The top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays are set to “host” division rival New York Yankees in a playoff-bubble, 5-game, 5-day ALDS contest beginning on Monday night. Without days off, this series will function differently from divisional rounds of years past. The Rays and Yankees will both need to rely on their pitching depth to get through this series, starting with a barnburner in game one as Blake Snell takes on Gerrit Cole.
The Rays are famous for relying on organizational depth, but throughout the course of the regular season they have the luxury of the railway between Triple-A and the big leagues to replenish the bullpen and keep fresh arms rotating into games. The Rays should still have plenty of depth to survive the five-game series if all goes according to plan, given 28-man rosters.
Still, expect to see a lot of different Rays’ arms cycling through games. Tampa starters went less than five innings per start during the regular season, and that’s true for their top trio as well as the rest of the staff. Tyler Glasnow will take the hill in game two, with Charlie Morton getting the start in game three, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (Twitter links). Glasnow, Morton, and Snell combined for an average of 4 2/3 innings per start during the regular season, and that’s not likely to change much during the playoffs, where each pitch registers as high-impact and stress levels reach season-highs.
In the bullpen, both the Rays and Yankees are used to relying on a number of different arms for high-leverage innings. That will be important if the series goes the distance. Yankees’ closer Aroldis Chapman probably carries the single biggest individual burden, but Zack Britton can expect at least equal usage coming out of the pen for stress outs in the middle-to-late innings. As they have all season, the Rays will go with a bullpen-by-committee approach, leaning heavily on the quartet of Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, and John Curtiss late in games.
On the offensive end, The Athletic’s Eno Sarris points out that the Rays strike out a lot and don’t homer very much, which isn’t a typically strong recipe for October. On the other hand, in a conversation with Lindsey Adler, he writes: “But what teams are we talking about? The Rays ran out 60 different lineups in 60 games! They called up Randy Arozarena and sent everyone running in September, and seemed like a different team.”
The Yankees, of course, have the advantage of Cole going in game one, who has a history of strong postseason starts. He’s also as close to a guarantee as there is in the game right now to provide length. That should get the Yankees off on the right foot. Plus, he’ll be backed by a potent offense that doesn’t have much in the way of weak spots. Luke Voit, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Giancarlo Stanton, even Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, and Brett Gardner have proven their potency in the postseason. It’s a scary lineup, any way you slice it.
Still, the Rays have the best record in the American League, an 8-2 record against the Yankees, and a chip on their shoulder. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times provides this quote from Kevin Kiermaier, “We’re a small-market team with a low payroll, not a whole lot of household names, but with a lot of very good, above-average, quality major-league baseball players. One through 28, or however many roster spots we’re allowed, we know we can play with anyone. We know we can beat anyone.”
The Rays 3.56 team ERA was 2nd-best in the American League, where the Yankees finished 8th. By FIP the gap closes a bit with the Rays finishing 3rd and the Yankees 7th. The Yankees led the Rays by just 0.4 offensive fWAR, though their 116 wRC+ as a team was the best mark in the American League. The Rays are no slouches in that department either, finishing fourth at 109 wRC+.
Austin Meadows has been a big part of that offense for Tampa Bay – at least in theory – and he’s working his way back to full health, per Toribio (via Twitter). Meadows might have the highest ceiling offensively in the Rays lineup, but it’s been a tough year for the outfielder, who managed just 36 games with a .205/.296/.371 line. He did not appear in their 2-game sweep of the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Without him, the Rays still have plenty of options, especially given the defensive prowess of Kiermaier and Manuel Margot, as well as the emergence of Arozarena, who could also continue to see time as the designated hitter.
As for the Yankees, they’ll be reliant as ever on an otherwordly offense that just continues to produce in key spots. Not even mentioned in their ridiculous collection of offensive talent above, DJ LeMahieu leads the way after winning the batting title in the America League. On the mound, Cole gives them a big-time punch in game one, but that could be his only appearance of the series. To pitch again, he’d have to come back on short rest in a potential game five. If the Yanks lose game one, it will certainly be interesting to see at what level of urgency they come to the park for game two. Masahiro Tanaka and J.A Happ are likely to follow Cole in the rotation, though manager Aaron Boone hasn’t officially set the rotation yet. High-profile rookie Deivi Garcia could get the ball in a potential game four.
All of which is to say: who knows? This is perhaps the preeminent series of the divisional round, which is saying a lot considering we have four divisional match-ups ahead. What say you? Who is going to come out on top to face the winner of the Astros and Athletics on the other side of the bracket? Save your personal preferences for the comments – I want to know who will win this series.
(Poll link for app users)
GOMS
The Rays are 21-9 vs teams .500 or better. I’m giving them the edge here.
FredMcGriff for the HOF
This poll doesn’t look good for the Yankees. It’s hard to deny the Rays have owned them in recent matches. Maybe this will finally be the end of Cashman?
johnrealtime
There’s no way this is the end of cashman. He has put together a very good team yet again. The yanks would be fools to cut him loose and he would likely jump to the Mets if they did
pasha2k
Cashman is a genius n has done a tremendous job building his team. This is coming from a Redsox fan who admires Cashman’s work.
Ducky Buckin Fent
Yup.
Pretty sure the results of a poll on MLBTR controls Cashman’s fate.
Nice work putting that together.
😉
DarkSide830
Rays in four? you all really cant see the Yankees winning two games?
natsgm
I mean… its baseball. Very plausible they dont
Roll
You can see the Yankees winning 2 games … you can also see Aaron Judge playing a full regular season without injury. To me because of the yankees starting pitching i believe i am more likely to see the Rays winning in 4 and the stats kind of line up that way.
cantonjester
It is Best of Five..
bobtillman
Think it goes all the way, with the Rays 9-headed starter winning the finale; didn’t we just see the Padres? Either way, probably the most entertaining series.
WiffleBall
This is the kind of series that could swing on fortune. For everyone pointing to the Yanks’ struggles against them this year, i’d say that many key Yankees didn’t play in a lot of those contests, and Sanchez was catching Cole.
I think the teams are very well-matched, and for the sake of baseball, I hope it goes 5, and even into extras in the final game. That would be fun as hell, and make me care a lot more in a season I generally don’t give a **** about.
Louiebeans
As long as Brett Gardner is in this lineup I’m going with the Rays.
I’m sure this piece of garbage will find himself in the number three hole in a key situation and strikout.
I been say this for years now. Yankees won’t win another world series as long as Brett Garbage is on this team. I been right so far for 10+ years
mlb1225
Quite harsh for a guy who was an above average hitter and defender this year.
DarkSide830
.223 AVG is not average, and if that is average its still not good enough for a WS contender.
mlb1225
.747 OPS, 108 OPS+, 110 wRC+, 110 DRC+, .332 wOBA. Not saying he’s a silver slugger or anything, but above average by every metric expect for BA and slugging %.
Joggin’George
You can’t judge a hitter on that one stat alone. And he was a 108 OPS+ hitter which is literally 8% ABOVE average so…
mlb1225
I listed five different stats, not just OPS+. Ok, he was slightly above average, but above average nonetheless. If you want more, ok: his .354 was well above the .322 league average, was league average in tems of exit velo and hard hit rate, and his strikeout rate was above average.
SoCalBrave
Pretty sure Cosmodeus is replying to DarkSide830 and agreeing with you.
Joggin’George
Yep. I’m agreeing with mlb1225
mlb1225
I see that now. Wish replies to comments were a little more easier to sort.
Yankee Clipper
In addition to all the work 1225 did, the other thing I love about Gardy are his intangibles. Dude has so much heart and passion. He doesn’t ever lag on a play, unlike, say, Sanchez.
Roll
So is .225 AVG? because that is what your starting CF hit during the season. #HicksNotGoodEnough
How about .147 because that is what your starting C is hitting during the season #SanchezNotGoodEnough
wait thats 1/3 of your starting lineup thats not good enough … if you only get 2/3 right you get a 67 which is an F …. are Fails good enough for a world series contender? …. maybe #YankeesNotGoodEnough
Yes im being sarcastic but looking at one tiny thing makes arguments silly.
GP John
What??
Rocket32
Louiebeans Did your girlfriend cheat on you with Brett Gardner or something? Every time I see you post on here you’re trashing Brett Gardner. You might want to work on this obsession of yours. Find something new, the Gardner hating is stale.
Chasefor28
Lmao.. this is such a horrible take.. if the yankees lose it WILL NOT be because of brett freaking gardner.
SoCalBrave
I said when they lost Johnny Damon that they would never win another world series and I also have been right so far for 10+ years.
fox471 Dave
I said when Lou Gehrig retired , the Yankees would not win a Series for 10 years sometime.
Woodlawn
Legit comment. Gardner stinks and should be put to pasture. Yanks should have cut this dead weight years ago
Srechter35
Ahhh yet again, the bizarre Gardner hatred from old school yankees fans. I’ve said it before, but I’m exceptionally thankful that these guys don’t actually make decisions. Cosmodeus, mlb1225, you guys are so obviously right that it hurts you even need to cite clear statistics supporting what should be an unarguable fact: Gardner is a useful, occasionally high-end player, and has been one for many, many years.
Yankee Clipper
I am an old school Yankee fan and like Gardy. I get frustrated with his performance at times, like many fans with many players, but c’mon, he’s not that bad. He has been clutch. Honestly, I’ve been far more frustrated with Sanchez.
antsmith7
Yankees
PapiElf
Since the games are in San Diego, this series plays right into what the Rays do. They’re bullpen is arguably one of the best in baseball and the starters Snell and Glasnow are really good too. They don’t give up a lot of home runs which will be even less in a ballpark like Petco. The Yankees really take advantage of the short porch at Yankee Stadium but that’s not there in Petco. I got the Rays in 4.
DrDan75
Petco park has a short right field porch. I have seen many fly balls carry out over there. The rest of it is pretty big. It’s also right by San Diego bay, which means you get the marine air coming in. A player has to really hammer it to get it out.
sidewinder11
Petco isn’t as pitcher friendly as it used to be. The construction in the area along with the tinkering of the outfield walls have lessened the advantage for pitchers.
mlb1225
Yankees batters vs Rays pitchers:
.218/.301/.388, 88 wRC+
Yankees pitchers vs Rays batters:
4.84 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 4.37 xFIP
Rays batters vs Yankees pitchers:
.221/.318/.442, 108 wRC+
Rays pitchers vs Yankees batters:
3.39 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 4.28 xFIP
Season series:
8-2 Rays
Rangers29
Those are some ugly numbers on both sides though I think the Rays edge it out.
mlb1225
Yea, not the best, but the Rays pitching vs the Yankees isn’t half bad. They’re also above average vs them. Yankees have to really step it up if they want to win.
Rangers29
What I take from all the stats you put up is that the Rays are just the better team (if I had italics it would be used on “team”). Low ERA, but a high FIP and xFIP, that means that the pitchers might be ehh, but the defense has been keeping runner put. Pitching will definatley be the x factor in this offense heavy series.
Chasefor28
Yankees hit Snell, Glasnow was lit up when he faced a full Yankees lineup, Tanaka dominates the Rays..
Yankees were missing DJ, Judge and Stanton for one series… judge, stanton, gleyber for another…
Ford, Estrada, Wade, Mercer, Tauchman won’t be playing in this series.. you can’t take anything away from their regular season games.. and there were still a couple games where the Yankees were up late and should’ve won.
It will be a tough series, mo doubt.. but people acting like the Yankees are the underdogs are crazy..
Rangers29
Rays in 5. Yanks win the Cole start, but it is hard for me to look at the next two pitching match ups and say the Yanks have the advantage. I just don’t see the Rays winning three straight after the first Cole start.
All I know is that all of these series will have my attention this week. Are the Marlins the miracle team? Do the Astros have playoff mojo? Will the Rays out-manage the Yanks? Who will win the powerhouse Padres-Dodgers series? So many great games.
wild bill tetley
A’s and Astros better hope these two teams go the full 5 and have the battle to end all battles. These are the two best teams in the AL and the other two teams have no business beating them. The consequences of the expanded playoff.
jjd002
The “expanded playoff” got the Yankees in the playoffs….
wild bill tetley
Then all roads would lead through Tampa. That still does not change the fact that the Yankees are better than every central and west team when near-healthy.
everlastingdave
Full-strength Yanks in five.
justacubsfan
Yankees batters get it done. They beat down Bieber who was arguably the best pitcher in the AL. Cole shines as well (2 wins incoming). East coast Money ball dies here.
Philliesfan4life
Bieber also pitched against weak teams in the al central, The al east was the best divsion in baseball this year imo. Rays were the best team in the AL for a reason. I think their pitching will shut down the yankees. Plus having a lights out bullpen
sidewinder11
The AL central isn’t as weak as you make it out to be. The Twins and White Sox had 2 of the best lineups in baseball this year. Detroit and KC were weak, but the Yankees got just as many games vs. Boston and Baltimore, who were just as weak (if not worse).
Chasefor28
The Twins were an average offense.. 101 wRC+, .741 OPS..
Briffle2
Central was trash. Got dominated in the playoffs.
whyhayzee
The yankees are far and away the biggest cheaters in the history of baseball and mlb will do everything humanly possible to help them win. The Rays have zero chance in this fake season series. Who cares?
Mrtwotone
Evidence?
LordD99
The Rays are the favorites going in, and for good reason. They, along with the Dodgers, are considered the best-run organization. Rays won a tough division, finished seven ahead of the Yankees, beat them winning 8 of ten, even beat them up at Yankee Stadium. They’re favored, rightly, going in and expected to win.
That said, this is baseball and I’m a contrarian. Also, the Yankees play poorly in Tampa, so moving to a neutral site will help them.
Yankees in three.
Chasefor28
Yankees hit Snell.. Glasnow got lit up against Yankees A lineup.. they won’t be facing Ford, Wade, Estrada, Mercer or Tauchman this series..
Judge, Stanton, DJ missed one series..
Judge, Stanton, Gleyber missed another series..
The Yankees are actually the favorites.
And Petco will help Happ
The Human Toilet
Rays in 5, There is just so many ways they can beat you.
This will be a fun series to watch, no doubt.
Philliesfan4life
Plus didn’t the rays beat up on Cole this year more then once?
bronxbombers
That was Cole with Sanchez catching he’s elevated to a sub 1 ERa with higashioka. Plus historically Cole is a slow starter through 10 starts and then hits his stride. Rays never faced him after first week of august.
yandymania
Cole was good after he didnt have to face the Rays anymore, I agree
Marvels MagaMan
Rays in 6.
They’ve played each other a lot this year so not like there’s any surprises both teams have left.
I like the rays depth more than the Yankees.
Think it will come down to rotation and who gets the most out of their openers/starters.
Rays definitely have a lot more different matchups out of the pen.
Robertowannabe
Might agree with you if it were a best of 7………it is only best of 5 Bro………..
hd-electraglide
Looking forward to this series.
Rays in 6
phantomofdb
You betting on a tie?
hd-electraglide
Not a bad idea…. meant Rays in 5..
GarryHarris
Petco Stadium favors the Ray’s pitching.
ctguy
Yankees in 5. It will be a good matchup. The Rays are definitely a tougher opponent than Cleveland.
Chasefor28
Yankees hit Snell, Glasnow was lit up when he faced a full Yankees lineup, Tanaka dominates the Rays..
Yankees were missing DJ, Judge and Stanton for one series… judge, stanton, gleyber for another…
Ford, Estrada, Wade, Mercer, Tauchman won’t be playing in this series.. you can’t take anything away from their regular season games.. and there were still a couple games where the Yankees were up late and should’ve won.
It will be a tough series, mo doubt.. but people acting like the Yankees are the underdogs are crazy..
fitsiqis65
As a Yankee fan I would just like to have more confidence in the arms other than Cole and Tanaka…. it makes me nervous as good pitching usually beats good hitting
DrDan75
All of the division playoffs are between division rivals who don’t really like each other. All of the games are going to be dogfights.
As for this one, Rays in 5
NY_Yankee
I am a diehard Yankee fan, but I am picking Tampa Bay.
Ducky Buckin Fent
See now… that’s not exactly how I would use the term “diehard Yankee fan”, @NY_Yankee.
Anyway.
Yanks in 4.
Mrtwotone
It might just be the rolling rock talking I’m on vacation and I like to day drink on my rare time off but, the rays in 4 games
mlbnyyfan
Rays in 5. Dodgers and Rays in WS. Dodgers in 4. Easiest WS ever much like the NBA finals. Lakers and Dodgers have it easy this year.
retire21
Losbravos, don’t knock the Rock!
From the glass-lined tanks of old Latrobe…
Bigtimeyankeefan
As a die hard Yankee fan, I can honestly say that this series makes me nervous. While Yankees are basically healthy and should play better against Rays, the Rays do all the little things to win and their top 3 starters are great.
jimmertee
Yankees all the way.
stansfield123
It amazes me that people think the Rays are better than the Yankees. Literally NO ONE thought that three months ago. No one.
And what changed since three months ago? The Yankees went on a losing streak in the middle of the season when most of their team was on the IL. But they’re not on the IL anymore. Britton and Chapman came back months ago and are both pitching amazingly well, and the hitters who came back and struggled in the regular season crushed the Indians. And the Indians have good pitching, they gave up fewer runs than the Rays this year.
Only weakness the Yankees have is defense. But that’s something Boone can manage around. He has very strong defenders on the bench, at every position. That’s not by accident, that’s by design. They’ve been planning for this team for years, and it’s finally here. There’s no excuse this year.
lowtalker1
Starters are weak outside of Cole
BloodySox
It doesn’t matter what people thought 3 months ago… Rays won the division, pounded the Yankees during regular season and have a much better rotation.
lowtalker1
Rays
Especially if their elite pitching can hold their violent offense
BenjiB24
Booooo yankees!