It isn’t often that a 31st-round draft pick even makes it to the big leagues, let alone enjoys a very successful Major League career. Jake Arrieta, Aaron Judge, Chris Chambliss, Cecil Fielder, Andrew Benintendi, Brad Ziegler, and Hunter Renfroe are some of the most prominent 31st-rounders chosen over the years….except none actually signed after being drafted with these picks, as the selecting teams were taking long-shot fliers to see if they could entice these prospects into starting their pro careers early.
In terms of “proper” 31st-rounders, as in players who actually did sign after being drafted, there are a few notable names in the game today: Brewers reliever Brent Suter, Mariners reliever Matt Magill, and Red Sox catcher Jett Bandy (still in Boston’s organization as a non-roster invitee). Plus, there is the other noteworthy active 31st-rounder, one who is on pace to become the best 31st-round pick in baseball history.
If you will, the Mount Rushmore of 31st-round selections…
- Jay Howell, who posted a 3.34 ERA over 844 2/3 innings from 1980-1994. Howell was a stalwart closer and setup man for many teams, including the 1988 World Series champion Dodgers.
- Pedro Feliciano, who posted a 3.33 ERA over 383 2/3 innings in parts of nine seasons from 2002-13, all with the Mets. At his peak, Feliciano was a workhorse who led the league in appearances each year from 2008-10.
- Travis Hafner, longtime Indians slugger. “Pronk” hit a whopping .273/.376/.498 with 213 homers (132 wRC+, 134 OPS+) over 4782 career plate appearances from 2002-13, with all but 369 of those PA coming in a Cleveland uniform.
And finally, there’s Kevin Kiermaier. Hafner and Kiermaier are easily the most accomplished position players to ever come out of the 31st round, with Hafner holding an edge in career fWAR (22 to 17.5) over the Rays outfielder, though Hafner also has the benefit of 583 more career games. As such, there’s still time for Kiermaier to overtake Hafner as — cue fanfare — The Best 31st-Rounder In Baseball History, which was a wholly unlikely scenario when Tampa Bay selected Kiermaier out of Parkland College in the 2010 draft.
Kiermaier made pretty quick progress through the Rays’ farm system, reaching Triple-A Durham by 2012 (albeit for just a four-game cup of coffee) and then hitting .295/.362/.431 over 571 combined plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2013. That performance earned Kiermaier his first ticket to the majors, in somewhat unusual circumstances. Kiermaier made his MLB debut as a defensive substitute in the ninth inning of in the 163rd game of the Rays’ 2013 season, a tiebreaker with the Rangers to determine a wild card berth. Tampa Bay won that game and then the actual AL Wild Card game over Cleveland, with Kiermaier again making an appearance as a late-game placement.
For a Rays franchise that has long been creative in trying to find roster advantages, using a postseason roster spot on the untested Kiermaier was perfectly logical. After all, who better to serve as a defensive sub than the best defensive player in the organization? (An honor officially conferred on Kiermaier after the 2013 season.) While Kiermaier’s minor league numbers were good if unspectacular, he quickly gained notice due to his glovework, which has continued to be the case throughout his MLB career. He is a three-time Gold Glove winner, as well as the winner of both a Platinum Glove and Fielding Bible Award in 2015.
Since the start of the 2014 season and over 4966 2/3 innings in center field, Kiermaier has 112 Defensive Runs Saved and a 14.8 UZR/150. Among all other players in baseball with at least 4500 innings at a single position, only Andrelton Simmons is ahead of Kiermaier in both stat categories, with Mookie Betts also leading all players in UZR/150. Betts’ excellence has come in right field rather than the more demanding center field position, and while I’m not going to make a claim that the amazing Simmons isn’t anything less than the best defensive player of his era, Simmons did accumulate his 144 DRS with the benefit of more than 2000 more innings at shortstop than Kiermaier has played in center field.
Though Simmons had a head start by beginning his career during the 2012 season, that big innings gap underscores Kiermaier’s issues in staying on the field. From 2016-18, Kiermaier played in only 291 of 486 games due to a fractured left hand, a hip fracture, and a torn right thumb ligament. He also had a brief injured list stint last season due to a thumb sprain, but overall, 2019 was a pretty healthy season for Kiermaier, as he appeared in 129 games and made 480 plate appearances.
All of these injuries during what would have been prime years surely haven’t helped Kiermaier’s consistency at the plate. Over 847 PA in 2018-19, Kiermaier was a decidedly below-average hitter, batting just .223/.280/.386 with 21 homers. These recent struggles dropped Kiermaier to a 98 OPS+ over his career, after he had managed a 107 OPS+ through his first 1734 PA.
To be clear, if Kiermaier is able to hit at even a 98 OPS+ level while still maintaining his superb defense and strong baserunning, he is still a major asset to Tampa Bay’s team. “Asset” always carries a different meaning to the Rays than to most teams, however, given how Tampa is consistently trying to manage one of the game’s lowest payrolls. It is also particularly applicable to Kiermaier given his status as one of the few higher-paid players on the roster.
Prior to the 2017 season, Kiermaier signed a six-year extension worth $53.5MM in guaranteed money. The deal covered Kiermaier’s four arbitration years (he was Super Two eligible) and his first two free agent seasons, plus the Rays have a club option on his services for 2023 that could add another $10.5MM to the deal. It was a rare instance of the Rays making a sizeable long-term investment in a player; Kiermaier’s deal is still the second-largest contract in franchise history, behind only the Rays’ 2012 extension with Evan Longoria.
At the time of the Kiermaier extension, the Rays were betting that they were gaining cost certainty on a borderline five-tool talent, given the hitting promise Kiermaier showed over his first three seasons. Fangraphs’ value metric calculates that Kiermaier has been worth $51.1MM from 2017-19, already almost matching the cost of his extension, though he wouldn’t have earned close to that amount via the normal arbitration process. In a world where Kiermaier doesn’t sign that extension, it’s possible that the always cost-conscious Rays might have simply non-tendered or traded Kiermaier (especially given his injury history) at some point rather than pay his increasing arbitration salaries.
Kiermaier only just turned 30 years old in April, so he can truly get the injury bug behind him, there’s still plenty of time to build on what has already been a very impressive career. Becoming an elite-level center field defender is an incredible accomplishment for any player — for a 31st-round pick, it is downright astounding. Kiermaier’s success stands out all the more in a year that will see the amateur draft reduced to five rounds, as who knows how much potential talent could fall through the cracks among the hundreds of players that would have normally been drafted over 35 additional rounds. While a Kiermaier-esque success story is quite rare, it’s unfortunate that a possible next Kiermaier (or a next Hafner, or next Feliciano, or next Howell) might not even get a chance to get their career underway.
Kiermaier has a glove made of gold and a body made of glass. One of my favorite players, but dude is injury prone.
Vastly over rated. In one year I watched him let 3 ground balls go under his glove that resulted in two triples and an inside the park HR. People fall in love with diving catches. Most of them are dramatized to make them look cool. Kiermaier, Harrison Bader and Jon Jay are kings of the unnecessary dive.
Baseballs flop
Jimmy edmonds?
He isnt good because of his dives but because of his range. He occasionally makes an error and overruns a ball turning a single into an RBI triple but that is because he always takes a high risk and tries to catch every ball. Those mistakes do cost but bottom line he saves way more runs than he costs as the defensive stats show which have him as elite in the field.
Sure he could play it safe and keep every ball in front of him but that is not his game, he is going for the gap line drives even at the risk he occasionally gets beat.
I’ll never believe that any player at any position saved 38 runs with their defense like the stats show Kiermaier did in 2015. Defensive metrics are mostly bogus.
I once saw Mickey Mantle strike out 3 times in an 0-4 day and misplay a routine ball in the outfield. Obviously a vastly overrated player.
Same with Willie Mays who hit .247 with one homer in 99 plate appearances in the World Series. And Ted Williams who hit .200 in his one World Series.
Defense stats may not be entirely reliable, but they are consistently improving, and they are unanimous in marking Kiermaier as a plus plus defender. Dismissing them out of hand does not make sense.
It is fair to be skeptical, but not completely dismissive and not based on the evidence of some games you saw, some observations you made and/or a blanket dismissal of progressive analysis.
Your comps are insanely stupid. Yes, I was making an observation of one season, but my stance is still the same. He’s overrated.
No, you said he was vastly overrated.
I can see considering him overrated by WAR or being skeptical about how good his defense really is, but to say he is vastly overrated leaves no room for defensive consideration.
As for the comps, they are neither stupid nor insane since I was not serious about making the analogy to the performance but to the notion it is sensible to say, “”In one year I watched him….” and following that with a judgement with no evidence or information but with generalizations and speculations.
Repeating “but my stance is still the same.” does nothing to advance the conversation. It does suggest there is no point to advancing the discussion since you are stubborn and immune to argument based on rational use of information.
Similar to Kevin Pillar, who was picked in the 32nd round
Pillar would be lucky to make half of what Kiermaier will make in his MLB career.
You are right. Pillar would be because Kiermaier is extremely overpaid
Clearly, 30 rounds is far too many.
Piazza just grimaced and shrugged.
okay player, but overrated
and overpaid. But let’s face it, besides a declining Longo, he was all they had until the past couple of years. And you can have him I’m sure for next to nothing if you want him.
Bat no doubt… glove, don’t think so.
the other way round, lugnut
Congrats to MLBTR for finding these odd topics and writing interesting stuff during this time of limited transaction-based news.
Arrieta didn’t sign when the Reds drafted him in the 31st round. He signed with the Orioles as a 5th rounder.
read?
Write?
Oops. My bad. I’m just conditioned to expect mistakes from the writers lol
Vamp, read this again….
“except none actually signed after being drafted with these picks, as the selecting teams were taking long-shot fliers to see if they could entice these prospects into starting their pro careers early.”
Really? It is so easy for people to be rude from behind their computer screen. People need to stop responding in such negative ways. Maybe he glanced over that part but there is no reason to be rude. I apologize for them vamp.
How was I rude hailphire? I was simply showing vamp what he missed. No name calling. No one word smartass comment. You’re right as far as vamp glancing over something but ur damn wrong to say I’m hiding behind my computer screen. I’m the only poster that tried to help him see what he missed. Save ur damn apology
It’s all good. I didn’t feel disrespected at all.
Appreciate the reply vamp. I thought it was obvious that you probably overlooked the info. I’ve done the same thing. Btw, mlb network had a show talking about all the halloffamers that were drafted after the 5th round. If it airs again check it out. Pretty amazing stuff
Let’s not forget the greatest late drafted player ever in the history of baseball…. in the 62nd round of the 1988 draft the Dodgers selected Mike Piazza. Thus proving you never know when during a draft, you can select a hall of fame caliber player. This article is basically a joke
Why is this article a joke? He was simply pointing out that you can still discover gems in the later rounds. I think we all know that’s not a novel concept but still was an interesting read. Please tell us when your article on this site, or any site for that matter, is published so we can be free with our criticism of you as well??
It’s just another article sucking off Tampa Bay.
Aww poor thing, your jealousy is showing.
OK, cracker.
In my years of perusing this site, that is the stupidest comment I’ve ever seen. You really should be ashamed of yourself.
Ok inbred loser.
Milb, what was ur reason for ur last sentence. Up until that sentence you basically agreed with the writer that late picks can be great. Then BAM…last sentence.
He wants to talk about guys that were selected in the 31st round that didn’t make it and never signed??? Whooopty dooo! I mentioned a hall of famer that got drafted and signed 31 rounds beyond that! If you are going to defend the number of rounds in the the draft… then piazza is the most prime example of it! Not only did the rest of major league teams sleep on him, so did the organization that took him. They had no intention of drafting him
Piazza would have gone undrafted, but he was selected as a favor by Tommy LaSorda to Piazza’s father.
One pick 25 years ago that hasn’t been replicated makes this a joke
That type of logic shows you’re the joke
If you looked at the production of late draft picks its non existent or few and far between. You can’t find HOF players that late and happening 1 time in 1988 doesn’t help your case.
No the joke is Piazza would have went undrafted. Meanwhile he was 100% completely overlooked. All the so called terrific scouting in the world had overlooked a hall of fame player at that time and wrote him off. Rarity or not… it did happen.
And Kiermaier already beats Hafner per WAR
Hefner was primarily a DH.
Kiermaier can’t hit. He may walk softly, but he doesn’t carry a big stick. His D notwithstanding, the guy hasn’t had an OBP above .300 since 2017.
Incredibly overrated player, basically a 4th or 5th outfielder type whose value has been inflated by advanced metrics.
“Incredibly Overrated played based on metrics that actual show his true value on defense”
Fixed that idiotic statement for you. Sorry if you don’t see ball, hit ball… you can’t understand value. You’re Simple minded, so he’s overrated.
Or you’re just simple minded. Lmao
Took a gander at Kiermaier’s career. What a strange 2015 season. He had a 718 OPS but 7.1 WAR. All that WAR coming out of his glove is just crazy. Similar to Ozzie Smith’s 1989 season.
shows how crazy WAR is. it can be useful at times, but wrong in many others, and how it rates offense vs defence is a farce.
I think fWAR does it better than bWAR. Baseball reference WAR values defense way too often. fWAR in 2014 put him at a much more reasonable 4.3.
Dude played his cards right signing on for that extension.