After an offseason when the 91-loss Colorado Rockies stayed mostly silent due to financial constraints, the Rockies entered 2020 with low expectations from the national media. They nonetheless jumped out to an 11-3 start, forcing consideration of the Rockies as a potential playoff contender. The bottom fell out before long, however, as the Rockies turned in a minus-68 run differential and fell towards the bottom of the National League. After four straight losses, they’re now 23-29 and 3 games out of a playoff spot.
Making matters worse, star third baseman Nolan Arenado recently underwent tests on his sore left shoulder, and it’s possible the Rox will be without their superstar for the remaining 8 games, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. He’s been affected all season by the injury to the A/C joint of his left shoulder, perhaps helping contribute to a substandard (for him) .253/.303/.434 slash line with 8 home runs over 201 plate appearances. 1.4 rWAR over 48-games is nothing to sneeze at – it still extrapolates out to 4.7 rWAR over 162.
Just two years into his 8-year, $260MM deal and there’s more uncertainty than ever around Arenado’s future in Colorado. His priority has been clear: he wants to play for a contender. Per Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post, when questioned about whether making the playoffs this season would serve as proof of concept for the Rockies being on the right track, he answered, “No question for me. Eight teams (out of 15) make the playoffs and if we’re not one of those eight teams that’s not a very good sign.” The Rockies were already in a tough place payroll-wise, and after losing so much expected revenue because of the coronavirus pandemic, they are likely entering an even harsher financial climate. Paired with the opt-out Arenado holds following the 2021 season, and a legitimate case can be made for the wisdom – or even necessity – of an Arenado trade.
The Rockies playoff hopes aren’t dead yet, however. Four games at San Francisco and four more at Arizona are winnable games to round out the season. Still, second place in the West is well out of reach, leaving the Rockies to compete for 1 of 2 wild card spots in a battle royal of contenders that includes two of the Cardinals, Reds, and Brewers, two of the Phillies, Marlins, and Mets, and of course, the Giants. Two of those seven clubs will make the playoffs via the 2nd place slot in their divisions, leaving five teams the Rockies need to leapfrog in the final week of games in order to reach postseason play. A sweep of the Giants would put them a game ahead of San Francisco, but that’s a lot to expect from a team with a .316 winning percentage over their last 38 games.
“His priority has been clear: he wants to play for a contender.”
This is demonstrably false.
His priority was signing a $260M contract and he succeeded.
Rockies were coming off a 91 win season with the best young rotation they may have ever had when he signed
Before the pandemic hit, Rockies were a 94-win team
Sorry, I just never get tired of that Monfort joke
I think he meant loss season.
How is it “demonstrably” false? Do you even know what that word means?
It’s a falsitude, judge!
It means there is no evidence to support the fact his highest priority is winning and, in fact, the evidence supports he doesn’t care. If his priority was winning, he would have signed with a competitive team.
Their farm system is regularly ranked in the bottom and their major league team has only a had few relatively successful seasons in their entire existence.
“His priority has been clear: he wants to play for a contender.”
This is demonstrably false.
Any player that was purely motivated by winning would not accept a long term commitment from the Rockies.
I can’t believe anyone disagrees with you on this Sadler. Unreal.
Because by his logic, Arenado was supposed to know that the 200M his team spent on FAs *NOT* including himself would produce a -4 war since his signing. Negative 4 WAR, from 5 spots, over multiple seasons. It a cumulative counting stat….Not a typo
LAD broadcast was talking about this 2 nights ago. You can call the deals dumb or the GM dumb or whatever. But Arenado signed when they won 91 games, made the playoffs and then spent 100M in the pen and an additional 100M on a 1B and in theory 2B/LF (Murphy/Desmond). He emphatically said pre extension he’s only gonna sign if they are planning to spend to win. They did all that, and gave him Market value+years(plus opt out!) before he reached the market, giving him as a business man zero reason to not accept… BUT
It’s his fault they haven’t spent a competitive dime since!? That means he doesn’t want to win? Lmao he even put the opt out to call the Rockies BS, if they BS’d. They got burnt on the deals and closed the pocket books
They BS’d. This is classic mid market team ponies up to extend player, then make other good faith moves to show they’re serious spending. But that leads to stupid contracts for mediocre not great players that lock up payroll for years, and leave a team with more holes than Swiss cheese
But Arenado knew all that was coming! That’s the only way his logic makes sense. If you ignore everything around the signing and what was fact at the time.
Demonstrably true commonsense.
Well said
Your second comment helped make Sadler’s case; Colorado has been hamstrung by contracts. Logically if a player wants to win and realizes if he takes a contract where his luxury hit would be $32.5-mil per season on-top of said bad contracts with a threshold below $210-mil, you weren’t really thinking about competing as much as you want people to believe.
He wanted to get paid. Nothing wrong with that. Let’s not pretend he was all about competing. He wanted his piece and got it. This was not a team in a situation to add much more unless they were prepared to spend beyond the threshold.
He wanted a payday. Plain and simple. Winning was just icing on the cake.
As others said, they were coming off a 94 win season. But Invested no new money in their rotation, and the 100M they spent in the bullpen turned in ERAs collectively over 5. They’re paying McGee 9M to pitch for LA
They’ve been hamstrung by those contracts plus Murphy,Desmond and Blackmon to an extent (when hurt). Add in 35M for Arenado… and a 146M-155M payroll… where’s the money? They haven’t done anything more and the on the field product has been ugly for a couple years. Yes they had bad luck with all those guys doing badly, but they knew they were on a couple year trial with Arenado
They flashed market rate at him multiple years before free agency. Of course he would sign. with the opt out, there was no reason for him to not
Really bad look for Arenado.
When YOU are one of the highest paid players in the sport, YOU are supposed to lead YOUR team to victory.
Not to whine until they move you to a “winner” where others can do the heavy lifting for you.
Not in baseball. Trout never won a playoff game
Has Trout demanded out? No, he just keeps grinding, without complaint.
He signed the contract under the premise the rockies would do their part to put together a contender……which is why he has a player option after 2021 in his contract……3 years after agreeing to the deal.
Rockies did nothing to improve their team this offseason.
If rockies aren’t going to live up to them promising him theyd do their best to contend why should he stay committed to them?
Trout can’t say Angels haven’t been trying. Theyve spent tons of money to try and contend.
That would be an interesting test if the Rockies let it get to that point.
He wouldn’t come close to his current deal if he did opt out. Would he leave all of that money on the table to sign with a “winner”?
I’d guess “not a chance”.
On paper, a front four of Gray, Marquez, Freeland, and Senzatela is a solid start toward building a winner. Arenado was/is also part of an offensive nucleus that includes Story, Blackmon, and Dahl, Letting LeMahieu leave was a mistake though no one vigorously pointed that out at the time. And many people thought signing Murphy would pay off due to his Coors history, though it clearly has not (has there ever been a worse defensive 1B?). But the main problem has been the pitching, which is nothing new to Coors.
As for the Angels, they have bungled every step of Trout’s career. A terrible organization — the polar opposite of L.A.’s real team. Free agency has never been a way to build a contender. Wake me when they draft and develop a decent pitcher.
“Letting LeMahieu leave was a mistake though no one vigorously pointed that out at the time.”
Not to pat myself on the back, but I did. Of course, my opinion doesn’t really matter much in the grand scheme of things. DJ was always one of my favorite Rockies of all time, long before Yankees fans “discovered” him.
They’ve spent tons of money on offense
The angels have paid a pitcher a base salary over 12M since 2016. You’re not winning many divisions with that type of rotation. THATS not trying to win around Trout
Would he get come close? Define close. 70%, 75%, 80%, 90%, 95%? 70% of his salary is 24.5 mill.
Would he take 25 mill a year to play elsewhere and content? Yes, yes he would if the rockies arent even trying to improve this off season.
He’ll be what 31 for 2022 season? Definitely can see a 4 year 100 mill job offer with a 5th year option or even a 5 year 125 mill offer out there from many suitors.
That should be have not*** Re: Angels
Missed edit window
The Angels just happen to not be very intelligent as an organization.
He should tho
Hard for one player to win a playoff Gm, even for Trout
Especially when the superstar has underperformed.
Underperformed this yr because of a shoulder injury, not like he has been terrible but just not up to his lofty standards.
Has Arenado underperformed? Perhaps. But he’s been worth the contract too
The article said he would have a 4.7 WAR on this pace over a full year. The free agent price per win is 9.1M in2020. That would mean his production is worth 42.77M, extrapolated. He’s out producing his AAV at 35M. So hes not the problem….
Arenado does plenty of heavy lifting. Have you ever tried to lift $260 million?
It’s not difficult…it’s all digital these days, man!
Well am I glad that we didn’t trade for that guy lol.
It would be worse if he was a Ranger. At least the Rockies have Story and Blackmon to go with Arenado. The Rockies also have the makings of a decent rotation if not for..well.. you know.
It’s not “after four straight losses.” They won this afternoon.
Rockies are likely stuck with Arenado as any team that would look to trade for him would surely think of him as the .260 to .270 hitter that he is with much less power on the road. Massively overpaid for that level of production.
First off, the Rockies don’t mind being “stuck” with him. That’s why they signed him. The problem is that the option is not theirs, it is his. He can opt out of the deal after next season. I don’t like to pick on people for not knowing the whole story, but you pretty much have the whole concept wrong here.
He signed the extension. Make your bed, lie in it. The money was a priority. Where on the level of importance we are not sure.
Plenty of teams will be looking to address their 3B situation in the offseason. Colorado might want to consider rebuilding. They aren’t catching LA or SD anytime soon.
The Colorado Avalanche have as good a chance to win as the the New York Rangers.
The Denver Nuggets have as good a chance to win as the New York Knicks.
The Denver Broncos have as good a chance to win as the New York Giants.
Do the Colorado Rockies have as good a chance to win as the New York Yankees?
The bad guy in this situation isn’t really Arenado or the Rockies, but MLB’s “finger on the scale for the big market teams” economic structure.
Having said that, that was the landscape in which he signed his deal and no one thinks it will change anytime soon.
Yeah, I’m not going to say that all the mid and small market teams have no problems with how they’re run, but the system is slanted towards the big money teams. It’s not like the lower revenue teams can’t spend, but what they can’t do is miss on spending. If contracts don’t work out they can’t just simply shrug and keep signing other players like they could if they had twice the revenue. The Yankees have enough revenue to supply any two of the bottom 18 teams in revenue. The big money teams spend without worrying about it, even taking on lousy contracts just to get other players in trades, and still just game the feeble luxury tax controls.
I say the Rangers or Mets need to make a trade for Nolan but I doubt either team has the pieces to get him. Rangers were unwilling to trade Gallo at the deadline. Gallo at Coors Field could be scary.
Arenado doesn’t play on Sundays even when healthy – perhaps he should include himself in all games if he’s so intent on winning.
Yeah, I fully recognize every situation is complicated and we don’t hear all the details… but it just kinda looks like a toxic relationship all around versus one party clearly getting wronged by the other.
Rangers should definitely revisit possible trade here involving Lynn, Montero and prospects if Arrenado agrees to waive opt out entirely or delay for three years.
Jeff Bridich‘s job is in more serious jeopardy.
Just trade him to Atlanta already.