In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR. Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.
So far, we’ve done the Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles. The Twins are next.
We’ll start by removing free agents Nelson Cruz, Homer Bailey, Tyler Clippard, Rich Hill, Alex Avila, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Odorizzi, Ehire Adrianza, and Trevor May from consideration. We’ll also take out righty Sergio Romo, who has a club option for 2021.
Josh Donaldson will take one spot on the protected list due to his no-trade clause. I’ll lock down ten additional players:
Max Kepler
Jose Berrios
Jorge Polanco
Mitch Garver
Miguel Sano
Byron Buxton
Michael Pineda
Kenta Maeda
Taylor Rogers
Luis Arraez
That leaves four players to choose from this group:
Jorge Alcala
Willians Astudillo
Jake Cave
Randy Dobnak
Tyler Duffey
Zack Littell
Sean Poppen
Eddie Rosario
Devin Smeltzer
Cody Stashak
Lewis Thorpe
LaMonte Wade Jr
Matt Wisler
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly four players you think the Twins should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
I would think Eddie Rosario and Tyler Duffey would be 2 of them.
Dobnak and Smeltzer as well imo. Really want to add La Tortuga for the memes but he’s not THAT valuable of a player.
Nah Im sure theyd be 110% cool if someone took Rosario (and that salary) off them right now-
Hes already been the piece they (hoped) to move for value in the past- No takers
Duffey Dobnak and Smeltzer 100%
Why Eddie??? He’s not that good screws up as often as making a good play. And just one season left maybe most overrated Twin in decades.. Alcala has to be #1. Followed by Duffy and Thorpe.
leaving Rosario exposed would be foolish. he is much better than he gets credit for.
Terrible plate discipline and on-base ability but still a very underrated player.
so basically he can’t take a walk? so cant a lot of other guys. he can still hit for power and is a huge run producer in that lineup, and its not like he’s a 3 outcomes guy. his SO rate isnt really all that high in this era and he’s generally good for a .270 or better AVG.
Batting average doesn’t matter. Low obp corner outfielders with some pop are a dime a dozen these days and he is overpaid
I would agree if he were a RHH, but southpaws with power a little harder to find.
I disagree due to the salary and years left-
I also dont think the Twins view him as highly either..
They were low key trying to trade him for value last year to no avail……
His game would have played a lot better in 2010 than 2020,,,, hes an easy leave off for me
Team control shouldn’t influence a team’s decision–especially for one contending.
You cant be serious? Outside of cost theres not a stronger driving force than team control in all the land
Not to mention this is how teams like Minnesota survive with the big boys
Care to elaborate ?
You can’t be serious.
Teams don’t voluntarily throw away talent that they depend on and especially not while they’re contending. It’s one thing if it was a bad contract, or someone expensive that could be easily replaced, but that’s not the case.
The goal isn’t to rebuild, it’s to maintain. There’s a reason teams acquire players with a season, or even a half season of control.
But they wouldnt be throwing “away” talent-
With a non tender next year they save 10 mill- That 10 mill can go to pitching in a presumably buyers market with Covid lowering overall salaries –
By saying “throw ” away your not painting the picture very well….. and this all comes on the back of a 2 War corner OF whoes just warming the seat for Alex Kiriloff who absolutely rakes and is dirt cheap……
The days of the name on the back of your jersey buying you security are over. Its all about the numbers and Rosarios just dont add up
You don’t seem to appreciate the value he brings. That has a price, and at the very least, it’s tradeable.
Let me walk or get snatched and you would be throwing something away.
By the way, Kirilloff isn’t likely going to see much or any time in the outfield. They’ve already moved him to 1B.
*Him walk…
My value isn’t in question.
Ummmmm. Check the corner outfield they got coming. Eddie shouldn’t be back next year and in a non corona season he’d be traded by all star.
They have given him reps at 1B, he still saw more time in the outfield. Kirilloff is the eventual Eddie replacement.
Why would people vote for a backup catcher, Astudillo is a fun player, but easily replaced.
he can play litteraly anywhere but CF and SS, can hit like no one else in this era of baseball, and is such a fan favorite. i cant see leaving him exposed, even with the talent they may lose.
His OPS is under .700, that’s subpar performance, and just cause they put at a position doesn’t mean he is good at it.
he also dealt with injuries and didnt spend even all of his healthy time in the Majors. i don’t think last year is a good estimator of his general ability as a ML player.
He is not a good hitter. He can make contact like few other players but that is often very weak contact.
He ranked 425th in average exit velocity and 454th in barrel%. As impressive as making contact on a pitch 2 feet out of the strike zone is, he would be much better off taking walks and swinging at strikes. He simply cannot take a pitch.
Is it really that easy to replace a guy who’s impossible to strike out? The guy grinds out at bats and makes the pitcher work so what if he doesn’t hit home runs there’s a lot more to the game
I know it’s Spring Training, but he went 7/26 with no walks and no extra base hits this spring.
He only struck out once, but is it really worth it if you’re not walking or hitting for any kind of power?
Look at his minor league numbers. 349 on base and a 419 slugging… in ten years. He hit 319 and walked more than he struck out, but that’s an average at best line, besides his average and walk-k ratio. Plate awareness and discipline is great, but he’s not walking, stealing bases, or hitting for power. His game would fit great 40 years ago, not now.
The guy literally has to hit 320 to be a plus on offense. If he hits 270 we’re talking a 300 on base and a 350ish slugging. That’s awful.
But he doesn’t strike out, so he’s amazing I guess.
my guys are La Tortuga, Smeltzer, Littel, and Rosario. pains me to leave some of those arms exposed, but those 4 seem most important to protect for me.
whoops littell
I think they end up trading Rosario for pitching.
That’s another reason you protect him. A team like Cleveland could be a fit if they decided to stick with Cave or Wade.
yeah i just cant see them exposing Rosario for this reason. its one thing to not keep him, but in the event of an expansion draft you lose him for nothing. Rosario can probably get you a better return than whoever would otherwise be protected. and if you keep him until after you only use 1 spot, whereas trading him prior may require using several.
They tried to trade him this off-season per reports and nobody wanted for anything of any value. He’s a expensive and expendable, Cave will produce similar costs less and more years of control. And don’t even get me started on la tortuga fun player root for but shouldn’t be on this teams roster (without it expanded massively) if they are a true World Series contender.
Rosario is one of the easiest selections I’ve made in this series of articles.
This new poll format is brutal on the app.
Did you use the direct link? That worked fine for me with an iPhone. The results link isn’t great, but it’s pretty much fine if you rotate to landscape.
Cave is as good, if not better than Rosario while being much cheaper. I chose Cave, Littell, Duffey, and then flipped a coin between stashak & dobnak (chose stashak). Twins need all the pitching they can get. Rosario is a fun competitor, but expendable on the current roster.
I wanted to choose La Tortuga as a meme, but I instead chose this
Rosario
Dobnak
Smeltzer
Duffey
Rosario and Duffey are obvious IMO, I think Duffey will be a valuable asset out of the pen, and Rosario just good power, and overall skills. Dobnak and Smeltzer are both fairly good, but the Twins need pitching, so I think keeping them is smart too.
Rosario is an easy leave off imo-
2 years left only, not cheap whatsover
5 yr career = Ops sub 800 / 309 obp!
Has over a 2.5 War once in career
Hes just not that good for close to 20 mill for 2 more yrs (arb est) and the franchise already has tryed to deal him on the low-down-
Minny has Bux/Kep locked up for a long time and help in the minors soon (Kiriloff and Larnach)
They can use the 20 mill much better over the next 2 yrs at a much more position of need
Really only one year left for Rosario since this season is what it is. I would much rather protect a long term piece.
I appreciate MLBTR writers’ creativity in finding content during this time, but unless there’s specific talk of an expansion draft, this seems so speculative as to make it not worth discussing.
A series of articles examining upcoming free agents, and how a half season might impact their choice next year, or about veterans without teams who might find work with a universal DH this season, might be a better option.
We’re already doing that other stuff, and interest in this has been good. So…it is worth discussing.
Not sure why everyone keeps saying Rosario. Love him, but his defensive value has gone down each season and considering the fact that they have 2 or 3 potential replacements for him very close to the majors… Just doesn’t make any sense to me. Duffey, Dobnak, Alcala, Astudillo
Its probably just the biggest name they recognize –
For sure though Rosario wouldn’t be on the Twins own list we know that mostly due to the 20 mill owed over next 2 yrs
you gotta pay for talent, and if you are contending like the Twins are its hard to replace a guy like Rosario even with his warts.
Id argue they got 3 guys close to league min who are knocking on that door right now in Cave Kirilloff Larnach-
I mean the bar is 2 War…..
Do I non-tender Rosario for 7.75 mill this year……..No…….but do I expose a guy (cheaper) with more control years at his expense???…. No way, and that is the question here…..
Rosario will be 10 mill next year in his last year until free agency………. that will be able to buy a lot of quality inns on the “new” market 2021 (much bigger need than a 2 war corner OF)
I wouldnt even rule out a 2021 non-tender at all right now if he doesnt show positive signs this half year, id actually say hes in prove it mode 2020 to even get the tender 2021 at this point
Agreed. Twins have a very manageable payroll and are trying to win a WS in 2020. They are not in a position to just give away Rosario, especially for the low-upside likes of Astudillo.
I’m going all pitching simply because the Twins have the offense to make up for whatever they lose, and were in a horrible position pitching wise before they resigned Odo and made the Homer Bailey signing and whoever else they signed.
So that they don’t end up having to fill out a whole rotation via free agency, I’m taking:
Smeltzer
Dobnak
Littell
Duffey
I’m going to assume the expansion team either chooses Rosario or Cave, so at the very least the Twins will be keeping one. And they will be able to plug Alex Kiriloff very soon, so not a big deal. Keep the pitching.
Nice post!
Also dont forget Larnach
I bet they hope Rosario gets taken and they get back Cave in this theoretical sitch as well
Thank you, and yes true. And I guess you can make the argument of taking Stashak over Littell. Either one I’d go with over Rosario/Cave
Most def- Yea Id go all 4 pitchers as well-
Minny is amazing from a ledger point of view on offense –
Control Yrs left in ( )
C-
Garver- (4)
Asudillo (5)
INF-
Sano (4)
Arraez (6)
Polanco (5)
Donny (4 or 5)
Royce Lewis (Minors)
OF-
Kep (5)
Bux (3)
Rosario (2)
Cave (5)
Kiriloff (Minors)
Larnach (Minors)
The pitching still leaves a lot to be desired long term, but theres not another team that has this much offense in the tank the next 5 years …..its not even really close …..and its Cheap!
Rosario and his tax bracket would not be missed, very interested to see how the money gets spent the next couple of years….as you know its a lot harder to burden the payrolls than keep them clean…. See Philly Sd for upstarts
*easier* to burden payrolls than keep clean
Yes the Twins offense is killer. Cruz will retire soon but Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff are going to be nice. Money should be allocated at pitching. They remind me of the 2015-2016 Cubs.
Good comp indeed
I m not that familiar with the Twins FO but they put off the vibe of a very well run franchise that plans on running more of a LAD attack at this (longevity) than the Cubs “All In’ approach moving forward-
I could see an impressive 6 or 7 Division crowns this decade if the divisions all stay intact-
Def an interesting org to watch in the 2020’s, as a Nl fan mostly, Ive kind of adopted them as my AL team, Donny’s going to have the key to the city one day soon
Duffey Dobanak Smeltz are 100%
Can go any direction not Rosario for the 4th …I think they would love to drop that salary for for free if possible
if they thought he wasnt worth the money they wouldn’t have tendered him a contract
We shall cross that bridge next year when he gets to double digits AAV – I dont think he feels as safe as you do about it I’ll tell ya that.
Reasons why I would have tendered this year would be to season Kirilloff Larnach Cave …..they will be fully able to take the job if we get a full 2021 right out the gates…. Kirilloff may have been a better answer down the stretch 2019 ////by 2021 its Go time here
I would have tendered Rosario at 7.75 this yr (especially be4 C-19) but thats not the argument here-
Gimme your odds on Rosario being on the 2021 Twins opening day 40 man roster? Id say 50/50 with his 80 game (?) performance to come being the deciding factor
Although totally far-fetched, this is a good topic that has generated much comment and discussion, so MLBTR deserves a “Good job” . . .
As for the discussion itself, this reminds me of the late 1960’s, when the Yankees were waiting for the arrival of Frank Tepedino, Steve Whitaker and Thad Tillotson, thinking those guys would be the saviors of the team.
Do White Sox fans really think a bunch of tomato cans are going to make winners of them??? . . .
I’m not sure why they locked Pineda and not Rosario or Rogers, seems like both are more valuable to the franchise.
My thought is that they just signed Pineda as a FA and clearly would see him as part of their 2021 rotation, which is thin given other free agents.
As a fairly expendable 1-2 WAR corner OF who would have one year of control remaining, I could see leaving Rosario exposed.
Rogers was put on the protected list.
Astudillo is the perfect player for a new expansion team. Super versatile and a great draw for fans
Rosario – he’s a starting caliber player on a playoff team. Also a big part of the clubhouse.
Duffey – valuable bullpen piece even though I think he’s not as good as his stats.
Alaca – I like his potential. Don’t let him slip away.
Thorpe – best of the AAAA type pitchers (Dobnak, Littell, etc). Has some upside and could thrive in long relief, spot start role.
When could an expansion draft actually occur?
Who are all these people protecting Duffey? Is this an elaborate troll job?
I’m not a fan of protecting relievers, but given the other options, I would protect Duffey. The dude had a great 2019 season. Many people think he finally put it together. He’s definitely one of the top 5 players on this list. I don’t see how you can even consider this being a troll job, unless you yourself are trolling.
Alcala! Gotta keep that potential.
Duffey! Been there long enough and has improved. He deserves it.
Rosario! He’s had some rough times. But give the guy a break.
4th is a fight. I’d almost want to just keep bullpen..Littell?
Byron Buxton sucks until he starts hitting, and therefore should not be protected
Its hard to see an expansion team wanting Rosario for only 1 full season and paying about 10M for it. I would not protect him and we probably keep him.
An expansion team would not be very competitive right out of the gates. In 1998 both teams finished 5th in their division with 40-41 winning%. They might take someone like Rosario to appear better but it would be wasted resources in a losing season. They should not be selecting players with the sole purpose of winning year 1.