So … it’s early. Then again, we’re also already a sixth of the way through the season (for some teams, anyway). When it comes to assessing next year’s free agent crop, teams won’t have the luxury of watching a full season of repeat testing.
That being said, we’re not going to fall into the trap of hyping up early performances. Even a 60-game test is only so significant. Teams will be weighing past track record along with determinations of present skill.
All of this creates a perfect storm for a player who could end up being the most interesting potential free agent: Nick Castellanos of the Reds. He only donned the uniform for regular season action for the first time a couple of weeks ago, but it’s already time for the still-youthful slugger to ponder the future.
What’s fascinating in this case is the combination of intriguing factors at play. Agent Scott Boras negotiated a pair of opt out opportunities into the Castellanos deal, allowing him to exit after 2020 or 2021. At 28 years of age, the outfielder still has a good bit of prime left to market.
On the other side is the swirling economic uncertainty. We know Mookie Betts still got a huge deal, but he could be a special case and he surely could’ve commanded more in “normal” times. It’s anyone’s guess how the season will play out, how 2021 will shape up, and how MLB owners will spend. Oh, and let’s not forget the other looming threat: labor unrest.
You can be sure that Boras is aware of all of these things. He’s always ready to go to battle. Castellanos is no shrinking violet either.
That’s why it’s so notable that Castellanos is mashing early on, with a league-leading five home runs and ridiculous .912 slugging percentage through ten games. He’s leading baseball (minimum 20 plate appearances) with a 261 wRC+ and has left Statcast agog at the contact quality. Lest we forget, Castellanos also turned in a monster second half in 2019. It doesn’t take a Boras-sized imagination to envision the narrative potential. If Castellanos ends up with huge numbers in a truncated 2020, Boras will be primed to argue that his client has been among the very best hitters in baseball over his past 162 games.
This could yet play out in so many different ways. Castellanos could fizzle, or just step back into his typically very productive levels of output. But you can see the potential for a unique bonanza even in spite of the broader uncertainty. The Reds might feel compelled to do what it takes to keep him around if he helps lead a magical season. The market will not feature Betts since he’s locked in with the Dodgers. George Springer remains, but hasn’t been knocking the socks off the ball early. It is fair to note that Marcell Ozuna has also been hot, right along with Castellanos, but there’s room for multiple corner outfielders to earn.
The biggest remaining wild card? It may be in the collective bargaining. Beyond the potential for a breakdown in negotiations, the next agreement is sure to come with major modifications of incentives that will have to be parsed closely by Boras and other agents.
But that’s not all. The designated hitter role could be absolutely critical to Castellanos’s outlook in a hypothetical return trip to free agency. That’s now in the game, but only for the unique 2020 season. Odds are it’ll be negotiated into the next CBA as a permanent fixture. If that happens, it’d be quite the boon for market interest in Castellanos. Teams would surely feel much more comfortable investing knowing that they could not only limit his exposure to the outfield grass in the early stages of a deal — while improved, Castellanos is still generally lightly regarded with the glove — but shift him into primary DH duties whenever appropriate.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
quite frankly, i didnt think Castellanos was all as good as he was when he signed, but in looking back he actually was posting good numbers even before 2019. hard to see him opting out still but you never know.
If this was a normal season he would definitely opt out if he keeps up this pace and proves he can play defense a bit better. But since the economy will be in the tank and teams probably wont want to offer max value deals, his best bet is to keep this up next season as well and opt out in 2021 as a 29 year old.
With no compensation pick attached, I could see a team like the Giants boosting their rebuild with a guy like him.
Waaaaay too early to be considering this. Remember when Trevor Story was on pace to shatter nearly every offensive record in baseball? He ended up being good, not great.
Much more likely than him continuing at this pace is him repeating last year’s numbers. If he can do that, I don’t think he opts out. If he can repeat his second half from last year, maybe, but it’s still a risk. It might also depend on where the Reds end up in the rankings. If they’re 7 or more games back of the division winner, he might look to go to a winner. If they get to the playoffs, I think there’s a better chance of him staying..
trevor story is arguably the best shortstop in the game, he is more than great at this point.
You need help. He’s not even top 3.
Top 3 in baseball? No, but he definitley is a top 3 shortstop. Among shortstops the past two years, he’s 2nd in wRC+, first in wOBA, first in OPS, and 4th in fWAR. I get that he’s helped by Coors, but his 124 wRC+ is higher than Lindor, Baez, Torres, and 30th in all of baseball.
@mlb1225, “Helped by Coors” is a bit of an understatement. For his career, his OPS at home is 1.002; on the road, it’s just .762. His power, especially, takes a nose dive away from Coors, with his SLG down over 180 points for away games. He has great defense and he’s still a solid hitter, but I don’t think he’s as good as Lindor or Baez.
OPS+ and wRC+ are both weighed for things such as Coors
OPS+/wRC+ the last two years
Story: 122/124
Lindor: 125/123
Baez: 122/123
Now yes, his OPS is much higher than all three. He has a .914 OPS and Baez and Lindor have a .865 and .863 OPS. But he’s just as good as them overall. Both OPS+ and wRC+, park adjusted stats, put him on par with the other two.
I’d argue top 5 Bc I’d say lindor, Baez, and I like Correa more
He has a higher wRC+, OPS, wOBA, and fWAR than all four of them, especially Correa. How can you say that he’s behind them if he outranks them in multiple different catergoies? Plus we’re all forgetting about Xander Bogarets. Even though he might not be a great defensive shortstop, it’s easily Bogarets, Story and Lindor with Story and Boggy being interchangeable.
I was referring to that year, though I can see how it’s my fault for not being clear enough. I disagree with him being the top SS in the game, though, even with a hot start this year.
And my original point still stands. A hot start for Castellanos is just that: a start. Let’s get 40 games in or more before we start talking about whether he’s been good enough to chase more money elsewhere. (Not that it’s our decision anyway.)
He’s hit .293/.355/.561 with 72 home runs and 50 stolen bags the past two years. Sure he might be helped out by Coors a bit, but his 124 wRC+ is still higher than Lindor, and Baez. I’d consider a guy who has a wRC+ higher than those two, fantastic defense, and base running as a great player.
Exactly. In my mind its Lindor and Story, and then everyone else. Not top 3? Name 3 SS better than him.
To make a statement that Story is “good but not great”, to me, you lose credibility immediately. Flatly inaccurate. He is a great player as long as he remains in Colorado. Numbers show that. That person needs to quantify that statement, same with the “you need help” comment. Unwarranted response, but that’s how some people feel they need to act. We’re just trying to talk baseball, no reason to be a…
As far as top 3, I think an argument can be made, but I also think that Tatis Jr., Bogaerts and Semien, all could have similar arguments, in addition to Lindor. I would not go with top 3, but I also don’t think it’s a bad argument.
And the case can probably only be made for Story if he remains in Colorado. He’s hit 50 HR’s at Coors, 22 on the road the past two full seasons. He has played 8 more games at home. Numbers seem to show he’s more than a little helped. Average was also about .315 compared to about .268. Then again LeMaheiu’s splits were bad as well, and look at him now.
@SaberSmuckers,
I posted a clarification before you posted this, but I guessed you missed it. I said I was referring to that year. And his numbers did end up being good, but he wasn’t able to even remotely keep up the torrid pace of his first month. Who could?
Odd thing is you seem to make my argument for me on him being good, but not great. While you were typing this, I was typing another comment on how much his splits have been helped by Coors. It’s the same argument I have against Arenado being called a superstar. He’s amazing…so long as he plays half of his games at Coors. The likelihood that if he (and you could use this “he” for either Story or Arenado) moved, he’d be just an above-average hitter with a great glove precludes me from considering them the best at their position.
That’s the point of wRC+. Yea, since 2016, Nolan Areando has hit .303/.372/.575. He’s one of three other batters to have both a .300+ BA and .575+ slugging. The other two being Trout and JD Martinez. On paper, that looks like a top 5 batter in baseball. But he only has a 129 wRC+ and that ranks 30th since 2016, and is just 1% ahead of Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Correa.
Castellanos is a flat out stud hitter. He doesnt get recognized because he has played for bad teams and isnt great defensively but I believe he is one of the best hitters in the game no doubt
He has a great bat. That’s not really the argument. What’s argued is how valuable he is. He wants to play defense, but he gives back half the value his bat provides when he’s out there.
Does anyone really believe universal DH is going anywhere. That and the expanded playoffs will be back in 2021.
I believe the DH is here to stay. I hope you’re wrong on the expanded playoffs. One of the things I’ve always liked about baseball was how hard it was to get into the playoffs. Unlike the NBA or NHL, being a playoff team in baseball is (usually) a real accomplishment.
I agree 100% but it’s all about .
$$$
I actually don’t see his stock rising that significantly. Unless he’s somehow not one of the worst defensive graded outfielders by season’s end, he still makes sense as a full time DH and teams simply don’t throw long term deals at that position. The universal DH could ultimately help his market, but elevated numbers playing at Cincy should be somewhat expected. He took an underappreciated deal to begin with but he’ll really need to flirt with MVP for me to say he’s worth more than he was this past off-season.
I was surprised the Cubbies didn’t keep Nick. The probably would have if they knew they were planning a universal DH
Don’t know about that. They spent all winter lying to their fans about how they didn’t have any money to spend. I don’t think knowing about the DH would have really changed that.
As a lifelong Tiger’s fan who watched this kid come up through the minors, saw him play in Grand Rapids, I can do nothing but cheer for him. Can’t ever remember him being in the news for anything negative. Class act.
Loved watching him develop, too. Why, though, was he never moved to first base. Seems the best position for him. He’s a horrible right fielder.