In case you missed it, we just recapped the careers of every No. 1 pick from the first amateur draft in 1965 through last year (1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s). So now let’s round up how those players fared or, in the cases of those who are still active, have fared since hearing their names called at the top of their respective classes. For simplicity’s sake, we’ll use fWAR as the defining stat. Granted, it’s not the end-all, be all, and it doesn’t account for the postseason, but it does give you a pretty good idea of a player’s performance. Of course, not every first selection has played in the majors. Recent choices like Mickey Moniak (2016), Royce Lewis (2017), Casey Mize (2018) and Adley Rutschman (2019) are trying to work their way up. Meanwhile, Steve Chilcott (1966), Brien Taylor (1991), Mark Appel (2013) and Brady Aiken (2014) never reached the majors.
- Alex Rodriguez, 3B/SS (1993) – 113.7 fWAR
- Chipper Jones, 3B/OF (1990) – 84.6 fWAR
- Ken Griffey Jr., OF (1987) – 77.7 fWAR
- Joe Mauer, C/1B (2001) – 52.5 fWAR
- David Price, SP (2007) – 41.7 fWAR
- Darryl Strawberry, OF (1980) – 41.5 fWAR
- Harold Baines, OF (1977) – 38.4 fWAR
- Justin Upton, OF (2005) – 36.8 fWAR
- Stephen Strasburg, SP (2009) – 36.7 fWAR
- Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (2000) – 36.4 fWAR
- Andy Benes, SP (1988) – 36.2 fWAR
- Bryce Harper, OF (2010) – 35.1 fWAR
- Mike Moore, RHP (1981) – 34.7 fWAR
- B.J. Surhoff, C/INF/OF (1985) – 31.4 fWAR
- Rick Monday, OF (1965) – 31.1 fWAR
- Floyd Bannister, SP (1976) – 30.8 fWAR
- Tim Belcher, RHP (1983) – 30.3 fWAR
- Gerrit Cole, SP (2011) – 28.8 fWAR
- Darin Erstad, 1B/OF (1995) – 28.5 fWAR
- Josh Hamilton, OF (1999) – 27.9 fWAR
- Ben McDonald, SP (1989) – 20.5 fWAR
- Bob Horner, 3B/1B (1978) – 19.5 fWAR
- Pat Burrell, OF (1998) – 19.0 fWAR
- Carlos Correa, SS (2012) – 18.5 fWAR
- Jeff Burroughs, OF (1969) – 18.3 fWAR
- Jeff King, INF (1986) – 17.0 fWAR
- Phil Nevin, C/1B/3B/OF (1992) – 15.2 fWAR
- Kris Benson, SP (1996) – 14.8 fWAR
- Luke Hochevar, SP/RP (2006) – 9.0 fWAR
- Paul Wilson, SP (1984) – 8.7 fWAR
- Ron Blomberg, 1B (1967) – 8.3 fWAR
- Mike Ivie, C/INF/OF (1970) – 7.5 fWAR
- Shawon Dunston, SS (1982) – 7.4 fWAR
- Tim Foli, SS (1968) – 6.1 fWAR
- Tim Beckham, INF/OF (2008) – 4.3 fWAR
- David Clyde, SP (1973) – 4.1 fWAR
- Dansby Swanson, SS (2015) – 3.9 fWAR
- Bill Almon, INF/OF (1974) – 2.5 fWAR
- Matt Bush, SS/RP (2004) – 2.2 fWAR
- Dave Roberts, INF (1972) – 0.6 fWAR
- Matt Anderson, SP (1997) – 0.5 fWAR
- Bryan Bullington, SP (2002) – minus-0.2 fWAR
- Al Chambers, OF (1979) – minus-0.5 fWAR
- Danny Goodwin, 1B (1975) – minus-1.2 fWAR
- Shawn Abner, OF (1984) – minus-1.2 fWAR
- Delmon Young, OF (2003) – minus-1.3 fWAR
Just another reminder of how absurd putting Baines in the HOF is.
Aww hate hate hate
I have seen you trash LeBron and countless good QB’s. You’re username is based around hate. Yet daring to say Baines is not a HOF crosses your line? What a weird hill to die on.
Baines shouldn’t be in the HOF… career WAR under 40… best season was a 4.3 bWAR… yea, he played a long time and was pretty good most of that span, but HOF? I just don’t see it. Never a truly great player over any short period, doesn’t have the career stats to get in.
Same with any election – there are always people you don’t think should get in.
Conversely, for me two of the obvious exceptions are Mickey Lolich and Roger Maris.
Same with any election – you can only blame the electorate… ;0)
Hah
The Baines election was EGREGIOUS!
not sure how that is absurd. chip and the kid are in HOF. Mauer will likely go. a-rod would’ve gone if not for roids. strawberry was on pace to go. so him being behind 4 potential HOFers doesn’t make it absurd
And some people will consider Strasburg to go and he is right there with him.
And while he is way behind the others, it’s easy to forget Carlos Correa is only 25 years old.
Sad people use fWAR and they don’t even understand the stat…
DHs are naturally going to have lower numbers because they don’t play an actual position
The DH debate was settled with Edgar Martinez
Baines didn’t get his credit because he played DH but how people viewed the position has changed. .
David Ortiz was a monster….
His WAR isn’t particularly high for his numbers
Ortiz was exactly half a baseball player, and should be rate as such. He would not have even been considered HOF if he played in a real league like the NL. That stat probably rates him exactly where he needs to be.
that’s just stupid. even if he played in the NL and couldn’t field for heck some would say thats better than playing DH. that, quite frankly is absurd. Hitting always has and always will be more important than fielding, and whether or not you play in the field shouldnt detract from your case. if the DH didnt exist people would probably think Ortiz a much better player which is just stupid logic.
the criteria for going into the HOF in general is stupid, either it represents all of baseball or it doesn’t represent all of baseball – let steroid era guys in with an asterisk, chronicle relievers, DH’s – they are all part of the game and leaving anyone out is just revisionist history.
Clapton — With your logic we should only pay teacher 2/3 of other workers, because they only work 8 month a year…….or they should not be considered full time, because they do not work year round…..DH is a position in baseball and should get the same consideration as any other position. Ortiz was the best DH ever and should be in the HOF when eligible.
MiLB what offs;
Did i mention money at all? Please learn how to use a logical reference because yours was irrelevant.
“Real league”? Having your pitcher take the risk of batting three or four times a game makes the NL the real league? Smh.
Ortiz was more productive in the AL as the designated hitter because his poor defense wasn’t conversely hurting his team. The DH has its special place in the sport, and lucky enough it is in the AL
Bottom line: WAR severely penalizes a DH for being a DH. So if the WAR total is high enough “but he’s a DH” fails as an argument.
The only monster Ortiz was the the size of his head and his need to seek out the camera. He was exactly half a baseball player, and should be rated as such. He would not have even been considered HOF if he played in a real league like the NL. That stat probably rates him exactly where he needs to be.
Or FANTASTIC scouting.
Oops…posted wrong spot.
To be fair, its called the baseball hall of fame- not the “I specialize in 1 thing and completely ignore half the game hall of fame”.
So specialization should negate a player from the Hall?. Maybe they should do a recount on the first ever unanimous choice..
I guess that means no closers in the Hall because they only specialized in pitching in one inning.
I go by how dominant they were and how long their period of dominance lasted. If Babe Ruth had been a DH, he would still belong in the hall because he was just that much better than his peers. He’s not known for his defense and though he was a great pitcher, it’s his hitting that practically everyone thinks of first when they consider him. Likewise, Rivera belongs in the Hall (though not unanimously, IMO) for the same reason. He was the best reliever in the game for an extended period.
So a closer shouldn’t be in the hall?
Most people get that, but baseball is played on the field and in the box. Someone’s inability to play half the game doesn’t give them a pass.
Baines wasn’t a DH only, he played half his games in the field but produced negative value as a defender.
You’re also comparing him to Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz which only highlights Baines unworthiness further. Martinez has a career 68 WAR and Ortiz had a 55, and all Baines could produce in 21 seasons is 38 despite playing the field half his career.
If Ortiz had played 1b his entire career he most likely would’ve gotten negative fielding value and decreased his overall worth, but in some of your eyes, that would’ve made him a better overall player and more acceptable to the HOF? How does that work?
Baines doesn’t compare to Edgar. Baines has under 40 bWAR, Martinez almost 70. Case in point why Baines shouldn’t be in. Martinez is a DH who belongs in the hall. Baines was a good hitting DH with a long, not HOF, career.
Or their numbers would be worse for negative defensive value pulling their overall totals down.
DH doing some of those guys a favor, David Ortiz 100% being one of them.
Because he’s in the top ten with the 7th highest fWAR of any overall #1 pick? I agree he shouldn’t be a HOFer, but not for the “absurd” reason you’re trying to connect to.
Also a reminder on how absurd fWAR is. Jones, ranked ahead of Griffey? In what universe? WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.
fWAR, WAR….dont care the stat, Ortiz is NOT HOF material. Good batter…period. He would NOT be “Ortiz”, an overrated geographical public hero, by playing entire career in NL.
And the fact that ‘hitting is more important than field is NOT absurd. There are trends, and not too long ago, fielding was valued over hitting by nearly all MLB analytic departments. But, to the average moron ESPN fan,glovework and pitching doesnt lead to ratings on Sportscenter, the mecca of sports journalism integrity. Hence, we know why things we quietly changed with the baseball and recent new focus.
fWAR is absolutely not absurd. You’re just looking at it all wrong. Stats are just statistics, not judgement. You use stats to MAKE a judgement. You look at ALL of the stats, make a whole picture of the player, and then make the judgment. You do not pick ONE stat to make the judgement.
^^Another member of the cult of sabermetrics.
Stats aren’t everything. You had to watch him play. A wonderful clutch performer and one of the best hitters ever to come to bat with the bases loaded. Class, dignity, and a distinguished gentleman of the game. It would be absurd to have a Hall of Fame and not have Harold Baines in it.
Stats are important if you understand them…
The issue here is people use stats like WAR and they don’t obviously understand the stat itself.
Hard to make concrete judgements on players by exclusively looking at WAR.
Regarding Baines.
His better season were in his 30’s once he started playing at Camden Yards.
Then the 900 OPS seasons started..
Regarding Ortiz…
Anyone who says he doesn’t belong in the HALL doesn’t understand baseball.
Edgar Martinez opened the door for DHs
Closers were looked at in the same way.
Fingers went in. But Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter opened the door for the rest.
I equate Harold Baines more with Gossage and Sutter.
Baseball changes.
Next could be middle relievers…
Like an Andrew Miller if he continues to pitch at a high level
Yes Baines production went up in Camden Yards, but thats due more to the change in era’s. He started in a dead ball era where the racism of the umpires and the owners would conspire to keep salaries and stats down. Once society opened up his game reached its full expression. If he played today His slash line would be 346/490/615, and his bWAR would be about 8.3 a year.
Ortiz: @LouisanaAsstro: obvious you are a lesser AL fan, an ESPN fan, and dont understand baseball. He IS and WAS a one trick pony. Period. End of discussion.
Actually I believe it was Frank Thomas that opened the door for DHs. And the argument could be made that it was Paul Molitor that opened the door for DHs, it just took a while for anyone to enter.
I have been around the game for 30 years…
I am usually someone who argues against people who make concrete judgements on stats.
Stats often times can be manipulated.
Regarding Frank Thomas and Paul Molitor…
Both played more than half their games at a position.
You do know the DH is pretty much univerisal in baseball now
Travel ball, Little League, High School, College and the Minors.
who TF is Andy Benes and lol he’s ranked higher than Bryce Harper
Benes was a solid pitcher who had a long career
You were not aware of Andy and Alan Benes? Maybe least coaster or maybe just <15yo.
Andy Benes was an All Star pitcher for the Padres and Cardinals primarily for 14 seasons. with a 155-139 3.97 (104 ERA+) in that time span. Harper has only played 8 seasons, He won’t be behind Benes for long.
I remember playing video games and always putting the Benes brothers on my team. Especially Andy. His brother wasn’t nearly as good.
Okay so 2 hall of famers? Mauer might be one. We don’t know yet though
3 Hall of Famers. Chipper, Griffey, and Baines. Plus, A-Rod is going to get in eventually. There is a good chance Mauer gets in too. Of active players. Price is possible with a few more good seasons. Strasburg is on his way if his health maintains. Bryce Harper is as close to a future HOFer as any active player aside from Trout. Gerrit Cole is still rising and now he will have the Yankees bum as well.
So that gets to 9 highly possible HOFers. A lot more 2.
A-Rod will never get in. even if every other PED user does, none of them got suspended for a year or was a much of a repulsive person.
Manny Ramirez was suspended for a year but he just avoided the whole thing and retired.
How is he repulsive? Cheaters like Gaylord Perry and Don Sutton are in the HOF and their cheating had a direct effect on the game they were playing. Druggies like Fergie Jenkins and Orlando Cepeda are in the HOF. Juan Marichal bashed s catcher over the head with a bat. All around jerk Ty Cobb was the 1st member of the Hall.
Take away that one season and Harper isn’t that obvious of a future HOF candidate. He may make it in but folks way overestimate what he’s done so far. He’ll have to improve on what he’s doing now, or continue at this level for a long, long time to make it in, I think.
Well, I agree in principle, but his hype will get him on the first ballot regardless. Much like Jeter.
Harper keeps having “good, not great” seasons…sure not living up to that instant Hall of Famer tag people have placed on him since day 1.
Darryl! Darryl! Darryl!
I still remember one of my first MLB games, it was somewhere around 1998-2000, Bluejays/Yankees @ the “Skydome”. Everybody was chanting Darryl, Darryl , whenever he came to the plate, as an 8-9 year old, I had no idea why but I definitely joined in the action. If memory serves, I believe Billy Koch blew the save that night and the Yankees won. Great times, love this game. Summer without baseball, is not right at all.
I would not have guessed that Chipper had more cumulative WAR than Griffey. Does OF get undervalued in some definitions of WAR? Speaking more subjectively, Chipper produced offensively for a longer period, bit was no where.near the human highlight reel that Ken Jr. was.
CF usually gets more value because of defense.
The Trout vs Miggy debate in 2012
WAR said Trout was a better player even though Miggy won the Triple Crown.
Regarding what hurts Griffey. His 2000s.
Wasn’t as consistent as Chipper.
1990s Griffey was a lot better
2000s Jones vs Griffey wasn’t even close.
Plus Griffey did play some DH that hurts his WAR
He may have won the Triple Crown, but RBI’s and batting average shouldn’t be the deciding factors in an MVP race. Especially when Trout was only .004 BA points behind Miggy, had a higher OBP, was a far better defender at centerfield than Cabrera was at third, and Trout only stepped to the plate 214 times with men on base whereas Cabrera stepped to the plate with men on over 300 times (333).
What should be the deciding factor? Walks? I would rather my best hitters swing the bat, get hits instead of walking. Cabrera had 40 more RBI than Trout.
2013 Trout with runners on base… 296 PA
2013 Cabrera with runners on base… 325 PA
29 more chances and he got 40 more RBI.
2013 Runners in scoring position
Trout 184 PA 68 RBI 10 IBB
Cabrera 204 PA 99 RBI 19 IBB
WAR means nothing
Durf 2012 was the triple crown year Cabrera had 54 more rbi. Trout was leadoff hitter that year. He wouldn’t get rbi chances.
Cabrera wasn’t terrible at third. Considering he was moved there because of Fielder. They did it to get the extra offense in the lineup. I wonder how Trout would have done at 3B?
If you say WAR means nothing, then neither should batting average. OBP carries a significant amount of more weight. Plus we aren’t talking about 2013 here. I’m talking about 2012. If you don’t want to use WAR then don’t. But Trout had a higher OPS+, wRC+, and was 3 times the base runner Cabrera was. Sure Cabrera wasn’t horrible at defense at third base, but still was below average with -4 DRS,-1.6 UZR, and -7.4 range runs. Trout had +19 DRS, 13.9 range runs, and a 10.4 UZR in the outfield.
Cabrera was only .006 behind in obp he led in slugging, ops, batting average, home runs total bases… he was a living video game. This was no fluke season either… he had very good years prior and came up short in the voting. He earned the MVP.
Still an interesting debate even almost 10 years later.
Trout’s WAR was enhanced playing CF.
Similar to Griffey early in his career.
So with the huge defensive WAR # Griffey is still behind Chipper.
A lot of that has to do with Griffey after 2000. Wasn’t the same in Cincinnati.
That’s great that it wasn’t a fluke season for Cabrera, but that has no barring on a single MVP season. But PS+ and wRC+ hold a ton more weight than either total bases, BA, and home run totals. Trout was also better than Cabrera in win percentage added, and offensive win %.
LOL, PS+ and wRC+ win percentage added and offensive win %? Do you have a license to operate that Cherry Picker?
The pitchers feared Cabrera more… He had more intentional walks with Fielder behind him than Trout did with a declining Pujols behind him. 2012 was an MVP season for Cabrera.
In 2012 and 2013, If you want results, choose Cabrera. If you want walks, then pick Trout.
Trout 0 gold gloves, 0 batting titles, 0 home run titles. 0 World championships, 1 post season .083 batting average 3* walks.
You scoff at the use of analytical stats but then use intentional walks to determine who is better? That’s crazy.
I scoff at any one statistic. You have to look at the entirety of the data Triple Crown. 40 doubles, leader in OPS and slugging If you can cherry pick your data, so can I.
Think about it… Trout was intentionally walked 4 times with a .859 OPS hitter behind him. Pitchers took their chances against him. Cabrera had 17 with a .940 OPS hitter behind him.
Griffey’s defense fell off pretty badly after he went to the Reds and started getting hurt. But due to his name value, no manager would take him out of CF. That hurt his total WAR. If he had moved to LF or RF he would be much higher.
Look at Delmon Young. He’s last in WAR. He got some MVP votes. For years he was a decent middle of the lineup guy. He started over 1100 games in the majors and there are players that have higher WAR that played in less than 60 games.
Young> Abner>Chambers>Bullington
WAR is a joke.
Young is better. Abner only played 400 games and was still worth his negative value. Danny Goodwin (the only played drafted number one overall twice and the reason no 1971 player is listed) only played about 250 games. and did nothing to deserve playing 250 more.
Young’s while worth was benefiting from hitting in the middle of the order and collecting RBI’s and a decent average. Once he stopped hitting for average, his whole value went away because he didn’t walk, steps bases, or really hit for good power.
Side note, his brother has my favorite baseball nickname, da meat hook.
A-Rod and Chipper over Junior? Griffey is a better 5 tool player than bother A-Rod and Chipper, as well as having more home runs and is the epitome of the ideal baseball player.
After Griffey left the Mariners he wasn’t the same.
Kingdome helped Griffey as well but even with that I think the injuries are allowing Chipper to have a higher fWAR
Chipper was in that lineup pretty much every day and didn’t have 6-7 years of injuries that Griffey did.
As soon as he went to the Reds his career was never the same .
Braves fan here so maybe a little bias, but I wonder what Chipper’s career would’ve been if he had never scarficed for his team and moved to LF when Vinny Castilla was signed.
If you look at Jones’ career, outside of his torn ACL year, he was pretty much never hurt. They move him to the outfield and within a couple of years his legs are shot and he’s injury prone the rest of his career. Maybe some of that is due to age, but I think most of it is from him moving to the outfield. It’s too bad Castilla was a bust and DeRosa wasn’t good in Atlanta so it really made the move even worse.
As a Mets fan I must say, Larry was one heck of a player.
People love to hate on Arod, but he was one of the greatest talents we have ever seen.
“talent” is not the word id use. his supplier was the one with the talent.
Some guys need steroids to even get to the majors. Some need to excel. ARod was one of the latter. I do think he’d have been very good, probably perennial All-Star level, if he played clean. The roids definitely helped and I disagree with him being “one of the greatest talents we have ever seen,” but it’s not like he was some hack before.
If I were going to use this line on a PED user, I’d use it on Bonds. He was a first-ballot HOFer without steroids. Good BA, walked a lot, good speed, solid (though not GG-worthy) defense, plenty of power – he could do it all. And then he got older, started to slow down, and couldn’t take it. He’ll probably get in eventually, but I think his story is the biggest shame among that generation, with Gooden not being able to stay clean a close second.
Not only did Griffey not have more HR than ARod, he also had less steals and less hits. At his peak, Alex was a better 5-tool talent than Griffey, even though the Kid was one of the best of all time. Personalities aside, Rodriguez had the objectively better career numbers and is one of the best ever to play the game. As much as it pains me to say as a braves fan, Chipper is definitely NOT better than Griffey – but his stats were at a high level for a longer period, and that’s what WAR essentially is, a measure of the culmination of all stats.
How do you ding Chipper because he was more dependable than Griffey? In a conversation of Jones vs. Griffey, that should be a point in his favor.
Griffey got hurt a lot. Really once he left Seattle he as never the same what with all the injuries. Ironically, if Cincinnati had a DH position, Griffey might have fared better there as he could have stayed off that rock hard carpet.
Chipper was a more valuable player than Griffey Jr. over the course of their careers, which is really what you have to judge it on.
Arod is the greatest living Yankee. No contest. Eventually his number will be be retired and when he passes, he’ll be put to rest with the other “Buried Bombers“ in Monument Park.
????
Maybe if he played there his entire career.
Alex Rodriguez takes a backseat to Jeter, Pettitte, Posada and Rivera.
It is Jeter not ARod.
ARod with or without steroids may have been the greatest player the last 25 years but Trout is going to give him a run.
But in regards to the NY Yankees. Isn’t because he played a lot of his years elsewhere
Pettie and Posada were basically replacement players without the steroids. Rivera can’t be considered because he was an above average pitcher who fit very nicely into a specialized role. Smoltz pretty much proved any all -star pitcher can dominate if asked to “ close.”
Jeter’s career is an absolute joke. He did have some great years offensively. However his insistent need to play the glamour position of shortstop cost his team games. If would be like if Cespedes insisted on playing shortstop. He would put up massive numbers for a “shortstop,” but in no way is he qualified to play the position adequately. Jeter stayed there for the endorsements and the prestige. Selfish and arrogant; the Latrell Sprewell of baseball.
2 of the top 3 are Mariner’s picks… not bad. Sadly they haven’t had any success in the first round since and actually held on to the player
Um – wrong Dave Roberts in the link – unless he was drafted within a few weeks of birth…
Which takes you to the illogical conclusion of drafting in advance of conception.
So probably just the wrong Dave then?
Two guys who belong in the HOF are Fred McGriff and Al Oliver. For a while, there weren’t many hitters feared more than The Crime Dog. Surprised he moved around as much as he did.
Al Oliver was simply a great hitter. Give him five at bats and he’d hit the ball hard four times. Very underrated player IMHO.
Lou, big Pirate fan here and you are right; Oliver was a great hitter. However I would humbly submit that 2 Bucs ahead of Scoop in line for the HOF are the Cobra and Danny Murtaugh.
Parker definitely a HOFer. Should have played his entire career in Pittsburgh like Roberto.
Pity you guys can’t get a new owner who will spend some cheese, or a new GM who actually can recognize talent and find a way to keep it. Lots of ex-Pirates in MLB and they are doing very well.
Been to a number of MLB parks over the years. PNC has undoubtedly the best skyline view of anybody. Plus, I liked walking over that bridge. Didn’t have to, but I wanted to do it.
Yes on Oliver. Is McGriff even the best first basman not in the Hall? He has fewer career fWAR than Jon Olerud, Keith Hernandez and Darrell Evans. I also wonder if he is more deserving than Gil Hodges, Don Mattingly. Todd Helton, and Steve Garvey.
Unfortunately for Crime Dog, he was a 1B. If he had been a 3B he’d already be a HOFer. His numbers, and those of others, should dictate HOF worthiness and not get compromised because there are more 1B with good numbers than, say, 2B or SS. If Rizzuto, Maz, and Pee Wee Reese are in the HOF, Crime Dog should be, as well. Shouldn’t even be an argument about Al Oliver, One of the best pure hitters of all time. Suppose Oliver had played his entire career as a Yankee? Like Crime Dog, he would have been a HOFer years ago.
I think fWAR is vastly underrating some of these guys. Shawon Dunston in particular. Anybody that watched both Mike Ivie and Shawon Dunston play would not think Ivie was better. It was not even close. I’d put Dunston over several of these guys, probably above Jeff King or so. Dunston was better than King.
I would also say that fWAR is overrating a couple of these guys too. Jeff King is one, but the one that really stands out to me is Mike Moore. Moore had a couple of really good years with Oakland and 1 with Seattle, but for the most part he was just an average starting pitcher at best. He was definitely a workhorse, but that just means he pitched a lot, not that he was good. If you look at his career numbers, he led the league for a season in 11 categories. Those categories are games started (4), losses (2), hits allowed (2), ER allowed (1), walks (1), and wild pitches (1). I wouldn’t put him ahead of the 3 starters after him in Bannister, Belcher, and Cole. I’m not even sure I would rank him ahead of Ben McDonald.
Dunston averaged about 15 unintentional Walks per season. That’s why his WAR is low.
As for Moore, an innings eater with average results over nine seasons is a valuable player.
Drawing walks used to be slightly underrated, but now they are VASTLY overrated. People act as if walks are the best thing you can do at the plate.
Moore was not average, he was below average (95 ERA+). Seattle just kept sending him out because they didn’t have anyone better.
Didn’t have anyone better? Isn’t that the meaning behind a low WAR? There are players that can do better.
Yet Moore was a 101+ ERA over his last five seasons with the M’s, got a nice free agent contract with the A’s helping them to their last WS championship. He was a very good pitcher from 1985-1989.
The nine seasons of average innings eating was 103+ ERA and that got him even a better contract with the Tigers.
And when Dunston was not taking a walk, he was averaging an out 73% of the time.
Okay, they didn’t have anyone they thought was better. And he didn’t have a WAR for them to look at because WAR didn’t exist then.
I think part of the reason Dunston was undervalued was his perceived hitting profile. People saw him as a SS and only a SS. If he’d been allowed to transition to another IF position earlier, rather than to the OF (unsuccessfully) later, he may have better blossomed.
A few hours ago I was actually reading about David Clyde, unrelated to this article here. He was picked two spots ahead of Hall of Famer Robin Yount and three spots before another one in Dave Winfield (the latter of which was what sent me down a rabbit hole leading me to Clyde). If anyone is looking for an interesting Wiki page, I’d highly recommend Clyde’s. Total bummer what happened to his career basically right out of the gates and how it’s a neat chapter in the Rangers’ franchise as a whole. Obviously we’ll never know what he could’ve been if he was managed better, but he was pegged as “the next Sandy Koufax” when he was drafted.
yeah man, its a sad story but a good read
Cheers for the tip @bluejays92/Tom 84
What a ridiculous waste of an absolute top notch talent. Really really sad.
cheers from across the pond!
Thanks Tom, you too. Take care.
Cheers bluejayfan. Not read that one, but remember his sad tale and a young ranger’s franchise desperately trying to gain relevance and fan support in those early days rushing a highly touted and then super young (18) HS arm to the big leagues who flat out wasn’t ready. He’s I think the last guy this happened to. It ruined his career, but do remember one game that was on a saturday afternoon telecast am pretty sure of him back then with him and think some clips of him are floating around still with Joe garagiolla and Tony Kubek narrating this game of his.
Few other names on this list.. I remember Tom Goodwin as a decent utility type for several seasons way back and then there was delmon young whose poor attitude and STG mentality was his problem.
Wow, remember all the hype about how great Mark Appel was going to be, i am shocked he never made it too the bigs.
The baseball draft is a crapshoot. We’ve had 55 years of the draft. Only 6 times has each of the top 10 picks made it to the majors. Only 3 #1 picks have so far made the HoF and one of them (Baines, of course) is largely considered unworthy of the honor. Meanwhile, there are guys like Buehrle, Keith Hernandez, Smoltz, Piazza, Pujols, Sandberg, and more who were picked 400th or worse. I feel scouting has gotten a little better in recent years, but you still just don’t know.
I tried to make this point on an Orioles thread which was extolling the benefits of tanking and I practically got run off the page.
It all depends on your scouting department. The Astros made great use of tanking, as did the Cubs. The Orioles made a great pick (it seems so far) in Rutschmann, but need several more. What I will say is that you at least have more options picking earlier. You’re not guaranteed to get the best player, but if you don’t, at least it’s your fault then.
Mark Apel’s head just wasn’t into it. I was excited when he was part of a trade that landed him in Philly. Had a poor year at AAA, and the following spring, he said he was leaving the game. Sort of crazy for a big time prospect who had a lot of success in college.
I guess he’s still on hiatus. Didn’t read anything about him showing up at Phillies spring training this year.
It’s kind of dumb to rank players based on their WAR when they are still playing.
I mean you are “ranking” guys who still have a lot of years left to play (Harper, Strasburg, Cole, Correa).
As far as the Hall of Fame, Harper and Strasburg have the trajectory. People can say what they want about Harper but you can pretty much lock him for career WAR over 60. Strasburg always carries an injury risk but I’m fairly confident he will reach a 50 career WAR.
I was about to say almost exactly this. My first thought was they’d try to rank active players with some sort of guess as to where they’d end up in WAR, which doesn’t even tell the whole story (bias toward CF, no calculation of high-leverage situations, etc.). Does anyone really think Belcher is a better player than Cole?
Ignoring the last five #1picks, the median is about 18fWAR. Anybody under about 15 should be considered a disappointment.
Surprising that Dunston ranks so low but a .296OBP hurts him and he couldn’t play SS adequately after he hurt his back.
Pat the bat was a number 1 pick?
Burrell was never appreciated in Philly. Bring up the 2008 WS winner to a Philly fan and the names like Hamels, Utley, Howard, Rollins, Lidge, Werth, Chooch and Victorino roll off their lips. Yet look at Burrell’s numbers in 2008. Aside from a so-so BA (.250), his other stats were great: 33 HR 86 RB 74 Runs 102 BB .367 OBP and a slugging percentage over .500.
Yet, he seems to be the forgotten guy whenever 2008 comes up in conversation.
Which MLB teams have never had a #1 pick? Which ones have had the most #1s?
The Astros, Mets, and Padres have each had 5, with the Rays, Twins, Mariners, and Pirates close behind at 4. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Reds, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies, and Giants have never had the #1 pick.
*I’m including one pick for the Twins when they were the Senators.
the draft didn’t exist when the Twins were the Senators
You’re right. My apologies. That pick should be with the Rangers instead. Forgot that there were two different Senators teams.
wikipedia has a list for that
That’s for just the current Rule 4 draft. If you include the January draft, the special January draft, and the special June draft that all ended in 1986, only the Rockies have not had a #1 pick.
We need a continuation of this series looking at the #1 picks from each of those drafts as well. There weren’t any HOFers picked, but there were some pretty solid players like Dave Kingman, Danny Jackson, and Tim Belcher for the second time. And there were a couple of other interesting picks such as former Padres GM Kevin Towers. Could be an interesting read.
Delmon was a better player than WAR gives him credit for
He had more than his share of injuries, but in full years, he only once had an OPS+ above 100. For his career, he’s slightly below average as a hitter and, while not a nightmare in the field, is definitely a weak link out there. His bWAR is 3.2, which is a little more generous, but he’s still a below average player.
Not really. Outside of one year, he didn’t hit for power. Never walked. Never stole bases. Bad fielder. All he had was a good average and some RBI’s from hitting in the middle of the order for a lot of games. Not really surprising when his OPS+ is so low when he didn’t walk or have much power.
thanks for the reminder the Astros whiffed in two number 1 overall picks in a row.
i mean they essentially got Bregman with their last one
That’s just because MLB started rewarding bad moves. The Astros did not deserve that extra pick. Honestly, the prospects each year are not equally strong. I see no reason why teams drafting high in a projected weak year shouldn’t intentionally not sign someone in order to get a pick the next year in what would likely be a stronger draft. It’s just a ridiculous rule.
I get your point, it is gaming the system a bit. On the flip side though there are legitimate cases where a team drafts a player, wants to sign him, and it falls through. To penalize those teams, and set their rebuild back is a bit harsh. It’s also tough on a fanbase. There’s just no perfect way. Regardless of how many picks you get, you still also have to draft well. I like the the current rules.
If a prospect decides not to sign (which is what happened with Houston) they absolutely deserve to get a compensatory pick in the following year’s draft (which is how they got Bregman). I have no problem with that at all provided that the team made an honest effort to sign the player, which Houston did.
Houston’s pick was not as bad as the one that I was originally thinking of. Arizona picking Barret Loux #6 and then lowballing him and then being rewarded with a bonus pick the next year that became Archie Bradley.
Plus, I am a Rockies fan and Houston’s bonus pick of Alex Bregman should have been Colorado’s, but they got pushed down one. So I am a bit biased there. Brendan Rodgers might be great one day, but Alex Bregman already is great.
Bregman, Arenado and Story in the same infield? Wow! Don’t blame you for being upset. Using Bregman as a 1B would have saved you a lot of cheese, too. Negated the need to give Desmond all that money and all those years(5).
Paul Wilson was the #1 pick in 1994, not in 1984.
Danny Goodwin is the most interesting player on the list.
He was drafted as the number one pick in the first round twice.
He was picked number one in 1971 by the White Sox ,who couldn’t sign him,(he went to Southern University instead) and then by the Angels in 1975.
Pretty sure that will never be duplicated with the money that’s involved now.
If they let guys like Baines in the Hall, then they should let Clemens and Bonds in. If the Hall is intended for the greatest of the greats., you don’t want Bonds standing next to guys like Ruth. But if Baines is there… why not let everyone get a trophy.
They should have a wing just for the greatest players. A Hall of Hall of Fame. Those players should be selected by just one person. A caretaker of the Hall. Someone outside of the game who doesn’t have vested interests in who gets in. A true fan of the game who is impartial and only wants players that best represent the game.
These players have to have played at least 15 years. None of this, “Oh, if he hadn’t been hurt those years, he would have made the 15 year cut off.” That’s BS… he doesn’t belong if he couldn’t play 15 years.
He has to have led the league in multiple categories in multiple years… in other words, he had to be better than the other players he played against. Guys like Mussina and Jeter and Baines and Morris wouldn’t be included… Sure they were good…. this is the Freakin Hall of Hall of Fame!!!
Top 5 Most Famous Harold’s of all time:
5. Harold Baines
4. Harry Styles
3. Harold Miner
2. Harry Houdini
1. Harold Ramis
No Potter?
and David?
Top 5 Harry’s not included on Jessaumodesto’s list, or added by Melchez lol:
5. Harry Hamlin
4. Harry Truman
3. Prince Harry
2. Debbie Harry
1. Harry Caray
Honorable mention: Harry Connick Jr., Harry Anderson, Harry and the Hendersons
I was looking at #2 picks and there is quite a drop in production. Reggie Jackson tops the list at 74 WAR. Verlander is next at 71 WAR. Will Clark 56. JD Drew 45. Senzel .6, Bregman 22 and Bryant 24 will increase, but the rest are pretty meh.
Number 3 picks were interesting in that Robin Yount (1973) was a #3 (77WAR) as was Paul Molitor (1977) (76WAR) for the Brewers topped the list. Longoria was next at 56.
Braves fans, we were very fortunate to have had Chipper Jones. One of baseball’s greatest and played his entire career in Atlanta.
Wow…there is a huge drop in WAR from 1st to 2nd (A-Rod to Chipper) and 3rd to 4th (Griffey Jr. to Mauer)
If my math is correct, the average fWAR of all top picks (besides the most recent 4, in which it’s too soon to tell) is 21.5. Granted, that doesn’t account for former top picks that are still playing (Gerrit Cole will accumulate more WAR, for instance), but it’s a large enough sample size that this still feels right.
So basically, the average first overall pick becomes something resembling Casey Blake.