We know the 2020 Major League Baseball draft is going to be unconventional, an event that will last a mere five rounds compared to the 40 we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. Regardless, the team with the No. 1 overall pick – Detroit – is in the best position to land a future superstar. But how many recent top choices have actually panned out? Let’s start in the 1990s, and you can be the judge…
1990: Chipper Jones, Braves:
- What a success. The former third baseman/outfielder is now a Hall of Famer after spending his entire career with the Braves from 1993-2012. In his first full season, 1995, Jones helped the Braves to their most recent World Series title. Overall, Jones slashed .303/.401/.529 with 468 home runs, 150 stolen bases and 84.6 fWAR, and made eight All-Star teams.
1991: Brien Taylor, Yankees:
- This couldn’t have gone much worse, as former FanGraphs writer Mike Axisa noted back in 2012. Off-field problems helped prevent the left-handed Taylor from ever taking a major league mound. He’s one of just four No. 1 picks to never get to the league.
1992: Phil Nevin, Astros:
- Nevin carved out a decent career as a member of several teams from 1995-2006, during which he hit .270/.343/.472 with 208 home runs and 15.2 fWAR, but made little impact with the Astros. They traded him to the Tigers for righty Mike Henneman in 2006. Nevin may be best known as the player the Astros chose five picks before Derek Jeter. Then-Astros scout Hal Newhouser was so insistent Houston should pick Jeter that he quit his job when it didn’t happen.
1993: Alex Rodriguez, Mariners:
- Good work, Seattle. Rodriguez didn’t last that long with the Mariners (1994-2000), but he made four All-Star teams and batted .309/.374/.561 with 189 homers, 133 steals and 35.0 fWAR during that span. You can’t argue with those results, nor do his next teams – the Rangers or Yankees – regret the numbers he turned in later in his career. Peformance-enhancing drug issues have made the ex-shortstop/third baaseman a polarizing figure, however.
1994: Paul Wilson, Mets:
- Wilson did pitch in the majors, but he only tossed 149 innings with the Mets (all in 1996) and didn’t log a single frame in the bigs from 1997-99. He did amass almost 800 more innings between the Rays and Reds from 2000-05, but didn’t exactly wow with a lifetime 4.86 ERA.
1995: Darin Erstad, Angels:
- The former Nebraska punter won three Gold Glovees, made two All-Star teams and helped the Angels to their lone World Series title in 2002. Erstad – an outfielder/first baseman – finished his career in 2009 as a .282/.336/.407 hitter with 124 homers, 179 steals and 28.5 fWAR.
1996: Kris Benson, Pirates:
- He was never an ace, but the righty had a reasonably productive career, finishing with a 4.42 ERA and 14.8 fWAR in a combined 206 games with the Pirates, Mets, Orioles, Rangers and Diamondbacks from 1999-2010.
1997: Matt Anderson, Tigers:
- Four of the top five picks in this draft (J.D. Drew, Troy Glaus, Jason Grilli and Vernon Wells) became All-Stars. The lone exception was Anderson, a righty who only produced 0.5 fWAR in 256 2/3 innings between the Tigers and Rockies from 1998-2005.
1998: Pat Burrell, Phillies:
- Burrell wasn’t a superstar, but he had a solid career, winding up with a .253/.361/.472 line, 292 HRs and 19.0 fWAR among the Phillies, Rays and Giants from 2000-11. He won two World Series – one with the Phils and another with the Giants.
1999: Josh Hamilton, Rays:
- Hamilton’s off-field troubles were well-documented during his career, and he never played for the Rays as a result. They left Hamilton unprotected in the 2005 Rule 5 Draft, and the Cubs selected him before trading him to the Reds. Hamilton thrived in Cincinnati in 2007 before the team traded him to the Rangers in a deal that sent righty Edinson Volquez to the Reds. That proved to be a steal for the Rangers, with whom Hamilton was a five-time All-Star, an AL MVP winner and someone who helped them to two pennants. He ended his career in 2015 with the Rangers (after a big-money stint with the Angels) as a .290/.349/.516 hitter with 200 HRs and 27.9 fWAR, making him one of the most successful performers on this list.
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This is a mixed bag, isn’t it? Jones is in Cooperstown. A-Rod’s production could put him there, but he may never get enough support because of the PED questions. Nevin, Erstad, Benson, Burrell and Hamilton had respectable careers in their own right, while Taylor, Wilson and Anderson did little to nothing at the MLB level.
Matt Anderson threw 100 plus but could never get over the hump….too bad….other than that the lost had several good players
Who would use the #1 overall pick on a reliever!?! Randy Smith, the worst GM in the history of American sports!
If I remember right they wanted to go cheap.
Some of these draft picks were all about the ability to sign the player
JD Drew who was drafted in the Top 5 that year didn’t sign. Everyone knew Boras was going to ask for a huge contract.
Called Drew the next Mantle.
All of this is the reason Tigers didn’t draft him and JD Drew was hated in Philadelphia
Drew didn’t sign
Vernon Wells had a football and baseball scholarship to Texas he was using to demand money
I am not familiar on why they skipped the other two.
Troy Glaus signed for the same amount as Anderson so sign-ability wasn’t the primary issue. 100 mph is common now but much rarer then. Randy was enamored and under the impression the he needed a closer. Stupid pick then and now. Randy loved overworked Rice arms that inevitably never worked out.
Pat the Bat only won one world series title in San Francisco. He did win two world series but his first one was with the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies.
It says that I’m assuming it didn’t say that till the writer read your comment.
Yeah they corrected it. Those things happen. I’m just glad that they’re still putting out content. Thanks Connor!
it certainly aint an exact scinece, that’s for sure
The baseball draft is more of a crapshoot than any other major sport. There are as many HOFers who were #1 picks as there are who have never reached the majors (and were drafted quite a while ago). I think scouting has gotten better in recent years, but there will always be busts and huge surprises.
I actually think there’s four #1 overall picks to never reach the majors while only two are in Cooperstown.
Three made the HOF: Baines: (1977), Griffey Jr. (1987) and Jones (1990).
So who is the next HOFer Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper?
I think Mauer gets in. After that, I’d assume Harper will have impressive career numbers. Strasburg and Price both have a chance depending on how the back nine off their careers pan out. González may stay on the ballot a few years but won’t get anywhere near enough votes.
At this point, Mauer is the only one on that list that jumps out as a legit HOF candidate. Mainly, because all of the bold ink on his stat sheet happened while he was a catcher. Now let’s talk Andrelton Simmons.
Simba wasn’t a #1 overall pick. Hell he wasn’t even a 1st round pick.
Perhaps that’s one reason baseball has gotten younger. It would be nice to be able to plug that player you just drafted right into a position of need. But that’s left for the NFL and the NBA. Then theory, MLB could get so young that they could do that while still having a minor league system, because some players will still take longer to develop than others.
When Brien Taylor was drafted, his hometown renamed the street he grew up on after him. After his dreams of big league stardom were thwarted he had to return there, in disgrace, to the street that now bore his name.
Xabial give us some more of your retarded hot takes
That’s an offensive word to you. And if you don’t think it is, you need to ask around. Cretin.
Use*
What does Xabial mean. Sounds like some game of thrones crap
I used it on purpose to trigger you. Fattie!!!
*gay
What makes the comment homosexual?
the jerk store called, they’re running out of you
Oh boy we got us a funny one
15 years in the Iso cubes
you’re such a toxic person. please go back to Xbox live.
Well you are worthless. That’s for sure.
Parents must be proud you’re spending your time productively in their basement trying to trigger random people on the internet with bad words.
You’re going places. Not college, a trade school, or anywhere useful. But you’re definitely going places.
Here’s a fun science experiment for you. Stick a fork in an outlet. Time yourself how long you can hold it in there.
Xabial was nowhere as bad as Casey’s Partner.
Ugh so Xiable has returned.
Anyone else think that Dynamite and Worthless are the same person? They don’t get enough attention so they try to create stupid arguments on every article just to gain some sort of human interaction…
What i find funny, is Xabial, months after disappearing or being banned is still a topic. That guy took “loser” to epic levels….almost award worthy.
Phil Nevin, Cal State Fullerton Titans! Golden Spike winner!
ARod had PED questions? I think those questions were all answered, he used them and it’s been proven and admitted.
I think that statement was reflecting on the question of how much PEDs affected his peformance
The Astros passed on Jeter in favor of Nevin and the Yankees almost blocked him from the big league roster in favor of Felix Fermin (trading away Mariano Rivera in the process). Its incredible how different things could have been.
Would Jeter have been a journeyman instead of a HOF’er?.
If Wilson/Isringhausen/Pulsipher actually worked out would the Mets have challenged the Braves for NL dominance?
If the Yankees had taken anyone over Brien Taylor in the ’91 draft (they passed over some solid players like Cliff Floyd, Dmitri Young, Joey Hamilton, and some kid from the Bronx named Manny Ramirez) would any of those players careers turned out better?, worse?. Would they have been part of the Yankee dynasty of the ’90s?, would there have been a dynasty?.
So many variables
If Ifs and buts were candy and nuts we’d all have a Merry Christmas.
Come for the conversation eh?
Haha solid Slammin Salmon reference!
if Jeter hadnt gotten a shot it would have been all fine, as they would soon get the legendary Garrison Lassiter into the pipeline.
I think Jeter would still be in the Hall. 3K hits is one of the major milestones lots of voters look at and he was never tied to PEDs. His defense is extremely over-rated, and the bright lights of NYC helped his career a ton, but even if he’d gone to a small market team, I think he’d have been a perennial All-Star. There wouldn’t be the titles or the talk of unanimous selection, but he’d have gotten in.
Phil Nevin was given a chance but couldn’t do anything.
Astros traded Ken Caminiti so Nevin could have the position.
Really set the Astros back a little.
Put Jeter in there and the Astros take off in 96 and 97.
It is all what ifs.
Even have Nevin perform how he did later in his career
Astros also picked Richard Hidalgo to protect over Bobby Abreu in the 1997 expansion draft
Put Abreu and Jeter on those Astros teams.
Even then the Astros still had a solid run from 96-2005
They just gave away too much talent and missed out on winning big
Nevin was also traded to the Angels in 1998 and struggled for playing time in a deep lineup. He was a catcher at the time and it was tough to break in with Darin Erstad moved to 1B because of a crowded OF. Plus, they signed Dave Hollins to play 3B the year before, and he was very productive for them when healthy. But then Troy Glaus got called up. For some reason, the Angels were invested in Matt Walbeck as their primary catcher. So the Halos made a dumb trade after signing Mo Vaughn, where they dealt Nevin to the Padres for a minor leaguer and Andy Sheets. Then, Nevin took off. The Angels could’ve used Nevin’s bat in 1999. But then, Bengie Molina got called up that year. The point is that Nevin was blocked a lot early in his career. Even with the Astros in his rookie season, he only played 3B, but Dave Magadan was hitting over .300 there.
It seemed like the Mets were trying to duplicate the Gooden/Cone/Darling combo because it brought them a championship and they were so close to becoming a dynasty before off the field issues took over. Having a trio like they did in the 80’s doesn’t happen very often for any franchise.
Kris benson might be more known for that bat shi….crazy wife he had.
Paul Wilson is known for that guy who got his butt kicked by Kyle Farnsworth.
Yeah you don’t marry a stripper. You have fun with them and move on. lol
She’s a piece of work for sure and I remember the Stern interview. Her wikipedia page is one big dramedy.
Didn’t Benson’s wife publicly state, when Benson went to NY, that if he cheated on her she’d bang some of the players or something along that line?
she did. I think she said she’d do the whole team or something.
That was what I was thinking when I read the article
She threaten to have sex with all his teammates.
Don’t think it was at the same time though.
LOL well at least it wasn’t all at the same time, that could hurt a husband’s feelings
Josh Hamilton was unreal in his prime. 2008 home run derby at yankee stadium was magical. I’ll never forget that night. Hitting 4 homers vs the Os was pretty cool too, even if it was vs the Orioles. One of my all time favorite players. That 2011 World Series was straight heartbreaking. Is he a hall of famer?
No. Not by a long shot.
Maybe had he never left Texas and stayed clean and healthy he would still be playing right now and we would see where his numbers are but for what he did do is Hall OF Very Good, not Hall Of Fame
Not a hall of famer… he only had 2 truly great seasons and 2 more very good ones
No way. He had the talent to be, but he couldn’t keep clean. It’s a shame, really.
hyraz re0u6]9DKLJ W jner? He changed his diet just before he joined the Angels. A real hotshot thought he knew something. Screwed his carrer, home life, and name. Stupid diet for a ballplayer. Juices LOL.
No on hall of fame but yes he was great for a good run. No telling how much drugs derailed him. He missed time because of it and hard to know when his mind was right and when it wasn’t. Even though he had a relapse later in his career I see his turn around as admirable. Seeing him and Pujols in the WS it was almost like a one on one in basketball(although Freese stole the show in clutch moments). Should’ve resigned with Texas with the support system for him firmly in place. If he struggled he had a much longer leash there. Great guy though addiction can bite you at any time if you let your guard down
Ughh The Astro’s traded Nevin to the Tigers in 1995….
Lol I read they traded him to the tigers in 06 and spent far too time thinking about if I was miss remembering him being a Padre before I decided to click his name and see he was.
Matt Bush made the major leagues as a No. 1.
So that would leave Taylor, Steve Chilcott and Mark Appel who never made it. 3 instead of 4.
I’m a boring nerd.
Mickey Moniak might not make it. Hasn’t progressed at all and struggled at Double A last season. No power, no steals, no average, or on base.
He’ll make it, but he might not last long. I have faith.
I can’t imagine you are being serious, but just in case absolutely not.
Who’s the fourth #1 pick to never get to the league?
probably referencing Aiken, though given he is technically not retired i think thats a little early to cross off the list.
Other than Chilcott, Taylor, and Appel, I’m assuming they mean Brady Aiken. (two complete flops at one-one for the Trashtros in a row??? Man.) Aiken was said to be “stepping away from baseball” in December but didn’t officially retire. Regardless, he’s not going to make the majors anyway. At least the Trashtros had the foresight to see what was coming with Aiken’s arm problems, and managed to get Alex Bregman as compensation the next year, who can admittedly be one of the best in the game even without trash cans.
Remember all the crap the Astros got for the Aiken stuff?
Was the term “Trashtros” around before? If so, it has a whole new meaning now…
I’m not old enough to remember much about Matt Anderson (I was born in 1998), but why would the most recent #1 overall pick pitch almost his entire pro career in the bullpen?
Did he have injury problems, or did the Tigers really just draft a reliever #1 overall?
He was a starter in college. I’m not sure if the bullpen was their plan or not. His first year in the minors (1998), he pitched exclusively and brilliantly out of the bullpen. In 1999, for some reason, he got 4 starts in AAA Toledo (out of 24 games played). His WHIP was nearly 2, but he struck out 32 in 38 innings.
He seemed to have been groomed nicely as a reliever in 1998, but those 4 starts make me wonder if that messed him up.
Oh, he was a reliever at least part of his time at Rice. His 14 career saves is/was a school record.
Yes, Randy Smith actually drafted a closer as a 1-1 pick. He was never going to be a starter because he really only had his 100mph fastball. He was impressive in his rookie year but he was a thrower, not a pitcher. Horrible pick and one of the reasons Randy Smith was never a GM again after the Tigers.
Wait a minute. Hamilton was selected in R5 by the Cubs and then traded to the Reds? I was under the impression all along that the Reds took him, and I’m sure most Reds fans thought the same
it was a pre arranged trade. Reds told Cubs who to take
I was scratching my head about that too. In any case, Hamilton hit the hardest ball I’ve ever seen in my life, line drive HR to left that the first baseman probably could’ve jumped and caught if he reacted fast enough. I was seated like 5th row field level, short outfield first base side. It wasn’t natural. His talent was so obvious, I know they needed pitching but I’ll never understand why they traded him.
Erstad had the MLB record for hits with 257 in one season. Until some guy named Ichiro Suzuki re-set the record.
Ummmm….George Sisler had the record of 257 not Erstad.
Erstad’s high was 240 hits and it was the only time in his career he ever even surpassed 200 hits.
what’s a “Gold Glovee”? how about a “Third Baaseman”? how did the Tigers control & Trade Mike Henneman for Phil Nevin a decade after Henneman last pitched in the majors?
No love for Danny Goodwin. They only player drafted 1st overall in the June draft twice.
The problem with the number 1 pick is all the pressure and hype. I’d rather trade it for a lower pick and known talent.
Paul Wilson was good on Cheers
That outfield of Garret Anderson, Erstad, and Tim Salmon was outstanding and a little underrated and overlooked in my opinion. As an M’s fan I got to see them a lot. Anderson was one of my favorite players and a near Hall of Famer. Erstad would run through a wall for his team. And Salmon had a stellar career too. When they won it all in 2002 I was happy for the Angel fans as one of my friends and long time Angel fan from L.A. was in the stands. Maybe some day for us long suffering Mariner faithful.
BPax? No matter how much you praise others does not guarantee good for your team. I have tried. So, maybe not.
Suffering is . . .
How can teams get any kind of read drafting high school kids playing against high school talent or lack there of. College players get a couple more years of experience (depending on how long they stay in school before being drafted) and are playing against better competition, as such teams may get a little better read on how the college players will eventually perform vs high school players.
Mickey Moniak 2016 #1 overal pick by the Plillies went to my son’s high school and got $6.1 million signing bonus. He is in AA now at 20 years old. He may eventually make MLB although I question if his ceiling is much over a 4th outfielder.
If MLB teams cut the number of draft rounds from 40 to 20 maybe more of the kids go to college….resulting in less risky draft for teams, education for kids, less expense for teams…..
NFL and NBA use colleges like a minor league. Maybe it is time for baseball to do the same.
I think the majority of picks in the second round are usually college players and seniors??
I do not think many good high school players pass uo colleger when they are picked between rounds 20-40.
Erstad is under rated. Had he played on the East coast he’d be much higher regarded. He did all the little things, hit behind the runner, all out to win, in addition to the career numbers.