At present, the Cubs have only two starting pitchers under contract for the 2021 season: Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs actually control Darvish through 2023 and Hendricks through ’24, so they’ll continue as rotation mainstays into their mid-30s. The pair combined for 355 2/3 innings of 3.72 ball in 2019, and they’ll earn a total of $36MM in 2021. It’s a good starting point, but the Cubs have to address 60% of their rotation before the 2021 season.
The Cubs’ Three Free Agents
Jon Lester’s time with the Cubs has been a clear success no matter what else happens, and he’ll never have to buy his own drink in Chicago. The lefty will turn 37 prior to the ’21 season. Is there a way he continues with the Cubs? The easiest path would be through his current contract, which guarantees his $25MM mutual option for 2021 with 200 innings pitched in 2020. Obviously Lester can’t reach that number in a shortened season, but such benchmarks would become prorated. Meaning if MLB teams play an 81-game season, Lester’s goal would become 100 innings.
Lester has averaged 5.62 innings per start over the past three years, so in a half-season he’d either need to go deeper into games or make 18 starts to reach 100 innings. In a recent chat with WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Lester talked about the need for pitchers to ramp up carefully to avoid injury, and it’s doubtful he’d push himself well past six innings per start just to get his option to vest. I suppose in the most extreme example, MLB could follow through on its 50-game schedule threat, dropping Lester’s benchmark to about 62 innings. He could theoretically pull that off in 10 starts, but it still seems physically risky to push to a level he hasn’t reached in years.
On the Cubs’ end, they likely prefer the $10MM buyout to locking Lester in for $25MM. So new manager and former Lester battery-mate David Ross could encounter a delicate situation, where if Lester somehow kicks off a 2020 season going deeper into games, Ross’ bosses might push for earlier hooks. Ultimately, though, I don’t expect Lester’s option to vest, in which case it’s a mutual one. It’s rare that both sides exercise such an option, meaning Lester would become a free agent. Working out a new short-term deal could be tricky, with the Cubs already on the hook for a significant $10MM buyout.
The Cubs also stand to lose Jose Quintana to free agency. Quintana, who will turn 32 prior to next season, hasn’t quite gotten the results the Cubs hoped for after giving up Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease for him in July 2017. In his time with the Cubs, Q has posted a 4.23 ERA over 429 2/3 innings. His impressive durability has remained intact, but the southpaw has dropped to about 5.4 innings per start since 2018. By a results-based measure, Baseball Reference WAR, Quintana was at just 1.4 in 2019. FanGraphs WAR, rooted in the Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stat, puts him at a healthy 3.5 – rewarding respectable strikeout, walk, and home run numbers but ignoring his allowing 10.1 hits per nine innings.
Wherever you land on WAR, it’s fair to say Quintana projects to be better than 2019’s 4.68 ERA. 170 solid innings of 4.30 ball might be a reasonable expectation moving forward. It’s not clear yet on what the qualifying offer may look like if teams play a shortened 2020 season, so it’s impossible to say whether the Cubs would offer one. My guess is that they would not make the offer, instead maintaining their financial flexibility. That’s what they did with Cole Hamels last winter.
Though he’s penciled in as the Cubs’ fifth starter for 2020, Tyler Chatwood’s contract has been a bust for the Cubs, and he’ll surely be allowed to leave via free agency.
Internal Options
What options do the Cubs have to fill a rotation spot internally? There’s Alec Mills, the soft-tossing righty who turns 29 in November. Mills was a candidate for the Cubs’ fifth starter job this spring, so he’ll likely be in the mix next year as well. Adbert Alzolay, 26 next March, would be in the running again as well. Alzolay pitched 109 innings in total over the past two seasons, and Mills hasn’t been particularly successful even at Triple-A. Both pitchers are depth options, and if they’re favorites for a 2021 rotation job, it will be because they’re affordable.
Lefty Brailyn Marquez is the crown jewel of the Cubs’ farm system, but he’s yet to pitch above High A and projects for a 2022 ETA. Even that goal could be pushed back given the lack of a minor league season this year. The Cubs do have a few starters with experience at Double-A or above in Cory Abbott, Tyson Miller, and Justin Steele, all of whom have ceilings at as back-end starters according to Baseball America. The bottom line? The Cubs need to add at least two starters from outside before next season, and possibly three.
Free Agency
After paying a $7.6MM luxury tax bill for 2019, the Cubs were looking to stay under the $208MM payroll mark in 2020 as a means of resetting the escalating penalties. The Cubs won’t get a free reset if the 2020 season is canceled, but if games are played the club will likely maintain their goal of staying below the base tax threshold. It’s also possible that the luxury tax will be temporarily reduced in some way as part of the current negotiation between MLB and the players’ union, to grease offseason spending. If the Cubs don’t spend money during the 2020-21 offseason, I don’t expect the luxury tax to be the reason again.
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts recently claimed that “about 70 percent of the revenue that comes into our organization comes in on day of game.” He also said, “We’ve already lost half that season, so in a best-case scenario, we’re looking at recovering maybe 20 percent of our total income.” We’ll never know the real financial picture, but obviously the Cubs won’t make nearly as much money as they expected to in 2020. It’s easy to see this being the justification for modest free agent spending. Still, there almost has to be some money to spend if the salaries of Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood come off the books.
While some of the savings could be offset by arbitration raises for players like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras, it’s impossible to project what those arbitration raises will look like after a shortened season. I imagine we’d be subjected to a fundamental disagreement across baseball on whether a half-season should result in a half-raise, but at least there’s already a mechanism in place to settle that with arbitration hearings.
The free agent market will feature roughly 30 credible options, many of whom the Cubs have already tried. Aside from the trio mentioned above, there’s recent former Cubs Cole Hamels, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Arrieta, Brett Anderson, and Drew Smyly. If the Cubs seek innings, they could make a run at Trevor Bauer, who famously seeks a one-year deal with a team that will let him pitch every fourth day. With three vacancies, getting significant innings out of someone like Bauer could fit the Cubs better than an arguably better pitcher with a poor track record of durability, like James Paxton.
Though the market lacks a true ace, options abound with a solid group including Marcus Stroman, Mike Minor, Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, Robbie Ray, and Anthony DeSclafani. Feel free to explore next winter’s starting pitcher market further with this FanGraphs leaderboard I created. Even on a budget, the Cubs could plausibly target any of these guys.
The Trade Market
I’ve yet to see any concepts floated regarding in-season trading during a shortened 2020 campaign. At the least we can assume players will be traded in the offseason and starting pitchers will be available. The Cubs’ farm system is far from robust, but they do have minor league assets to consider trading. There’s also a good chance of the team trading Kris Bryant, who becomes eligible for free agency after 2021.
Even the teams that were clearly rebuilding for 2020 could adjust course if they somehow make a fluke run in a shortened season with expanded playoffs. Names like Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris, Joe Musgrove, Jon Gray, Danny Duffy, Chris Archer, Jose Urena, and Nick Pivetta could reasonably be available, though we may be in for an unpredictable offseason.
Whatever path they choose, the Cubs seem likely to remake their rotation in a significant way for 2021. What do you expect them to do? Let us know in the comments.
As much as I love lester, the cubs have to really hope that he doesnt get the innings to guarantee that option. It’s time to move on and bring some youth into that rotation
The ricketts really seem to be laying the groundwork to be cheap in the coming years with comments like the one above about their losses this year. Expect a lot more of that from other owners as well
I’m assuming you’re a Cubs fan. Just curious, why wouldn’t you want to keep Lester? They’re on the hook for 10m regardless, and I’m not sure they could better replace him for 15m. If he takes the hill for his option year, it buys time for Marquez to develop.
That $10M buyout wouldn’t count toward the luxury tax in 2021 though because Lester wouldn’t be on the 40-man roster at that point, so it lessens their burden toward that tax by $10M. The $10M buyout is averaged into his AAV of all the seasons he was actually on the roster, but his entire salary (including the buyout) falls off the books in 2021 if he is indeed bought out.
Thanks for the clarification there. I didn’t realize the luxury tax implications. I assumed the buyout counted toward that figure. It makes more sense now.
Because the 10 mil is a mutual option it remains on the books (for AVV purposes) for 2021.
I bet Kris Bryant to the Braves could get the Cubs some good pitchers.
Anderson and Wright.
Not sure they could receive that strong of a return for 1 or even 1.5 years of Bryant. Seems like a lot more than the Red Sox got for Betts
No dice. Anderson is way too valuable to give up for 1.5 years of Bryant. I’m not sure I’d trade Wright for him, to be honest. Both, though? That’s a ridiculous ask. Keep Bryant.
Maybe Wilson and Toussaint for Bryant and ten million in 2021.
I’m not sure the Braves would get the 10 million kicked in to help offset the cost, since the Cubs main motivation to trade Bryant would be to save cash.
I think the prospect package you proposed is pretty close to a fair one though, possibly with a guy like Alex Jackson thrown in.
No Chance you would ever get Anderson and Wright. I see one of the two in a package, if not a package of 2/3 of our Tier 2 pitching prospects.
Teams are not going to trade big time prospects to try and win the World Series this year. Nobody will sell their future for a title with an asterisk. So the Cubs will be selling 1 year of Bryant. That value is going to be less than Betts. The Dodgers would absolutely not include May in the deal. The Braves will not include Anderson.
A title with an asterisk? Kind of like those 60 and 70 HR seasons by Bonds, Sosa and McGwire?
Quite true, except cheaters always expect to get away with it. Like the Astros. They are trying SO hard to convince the world that their title should not have an asterisk. Their fans will argue against it until death, even though to everyone else on Earth the Astros never won a title. They would all kill to have a legitimate one, even if they sent it.
This year’s title will be known from the outset to have an asterisk. Any time anyone says “My team won the 2020 World Series!,” everyone’s first comment is going to be “Wasn’t that the year they only player 81 games? Please! That doesn’t count!”
The entire year of 2020 deserves an asterisk!
Thats just to spark the conversation. Gotta be a 3 for 1 at worst.
Would love to see Marquez and Alzolay take 2 slots and run w them
Agreed.
If they want to finish in 4th place, sure, why not?
Marquez is not ready for 2021. He was electric in the Midwest League but was very wild.
Marquez has a chance but needs some time. Best fastball of any lefty in the minors. Can’t rush him though, as tempting as the need for a SP is.
My guess is that they will be trading Bryant and/or Contreras for two quality starters.
5 years ago I thought Jon Lester was about to retire
Why?
When he went 19-5 with a 2.55 ERA? 5 years ago you were an idiot.
Wouldn’t be the worst idea to start another rebuild starting this November.
They’re nowhere near a rebuild. Build around Baez and Contreas. Obviously you also gotta extend Rizzo. Losing KB would hurt a lot i don’t see them keeping him and baez,rizzo and Contreas. Plus sign 3 starters.. if Arrieta went back to his 2015-16 form I’d offer him.2/30 next winter.
I very highly doubt that arrieta is going back to that and if he did he isn’t signing for that cheap
They are SO near a rebuild. They’ve stepped backward the last 3 years. You kidding me? They deal Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Lester, Contreras….basically keep Heyward and Darvish, and the Cubs could be back in-business in 2023.
Arrieta is not your answer to your problems. If the Cubs are willing to spend $240-250 mil in 2021 they will not contend. The turnaround could be quick for the Cubs if they hit reset come this offseason.
Your mention of building around 2 guys on 26 man roster indicates you are not analyzing their situation with an unbiased lens. Arrieta returning to 2016 form? You are in denial.
Am I reading this correctly…Ricketts claims that 70% of the team’s revenue comes from games, when the league has given an overall estimate of 40%? Not sure I’m reading that right, because it sure doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Don’t the Cubs have a better than average TV deal?
I also find it interesting how we’ve been told for years that player salaries have NOTHING to do with ticket prices. How can that be true if they claim (at least) 40% of a team’s revenue is tied to fan attendance. Those statements seem to be a direct contradiction of each other
The Cubs have little in the way of TV deals at the moment. All of their deals expired prior to this season when they launched Marquee as their own network. Marquee was struggling to get carriage with several major outlets (Comcast being the major one, with something over 50% of the Chicago-area market if I remember correctly) when this whole thing happened. There’s obviously been no progress there since.
IF his statement is true at all, that would be why. It’s not indicative of the broader league.
I have the exact same question. For years any of us who even mentioned a correlation between ticket prices, exorbitant vendor and merchandise prices, and players’ salaries were summarily dismissed as ignorant fools who don’t have the mental capacity to understand the economics of baseball by armchair “experts” who’d apparently been divinely enlightened.
Jose Quintana trade….”Thanks Cubs”
Thanks for what? Did the White Sox win something in the last 2 years I’m not aware of?
Neither Cease nor Eloy are anywhere close to being done with their contracts, so there’s still time. As for winning, I didn’t know championships was the only way to win a trade. If that’s true, nearly all trades are lose-lose.
My guess, though, is you’re a jealous Cubs fan who sees his team’s window closing and can’t stomach that the Sox are very soon going to be better. They may never get the love the Cubs do, but I’d bet they have more wins this decade.
If you made that bet you’d lose masterly. White Sox will lucky to win 86+ more than twice the next 5 years. 3rd place at best.
Cubs are going to lose Bryant, have no farm system, and are saddled with bad contracts on Yu and Heyward. I’ll admit they probably have the best player on either team in Baez, but last year, your mighty team managed only 84 wins. Soon they’ll have to try to replace Lester and Bryant. And you can’t even say that the Cubs will just spend triple what the Sox will because their FO has suddenly become very cost conscious. They didn’t improve at all this past offseason. I’m all for being a big fan of your team, but being a completely oblivious homer makes you look ridiculous.
Oblivious homer? Have you reread your comments? No hater/homers like White Sox fans.
Especially in these comment sections. There are plenty of idiot cub fans out there but the comments around here are filled with white Sox fans who live to try to hate on the cubs
Only Eloy Jimienez has made an impact. Dylan Cease has done nothing. And he’s still waiting to even be called up. 3 years into his extention Eloy will ask for a trade. Maybe less. They’ll average 75 wins the next 5 or 6 years. 2020 doesn’t count
Cease has done nothing…yet. He’s been in the league for a total of one year. And how much impact has Quintana had for you. He’s been roughly league average. So, at worst, the Sox got a better player than Quintana and a throw-in who evened out the difference in 2019. But the Sox’ players should be getting better, and they’ll have them for years, while Quintana is getting worse and will be gone soon. Sox won this trade easily, but you’re too obtuse to admit that because doing so would actually be some small measure of praise for the hated White Sox.
Unfortunately, I’d have to agree that the Sox won that trade as well.
Average Wrigley field fan spends about 135 bucks factoring in food, parking, and souvenirs. 81 home games x 135 x39,000 average attendance = 426,465,000. That’s what the fans mean to Wrigley field. You can cry all day long about tv contracts, but how many are going to watch them now? Anybody here going to tune in to watch a game with no fans in the stands? Not me, that isn’t MLB baseball. I think a lot of sponsors are going to run from that tv deal. Even online sales of jerseys and souvenirs are going to take a huge hit as well until they start treating the fans right.
I’ll be watching if there is a season but the Cubs have their new channel and not all the cable providers have added it yet.
I will absolutely tune in to baseball regardless of whether or not there are fans in the stands. With the Cubs in particular, the real question is whether or not I will be allowed to. Probably will have to be through some MLB.TV, ahem, magic.
Hulu carries the Cubs.
megaj –
Who is crying about TV contracts? That’s being just a little bit dramatic. I think you are in the considerable minority by saying that you won’t watch games on the TV. Have you been paying attention to the ratings for other sporting events currently being shown with no fans in the stands? Golf, Nascar, MMA, etc?? People will absolutely be tuning in…if you choose not to it’s not going to effect the rest of us
every cubs fan will watch them. Cubs fans are not white Sox fans. We’re actually loyal. Everyone that doesn’t go to games can watch at home. Theres more than one way to watch other than the new channel.
You are WAY off with the $135 price per fan. Many people walk to the park (or take public transit), lots of people don’t by food or drinks in the park either. That number is much closer to $75 – $80 per person than $135.
Not to mention, the food service is outsourced, so the Cubs probably get 30-40% of food sales (Max), merchandise has at least 40% of COGS, and there are private parking lots near Wrigley as well, so let’s change that $420M number down to $200 – $220M. That’s a HUGE difference.
Thank you for that moment of sanity.
The owners are free to claim 150% of their revenue comes from the gate, since they use Mafia accounting, have a Get Out of Jail Free card from antitrust exemtion
exemption and don’t have to share real numbers with anyone.
If the gate was that valuable, why would anyone pay $1B for the Royals, or $1.2B for the Marlins? Both teams averaged ~16k per game in attendance.
The value is in the TV contracts, the revenue sharing (for the poor cousins), and the license to creatively account for all this money.
bet Cubs resign at least one of them
Same. I feel as if it’d make sense for them to keep Lester, and bid adieu to Q.
Maybe they could sign him for 1 yr and 5-8 million plus his buyout
$10 million is his already. Why sign with the Cubs for 5-8 million when he can get 10-12 million easy from another team????? If it is only 5-8 his is gone…..
Buyout Lester for $10 million for luxury tax reasons only, then re-sign him back to a 1 year $7-$8 million deal to be a back end guy which he is pretty much is now. Cubs still need him but not at $25 million luxury tax hit.
Quintana is good as gone.
Re-sign*
1) Hendricks 2) Darvish 3) Bauer 4) Lester (sign him to 1 year at 5 million + 10 million buyout for a 15 million payout. 5) Mike Minor 6) Alec Mills 7) Adbert Alzolay
There is no way the Cubs can go into 2021 without signing 3 FA starters. Mills and Alzolay are good long relievers but can’t be counted on for 20+ starts. Lester, Chatwood, and Quintana will count for 43.5 million in 2020. Lester on a smaller deal, Bauer on a one year deal at 15, and Mike Minor 2 yrs 10 million AAV could be had for about the same amount.
The Cubs could have $30 million to spend next offseason, but I don’t think Lester, Bauer, and Minor come that cheaply.
I see the Cubs trading Bryant for MLB ready pitching and then try to re-sign Lester to a smaller deal until Marquez is ready.
The payroll room will go to extentions to Baez, Schwarber and Rizzo.
Probably but it is nice to wish. They will have at least 33.5 million coming off the books from Chatwood, Lester except his buyout, and Quintana. But as some of the other people are saying, most of the money will likely go to other extensions. Just thought it may be a good fivesome if the stars were to align. I still think if they want a championship level squad it is the best option. Trading Bryant, Baez, or Contreras for pitching is just creating one hole to plug another.
I have a feeling the new “deal” being worked on now between owners and players will include a rest of luxury tax. If so…. Cubs can spend freely without any luxury tax issues.
Bauer, Lester and Minor all for $30 million? Wake up sir, you are dreaming.
I gotta believe that Lester could easily get more than $5 million from just about any MLB team. He’d be getting that $10 mil buyout regardless of who he signs with, so that’s no incentive for him to re-sign with the Cubs
Zero chance Bauer signs a one year deal for less than the value of a QO, and the floor for Minor is the Charlie Morton deal.
Quantrill and Hedges for Contreras and ?
Contreras is worth more than that alone
Agreed…San Diego would have to include another substantial piece
You guys drive a hard bargain, especially when you’ve still got CBT issues. A five-year-controllable starter and (arguably) the league’s best defensive catcher isn’t enough to rent Willson for 2 years? Ok, fair enough, what else would you like to see included? A MLB piece in Zach Davies or a prospect? It would seem the Cubbies need arms, I included Hedges on the assumption you’d like a catcher back.
If you think that’s enough your delusional
Zach Davies, Cal Quantrill and Austin Hedges for 2 years of Willson Contreras is delusional?!? I bet the Cubbies FO does this deal. And it’s “you’re” delusional, chief.
The Padres will not be trading for Contreras. They would be stupid to try to trade Quantrill now when his value is down. They can wait until the end of this year, when his value should be substantially higher. Even then, I doubt the Padres will be willing to pony up what the Cubs will be looking for unless their demands come way down.
Agreed, just having fun with fan-fiction ‘Rumors’.
I got ya. But you must understand that you are talking to Cub’s fans, not their front office. I have no doubt that fans will be able to ask for Paddack and/or Gore, in addition to Quantrill and Hedges, and feel entirely justified in doing so.
Click! (Dialtone)
As usual, you are spot-on Javia! Enjoy your day amigo!
Why would you trade Contreas? 2nd best catcher in baseball. Until Yadi retitres He’ll the best after that. Not many catchers to compare Contreas to. Some are good behind the plate but lack with the bat and vice versa. Contreas is great all around.
Pitch Franing is not a stat.
Try telling your pitchers that pitch framing isn’t a stat. See what they say. Also JT Realmuto might have something to say about who is the best catcher in baseball.
I agree with you, the Cubs should not trade Contreras.
its not a stat at all not even talking heads think its a stat. A pitch and catch a pitch below the knees or above the belt. That means nada because ultimately it’s the umpires call. However if it was Contreas is one of the best at the non stat framing of pitches
Actually Contreras is a terrible pitch framer, which is why I am assuming that you do not consider it a stat. Anything that grades against your guy doesn’t count. Gotcha.
google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j…
Contreas is just as good as the next guy. Just because your teams catcher isn’t nearly as good doesnt mean Contreas is bad at a non stat pitch framing. At the end of the day its all moot because pitch framing means nothing. Because it’s not a stat never was never will be.
It funny you found an article thats 2 years old though
I entered “Wilson Contreras defense” in Google. This is the first article that came up. If you don’t like it don’t blame me, blame Google. Yes he is better than my team’s catcher. I am just showing you that you may be a bit of a homer and Contreras might not be quite as good as you think he is.
How about Andrew Cashner?
He will be 34 at the beginning of the 2021 season. Not sure he will be able to improve enough at that age to justify handing him 25+ starts in 2021.
Cubs fans are surely hoping they aim higher than Andrew Cashner for an open spot in the rotation
Why would they waste money on a pitcher that has done nothing. Thanks Jed and Theo for Trading away and trading for Anthony Rizzo
Cashner sucks! I would not pay 29 cents for him.
Still can’t believe the Sox got Eloy and Cease for Q. I’d have been thrilled with just Eloy.
Ricketts comment about the Cubs making 70% of their revenue on game day is pretty accurate. The Cubs made 470 million last season and an estimated 300 million on game day (3 million fans at an estimated 100 per fan cost). I’m not sure if that also includes Wrigley Roof Tops or not.
Depending on arbitration raises, without roster moves, the Cubs will only be under the luxury tax by between 15-20 million for 2021 and will need to fill out 3/5 the rotation. The Cubs will work extremely hard to deal either Bryant or Rizzo in the offseason which may prove to be nearly impossible as every team will be pinching pennies on their 2021 rosters.
The good news for the Cubs is that the 2020-2021 free agent class outside of Betts, Realmuto, Pederson and Turner is lacking any type of impact bat.
I’d still love a trade between the Braves and cubs for KB. It was in the rumor mill for a min and it could still pay off for both teams although I know the financials aren’t gonna allow it to happen. But we have a couple pitching prospect on the cusp, feel like something could be worked out.
Will the Braves be willing to sign him to a $250-$300 million contract? Because that is what he is going to be looking for. If they are not, there really isn’t any use in them trading for him is there?
Pittsburgh Pirates will trade your whatever players you need.
Arrrr, I reckon Captain Nutting doesn’t have enough doubloons to trade for rum…