Dr. Matt Swartz is a Labor Economist who has researched and published on MLB labor markets for over a decade at websites including The Hardball Times, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus, as well as at MLB Trade Rumors. Matt created the arbitration salary projection model for MLB Trade Rumors, and co-created the SIERA pitching statistic available at FanGraphs. He has consulted for a Major League team since 2013, in addition to working in his day job as an economist in the cable industry. This article reflects his own opinion and not that of any of his employers or clients.
Previous posts: Resolving This Player-Owner Dispute Should Be Easy; MLB Collective Bargaining and Risk Sharing.
There is a way that players can get prorated salaries for a 72-game regular season and the owners can make enough money to only pay the equivalent of 68% of prorated salaries. We know the way that owners will agree to a deal with prorated salaries for 2020; they insist they need the revenue to make up for losses incurred during the regular season. While both owners and players have proposed expanded playoffs as a way to increase that revenue, they have been unable to create enough revenue for the owners to bite. I have a solution for this problem—start the playoffs earlier, add playoff teams, make the series longer, and reap the extra television revenue. There is more than enough there to get a deal done.
The biggest roadblock to completing a deal is the combination of the union’s insistence that players be paid on a prorated basis per regular season game, and the owners’ insistence that players take less than their prorated salaries due to absence of fans in the stands. Players have shown a willingness to extend the playoffs—effectively playing some games for free. Owners have shown some willingness to put on a 50-game shortened season with typical playoff structure, but have balked apparently at the risk of the players filing a grievance for not putting on as long a season as possible.
Eugene Freedman tweeted to me earlier in this series that the reason players were so insistent on prorated salaries is to avoid precedent. If this is true, the only way around this is finding more revenue sources—something the player proposals have hinted at, but not provided adequately to appease owners.
The owners have repeatedly centered on completing the regular season by September 27 and the World Series by the end of October, fearing that a second wave of COVID-19 in the fall could preclude the playoffs.
Fans have an additional concern that my proposal would resolve—they want to make sure that the World Series Champion deserves their title. A shortened season, combined with expanded playoffs, naturally increases the possibility that a mediocre team could walk away with the crown.
They could solve this by ending the regular season 10 days early to end on September 17, using doubleheaders and other ways to get to 72 games (or just shrinking the season further if the players are amenable). Then they would have 10 extra days to get in a lot more playoff games.
My proposal is that playoffs are expanded to 16 teams, but that all 15 series are Best-of-Seven series. On average, this will increase the expected number of nationally broadcast playoff games from 36 to 90 – a whopping increase of 150%. With $787 million reportedly at stake in television revenue for those 36 playoff games, it stands to reason that networks would pay at least half as much for the addition 54 games as the original 36, which brings in something like a whopping $590 million in extra revenue.
If players are content to simply get by on prorated salaries for 72 regular season games, they would receive about $1.84 billion in revenue. The owners’ extra playoff revenue places them in the equivalent position of 68% of prorated salaries. Marginal costs of operating these games are probably small enough to keep this only a couple percent higher. The owners almost certainly need the players to take a haircut smaller than 32%, so there is plenty of room for give in this approach. Even if networks were only willing to pay a third of the per-playoff-game rate, that would still be enough revenue to get owners to effectively pay the equivalent of 79% of prorated salaries. There is probably even room in there to give the players some playoff share, cover some marginal costs of games, and other things that could be required for this to be profitable to owners and acceptable to players.
As a result, the odds that an inferior team wins a given series are lower, and it becomes more likely that a deserving champion is crowned. The league could even take further advantage of the empty-stadium format by tilting home field advantage entirely towards the team with the superior regular season record.
I have researched home field advantage extensively, and have learned that rather than home crowd support or even last at-bats, the real reason home field advantage exists is that players are more familiar with their own parks. Teams who are home for a 7-game series will have a 59% chance of winning an evenly matched series already. A superior team certainly could easily have a 70% chance of winning a series in many cases.
This seems to be something that would accomplish the requisite situation for all parties, and there are many other ways that players could help teams add revenue without sacrificing their prorated salary demand. But the key is many more playoff games, since that is the only way owners make back losses they claim from the regular season, and the only way players do not have to surrender their principle of prorated salaries.
8ManLineupNoPitcherNoDH
Wake me up when there’s an actual signed agreement.
lovableschmuck
Seattle Mariners,2021 World Champions!Or will it be the Orioles or Tigers?
Iknowmorebaseball
2020?
48-team MLB
Every postseason series should have been a best-of-seven this whole time. There’s no need to have an off-day every single time you travel. They don’t do it that way during the regular season. Obviously have a day off between each round but you can play seven games in seven days.
MoneyBallJustWorks
I would say include one day off during the series but if it’s a 2-3-2 format have a day off between games 5&6 for travel.
Means a 7 game series is over in 8 days.
my question with the above is if you are focusing on more nationally televised playoff games, would a local network with a contract for reg season not complain.
Perksy
Totally agree. I hate how they have off days for travel. Not necessary. I actually liked the original idea of teams playing in Arizona because it reduces travel making scheduling easier. Plus there would be no rainouts. So doubleheader’s could be done with no problem.
Bill the Cat
Days off during the playoffs have ALWAYS been about getting as many games on TV as possible which won’t be competing against another playoff game. The games are always spaced apart as effectively as possible to maximize advertising dollars and get as many games on during primetime hours as possible. This is done by the insistence of the networks, and I wouldn’t expect them to budge on this issue.
clepto
^Finally…
A person who thinks BEFORE typing. Bill, you get it. Thank you.
Other poor quality commentors, take note. This is how you comment….with reasonable thoughts. Youngstank, strike4, cards81, themed, wiffle….this means you.
Iknowmorebaseball
Clepto not everyone types my goat! Get it right
youngTank15
Here you are again, I SAID NOTHING TO YOU.
jorge78
Love your work Dr. Swartz!
giantsphan12
Seems to me that the days off are as much about keeping the top-of-rotation guys fresh. Teams over-utilize those arms in the playoffs and the days off give them a little help in managing teams best pitching.
RonJohn00
I think having a round-robin component would be fun and would help address concerns that mediocre teams could go further than they deserve. Split the best 16 teams into west and east, send them to Phoenix & Miami to play a round robin then take the top 4 from each side to Houston to play best of 7 series. to finish the playoffs.
Round-Robin would provide many revenue-producing games and fans would be more interested in watching games featuring their not-home-teams. They’re already destroying the AL vs NL aspect by playing the regular season geographically so there’s no need to preserve that during the playoffs. Playing all the playoffs in warm cities with retractable roofs would let them play further into the winter.
claude raymond
I was thinking something like the World Cup. Kinda like what ur idea is about Ronjohn. Group play (aka round robin) then a tourney. To me, if you just play within ur group, you:
1. Keep the teams together and save money limiting travel.
2. Legitimize ur record cuz your other group members and you played the same opponents
3. You kinda make it a World Series where it’s your region vs other regions similar to American League v national league only more “leagues”.
4. Have a pacific group (sf, lad, laa, oak, sea and only non pacific is rocks), a central group, Southwest etc
5. Each group member plays each other member only 12 times for 60 games (12 x 5). Hell, in a regular season you play each imtradivision team 19 times
6. This way you have clearly shown ur the best in your region and you move on. Like college.
The tourney, really?? One thing at a time, I’m exhausted.
Feel free to bash this
claude raymond
AZ instead of rocks in pacific
claude raymond
Damn, San Diego not AZ. I said I was exhausted
JonBryden
Of course lets add more playoff teams so baseball can be more like basketball and hockey. Lousy idea. The more baseball becomes like those sports the less i care about it. Keep the playoff format as is.
Iknowmorebaseball
I agree! I hope the Pirates don’t get in and get hot. It would be a shame if they go deep into the playoffs and knock off good quality teams. Basketball and football can get away with the surplus of playoff teams. Those two sports have the best team win most of the time. In baseball that’s not the case and just look at the winning percentages at the end of the season each year. The best team in baseball has a winning percentage close to the low seat teams in football and basketball teams that make the playoffs.
Iknowmorebaseball
For fun I just checked nfl football final standings in 2019. You have one team with the 875 winning percentage, three teams with the 813 winning percentage, and two teams with a 750 winning percentage. This is possibly the reason why football sets their playoff format with a surplus of teams. In football it doesn’t matter because one of those high percentage winning teams are going to win the super bowl. Basically there’s no upsets in football. This year might be the first time in any sports that a 500 winning percentage team in the regular season wins the world series. By the way the highest winning pct team in MLB in 2019 was the Astros with a 660 winning pct
MoneyBallJustWorks
comparing 16 games to 162 is crazy.
Iknowmorebaseball
Lol…… If the Patriots played last year 162 they still have a great winning pct. What are you saying? Are you saying that if they played a lot of games like baseball they would lose more games. if that’s the case then you’re trying to say that over 162 games the bad teams in the NFL would win more games and the good teams would lose more games. I don’t get what you’re saying. Okay let’s say the NBA then, maybe you’ll get a point there. Check who had the best winning percentage in the NBA in 2019. They play way more then 16 games! And still have way better winning pct from the top teams. You have to understand my man that baseball has a lot of luck to do with it. In the world series and playoffs all it takes is for you to have a few miscues or the ball bouncing in the favor of your opponents and you lose and get eliminated.
ReverieDays
More than half of the league in the playoffs? What a lame idea.
Iknowmorebaseball
Hahahaha I know. Is lame! It will be cool for some fans that like a crappy team. I could just see my friend Pancho from Miami telling me how excited he is cuz the Marlins made the playoffs.
trident
Assuming an agreement is made I’m curious what percentage of fans would consider the 2020 WS champs legitimate?
marcfrombrooklyn
Just to throw out another idea to address concerns about “undeserving” “mediocre” teams getting through, increase the home field advantage. Make it five and two rather than four and three for the division winners in the first round. (Wild cards 1 and 2 can play a four and three series.) If there is no gate, the team playing just two home games doesn’t lose the gate for the lost home game. And, if we need to make the first round five games, the division winners can play at home for four of the five games.
Iknowmorebaseball
Ok….. So we are looking at more teams making the playoffs. Basically more than half the teams in Major league baseball will be able to make the playoffs this year. I think I’m getting sick
claude raymond
I’m guessing mlb sees nba doing same thing and knows how much the nba makes off playoff tv, which is a ton, and figures why not us?? With all the revenue lost this year it makes sense. Plus it’s a one off schedule.
Iknowmorebaseball
Your right, I agree with that. It’s money
CleatusAnkletaker
Matt Schwartz for commissioner!!!
claude raymond
Cleatus speakus the truthus
astros_fan_84
I like this idea. Is it perfect, no. But, it makes 2020 a postseason tournament.
If fine with it. I’m tired of owners running off fans. The games need to start.