In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it! Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.
So far, we’ve covered the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles. The Reds are up next.
First, we’ll remove free agents Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Freddy Galvis, and Pedro Strop from consideration. Nick Castellanos can opt out of his contract after the 2020 season, but for this exercise we’ll assume he doesn’t. Joey Votto will make the protected list by virtue of his no-trade rights. I’ll protect a total of five players out of the gate:
Joey Votto
Luis Castillo
Eugenio Suarez
Sonny Gray
Nick Senzel
That leaves 10 remaining spots for these 26 players, so you have a lot of flexibility on this one. You can check out Reds contract info here.
Shogo Akiyama
Aristides Aquino
Tucker Barnhart
Alex Blandino
Matt Bowman
Curt Casali
Nick Castellanos
Jose De Leon
Phillip Ervin
Kyle Farmer
Amir Garrett
Raisel Iglesias
Travis Jankowski
Joel Kuhnel
Michael Lorenzen
Tyler Mahle
Wade Miley
Mike Moustakas
Cody Reed
Scott Schebler
Justin Shafer
Lucas Sims
Josh D. Smith
Robert Stephenson
Josh VanMeter
Jesse Winker
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly ten players you think the Reds should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
Shogo
Aquino
Tucker
Ervin
Amir
Rasiel
Mahle
Winker
Nicky C
Moose
Lotta money can be saved with some players but seeing how they just handed these contracts out I think they keep them all-
I really like Phillip Ervin as a platoon bat but if you wanted to take Lorenzen instead no Biggy its a weak side platoon bat which has less value- (Good)Steve Pearce 2.0 is under that hood though imo
Farmar is a nice org player that I think makes it thru due to lack of upside- I think they want him in the end but will have to gamble- Looking back I forgot about Reed id have to get him in somehow, probably Phillip
These are really fun!
Scratch Moose and Nicky C – Gimme Van Meter and Stephenson
Those salaries will pass thru and we will keep the whole gang
I’d keep Lorenzen and Moose and scratch Ervin and Winker.
This was my exact list except I kept VanMeyer over Iglesias. Obviously, I’d eat crow if he bounces back or even if he just doesn’t regress further.
Tyler mahle seems like a lock to me he has good stuff, velo went up from reading articles talking with reds catchers he’s young with upside. Rather have him than Aquino although Aquino seems like a great clubhouse guy
Def, Mahle has the stuff hes just his own worst enemy right now
– You can see when rattled he just trys to throw it by the batter which doesnt work up here
With some seasoning I can potentially see a Sp3 in the future – It wouldnt harm him to watch/talk to Luis Castillo. He had/overcame similar problems just recently. Hes also got Bauers brain to pick these year too.
Mahle is solid in first half just seems to run out of gas as the season moves along.
Michael Lorenzen (Cal State Fullerton Titans), is by far one of the most underrated players today. He is a flat out monster, pitching, hitting, fielding, throwing!
I’d let Iglesias unprotected. I think Stephenson or lorenzen could do the job. Iglesias cost the reds around ten games. He’s horrible in situations that aren’t 9th inning save situations. Mediocre closers are replaceable.
To be fair I dont exactly like the way the coach has used Rasiel in the past-
You wouldnt be gaining any years with Lo and he’s a pretty penny as well next year-
For Steph I can see if you have faith in the long-game- But At only 9.5 I think youd be best off securing Igelsias and trading him before the year- Think at that relatively cheap price you could get 2 Stephs almost- Just my 2 cents
That is the way pens are being used now though. If you can only be successful starting a inning in a save situation I just don’t think you are special.
For the most part closers are overrated
I didnt like the fact they would use him 3-4 days in a row then have him idle for a week-
I have no problem calling on him for 4 or 5 outs, he does need to get better at slamming the door in a jam
They also have played head games with him to the point I thought they should have just capitalized on his value a couple of yrs ago and traded him if there was discontent
I wouldnt feel comfortable with just Lo and Steph on the back end just yet- I actually think Amir could be the guy if they can spin his head on a little tighter this year (even above Rasiel)- Hes straight filthy and is a notch away from a Big career….. But this needs to be communicated very Well….., you remember Rasiel has already left money on the table for the Reds going to the pen, you take away the closer Gig hes now a sub 5 mill a year player on the market. I dont think Cincy did a good job with that
Or Amir Garrett
Lorenzen is a career .235/.279/.432 hitter. Not exactly a “monster”..
Compared to other pitchers, that is a monster. Of course since they are fundamentally changing the game, it doesn’t really matter anymore.
Could you guys find a way to maybe sort the survey results so it is easier to find the Top 5/6/7/8/9/10 players protected? Who cares about alphabetical order when you’re trying to find which players people think should be protected in a faster way? Simmer down the creativity on this one, and keep it simple.
Rios, Rios, Rios, !!!
Winker, Shogo and Aquino all have warts but have too much upside to leave unprotected.
There’s three guys here I could see leaving unprotected if your philosophy is to simply let the team burn down and get cheap. Moose, Iglesias and Castellanos. The Reds don’t seem to be operating in that mode, so I’m assuming they stay.
Garrett and Lorenzen are quality setup guys and those are too valuable to leave unprotected. Although it is notable that going into next year Lorenzen would be in his last arbitration year, so maybe you leave him off if you think you won’t contend in 2021 and won’t get a lot for him in a trade. I still say he’s protected.
Last two spots come down to platoon bats, relievers and Wade Miley. Probably the most important is Tucker Barnhart as the lefty side of the catcher platoon, but they have Tyler Stevenson coming pretty soon. I might argue for DeLeon or Miley as they’re already losing two starters to free agency and might not want to start 2021 with any of their prospects (Santilian, Antone or Guttierez).
None of their platoon guys (VanMeter, Ervin, Casali, Jank, Schebler) excite me that much and a few of them likely will be lost on waivers before the season is up. I’m also not in love with their bullpen outside of that back end.
I feel like if someone wants to take Moose’s contract for the 2021 season, let them. Hes not a player that the freed up 16M/yr cant replace the value provided
This may be true but there is also something to be said about protecting a guy you just locked up. Some players may not look favorably on signing with a team that they believe will unload the contract first chance.
Thats true, but the Marlins, Mariners, Phillies, etc have all done that in recent memory. It happens. Moose is probably the 3rd best 3B on the Reds, and he probably isnt gonna work at 2B for 4 years
…I hope Moose is sweet this year but Gene Suarez is one of the best 3Bs in the league, much less on the Reds.
Lorenzen is the GOAT
what is it that de leon has shown in 23 innings to make organizations like the dodgers and rays give him away? he was a premier prospect, and has destroyed the minors ( a few walks i guess post surgery, but that’s normal), he’s mid twenties and some early shine has worn off, but isn’t there a chance this guy is still a cheap mid rotation arm for a long time?
Both organizations are loaded with talent. Likely he was pressed out
Aquino, Barnhart, Garrett, Iglesias, Lorenzen, Mahle, Moustakas, Reed, Stephenson and Winker
Akiyama, Aquino, Castellanos, Moustakas, Winker are easy calls. I’ll add Mahle and Sims since young SPs are valuable. Lots of good relievers to protect here, sadly can’t protect them all, I’ll pick Stephenson and Garrett. Last spot down to Barnhart or Van Meter, I’ll go with Barnhart since he’s proven to be a decent starting-caliber catcher.
People are forgetting that you are not protecting your best talents per se. Your easy calls include 4 outfielders. If you can only protect 15 players, why would you ever protect 4 outfielders? With 15 players, you should protect your 8 position starters, 3 starting pitchers and 3 relievers, along with 1 wild card. Otherwise, you end up exactly where the Reds are now, square pegs trying to fit into round holes.
Mahle currently sitting 11th below even Stephenson just makes no sense
good gracious…Shogo, Aquino, Casali, De Leon, Ervin, Garrett, Lorenzen, Shafer, Stephenson, and Winkler
If the Reds make the playoffs I’m really gonna have to eat crow. I don’t think they will I think the Cardinals and Cubs standing pat are still a little better but I think they made some strong under the radar moves that others missed out on. Hate em but gotta hand it to my former favorite gm he’s mixing the old way with the new way and built at least a contender for a spot when I thought they were in the worst of spots and in need of a tear down. Nobody seemed to want Sonny Gray but they did and signed him to a good deal. The Bauer deal seemed to be out of nowhere(although i see Bauer as a wild card not a sure thing). They’ve improved up and down that roster hard to tell what could come of it. They didn’t even seem to hurt the farm much. Even if they don’t make the postseason I commend them for not doing what the Astros and Cubs did stripping it down to get picks and save up for future spending. Easier to do for a team like the Cubs. They didn’t call them the love able losers for nothing
I don’t make this comment lightly. Baseball has been a huge part of my life since I was around 10, and I’m 59 now. I’ve agonized through the strikes like most everyone did, wishing we had Our Game back, but this has been different. I don’t care if we lose this season, the American people have more at stake this time. Kyle Lohse spoke out on Twitter about the proposed season this year and that big mouth, entitled spoiled ass Trevor Bauer responded and told him he was out of the game and had no voice in this pay structure between owners and players. He showed his immaturity once again by calling Lohse a “Boomer”. I’ve always been about “The Game”, and not personalities. That comment by Bauer shows a complete disrespect for not only “The Game, but those players who forged the way for today’s players to be paid as they are. Complete and total disrespect for both is what that Jackass displayed. I’ve NEVER liked him for this Reds team, he sucked after the trade anyway. I’d LOVE to see the team just cut that cancer loose…to hell with him.