A month ago, the New York Mets made the bold move to transition two of their highest-volume relievers to the rotation. Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo each came to the majors with expectations of starting, but after years of working effectively out of the bullpen, the Mets gambled by moving the pair back to the rotation mid-season. The experiment is over for Gsellman, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.
Gsellman’s longest outing was a 4-inning stint in which he allowed one run while striking out four and walking none. While the Mets eventually lost that game 2-1, it was the only game of the four Gsellman started that went that way. Still, short outings and an 8.68 ERA suggest Gsellman is better suited to returning to his usual role in the bullpen, where the Mets rank 11th as a team by ERA and 12th by FIP.
Besides, the Mets’ rotation is full again with ace Jacob deGrom followed by Rick Porcello, David Peterson, and Michael Wacha. The 25-year-old Peterson has been a pleasant surprise, going 4-1 with a 3.03 ERA/4.02 FIP. His emergence has been especially important considering the de-evolution and subsequent injured list stint for fellow southpaw Steven Matz. Matz slumped to a 0-4 mark with an unsightly 8.63 ERA/6.69 FIP before being placed on the injured list for shoulder bursitis.
The right-handed, non-deGrom, veteran division of the rotation – consisting of Porcello and Wacha – have produced subpar results by measure of ERA, but take a look at an ERA-indicator like FIP and you’ll find a much different story. Porcello boasts just a 1-4 record over 8 starts (39 innings) with a 5.54 ERA – but a 2.97 FIP. Wacha, similarly, has a horrid 7.20 ERA over 5 starts (20 innings) – but a much more respectable 4.40 FIP. Wacha in particular has shown an impressive 12.2 K/9, easily a career high, but he’s also surrendered 12.6 hits per nine innings, a mark that’s equally outside his career norms. A .429 BABIP against might be partially responsible for the discrepancy between FIP and ERA, giving the Mets cause to believe in their rotation over the season’s final three weeks.
Lugo will continue to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation. Long one of New York’s most reliable relievers, Lugo has continued to impress from the rotation. While no stranger to the rotation – Lugo made 31 starts from 2016 to 2018 – he worked exclusively out of the pen in 2019 for an identical 2.70 ERA/FIP across 61 appearances covering 80 innings. He’s been their most reliable bullpen arm in recent seasons, but having acquired Miguel Castro from the Orioles at the deadline and moving Gsellman back to the pen, the Mets are betting that they can afford to keep Lugo in the rotation for now. The 30-year-old has done an admirable job stretching himself to starter’s minutes, culminating in a 5-inning outing his last time out. In total, Lugo has a 1.54 ERA across 11 2/3 innings since moving to the rotation.
History – Hey mets, probably NOT a good idea to mess with Gsellman and move him to the rotation from the pen…….ruined Joba Chamberlain, Brandon Maurer when he was with the Padres, Daniel Bard, Neftali Feliz, Joe Biagini, among others.
Mets- Whatever, we are going to do it anyways.
Every smart person who knew it would be a bad idea – “Still, short outings and an 8.68 ERA suggest Gsellman is better suited to returning to his usual role in the bullpen”
Meh, it’s worth a shot. Gsellman isn’t that special that he can’t be moved around as fits. Lugo is a better comp to Chamberlain.
Chamberlain and Papelbon should have been starters until they proved they couldn’t.. The best model is what the Cardinals did with Wainwright and the Rays with Price in moving them to the rotation after they were in the pen. A good starter throwing 160 innings a year provides more value to a team–and salary to the player–than a very good reliever throwing 80 innings. The kind of pitcher that should just be in the pen is one that a) really only has one or two pitches; b) can’t get through a lineup more than one, and/or c) is substantially more effective throwing in short spurts than longer outings, often because his velocity is much higher when he doesn’t have to conserve strength for endurance (i.e: a sprinter, not a distance runner).
Marc from Brooklyn, I agree. If a young pitcher has talent but needs another pitch, it is wise to groom him and have him develop that pitch as opposed to sentencing him to the bullpen. Aside from covering as many innings as possible, it makes economic sense in a modern game where years of control is critical. The Dodgers, Indians, Rays, and Padres understand this. Expect more teams to follow. The Dodgers and Indians are both paying four of their starters considerably less than what the Mets pay Porcello.
Re Lugo. Next season he will be 31 and has never pitched more than 101 innings in a season. In 2020 he will top out at around 50. He is a reliever, whose best value at this point for the Mets might be in a trade., Forcing him to start in 2021 because you have no one else is risky business.
Mets have Degrom Matz and Noah once back – Wacha and Porcello are one year fillers.Peterson is showing us some good so we have that-They will need to sign 2-3 Starting pitchers next off season. With Cohen’s money that is doable. Having Lugo as a starter helps.
MetsFan22, is that you under a different screen name?
Gsellman’s not exactly up for Roland’s Reliever of the Year.
Happy someone mentioned the history involved with moving high leverage RP to the rotation. Doesn’t always workout on paper like some teams think.
Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, and Lance Lynn all turned out pretty darn well in transitioning back to starting after establishing themselves as productive big league relievers. So did Derek Lowe, if you want to go back further. Plenty of others. Plenty of guys have tried the transition unsuccessfully, then gone right back to being strong relievers, but even if it does ruin a guy, you lose more value by not finding out you have a stud starter than you do by wrecking a stud middle reliever.
Piling on with Oooof, John Smoltz is an example of a starter who was a dominant starter, became a dominant closer and went back to being a dominant starter. I think you will find enough examples of this that it isn’t so rare. Hell, Lugo is listed on this article and there is good reason to believe HE might make a pretty good conversion example especially since he has some history as a starter.
John Smoltz is GOD!
Hey,dummy,Gsellman has NEVER done anything in the Bullpen so the Mets have nothing to lose with Starting him!
Does anyone remember CIN thinking about stretching Chapman out into a starter lol
Pepperidge Farms remembers.
“Pepperidge Farms bread is TOO fancy. It’s wrapped TWICE. Nothing should stand in the way of me getting toast quicker”–Mitch Hedberg
I remember. Best thing was keeping him as a closer.
It’s ALOT easier to find a a solid closer than a true Ace.
Have there been any notable success stories when trying to convert reliever to a starter? C. J. Wilson of the Rangers/Angels maybe? I’m drawing a blank. Interested in hearing from others on this.
Smoltz went back and forth, with great success starting both before and after he was a closer. Otherwise I can’t think of a guy that was a reliever for 2 or more seasons and then transferred to starting successfully.
Btw, I don’t count guys that were starters but got a few relief appearances when they came up to the mlb team and then went into the rotation the next year (i.e. Price)
Smoltz, good example. Been few and far between pitchers like him though.
Smoltz really only did it because of injury. Derek Lowe probably the most successful, starting only 22 of his first approx 300 games, then was a good starter for about 10 years
Derek Lowe! Good shout
Not really. He was a starter for years before going to the pen to limit his IP
Braden Looper too
The thing is Gsellman came up as a starter and had success his rookie season so he’s done it before. But has someone who came up through the minors as a reliever ever become a successful starter midway through his career? Wouldn’t surprise me if the answer was no, although there’s probably someone, depending on your definition of success
Derek Lowe.
Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, and Lance Lynn all come to mind.
Sale didn’t really come up through the minor leagues at all. being a reliever was the fastest way to get him to Chicago. Samardzija was a minor league starter. Lynn as well.
If a major league team determines a guy is a reliever very early on in a players minor league career it’s almost impossible that he is going to start. He’s going to be developed throwing 2 pitches for the most part. It makes sense that the failed starters who don’t develop that 3rd pitch end up in the pen. Very hard for a reliever who was groomed with only two pitches to learn a 3rd and possibly 4th. As opposed to a minor league starter who had 3-4+ pitches and decided to drop one or two of them and go to the pen.
Gsellman was a starter through the minors and his first year and a half or so in the bigs. Lugo was mostly a starter in the minors and for his first year in the bigs. I’m not sure what point you’re making.
Jacob degrom himself…mets brought him up as a reliever..2 met starters got hurt in his 1st week up and he got pushed to become a starter…1 injured met was dillon gee, not sure on the 2nd
Lugo has the stuff to be a starter. Gsellman only has 2 decent pitches. He has the stuff of a reliever.
WHEN HAS GSELLMAN PITCHED WELL OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS? NEVER
When was Gsellman ever worth shouting about? Never.
He was pretty good his first year, but turns out it was just a tease
Someone will fix him after he gets DFA’d in the offseason.
DeGrom,Porcello,Peterson,Lugo and Wacha for this year than
The Mets will have a lot of $$ coming off the books and a new owner so ;
Sign Bauer, Springer and a couple BP guys
Trade Dom Smith and Matz to Boston for Vazquez
2021 rotation ; deGrom,Syn,Bauer,Peterson and Lugo
Nimmo(cf), Springer (Lf), Alonso(1b), Conforto(rf), Davis(3b), Cano(DH), McNeil(2b), Vazquez(C) and Gimemez(ss)
yeah, no, on that trade.
lolMets fan. What horrible trade proposal. I hope the new Mets regime pulls the trigger.
Or, sign JT Realmuto to a 5 year deal.
If theyre going to trade Smith it should be for pitching help.
White Sox would be a good fit. They could use a left handed DH bat and have pitching near mlb. They’d probably be inclined to deal Crochett for an immediate cheap mlb bat like Smith in the off season.
Please. Don’t. Trade. Dom. Smith. Please.
Wow that’s a HUGE overpay for Vasquez. I’d rather sign realmuto than give up dom
If the Mets sign springer he’s playing CF. Point of getting a CFer is to move Nimmo out and to a corner.
Wonder what it would take to get merrifield so HE can play Cf
Wait… your trading Dom Smith for what?
He’s only a P/T player for us and the Mets Need a Catcher unless they can sign Realmuto. For Vazquez need to trade them something of value. Dom Smith would kill it in Boston with the short right field there and the yanks short right field Dom would hit prob 40 hrs.
Thats absolutely insane. They can find a catcher as good as Vasquez without trading away a rising star who is one of the best hitters in the game right now. Smith is waaaay more valuable than Vasquez.
The Dodgers have 2 young Catchers in Will Smith and Ruiz, wonder what it will take to get 1 of them.
Smith would probably be cost prohibitive. I dunno how they value Ruiz. Even Barnes would be an improvement for the Mets, though. They should look into either Ruiz or Barnes.
We will give you Ruiz + a 12-18 prospect for Lugo….thats seems like a pretty god deal for both squads
If I’m the Mets I’m all over that. Sold!
I wouldn’t do this if I’m the Dodgers. There is no reason for them to trade either Smith or Ruiz. Period.
Part time player? Hiw is someone who gets one day off every two weeks considered “part time?”
With the DH now in the NL, Dom is starting everyday.
Lugo gets thirty starts next year and he’s a top twenty starter in baseball
lugo is 1 bad throw from tommy john surgery
Heading into 2021, Lugo would be the seventh starter on a good team like the Dodgers.
He would never make a start on the Dodgers –
Multi inn Rp and the Dodgers would do a great job of keeping him fresh in LAD – Something Ny certainly hasnt done- Id love to have Lugo personally
Not for Smith, Ruiz, or any top prospect. To anyone paying attention, Smith is on the verge of becoming the best catcher in the league right now. Realmuto included. Better defensively, walks a ton, and hits in the clutch. And since he can also play the infield, there is plenty of room for him and Ruiz to co-exist. You don’t overpay for a reliever. Andrew Friedman already knows this.
Too late. We already paid for Diaz
The game has gone to the computers. Too many stats for Boras and others to argue for against. A starter should still pitch to win and give up as few runs as possible. Maybe use additional stats to factor in how this year will play into next season but in Porcello’s case a + 5.00 era is only acceptable to eat innings when your already under contract for next year and you’d rather pray for an improvement as compared to just eating the money. Next year he gets a low base with incentives.
Wait, are you saying computers and statistics have tried to dissuade pitchers from trying to give up as few runs as possible?
really want to go for broke. Beg the angels for trout and a starter, send them nido,nimmo,matz,smith and rosario
Tom, I really hope you were joking.
Then add gimenez and diaz….. Who are you giving up for trout….hes the best player in the game ,that is until he becomes a met..
The Mets and Angels are kind of two sides of a different coin. The Angels won’t trade Trout for many of the same reasons the Mets won’t trade deGrom.
Trout is younger, though. In the Mets case, deGrom is worthless as a player on their roster if they don’t make the post-season.
My illustration wasn’t intended to discuss value of each player. Obviously Trout is worth more than deGrom. Not sure what you mean when you say deGrom is worthless if the Mets don’t make the playoffs. Wouldn’t the same be true of Trout?
Trout has a bigger window for winning, at least in theory. Not the case with deGrom, who will be 33 next season. I thought the Mets should have dealt deGrom at the July deadline in 2018, and then traded Syndergaard and Wheeler the following winter. Imagine what the Dodgers might have given for deGrom? Instead, they signed the GM candidate with the win-now mantra instead of a Bloom or Ng who would have revamped the organization.
Back to Trout versus deGrom. Both are being wasted by poorly-run, big-market franchises. If the Yankees and Dodgers can contend regularly, then why can’t the Mets and Angels?
I see what you meant. I don’t know that deGrom is worthless but the point is moot as my example wasn’t about who was worth more but rather a demonstration of how complimentary a situation the teams are in. They both saw themselves as contenders and both might approach the other for the parts they need because they both have what the other needs.
Both are nowhere near being contenders.
Imagine what a team will STILL give for Degrom. He has tons of value on his well below market contract. The going rate for his caliber of pitcher is about 2x what he’s making.
Once Cohen takes over, players will wait to see what they can get from the Mets. Sign stroman (degrom Lugo stroman Peterson), sign realmuto, sign Hendricks Watson and rosenthal, trade for merrifield. With the pieces they have, THAT is a championship team.
If Cohen is as much a baseball fan as we hear he is, he’ll know that splurging on big contracts has never been the way to build a championship team. The Mets need a major shakeup from top-to-bottom. Terrible team.
I watched the Mets-Phillies today as my JV game for Monday. A couple of pitiful teams. Awful defense and fundamentals, yet there are fans of both teams who think they are close to winning something.
The Mets have the pieces to contend. Solid to above average corners OF options, above avg 1B options, I think jd will be fine at 3B and Gimenez at SS with our current options in the rotation (need another starter) and to add to the bullpen, this is a championship team. The core is set with mcniel Nimmo jd alonso dom Gimenez degrom Lugo Peterson. Need to extend Noah and Conforto, sign realmuto, sign a few BP arms to add to Streve Wilson familia and Diaz (Watson Hendricks and rosenthal would be my preference) and add a CFer this team is stacked
The Mets are in no way stacked. Gimenez is the only good defender on the team. Defense matters. That division belongs to Atlanta for the next few years. Comparing cores, the Mets aren’t close to the Braves. Don’t overrate Alonso. Plays one position and stinks at it, the classic slow-moving slugger a la Steve Balboni. If your core includes Alonso, Davis, Lugo, and Peterson, then you have a weak core. You also have deGrom nearing his 33rd birthday. By the time the Mets build a rotation behind him, he will be done. And what makes you think Realmuto will sign with the Mets? It isn’t that easy.
Why is it that MetsFan22 has disappeared for most of the season? Is he going to really make it obvious how much of a fairweather homer he is? Is he going to wait until the Mets are in playoff position to show himself again?
He’s busy revising his early-season post that guaranteed the Mets would sign Betts to the Mets will sign Realmuto and Springer and trade for Lindor. For some reason, he sees Flushing as a destination move for good p[ayers.
I think he’s looking for some excuses for a lot of his early-season comments. He’s already made some. Supposedly the Mets have had worse luck of all the NL East teams…according to him. He couldn’t respond when a few of us called him out on it.
I am still waiting for him to explain how the Marlins are not likely to finish 25 games out of first place and 15 games out of fourth place like he said. Maybe we were lucky to not have it as bad as the Mets. We only lost 2/3rds of our roster for a bulk of the season.
I think his absence speaks volumes about him.
Earlier comments mentioned past pitchers that were rp then tried sp and messing up their career. Wasn’t Danny graves one of those too? I rem him being a stud closer and then they started him and he was never anything special again.
Weirdly, he actually made the all star game as a reliever the year after the one where they tried him as a full-time starter, but yeah, that was weird. He wasn’t even a starter in the minors. The guy had less than ten starts in eight pro seasons, then suddenly they give him a full load as a starter.
Degrom came us as a reliever but the mets lost 2 starters in a week.thats why degrom became a starter….1 was dillon gee,the other i can’t remember
Yankees destroyed Chamberlain & Cadaret when they couldn’t make up their minds how to use them. Chamberlain would eat up the Tigers every time he started against them.