The Red Sox have 53 players that must be on the 40-man roster or else be cut or exposed to selection in the Rule 5 draft, writes Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. That’s quite the roster puzzle to put together, though it’s not so different from the roster quandaries that every team faces this time of year. Cotillo suggests that Connor Wong, Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario, Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, and Connor Seabold are the prospects Boston will add to to 40-man roster in the coming weeks. Outfielder Marcus Wilson is also a fair bet to make that list.
Some of the departures are easy to spot, such as free agent to be Jackie Bradley Jr., or DFA candidates like Jose Peraza, , Matt Hall, Zack Godley, Andrew Triggs, Cesar Puello, Tzu-Wei Lin. Dustin Pedroia is also a likely removal, despite the $12.125MM he is owed for 2021.
The fact is, the Red Sox more likely to move on from much more than just 13 players, the number it would take to get their 40-man roster down to 40. They’ll need space to add players, as well. Especially for a team like the Red Sox – given their place in the rebuilding cycle – they are more likely to add a flyer or two, as well as make a selection in the Rule 5 draft.
Of course, arbitration is a particularly tricky process this season, complicating DFA decisions, which the Athletic’s Chad Jennings runs down using projections from MLBTR’s Matt Swartz as a guide. Rafael Devers has an interesting case as he enters his first season of arbitration. His .263/.310/.483 line with 11 home runs in 57 games this season was somewhere between his best and worst campaign, but without knowing how arbitration panels will handle the shortened season, projecting his salary is anyone’s guess. Swartz pegs Devers as being in line for somewhere between $3.4MM and $6.3MM. That’s quite the spread for one player, which only highlights the struggle roster architects have ahead of them this winter.
IK hope they give Raffy what he deserves. He’s the future face of the franchise along with Xman..
Devers will never, ever be the face of the franchise. It will be Xander until Verdugo solidifies himself as a leader and star. Devers has a poor work ethic, makes lots of mental errors and seems to be following in Panda’s footsteps. Great clutch hitter but lacks the spark and motivation of a leader. It’s a shame because Devers does have a lot of natural talent as a hitter. He’ll improve upon his issues somewhat with age, but not enough to be the face of any franchise.
you’re missing the fact that Devers is so much more talented then Panda is/was. Panda might have been pretty good, but Devers has MVP potential and has already proven that.
There are not too many DHs that win MVPs. He needs to move to save 24 errors or more each year. Once a DH, MVP will be difficult but not impossible. Devers is too immature, self centered and lacks discipline to be a leader in the clubhouse. He can lead by example but Bogaerts is the leader now that Mookie is gone. JD won’t be around long so he’ll provide some until he goes. Sale will provide some and we need to see what type of guys Dalbec, Duran and Houck become. They could be future leaders.
Also, with 24 errors a year, it will be hard to win a MVP since there are so many better fielders that hit as well and are on winning teams.
It’s crazy how well we think we know these people. Newsflash: we don’t.
Rafael Devers has posted 8.2 fWAR in 392 games as he approaches his 24th birthday in a week:
fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?po…
Pablo Sandoval posted 7.3 fWAR in his first 346 games over three regular seasons that ended less than two months after his 24th birthday:
fangraphs.com/players/pablo-sandoval/5409/stats?po…
Each contributed to a World Series title at a young.
The career paths of Devers and Sandoval may diverge but they had similar production in their early MLB careers.
Yeah, I bet a lot of guys had similar stats to Devers and Sandoval early on in the history of baseball.
Why compare these two?
Totally irrelevant.
The stats were in response to the post that read: “Devers is so much more talented then Panda is/was. Panda might have been pretty good, but Devers has MVP potential and has already proven that.”
FWIW Rafael Devers finished 12th in the AL MVP voting in his age 22 season while Pablo Sandoval finished seventh in the NL MVP voting in his age 22 season.
No kidding (this is not intended to be sarcastic in any way. Rather, I am wholeheartedly agreeing with this unusually sane comment).
Where will JD Martinez be going?
Can’t compare Devers to Panda. At least I don’t see it. The problem to me is 2020 was just a 60 game schedule, the ball was juiced in 19 and Devers cannot play 3B. I still love his bat but for him to get $ms outside of a contract that locks him up long term is ludicrous.
Not a smart comment
Gee, low expectations you have for Devers! The Red Sox goal is to win as a team, not get Devers an MVP award. If moving any player to DH improves a teams chances, that’s what will happen, regardless of how it effects their votes for an individual award!
But immaturity usually passes after awhile; at least when it reflects on their game/stats/legacy as a player. I don’t see him as DH either, as last season he had a respectable timeframe of solid 3B play (I really see him more in the mold of Adrian Beltre after he left Seattle – I think he turns a corner at/just before he hits 28).
Remember, he’s young and he’ll need a coaching system that’s less “Snowflake friendly” (Reonicke came across as a coddler of players; Raffy needs a dad-like coach to get the best out of him. This is where Cora needs to be back in the picture).
2018 was Devers’ worst season and Cora was manager. That completely negates your comment. Roenicke used the exact same mothering approach that Cora used which by now it should be evident that it has no impact on players. Players have good years and bad years and no whispering in the ear is going to change that. Managers are there to set an example for the club, manage in game activities to some degree and to represent the organization to the media and fans.
Since the performance of players was credited to a manager when they won but Devers had his worst year and then the following year the manager was still there and everyone was bad compared to the prior year except Devers the ridiculous idea that pampering impacts performance was proven beyond a shadow of a doubt to be a myth.
Every Red Sox player had a good year and a lesser year while Cora was there and when replaced by Roenicke they all varied in their performance just like any normal fan would expect since no manager impacts player performance they impact in-game strategy and activities and they deal with the media after the game and before the game.
You don’t think Cora coddled Devers? Good grief. Cora is one of the biggest coddlers I’ve seen in all my years following the Sox. Devers simply does not have good baseball instincts. He makes a lot of mental errors. I think 1B is in his future, similar to Vlad, but I don’t see Devers ever fulfilling his potential and I certainly don’t see him as a leader..
I completely agree with you and I question whether he can play 1B. His skills say DH. Offense only, the opposite of JBJ. My issue is with his self centered behavior. He pouted in 2018 when he had a bad year. In 2019 he couldn’t stop smiling because he was so proud of himself. He swung for the fences when we need a base hit to win games. He cut off balls in front of Bogaerts in hopes of being a hero. He has lots of maturing to do.
Cora really had no skills other than coddling and media interface. He made lots of silly mistakes as a player and was even worse as a manager making in-game decisions. We need him to be in our rear-view mirror.
We need to move JD’s big salary and move Devers to DH so Dalbec and Casas can be our future corner infielders freeing up money for pitching (both SP and closer) and one big outfield bat. It’s time for Bloom to step up and make a couple of big acquisitions and a trade of JD where he doesn’t get pantsed like he did with Friedman.
Why compare the two? Because they have similarities that go beyond just the numbers, that’s why.
You’re right on Xander but wrong on Verdugo. Dougie should be a very nice everyday player but not the leader type.
Not the face of any franchise? The horror!
Verdugo will without doubt be a superstar.
He has a huge heart, he cares, he is patient to go with his power and arm.
Getting Mookie softens the blow for sure but Red Sox will do ok out of that trade.
Fever Pitch there is absolutely no evidence that Devers has a poor work ethic in fact most everyone that has been around him says he has a great work ethic.
Devers has the yips on defense it’s a simple as that it’s not his lack of work ethic, laughable, he can make spectacular defensive plays but then suddenly start making routine plays into errors. His throws seem to be the area of his angst and at times it looks like he tried to steer his throws. The problem is while I think he has the ability to play a very good defensive third base time is running out on the amount of errors that he continues to make. He simply has to get that under control or he has to moved off of third. Next year is going to be huge for Devers and if he can get over his mental yips at third.
The time to move him should have been years ago. His pattern of a horrendous year followed by improvement followed by improvement followed by reverting back to where he started has lasted 7 years counting the minors. His .928 fielding percentage in the majors is lower than his fielding percentage in the minors and neither was close to league average.
When a guy is so incredibly bad once every three years he can fool people into thinking he’s improving because for a year or two he gets better but he’s still far below league average. His occasional lucky grab doesn’t off set and never has off set the number of routine balls blown. 7 years is too long to ignore. He should have been moved to 1B at a young age in hopes of making him something other than a DH. It’s probably too late now because we’ve all seen that his hands are not good and his reaction time is slow. Putting him in the field anywhere will be a risk. Best case, if he keeps the weight off, he could play left field in Fenway if he can prove he can catch fly balls but if we go by his performance on pop ups at 3B the answer is likely to be no, fly balls are like ground balls, he won’t consistently be good at fielding them or even average.
His tools say DH and his range factor is completely skewed by his selfishness. If he doesn’t cut in front of Bogaerts as often as he does unsuccessfully his range factor decreases, Bogaerts goes up and Bogaert’s defensive metrics improve. Moving Devers is a win for the team and a win for Bogey’s defensive metrics. Our fielding might rank in the top 5 without Devers at 3B.
You make it sound like Devers is Chuck Knoblauch.
“Devers’ error Saturday came on a routine groundball to third base. He failed to force out the runner at second base. His throw was late. It should have been a 5-4-3 double play to end the inning but turned into a bases loaded, one-out situation. Devers also made an error to begin the sixth inning Thursday. On Wednesday, he failed to tag out Kevin Pillar heading to third base on a chopper — another play he should have made”
Kevin man I’m agreeing with you on some levels Devers can’t have as many as many errors as he has had and remain at third. You also no that he is going to be the third baseman going into next year and there simply hasn’t been anyone better suited for the job when factor in offense. He will be the third baseman to start next year but my prediction is if he starts with the errors again next year this will be his last at third.
Where we differ Kevin is I think that Devers errors are almost entirely die to the throwing yips he has developed. His athleticism, quickness, reactions are plenty good for third. He doesn’t cut off Bogey and if he does it would be one of those crazy Bogey trying to do the Jeter throw from deep short towards third. He has range you are wrong there but his penchant for angst errors will probably move him off third . His time is running out at this point just too many errors.
A big part of work ethic involves conditioning. “The live feeds the team has provided on social media have shown a sluggish third baseman who repeatedly makes mistakes. That was at least the third error that Devers has committed in summer camp scrimmages and they have mostly been the result of being a step too slow. Either he wasn’t quick enough to make a tag or he didn’t execute fast enough to make a throw on time. These aren’t the mental lapses that young players occasionally stumble through, the errors that Devers has been making suggest the problem is with his physical conditioning.”
I guess we see to different guys the guy see hustles for fly balls is surprisingly athletic and quick for a big guy. I also see a guy who makes too many errors that I believe come from his angst of throwing to first base. Almost all of his bobbles seem to be looking up to early Statcast seems to agree with my assessment because they have his range as very good makes tough plays has the arm to play third no doubt his OAA seems to agree. Saying that Devers isn’t athletic enough to play third is laughable but saying that he has made too many errors to stay there then that’s a legit argument he simply cannot make as many errors as he has.
Bruin012, or should I say Joel, you continue to over-estimate Devers physical abilities. Watch replays of Devers versus other 3Bs and watch where the baseball is when Devers makes his first motion toward the ball. He reacts at approximately 45 ft then watch almost any other 3B and stop action when they first move, most move at 30 ft. The split second difference is part of why Devers isn’t a good fielder and never will be. His reaction time is slow, his baseball acumen is low and he does cut in front of Bogaerts a lot more than he should, his ability to charge slow rollers makes him look heavy and sluggish and he’s seldom successful compared to quicker more limber 3Bs, his arm is terribly inaccurate for an MLB player and he has no backhand. He plays so deep due to his inability to react and as a result he either gets a lucky stab on his back-hand or it hits the heal of his glove and they give the batter a hit. Most of the other 3Bs in baseball catch the ball because they play closer to the plate, have quicker hands and throw out the runner with more accurate arms. He kills the Red Sox fielding percentage and destroys the confidence of their pitchers who are trying to make sure balls aren’t hit down 3B.
You are right that he’ll start in 2021 at 3B because the Red Sox have shown no ability to fairly evaluate his play but you can’t confuse that with him earning the spot, he’s been given the spot without earning it. He’s an excellent hitter with no position to play due to his total lack of fielding skills. Any skills you see are based on you being a fan of his not actual skills. He is the epitome of bad defense at 3B. Bad hands, bad footwork, over=weight, slow reaction time, can’t bare hand slow rollers and can’t accurately throw. Those are his skills.
You argue that Devers cuts in front of Xander but yet you also argue he has really poor reactions. He must be the fastest man alive to be able to have poor reactions and still cut in front of Xander like you say he does you can’t have it both ways which one is it he is so fast that he can still cut across Xander or he has better reaction times then you give him credit for. Choose one.
Joel I miss these types of attacks. Watch video so I don’t have to explain the issue. Almost any game can be chosen, Devers makes that many mistakes.
Lefty is up but there is no shift. Devers isn’t in his right handed hitter fielding position deep along the line, he’s near the grass even with the bag and off the line. A three hopper is hit directly at the shortstop and the average 3B evaluates whether the play is easier for Bogey or himself. The average 3B says Bogey since it’s right at him and he’ll have forward momentum to 1B. Devers, not really thinking just wanting to be the hero chooses to cut to his left in hopes of stretching for the ball then throwing off balance with his momentum going toward 2B to get the hitter. His distance to the ball is greater than most plays since it is slowly hit In the meantime, the quicker SS is charging from his deep spot at SS and sees the 3B going for the cut-off so he stops as any good team mate would rather than run into the 3B. This action used to be called ‘ball hogging’ and was frowned on by team mates. But since Bogey and Devers are close nothing probably gets said when he makes the bonehead move.
Here are the impacts of Devers’ bad choice:
1 – Bogey loses his chance at a routine ball
2 – Bogey loses his chance to improve his range
3 – The Red Sox don’t get an out
4 – Devers improves his range factor
5 – The pitcher gives up a hit which hurts his WHIP
6 – The pitcher could give up a run which hurts his ERA
7 – The pitcher has to throw more pitches
8 – The pitcher has a more stressful inning
So, because Devers has poor baseball acumen or is simply selfish his two team mates (the SS and Pitcher) have worse numbers but Devers’ numbers improve and yet the team could lose the game because of his action that only helped himself not the team.
Devers doesn’t have to be fast to get to the ball, the slow reaction time doesn’t come into play on a slow roller and your comment tries to mislead people into thinking my statement isn’t completely consistent with what happens. In other words, you did what you always do. You create hypothetical scenarios to mislead the reader into thinking something I wrote was inaccurate when it wasn’t . Yep, I really miss this type of banter..
Honestly Kevin miss you on the athletic. You stand up for what you believe and I stand up for what I believe. We aren’t agreeing on this one but at least we both are willing to say what we believe. I’m not going to agree with you and your not going to agree with me we both can show instances and stats that support our theories. The one thing we can agree on is that Devers has had to many errors and if he doesn’t change that no matter what advanced statistics say he can’t remain at third.
Please say hi to Gerard and ask him to join us on this website. Apparently saying Jen was biased toward Cora is a no no OR calling Cora scumbag which is defined as a contemptible or objectionable person is no no OR pointing out Jen made up part of her story by saying Bloom worked closely with Quatraro when neither was ever in the same part of the TB organization at the same time is a no no. Not sure which one violated the Code of Conduct but apparently one did. Nobody will respond to my inquiries so I moved on but I still read all of your comments and give you guys thumbs ups. No refund also makes me very unhappy. Calling corporate to see what’s up with that and the non responses.
Tried Over the Monster but a bunch of teenagers control the site and tell you what you can and can’t say. Not strong baseball fans either so the only guy on the site who knew baseball was afraid to write his thoughts because he didn’t want to be kicked off like so many other knowledgeable baseball people before him by the kiddie corp. It’s very bizarre. Reminded me of Animal Farm! If you didn’t follow the collective group think you were chastised and insulted over and over with Immature and unintelligent comments and told that you had to behave like the collective. They even tried to dictate the tone of your comments!! You might want to read the articles and stay away from writing anything. Matt Collins won’t even respond to inquiries about the bizarre behavior on his site.
I don’t see the Red Sox moving Devers. If they can live with 24 errors a year for 4 seasons, their commitment level is clear no matter how much it hurts the team and the pitching staff he’s staying at 3B. It’s consistent with the many other bad decisions they are making these days. Have my fingers crossed Bloom makes moves that actually impact the MLB team not just minor league players years away from contributing..
Watching Mookie star and shaking my head in amazement that the ownership didn’t think he was worth keeping, especially as a MVP home grown player who wasn’t a first round pick. That’s such a rare achievement it’s hard to believe how stupid they are to let him join the HOF as a Dodger. In many ways, since they make so much money on the team, this error dwarfs the Babe Ruth mistake. That mistake was financial this one was racial.
How much did he hate ownership to pass on staying in a town that revered him? I hope someday Mookie explains his choice with full disclosure. If it was racism, I’m guessing he won’t ever admit it because he’s too classy of a guy. And if that was the case I bet the entire fan base would stand behind any fan apologizing for ownership’s behavior. That’s what makes the situation so sad and pathetic. He truly was loved in Boston. Losing Mookie is a travesty but now we have to turn the page and recover..
Time to move on from Dustin Pedroia, just eat the money and save the roster spot. Sad his career ends this way as he was a fun player to watch, not Hall of Fame but certainly Hall of Very Good.
JBJ will probably get the QO and is likely to accept it. The other players listed did nothing to keep roster spots and if any are brought back should only be on minor league invites to training camp
There is a 0% chance JBJ is getting the Qo –
Yes I think the RS said their good byes to JBJ, sadly so.
They’ll bring JBJ back if they can get him cheap enough.
Exactly! @feverpitchguy
I am sure they have a set number of money they are willing to spend on a centerfielder and if he costs too much then they’ll let him walk. If he’s willing to accept their budgeted amount then they’ll keep him
Pedroia may not be a Hall of Famer, but there’s only a handful of players that were able to ring that type of talent out of a small frame, the man is the ultimate competitor, and it has to be killing him not to be able to play the game he loves, no, Dustin Pedroia is not a Hall of Famer, but that doesn’t detract from his career in Boston….My family grew up a couple houses down from the Eckstein family, and my sister loved David Eckstein, she claims that he was better than Pedroia, and I laugh
They were both good but Peddy was my fave
Pedie would have been enshrined in Cooperstown if not for the Manny Machado play. A couple of NY players fit that bill as well. David Wright and Don’t Mattingly.
*meant to connect the dots. Injuries shortened each player’s career. I realize he stopped playing so young but Bo Jackson could have made the HOF in two separate sports if he could have stayed healthy. Than man was perhaps the greatest athlete I ever saw.
He shouldn’t have played BB. He was good, but not great. In his regular seasons, 1986-1990, he averaged 2.3 bWAR/650. Maybe he’d have done better with a proper spring training.
In FB, he was one of the best RBs I’ve ever seen. I don’t know which site shows leaders over multiple seasons (similar to FG), but I’d bet real money he led the NFL in yards/rush over 1987-1990. Dickerson might have been the best pure running over those 4 years, and he averaged 4.3. Sanders averaged 5.2, for only two seasons. Thurman Thomas averaged 4.4 in three seasons.
Bo averaged 5.4. Marcus Allen might be my favorite Raider of all time, but Bo was a much better pure runner, and Allen is in the HOF.
Bo did amazing things on the field, be it unreal catches, bombs at the plate, speed for a huge guy or a cannon of an arm. To use saberstats when he gave up the sport so young is unfair. Anyone who saw him play understands the gifts he possessed.
Nobody in their right mind would give JBJ a QO. Hes not worth the 11m he was slated to earn last year, let alone 19m that the QO is at this year.
First off Pedroia is a fan favorite and has given so much to the franchise. For a team that is not going to contend next year I highly doubt they will cut him in his last year. Secondly, nobody would give JBJ a QO. Boston couldn’t trade him last year because of the 11 or 12 he was making.
Cutting him doesn’t mean he won’t get paid. He just gets released with full pay due to medical issues. He’s moved on from baseball ready to quality of life issues.
The sox are going to contend next year. Guys had abnormally bad seasons this year in a season that had no spring training and much uncertainty. They will also have their top two starters back.
Nobody on this planet is saying to save a roster spot for Dustin. Zero chance they do.
Maybe Pedey makes HoF if that bum Machado didn’t finish off what was left of his knee.
Wilson already has a 40 man spot
Let Bradley Jr and Pedroia go. Keep Devers happy. Take a chance on some free agents who are under valued. The Sox rebuild certainly won’t be completed this year, but they can take steps forward.
Scratching the surface with the names listed. brice can be left off and offered a chance to come back on a make good contract. Jeff Springs should be a goner, Dylan Covey can be easily replaced. Godley and Hart returned from the 45 day DL and released. Leyer DFA’d and offered a shot once again as a MiLB FA.
Plenty of mostly pitchers they signed on MiLB deals last winter who showed little to nothing and can look for more of the same and last years cast let go, most, other than Valdez, maybe Stock retained.
Non-tender, DFA, FA, cut and offer minor league deal list:
Jackie Bradley – FA
Tzu-Wei Lin – 0 options remaining
Marcus Walden – 0 options
Colton Brewer – 0 options
Jose Peraza – nt
Dylan Covey – 0 options
Zack Godley – 0 options
Mike Kickham 0 options
(All 8 will be gone, but may resign as minor league deal although I hope they do not)
Robert Stock – have options, but may be cut
Andrew Triggs
Robinson Leyer
Matt Hall
Jeffrey Springs
(Have options, but really were not good enough to keep)
Kyle Hart – option to AAA
Yoan Aybar – to A or AA
Chris Mazza – to AAA
Domingo Tapia resigned last year as minor league FA played in Pawtucket 2019 and 2020…would bet he does again
There will be more than enough room to add:
Mata, Seabold, Groome, Wong, Potts, Rosario
and acquitions
Mazza and Tapia are easy enough to pass though if you want to keep them and save a roster spot.
Agreed on Mazza and Tapia passing through waivers…and any of 17 listed should pass through waivers, and if not the Red Sox will have plenty to choose from that are non-tendered by other teams…but IMO only Hart, Mazza, Aybar, and Tapia showed enough to keep (Hart mainly as AAA starter to fill out Pawtucket
I mean Worcester
Excellent summary. I agree with every choice you made.
4w – nice post. I agree with all the players you choose to left go of.
They can sign Rusney Castillo…
They have him already
No they don’t he’s done. Contract over.
That went well didn’t it?
The problem wasn’t that castillo didn’t deserve a major league spot. The problem was that he didn’t prove enough to warrant his salary going against the luxury tax
…..I am sure (bobgibsonfan) is kidding…..
Jaa1968@ wasn’t…
Castillo, are you sure we don’t still have him for one year of control since his contract only allowed him to be in the majors 2 seasons. Shouldn’t he have one year left of control and 3 years of arbitration?
Does anyone know for sure how that works?
Rusney’s guaranteed contract is over. It does not matter whether team control/options still exist. 7 yr / $72.5 million is done.
All teams unfortunately sign players that do not work out. The longer the contract, the greater the risk….
I know the contract is concluded and it was a huge bust but my question is according to Spotrac Rusney is considered a pre-arb 3 so he has 4 years of control left 1 as pre-arb 3 and 3 years of arbitration. Can that be right since he only played 2 years in the majors? If so, we could pay him a controllable wage of $0.6M ish in 2021 then in 2022 he’d be an arbitration case. His cost per year goes down by over $14M.
We didn’t promote him to the majors for years so his money didn’t count against the luxury tax cap. Does that mean we have him 4 more years under control?
That’s my question. I don’t even care if he’s worth it, is he still under our control and if so he becomes a trade-able resource, granted not a big chip but still a chip with minimum value.
To my knowledge, no more control but whomever signs him has the arb years. He will find a MLB job in a split or 4th outfielder job. Sox could even use him to fill Pillar’s past role assuming they resign JBJ and remain lefty heavy in the OF.
Thanks. Spotrac shows a year of control in 2020 but since they don’t have him listed in 2021 I assumed he’s a free agent to be signed by anyone.
Rusney had the option of becoming a free agent to find an mlb contract or keep the huge payday from the Red Sox when he was removed from the 40-man roster. He chose the money as most people would have. He had no guarantee of making a mlb team as he simply was not good enough.
I think it’s more a case like 2003, when Theo said “I’m not sure we HAVE 40 players”……
40-man issues are mainly in the imagination of the fans. Every team has players that can be waived without being claimed, and , if they are, so what? Sure, there are Max Muncy-s out there; but for every Max, there’s literally hundreds of others. And. like everything else in the economically tiered MLB, if the Sox goof, they’ll just have to spend a few more bucks to replace the player.
So sleep tight, Sox fans….they’ll get through the 40-man battle. They have much more serious battles than that one.
Bob – there are many good players in the system that have not reached the point where they are required to be added to the 40-man to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. It is definitely not “just in the mind of the fans”!
Casas, Downs, Duran, Song, Jimenez, Ward, Yorke, Lugo, Jordan, Ramirez, Murphy, Wallace…12 of the Red Sox top 20 prospects do not yet need to be added to the 40- man to protect them yet, but there is plenty of quality players and some will debut in 2021 and some in 2022 with the Red Sox.
They finished last in a slightly less than scintillating division; the farm system is rated 22nd in MLB. Sure, there’s talent in both areas; who wouldn’t want Raffy or X or Verdugo, and some of the prospects.
They finished last. With more revenues than most teams, and an ownership that has little hesitancy in spending it.
Don’t stay up nights worrying about protecting Kevin Pawlecki. Or everybody that was masquerading as an MLB pitcher. Or the right side of the IF.
They finished last. They stink. And there’s absolutely NO excuse for it.
Bob you might enjoy Soxprospect.com
I have no doubt the farm is under-rated. Traditionally, just about everyone has under- sold Red Sox prospects (the Giants being the other chronically undersold organization). There’s likely better “stuff” there than is generally assumed.
So what? Prospects are suspects. They finished last. They stink. The standard for high revenue/profit teams is different than for their low market brethren. Given enough time, a fourth grader can take a team with the Sox’ assets and produce a competitive team.
2020 should have never been allowed to happen. And there are ZERO reasons for them not to be back in the hunt next year.
The Red Sox finished last in Pandemic shortened season when they played a misbalanced schedule and were killed by the Yankees and the Tampa. The Red Sox played much better at the end of the season and likely would of finished much closer to a .500 record then one of the worse team records in baseball.
The Red Sox will be much better next year assuming a full 162 game season. This 60 game season was the exception but it does allow Boston to get the 4th pick in the draft which no way that would happen in a full 162 game season.
Bruin – Yes, and not just the 4th pick in the first round, but the 4th pick in every round (2012 to 2019 there have been 40 rounds – not sure how many for 2021).
Sounds like 20-25 very good for Boston.
Let’s not forget that we’ve been hearing about a bad farm system and Houck showed that we have many players in our improperly labeled farm system who simply have not been recognized for their talent, that’s a ratings issue not a farm system issue.
We graduate guys all the time and that’s exactly why a farm system exists. Dalbec, has started well. He’s following a long line of promotions who are impacting our success including Chavis, Devers, Vazquez, Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts and JBJ. We had 9 hitters in 2020 and all but Verdugo (traded for Mookie a home grown star) and Arroyo were home grown players. Not many teams can match that success rate. Our currently under-valued farm system will continue to provide players and Bloom’s additions should enhance it but it’s not a case of him turning it around, it’s a case of him adding to one of the best farm systems of the 2010s.
Actually Bob, there IS an excuse for finishing last. The lineup was fine, lots of talented hitters on the team. The problem – which should be obvious to anyone who watched any of their games – was their pitching absolutely stunk. Two of the best starting pitchers in the league missed the entire season. Their best RHP missed a considerable amount of time. It was an endless string of auditions for pitchers whom nobody ever heard of before. So please don’t lump the hitters in with the pitchers. I think nearly every team would love to have a lineup that featured Xander, JD, Devers, Verdugo, Vazquez, Moreland and Pillar.
No excuse in the sense that ownership/FO allowed it to happen. All the pitching problems could have been anticipated and reacted to; there was little response besides grabbing warm bodies off the waiver wire.
Tom Brady left town; Bill Belicheck seems to be soon to follow. 2020 was a HUGE opportunity to increase the value of the brand. And man, did they ever blow it. The money they saved by getting under the tax is all washed away by the beating the brand took.
In 2003, John Henry and folks shook up the industry with his “BE BOLD” mantra, transferring a moribund franchise into a license to print money. He needs to repeat that formula. And he needs to repeat it today. Or you’re going to see a lot of Public Service Announcements on NESN, where commercials should be.
The fact that so many Red Sox players graduated the farm system to play for the mlb team in itself depleted the minor leagues …… but Bloom has added 8 top 20 prospects in the short time he has been with the Red Sox rather than depleting the farm system. There will be plenty of debuts in 2021 assuming we have a normal 162 game season: Casas, Downs, Mata, Duran, Rosario, Seabold, Potts, Wong, Wallace, Chatham may all make appearance to go along with Houck, Dalbec, Grullon who debuted this season.
Bob – go take a Xanax! You need it!
Top prospect rating is such an unsophisticated process that you should avoid thinking about rankings. Whatever Bloom adds, we simply need to monitor their progress.
For example, I look at Down’s numbers and I can’t explain why he’s ahead of Potts. It could be the organization he came from rather than talent. If you check their minor league numbers, draw your own conclusions because the same guys who placed Downs at #44 never rated Mookie in the top 100 until he was on the major league team but they had guys like Henry Owens and Blake Swihart ranked very high. Their ability to predict the future through their rankings is quite bad until the player is an obvious star. Houck never got recognition like he deserved. Now that he’s obviously got talent he’ll jump and make some lists but he should have been there all along.
The measure of success is when a player comes to the majors and starts. Then the farm system has provided value which is it’s charter. Right now, Houck and Dalbec look to be excellent examples of a healthy farm system. Grullon is a back-up who might some day replace Vazquez and really isn’t a farm system add.. He’s not in the same category as Houck and Dalbec. They are impact players not depth.
We’ve had a great 7 year run bringing up starters not depth. If that continues we might see Duran in center field, Casas at 1B or 3B, and Mata and Seabold in the rotation with Wallace a set-up man. Downs needs to learn how to hit before he’ll become a starter, Potts may end up fighting it out for a corner infield starting spot but he’ll need to hit more consistently. Wong will be behind Gruillon so his value is depth just like Chatham. Rosario is a guy who could be a starter or depth it’s too soon to have a good idea which will happen. Great upside but he must fulfill it.
Also, Casas, Mata, Duran, Chatham, Houck and Dalbec existed in Boston before Bloom and are the most likely to add to our MLB starting roster. Of the players procured by Bloom I think the guys with the best chance of contributing to the MLB team will be Seabold, Wallace, Grullon and possibly Potts or Downs if they fulfill their potential. That’s not much so far but this off-season will be Bloom’s chance to show his worth. So far, he’s only upgraded our depth. He’s improved the players who will be MLB back-ups. That’s a key part to improving a franchise but not as key as providing new blood for the MLB team and having them be part of the starting line-up. Lets hope this off-season brings those types of upgrades.
Bob did you not understand starting last winter that the plan this year was to suck? If they had continued spending and been a third time tax offender the dollars would have been insane !! They needed to retool because they won the World Series a couple years ago and then they ran back the same Squad as any one would to try to repeat and that failed. The next season, 2020, is one they chose to reset the tax penalty. Get below the tax and suck for the year. Sox accomplished that goal and even picked up 10 new guys for their top 30 prospects list.
Every Red Sox fan on the face of the planet knew this was going on the last year. Since last winter. How did you not see this, how do you not understand? It was the plan the whole time. Now it’s okay to spend and it won’t be taxed times 3. It’ll be taxed times 1. Being a repeat offender is a major major penalty.
Gary, the tax situation was NOT dire. Ownership chose to do many bizarre things this past year. They fired a GM that won them a ring, they hired a small market GM to run a big market club with no experience handling a payroll over $100M, they practically gave away a future Red Sox legend and then paid double to remove a former Cy Young winner because his contract was large.
The tax could have waited a year, which means Mookie didn’t need to go unless he had committed to leaving which we’ll never know for sure and we could have paid $10M (yes $1M less than what we paid JBJ) in taxes to keep the core team together. The pitching still would have sucked and maybe Mookie wouldn’t have been interested in a bigger offer in 2021 but again we’ll never know. We might have made the playoffs so no fourth pick in the 2021 draft but it’s a deep draft so we could have done fine.
The ownership chose a bad path for the fans. There is no way to know if we are better off or worse off but we know this, we don’t have one of the top players in baseball because either ownership didn’t want him or they offended him or his family severely enough for him to want out of a town that loved him. Either way, there has been a ton of bad decisions beginning with firing Dombrowski.
We are where we are and we can’t change the past all we can do is make the most out of a bad situation brought upon us by Red Sox ownership. If you truly believe they are going to exceed the luxury tax going forward you don’t understand why they hired Bloom. The luxury tax is only significant if you want to exceed it. Hiring Bloom shouts to the fans that the luxury tax won’t be exceeded going forward. That is ok if Bloom can put together a competitive team without exceeding it and since DD did it I expect Bloom coming from a more frugal team should be able to do it too. The question is how soon?
Did you know that in 2018 our active roster spending was below the luxury tax and the overage came from previous contracts like Price’s only back then it was Panda and Hanley? The overage was on ownership not Dombrowski. Bloom needs to figure out how to get us back quickly and keep us under the luxury tax. That’s a huge challenge. This off season should show us whether he’s capable of doing his job or whether we need a big market GM who also believes in player development and analytics..
KD@, They DID try to run it back the next season after winning the World Series and they flopped !!
The Red Sox did not feel comfortable giving the biggest contract in the history of the world to a 5-11 28 year old who weighs 185 lb. Myself and others could see Andrew McCutchen type slow drop off as he enters 33, 34, 35 years old. Super star center fielder MVP candidate hi average high home runs to slowly slipping in productivity and making 40 million dollars a year. Mookie is an all-time great Red Sox and we’re sorry to see him go but that contract he wanted and eventually got was not something the Red Sox were willing to do. I can see why.
Chaim bloom was an incredible hire and we’re lucky to have him. Just because he has no experience with a high payroll doesn’t mean his baseball knowledge goes away. Look what he’s done so far. Inserted 10 new guys in our top 30 Prospect list, unloaded injured David Price$$ and received a couple good players in return for contract year Mookie. Maybe it’s just my opinion but I think he’s been outstanding so far. Great hire.
There’s absolutely no way the Red Sox would wait one more year and run it back with that Squad. Pitching was in terrible shape it would have been a wasted season even without the moves they made. Sale went down ERod went down so you’re going to keep David Price & sign mookie to a 10-year contract and be in the same shape with zero Farm and the position players that exist now which are pretty good but there’s still a few holes if you want to be Championship material. And that bullpen? You can’t be serious about running it back again in 2020. That would have been a wasted year and 40 million a year down the drain on Mookie. Plus NO RESET of the tax the Red Sox would have been screwed royally. I don’t think you’re right on that assessment.
I think most fans realize the Red Sox are in WAY better shape this November then they were last November. Seriously I’m excited about the future. Mookie was a big loss but there’s no way you give an Andrew McCutchen projectile that kind of a contract. No way. The Dodgers are desperate win now so they did it.
The Red Sox needed to stay under the luxury-tax for one season to reset. They don’t have to stay under the luxury-tax anymore they’re free to be the Red Sox again.
I really disagree with everything in your post and I don’t think you have the proper vision regarding moves made and the future of the Sox. And that’s okay, different opinions are what make this site interesting and Sports in general a lot of fun. I appreciate your post and reply to my comment but still I think you are way off base, and think you’re out in left field to be honest.
KD@, you’re just wrong about the Bloom hire. This is the same owner who has spent his way to four championships. Why is that suddenly going to change because he brought a baseball man from Tampa Bay? A sudden change in course is not logical. Did John Henry suddenly get married and his wife is now calling the shots and aiming towards frugality? I think not.
The tax reset year and sucking in 2020 was a matter of paying ONE TIMES the tax or THREE TIMES the tax. Money doesn’t grow on trees even for billionaires. Bloom is a good baseball man look what he’s done so far. Yes I’m grateful for Dave Dombrowski he did a wonderful job bringing a championship to Boston. But that being accomplished, it was time to right the ship and repair the battle damages. We are clearly on the road towards that.
No one doubts that given enough time, Bloom can bring the Sox back. As I said, given enough time, everybody on this board (most, anyway) could bring the Sox back. It just isn’t, given the money aspect, a difficult thing to do.
It’s a question of time. Henry wants to go public with the team; few will invest in a team/network when the team has smaller ratings than the latest My Pillow infomercial.
The Sox may very well be in a better place this November than they were last. But that’s not enough. The Rays aren’t going away; ya, there was a certain amount of luck in their success, but that’s the case in any given year with any given team. The Yanks are far from impregnable; the Jays may be coming, but they’re not there yet; the O’s are a few years away.
Serious action is required, as in signing Springer/Bauer type of action (just as an example). And Gary is 100% correct; that Luxury Tax thing is just a canard; chump change to a team like the Sox.
I’m not sure Bloom is up to it. But I AM sure that one more year like this one, and he’s gone. Playing for the future is something you do in Pittsburgh (it’s all a dodge anyway), not in Boston.
For example, I look at Down’s numbers and I can’t explain why he’s ahead of Potts.
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It was likely the K/W. In A+, downs was at 97/54 while Potts was at 112/37. In AA, it was 10/6 v 128/32. Potts is young enough, but the 4/1 K/W is worrisome. That seldom plays well in the pros.
I’m not sure Bloom is up to it. But I AM sure that one more year like this one, and he’s gone.
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It’s too early to tell on the draft, but Bloom had a great year on the pro level. The Betts trade, on Verdugo alone, is a winner. Then he moves some dead wood for some decent players. Pivetta, based on his only two starts, is probably more valuable than everything he gave up.
On top of that, he got four legit prospects for three guys he signed for near minimum wages. For a guy that had to trade his best player, get under the cap with that trade plus Price, and then had only $8M to spend, he a great job.
Say what you will, but IMO BLOOM HAD A MANDATE TO GET BELOW THE CBT!!
Betts made absolutely no signs of resigning, and it looked like he ABSOLUTELY wanted out of Boston. Whether it is the crappy whether in Boston or the racial crap yelled at opposition RFers. He wanted out to go somewhere like LA with great whether and lots of glitz. LA is more of a Mookie kind of town and in his own words he “loves it there”. He was never going to stay. I do not understand why some fans do not get it.
In hindsight Bloom should have made the Betts trade with LA sooner, so there would have been more quality arms left. I do not think it mattered to management how the Red Sox did in 2020, and I think a lot of fans did not care either as there were none in the stands.
IMO the Red Sox spend and get some pitching this offseason and compete in 2021.
EXACTLY !!! Spot on !!!
Betts is being laughed at by baseball people everywhere and for good reason. What kind of idiot gives up Betts is the question and the answer is our ownership. If they win this year, thank Betts. As a fan, I would prefer to win than to have a slightly better farm system.
You have no idea whether we’ll ever exceed the luxury tax under Bloom’s command so it’s great that you think it will happen but there is nothing in his history that would suggest we will. That leads to my point about if you aren’t going over, then there was no rush to get under. Less money would have been spent staying over another year than we wasted on a one dimensional center fielder.
Your conclusion about why Mookie left is also a guess not a fact so it still comes back to what did they do to make a player so angry he wanted out of Boston. You want to blame the fans so I’m guessing that helps you justify it but fans are cruel in every city not just Boston. That’s a cop out. It wasn’t the fans, it had to be either they said or did something that triggered it or they simply didn’t want to spend the money. If it’s the money, shame on them. You don’t like a long contract because you are conservative with money but to people who have more money than they know what to do with, the money should never be the answer.. Also, the revenues in Boston are better than most places and it’s not like they wouldn’t turn a profit if they paid Mookie. There was no excuse.
I am fine with you having contrary opinions, but the mandate is a fabrication because nobody knows that they simply assume it to rationalize such a bad move. That’s not a fact even if you put it in capital letters.
The Mookie trade timing was terrible for two reasons: First, LAD did not prove they wanted that badly otherwise we get pitching in the deal. If Bloom didn’t ask for pitching then he’s nowhere near the great GM you think he is. If he asked and they said no, then he should have found a suitor who was willing to give us pitching. Next, he clumped Price in the deal but rather than throwing in prospects so our available cash would be good for the next 3 years he double paid to remove Price. This move is exactly like Panda and Hanley, the two reasons we were over the luxury tax in the first place. Financial stupidity on the part of the GM, finance group or ownership is inexcusable but common place..
Joe, we can only hope if he fails in the next 9 months he’ll be gone by the end of next year. Bloom sat on his hands for way too long and made a mixed results set of moves. A few of the acquisitions do have a chance to add value (starting players) on the Red Sox roster but most are likely to be back-ups best case. Seabold, Pivetta and even his one good early move of Perez all give us hope for things to come but for every good move he made he made at least two bad choices and that needs to be a concern to all fans.
Also, I stand by my point that the ranking of players in the minors is a joke. I could not find over the last 10 years a worse player than Downs ranked #44 or higher. He really hasn’t earned his ranking but lets hope at some point he does. I picked Potts as a comparison because he’s younger and is a year ahead of him in the farm system. Neither is hitting for average and Potts does strike out like Dalbec but not quite as much. Downs went in the draft earlier than his skills should have placed him because of the publicity around his name and the interviews with his mother that made the national media. He ended up in LAD where they tend to have their prospects rated higher now that Friedman is there but they aren’t always justified. Downs has had 12 games that are worthy of his #44 ranking, the rest of his years in the minors is very average. His value is greatest now which is why Friedman dumped him on an unsuspecting Bloom. In one year, if Downs is a top star I’ll admit I’m wrong, but looking at his numbers I see a guy who should struggle to hit for average in AA, AAA and the majors if he ever makes it there. His OBP could save him but the better the pitchers the less likely he’ll walk as much.
Bloom got Pivetta because Philly gave up on him. The deal was an excellent one for Bloom because he bought above average potential for nothing. That was a great trade. The LAD will always be a bust in my mind because we lost Mookie and because we needed pitching and got a decent right field replacement and two journeymen back-ups. The Colorado deal was excellent. The San Diego deal was excellent.
So, I’m not as confident in Bloom as you are but you are right, some of his moves have turned out really well. My point is that he might be batting .333 right now and to get back to being competitive we need something over .500.
Gary, the running them back and failing had more to do with the manager than the players and hopefully we’ll never see that cheater again. Yes, players have up years and down years but we were 10 games out in April thanks to Cora. Talent doesn’t vanish suddenly in a year. For many players after having a career year it is often the case that they are followed by a down year. We should have recognized that and stuck with the core group because of their talent level. Changing out parts of the team would have been an easier transition than removing the best player. That’s pure stupidity.
So you obviously weren’t a Mookie fan because the things you said were seriously wrong. Mookie’s height or weight doesn’t make for his home run hitting. Ernie Banks wasn’t a big guy but hit over 500 home runs. So we can dismiss the size argument. In this day and age, his size isn’t nearly as critical as his athleticism.
Next, Mookie’s deal isn’t a bad one for LAD. If you are conservative and have issues with the money players make, get over yourself they are in an industry where the owners still make money paying those big salaries so it should have been about winning championships not money. LAD figured that out and made him a deal that will give them a chance at championships for over a decade. We could have been in that same position.
When the new CBA comes in and the spending levels increase and the media deals increase the average player will make lots more money than today. Mookie’s $30.4M will be low for players at his level and for many years he will out perform his contract. If he does for 8 of 12 years is that a bad contract in your mind? It’s not in mine. The big risk should be a major injury like what happened to Pedroia. That’s the only reason an elite player is a risk when they sign a big contract. The Red Sox made a huge mistake that will be regretted each time LAD wins a ring in the next 12 years because that could have been a Red Sox ring.
The ONLY reason the Red Sox are in better shape than a year ago is because Sale is closer to being healthy. We took a huge step down in Right Field, we are the same in CF for now and LF and 3B, and SS and we have yet another average 2B and we have Dalbec not Moreland and our catcher is the same. Our pitching staff will have a healthy Sale by June, Eovaldi who proved his 2018 performance was legit so that should make us more optimistic but we aren’t better off because we had him a year ago and we have him now, E-Rod is far worse off than a year ago but we did add Perez which is good. Additionally, it’s a year later and some of our terrible farm system guys (sarcasm since our farm system has been great for a decade) are that much closer to the pros (Houck and Dalbec) but that also happens without dumping Mookie. Our closer is gone and we don’t have a replacement.
Does that really sound like a big improvement to you? I think we are worse off than a year ago except we have a few new players with potential. It needs to be realized before we are equal to a year ago or better off. We have a high draft choice which is better but to get it we suffered through a miserable short season.
Nothing supports your proclamation that “WE ARE MUCH BETTER OFF”, if anything we should be screaming
“WE NEED BLOOM TO REPLACE OUR LOST RESOURCES!”
We had a team that would have been competitive in 2021 with Sale back. Bloom needs to make us competitive again with off season moves.
Remember, if we didn’t do the deal then our line-up going in to 2021 would have been Mookie, Devers, JD, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Dalbec, Chavis, Benny and JBJ. I don’t think anyone in their right mind would say that’s much worse than what we have right now so have we really improved? My opinion is no we are worse off.
Our pitching staff in 2021 would have been Sale, E-Rod, Eovaldi, Price and Houck. Is that really much worse than what we have right now? We would have had a Closer and we don’t right now. So, I’m not buying into how much better off we are right now.
Bloom needs to earn his job by actually improving our starting line-up not our reserves..
Joe – Agreed that Potts is better than Downs as is Casas and Duran IMO. The exact order of the prospects is not important. If the prospects preforms and there is a spot available they get called up.
The fact still remains that Mookie did not want to resign with Boston! He ask for 12 years $420,000,000 and would not negotiate. The Red Sox traded him, because they knew LA would be able to outbid them (maybe the Red Sox could have had the money for Betts had they not resigned Sale….DD paid the price for that one). Regardless, I believe Mookie did not want to stay, so the money was just an excuse to not negotiate and leave!
4WSsince04 – First, where is the documentation of your first statement about the money. I followed this closely and never heard those numbers stated or written ANYWHERE. They were hypothesized but never documented as an offer Just need a source of that data.
Also, if that is true then the issue with ownership must have been huge.
LA outbidding the Red Sox in free agency isn’t relevant because a good relationship with your franchise player should have led to a signing even at $420M/12 YR. $35M was $8M more than his 2020 number with the Red Sox. We pay for the first year by non-tendering JBJ in 2020.
You are working on a premise that one of the most financially viable franchises couldn’t afford $35M a year. That’s insane. They chose not to pay big bucks, they aren’t hurting for money, even with the COVID. They can be summarized as making “less than before” not “going broke”.
Again, if Mookie didn’t want to stay in Boston then there had to be a very strong reason for not wanting to stay. Signing quickly in LA also seems to support the idea that it wasn’t the money that it was the ownership. I’m doubting it was the weather.
If you are right, he must have been very unhappy with ownership because nothing has leaked out about any other issues with team mates, the front office or manager. If Cora was still here, I could understand him wanting out but he was gone by then. Someday I hope someone breaks down and tells the public if it was the ownership offending Mookie or something else that made him leave. There is no way the money could be the answer for a franchise making as much as the Red Sox do. And there is no way that our fans say worse things than most fans around the league. It’s nasty everywhere and I don’t believe he’s a rabbit ears kind of guy.
Watch the World Series and listen to the announcers, analysts and former players talk about what idiots the Red Sox ownership is without using those words. Wait til Price comes back in 2021 and has a good or even great year and how much more egg will be on ownership’s face. This isn’t unexpected. Everyone knew it was an idiot move from the start and some fans like you tried to rationalize it. It’s an idiot move in 2020 and 2120, just like the Babe Ruth move. Time won’t change the verdict on either idiot move by the Red Sox ownership.
I wonder since we didn’t get pitching but gave them the #2 player in baseball if Friedman will be sending Bloom a yacht for Christmas if the Dodgers win. He should, he earned it taking so little for Mookie. Urias, May even Graterol would have been better than Downs and Wong. Lets hope Bloom can dupe some other teams like Friedman duped him.
If Bloom didn’t ask for pitching then he’s nowhere near the great GM you think he is.
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1-We needed an outfielder, and a 2B. It’s not like we got another SS, 3B, or 1B, where we have some depth.
2-What pitching were we going to get? It is not enough to think about what you want, You also need to think about what you can get. Verdugo was going to be accessible because they were adding Betts. Downs was available because he was not moving ahead of Lux. Wong was available because of Smith and Ruiz.
That’s the reason why we got such a good deal; we took the players that fit us better than they fit LA.
IMO, you aren’t making much sense.
There are no mixed results here. We got legit prospects for guys that we mostly just pick up again next year for nothing.
You want to say that Downs is the worst #44 in ten years, but you supply no support for that statement. He had an .862 in A+ at age 20, and a 1.116 in AA. Potts is ahead of him, but didn’t have nearly as good a season. Further, you make the ranking sound like some sort of conspiracy. He’s a fine prospect, and there is nothing in his record to dislike.
And you absolutely cannot say the rest of his minor league, besides the 12 games, is very average. In Cucamonga, He was the 3rd youngest of the regulars, and he had the best stats.
No offense Joe but you are rationalizing a terrible deal. First, the Dodgers have more pitching depth than most. Urias would have been better than Verdugo. May would have been better than Verdugo I can’t believe you would argue that we don’t need pitching more than a RF, back-up 2B or a back-up catcher..
Read up on LAD. They had tons of pitching they could have parted with but gave us over-valued players just like any good GM would. DD did the same with Anderson Espinoza. It makes perfect sense from their side and little sense from ours.
Joe, I’m not trying to pick a fight with you over Downs, I’m just saying Downs has been a huge disappointment for being drafted so high and then not performing other than in 12 games in AA. In 2017 Downs was the 32 pick in the draft as a high school shortstop and because his birthday is after June 30th by 27 days he is only considered an 18 year old that year despite playing the majority of the season at age 19. He played 50 games at Rookie Ball that year and hit .267. That alone is not impressive. What was impressive that year was his OBP because he had .103 of it from walks. He had a 32/28 BB/K ratio and slugged .424 so his IP (isolated power) was .157 which means his power wasn’t much that year. So, did he put up #32 in the draft type numbers? No. His season was very average.
At age 19, he played at Full A and hit .257 which isn’t even average, it’s below average but he walked a lot so his OBP was .351 and his slugging was .402 so the slugging was down .022 from Rookie Ball with the batting average dropping 10 points and the isolated power dropping 12 points. Again, for the 32nd pick this is totally underwhelming. In year 2, however, he did steal 37 bases which was close to 30 more than ROK ball but he also got thrown out over 20% of the time. While displaying more speed and less power and less average this first rounder still isn’t impressive.
You disagree right? So lets do a few comparisons, Bogaerts at 19 played at HI-A and hit .302/.378/.505 avg/obp/slg. That’s what a future star does. Devers at 19 was starting his second season in the majors. Again, that’s far more accomplished than what Downs has achieved as a 1st rounder. I’m not saying he’s bad I’m saying his rating by MLB #40 and even Baseball America’s #82 is higher than he deserves.
His 20 year old season was in 2019 and he was at Hi-A (Rancho Cucamonga) as you mentioned to start the year. He hit .269/.354/.507 which was not quite as good as Xander did at age 19. Yes, despite being the 3rd youngest he was still a full year older than Xander when he was outperformed by him. Remember, this guy was the 32nd pick and by age 20 he’s already a year behind Xander and not performing as well. In the meantime, Devers was hitting .311 at the same age for the Red Sox not the minor league affiliate!! See why he’s disappointing and over-rated?
You don’t have to be a full time scout to see what a ridiculous jump that was to 44th in 2020 based on 12 games. I believe reality will hit Downs as soon as he faces AA SPs that are above average not below average. Just like at the other levels he’ll put up pedestrian numbers. His ranking will drop and the value of our farm system will fall. Or maybe it won’t because Houck’s brings it up more than Downs will knock it down. Time will tell.
As far as Potts and Downs go they have alternated years of having better seasons. 2018 goes to Potts and 2019 goes to Downs. 2020 is a bust so 2021 will show us who is on the higher upward trend since both will play on the same team and the age difference is only 3 months.
Kd17 – I agree with you on most points, but the Red Sox could not make Mookie stay in Boston. He made it painfully obvious he wanted to leave!! He ask for $420,000,000 for 12 years!!! He might as well of ask for $800,000,000 for 20 years. If I wanted to leave somewhere I would ask for an amount way above what would be reasonable to pay.
4WSsince04 = Why he wanted to leave is what concerns me. A home grown super star player who got alienated by ownership is a very disturbing event. Also, $420M in 12 years is $35M a year.
Did you know that the net present value of Mookie’s LAD contract is actually $28.46M more than if we had paid him $35M a year for 12 years? LAD recognized his talent and paid the appropriate price for his contribution. No COVID discount occurred. The Red Sox had the money to pay $35M a year and based on the new CBA and rising revenues when you win, there was absolutely no financial justification for not signing him. It appears to have been a very personal thing that happened between ownership and Betts but we’ll never know for sure. So we get laughed at for another 100 years for our stupidity, it’s not like that hasn’t happened before!!
Kd17 – I am a financial advisor, so yes, yes, yes, yes
He was gone, gone, gone……..good move getting Verdugo, Wong, and Downs
I love the Red Sox, but if I were a player I would prefer better weather and less traffic….I like new construction rather 200 year old building. I am not slamming Boston. I like mountains and would prefer Colorado even though they are not that competitive. Mookie just did not want to be there…..good for Mookie he got his wish.
Contracts are two way. No matter how much is offered the player still needs to want to be there. I read many, many different publications about the Red Sox and other teams, and read that players accept smaller offers to play for one team over another (many times it is because one place is closer to home than another). I do not like the east coast (nothing bad about – the humidity causes health issues), if I were offered $10,000,000 to live there I would not take it. We only live once, so do what makes you happy if you have a choice. Money is not the end all…..
Mookie did not bad mouth Boston. They paid him a lot of money and gave him his start, but although I wish he stayed in Boston he did not want to. I hope I am as lucky as Mookie, to live where I want after my kids are grown….
It is not always about money !!!!!
Thanks for that input it really helps me understand your position. Can I ask? Why frequent the Red Sox discussion area? Why not a team in an area you like? Seems like you should be on the Colorado site or one of the west coast sites. Why comment here?
4w – on the nose! Mookie was not going to sign. Three quality players is better than a 4th round pick!!!!!!
Verdugo looked great this year and the Red Sox have him what like 4 or 5 more years.
KD – in SD there are more Red Sox fans in the stands at Padre games than Padre fans. As a 49 years Red Sox fan I was not going to start following the Padres just because I temporarily live in SD! I would guess maybe 4w feels the same.
Traderumors – I understand your point about locations because I’ve been a diehard Red Sox fan for 60 years and I’ve lived in Chicago, New Jersey and Texas. My father grew up in Boston so I learned from a young age to love the Red Sox.
I simply asked my question because of the one comment “I hope I am as lucky as Mookie, to live where I want after my kids are grown….’. That suggests to me that LA is where Mookie wants to live not where he got the best offer to play baseball. Mookie didn’t choose the Dodgers because of the location. He chose to commit long term there because they offered him a fair, market value contract with the 12 year length he was seeking. We have no idea whether LA is a better city for Mookie and his family. It just came across as an odd thing to say if you are a Red Sox fan. You love the Red Sox but hate Boston? That’s why I posed the question.
LAD wasn’t giving up May or Urias. Gonsolin was likely available, that’s about it.
In January they didn’t have to give any of them. In July, the Braves and Padres had comparable farm pitching so that’s when May or Urias could have been necessary for them to get Mookie.
Just think about how much Mookie meant to their early winning. If he’s not there and SD and LA are in a tight race, no way we only get Verdugo and two scrubs. We get whatever we want or we get it from the other two teams. Leverage, that’s what trading is all about and LAD had leverage on us and that’s not the time to deal.
The Red Spx have only 46 days to decide whether to tender lefthander Eduardo Rodriguez a contract on December 2. The decision should depend on medical updates between now and then.
Rodriguez is projected to earn $8.3 million as a 28-year-old in his final year of team control.
Has Rodriguez appeared in a recorded interview since being shut down in July? The media reports in the past month quote second-hand sources who apparently have spoken with Rodriguez. The most positive prognosis has come from the lefthander’s agent, who might not be the most objective source.
The next six-plus weeks could be interesting.
i dont think teams usually should make moves for niceness reasons, but non-tendering him would be an all-time bad look.
Good point, The Red Sox could make Eduardo Rodriguez a good-faith tender in appreciation of the lefthander’s past contributions.
Great point about E-Rod. The recovery time to start working out is 6 months from his heart issue, best case. That puts him in January before he’s starts conditioning not throwing. He’s not likely to make Spring Training on time and all of this is contingent on no setbacks.
He makes $8.3M and there is a good chance we won’t get him for the first three months of the season. Then, if he does come back by June or July will he be 2019 E-Rod or the previous E-Rod who wasn’t worth $8.3M? How many pitchers could Bloom get for $8.3M?
December will be key for Bloom. He needs to have a comfort level that E-Rod will contribute in 2021 for more than a few months and at the 2019 level otherwise non tender him and tell him he’s covered by insurance so take your time get healthy and talk to us late in 2021 season when you can show us what you’ve got for 2022 and beyond. He’ll be 29 in 2022 and 3 years removed from his only above average season. Non-tender might make both financial sense for the Red Sox and give E-Rod time to fully recover from a very serious injury.
Uh oh…article was fine until…quoted second-hand sources raised their ugly heads.. Circling the drain.
The 40-roster is not remotely a problem. Tapia, Stock, Leyer, Kickham, Hall, Triggs, and Puella scarcely even qualify as Red Sox players. They were wanderers we picked up to take a look at. I’m more than happy to see them replaced with guys that might actually have major league talent.
While occasionally someone will slip thru, it is not even like we lost one of our prospects. All these guys were someone else’s prospects.
JoeBrady – i agree most were cheap roster filler to keep the Red Sox under the CBT in a year that they could not compete! With Sale and Rodriguez hurt/out and Price traded there was NEVER a chance to even make a wild card spot. For 86 years the Red Sox signed players to “compete”, but never good enough to win. I do not want to return to those times. I agree with what Bloom did…..stay under CBT and spend in 2021 if the right players are available to reload (there was 80 percent roster turnover between 04 and 07, 07 and 13, 13 and 18). Last is fine in 2020 if it leads to a 5th WS in short order which i think it will!
Red Sox have a top 5 pick next year. That is some indication right there that Red Sox weren’t planning anything this year and probably next year. They should let some of their contracts expire and sit back while Rays and Yankees battle out with Toronto hanging in there as well. If I was the GM and owner of the Red Sox, I’d put the most competitive team on the field and not break the bank to do so. Spend a few years under the threshold and retool the system. Come back in a few years with vengeance.
I agree. If I were Henry, I’d make that the policy and announce it. Just say, we will spend up to the cap every year, but not over it. Unless we are in a unique position to win the WS.
Nice job Joe and Shannon. It’s an excellent approach to winning while making a ton of money in a big market town like Boston.
The other key that needs to happen is the finance people need to be fired and a new more modern thinking group needs to come on board to explain why you NEVER buy down a contract. The luxury tax problem stems from buy downs. Any money paid to keep a guy like Sale should not have put us over but ownership screwed up on Panda and Hanley. It also hurt that Pedroia got severely injured and missed multiple years as one of the top paid players. All these things removed and the Sale deal isn’t even talked about. It should still go away when he dominates in 2022 and hopefully late 2021 but until then many have been skeptical about a no brainer contract thanks to Panda, Hanley and Pedroia.
Stay below the luxury tax but as close as possible and don’t pay down contracts ever again. That needs to be the new motto. It makes money for the owners and gives Red Sox fans competitive teams year in and year out.
KD – that means you are passing on top tier free agents that will only sign for four or more years to make maximum money…..but those are usually 30ish years olds that have already reached their prime and may only have a few prime years before the down hill starts. This was DD and why he was fired. It takes a lot more effort to find the Microsoft before it when up…the Trout before he was a star….that is why the Red Sox hires Bloom! Look who is in the World Series. Tampa vs former Tampa!!!!!
Interesting comment. You’ve really bought into Bloom. You also don’t understand why DD was fired. DD wanted to spend money under the luxury tax amount but he didn’t want to be limited by past mistakes. The Panda and Hanley contracts put Boston over the luxury tax not the active roster that DD was responsible for.
Ownership needed a guy who wasn’t going to hold them accountable for their past mistakes and Bloom was the man. He was part of a GROUP at TB that made some frugal and successful decisions. The TB of 2020 added many players after Bloom left. In fact, they did a far superior job acquiring talent than Bloom did in the last year which should raise eyebrows as to how significant he was in their decision making process.
LAD, if they win, can thank Bloom since he gave them a top 2 MVP candidate for some of their depth. Yes, Verdugo started in Boston since Mookie left but wouldn’t have started in LAD. Downs probably would have never beat out Lux and Seager for an infield spot and Kong was 4th or 5th on their catcher depth chart. It’s like in fantasy baseball, you try to get a star player for 3 of your bench guys. Nobody in their right mind makes that deal but Bloom did. He’s not the root of the problem since I do believe he was forced to give away Mookie but he clearly didn’t negotiate well since we got 3 back-ups for 1 year of a superstar. Many people believe in any deal you want to be the team receiving the best player. That didn’t happen when Mookie was moved.
I root for Bloom to do well but so far the book is out on him. He’s acquired NO MLB level players to replace Mookie. In 2021, thanks to his stupidity about the Price deal, he has roughly $30M to fix the holes rather than $46M and one less hole. The Sale deal you scoffed at was excellent and will pay off going forward. The Eovaldi deal looks ok at this point if the Eovaldi of 2020 gets to face #3 SPs not #1 SPs in 2021. DD did not sign any contracts that were comparable to Hanley or Panda. Ownership did try to make him pay for their prior mistakes and so he got fired when he said he wanted to spend a comparable amount of money to the other big market teams. He insisted on ownership eating past overages since it was their mistakes. I completely agree with his approach.
Bloom as a first timer, is simply happy to have a prestigious job for his resume. It’s like being hired by a big 4 consulting firm, it will always look great on your resume even if it doesn’t last long. In the end there are winners and losers this past year. Bloom won, Friedman won, DD lost which resulted in the Red Sox fans losing not just a great GM but their face of the franchise and their dignity because we just had the worst season in a very, very long time. 2021 needs to see the Red Sox fans winning and that can only happen if Bloom is as good as you think he is. I hope you are right but as of now, I’m not impressed.
It’s like in fantasy baseball, you try to get a star player for 3 of your bench guys. Nobody in their right mind makes that deal but Bloom did.
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You have that backwards. The best possible target for a trade, and in real life, is top target someone else’s redundancies. That’s why it is so difficult to trade for SPs; because almost no one has excess pitching. It is one of the reasons why I liked SD from the start of the process.
And you have no idea that no other GM makes that trade. On the face of it, it has been a huge success.
There are many trades that sent stars to other teams for a bunch of great prospects that never developed. First one that comes to mind was DD in Detroit trading his farm system that turned out to suck to Florida for Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Or how about Johan Santana for Gomez, Humber, Guerra and Mulvey. I think the star side was the preferred side in both cases. That shoots apart your theory..
There is nothing that suggests the team getting the prospects will win the deal. Mookie’s part of the deal concluded with an incredible season. Verdugo had a good start but if he gets hurt next year and does no more and the other two clowns never start for the Red Sox, how good was the deal?
What if Verdugo is league average going forward? Couldn’t we have waited and found more than that in July? Your argument that a team should target another team’s redundancies for a top player on your team shows a deep lack of understanding of player value. Trading depth for depth makes sense but giving up top players, especially one of a handful of elite players for their depth is pure stupidity. Apparently you and Bloom are on the same page!!
Elite players must be sold at top dollar. Think of it this way. You own a Mercedes and a Camry. If you don’t get full value for your Mercedes you are screwed. If you trade your Camry for comparable car that the other deal has many of, then trading for his strength makes sense. Giving up a Mercedes for his depth is bad decision making. We gave up a Mercedes for a Mustang and two pintos in January when we needed something completely different for our most valuable Mercedes. Making end of year sales quotas would have gotten us much more for the Mercedes.
Which team has the highest dollar amount coming off the books season end?
1) Yankees, 2) Cubs, 3) Astros, 4) Dodgers…
The numbers are a bit misleading. The Yankees spent nearly $300M in 2020 but only had to pay 60/162nds of it. Nobody was within $50M of them.
Also, its key to know where each team stands with respect to luxury tax overages. The Yankees, for example, are 3 years over so 50% penalty.in 2021. They may choose to get back under but that should be hard because as you mentioned they have lots of contracts to replace and only $63M available.according to Spotrac and that number is questionable because Spotrac has the Red Sox at roughly the same committed resources for 2021 right now and I know the $60M is closer to $30M for the Red Sox since many items are not included in their numbers. Last year, Cashman made a comment about the CBA and how the new one will jump the numbers dramatically so they plan on paying fines until the new CBA. If that’s the case, they may go back up to $300M in 2021 since their profits are so good compared to everyone else and they still have no ring after spending so much in 2020..
There are many, many teams that will have money in 2021 to spend but each ownership will have to weigh the impact of COVID on their financial situation and each ownership group will need to consider the impact of a new CBA and what not agreeing to it will mean to profits as well. We might be on the fringe of a real upheaval in the baseball industry or maybe everything will work out smoothly, COVID will disappear, the CBA will be agreed to quickly and fans will pour back into the stadiums.
Lots for them to consider when seeking Free Agents this off=season.
I hope the sox re-sign castillo to a minor league deal with an invite to sping training. He was never given thaf much of a chance to prove himself before. And the reason he didn’t last was because the chances he did get, he didn’t perform enough to warrant his large salary to go against the luxury tax. On a cheap deal, he could add some big league value
123 – Rusney Castillo will be 34 years old mid season in 2021. I highly doubt any team will be interested in a low OBP player who hits ground balls. He has little power and does not get on base from BB….
It make way more sense for any GM to pay a 23 or 24 year old league minimum (around $560,000) in hopes of higher upside and 7 years of control…..if I were an owner I would think twice about my GM signing Rusney Castillo as a fourth outfielder. (One of the many reasons Ben Cherington was sent packing….final done with the last of his mistakes years after he is gone).
It seems to me the Red Sox need pitching Sunday the moment nothing else matters.
IMO the Red Sox signing Trevor Bauer to a one year contract (assuming he really wants that although I do not buy it) would be a great idea. He strengthens the whole rotation and lessens the need for Sale to hurry back. Overpay for a year and you give more time for prospects to develope and injuried players to recover.
Bauer, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Perez, Houck, and Pivetta looks a lot better to start the 2021 season as I doubt Sale will be ready.
A significant overpay for one year would be worth it.