The World Series will come to an end next week, meaning teams will soon have to decide whether to tag their impending free agents with the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. If a team makes a player a QO which that player rejects, the team will be entitled to some form of draft compensation if the player departs in free agency.
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently ran down the qualifying offer outlook for both position players and pitchers. As is the case every year, some players are candidates to receive a QO but might plausibly accept if offered. One such player is Astros outfielder Michael Brantley.
One of the sport’s most consistently productive hitters over his tenure in Cleveland, Brantley reached free agency following the 2018 season. Surprisingly, the Indians elected not to make him a qualifying offer, forgoing the opportunity to receive compensation if he signed elsewhere. Brantley did just that, inking a two-year, $32MM contract with Houston.
Brantley continued to perform over the course of that deal. In 824 plate appearances as an Astro, he’s put up a robust .309/.370/.497 slash line (134 wRC+). He remains one of the league’s tougher batters to strike out and his all-fields approach has helped him sustain strong batting averages on balls in play. Brantley doesn’t put up eye-popping peak exit velocities, but he’s been remarkably adept at avoiding weak contact and mishits.
On the other hand, Brantley’s 33 years old (34 in May) and limited to left field and/or designated hitter. He’ll need to continue to hit at an extremely high level to remain a valuable player. The left-handed hitter holds his own against southpaws but is hardly elite in that regard (career .275/.331/.373 line against LHP). In a market rife with uncertainty (and perhaps flooded with alternatives from non-tenders), the earning power of players like Brantley could be limited.
The Astros’ payroll might be an issue, as well. Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and José Altuve each have sizable contracts on the books already, and there are a few notable arbitration raises to consider. Potentially losing all of George Springer (who’s a slam dunk QO decision), Brantley and Josh Reddick to free agency, the Houston front office will have to address the outfield in some form this offseason. They just might choose to do so more cheaply than by making an $18.9MM offer to Brantley.
Turning it over to MLBTR readers, how should GM James Click proceed?
(poll link for app users)
yes, unless they really don’t want to pay it out or dont care to contend next year.
I think teams are going to go cheap in free agency with all of the uncertainty. Good hitter but it wouldn’t surprise me if they don’t make the QO as he’d probably jump on it. Pro sports are going to lose a lot in fan attendance even if things go back to normal. Athletes had to bring politics into the fold and they are going to lose lots of paying fans which will effect their salaries soon.
People who think bringing politics into sports is something new, don’t know history at all.
Covid caused the slump in business not politics. Most people do not care what their favorite team does. It was politics that brought sports into it. If some leaders did not make a big deal of a person that kneel nobody would have cared. Throughout history politics hindered sports not sports hindering America.
I think the average person uses sports as a release and a way to not think about the pressures of daily life. When politics becomes something at the forefront of tuning in to watch, it does cause some people to move on. The fact remains that kneeling during the national anthem alienates a large portion of the population. It isn’t the cause they disagree with, it’s the form of protest. The fact is many people have tuned out and some may never return.
Polling would show it’s not a “large” portion of the population. I think the average person could care less.
Isn’t this the highest watched World Series of all time? Kinda seems like you’re projecting a bit. I don’t think any sport took a hit for it’s political stance.
Ratings were down because there were 4 sports all playing at the same time. I suspect some people also realized they can live without sports and others just don’t have the time (think working parents with kids at home doing homeschooling). I doubt a large percentage care about politics as they have always been a part of sports.
The Astros talk extensively about how important Brantley is as a leader and as a player, they are paying him 16 million dollars per and has played up to his contract. I think, if they know they cannot bring Springer back, they should extend a QO knowing odds are he will accept.
Brantley is probably looking at 28 million across two years on the open market but being such a vital piece to the astros cog, a QO and then attempting to workout a 2/28, similar to the White Sox and Abreu last season getting a QO and then working out an extension, makes sense.
With that said, I hope it doesn’t happen because I would like Brantley on the Cubs next season.
I don’t know Click, why don’t you ask Jose Urquidy.
I suspect that free agents are going to be pretty cheap this offseason and they could likely re-sign him for a significant savings if they wanted him back.
With a NL DH, he would be a nice fallback to Ozuna, Nelson Cruz.
Assuming the owners are just going to concede the universal DH with nothing back going to them in 2021 seems suspect at this point
Duh
He made $16MM per year for the last two years, and he’s two years older now… He’d accept an $18.9MM contract. Houston should only offer it if they want him to accept it.
16 per was vital info left out of the article.
How bout framing it this way – would u rather have him on a 1 year at 19 mil or 2 years for another 32/35 mil ?
1 year seems safer to me. And if it’s offered- he has to take it. Having a pick tied to him will ruin his value
16 per was vital info included in the article – unless it was added later in an update/rewrite.
I agree that Houston should offer it only if they’d want him to accept it. He is as consistent as any player right now. It is not a huge investment and no long term commitment Click has to ask who would replace him, and at what cost. You at least can reasonable predict what you will get from Brantley.
the big knock on him when he signed with HOU was his health, and it’s been better since he joined them.
Valdez should be returning. Save money for Springer or Bauer or Both!
Bauer has made his feelings about the Astros widely known. No chance he signs with them for any price.
He would accept it in half a second but if they lose Springer, they’ll need Brantley so yes, I would take him back for one year and offer him the QO.
He’s worth a QO, but I haven’t a clue if they should offer it. Too many variables with the team coupled with unusual market dynamics. I won’t be surprised either way.
That’s my non-contribution.
I guess why not? If he signs elsewhere, they get compensated in the draft. If he accepts and they can’t afford the $18.9m, explore a trade? Someone will value Brantley at that price.
I believe that players who sign free agent contracts or accept the qualifying offer are exempt from trades until the next Rule 5 MLB Draft which will occur in early July next year as opposed to its normal June time frame. I also believe a trade can occur beforehand with the players consent. If this is true then Brantley can’t be traded until early next July which is only weeks before the July 31st trade deadline unless he waives that right.
Great point. I believe you are correct.
The Rule 5 Draft occurs in December at the winter meetings and involves minor league players. You are probably referring to the Rule 4 Draft which occurs midsummer.
No one knows what the spending market is going to be this coming season. I truly believe it will be down due to lost revenues this season. Is Brantley worth nineteen mil? Don’t ink so, so offer him 32 mil on a two year deal. if not move on. Give Springer the QO he is worth it.
Don’t even think about bringing Bauer on board! Poison for our team.
oh cause correa is poison enough eh! Dont think you gotta worry about the astros signing Bauer based on what hes been saying since your team got caught being the cheatest bunch of cheats that cheated since the black soxs
why knock the guy who actually hit better this year?
The thing about Michael Brantley’s hitting profile is that is isn’t reliant upon power and he has a strong eye at the plate. So he should stay relatively successful since he has an excellent contact profile that is Ichiro Suzuki or Tony Gwynn like.
Apparently Dusty Baker calls him “Will Clark,” which supports your argument. Clark, of course, was a level below Gwynn and Ichiro, who were otherworldly, but he was still one of the best contact hitters I’ve seen in about 40 years following the game
No they shouldn’t. Not all, but some team are going to try to recoup their Covid losses by getting leaner. Too much money for and aging veteran with a history of injuries. The Rays model is proof that pitching and fundamentals can take you as far….sometimes.
With the Astros losing draft picks from the sign-stealing scandal this could be a way to recoup those lost picks. QO’s for Springer and Brantley could bring in two high draft picks
Plus it frees up money to re-sign the trash can
What an original comment!
Still funny doe!
If he’s healthy, there’s no question if Brantley is worth it. The question the Astros must ask themselves is “Will Brantley stay healthy?” Even if I thought the season will be shortened in 2021 and teams will only pay pro-rated portions of contracted salaries I wouldn’t want my team committing so much to a player who has played 90% of a season once in the last six seasons as he turns 34 in May of next season. Let him hit the open market and negotiate a reunion if you like him on your roster. The Astros would be better served trying to lock up Springer or throwing $22-24m a season at Ozuna before settling on Brantley.
It makes me wonder with Brantley. He was limited to DH for a fair portion of this season think due to injury. Think took a foul ball off foot or leg or something.
But if Alvarez returns and he is still your Main DH that leaves Brantley for LF.
I would love to keep Springer for the outfield. Time to move on from Josh. Maybe he can help some other team still.
Seen they are set on Tucker in outfield as well. Not sure if more Left or Right. Not sure where he is best at defensively either.
Nice that Gurriel is staying on a one year extension. I think he is up there age wise so that gives another year to perhaps watch for someone maybe to take his place.
Whether they go after any pitching: Starters as need someone but have too much money there with Verlander out for year and Greinke struggled this season. Is he slowing down.
I just hope Astros can put together a fair team with what Covid has set with this season and into the upcoming season at least.
I hope Fans can come back hate to see it limited but if can do what Football has I will take it. But hope to see a competitive team. Not sure who will be strong with next season in the West but hope to not see our Run at top end either drastically anyways.
Just love to see something to watch.
But will see what Click can do this off season.
Ideally they’d have Brantley in LF, Springer in CF, and Tucker in RF.
But keeping both Brantley and Springer will be nearly impossible.
What good would it do for the outfield? He’s a DH.
He played 40% of his games this year in LF.
The reason he played DH so much was because Alvarez was injured.
Question: The Astros don’t have a 1st or 2nd round pick next year, so if they make a move that gives them a compensation round A pick, do they get it?
Yes. Just like we did for Cole.
Compensation picks come after the second round. It’s the competitive balance picks that come between the first and second rounds.
There’s no bad one year contract especially for someone as talented as MB yet as old as he is now…
DING DING DING! Correct!
Definitely not.
He’s – more or less – a DH. I don’t think he’ll get anywhere close to 19 mil. He’ll be 34 & he’s had injury problems. Though not so many with Houston.
I’d guess he’ll get 1 year ~ $12 mil, maybe something ~ 2 for 20. He didn’t get a QO (Cleveland…I know, I know, but still…) *two* years ago. The market – if anything – favors guys like him even less. Plus the Covid stuff?
Man, I’ll be floored if the Astros offer him a qualifying offer, serious.
They say there’s no such thing as a bad one year contract. And Brantley is still pretty elite. Seems like a no brainer to me.
Bauer could end up being a bad 1 yr contract if he gets his 1yr/$40MM deal and regresses. But totally agree that Brantley deserves the money.
The Astros may be getting some salary relief from Verlander’s contract through an insurance policy. If Brantley accepts the qualifying offer, you have a very good offensive player under contract. Sure it might be a little high for Brantley, but it is only a 1-year deal and the Astros need to keep one of their outfielders.
45% voting no? The Astros hate is strong here. So sad.
Why do you care if the Astros hate is strong, it always will be. They just need to be focused on making it to the big show again, and proving people wrong. They almost did it this year, but they were worn out. Valdez looks like an ace, McCullers looks healthy again, and Grienke never left. Sign/ trade for some bullpen arms this off-season, and with the addition of Alvarez, this team will be back like they never left.
Did you guys forget Bergman contract in that to? You have 100 million put into 4 guys.
Averages 54 RBI a year that would be a hard pass
That is the weakest argument against MB I’ve heard yet. The guy typically bats in the top of the order, he scores a lot of runs, and he’s an on-base machine. He practically has an .850 ops every year, and a 126 ops+. Not to mention the amount of injuries he’s had throughout his career with some seasons being cut short. He is a great player, and of course a great hitter, and well worth the 19 mil.
This might be the first time ever that I’ve seen a player being valued on the sole basis of his RBI count. Top lmao.
Why wouldn’t they? He outperformed his contract. $19MM for a 3-4 WAR player on a 1 yr deal is gravy.
If you’re using the 8 million per WAR, that has been disproven. The Athletic did an article showing that including relief pitchers skewed the results. The numbers are in between 4 and 5 million with higher WAR players getting closer to 5 million and lower WAR players getting closer to 4 million. That being said 19 million is a fair price for him.
The fact that the Stros stand to lose 3 starting outfielders to free agency makes a QO seem like a double no brainer to me.
Nope, they should trade him back to Cleveland.
Trading a free agent would be a heck of a trick…
The Astros might need to start retooling. Offer Brantley the QO, then trade him next season. Try to trade Carlos Correa, for pitching prospects. Keep Birdman and Altuve to build around them. See if you can get anything for Greinke. Don’t pull an Angels move. Even if they retool and trade players, they would still be in competition for a Playoff spot.
Bregman not Birdman, stupid autocorrect
Planning on contending: offer it and hope he accepts.
Not sure of the plan: let him walk.
He’s far too consistent of a hitter to let walk over a $3 million raise.
Seems much more likely Springer gets a QO, in the chance that he doesn’t see the kind of deal he’s looking for in a depressed Covid FA market. Rolling the dice on both of them and both accepting hamstrings the payroll too much in an offseason where they should re-up Correa.