Josh Hader’s name surfaced in trade rumors both at this year’s deadline and last winter, as teams understandably inquired on one of the game’s most prolific strikeout arms. There was never any real indication that the Brewers were in serious trade talks regarding the left-hander, though, and over the weekend, president of baseball operations David Stearns all but confirmed that nothing was ever close. Speaking in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio), Stearns acknowledged that he listened to offers on Hader but chalked it up to due diligence and strongly downplayed the possibility of moving Hader anytime in the near future:
..There are always going to be calls on elite players in the game, and certainly Josh is no different. But we believe he’s a really valuable member of our team and will be going forward. I think there are a couple times of year where you’re going to get that volume of calls: the trade deadline and around the Winter Meetings. Sometimes into Spring Training, the volume of calls picks up. That was certainly the case this deadline, and when you get calls, it’s our obligation to listen and engage and see if something makes sense. With all of that said, as I said before, Josh is a really important member of our team. We’re not looking to move him. We’ve never really looked to move him, and I don’t really anticipate that changing.”
That’s a bit short of former Braves GM John Coppolella’s declaration that he’d sooner give his right arm than trade Freddie Freeman, who remains in Atlanta a half-decade after that comment, but it’s still a notable on-record statement about a disinclination to move the 26-year-old Hader.
There have been plenty of trade rumors surrounding Hader dating back to last offseason, when the Brewers defeated him in arbitration. There was a wide gap between the two sides then, as the Brewers presented $4.1MM and Hader requested $6.4MM. Hader said after the decision came down that arbitration for relievers was “outdated.” That may be true, but considering he’s still scheduled to go through the arb process three more times, the Brewers haven’t felt any urgency to part with Hader so far.
Hader was fresh off his third straight stellar season last winter, of course, but the two-time All-Star hasn’t been as sharp in 2020. Granted, a large portion of the damage Hader has suffered this year came in a four-run, one-inning blowup against the Cubs on Saturday. With that performance factored in, he owns a 4.30 ERA/4.50 FIP with 14.11 K/9 and a career-worst 6.14 BB/9 across 14 2/3 frames this season. Teams still probably won’t be deterred from continuing to try to acquire Hader from the Brewers during the upcoming offseason, but Stearns clearly isn’t in any hurry to give him up.
You should have traded him. Devin Williams is your closer.
I have heard of Devin Williams before, so I went to look up some videos on him, and the only videos I can find are of his changeup. It’s nasty, but does he throw a good fastball? I don’t watch many Brewers games.
Look at his numbers, he’s a freak. Vintage Hader.
Holy crap. Wow, you weren’t lying when you said freak! 0.47 era, with a 1.05 fip, 981 ERA+, and an 18.5 SO/9!!! I need to see this man pitch! Not to mention he has already thrown 19 innings! Dude’s unbelievable. I hope he keeps it up.
Yup.
Look at his percentile rankings on Baseball Savant (baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/devin-william…) It’s bonkers.
A flash in the pan so far , when he does it for a few years well talk . Give me Hader all day any day.
He does. It’s a solid pitch but made much much better because of the change.
Bugs Bunny changeup territory?
There are many that say he has the best changeup in MLB and some that say that has THE BEST PITCH in all of MLB. And he’s a rookie. Thanks to mlb1225 for the link to baseballsavant that illustrates just how impressive his stuff is. A 1-2 of Williams and Hader is a nightmare for hitters, though I’d trade Hader for a small fortune.
Okay, I want to use this post to answer this question: What players get traded in the off-season, and who will be traded for said player? Doesn’t have to be a big name, though it can be.
Adam Frazier. He’s having a typical Adam Frazier year of struggling in the first half, hot in the second half. He’s not great by any means, but he’s very durbale, can play gold glove caliber defense at 2B, and slot into the outfield. Frazier not some fantastic batter, but he’ll give you a solid .270/.330/.420 line, 95-100 OPS+/wRC+ a year. Not bad for a utility guy who has above average defense at multiple positions, and won’t spend any time on the IL.
I have been an odd fan of Adam Frazier for a while, I’d like to see him slot in at 2nd for Texas next season.
BTW, your pirates are ruining my hopes of ever seeing Kumar Rocker in a Rangers uniform lol. Y’all need to start winning some more games! I saw earlier that Josh Bell is starting to come around this past week, along with Frazier, Hayes, and Gonzalez, hopefully they can put up some run support.
I like Rocker, but I’m more interested seeing where Jack Leiter, the other Vandy SP, will be going in the top-10. Leiter is the proverbial Bake to Rocker’s Shake, if familiar with Shake n’ Bake.
I’m truthfully fine with either. Fangraphs ranks Leiter #2, but I feel like it’s more of a 1A to 1B situation.
Amed Rosario
But with relief pitchers they can fall off all of a sudden. Sometimes its better to sell high on a player. Look at how the Mariners fleeced the Mets a few years back
With that move in the back of other gm’s minds, will anybody make a move for a reliever like that anymore? I think Hader has a better track record than Diaz did, so I wonder if that would effect it any.
Diaz was coming off 57 saves and a sub 2 era and had a good year the year before. He had a great track record and was 2 years younger and had more team control at the time. But yea Hader had huge interest from teams like the Dodgers and even Yankees. They would get a kings ransom for him now.
I don’t think they will get a king’s ransom for him. They will try, but I don’t see anyone giving it to them. The Brewers will either keep him it trade him for far less than people want and expect.
I personally think teams giving up a “kings ransom” for any player in general is a thing of the past. Due to the inability for teams to restock farm systems via the draft or the international market rapidly, they hang onto their top tier talent.
Limiting amateur spending and heavy penalties for going over the luxury tax threshold, at least in my opinion, was extremely short sighted.
I don’t think any reliever is worth anything close to what the Brewers want for Hader. I don’t see him being traded because I don’t see anyone giving up multiple top 100 or even top 50 prospects like some people here think he is worth. For a guy who only gives you 50-80 IP per year, it’s just not worth it.
But there is precedent for that type of deal
It doesn’t matter how much he pitches- it matters when he pitches. Going an inning plus 3x a week to keep a lead in tact is WAY more valuable than going 6 once a week.
Theo knew that so he gave up a future star for 2 months of chapman. How did that work out for him ? Check his ring finger….
I don’t think teams make the Chapman trade anymore without a change to the CBA. Prospects are just too valuable.
The Dodgers actually gave up less for Betts and Price than the Cubs gave up for Chapman. Downs is a solid prospect, Verdugo was a solid as well but Torres was a top 10 prospect and they got McKinney who was just outside the top 100 as well as Adam Warren who was a solid reliever at the time.
It’s really going to take a team as desperate for a title as the Cubs were to pull the trigger on that type of deal and even then I think it would be extremely rare. Hader would probably net two top 100 prospects but they are going to be two in the bottom 50 and most likely will have several years of development left.
Never in the history of baseball have prospects been more over valued. Still today most prospects don’t pan out. Why would u ever consider 2 guys who prob will never pan out when your team is good ?? You just keep him and have the most dominant player at his position vs assuming 2 guys who will never come any where close to match his production. And if he signs elsewhere- you get a really good pick.
Asking price is a Gavin Lux type player or u just keep him.
A team like the twins keeps all their prospects til they rot away into nothingness. Hader may have a better war next year than Royce Lewis does in his whole career.
Flip side reds gave up a 25 Prospect at the height of his value for Bauer. Since then trammel’s value has plummeted and Bauer is back to his dominant self. If he doesn’t sign in cincy- reds will get a top pick for him. Great move at a great cost and even over a 60 game season Bauer May have a higher 1 season war than trammel over his whole career
It’s a double edge sword, sure you talk about trading away two guys that never pan out but do you not think the White Sox would love to have Tatis back? How about the Cubs and Jimmenz and Cease?
The Reds are not going to get anything for Bauer when he leaves via free agency. Manfred suspending the qualifying offer for free agents next season. Since it doesn’t appear the Reds will make the playoffs this season, the basically gave up a handful of prospects for what exactly?
Verdugo solid as well? He was a top 20 prospect
The breakdown of 1 yr of Mokkie plus bad money isnt a great comparision to Haders 3 cheap yrs left
Yankees got the return they got in the Chapman trade because Theo was willing to pay any price to attempt to break the famous 108 year old drought, Cashman knew that and was able to not only extract Torres which is already a overpay but 3 others as well.
I don’t think Yankees get what they got otherwise.
Prices have changed. Great free agents cost $25-$40 million per year now and have guaranteed 10 year contracts. A team can only afford 1-3. MAYBE 4. The rest of your team? Prospects. Guys who are cheap and have 7 years of control.
The Padres obviously went all-in at the trade deadline this year. Bot, you said it would cost a Gavin Lux type player to get Hader? The Padres were desperate for relief pitching this year. Do you think they ever considered a Gore for Hader deal? They didn’t. They got CLEVINGER without giving up a top 100 prospect! I think anyone would much, much rather have Clevinger than Hader. You might want to lower your expectations.
Hader isn’t worth anything close to a top 25 prospect. But I don’t see why he can’t bring back like a top 100-50 range guy. Like Keibert Ruiz+another top 30 organizational prospect.
It would take a LOT more than Ruiz and a top 30 – A LOT more
Blame the stupid Chapman trade for the Brewers ridiculous asking price.
Do we know what the Brewers’ asking price was?
“More than that.”
For whatever was offered.
A roster move that wins the first World Series for a team in over a century, a win that almost certainly would not have happened without that roster move, is prima facia a good roster move.
You can think that the Chapman trade was a good move for the Cubs since it got them a ring, but also think that they paid an arm and a leg to get him. They’re not mutually exclusive.
Cubs got a championship and Yankees get 6+ years of a cost controlled stud in Torres. It was a win-win.
As a Mets fan. Trust me. Don’t trade for RP. Hardest position to predict
I don’t know what’s specifically Mets about getting burned trading for relievers. Everybody’s been down that dark path.
There’s trading for a RP, then there’s trading for a RP and giving up multiple top prospects AND taking on a horrible contract for said RP.
Since we’re kinda talking about Stern , I think he has done a great job so far but he has missed on the Dukes, Kotsays, Hawkins, and McGehee type players. We made a mistake on Dylan Moore .
What’s more important than holding onto a lead on a playoff game ??
There will be several teams wishing they paid that price come playoffs. Prospect value is ridiculously high compared to the value you get w proven Mlb talent. And few are as accomplished as hader.
Dodgers will prob top that list of should haves. Lux for hader should have been a no brainer for dodgers.
Tell Hader at the end of the season to get ready to be a starter and not a reliever in 2021. Since the Brewers are going to sprinkle money around positions they don’t need like last offseason, use the weapons you have at your disposal. Make Hader a starter and if he flourishes you have a nice 3-headed monster with Burnes and Woodruff.
Hader has two pitches and that’s when his slider is working. Also take into account that he’s been overused because Srearns refuses to get a starter, and you have one horrible idea here.
What makes you think Hader could start?
His stuff is nasty? If he has just an average 3rd pitch he can automatically be the #3 in the Brewers rotation at the very least. The guy has ace stuff and he’s been wasted in the bullpen. Guy started in the minors and probably can if you give him an offseason to prepare. His stuff is electric and the Brewers aren’t acquiring a stud nor will they find one in-house other than Hader.
That’s going to messed Hader up.
From the outside looking in, Hader looked effected as a starting pitcher in the minors. The problem is his control has always been questionable. He also averaged 7 hits and 4 free passes per 9.
His walks have been a serious issue as of late (6 per 9) which makes you question wether or not he can keep it together as a starter. The more times a hitter faces a batter, the more exposed he becomes, guys this season are swinging less and making more contact inside the zone than previously. Hader may continue being a dominate reliever, he also could end up being a Carlos Marmol type where guys simply start spitting on his slider.
Lastly, developing an average third pitch is harder than one might think. If it was easy, everyone would have 7 pitches like Darvish.
Control has improved for one. Second, Milwaukee does not have the depth, cash or desire to net impact pitchers. Why anyone is reluctant to make the one of the nastiest lefty arms in baseball, who came up as a starter, is baffling. Nobody has given a good reason why he would not be better than the 5th arm in the rotation on his team. Or the 4th. Or the 3rd.
Hader was literally unhittable the first month plus of the season. I don’t think we can say he’s “not been as sharp this year” because outside of Saturday’s blow-up, he annihilated hitters all year. 12 straight HITless outings. Not scoreless. Hitless.
It was literally only one appearance that made his ERA skyrocket. He’d been having the best stretch of his career before that.
I really liked what the Cubs did against Hader a couple days ago, Javy, on the extremely rare occasion he decides to shorten his swing and simply make contact, is a great match up because of his bat speed and ability to go the other way. Then go lefty lefty against Hader to keep him off balance a little bit. It’s hard for a guy like Hader who doesn’t have that pin point accuracy to face a guy like Rizzo who crowds. Kind of takes him out of his comfort zone regardless of wether or not he gets the out.
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