Heading into the 2020 season, A’s shortstop Marcus Semien appeared poised to become one of the market’s top free agents. Then 29 years of age, Semien was fresh off an MVP-caliber 2019 campaign fueled by a breakout at the plate and continued improvement upon his once-shaky defensive reputation at second base. Semien posted a huge .285/.369/.522 slash with a career-best 33 homers, 10 steals and defense strong enough to make him a Gold Glove finalist at shortstop.
The 2020 season, however, has been another story entirely. In 236 plate appearances, he turned in a .223/.305/.374 batting line with seven homers and four steals. Semien’s 10.6 percent walk rate was the second-best of his career, trailing only last year’s breakout, but he went the wrong direction in virtually every other category. His strikeout rate jumped from 13.7 percent to 21.2 percent — his highest mark since 2017 — while his isolated power dipped from .237 to .152. Semien’s hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both dropped considerably.
In the field, Semien went from +12 Defensive Runs Saved to -5. Outs Above Average wasn’t particularly kind to his 2020 work, either (-4). It’s worth mentioning that Ultimate Zone Rating still pegged him as a plus defender, with his 4.8 UZR/150 nearly matching the prior season’s 5.0. On a more rudimentary level, Semien made seven errors in 451 innings in 2020 compared to just 12 errors in 1435 frames a year ago.
The difficulty of evaluating players’ successes and failures in a wholly unique 2020 season is plain to see. But for both the A’s and for other clubs who may hold interest in Semien, it’s particularly challenging. Anything close to his 2019 output would’ve made him a lock to receive an $18.9MM qualifying offer, but the Oakland org now must wonder whether he’d accept such an offer and whether they’d want him back at that rate. Other clubs will be left to wonder whether the 2019 season was a fluky outlier or whether he was on player on the rise whose 2020 struggles can be attributed to myriad factors associated with this unprecedented season.
Perhaps further complicating matters for the A’s is that they have a second player who looks worth of a qualifying offer: closer Liam Hendriks. Such a notion would’ve sounded laughable as recently as 2018, when Hendriks was put through outright waivers and went unclaimed. However, he’s come back with a vengeance and emerged not only as Oakland’s closer but as the top free-agent reliever on this year’s market and one of the best relievers in the game, period.
Over the past two seasons, Hendriks has a ridiculous 1.79 ERA, 1.70 FIP and 2.95 xFIP with averages of 13.1 strikeouts and 2.0 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s posted a superhuman 17.6 percent swinging-strike rate — including a 19 percent rate in 2020. Meanwhile, he induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a whopping 38.1 percent this year (35.1 percent dating back ti ’19). That he was named reliever of the year in the American League came as little surprise.
On many clubs, making a qualifying offer to Hendriks would be a no-brainer. However, the A’s perennially operate with one of the league’s lowest payrolls and are just months removed from having to be publicly pressured into paying their minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend. An $18.9MM salary on a reliever could well be something they’re not prepared to risk. From Hendriks’ vantage point, he’s just north of $12MM in career earnings, so an $18.9MM paycheck would surely be tempting.
At the same time, Hendriks surely took note when a less-dominant reliever, left-hander Will Smith, rejected a qualifying offer last year and still secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves. If his camp believes such a deal is out there, then rejecting would be a better move; even in a worst-case scenario, he’d surely be able to command a sizable one-year deal in free agency — albeit likely not at that $18.9MM level. But if Hendriks believes the downside of rejecting a qualifying offer is, say, a one-year deal at $10MM, he’d be risking the $8.9MM difference for a multi-year deal that guarantees him perhaps $20MM or more beyond the value of the qualifying offer.
All of this, of course, could be a moot point. The A’s might decide that they don’t want to risk a qualifying offer for either player. They’re already on the hook for $16.5MM to Khris Davis, $7.25MM to Stephen Piscotty and $4MM to Jake Diekman next year. They’ll also see both Matt Chapman and Matt Olson receive sizable salary bumps as they enter arbitration for the first time — the headliners in a class which also features Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Mark Canha and Frankie Montas, among others. Projecting arbitration salaries for that bunch is trickier than ever given the shortened season and revenue losses, but they should command more than $20MM.
There are some split camps on how the A’s will proceed on this front. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested on the former’s podcast last week that they still feel there’s a good chance Semien will receive an offer. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted recently, however, that a qualifying offer for Semien may not be realistic given the heft of that would-be salary.
The A’s were already slated to head into the 2020 season with what would’ve been a record payroll, just north of $100MM, prior to prorating this year’s salaries. Between the guarantees to Davis, Piscotty and Diekman; the arbitration raises to Chapman, Olson, Manaea, Bassitt, Canha and Montas; and the would-be $18.9MM salaries to Semien and Hendriks (should they accept), the A’s would already be close to $90MM. That’s before factoring in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster and any offseason additions they might hope to make.
Frankly, it’s difficult to see this club being willing to take this type of risk, although there’s an argument to be made in favor of both. A one-year deal for Semien would prove to be a nice value, for instance, if he rebounds to something between his 2019 and 2020 levels. And Smith’s contract with the Braves last year certainly lends credence to the idea that Hendriks could reject, which would give the A’s a valuable compensatory draft pick if he departs.
Let’s open this up for MLBTR readers to weigh in on a pair of questions:
Should the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
Will the A’s make a qualifying offer to Semien and/or Hendriks? (Link to poll for app users)
Dodgers collect all ex-A’s relievers challenge
that might be hard because they have a lot of pending FA relievers
1 doesn’t mean all. SMH He was a free agent and only the dodgers was willing to pay him. $10 million for a guy who had 1 save a mediocre ERA is a lot of wasted money.
Assuming you value saves and ERA…..
What about WHIP? 1.21 WHIP is not great. Under 1 is great
Isn’t Trienen the only A’s reliever they picked up within any recent history or an I mistaken?
Only one
Again their value in Trienen is not the stars, but what he could bring in the playoffs. For a situation like yesterday throwing on the 3rd day in a row, and having the ability to shut the door along with posting up in any situational aspect during the game and not having to solely be inserted in the 9th with a lead.
What’s been proven over & over is the Dodgers depth can get then to the dance., but over and over again their arms have been short. Yeah 10M is all relative, but for situations he’s in like yesterday he’s worth every penny. In no means close to wasted money, especially for a team trying to close out a WS.
And Devin Williams had zero saves. He was pretty good.
You really think the dodgers care about (prorated)10 million bucks. They got plenty of value from Treinen when he took over the closers role right in the middle of the World Series. Unless he blows these last 2 games he earned every cent worth of that money and it was money well spent by the dodgers.
Dodgers collect the A’s ex relievers that they collected from the Royals challenge
The only Devin Williams I could find is on the Brewer’s and has never pitched for the Dodgers. So far, it looks to me like Trienen is the only one, kind of making the original statement just silly.
Hendricks is great, but $19 millon great? i dont think so.
I would assume Hendricks would decline the QO as he would land a more lucrative multi year deal. It’s not just about AAV, Hendricks would probably secure a deal around 15 million per for at least 4 years. Me personally however I think a four year deal has disaster written all over it.
With Semien, there is no chance I would give him a Qualifying Offer. I’m sorry but he has one outstanding year. Outside of that one great year he has basically been Andrelton Simmons and there is no way I’d even consider giving Simmons a QO.
Semien strikes out WAY too much, year to year he doesn’t provide the power you would expect out of that K rate and his on base percentage is awful.
Agree broadly with the point about Hendriks, though I think he’d be capped around three years. We haven’t seen a four-year deal like that for a reliever since Melancon, Jansen and Chapman were all free agents four years ago.
As for Semien, his K% is well south of the league average since being traded to Oakland, although the OBP questions are certainly valid.
According to baseball savant he is right at league average. I personally see 130 plus K’s per season as too many considering his mediocre power the majority of those seasons.
Kimbrel got three years plus a fourth year option with question marks surrounding him.
I think Hendricks gets four… in fairness to the market, there hasn’t been a dominate closer reach free agency since Champan and Jensen.
My thoughts exactly, Drasco. I’d offer Liam the QO because I’m pretty sure he declines it. He’s probably going to be too expensive for Oakland, so that at least nets them something for him leaving. If he doesn’t turn it down, then you get him on a 1 year deal. It may handicap them a bit financially but there really isn’t such a thing as a disastrous 1 yr agreement.
I wouldn’t gamble on Semien, though. I think he’d take it almost without a second thought to try and rebuild his value.
In a Normal year, offering Hendrick the QO is close to a no-brainer, even if he accepts and A’s think the salary to to rich for them, they can still find a team that will take him on a one year $19 Million deal and maybe the A’s can get something that can help them in return, but these are not normal times and I don’t know if a team willing to take Hendricks at $19 million in 2021 as no one will really knows the situation with the fans until late in this offseason.
I say the A’s don’t want to take he risk of Hendricks accepting and let him walk for nothing. Going to be a painful decision for the A’s to make.
With Semien, I think he takes the QO and tries to rebuild his value and test free agency in 2021. I know lots of big SS names are on the market in 2021 but good chance a couple of these guys will be extended.
$20 million is way to much for a closer in a year with revenue down. Only a couple FA will break the $20 million a year mark.
I’d disagree. If you’re a potential playoff team you need a closer. Relief pitching is volatile, so I don’t like seeing teams go long-term on relievers. I don’t think 20m is too much a season on a closer though.
Unless its one of the few holes on a big revenue contending team $20 million is a lot for a reliever. We will see what the market brings him.
I agree that it’s too much for a closer but that is only a fraction of the picture. Hendricks would most likely get between 13-15 million per season across 3-4 years. So the good money would be Hendricks would decline the QO.
Hendricks is coming off two dominate years, the money isn’t going to be higher next season being a year older.
I truly can’t imagine why any player would choose to play in Oakland long term if given a choice. They perennially make the claim that they play in a “small market” and therefore cannot afford to spend to attract and/or retain key home grown players and/or free agents. Yet they share the SF Bay Area, which last time I looked is one of the top 5 media markets in the US. Due to their incompetence, they have been unable/unwilling to secure the private financing required in the Bay Area to build a suitable new ballpark that is required to attract fans and obtain the revenues necessary to have a competitive payroll level. Beane is great at drumming up his own celebrity status when in fact many of his moves have backfired. When his moves come up short, he blames the “small market” that he plays in … in fact, he is part owner and he’s incentivized by profits, not wins. As a result of all this, they are constantly tearing down and building up, never quite achieving enough to even sniff any titles. What player would want to be part of this long term?
Beane is leaving e
A’s previous owner was dead set on San Jose. The majority owner now is in control of the team and they are planning on building a new stadium next year in jack London square. Since you don’t live in the bay area you did not know that. The land has been purchased and just one more environmental issue to deal with. The stadium will be built by the team without tax payers funds. Last time the A’s had a stadium ready former mayor Brown axed the deal. this time the mayor is behind the deal.
I do live in the Bay Area and I do know that the Howard Terminal ballpark project is termed “fantasy island” by many key people in the know … it has zero public transit options, is planned on a toxic wasteland and is currently being challenged in a lawsuit … it has not received an environmental report and oh by the way, there has been no plan for firm financing that has been revealed.
It did receive a environmental report. There is no lawsuit Sierra club opposes it because of fearing rising water. What a joke that is. .Just shows the giants will pay anyone to stop competition. There is a public transportation to the stadium. One idea is the tram. Toxic waste now that is funny because Giants and Warriors had stadiums built on toxic waste areas. It is being financed. Unfortunately its not like San Francisco leaders who pay off everyone. Willie Brown gave away a lot of free tickets and money to get their stadium built. Now I know why you hate the A’s you are a giant troll.
Ha! Typical a’s fan … don’t presume you know my affiliation. a’s fans (both of them) always blame the Giants for all of their problems. Instead they should look at their own organization and utter incompetence for the last 20 years to find and build a suitable ballpark. Ha!!!
The other factor to consider is the quality of the pick that Oakland would receive. As a revenue sharing recipient, if either player signs for more than $50m (unlikely for Hendriks but very possible for Semien) the A’s would get a pick between the first round and the Competitive Balance Round A. That pick would be in the 30-35 range, which has considerable value. It would be different if the team losing the QO free agent were a luxury tax payor, who would only get a pick in the 100-ish range.
worth noting though the lack of a 2020 season for college and HS players could make next year’s draft hard to gauge talent for.
Unfortunately, the odds of that pick coming even remotely close to either of those players is very low. Less than 20% compiled even a positive WAR for their career.
In the ballpark they play in, it’s a lot easier to make an average reliever look like an All Star caliber guy than to make an average shortstop look like an All Star caliber guy. Because of that, if I am choosing between the two, I am definitely picking Semien. No way do I give the QO to Hendriks. As far as Semien goes, I would gamble on giving it to him. You can’t really tell anything based on this short season and they already spent 5 years developing him into a star. At the very least, when he accepts (and he will), you’d have a chance for him to rebuild his value for a possible deadline move next season.
Semien only has one excellent year but besides 2019 he was nothing special, I think the market is going to be to skeptical about him and with likely a lot to most teams cutting back on payroll or not adding to it leaving Semien options limited and will not get offers nowhere close to the $19 Million AAV.
I think if A’s offer him the QO, then he will accept no doubt and try to rebuild his value for 2021 and prove 2019 was not a outliner season, but I highly doubt the A’s can afford to pay him $19 million in 2021 and will not take the risk and let him walk.
The small market A’s are also not really in a position to lose a potential MVP caliber player for nothing. It’s possible that 2019 was an outlier, but it’s also possible that 2020 was. Semien was not some guy that just came out of nowhere. He was a top prospect that was the main guy in the Jeff Samardzija trade back when Samardzija was considered an ace. He has the pedigree and an actual proven full season where he probably should have won the MVP.
The QO is a gamble, but it’s not a long term gamble. There is no such thing as a really bad one year contract. Even if he flops, he’s off the payroll next season. There is really only three ways it could go. You get a solid big leaguer that can help you try to win a championship in 2021. Or he rebounds and you trade him for a prospect package at the deadline.. Or he flops and is off the payroll next year and even then, you could still trade him for something at the deadline. To me, the upside far outweighs any downside.
The A’s are not a small market team, by a long shot.
Based on revenue, giants sharing market, lousy tv deal, etc. issue is the top 5 richest owner unwilling to invest more payroll at least until a new ballpark, which may or may not happen at least anytime soon
I don’t think Semien has enough of a track record, especially with how tight of a budget Oakland operates with. It just isn’t worth it to risk him accepting that QO. With Hendriks, it really comes down to how confident Oakland is that he will decline the offer to try to get a longer deal. If they are confident Hendriks will decline the offer, might at well get something out of him leaving.
It’s funny that some people (not you specifically) discount Semien’s actual proven track record, but they go ga-ga over some guy in low A ball just because someone puts him on a prospect list. Seattle gave more money to Evan White before he ever saw a major league pitch.
The one thing missing from this article and comments is this… The A’s / Semien situation seems very similar to the White Sox / Jose Abreu situation. Semien is from the Bay area and has expressed desire to stay with the team. They are going to work out a deal. But in the meantime, the A’s will and should off the QO and Semien will and should accept.
None of it will matter, because they’ll work out a long-term extension afterwards. But for the purposes of the poll, both “will” and “should” on Semien. That’s exactly how it happened with the Sox and Abreu.
. Abreu was a absolute no-brainer to extend the qualifying offer too, he has been one of the most consistent productive hitters the majors for many years and left no doubt on the table what he can provide for your team and he is the face of the White Sox as well.
Semien has one good year and rest have been ok and nowhere near QO territory where Abreu has been worth the QO every year he has been in the league.
The QO to Abreu last offseason was just a formality, they always knew they would get a long term deal worked out. Semian not so much and it is a risk the A’s cannot take
Agreed patches. Abreu has been consistent every year where as semien has had one superstar year. It’s a tough call but I’d still shoot a QO semiens way. If he excepts and has a 2019 type season then that’s great for Oakland. If not, it only for one year
Neither player is good enough to pass on the qualifying offer to test the open market w a pick tied to their name. So if A’s want to make sure they retain one or both – all they have to do is make an offer.
Also the financial restrictions of Oakland is irrelevant. Their past couple seasons of fans have gone well and the stock market has done well. So them, along w most have the flexibility to spend if they choose too.
The market is flooded with more short stops than teams and there won’t be enough buyers especially if there are a couple trades. I think Simeon is odd man out. He probably struggles to get 12 million or a multi year deal so I’d hard pass on him if I’m Oakland and maybe look to bring him back if they can’t fill it with a better option.
I also see em pass on Hendriks. It’s just always been against their business strategy to do so. If they do though- they won’t be able to bring him back. So they should QO him; especially since you don’t know what u have in Puk next season.
Is it bad to say Liam Hendricks is the A’s next closest thing to Eckersly. They both started out as starters but found a home in the pen. I’m not saying Hendricks is that good but pretty interesting.
Almost every reliever in baseball has that background.
Both are the best available options at their respective positions, which changes their market value.
Both will likely fall short of $19 million per year but make much more in guaranteed money over the course of a deal, so both likely decline.
With the advances made to Stadium tracking systems, I highly doubt teams will continue to use UZR as a metric for grading a player’s range. If you understand how UZR is calculated, just because you made a play from a certain quadrant on the field doesn’t tell the whole story as to what skill sets were used to complete the play.
Exactly. 100 balls hit to the left of SS A are not the same as 100 balls hit to the left of SS B. Attribute it to the field, attribute it to the pitcher, whatever, they won’t be the same and they can be hugely variant. Just saying they will average out over the course of a season doesn’t make it so. Always seemed obvious to me, so I have never put great stock in advanced defensive statistics going back to the beginning with Bill James.
Semien does not have great range and it’s only going to decline. Having Matt Chapman at third allows any A’s shortstop to play further to his left than on other teams, but after Chapman went on the IL, Semien looked barely adequate.
A’s are so screwed here, they know both will instantly accept the QO so they will be hesitant to make them one even though it is a given for top level impending free agents.
With the pandemic induced financial uncertainty, $20 million for a season to rebuild or maintain value could be attractive to more players than usual. Hendricks will accept because $20 million would be a life changing sum for him and Semien will accept in order to rebuild his value after a down 2020 season without taking a pay cut to do it.
There is no way Hendricks would accept a QO.
Hendricks would get Kimbrel money… i.e. 3 years at 16 million plus a 1 million buyout on his option. Sure, 18.9 is more than 16 but it’s a far cry from 48 million and I think that is a low bar for him as for Kimbrel had some question marks attached to him that Hendricks doesn’t.
Semien of course would roll the dice on 18.9 million because his earning power right now is very low. Hendricks value will not be higher than it is right now. He’s healthy and dominate.
Pre mid season 2019 I would’ve never imagined hendriks anything close to that amount. Credit to him for working himself back. He always had good stuff, inflated era, and as a fan not fun to watch. He’ll definitely want to cash in since this might be the largest and maybe only big contract he’ll get an opportunity for
The only thing with Hendricks is, he hasn’t been that good for that long. The only elite full season he ever had was 2019 and he’ll be 32 next season. If he takes the QO then he needs to remain an elite player next year and also not get hurt, otherwise he could end up with a small bounce back deal and less money in the long run.
It might make sense for him to take more guaranteed spread out over more years, like 45 or 50M over 3 years, just in case theres an injury or decline in performance, or something goes wrong. I think Will Smith is probably pretty happy with his decision to decline the QO and take the guaranteed years.
Putting this in an As thread hoping to get some perspective from that side
Semien could leave Oakland. At same time, Justin Turner on LA is also a free agent. It wouldn’t shock me if before LA tries to re-sign Turner, they call the As about Matt Chapman
Even with the injury, the price will obviously be huge. He is one of the few players skilled enough I could see Friedman offering Lux+additional talent.
Lux was the 2nd prospect in all of baseball before this year, and has 6 seasons of control where he could slot right into SS for Oakland. Would pitching be of interest? Other infielders?
Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Gonsolin, Mitch White, Kody Hoese are all likely on the table in this type of trade. Curious what Oakland fans feel would be fair value?
Probably one of the few teams that could offer enough for Chapman. Boras is Chapman’s agent so there is no way the A’s will sign Chapman because Boras wants Trout type money. Lux, May, and a couple of lower level prospects would do it with A’s sending over Chapman and Canha.
I’ll be honest, I’ll be pretty shocked if Friedman sends May+Lux *any* single place in one deal
The As may get their choice if either/or, and then more pieces. I can totally see that. just based on Friedman’s track record I’d be surprised if he shipped Lux+May in 1 package. I do agree that would get the ball moving haha
Not sure Canha does much for LA, with Cody, Betts, CT3 and Pollock all back next year. More would have to be done from LA side to value Canha
I was thinking Lux, Gonsolin, Ruiz and maybe Gray for Chapman and maybe a AA throw in that Friedman loves to target
2B/SS MLB ready, SP mlb ready, Catcher probably a year off mlb ready, Gray likely impacts mlb team next year too. Everyone but Gonsolin has 6 years of control, Tony has 5. Would push the As forward in a couple different spots. Any opinion? Too little? reasonable starting point? Etc
Lux, Gray and Rios would be more ideal. I could imagine, maybe the A’s would throwin Davis as well – so they can free up space to resign Semien.
I could see that, with Rios being able to play 3B. Lux could go to 2B and Seimien at short. Or lux to short if he leaves
Assuming Chapman is healthy, I’d do that and think LA would have to look strongly at it
Davis would be there just to eat that money, more likely lad would flip him and Eat his salary to buy a prospect than he would be on 2021s team. But Friedman loves taking a bad contract if it buys him a prospect
Right, maybe a Skye Bolt along with Chapman and Davis would seal the deal.
I don’t see bolt, Fowler, brown ever getting a chance in Oakland. They’re just getting older stuck in AAA, with sparse opportunities ala max muncy. A’s seem to love grossman, who did have a good season. I could see them making an attempt to resign him since I doubt he gets a ton of offers or a contract that’s out of their price range
Kike and Joc are also feee agents in LA. So a utility piece coming back makes sense
They seem to line up reasonably well. Will be interesting to see what(if anything) comes to fruition.
With this situation with losing Seimien possibly for nothing, makes me think the As don’t want to lose Chapman the same way in a few years. They likely could wait another year, but at this point I think the package will just slowly get smaller the longer they wait.
It would make sense on the A’s side financially and the dodgers side as well since they’ll get the additional piece to be WS contenders for 2-5 more seasons.
If Bob Nightengale says it’s likely that Semien receives an offer that means he won’t.
Both these players seem like a huge risk to me. Semien because he hasn’t come close to the production he did in 2019 before and though someone said he has good pedigree with high prospect rankings, the best I found was an 8th ranked placing in the White Sox organization. If someone finds a better finishing please place the link for me but I struggle to find anything that would verify 2019 as something he will do again outside of 2019 again. He certainly didn’t reproduce it the following year. Even if we cut him some slack, 2020 didn’t help his case at all.
Hendricks, well, I have an allergic reaction to signing relievers to large contracts. They are the most volatile player on a team.
Amazing that he was outrighted just 2 years ago and now some think he could get a 5 year deal (Or even 4…)
This is a crazy game
I think that the A’s should proactively offer Hendricks a three-year $36 million offer and try to keep him while they still have their current core team. Maybe he would take a home town discount if he likes his current situation. It’s alot for the A’s to spend, but would be a steal of a deal if he stays a dominant closer. It would require both sides to give a little.
As for Semian, offer him the qualifying deal to guarantee at least a decent draft pick. If he accepts, there is a good chance he has another solid year as he tries to impress for 2022 free agent market.