With the 2020 regular season having reached its end, there will be more and more talk about free agency during the upcoming weeks. MLBTR has already taken a look at the catchers, first basemen and shortstops due to reach the open market soon. We’ll now turn to the shortstop position, where a few household names are without contracts for 2021.
Top of the Class
- DJ LeMahieu (32): LeMahieu went a half decade between his 2014 appearance at third base with the Rockies and last year’s return to the position (on a part-time basis). He’s still only played 487 innings there over the past two seasons, but the way LeMahieu’s bat has exploded in the Bronx, a team would surely be comfortable moving him off his best position, second base, in order to get his bat in the lineup. Since signing in New York, LeMahieu has posted an outrageous .336/.386/.586 slash with 36 home runs, 43 doubles and four triples in 871 plate appearances. He’s also regarded as a plus defender at second base and has experience at first base and shortstop as well.
- Justin Turner (36): Turner will be 36 in November, but he just keeps on raking at the plate. He posted a 140 wRC+ in 2020, slashing .307/.400/.450 in 175 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+ he’s been at least 32 percent better than a league-average hitter in all but one season since 2014 — he was “only” 23 percent better in 2016 — and he carries an overall .302/.382/.503 slash in more than 3000 plate appearances since landing in Los Angeles. Durability is something of a concern, and Turner’s once-excellent glovework has begun to deteriorate, but he’s still an outstanding offensive player. Age probably limits him to a short-term deal, which will actually be seen as a perk for some interested parties.
Potential Regulars
- Tommy La Stella (32): La Stella has gone from light-hitting Cubs utilityman to an above-average hitter who teams might be willing to try as a regular at multiple positions. Since Opening Day 2019, he’s taken 549 plate appearances and delivered a .289/.356/.471 batting line while playing his home games in pitcher-friendly settings. That’s good for a 125 wRC+. La Stella isn’t a top-notch defender, but he can handle second and third base. He’s a much better hitter against righties, but La Stella did hold his own against southpaws in 2019.
- Jake Lamb (30): Multiple shoulder injuries relegated Lamb to “reclamation project” status when the D-backs released him this summer, but he immediately bounced back with the A’s. It was only 49 plate appearances, but Lamb looked like his old self, slashing .267/.327/.556 with three big flies in 49 plate appearances. At the very least, that showing could earn him a one-year, make-good deal that he can try to use as a launching pad into a multi-year pact next winter. Lamb can play either corner infield spot, although he fits best on a team who can give him a right-handed-hitting platoon partner.
Part-Time/Utility Players
- Ehire Adrianza (31): Adrianza was a solid utility piece for the Twins from 2017-19, but his bat cratered in 2020 when he hit .191/.287/.270 in 101 plate appearances. The bat has never been great, but he’s played everywhere except center field and catcher with Minnesota (including two innings on the mound).
- Asdrubal Cabrera (35): Cabrera isn’t a shortstop anymore, but he keeps hitting and is capable of playing second base as well as both infield corners. He’s commanded one-year deals the past few winters and will probably be in line for another one this winter.
- Marwin Gonzalez (32): Gonzalez hit well after a slow start with the 2019 Twins, but he never got into a groove in 2020. The veteran utilityman can play any of the four infield spots and both outfield corners, but he has rather unsurprisingly never replicated his 2017 season with the Astros.
- Josh Harrison (33): Harrison had a nice 91-plate appearance run with the Nats in 2020, hitting .278/.352/.418. He’s been inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, but Harrison has a mostly solid track record and can play all over the diamond.
- Adeiny Hechavarria (32): A glove-first utility option who can pick it at shortstop, second base or third base, Hechavarria hit .254/.302/.305 in 63 plate appearances with the 2020 Braves and is a lifetime .253/.291/.351 hitter.
- Brock Holt (33): The 2020 season was a nightmare for the versatile Holt. He looked like an underappreciated free agent last winter despite a .286/.366/.407 slash from 2018-19, and this year’s .211/.283/.274 output won’t help his cause.
- Brad Miller (31): Miller can play all four infield spots and either outfield corner. He hit well in 2020 and owns a combined .247/.329/.468 line in 595 plate appearances dating back to 2018. He’s slugged 27 homers and doubles apiece in that time, tacking on four triples.
- Joe Panik (30): Panik is a lifetime .269/.334/.380 hitter with a good glove at multiple infield spots, but his big 2015 season with the Giants looks like a clear outlier. Since he wrapped up that stellar campaign, he’s turned in a combined .255/.324/.366 slash in 2123 plate appearances. Injuries have played a part, but at this point he’s a glove-first utility player.
Players with 2021 Options
- Todd Frazier, $5.75MM club option with $1.5MM buyout (35): It’s hard to see the Mets picking up the Toddfather’s option after he hit .236/.302/.382 between Texas and New York in 2020.
- Jedd Gyorko, $4.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (32): Gyorko can play all four infield spots and batted .248/.333/.504 with nine homers with the Brewers. His option would seem likely to be picked up in a normal winter, but the Brewers made some surprising option decisions a year ago. With revenue losses throughout the league and several players expected to be non-tendered, Milwaukee might feel a similar skill set can be found more affordably.
- Eric Sogard, $4.5MM club option with $500K buyout (35): The Brewers aren’t going to pick this up after Sogard hit just .209/.281/.278 in his return to Milwaukee. Sogard had a very nice 2019 campaign between Toronto and Tampa Bay, but he looks like a rebound candidate again.
Could the Giants try to reunite with Joe Panik and Ehire Adrianza? Now that they’re both proven players, the Giants could try to get some veterans for a team next year that probably won’t be as competitive as this year.
DJ probably coming back to Yankees at 3 years for 50. Does Anyone want Andujar let’s make a deal
Given his production and versatility, I could definitely see a team offering him more that 16.5 AAV. Either way, Andujar is not gunna bring back anything worth what you think he will if you are throwing him out as a headline. Probably a 45 FV A+ guy would be the best you’d get.
Lynn and Montero for Andujar and Clarke Schmidt, let’s make a deal.
Steve Nebraska, is it too early to say we’ve already seen the best of Andujar. He looks more than a little lost.
Probably too early considering he’s only 25, but his value is currently the lowest it’s ever been, so naturally Yankees fans think it’s a good time to sell.
Andujar’s value could not be lower at the moment. I have been watching him since the low minors and like him very much. No reason to trade him for what they would get at the moment. He can hit and work on his D. Hey Frazier isn’t worth anything… all Yankee fans are delusional…
..and we want Montero ..why????? And Lynn had a 4.77 era for NY in 2018…..his career era away from NY is 3.40. And we want Lynn…why ????
That’s why you don’t hang on to certain players. While his bat can return, Andujar has shown nothing to suggest he’ll be able to man ANY position. Give him more time in the OF and his warts will show there too. Even if his bat rebounds, where does he play in NY? Right now he’s nothing more than intriguing throw in and needs to come to spring training and prove himself all over again. He does that and his value to both NY as insurance and to other clubs picks up. One more lousy season and he could find himself off the 40 man roster given the Yankees depth.
On a 3 year deal DJ is worth at least 60-80M. His versatility plus winning the batting title and an OPS of 972 over the last two years. 2/50 is probably more likely.
What about Evan’s contract? That is a lot of money to pay not to play.
why?
This feels like the reclamation project of the reclamation project of the original reclamation project for Lamb-
He is not a starter by any means
Lefthand-hitting Jake Lamb, a Seattle native and University of Washington product, could return home to platoon with designated hitter Ty France and first baseman Evan White, who bat from the right side.
Or not.
Jake Lamb needs to have a good postseason, or he could be looking at a minor league contract with an invite to spring training.
You’re not the only one who has been thinking about that possibility.
I know money talks, but I just don’t see anyway Turner leaves LA. He and his wife have become so ingrained in the city through their charitable work, and he is beloved by fans and the team alike. Give him a 2 yr contract, let him play some 1B and DH if the universal DH sticks around, then let him ride off into the sunset wearing Dodger blue
Yeah, they love some Pop Tart out in L.A. He’s gonna retire in Dodger Blue.
adambnicholas, Turner is the free agent the Dodgers are most likely to keep. In addition to his charity work, he is still a productive player and a major clubhouse influence. My guess is that he gets a short-term deal and remains in the organization when his playing days are over. A baseball lifer and a fantastic humanitarian.
Yeah I foresee a 2 year/$36M pact between the Dodgers and Turner, make that 4 year/$64M deal into a 6 year/$100M overall contract. A very fair value for what he brings to the table and not such a long commitment to look like an albatross at any point.
Not only is that he’s a hell of a player, or that he’s a beach boy and a fan, it is the intangibles he represents and offer to the team. I think a two-year contract is fair. Can anyone imagine him in another team?
I can imagine him on the Orioles and the Mets.
The Braves really need to upgrade at third base but I don’t think they will land Turner. I can’t see the Braves offering more than a 2 year offer which several teams will probably offer. He’d probably except a home town discount to continue playing where he wants and I certainly DON’T see the Braves offering enough in AAV to tempt him away, let alone beating other team offers.
I think the Braves stick with Riley and don’t sign anyone for 3b. His strikeout decreased by about 13% and his walk rate went up by 2.4%. Overall line isn’t where you want it, but he’s showing improvements in his plate discipline.
I’m kinda surprised he got such negative defensive ratings. Whenever I watched I thought he played pretty good. Made all the routine plays and he surprised me a few times with some pretty good plays.
I agree with the sentiments Turner doesn’t want to leave LA and La doesn’t want to lose him. He’s consistent on the field, in the playoffs and fantastic in the community. I could see 2+ option or something, but with the DH seemingly hanging around, I can’t see LA losing him.
16M-18M seems like a fair Number. Cruz got 14M aav and is only a dh. Add in 3B and the others, I can see the extra money to get it done after WS, before FA starts
I think they’ll wind up keeping him but I’m not sure he’s really worth $18M/year. I mean even by your comparison… sure Cruz is ‘just’ a DH but he’s by far the better offensive player. I’d also expect Turner to be willing to take a ‘hometown discount’ to stay in LA and as such wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up somewhere around 2/$25M. On the open market he might get closer to the $18M AAV though… so you could be right. I’m just not entirely sure he’s really worth that much, at least not to me if I were a GM of another team besides LA. In LA his value might be greater than just his on-field numbers… so if it winds up taking 2/$36M to keep him… I suppose the Dodgers might pony up.
It’s a few things
I added a bit for him being younger
I added a bit for him being able to play 3B, well, possibly 1B, at least 100(?) games a year for 2-3 years
Added a little for him being LAD defacto captain. Added a little for him not having the PED stuff (I think it holds Cruz’s earning back even still).
Added a little to get him to sign now and not test FA (assuming it happens btwn WS and FA opening or close thereafter, ala kershaw/Jansen etc)
So not one thing. But there’s reasons lol
Jake Lamb seems like a good candidate to be a 1b platoon with Ronald Guzman in Texas, though I doubt they will want to platoon any of their young guys because they want to give them as many opportunities as possible.
Two of the top four are former Cubs… but they don’t need players who can get on base.
Thought the same thing. I’d take DJ over Krissy in a heartbeat
Cue the “the offense is broke” and “we are going to take a good hard look” and “expect the line up to look very different next season” press conference.
Bryant probably has no trade value now unless they pay part of his salary because he’ll be making over $20 million. Should the Cubs just non-tender him now (hey, he wins the grievance retroactively) or hope for the best in 2021 (rebound season that will at least get a prospect at the deadline if they’re not competitive)?
They can non-tender Kyle, too. And with Lester, Q, and Chatwood all free agents, they would have >$60 million to spend this offseason if they choose to spend that much.
No Sandoval?
Yeah I’m surprised, he was bad this year but I’d still consider him noteworthy enough to put on this list, especially when they put Adrianza on here.
Panda plays first and DH now.
Allowing LeMahieu to walk has turned into a disaster for the Rockies. For all their problems these last two years, that doesn’t get mentioned enough.
Since age will probably limit Turner to a short-term deal, my guess (and hope) is that the Dodgers will resign him on a short commitment. With the DH possibly staying permanently in the NL, re-signing him makes a lot of sense. He can play 3B, 2B, DH and even 1B.
As Rex “The Wonder Dog ” Hudler would say…
“La Stella is a stud. He is pumping meeeee up” puff puff pass.
And don’t forget, it was the Cubs who first gave up on him and traded him for zippo. Le Mahieu sure would have looked good playing 2B for the Cubbies this year instead of what they ran out there.
Of the players on the author’s list, only LeMahieu is a worthwhile FA signing as an everyday player . The rest, with Justin Turner a possible exception, all have way too many pimples.
But the Yankees aren’t gonna let arguably their most consistent player over the past two years walk away without a fight.
Prediction Dept.: LeMahieu re-ups with the Yankees. Five years at about $15M to $17M per year.
I am far from the biggest DJL fan here, but there’s no way he only gets 15M, unless he gets a crazy 5/6 year deal, like Harper lowering his AAV for tax hit. 17M AAV imo is like the bare min, on a reasonable 3-4 year deal
He’s 32. This is his last big deal. He’s coming off a great platform, unlike last time in FA. he won’t be cheap and may be overpaid
I think 20M is a reasonable guess after 2 good NYY years. Like I said elsewhere, i believe if someone pays him 25M+ Aav, they’re gonna regret it
He feels like a met waiting to happen. Lol. We shall see
Nah, the Mets only sign FAs who get hurt and/or underperform their contracts.
Even at age 32, I could see LeMahieu getting $50M over three years. Middle infielders on the north side of 30 usually don’t age well (Kinsler, Kipnis, Utley, Panik, Segura), but ya gotta start two of them each game.
A team could do a whole lot worse than LeMahieu.
Braves should be aggressive for DJ. They need to replace Riley, Markakis, and hopefully Duvall.
I was wondering if Madison Bumgarner could play third. Or maybe we could trade Acuna to the Cardinals to get Tommy Edmund. Oh but you’re right. Acuna is overrated. We’d have to give up a couple extra pieces for that. You said Fried is more of a no.2 or 3 so maybe those two to get Edmund? >=}
Fried is not an ace under he goes out there and wins a big game against a good team. But he is the best Braves pitcher so I’ll give you that.
I’d still take Bum over everybody in the organization not named Fried, Anderson, and Soroka. We will see how well Wright pitches. No excuse to lose to the Marlins. None!
Is Bauer an ace? Because Fried matched him pitch for pitch. Sure he didn’t win the game, but it’s not his fault the Braves didn’t score a single run for him.
Has anyone seen the guy who predicted the NL Central would win all four wild card series? He’s 0-3 so far. In six losing games, the Reds, Brewers, and Cubs combined to score three runs. Will the Cardinals reverse the trend? Also, what does this say about the plight of the Pittsburgh Pirates?
When I saw Jake Lamb playing for ARZ, he always seemed to be loafing. There were a few batted balls the INF didn’t play cleanly that he could’ve beaten out had he made more an effort right out of the gate. Instead, the INF recovered and he was an easy out at 1B.
I haven’t seen him in OAK; I assume that any lack of effort won’t be tolerated with the A’s.
He better not take it easy in Oakland. Last time a player did that Melvin had him on the bench rest of the game.
That is one s**t tier free agent list for 3B
eh… Lemahieu is pretty damn good, even if his stats are propped up by Yankee Stadium, Turner is still pretty good, even though he is old, and La Stella can definitely play. I wouldn’t call that a s**t list.
Not much depth though, and I think a lot of teams may hold off this year in order to get to next year’s loaded third base class.
If you’re a Braves fan, you know what to expect here. DJ and Turner are pipe dreams for various reasons. I think at the top of realistic expectations is La Stella who came up with the Braves but from what I understand, the A’s are interested in signing him as well. My personal expectations, which would probably be a let down for most of us, would be Todd Frazier assuming the Mets don’t pick up his option or someone else around that ilk. Nothing exciting to look at here.
To quote Rookie of the Year, I am so sick of hearing about Todd Frazier!
Why would the Braves sign Frazier when they can get about the same production from Riley, while giving him a chance to continue to grow? I don’t see the Braves signing a 3b.
If I’m D’J’Le’May-hoooo-ooh-ooh (my personal nickname for the guy) I think playing in Yankee stadium half the season with that line up protection, that atmosphere, etc. is kismet for my baseball stats and legacy. Seems like a perfect fit.
I feel like I hear people often suggest a ceiling of like 2 years/$36M or 3 years/$60M and I don’t get how people under value him this much. He did win a batting title even before dropping off enough for the Yankees to sign him to such a budget friendly deal.
I also realize someone might be nuts enough to offer him like 3 years/$100M or 4 years/$110M or something.
I’d like to see him re-sign with the Yankees for 3 years/$81M guarantee that could go as high as 4 years/$100-107M but have it *heavily* front loaded to account for his first two seasons getting under paid and assuming he won’t just keep this up forever:
2021: $35M
2022: $22.5M
2023: $22.5M
w/ $1M buyout on a
2024: $27M team option that can turn into a $20M player option if DJL exercises it himself.
Total potential Yankee deal: 5 years/$105M or 6 years/$124-131M.
Good luck with that. He’s not a 30M player to me
If his 19/20 numbers were repeated every season? Sure. But they’re not and he’s not getting younger
Congrats on your math. I didn’t value him as a $30M AAV player. I valued him as a $27M AAV player. And if he isn’t a $30M AAV player, who exactly is?
I’ve always wondered these semantics. How is Anthony Rendon worth his $35M AAV contract over 7 seasons and DJ LeMahieu is not worth that over 3-4 seasons?
BTW:
Rendon’s 2019 WAR: 7.0 DJL’s 2019 WAR: 5.4
Rendon’s 2020 WAR: 1.8 DJL’s 2020 WAR: 2.9
Assume you can inflate 2020 by a multiple of 2.5 for normal total games played and Rendon goes to 4.5 WAR while DJL goes to 7.3 WAR.
Average across 2 seasons for Rendon: 5.8 WAR and DJL: 6.4 WAR
Why is he SO undervalued? Honestly. How can he be SO undervalued while a guy like Rendon isn’t? Just to name a kinda comparable player who got paid full freight while DJL keeps being suggested at bargain bin prices.
Simple answers
He is younger, his overall career stats are better, does not have the yankee protection lineup that everyone knows inflates numbers, doesnt have the rockies hitter stigma on him, he signed his contract after he was a key component of getting and winning a world series that year, regularly plays a prime position.
I love DJ and i think he adds a ton overall to a team off the field, you can easily argue why Rendon is getting more money. Because of age alone i think you have a limit on what he will make and i think 20-25M is about the right price for DJ per year. The Yankees simply do not have the available cap space to do that and the yankees are not going to value his contract at 30-35M (contract plus taxes) and losing picks especially when they have a lot more of the team to fill in for including 3/5 of the rotation.
You have to be realistic of what you can and cant do and unless you are cutting someone like judge or voit with their arb number going up quite a bit next year im sure along with torres i believe first time eligible.
Remember this past offseason was going to be their reset tax year with so many of their future players still making small amounts.
I understand that logic. I also get the DJL has the extra line up protection, but Rendon’s numbers were way down this season. So were Nolan Arenado’s, for that matter, and they signed for an average of $33.67M AAV over seven and eight more seasons that each have six years left on the deals and they’ve potentially both become minor question marks, while DJL has maintained- will Arenado and Rendon bounce back or are they on a modest decline? Will DJL continue ascending, level off at this current quality or also decline? Who knows. Only time will tell.
I also realize DJL was not a power guy until coming to NY and a lot of his power comes from the structure of Yankee stadium and the line up protection forcing pitchers to give him stuff to hit, rather than walking him and inducing funkier plays off his bat. I’ve looked at their respective numbers.
I agree that DJL doesn’t produce offense quite at their level, or didn’t until he came to NY. Doesn’t matter in my opinion. Lots of players get massive deals off career seasons and then come back down to earth, or their production levels off to very good but not other worldly. Again- they still get paid.
I just think there’s a weirdly massive gap between DJL’s assumed or projected $17-20M AAV contract when everybody seems to agree it’d only be for around 2-4 years and their respective $33.67M AAV goes for another six years.
I think DJL has a style of hitting and a defensive metric that predisposes him to continue doing well in Yankee stadium and in the Yankee line up, while it’s possible Arenado and Rendon have peaked or are currently peaking despite being 2-3 years younger than DJL, respectively.
So I get that maybe he’s not AS valuable as them at this moment, in terms of recent contract comparables and what the market bears. Also, obviously the Yankees offered DJL the 2 year/$24M deal and he took that deal because he was coming off a down season and his future was a question mark. It gave him financial security and gave the Yankees tremendous upside, without hogtying them financially. They’ve given plenty of guys 1-4 years for $12-13M as a stop gap measurement. Kevin Youkilis and Chase Headley immediately come to mind
Still- I think it’d be foolish for either side to walk away from this fruitful partnership and after the Yankees shelled out for Garret Cole and Aroldis at maximum values for their contribution and have done so for other key producers in their club, I can see them doing the same for DJL and I don’t think that max figure is $17-20M, or $18.5M AAV, which is less than 55% of Rendon and Arenado’s AAV.
I would say split the difference: 18.5 + 33.67 divided by 2 = 26.085M AAV. Round up to $27M AAV based on the assumption a lot of clubs would happily match that over a short contract of 2-4 years and you still get 3 years/$81M value, which is what I projected, with a 4th year option valued between $20-27M depending on various factors, which would be more than fair (also assuming we get the vaccine and can go back to baseball games and revenue streams go back up to afford the original contract values)
You’re using numbers after the fact to justify contracts signed. You have to look at when they are signed and details around it
Let’s look at last 5 years before signings, DJM now and Rendon pre 2020. That’s all the full seasons Rendon had pre FA. I’m sure you’re gonna say I’m choosing selective end dates to not include DJ’s batting title, but tbh, his 6 year numbers are actually worse by OPS+, 116 to 111
rendon: 136 games, 293/374/500/874. OPS+ 129
DJM: 125 games, 320/376/473/849. OPS+ 116
The bat is DJM strong suit and he’s still worse than rendon. Then add in lineup protection comment. Rendon was better in a lesser lineup/harder parks to hit
Then let’s look at war. Per fangraphs, even with this year DJM has 19.0 career war in 10 years. Rendon is at 35.4 in 8. That’s 4.425 WAR/yr for Rendon, and DJM, 1.9 WAR/yr
THEN add DJM is also 3 years older
So he has some great seasons, and some not so great seasons. He’s older. He’s been 1/2 the player per year Rendon has been overall
Where’s the confusion?
If DJM gets over 25M aav I will be very very surprised. He doesn’t have Rendons pedigree or age or health
Btw, pre yankee, DJM OPS+ for prior 5 years drops all the way to 96. He was below league average his 5 years before being a yankee…
4/100 for DJ Lemahieu is not out of the question. Teams needing a starting 2B or 3B (or 1B I guess) will bid for his services.
Moving away from Yankee Stadium and that line up won’t help LeMahieu’s stats. Still, he’s a very solid and versatile player who many teams would love to have even if his overall numbers take a slight dip with the move.
Not gonna take Rendon money to get him, but he’s, at minimum, a $15M per year player. Maybe a tad more if a team can afford the extra cheese.
Gut feeling is the Yankees ain’t gonna let their most consistent player over the past two years take a hike. However, if they do, the following teams would be wise to leap while the leaping is good.
1. His original team, the CUBS.
2. BREWERS (3B has been a black hole for them the past few years)
3. GIANTS (He could play 1B, 2B or 3B and be an upgrade in SF).
4. NATIONALS: They only have one reliable infielder (Trea Turner).
DJ is a natural line drive hitter. His stats might turn out ok. Age could be one factor in decline.
DJ will get overpaid in a lot of peoples’ eyes, but he’s probably the most valuable free agent on the market this winter. I could see 5 years, 80mil.