanting to pitch every fourth day will throw the rest of the rotation out of whack. No contending team will do that. Well, maybe the Rays, but the Rays won’t pay.
Phillies 2 years 150M, stupid money.
It’s not my money….why not 2 years 150 mil. The owner should just pay the luxury tax. 75 mil a year sure leaves a lot of money to resign realmuto. Just dumb.
Angels…gets him back to LA.
The problem is that he’s kinda a Douche.
He seems to prefer an atmosphere where there is less attention (headlines) his antics and more appreciation of his effort.
I can’t see him in a NY, Boston or Chicago environment. Small market ace fits his ‘big fish/small pond’ personality.
Those numbers are insane. 7 and 300 after this year’s finances. Get real. 43 mil a year for a 7 years fora a guy who’s 30 in his first free . That’s never going to happen.