The future is here in Detroit. The Tigers announced this morning that the organization will promote top prospects Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Isaac Paredes this week. The left-handed Skubal is slated to start Tuesday’s game, while the right-handed Mize will take the ball Wednesday. Paredes will take the spot of fellow infielder Dawel Lugo, who is being designated for assignment.
It’s an aggressive play by a Tigers club that has dropped five consecutive games to fall under .500 (9-10) after a surprising start to the season. Skubal and Mize will make their MLB debuts in key starts against the division-rival White Sox, who have overtaken the Tigers in the standings. Detroit is currently in fourth place — but still just 3.5 games back of the AL Central-leading Twins.
In Mize, the Tigers will get their first look at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft. The former Auburn ace is considered one of the five best pitching prospects in baseball by most accounts, and his results in 2019 — his only full pro season to date — underscore just why he’s so highly regarded. The 6’3″, 220-pound Mize tossed 109 1/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last year, pitching to a combined 2.55 ERA with a 106-to-23 K/BB ratio. Those numbers include a no-hitter in his debut effort at the Double-A level.
Mize, 23, is currently ranked as the No. 8 prospect in the game on MLB.com’s summer update. Baseball America and FanGraphs have him ranked 14th on their own summer lists — the same slot at which Kiley McDaniel placed Mize in his preseason rankings for ESPN. Mize draws praise for a mid-90s heater that he can run up to 97 mph, but his splitter is the pitch that generates the most love from scouts. MLB.com’s report on him places a 70-grade on the pitch (on the 20-80 scale). Mize’s slider and cutter are both considered above-average offering as well.
Skubal was drafted eight rounds later in the same draft that the Tigers selected Mize, and his ascension should be considered a feather in the cap of the Tigers’ scouting and player development teams. Also 23, Skubal himself is widely considered to be a Top 100 prospect. Those same publications list him 35th (Baseball America), 50th (MLB.com), 54th (FanGraphs) and 79th (ESPN) on their rankings, and The Athletic’s Keith Law pegged him as high as No. 24 prior to the season.
Just as Mize did, Skubal split last season between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The 23-year-old racked up 122 2/3 innings with an outrageous 179-to-37 K/BB ratio — including a whopping 82 strikeouts in 42 1/3 frames at the Double-A level. Skubal can run his heater up to 97 mph as well, and while he doesn’t have a pitch as highly regarded as Mize’s splitter, his curveball is still said to be a plus offering accompanied by an average-or-better slider and changeup.
Not to be lost in the shuffle, the 21-year-old Paredes was a Top 100 farmhand himself at Baseball America in each of the past two offseasons (though he dropped off their list following the addition of this summer’s top draftees). He played the 2019 season at 20 years old and was one of the youngest players in the pitcher-friendly Double-A Eastern League. However, Paredes still turned in a healthy .282/.368/.416 slash (133 wRC+). Bat-to-ball skills are Paredes’ best asset, as evidenced by the fact that against much older competition, he walked nearly as many times (57) as he struck out (61).
With C.J. Cron out for the year, Jeimer Candelario has slid over to first base. That should clear a path to regular reps at the hot corner for Paredes, which is where he spent the bulk of the 2019 season playing. Paredes, acquired alongside Candelario in the trade that sent Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Cubs, played shortstop for much of his early career in the minors, so he could see some time there as well if Niko Goodrum needs a day off. Alternatively, the club could opt to give Paredes and Willi Castro regular time on the left side of the infield, with Goodrum returning to the super-sub role in which he found success over the past couple seasons.
The timing of the promotions is of some note as well. Holding the trio down for even the first week of the season bought the Tigers an extra year of team control, and each of Mize, Skubal and Paredes has now been down long enough that they could fall shy of Super Two status as well. Paredes’ promotion is the only move that is official as of today. Skubal and Mize will have their contracts selected on the day of their respective starts.
If Paredes sticks in the big leagues from this point on, he’ll finish out the year with 116 days of service, which could still leave him on the fringe Super Two status. Skubal would only accrue 113 days of service, though, and Mize would log just 110. Both of those marks should leave them on the outside looking in with regard to Super Two status.
The 25-year-old Lugo,meanwhile, is could be on his way out the door in the Detroit organization. Acquired from the Diamondbacks in the trade that sent J.D. Martinez to Arizona, Lugo simply hasn’t found his footing at the MLB level. He’s received an even 400 plate appearances in parts of three seasons and saw semi-regular action last year (288 plate appearances), but Lugo has produced only a .236/.270/.358 output in that time. He’s out of minor league options, so it’s possible he’ll clear waivers given that another club would have to carry him on its MLB roster. Then again, Lugo was once a solidly regarded prospect and has the ability to play both second base and third base, so another club could take a speculative look on waivers.
The Tigers have a week to either trade Lugo, release him, or pass him through outright waivers.
wow all at once
They’re in the hunt for a postseason spot. Good to see a team try to position themselves for a run by putting their best prospects on the field instead of focusing only on service time.
The Super 2 deadline (based off last year’s mark) passes today. Should be a lot more top prospects coming up this week.
Cool that all of their top prospects get called up at once! Can’t wait to see what they can do!
All? No. Matt Manning waiting in the wings still. Manning is higher rated than Skubal.
Umm did you really think I literally meant all of them. It was a slight exaggeration
Manning will be better than Mize
I think all three of them have the chance to be something special, and I wouldn’t quibble over which minor leaguer will turn out better than another. It’s a crapshoot. If two of them work out, the Tigers will be contenders in a couple years (with help from their other prospects). If all three work out, there might be a World Series in their future.
Agreed
I think it is weird than Manning was passed up for Skubal, especially since Manning had better numbers than Mize at AA last year despite being a year younger.
Skubal was the talk of minor league scouts across baseball for his dominating performance across 4-5 teams and minor league levels last year..He continued his impressive performance in Spring Training..No matter where they are drafted, the clock resets once they get in the system and it is who performs best..
I have not been impressed with Manning. From the spring training to summer camp to his future games appearances. He is good for sure. But seems to lack the elite pitch to put hitters away. Hope I am wrong. Go Tigers.
Agreed but hope we’re wrong. It feels like his delivery doesn’t set up much for deception on that big fastball. Reminds me of Trent Thornton a lot, and that’s not a good thing. Hope we’re wrong though.
Yeah all those Ks show someone who can’t put guys away. You see Thornton, but I see Verlander. Obviously, I don’t expect Verlander. That would be dumb, but the stuff, build, delivery is very similar. If he can be 75% of Verlander, that would be amazing.
Probably will be somewhere in between
tigerfan4ever… Torkelson is the highest ranked Tiger. How could you forget him?
If their can’t miss pitching prospects are like the Braves, they are in trouble. So many were suppose to be elite, yet only a couple have turned into that. It seems like all the other teams have just a couple good pitching prospects that turn into great pitchers… Braves on the other hand had an absolutely abundance of top shelf pitching prospects over the years and 2 have panned out so far… riddle me that
Sounds like you’re used to inflating the value of anyone in Atlanta’s system.
How long have you been a baseball fan? It’s almost like you are just finding out that the majority of prospects do not reach the expectations placed on them.
“So many were supposed to be elite.” I hate to eco previous statement but it sounds like your expectations were the problem. It’s the fans that start placing these labels and expectations. Nobody promised the Braves a repeat of Maddux, Glavine Smoltz. You should probably be very happy that the Braves have developed who will there 1 and 2 starters ( Soroka & Fried) for a long time to come.
Not sure why you even brought up the 3 HOF’ers. Only Glavine was drafted by Atl. Maddux was a FA,signing the yr after he won his 1st CY YOUNG. Smoltz was acquired from Det for Doyle Alexander, during the Tigers race to the pennant.
Was my post your excuse to build yourself a stage to speak from? I was making a generalization about a coming Braves rotation.
Braves have a very impressive stable of young pitching prospects that are just starting to show things at the MLB level. Soroka got hurt along with a few others
What pitching prospect for the braves was supposed to be elite? Wright, Touki, and Folty were all fringe top 100 guys when they were called up. Even Soroka was only expected to be a 2. Going back Jair Jurgens, he was never considered an elite prospect. The only pitching prospect that was expected be elite was Tommy Hanson years ago and he had injuries that held him back. You need to stop thinking that top prospect equals elite. Most teams top prospects are only expected to be average everyday players.
Anderson and Wright not count? Both have cracked the Top 35 overall prospect lists over the last year or two, depending on the list you prefer. Not reaching Mize/Manning levels but still not bad.
Top 35 isn’t elite. Elite means 60 grade or higher. No Braves pitcher has gotten that other than Soroka and that was only on some lists
Does Skubal throw a screwball?
He play a lot of Skee ball.
plays
Ruined*
This is exciting! You hardly ever see calling up multiple top prospects. Tigers are closer to competing then most people think
@Losbravos69, 2023 at the earliest.
That is closer than what I would have said, so technically correct!
I could see that. They still need some more pieces, but that rotation, at least the front-end, could be scary good. I say this as a White Sox fan.
Right, b/c prospects always pan out.
All at once… is just a nice way of saying “service time manipulation”
so? why start them in the Majors this year anyway with no AAA experience?
If they wanted to totally manipulate service time, you’d see them in 2021, not now.
At worst, they become Super 2’s and get an extra year of arbitration but bringing them up now has no impact on when they become free agents. They still have a full 6 seasons after this one for both.
Unless they wait until a few weeks into next year… which is logical considering this season has an asterisk.
so? theyre not expecting them to contend anyway. oh, and the asterisk is an opinion until its officially applied, which it wolnt be. the winner is the winner.
Finallyyyyyyy
I smell a pennant!
What you smell might be stuck to the bottom of your shoe!
I smell something, Dan.
sigh…Manning is the one I wanted to see most.
Yeah, but can he be elite?
😉 Habits are hard to break.
Habits? his AA numbers were better than Mize’s.
It’s a football joke. His name is Manning….nevermind.
I was surprised to see that Mize averaged less than 9K’s per 9 innings in the minors. Looks like he’ll be more of a control pitcher than strikeout pitcher. Skubal on the other hand has a nasty K/9 average. It’s going to be exciting to see what these kids can do. Manning shouldn’t be too far behind them.
I get the appeal of K’s, but they’re not necessary to be elite. I’m not by any means saying Mize is going to be as good as Greg Maddux, but Maddux had a career K/9 of 6.1. He struck 200 batters in a season just once. He won four straight CYA’s and finished in the top 5 another 5 times because he had elite control. (I’ll grant that the umpires seemed to help him out from time to time, but the point still stands.) Mize doesn’t have to rack up the K’s to be the best pitcher on that team, no matter how many Skubal strikes out.
The favorable calls Maddux got was actually a result of his command and control. Because of how consistent he was, he got the benefit of the doubt more than most pitchers. So those calls that were borderline or even slightly off the plate that might have gone either way usually went Maddux way.
I saw more than a couple calls that seemed just blown. 3 inches outside and still a strike. I agree that he got those calls because he was known for his pinpoint control, but that doesn’t mean they should have been strikes.
Mize last year was focusing on using his new slurve/slider pitch. It is his 4th pitch, so the lack of strikeouts may be due to not pitching to his splitter and cutter combo.
Hoooly crap! Good on them!
Detroit has guys right now who are just ballin’, and if they can somehow find a prospect or two that can compete right now to go along with it, that’ll be great. Maybe a Brady Singer situation?
Good for the Tigers! Hopefully this will be just the thing Detroit needs to contend and begin a new era.
Big props. I understand the service time crap but it is nice to see them putting the best on the field. This is how it should be!
Just a couple of days ago, Al Avila was throwing cold water on just bringing up Mize and now he’s promoting three all at once. You have to wonder what was going on behind the scenes.
It’s the right move though. Keeping Mize and Skubal in Toledo was just a waste of time.
to be fair GMs do this all the time. sometimes its gamesmanship. especially in an era where you aren’t getting increased ticket sales for guys debuting (because no one’s selling any tickets) it really doesn’t benefit anyone to make these things public.
“The timing of the promotions is of some note as well. Holding the trio down for even the first week of the season bought the Tigers an extra year of team control, and each of Mize, Skubal and Paredes has now been down long enough that they could fall shy of Super Two status as well.” And that would have been the case next year had we started them in Toledo. Gained an extra year of service time on them again. All this does is placate the masses and narrows the contending window we have by a year, especially since most of the players that would team with these guys are NOT getting developed this year. Skubal and Mize will leave for greener pa$ture$ after 2026 when the Tigers are on the cusp of greatness and Ilitch uses the excuse that he cannot afford them to let them walk, and Tiger fans continue to wait for a title that never comes.
Plus, very likely they are NOT ready for this. Despite the hype train, none of these three have had extended success at AAA.
It’s nice not to be the only Tigers fan with doubts about this move – even more so since neither Mize nor Skubal is projected to pitch in quality Start-range this year. But don’t forget that they could still be optioned to an actual AAA season later, which would halt the service time.
Gruß,
BSHH
I think the Tigers will be (at least should be) better than “on the cusp of greatness” before 2026. I think Mize and Skubal both have a learning year this year, with starts where they’re dominant and starts where they get knocked around and can’t seem to fool top hitters. But next year, I think they improve and in 2022, they could be very good pitchers. Manning should be up by then, too. That rotation would still need to be filled out on the back end, and the offense needs some upgrades, but the Indians are proof that a strong rotation and mediocre offense can still be enough to contend for the division.
By then, I’m guessing the Twins will have lost people to FA / retirement and the White Sox will likely be at the top of the AL Central. Even though I’m a White Sox fan, any of Mize, Skubal, or Manning could eventually become better than Giolito. Kopech’s ceiling is as high as any of theirs, but only if he can learn some control. The Tigers’ front-end of the rotation is going be very good in just a few years.
Complete agree, TD, with both you and BSHH, and FWIW I appreciated your stance on the topic on BYB earlier. Many of the same folks who were clamoring for the call-ups will be complaining when we lose these same players to free agency a year early.
I understand the desire to unwrap the shiny new toys, especially after so many years of losing, but the team isn’t ready to seriously compete yet, and probably won’t be for two more years.
Part of me wonders if Avila recognizes that Mize’s shoulder is potentially a ticking time bomb, and so maybe he’s showcasing him for a trade for a true blue-chip bat at a position of need. That’s a real longshot, of course, as those sorts of deals almost never occur, but a rotation of Manning/Turnbull/Skubal/Wentz/Perez/Fulmer/Norris/Boyd etc etc is still plenty formidable. Therefore why not hedge against the risk of injury to Mize and flip him for a bat of equal value?
Regardless, I’m hoping the FO gets creative and tries to extend guys like Greene or Torkelson or Manning early, to try to keep the window open for as long as possible.
I’m a Indians fan but I hunk this is a great move Especially Casey You need to see what they can do since there’s no minor league season
Would have waited until June 2021. Injuries to a big chunk of the The Tigers rotation forced their hand… However, with the Tigers farm system now rated in the top 5 in MLB,
this is only the “first wave” of top Tigers prospects promoted…The Tigers will be promoting more waves of top prospects in ’21, ’22, ”23…for their next run of contention.
It will be interesting to see what happens when Boyd, Turnbull, Mize, Skubal, Fulmer are all clicking and all firing on 8 cylinders..
If Paredes and others hit, then, with expanded Wild Cards, the Tigers have a shot at a Wild Card this year…
Matt Manning and Joey Wentz are also interesting future rotation pieces along with others….Wentz was acquired from the Braves in the Shane Greene deal..and is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery..
What is your career projection for Skubal?
Compare to another lefty…
Dunno. He was a “sleeper” because he missed a year of play in college and fell down the board in the Draft… Scouts around the league were raving about his dominating minor league performance across 3 levels last year. He is the roommate of Casey Mize. Skubal is maybe a #2 or #3 behind Mize…(on teams with less pitching depth, Skubal could be a #1….But, Casey Mize is better…baseballamerica.com/players/90182/tarik-skubal/
Rating Mize, Manning and Skubal,
Tarik Skubal an unknown a year ago , but his 13.1 K/9 rate in 2019 rated tops of the Tigers top 3 pitching prospects… Skubal’s 17.4 K/9 in nine starts after moving up to Double-A was impressive.. Skubal has a mid 90’s fastball and two plus breaking balls and ability to command the strike zone, and of the three ,Skubal was most impressive in spring training and looked like he was ready for MLB action at that time.
Clayton Kershaw. Eerily similar, you’ll see Tuesday.
I was wondering about a Kershaw comparison. I’ve read reports on Skubal and have seen videos but am not typically one to make comparisons so I was curious about what others thought.
Skubal is a funky lefty with a mid 90s fastball, a power slider, and a sweeping curve. He had a lot of crazy high K numbers in the minors, but keep in mind, he was a college pitcher going up against a lot of 20-21 year olds.
A Kershaw comp is not a very good one in my opinion. The only thing they have in common is being left handed and good. Early David Price is my personal comp, but we’ll find out real soon. Similar simple footwork in the delivery, uses his length to create deception, works laterally to get chases.
Kershaw is a future Hall of Famer. I wouldn’t put that pressure on any young pitcher…If he can pitch like Spencer Turnbull has pitched so far this year, then. the Tigers will be happy
lol at comparing him to Kershaw. He hasn’t played a game above AA and you’re comparing him to arguably the best regular-season pitcher of this generation? That’s like people taking Eloy seriously when he said Luis Robert was the next Mike Trout before he’d played a single game. Comparisons like that, even in the incredibly remote chance they eventually come true, are ludicrously premature at this point.
Skubal has a lot of talent, but not a long track record. I think he eventually slots in as their number 3, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he came back to earth. In 2016 – 2017, the White Sox had Alec Hansen ascend to the top-ranked pitching prospect on the team. In 2018, the wheels fell off and in 2019, he went back to Advanced A, got promoted quickly, then got beat up in AA. Skubal is probably a better talent, but guys have been #1 overall picks and never made it. If I were a Tigers fan, I’d be hopeful he continues, but that optimism would be full of caution and qualifications.
Bear with me here … because I obviously don’t think Skubal will have the same caliber of career as this guy … but in terms of pure stuff – power fastball + power slider – and with his being a lefty … a see a bit of a Steve Carlton comp.
Again, I’m not at all saying that he’s going to be a 4x Cy Young winner or a HOF – certainly not; it would be silly to think that – but in terms of stuff and repertoire I think it’s a decent comp.
What happened to Manning? He no longer good?
Tigers also have Franklin Perez who came over from the Astros as part of the Verlander deal.
When Perez is healthy, he can pitch with any of the other young Tigers pitching prospects….
If these guys pan out, the Tigers starting staff will be as good or better than the Indians staff..
except he just cant. i dont know if Perez is even a starting candidate at this point. he could be lightning out of the pen though.
No speculation of who Mize and Skubal are going to replace?
@not alkaline
Does it matter? They are already the 2 best in that rotation and neither have thrown a MLB pitch yet.
Novoa is injured. The 5th spot in the rotation has been Ronnie Garcia. I’m guessing it will be those 2 spots in the rotation, and that Burroughs and Funkhowser get sent down.
Best hopes for Tigers fans. You guys have put up with some pretty bad teams the last few years. Mize is pretty much carrying the flag for the Tigers rebuild.
I’m looking forward to watching them against the Sox. Of course, I might regret saying that once the series is over. Even though it’s a division rival, it’s fun to see blue-chip prospects come up to play–especially 2 at the same time. They must really want a playoff spot this year. You can’t accuse the Tigers of tanking this year.
The A.L. Central could be a loaded division within the next few years.
The future is bright in the AL Central! CHW have a great collection of ML-ready bats, and the rotation could be scary with Giolito/Koepech/Crochet/Cease/Lopez. The Royals are stockpiling arms in Lacy/Singer/Kowar/Lynch/Bubic, and Cleveland has a ton of high-upside middle infield talent. MIN has a couple of nice farm pieces in Lewis/Kirillof/Larnach/Duran/Balazovic/Sabato, and like CLE always finds ways to innovate through scouting and player development. Lots to look forward to!
Hopefully Boyd will come around. Hopefully Fulmer is just rusty. Turnbull might be O.K. Norris maybe to pen long relief.
I’ve been wanting to see Mize pitch in the bigs for a while now. I’m not really phased by Skubal; I think he’ll be good in a couple years, but he doesn’t seem as finished as Mize does. Don’t get me wrong; I hope the Sox shell both of them as well as they did Roel Ramirez, but I am happy that the Tigers’ time in a rebuild is starting to come to a close.
Super excited for Tigers fans!
I spend some time in the U.P. every year. Truly great baseball fans in Michigan, man.
Nice to see them pulling the trigger here and trying to remain relevant. Sincerely hoping it works out for them. Great historical organization. Baseball is better with a good Tiger’s team, man.
I expect Tiger pitchers to win 3 or 4 Cy Youngs before this decade is out. Don’t be fooled. Manning might be the most overpowering of the group.
I’m keeping my expectations restrained, especially after watching Oakland’s young starters constantly get injured. Health is the main factor with any pitcher. The Tigers have gone a while with their homegrowns staying healthy. They have some exciting talent coming up, and the bullpen has been a pleasant surprise. Just need a little offense! Losing Cron hurts.
It does kind of suck that all 3 couldn’t debut together but the fact that you’ll have a LH and a RH to follow up was most likely the reasoning rather then Skubal being “more ready”. But its nice to see these guys called up to see not only what they have against big league hitters but also what they need to work on in the upcoming off season. I highly doubt the Tigers are bringing them up to make a run at the playoffs. I mean that’d be great if we did make the post season but being this 60 game sprint of a year, this is a perfect opportunity to see what we have in these guys. Matt Manning will be making his debut at some point soon, I would bet the house on it. All 3 of them are not going to get any better playing pickup games in Toledo, and the service time thing has passed so it’s time. Excited as hell to see what we got in Parades too! He has hit everywhere he’s been, and doing so being one of the youngest players in that particular league! Hope he comes up and rakes, because Lugo is gone and 3rd base can be all his if he performs. Gonna be an awesome week in Detroit!
This is idiotic!
Al Avila strikes again!!
Wasting a minute of service time on this godforsaken season makes no sense when you consider the long term outlook of the team.
Avila is putting his career’s survival ahead of the team’s future.
Time to go, Al.
When the prospects are ready, you call them up and play them. If they show they aren’t ready, you send them down. They are not being called up to sit on the bench. That would be the mistake. Some players take a few years to develop. Some produce right away. To pretend you know when the window will open better than those who are there, is rather foolish.
I must say I didn’t look at this as a negative until taking some time and reading these posts. I still am excited to see what we have in Mize and Skubal but it really would make more sense to wait until next year and see what they could do at AAA Toledo for a quarter season. And I’m DEFINITELY in agreement when it comes to Al Avila and his completely lackluster ineptitude when it comes to being a GM. Good points made the last 10-15 comments or so.
Teams like the Cubs and Astros manipulated control of their players and the club benefited. Guys like Bryant and Springer were kept down so the team could contend for the entire tenure with the team before they hit free agency. Springer will be a free agent at age 31 What team is going to invest huge money on a 31 year old? Bryant will be 30 when he hits free agency.
im always cautious about promoting guys from below the AAA level simply because it seems guys pushed too fast who look out of place in the Majors have a tendancy to have issues recovering going forward. Mize and Skubal especially would concern me given both have injury histories. i can see both succeeding right away though, and its very possible they looked good enough in the alternate site games to be up. personally i feel they should be up by the end of the season regardless though. waiting until 2021 may get you an extra year of control, but languishing in action against competition they are destroying may have a negative affect on their development as well.
Al Avila and the Tigers’ hands were forced on these promotions..by injuries and Covid 19… .
The ..Best case scenario would have the Tigers waiting until June 2021 for these promotions to maximize service time… That Tigers plan was derailed by various things beyond the Tigers control., .Injuries to Nova and Zimmerman hurt the Tigers rotation…And, Norris was on Covid 19 lockdown and not stretched out enough to start…Michael Fulmer (coming back from tommy john and knee surgeries) was on an
opener’s 3 inning limit on starts. So, Norris was Fulmer’s tag team partner on starting days… Boyd was off to a slow start.
Tigers Rotation was down to 1) Boyd, 2) Turnbull 3) ?? 4) ?? 5) Fulmer/Norris
And 1B Cron got hurt that hurt the Tigers offense and left a hole at 3B
Promoting Skubal, Mize and Paredes was a “no brainer” since AAA and AA teams were not playing and the rest of the Tigers minor league depth had been sent home….