Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for ten years. This winter, due to the pandemic and 60-game MLB season, there’s more uncertainty than ever with arbitration, as I explained here.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players – a method I hope to illustrate with examples later this winter. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, I should note that even in a normal year, our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
This winter, those involved in the process do not know how arbitration will account for the 60-game season, nor is there an agreement in place between MLB and the MLBPA on how to address it. Many cases may end up getting resolved in a hearing room. To reflect that uncertainty, we’re providing three projections for each player:
- Method 1: Applies model directly with actual statistics from this 60-game season
- Method 2: Extrapolates all counting stats to would-be 162-game totals. One home run becomes 2.7 home runs.
- Method 3: For non-first-time eligibles, finds the raise they’d get in a 162 game season, then gives them 37% of that raise
Keep in mind that with a potential record number of non-tenders, many of these players will be released by December 2nd.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.
Angels (11)
- Justin Anderson – $700K / $700K / $700K
- Matt Andriese – $1.8MM / $2.8MM / $1.9MM
- Dylan Bundy – $5.9MM / $9.8MM / $6.8MM
- Andrew Heaney – $5.0MM / $8.0MM / $5.7MM
- Mike Mayers – $800K / $1.5MM / $800K
- Keynan Middleton – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $900K
- Shohei Ohtani – $2.1MM / $3.0MM / $2.1MM (using hitter model)
- Felix Pena – $800K / $1.3MM / $800K
- Noe Ramirez – $1.1MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
- Hansel Robles – $3.85MM / $4.1MM / $3.9MM
- Max Stassi – $1.8MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM
Astros (3)
- Carlos Correa – $8.0MM / $10.2MM / $8.8MM
- Aledmys Diaz – $2.8MM / $3.1MM / $2.8MM
- Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.7MM / $7.0MM / $5.2MM
Athletics (10)
- Chris Bassitt – $3.1MM / $5.6MM / $5.5MM
- Mark Canha – $5.4MM / $8.2MM / $6.1MM
- Matt Chapman – $2.9MM / $4.3MM / $2.9MM
- Tony Kemp – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
- Sean Manaea – $4.2MM / $6.4MM / $4.7MM
- Frankie Montas – $1.6MM / $2.4MM / $1.6MM
- Matt Olson – $3.5MM / $6.4MM / $3.5MM
- Chad Pinder – $2.2MM / $2.4MM / $2.2MM
- Burch Smith – $600K / $800K / $600K
- Lou Trivino – $900K / $1.1MM / $900K
Blue Jays (3)
- A.J. Cole – $800K / $1.1MM / $800K
- Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7MM / $5.3MM / $2.7MM
- Travis Shaw – $4.2MM / $5.4MM / $4.5MM
- Ross Stripling – $2.5MM / $3.7MM / $2.7MM
Braves (8)
- Johan Camargo – $1.9MM / $2.3MM / $1.9MM
- Grant Dayton – $900K / $1.0MM / $800K
- Adam Duvall – $4.4MM / $7.1MM / $4.7MM
- Max Fried – $2.4MM / $4.6MM / $2.4MM
- Luke Jackson – $1.9MM / $2.1MM / $1.9MM
- A.J. Minter – $1.1MM / $1.6MM / $1.1MM
- Mike Soroka – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
- Dansby Swanson – $4.3MM / $8.3MM / $5.0MM
Brewers (10)
- Dan Vogelbach – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
- Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM / $3.8MM / $2.8MM
- Alex Claudio – $2.0MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
- Ben Gamel – $1.7MM / $2.1MM / $1.7MM
- Josh Hader – $4.5MM / $6.8MM / $5.1MM
- Corey Knebel – $5.125MM / $5.125MM / $5.125MM
- Omar Narvaez – $2.725MM / $3.1MM / $2.9MM
- Manny Pina – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.0MM
- Brandon Woodruff – $2.3MM / $4.5MM / $2.3MM
- Jace Peterson – $800K / $900K / $700K
Cardinals (6)
- Harrison Bader – $1.2MM / $1.7MM / $1.2MM
- John Brebbia – $800K / $800K / $800K
- Jack Flaherty – $2.2MM / $3.0MM / $2.2MM
- John Gant – $1.5MM / $1.9MM / $1.5MM
- Jordan Hicks – $900K / $900K / $900K
- Alex Reyes – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
Cubs (12)
- Albert Almora Jr. – $1.575MM / $1.575MM / $1.575MM
- Javier Baez – $10.0MM / $11.9MM / $10.7MM
- Kris Bryant – $18.6MM / $18.6MM / $18.6MM
- Victor Caratini – $1.2MM / $1.6MM / $1.2MM
- Willson Contreras – $5.0MM / $7.4MM / $5.6MM
- Ian Happ – $2.5MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
- Colin Rea – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM
- Kyle Ryan – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.2MM
- Kyle Schwarber – $7.01MM / $9.3MM / $7.9MM
- Ryan Tepera – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.1MM
- Dan Winkler – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $900K
- Jose Martinez – $2.1MM / $2.3MM / $2.1MM
Diamondbacks (5)
- Caleb Smith – $1.3MM / $1.6MM / $1.3MM
- Junior Guerra – $2.7MM / $3.3MM / $2.8MM
- Carson Kelly – $1.3MM / $1.8MM / $1.3MM
- Luke Weaver – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM
Dodgers (7)
- Scott Alexander – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
- Austin Barnes – $1.4MM / $1.7MM / $1.3MM
- Cody Bellinger – $11.5MM / $15.9MM / $13.1MM
- Walker Buehler – $2.3MM / $3.1MM / $2.3MM
- Dylan Floro – $900K / $1.2MM / $900K
- Corey Seager – $9.3MM / $15.0MM / $10.4MM
- Julio Urias – $1.6MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM
Giants (9)
- Daniel Robertson – $1.2MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
- Tyler Anderson – $2.4MM / $4.3MM / $3.7MM
- Alex Dickerson – $2.0MM / $3.3MM / $1.8MM
- Jarlin Garcia – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
- Trevor Gott – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
- Reyes Moronta – $800K / $800K / $800K
- Wandy Peralta – $1.0MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
- Darin Ruf – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
- Austin Slater – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
- Donovan Solano – $2.2MM / $3.8MM / $2.3MM
Indians (7)
- Austin Hedges – $3.0MM / $3.1MM / $3.0MM
- Adam Cimber – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
- Delino DeShields – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $2.1MM
- Francisco Lindor – $17.5MM / $21.5MM / $19.0MM
- Phil Maton – $700K / $1.0MM / $700K
- Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
- Nick Wittgren – $1.4MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM
Mariners (3)
- J.P. Crawford – $1.3MM / $2.4MM / $1.3MM
- Mitch Haniger – $3.0MM / $3.0MM / $3.0MM
- Tom Murphy – $1.6MM / $1.6MM / $1.6MM
Marlins (9)
- Jesus Aguilar – $3.6MM / $6.1MM / $3.9MM
- Jorge Alfaro – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
- Brian Anderson – $2.2MM / $4.3MM / $2.2MM
- Garrett Cooper – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.5MM
- Yimi Garcia – $1.4MM / $1.8MM / $1.4MM
- Ryne Stanek – $800K / $800K / $800K
- Jose Urena – $3.8MM / $4.2MM / $3.9MM
- Richard Bleier – $1.1MM / $1.5MM / $1.1MM
Mets (13)
- Guillermo Heredia – $1.4MM / $1.5MM /$1.3MM
- Michael Conforto – $9.0MM /$13.6MM / $10.1MM
- J.D. Davis – $1.7MM / $2.9MM / $1.7MM
- Edwin Diaz – $5.1MM / $6.5MM / $5.6MM
- Robert Gsellman – $1.2MM / $1.4MM / $1.3MM
- Seth Lugo – $2.2MM / $3.1MM / $2.4MM
- Steven Matz – $5.0MM / $5.3MM / $5.1MM
- Brandon Nimmo – $3.0MM / $5.2MM / $3.3MM
- Amed Rosario – $1.8MM / $2.6MM / $1.8MM
- Dominic Smith – $1.9MM / $3.6MM / $1.9MM
- Noah Syndergaard – $9.7MM / $9.7MM / $9.7MM
- Miguel Castro – $1.3MM / $1.8MM / $1.3MM
- Chasen Shreve – $900K / $1.1MM / $800K
Nationals (3)
- Joe Ross – $1.5MM / $1.5MM / $1.5MM
- Juan Soto – $4.5MM / $8.5MM / $4.5MM
- Trea Turner – $9.4MM / $16.6MM / $10.8MM
Orioles (6)
- Hanser Alberto – $2.3MM / $4.1MM / $2.6MM
- Shawn Armstrong – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
- Trey Mancini – $4.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.8MM
- Renato Nunez – $2.1MM / $3.9MM / $2.1MM
- Anthony Santander – $1.7MM / $3.0MM / $1.7MM
- Pedro Severino – $1.4MM / $2.3MM / $1.4MM
- Pat Valaika – $1.1MM / $1.9MM / $1.1MM
Padres (8)
- Dan Altavilla – $700K / $900K / $700K
- Zach Davies – $6.3MM / $10.6MM /$7.2MM
- Greg Garcia – $1.6MM / $1.7MM / $1.6MM
- Dinelson Lamet – $2.3MM / $4.6MM / $2.5MM
- Emilio Pagan – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
- Luis Perdomo – $1.1MM / $1.2MM / $1.0MM
- Tommy Pham – $7.9MM / $8.1MM / $8.0MM
- Matt Strahm – $1.6MM / $1.9MM / $1.6MM
Phillies (6)
- Seranthony Dominguez – $900K / $900K / $900K
- Zach Eflin – $3.3MM / $5.5MM / $3.7MM
- Rhys Hoskins – $3.4MM / $5.5MM / $3.4MM
- Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM / $1.5MM / $1.0MM
- Hector Neris – $4.8MM / $6.4MM / $5.3MM
- Vince Velasquez – $3.8MM / $4.8MM / $4.0MM
Pirates (15)
- Josh Bell – $5.1MM / $7.2MM / $5.7MM
- Steven Brault – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
- Kyle Crick – $800K / $900K / $800K
- Michael Feliz – $1.1MM / $1.1MM / $1.1MM
- Adam Frazier – $3.3MM / $5.2MM / $3.7MM
- Erik Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.9MM / $1.2MM
- Chad Kuhl – $1.3MM / $2.2MM / $1.4MM
- Colin Moran – $1.9MM / $3.3MM / $1.9MM
- Joe Musgrove – $3.2MM / $4.4MM / $3.4MM
- Jose Osuna – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
- Richard Rodriguez – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.1MM
- Jacob Stallings – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
- Chris Stratton – $800K / $1.2MM / $800K
- Jameson Taillon – $2.3MM / $2.3MM / $2.3MM
- Trevor Williams – $3.2MM / $4.6MM / $3.5MM
Rangers (4)
- Joey Gallo – $4.7MM / $6.8MM / $5.3MM
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – $1.2MM / $2.3MM / $1.2MM
- Rafael Montero – $1.4MM / $2.5MM / $1.4MM
- Danny Santana – $3.6MM / $3.6MM / $3.6MM
Rays (8)
- Jose Alvarado – $1.0MM / $1.1MM / $1.0MM
- Yonny Chirinos – $1.6MM / $1.8 / $1.6MM
- Ji-Man Choi – $1.6MM / $2.1MM / $1.6MM
- Tyler Glasnow – $2.8MM / $5.1MM / $3.2MM
- Manuel Margot – $2.8MM / $3.6MM / $2.9MM
- Hunter Renfroe – $3.6MM / $4.3MM / $3.7MM
- Joey Wendle – $1.6MM / $2.7 / $1.6
- Ryan Yarbrough – $2.2MM / $3.6MM / $2.2MM
Red Sox (7)
- Matt Barnes – $3.7MM / $5.7MM / $4.1MM
- Ryan Brasier – $1.0MM / $1.6MM / $1.0MM
- Austin Brice – $700K / $900K / $700K
- Rafael Devers – $3.4MM / $6.3MM / $3.4MM
- Kevin Plawecki – $1.6MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
- Eduardo Rodriguez – $8.3MM / $8.3MM / $8.3MM
- Ryan Weber – $900K / $1.5MM / $900K
Reds (9)
- Brian Goodwin – $2.7MM / $3.6MM / $2.7MM
- Curt Casali – $2.0MM / $2.4MM / $1.8MM
- Luis Castillo – $3.0MM / $5.8MM / $3.0MM
- Amir Garrett – $900K / $1.4MM / $900K
- Michael Lorenzen – $3.8MM / $4.4MM / $4.0MM
- Tyler Mahle – $1.5MM / $2.5MM / $1.5MM
- Robert Stephenson – $600K / $600K / $600K
- Jesse Winker – $2.0MM / $3.4MM / $2.0MM
- Archie Bradley – $4.3MM / $5.7MM / $4.7MM
Rockies (13)
- Daniel Bard – $1.2MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
- David Dahl – $2.5MM / $2.7MM / $2.6MM
- Elias Diaz – $700K / $1MM / $850K
- Jairo Diaz – $800K / $1.2MM / $800K
- Carlos Estevez – $1.5MM / $2.3MM / $1.5MM
- Kyle Freeland – $3.5MM / $5.5MM / $3.9MM
- Chi Chi Gonzalez – $1.2MM / $1.2MM / $1.2MM
- Jon Gray – $5.6MM / $6.5MM / $5.9MM
- Ryan McMahon – $1.7MM / $2.8MM / $1.7MM
- Antonio Senzatela – $2.2MM / $4.9MM / $2.2MM
- Raimel Tapia – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.5MM
- Tony Wolters – $1.9MM / $2.2MM / $2.0MM
- Mychal Givens – $3.4MM / $4.3MM / $3.6MM
Royals (9)
- Franchy Cordero – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
- Hunter Dozier – $1.9MM / $2.9MM / $1.9MM
- Maikel Franco – $4.5MM / $8.0MM / $5.0MM
- Jesse Hahn – $1.1MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
- Jakob Junis – $1.5MM / $1.7MM / $1.5MM
- Brad Keller – $2.4MM / $4.3MM / $2.4MM
- Adalberto Mondesi – $2.1MM / $3.8MM / $2.1MM
- Jorge Soler – $7.4MM / $9.2MM / $8.0MM
- Glenn Sparkman – $600K / $600K / $600K
Tigers (9)
- Matthew Boyd – $5.5MM / $7.8MM / $6.2MM
- Jeimer Candelario – $1.7MM / $3.3MM / $1.7MM
- Jose Cisnero – $900K / $1.3MM / $900K
- Buck Farmer – $1.4MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
- Michael Fulmer – $2.8MM / $3.2MM / $2.9MM
- Niko Goodrum – $1.6MM / $2.5MM / $1.6MM
- Joe Jimenez – $1.0MM / $1.7MM / $1.0MM
- Jacoby Jones – $2.2MM / $2.8MM / $2.0MM
- Daniel Norris – $3.0MM / $3.4MM / $3.1MM
Twins (7)
- Jose Berrios – $4.8MM / $7.5MM / $5.3MM
- Byron Buxton – $4.4MM / $5.9MM / $4.1MM
- Tyler Duffey – $1.5MM / $2.6MM / $1.7MM
- Mitch Garver – $1.8MM / $1.9MM / $1.8MM
- Taylor Rogers – $4.8MM / $6.9MM / $5.3MM
- Eddie Rosario – $8.6MM / $12.9MM / $9.6MM
- Matt Wisler – $1.1MM / $1.8MM / $1.1MM
White Sox (7)
- Adam Engel – $1.0MM / $1.4MM / $1.0MM
- Jace Fry – $800K / $1.0MM / $800K
- Lucas Giolito – $2.5MM / $5.3MM / $2.5MM
- Reynaldo Lopez – $1.7MM / $2.2MM / $1.7MM
- Evan Marshall – $1.3MM / $1.9MM / $1.4MM
- Nomar Mazara – $5.6MM / $5.9MM / $5.7MM
- Carlos Rodon – $4.5MM / $4.5MM / $4.5MM
Yankees (11)
- Luis Cessa – $1.1MM / $1.3MM / $1.1MM
- Clint Frazier – $1.6MM / $2.6MM / $1.6MM
- Chad Green – $1.5MM / $2.2MM / $1.6MM
- Ben Heller – $700K / $800K / $700K
- Jonathan Holder – $900K / $1.0MM / $900K
- Aaron Judge – $9.2MM / $10.7MM / $9.3MM
- Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM / $2.0MM / $1.3MM
- Gary Sanchez – $5.1MM / $6.4MM / $5.5MM
- Gleyber Torres – $2.5MM / $3.4MM / $2.5MM
- Giovanny Urshela – $3.5MM / $5.2MM / $3.5MM
- Luke Voit – $3.7MM / $7.9MM / $3.7MM
Now that is just THE MOST AMAZING feature we have here at MLB TR. Thanks a lot!
Agree. Great stuff.
I thought Gary Sanchez was looking at a $10m number. Judge is another who’s numbers are loaded heavily on his earliest work.
I agree that Sanchez is living off his legend, so to speak. But Judge, despite his injuries, ranks 22nd in fWAR since 2018 with a 10.7 fWAR that ranks him above Goldschmidt, LeMahieu and Harper.
Last year, he had the same fWAR in 102 games as Albies, Harper and McNeil, and Albies played 160 games and Harper played 157. Judge’s 141 wRC+ matched Rizzo, Bogaerts and Moncada, and bested Martinez, Freeman, Altuve, Semien, Sano, Soler, LeMahieu and Betts.
Aaron isn’t a one-dimensional slugger; he’s also an elite defender and a plus base runner. The only limitation on him is his ability to stay healthy. Admittedly, that’s a significant limitation; but if he’s healthy, he’s an elite player.
I choose not to rely on saberstats. Judge is simply off the field too much of the time.
So I’m guessing you reject the saberstat case for Dewey belonging in the HOF?!
Evans played at least 140 games 11/19 seasons, 15/19 seasons at least 120 games, and he played at least 100 games 18/19 seasons.
BA .272
OBP .370
OPS .840
OPS plus 127
Golden Glove 8 times
Yes, HOF IMO and he was on the field the vast majority of the time.
How about conventional stats? Since 2018, Judge ranks 14th among qualified players with a .536 SLG and 14th with a .381 OBP.
It’s reasonable to bail on Judge if you think he’s injury-prone and won’t be able to stay on the field, and I imagine the Yankees’ front office is pondering that.
But when you say Judge’s “numbers are loaded heavily on his earliest work,” that applies only to cumulative production numbers because of his limited at-bats. When he’s been on the field, he’s been an elite player.
In 2019, he led the majors with an average exit velocity of 96 MPH. That number doesn’t depend on sabermetrics or subjective judgments from official scorers; it’s just a reading from a radar gun. Since 2018, he’s led the majors in hard-hit ball % and was second to Yelich in HR/FB %.
That’s nice. I’m not arguing for or against Evans. Don’t really have strong feelings about his case, just noting that the strongest argument for him comes from the analytics/saber types that the poster questioned, although we can guess with confidence that’s not why he says he has an issue with “saberstats.”
I will say Evans’ case is much stronger than the overrated Jim Rice’s, whose election is regarded as one of the worst in recent memory by the BBWAA. A campaign by the Red Sox got the malcontent Rice elected. I’m surprised in this day and age something like that still worked, although it was 11 years back.
When you look at Dwight Evans defense, power, OBP, OPS, he certainly compares favorably to others who are already in. He was pre-steroid era, so the HR numbers need to be considered differently. I watched him play his entire career countless games and IMO he is worthy.
What the poster of the comments about Judge I will leave others who watch NYY to decide.
Fascinating!
If nationals are rebuilding- be a good season to shop turner.
No way the Nationals rebuild, with so much money tied into Max, Strasberg, Corbin, they will be :ALL IN in 2021.
I can’t imagine method one would come into play. “You only hit 10 home runs this season” would be seen by an impartial arbiter as a ridiculous argument seeing as it wasn’t a full season and would’ve projected out to 27 homers over the course of a normal 162 game slate.
players took tremendous risks playing in pandemic. they should be certainly rewarded well.
Cuz – They already are rewarded…..it’s called a pay check (many times that if none mlb players).
Target and Costco employees have more contact with hundreds of people per day more than mlb players
Yet, giving credit for stats not earned also doesn’t make sense.
Well done. Thanks!
“This winter, those involved in the process do not know how arbitration will account for the 60-game season, nor is there an agreement in place between MLB and the MLBPA on how to address it. “. I’m kinda flabbergasted this wasn’t decided before actual play resumed.
We might never have had a season if they had to figure that out before the start of the season. That just brings my mind back to May and June and how it seriously looked like we might not have a season. Crazy.
Isn’t Mike Foltynewicz arbitration eligible for one more season? Or did his non-roster stint impact that? I assume he’ll almost assuredly be a DFA, so likely moot. I’m curious what the projection would be for his cost, though.
He was already DFA’ed after two starts and outrighted off the 40-man roster. Only 40-man players are eligible for arb.
Folty can and assuredly will elect free agency once the Braves’ postseason is wrapped up.
I meant to say non-tendered vs. DFA, but thank you for the reply. I didn’t realize non-forty man guys weren’t arb eligible. That answers my question and clears that up for me.
Me too, actually. Informative.
Love this. Would love to see something similar with team payroll but there are probably too many unknowns.
Which teams have a realistic chance of dodging the competitive balance tax in 2021 and 2022?
Pirates and Rays
Spotrac.com
All teams have a great chance, even the Yankees at staying undre the line
Thank you! For the Brewers you are missing Jace Peterson who is in the third year of arbitration.
Big question is what are the Cubs going to do about Kris Bryant. My money is on them trading him but I could see team scoffing at trading anything of value for him AND paying him nearly 20 million dollars. I’m not even sure if teams would be lining up to take a 18.6 million dollar flyer on him based on this season. If would be one thing if stats suggested some bad luck but his stats suggested he actually put up better numbers than he should have which is absolutely terrifying.
Which means the Cubs could possibly non-tender Bryant unless they receive two or three lottery picks for him.
Others the Cubs probably non-tender:: Almora, Kyle, Martinez, the pitchers (maybe they tender Tepera).
be ridiculous to non tender him
Although it is highly doubtful the Cubs will non-tender him, it’s not out of the question. Anyone who thinks it is doesn’t understand the payroll issues the Cubs have backed themselves up against.
Odds are the Cubs will aggressively try to move Bryant in the offseason and will eventually take what they can get with him. I don’t think Epstein plays chicken again, he will deal Bryant early even if he doesn’t think it’s the best return.
yes, it is. someone will take a chance on him. in fact, most teams would.
I don’t see “most teams” as willing to chance on him… The majority of the contenders are set at third base or if they are not, cannot absorb that much salary. It’s kind of a similar situation as it was last year where only the Braves and Nationals may have interest… perhaps the Rangers but if I remember correctly they desire to cut salary.
I bet a team like the Tigers would take a chance on him banking that maybe a change of scenery and some non pressure baseball will once again bring out the talent in him. I mean the guy won ROY and MVP so he hadn’t just forgotten how to play the game! And next year the Tigers only have 1 single albatross contract (oh Miggy!) and can afford to take a one year gamble that he will enjoy playing on a youthful team and perhaps tap into what he once was. Thoughts?
Golden Spikes award
AAA Player of the Year
ROTY
MVP 4 straight years. No one will likely do that again. No one did it before Bryant.
No way Schwartber gets non-tendered, not at roughly 8 million and based on his advanced stats.
I strongly doubt the Cubs will non-tender Bryant but given the payroll uncertainty I don’t think it’s completely without discussion. The Cubs need to change their offensive approach and dynamic. I think this is the year Epstein finally bites the bullet and meets the Royals asking price for Merrifield. He is exactly what the Cubs need at the top of the line up. Another guy I hope the Cubs pursue (since I believe he will be non-tendered) is Tommy Pham (assuming he is alright after being stabbed).
Almora 100% will be non-tendered.
Merrifield would be a close to perfect add for the Cubs this offseason is every in the lineup and financial cost, but will cost some good young prospects which is something they will have to think long and hard (That is what she said!) about, as it is likely the Cubs FO tries to retool in 2021.
.
I just don’t know the Cubs have the pieces to make a trade, will likely need to bring a 3rd team in due to Cubs lack of young pitching in the minors that are worth anything and Royals have said in the past they want close to MLB ready pitching in any deal.
Maybe work out a deal that can get the Yankees involved, they could use Salvador Perez if Yankees are willing to deal Garcia or Schmidt. The trade would be complex and a lot of moving parts on all 3 sides to make it work but everybody can get their needs.
Yankees get: Schwaber and Perez and Others (maybe Staumont?)
Cubs get; Merrifield that is about it.
Royals: get Garcia or Schmidt, Hoerner and more.
Just spit balling but likely way off.
I believe if the Cubs make Marquez a center piece then they can land Merrifield as much as I do not want to deal Marquez.
Marquez and Amaya most likely gets the deal done, maybe another small piece. Teams just are not giving up the Quintana package anymore and every GM knows it. If the Royals hold out on something bigger then they will lose Merrifield to a QO in a couple years.
I think if you can trade Bryant and hopefully still land a quality prospect in return you have to do it. Merrifield has a 4 million AAV, trading Bryant and adding Merrifield would allow the Cubs to spend roughly 35 million in the free agent market. That would allow us a guy like Stroman (15 million AAV) and Pham (6 million AAV) assuming Pham in non-tendered. The Cubs could then add another reclamation piece in the pen like Jeffers was for us last year and La Stella or just another quality bullpen arm like Doolittle.
The Royals should trade Merrifield, as they suck and he provides no value on a bad team, but I’m not sure their team management would get rid of him yet. Also, there is no way in hell Tommy Pham gets non-tendered. The Padres value his contributions heavily. His struggles this year were injury related, and he was great in the playoffs.
@drascoo36 why on earth would Tommy Pham be non-tendered? San Diego specifically got him because he was controlled through ‘21. I cannot imagine them trading a top 100 prospect for a guy and then non-tendering him the next year.
Even if he had a disappointing year with starting slow and then his injury, SD is going to 100% pony up the $8M to keep him because that’s a better alternative than anything else they have for LF and if he performs like his 2019 self there’s a ton of surplus value to be had.
No way the Cubs trade Marquez. Not to be too harsh, because we’re just sharing opinions here, but trading Marquez and Amaya for a player on the wrong side of 30 would be really silly.
For a player LIKE Merrifield, why not trade Darvish (2021 – 22 mil., 2022 – 19 mil., 2023 – 18 mil.) to the Rays for Kiermaier (2021 – 11.5 mil., 2022 – 12 mil., 2023 – 13 mil.), along with RHP Shane Baz and 2B / SS Xavier Edwards. Edwards is faster and younger. Edwards and Baz both should be ready in 2022 at about the same time Davis, Marquez, and Amaya will be ready. I think the Cubs should consider trading Darvish, as his value will NEVER be higher than right now, as well as trading Bryant and Schwarber, recouping some value before these guys walk (or the Cubs show them the door, if they repeat their performance from 2020).
The Cubs have a great chance to transition the club to long-term contention. Trade some of these guys for prospects; keep Baez, Rizzo, Hendricks, Happ, Heyward, Contreras (though you could get a lot for him too); and retool this team for 2022. They cannot keep Schwarber, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, and Contreras all together on the same team and have financial flexibility to patch holes where needed. Plus, the offense is broken.
And I’m not so sure Kris Bryant isn’t broken?
Trade some of the Major League roster, while signing Tommy La Stella, Jake Lamb, maybe resign Quintana on the cheap, sign Robbie Ray. Sprinkle in some other cheap veterans. Maybe trade Darvish to the Rays (see above). Maybe trade Bryant to the Phillies for RHP Francisco Morales and LHP Erik Miller? Maybe trade Schwarber to the Yankees for RHP Roansy Contreras? That’s dumping a lot of contract obligations while infusing some serious talent into the system (Baz, Morales, Edwards) or SOMETHING ELSE LIKE THIS, so the Cubs can retool a little bit.
Because the current makeup of the team is not working, and they are not going to give a qualifying offers to all of Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, and Schwarber. They will not longer after 2021 be able to afford everybody, so move on from this core group of players.
This would not be a complete rebuild. They could still contend for a division title in 2021 (which is the best they can expect anyways, because this roster is not winning a World Series again with these players) and be ready to seriously compete in 2022. Imagine a starting rotation of Hendricks, Baz, Marquez, and Miller with Morales coming out of the bullpen?
Schwarber for Roansy Contreras?
DONE!
no backsies
Why on earth would Tommy Pham be non-tendered… Well lets look at the obvious reasons:
The Padres hope to extend Tatis.. what is that extension going to look like? How much is that going to jump his AAV? They already have Machado at 34 million, Hosmer at 21 million and Myers at 22.5. Clevenger is going to see nice size arbitration raise. Davis is going to get a nice size bump as well.
Spending over 8 million on Pham, who was recently stabbed, May not be a luxury the Padres can afford when you look at the holes that need filled.
Yeah we get that you love the Rays… You know who else loves the Rays players? The Rays. And you know what the Rays cannot do? Absorb 22 million dollars in Darvish’s salary. You know what else the Cubs cannot do? Trade Darvish because he has a full no trade clause and has already said he will not allow a trade.
Merrifield fills way too many holes and MOST people do not think Marquez is going to be anything more than a reliever. Do you want to throw away the last run at a title or put yourself in the best position.
Holding onto your prospect is great! Just ask Friedman and be impressed at all the World Series titles he hasn’t won…. but he got there twice right? Because in this game we care about getting to the World Series just as much as winning.
Here is a couple broad strokes you need to realize.
1.) as of right now, 2021 is our last shot at a title. One cannot assume anything… we cannot assume we bring Baez or Rizzo or Schwarber or Bryant back. We have to assume all leave via free agency and the only “core” players we are left with are Happ and Contreras
2.) the Cubs have to reset the luxury tax penalties. It’s a must do for next season. It’s not a maybe, it’s a must.
3.) Status pro quo has not worked and isn’t magically going to work again.
So, you have to get a massively talented like Merrifield who’s skill set is exactly what the Cubs need at the top of the order. For the blind attempting to lead the blind let me explain. The Cubs suck at hitting lefties. Merrifield hits lefties extremely well. The Cubs lack speed, Merrifield steals bags like it’s going out of style, The Cubs lack batting average and putting the ball in play, Merrifield puts the ball in play. The Cubs have their back against the wall when it comes to the luxury tax, Merrfield plays like an All-Star and carries a 4 million AAV.
Furthermore, Merrifield on the bases forces prevents pitchers from going to the breaking stuff too often… it just so happens the Cubs hitters are horrendous at hitting breaking balls. Pairing him in front of Baez would allow Baez to do what he does best, hit fastballs and hanging sliders.
As far as trading Schwarber, that would be fine but Kyle Schwarber 2.0 is going to be a free agent (Joc Pederson) so odds are teams will look there first. Schwarber also wasn’t as bad as his numbers appeared, he’s awful against lefties, there is no argument there but against righties he posted a .188/.313/.740 which doesn’t sound very good but he was unlucky, only hitting .200 on balls in play. He also had an exit velocity in the top 5% of baseball, a hard hit rate in the upper 15% of baseball and barrel rate in the top 25. I’m just not sure in Schwarber’s case, the risk vs. reward of a trade is a viable trade off.
I’m not sure if you have been paying attention, but the Phillies third base former prospect is going to win ROY… the Kris Bryant dream there is gone.
I’d love to bring LaStella back and I think the Cubs should but he won’t address the Cubs need for a player who can hit lefties. If the Cubs were able to “dump” Schwarber and Bryant, they should go after LaStella and Michael Brantley. Brantley’s skill set is much needed despite his age and lack of hard contact.
Tommy Pham was just stabbed in the back outside a San Diego night club. He was in the wrong place at the wrong time. The argument was between two other people near his car. I assume he should be recover by spring training……Hopefully this does not affect his career……,
Your attempt at undermining the opinion of another was ruined when you state a false fact in your first paragraph. Darvish HAD a full NTC but in 2021 it becomes a LTC and there are teams he can be traded to.
Conflicting reports but sportstrac has it as full no trade protection, while others stat it’s a full no trade clause for his first four years (and then 10/5 rights kick in) and then others say he as a limited no trade clause (12 team).
I’m going to go with sportstrac since they tend to be the most reliable but if you have access to Darvish’s contract I’m willing to change my stance.
Schwarber needs to bring more than one prospect. Phillies don’t have anyone the cubs need. Despite a terrible year on a 60 game season. Bryant is still worth more than 2 barely ranked prospects. Maybe Bryant for 2 ML pitchers from the braves.
Schwarber could and should bring in at least 4 players. They need to extend rizzo and baez right now. Contreras should be extended in 2022. Darvish is their ace. The rays have a small payroll. They can’t afford him. Cubs need pitching not subtract from it. Is robbie ray really worth it? Why not go after Trevor Bauer. They have nearly 45mil off the books with Lester and Quintana. Plus a waste of roster spot daniel descalso with 4mil.
This is the 2nd winter in a row they have over 40mil off the books. The Ricketts are cheap. They probably won’t allow Theo to spend money again.
Whit Merrifield for Marquez? Really? Whit is 31 and it took him 10 years to find himself. Not worth it. That’s like jim Hendry being obsessed with trying to trade for Brian Roberts. Who wasn’t even good in the first place.
Maybe Merrifield for a non rank prospect
But who else do the Yankees have? Not a whole lot. Gotta be Schwarber for Contreras and 2 more just to keep theo and jed on the phone. Contreras, Oswalt Peraza and Luis Medina for Schwarber.
Why would they replace a 22yr old for 31 year old? Thats dumb. How about Merrifield for Jose Martinez. That’s a better trade
I’m not sure if you are being serious or if you are being sarcastic.
Schwarber brings in four prospects? Not in this life time.
Trevor Bauer? Do you realize that even though they have 45 coming off the books, a large portion of that is going to be reinvested into arbitration raises AND they are nearly 8 million over the luxury tax already…
Tom Ricketts is not “cheap” the Cubs have carried a top 5 payroll and paid the luxury tax 3 seasons in a row.
I’m not even going to comment on the thoughtless statement “Maybe Merrifield for a non rank prospect”.
I’m sorry, I’m not trying to be a complete jerk, your post was thought out but made little sense. I already addressed most but how is Kiermaier anything close to Merrfield and how does he address anything the Cubs need?
1.) Cubs outfield hit below .200 against southpaws and an OBP of around .300 (off the top of my head)… KK doesn’t hit lefties (doesn’t really hit anyone) well.
2.) Cubs need to add contact and batting average- KK doesn’t hit for average at all… nor does he get on base.
3.) Cubs need to cut payroll to make proper additions to the roster-KK has a 9 million AAV.
I know no one wants to give up potentially elite prospects for established players but you have to look at the championship window, the needs of the team and the fit of a player. Merrifield checks every single box in the need column. The only thing that would make him a “perfect” fit is if he played defense like Mondesi. He has a low AAV, he is fast, he has a high OBP, high batting average, and he has pop. He is basically Dexter Fowler for 4 million dollars. Ideally you do not want to give up Marquez but you have to weight the pros vs. the cons and the worth of the window. What is another championship worth to you? What are the odds Marquez becomes an elite starter? or even an elite reliever? He has his warts (mostly control).
Okay fine Schwarber get 2 medium to high ranked prospects.
Yes cubs have are top 5 in payroll and the last 2 years they’ve down jacks*** . The Yankees are #1 in payroll and spend a ridiculous amount of money every year. Why are they able to spend 40-60 mil a year?
Technically its not Tom Ricketts team. It’s Joe Ricketts. It was his money. Tom Ricketts doesn’t have that much bread.
Joe Ricketts is cheap.
Whut Merrifield isn’t worth Marquez, Amaya and Nico Hoerner. Thats insane to trade that much for a 31, 32 in January.
What makes you think he’s worth that much?
Glad you threw Hoerner in there… I never said that.
Amaya isn’t an elite prospect. He is a very good defensive prospect and may or may not hit at the ML level. Given the Cubs window and fact we have Contreras who is arguably the best catcher in the game (top 5 for sure) and Caratini who is the best back up in the game, the Cubs do not have a huge need for Amaya.
Marquez, I mentioned as to say if we used him we could land pretty much anyone. Why I would be interested in him is because he profiles more as a reliever than a starter and is still a couple years away to be polished enough to pitch in relief. Right now, his inconsistency and ability to throw strikes puts him in Dillion Maples area, not Josh Hader.
As for the Yankees… this is only the second time in a row they have been in the luxury tax penalty box so you are wrong in your assessment. Every team needs to reset the luxury tax from time to time, the current CBA ensures that given the harshness of the penalties.
To suggest the Cubs have not done “jack” is wrong, last I checked they won the central this year…. maybe I’m wrong.
Finally, what makes Merrifield worth it in my eyes…
1.)well the Cubs need to reset the luxury tax and get better. You are not going to find a guy of Merrifields talents making a 4 million AAV that is available in trade.
2.) he addresses most of the Cubs needs, the ability to steal bases and create runs. Hits for a high average, gets on base, hits lefties very well. The only box he doesn’t check is elite level defense.
4.) getting a guy like Merrifield, making what he makes, allows the Cubs to improve other aspects of their game with cash, like the rotation.
If you pay attention to the other posts, the Cubs as of right now, only have approx. 15-20 million to spend once arbitration raises are paid. It’s an unknown on how much these guys will make so all I can do is estimate it’s in that range. That isn’t much to improve the team.. the Cubs need to add contact, another starting pitcher, another reliever and depth. Now if you trade Kris Bryant you clear up nearly an additional 20 million, trading for Merrifield only eats up 4 million of that and addresses one of the team needs, allowing roughly 35 million to improve other areas. Thirty five million allows you to add Stroman and Doolittle and still have money left over to make additional moves.
One last thing, Joe Ricketts is not cheap, Tom Ricketts isn’t cheap, Cubs ownership is not cheap. Ownership has invested heavily in all aspects of the Cubs, they have a top five payroll in baseball… they are footing the bill to renovate Wrigley, they built a baseball academy in the DR, they have one of, if not the highest paid front offices in baseball, they spend heavily on player development and scouting, they paid to develop a pitch lab… What part of that equates to “cheap”? That they spend as much as allowed to them on international free agents and in the draft?
Call the Cubs ownership “cheap” is an ignorant comment spoken by someone who doesn’t understand finances.
Amaya and Marquez is too much for Merrifield, drasco. Maybe one of them and a lesser prospect.
But why would they want to do that? After 2021, they are going to need their prospects. They would be better off giving La Stella three years, $20-25 million and keeping the prospects.
Just saying they’ve spent more money on partnerships with draft kings than the actual team. I figured Marquez would be a future candidate in the rotation. They’re horrible in developing pitchers. When was the last time they did that? Wood,Prior and Big Z they started out great. And Big Z was very sporadic. He was like Andy Pettite great and seemingly unhittelable the next start he gives up 6+ runs in 2 2/3. And He was a hot head. I’m sure there was more pitchers. I’m specifically talking SP.
I just hate they’ve potentially breaking up then “core”. As you and all cubs fans know. When one player slumps the whole team slumps.
Trading Bryant makes my Bryzzo jersey irrelevant. I’ll still rock it though.
Sorry about the Hoerner thing. I saw it and thought it was you.
All that aside how do you feel about Brennen Davis? I’ve heard he’s legit. I am excited to see Burl Carraway and Luke Little. They should be great back of the bullpen guys. Carraway could be the close in the future. I wouldn’t mind Jeffress to return though.
Marquez is not going to get traded, just not happening.
As for breaking up the core. It has to happen, we are talking slumps that continue to happen year after year, everyone seemed to peak in 2016, aside from 18/19 for Baez.
I’m not that high on Marquez, I think his ceiling is as an ace reliever to be completely honest. He has a fantastic fastball but his secondary pitches and control are troubling.
I’m curious how the Cubs will address the offseason, mini-rebuild or attempt to tweak the roster and compete. If the Cubs want to do a “mini” rebuild, trading Rizzo would bring back the most for a one year rental. He’s always reliable, plays top notch defense and is more affordable than Bryant. There are also not a lot of viable options at first base via free agency.
I love Davis, he is probably the only prospect in our system that I would hang the “untouchable” tag on.
I’m high on the Cubs farm system, more so than most. As mentioned I love Davis and I think they killed this years draft.
Nwogu I believe is going to be a flat out stud! He reminds me a lot of Jorge Soler with more upside defensively.
I believe the Cubs have a ton of pitchers with high leverage stuff… Outside of Gallardo, I’m not sure I see many starters but they have several with enough raw stuff to be effective impact relievers. Little and Caraway both fit that category but there are other guys as well. such as Riley Thompson and Abbott. The entire farm is littered with guys throw mid to upper 90’s. Keegan Thompsom could be of the Hendricks/Mills mould so he’s another guy I personally will be keeping an eye on.
Contreras continues to get better as well. If the NL keeps the DH the Cubs need to attempt to extend Wilco. I think he’s a better hitter than Realmuto and if/when MLB moves to the automated strike zone, his pitch framing will become irrelevant.
I love Baez at around 20 million per season… as we saw this year.. that is kind of his floor, poor batting average and on base but is still going to drive in runs, still make amazing plays at short stop, and he will still make dynamic, game changing plays. As far as paying him top dollar? There is no way.
Schwarber could and should bring in at least 4 players.
————————————————————-
Maybe 4 prospects that no one ever heard of.
He has a career WAR of 1.6 WAR/650. He has one year of a WAR > 1.8. His career OPS away from Wrigley is .777. His career OPS against lefties is .650. He’s basically a slightly above average platoon player.
No he’d get at least one top prospect. Above average in the field. His only flaw is vs lefties. He Ks alot but they’ve been down.
I guess 4 player is pushing it. Doubt the Yankees. Have anyone worth getting. As they’re rumored to be interested. Cashman wanted Schwarber and Glayber Torres for Chapman.
Kris Bryant is going to be a fascinating case to watch. I mean I can’t imagine you just cut a guy like that loose? He stunk this year, but it was such an unusual season. If I had to wager a Coke, I’d think they offer him arbitration with no plan to go long-term until they see if he rebounds.
That is likely the plan, I see zero chance they non-tender him, He is likely to bounce back next season and I think if the Cubs want to trade him there will be teams willing to take the chance he bounces back too, Cubs will not get much anything in return besides salary relief. My guess is the Cubs hold onto him and take the gamble he rebounds and either becomes a sought out trade target at the deadline or if Cubs are contending then keep him and offer the QO.
He is worth the risk,
I don’t see the Cubs holding onto him because if they do, it’s basically a throw away year.
The offense is broke and the 15-20 million they have available is not going to be enough fix it. They also have to round out the rotation and probably add another relief pitcher with closer experience.
Going status pro quo like they have the past three years would be idiotic.
If all they are going to get is salary relief, why would they not just non-tender him, since they would get even more relief? The only way they trade him during season instead of non-tender, is if they are trying to get players for him.
How would non-tendering a guy get them even more salary relief?
I think the Cubs will tender Bryant a contract but will trade him. That is just my opinion. The issue is, the Cubs are not going to get much in return. I really think the best the Cubs can hope for is a top 100 prospect, probably in the 75-100 range and a former top prospect who is a change of scenery candidate.
Anyway, I don’t think you can hang onto Bryant at 18 plus million and make the moves you need to make to improve them team. Maybe Theo does a mini rebuild this year and rides off with his tail between his legs like he did in Boston but I think it’s more likely he is going to try to go out on top.
Going out on top is why I think he goes aggressively after Merrifield instead of dancing around it with KC again. He address a lot of the Cubs key issues while counting very little against the luxury tax.
I think the Cubs let Lester go but attempt to add an upside third starter, I’m thinking a guy like Arrieta, Anthony DeSclafani, Minor, Paxton, Odorizzi, Ray… basically guys that struggled but could provide value on investment and won’t kill us on payroll Maybe the Cubs go after Stroman if his price is down but if I were the Mets, I would hang him with a QO.
I think for the Cubs it’s going to be bargain shopping on guys who under preformed on the bump but also going after a guy like LaStella to add contact and BA. I also think they need to add team speed so they can manufacture runs as opposed to the station to station, walk and hit home runs offense they have been playing for so many years.
My comment was to the guy above you.
If you non-tender Bryant, that is 18mill you don’t spend now. If you tender the contract and then just trade for money relief, say the other team gives 10m of relief, you still spent 8mil.
So, if the Cubs actually ONLY cared about cap relief, they would let him go. If they are trying to get prospects, then they keep him and ship him elsewhere. Otherwise, why pay him just to trade him for the money you are paying him? It wouldn’t make any sense.
Dodge
Duck
Dip
Dive
Dodge
Great stuff as always! I didn’t see Mike Foltynewicz on the list. What would his arb be do you think?
He’s not on the list because he was already outrighted off the 40-man roster. Any player with 3+ years of service who is outrighted and not re-added to the 40-man can elect free agency at year’s end. That will be the route Folty takes after the postseason.
I feel like there’s going to be some surprising non-tenders this offseason in teams’ efforts to save some money.
What about Mike Foltyne….
Kidding.
Excellent work on these lists year in and year out.
Good work. Hard to know what methodology will be used by arbitrators and I do not believe the league or the teams can pick it for them. Makes sense to extrapolate this year’s results to a 162 game season but I guess we’ll see what methods the arbitrators pick. I also wonder how many of these cases will settle prior to a hearing, and whether or not we see an uptick or down tick in the number of cases settled. And yes, how many non-tenders. Will it really be a lot more or more in line with past seasons? This off season promises to be very interesting.
What about super 2’s? Where is that cutoff?
Best comment in here.
cutting Hembree, Velasquez, and Morgan can get you three good healthy arms in their stead.
This year will push front office staffers to the limits. We as fans will see which front office really knows their players. A front office should already know what type a player they have before this type of situation arises. Was Kris Bryant fighting injuries all year that we don’t know about? Was it a fluke he won MVP? Is he a really a special talent? These type of players don’t walk in the door every day. The game is hard to play and everyone deserves the benefit of the doubt.
I agree with your sentiments, but from my perspective as a Cubs fan, it seems clear that other teams (Brewers, Rays especially, Athletics, etc.) have been able to have varying degrees of success without lengthy, entrenched contracts. I say, trade Bryant and Schwarber for whatever you can get, whether immediate assets or prospects (probably get more value if they’re prospects), and then use that $30 million to patch up holes in the team. They’re also going to have Chatwood, Lester ($10 million buyout), and Quintana coming off the books, another $35 million. Darvish’s trade value is never going to be higher, and with about $63 million owed to him over the next three years (that’s not a lot of $$$$ for a frontline starter).
The Cubs have a great chance to transition the club to long-term contention. Trade some of these guys for prospects; keep Baez, Rizzo, Hendricks, Happ, Heyward, Contreras (though you could get a lot for him too); and retool this team for 2022. They cannot keep Schwarber, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, and Contreras all together on the same team and have financial flexibility to patch holes where needed. Plus, the offense is broken.
And I’m not so sure Kris Bryant isn’t broken?
Trade some of the Major League roster, while signing Tommy La Stella, Jake Lamb, maybe resign Quintana on the cheap, sign Robbie Ray. Sprinkle in some other cheap veterans. Maybe trade Darvish to the Rays for CF Kiermeier, RHP Shane Baz, and SS / 2B Xavier Edwards? Maybe trade Bryant to the Phillies for RHP Francisco Morales and LHP Erik Miller? Maybe trade Schwarber to the Yankees for RHP Roansy Contreras? That’s dumping a lot of contract obligations while infusing some serious talent into the system (Baz, Morales, Edwards) or SOMETHING ELSE LIKE THIS, so the Cubs can retool a little bit.
Because the current makeup of the team is not working, and they are not going to give a qualifying offers to all of Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, and Schwarber. They will not longer after 2021 be able to afford everybody, so move on from this core group of players.
This would not be a complete rebuild. They could still contend for a division title in 2021 (which is the best they can expect anyways, because this roster is not winning a World Series again with these players) and be ready to seriously compete in 2022. Imagine a starting rotation of Hendricks, Baz, Marquez, and Miller with Morales coming out of the bullpen?
Out of curiosity… how many combined World Series rings have the Brewers, Rays, and Athletics won in the past 20 years? 30 years?
I’m sorry but there are no rings for playoff appearances or bragging rights about little you spent to get there.
Since you regurgitated an earlier post, I will regurgitate my reply:
1.) Darvish has full no trade protection.
2.) The Rays are a low budget team and are not going to trade two top 100 prospects within the teams top 5.
3.) The Phillies current third baseman is winning ROY this season after destroying every pitch he saw.
The love affair with small budget teams is understandable, especially when they do well but it means jack when you do not win rings.
1) Darvish doesn’t have full trade protection……
3) Croneworth is winning ROY and it won’t even be close, Williams will likely be second for ROY. (and even this is still speculation, but based on information from voting that has already come out).
If you’re going to present facts, at least make them factual.
Sportstac says he does.
Based on everything I’ve read Bohm is rookie of the year and if he is not, he’s two.
MLB.COM lists neither Cronenworth nor Bohm in the top five of NL candidates for the ROY Award.
Scratch that. That’s a list for 2021 candidates, I guess.
mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-rookie-of-the-year-award-con…
Sporting News did a poll of players, managers and executives, and of the 48 of the 84 votes by NL players, second was Williams with 25 votes (that leaves 11 left, so at max Bohm got 11).
Bob Nightengale and Joel Sherman both reported that the NTC moved to a LTC. Nightengale provided all of the details of the clauses, and specifically talked about how the Cubs structured his deal the same as Heyward (which also went from NTC to LTC, until his 10/5 rights kicked in).
You literally can google both of these things and it is the first stuff to pop up….
Was Bryant mailing it in due to a bit of a bitter contract negotiation with the team?
I recall a stretch where he hurt his wrist on a diving play, then about a week later when he seemed to be over that, he was beaned in the elbow. One of those kinda years.
But I do wonder how much he was limiting himself to expedite a trade. The Manny Ramirez strategy…
Isn’t Daniel Bard arbitration elligible for the Rockies?
Amazing information as always. Any chance the 3 different methods could be tallied up – sum of all projected salaries for option 1 vs. 2 vs. 3. It would be interesting to know how much is at stake for players vs. owners as a whole. Thanks for the fantastic analysis.
There’re three potential non-tenders in the Reds: Goodwin, Casali and Stephenson.
Seems like 1 and 3 is the same/similar in the majority of cases, but the higher profile cases have a gap still.
Option two is highest value, makes sense. This tender deadline is going to be interesting
Are you guys absolutely SURE they didn’t come to an agreement on how arbitration would be handled? AZPhil, at TheCubReporter, who’s extremely knowledgeable on these sorts of things and hangs out on the Cubs backfields in Arizona talking to Cubs personnel all the time, says otherwise. He says the agreement is that 2020 stats won’t count towards the arbitration process at all and the figures will be done using their prior numbers. For the Cubs, meaning KB and Javy as examples, will receive larger raises than expected. While a guy like Ian Happ won’t receive the benefit of his 2020 season and will get less as a first time arb eligible guy. I hope you guys check into this, because I do expect AZPhil to be correct on this, as he is on pretty much any transactional rulings.
What I’ve read that was agreed upon was that 2021 arbitration salaries won’t be used as precedent for future arbitration salaries.
Ian Happ deserves a big raise maybe 10+mil. An Extension within tbe next 3 years.
Baez got a salary of 5 million after coming in second in MVP voting… Happ will be around 3.5 million.
I’m a big Ian Happ fan but he is a platoon bat. The guy simply cannot hit lefties to save his life.
I believe that was going to be the case if the 2020 was not played at all. Players would get their service time and their arbitration raises would have been based off the 2019 stats.
I was also under the impression that no player would have draft pick compensation tied to them for 2020 but apparently, since there is a discussion on whom will get a qualifying offer, I was mistaken.
Truthfully, there was so much information being thrown around while the players association and MLB were negotiating the 2020 season it’s impossible to know.
This website is the best for reads like this.. great work boys!
From the comments here, it feels like there is a lot of under-estimation on Bryant. In the 5 years before 2020, he averaged a 4.8 bWAR. One injury, and y’all are giving up on him?
Same with Sanchez, though Sanchez is not nearly as consistent as Bryant. Both were AS’s in 2019, and both are young.
Fans are emotional, not logical. To paraphrase Dean Wormer, the chances of Bryant or Sanchez being non-tendered based on 2020’s 60-game season: 0.0.
Tim, I’m not sure if on the actual Red Sox roster the following players are still entitled to arbitration:
1. Dylan Covey,
2. Nick Pivetta,
3. Yairo Muñoz,
4. Cesar Puello,
5. Andrew Triggs.
6. Rusney Castillo.
Making this a total of 15 arbitracional players.
1. Dylan Covey, yes, arb
2. Nick Pivetta, no
3. Yairo Muñoz, no
4. Cesar Puello, no
5. Andrew Triggs, yes, arb
6. Rusney Castillo, Free Agent $72.5 million wasted
Information is available on Soxprospect.com on the 40-man page.
Peraza, Triggs, Godley, Covey, IMO will be non-tendered…..Plawecki, Weber, and maybe Brice will be offered arbitration along with Devers, Barnes, Rodriguez, Brasier
IMO non-tenders will also go to soon to be former Red Sox:
Tzu-Wei Lin
Marcus Walden
Colton Brewer
Mike Kickham
Add these to the players listed above:
Players removed from 40-man:
Tapia
Layer
Hall
Springs
Stock
Mazza
Hart
Pueblo
Aybar
Luke Voit endorses Method #2. I immediately went to his arb projections figuring he might have the widest percentage gap from method #2 compared to 1 and 3.
Really not sure how to handle this. HR hitters are streaky, so the impact positively and negatively from a 60-game season can be extreme. I doubt Voit was going to challenge the single-season HR mark of 61 (yeah, I know), but he was on pace for nearly 60 HRs. I suspect over a regular schedule he’d have finished somewhere in the 40-49 range, but who knows.
It’s not just this year, but arbitration numbers build yearly, never decreasing, so this will impact players and teams for a number of years.
Good luck to the arbitrators this year!
Cubs have some serious cash going into arbitration this year…WOW!
…and they don’t have any money…..
I believe Aaron Judge was awarded $8M last season for his first year of arbitration. Not sure if that was ruled vs. agreed to with the team, but I can certainly see Judge filing for at least $15M this year, regardless of his injury history. Even in this down baseball economy, there’s no way Judge makes anything less than $12M, if not the $15M+ he will be looking for. He’s still a Top 30 player in MLB when healthy and will get paid as such. Sanchez made $5M this year so if they are looking to keep him, I could see his salary jump closer to $10M, than the figures proposed above. It’s just the way arbitration works. A Sanchez raise doesn’t make sense based on what he did this year but this is why the MLBPA is the strongest union in all of sports.
I like how you’re always so concerned about the Yankees payroll. I’ve actually learned more about the Yanks payroll from you than actual Yankee fans.
😉
MLBTR has *always* been really accurate with their arb estimates. They are not predicting near that for Gary or Judge.
So.
Think I’ll use their estimates as they have proven to be an excellent indicator in the past.
I realize that you are desperate to see the Yanks in a financial squeeze.
Today – however – is *still* not that day.
Uh?
Dorothy’s “concern” is heartwarming. : -)
There’s no formula that gets Judge from $8M to $15M. It’ll be somewhere around $10M, but they’ll never go to arbitration. They’ll come to an agreement, as they did last year. Sanchez will get a minor raise. The big question is how do they handle Voit.
RAB?
Touching ain’t it?
He’s a good poster, though. So there’s that.
Yessir.
Yourself?
What about the interesting case of Daniel Bard?
According to his service time, he’s still arb eligible
Mike Soroka isn’t arbitration-eligible yet, 1 year, 146 days of service time.
I believe that the Astros will non-tender Devenski and Osuna.
¿About the same salary to Carlos Correa, Eddy Rosario, Javy Baez, Aaron Judge and Jose Berrios? Why?
Is there an arbitration projection for Yolmer Sanchez? The Orioles claimed him from the White Sox and it looks like he arbitration eligible as long as he stays on their 40-man roster.
Braves Soroka hasn’t reached 3 years of service so 2021 would not be arb 1, right?