In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it! Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.
So far, we’ve covered the Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles. The Padres are up next.
We’ll start by removing free agents Garrett Richards, Kirby Yates, and Jurickson Profar from consideration.
Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer will make the list due to their no-trade protection. For this exercise, I’ve also decided to automatically protect any Baseball America Top 100 Prospect to whom they gave a 2020 ETA. That means Adrian Morejon is on the list. Otherwise, I’ve decided to make minor leaguers ineligible for our mock expansion draft. Here’s the full list of 12 Padres I’ll protect out of the gate:
Manny Machado
Eric Hosmer
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Chris Paddack
Adrian Morejon
Tommy Pham
Dinelson Lamet
Joey Lucchesi
Trent Grisham
Drew Pomeranz
Emilio Pagan
Francisco Mejia
That leaves three spots for the following 22 players:
Michel Baez
David Bednar
Ronald Bolanos
Jose Castillo
Franchy Cordero
Zach Davies
Ty France
Greg Garcia
Javy Guerra
Austin Hedges
Pierce Johnson
Andres Munoz
Wil Myers
Josh Naylor
Luis Perdomo
Cal Quantrill
Gerardo Reyes
Craig Stammen
Matt Strahm
Luis Torrens
Breyvic Valera
Trey Wingenter
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly three players you think the Padres should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
Jose Castillo, Michel Baez, and people will probably disagree… but Austin Hedges
Actually… Castillo, Hedges, and Munoz
Hosner blows
Baez, Quantrill, and Naylor. you cant lose any of those three.
I replaced Baez with Castillo, but def the other two. If Castillo is healthy, he’s money
Franchy, Quantrill, Naylor.
I agree with your 3 completely … some teams I struggled to find enough to protect … with the Padres I struggled with who to not protect
totally agree
Teacher, Bill the Cat copied meeeeee!
Baez Castillo Munoz
I can see Naylor if they think the DH will exist post 2020
I know Sd is high on France but I think hes fungible
I know the fans are high on Cal, but I feel the same with him
Hedges has value and probably would be snatched but so goes
Fans don’t like cal. He is a 1st round pick that should have never been a first round pick
Check back in an Hr and see how many people pick Cal- You’ll be surprised… I agree he’s not someone Id care to lose via expansion if I was Sd
I would say a decent number of fans do like Cal, and the front office is definitely still high on him. Still a ton of potential whether its starting or relief. Has a fantastic fastball— just couldn’t hold it together over extended time in the bigs. But boy did he have a hot streak mid-season, even statistically outshining Paddack for a few weeks. But people like you who only memorize MLB’s top 10 draft rankings will never be satisfied. You should try learning to scout on your own 🙂
That’s false. Quantril was a first round talent coming into the draft.
Some mocks had him going after 10 some had him going to the Padres at 8.
Mlb daily dish had him going to the Padres at 24
Bleacher report had him going 24 to the Padres
Mlb,com posted a mock draft had quantril going 8th.
CBS posted a mock draft that had him going 8th overall too.
Quantrill was ranked #22 on MLBPipeline’s draft prospects for 2016. He had an outside chance of still being on the board when the comp picks for Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy came up.
Speak for yourself only, always
Cal is still pretty young and had a few impressive starts last year. There aren’t too many 22 year old pitchers who can come in and own the league right out of the gate. He’d be gone in a heartbeat if left unprotected in an expansion draft.
Baez, Munoz, and Hedges.
I’ve only heard good things about Baez. Munoz is nasty (despite having a setback), I hope he comes back healthy. Hedges is the best defensive catcher in baseball (something an expansion team would love to have), but he helps out those young Padres pitchers so much. He’s an asset to that club.
Realmuto is a better defender
Nope. Better all around catcher sure but defensively it isn’t close.
show me the numbers then. Realmuto was probably better in most. absurd CS%, unparalleled durability, the ability to call a great game, popular with the pitching staff. he’s absolutely better.
Everything you just said was also true for Austin Hedges. Plus there was an article awhile back on the pitchers who have had the most pitches called strikes that were in fact balls. Both were Padres pitchers.
Coincidence?
yeah, neither of those two guys passed 30 IP and Warren, who was by far 1st on the list, had a horrible year. real help Hedges was to him. to my other points, JTR has averaged 137 games the past three years while Hedges has only done 104 per, so markedly less durability, and while Hedges was 3rd in the NL with a CS per 3 attempts, JTR had a whooping 46.7% rate. its not even a contest in my mind. Hedges may be good on D but nobody beats Realmuto.
Pitch framing alone Hedges blew away the field with 20 runs saved. Next was Grandal and Flowers with 13 each. Realmuto had 8.
As Javia mentioned, Hedges dunked on everyone else in framing. His pitch calling ability is also unparalleled.
As far as Catcher arms are concerned yes Realmuto led MLB with an average pop time of 1.88. Hedges on the other hand was all the way down tied for 3rd in mlb with a 1.92. Not much difference it seems.
better pop time and a lower CS%. that’s not helping your point. also pitch framing is fairly arbitrary and DRS for catchers really isnt all that important compared to other positions.
CS% is a terrible way to judge a catcher. The catcher is only 1/3 responsible for the play, as the pitcher and the runner also factor in. Hedges is a better defender, in my opinion.
This is just funny. I show you a stat where Hedges and Realmuto are virtually identical with Realmuto 0.04 second better, and you say it proves your point. I show you another star where Hedges absolutely blows Realmuto away with MORE than DOUBLE the runs saved, and you say it doesn’t matter. Imagine that. You will hang your hat on a 0.04 second difference but ignore a 20 to 8 difference. Could it be that your mind is already closed? Could it be that you are just not listening?
Don’t get me wrong, Realmuto is very likely the best catcher in the game. He is top 2 both offensively and defensively in mlb. He is just #2 in both. Hedges is better on defense, Grandal is better on offense.
Actually I’d go with Sal Perez of the Royals at #2 defensively
Admit your wrong darkside, Hedges best D in baseball. Not even close.
Castillo is Munoz from the left side
Michel Baez is good but hasn’t lived up to his hype. He is a failed starter
Baez was hardly a failure as a starter with the numbers he put up. also, Mariano Rivero was a failed starter, so i dont think that means a whole lot to be honest.
*Rivera
Yeah?
Delin Betances, Andrew Miller, Brad Hand were also failed starters.
The way baseball is evolving where a pitcher only sees a better order twice teams need guys like Baez who could give you 2 or so innings out the pen.
Baez hasn’t lived up to the hype—that’s true. Neither did Andrew Miller. Which is all well and good but you still might not be able to keep him. Baez’s really only has 1 standout pitch and that is his fastball. It’s a very good fastball but….
Castillo is a really good reliever, Franchy has tons of upside, and Munoz has a bigger heater than Baez. And you’ve got other realistic options there as well. This is a tough one w/ the guys you have auto-locked down
Actually Baez has a mean changeup as well.
Aren’t pretty much all relievers failed starters?
If the DH comes to the NL, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Padres DH’d for Hedges and let their pitcher hit.
Unfortunate that Machado and Hosmer can’t be exposed.
Machado would instantly add credit to a new team. he would be selected for sure out of this group.
It would be interesting for sure. The age /money wouldn’t be the problem but do you want him as the face of a brand new org? Idk exactly, it probably comes down to the 2 owners personalities/views
I saw enough in a half season with LAD to know exactly why we didnt chime in a peep for the Manny sweepstakes-
It wasnt even a debated topic oddly locally (and everything is a debate out here), everyone knew he wasnt coming back the day we were eliminated –
No fan expected any discourse and none ever evolved and everyone out here was all smiles despite wanting a superstar……..just seems to be something in the water with him…..just takes 1 of the new owners to disagree though
If he put up similar offense as he did in 2019 no one would take a 30 million $ commitment for 8 years.
except its not a good idea to assume that
True AFK, but thats not really the case here or ever really. Your going to weight 18 17 16 15 14 as well; not just 19 as you so convienently have – Machados stats should not be questioned at this point, they are purely Elite
Plus they have wide open books and a Need for a major attraction so those both greatly benefit Machados case-
I think it comes down to “Is this the person you want to be the face” of your brand new franchise
@The Human Rain Delay 2018 was Machado’s statistical best season. The Padres offered him more money than anyone else was willing to offer after his statistical best season. He also was ineligible for a QO so you can’t use the excuse that “teams didn’t want to give up a draft pick to sign him.”
He is now coming off his statistical worst season. He will be two years older next offseason when this hypothetical expansion draft happens. So why would an expansion team want to take on all that money at that point?
Mike my man, Machados 17 16 15 14 were also Great…you have to factor them as well
And by saying “best year” it really seems like you are insinuating he had a career year then got overpaid…..he was a baller his WHOLE CAREER would be more accurate till 2019
Im not even a fan of Machado, quite the opposite but to sit here and say his sky is falling over a down 2019 is crazy….The guy is 27!!!!
@The Human Rain Delay I did factor them in and no one outbid the Padres for him despite him being great in 2014, ’15, ’16 and ’17. So why would they do it now after he just put up the worst season of his career? I can’t imagine any team is regretting not paying up for Machado at this time.
Nope its just the opposite. Machado doesn’t have any issues. If you think a few dity plays are what people dwell over you are mistaking. His 2019 season weighs the most in the present day and to be frank it was mediocre for his expectations.
I think its his leadership abilities and heart that are in question not performance or dirty plays
There are no better examples than his short shelf-life with the Dodgers which ultimately cost him millions and dwindled his suitors (and biggest one in LAD ) before he hit free agency-
If you think walking out singles off the wall in Oct the first time you ever get there doesnt run thru GMs minds before putting ink to a decade long contract your crazy. Going to LA cost him bc he exposed himself, if he stayed in Bal he would have had twice the suitors and probably 25-40 extra mill
Absolutely no one cared about Machado turning a double into a single when it came to his contract. He got exactly the range he was going to get. The Dodgers had no intrest in re signing Machado tp that type of deal regardless. Compare their comments on the matter to the same for Mookie now. Mookie is someone they will be all over trying to bring back.
The Dodgers didn’t try to bring Manny back because they didn’t need to. They already had an elite infield without him. They weren’t even mentioned as a possible trade suitor for him until Seager went down with Tommy John surgery. He was never going to be more than a 1-year rental for them. For the amount of money he cost, there were other places the Dodgers could have spent it that would have a bigger ripple effect.
Crazy Talk Mike and Afk -The Dodgers had been after Machado for 3 years plus. This wasnt a secret
They wanted him to end his career here
Then he came, left his toothbrush and some clothes for a couple months
And we ran as fast as we could to get away from him the first chance we got-
But sure, None of what happened in 18 mattered
Crazy part is if Bal was just stubborn and never trades him he’s a Dodger right now with an extra 40 mill on that contract
Nope. Dodgers already have an elite infield without him. They didn’t need to spend $300m upgrading a strength. They weren’t mentioned once as a potential trade partner with BAL until Seager got injured. Andrew Friedman doesn’t do long-term megadeals anyway. Only player he has given a 9-figure deal to is Clayton Kershaw.
Machado didnt fit the bill for the Dodgers plan
He was the Bill, and for many years
And then we got a look under the hood
We have absolutely been looking for a young Right handed hitter for years to compliment all our lefties ( Seager Lux Belli Muncy Joc) Machado was that target for years. The Dodgers will offer Mookie near 300 this year, what will the excuse be then?
I would love to see the Dodgers give Betts a $300 million plus contract!
I guess you enjoy making up nonsense based on nothing. There was nothing out there about trying to get Machado for years and nothing about them re-signing him when he came. Zaidi himself said the move was for 2018 and 2018 only. Where would he even play??? It would have been an extremely awkward fit beyond 2018. Quit the fake rumors.
@The Human Rain Delay the Dodgers already had a quality, RHH 3rd baseman signed through 2020. His name was Justin Turner.
They were not once mentioned as a potential trade suitor for Machado until after Corey Seager got hurt. Seager’s injury opened up a need for them on the left side of the infield. Machado was always a one-year rental for them.
You sure you’re a Dodgers fan?
Going to take a lot more than $300m to sign Betts
A gold glove right handed hitting 27 yr old 3b to move Turner to first and insurance on Seager for ss…
Awkward is not the word I would use
Z was being polite…… If he was to speak truth it would be ” We didnt like what we saw in 18″ long term
7 months you will get your wish Javia, Im not saying LAD will obtain Mookie but they will put in one of the highest bids out there and it will be damn near 300
@The Human Rain Delay long-term megadeals aren’t Friedman’s game. He likes those short-term high AAV deals, like what he signed Rich Hill for and what he offered to Bryce Harper. That is why he didn’t sign Machado. Along with the fact that they already had an elite infield without him. There were better things for them to spend their money on.
Again. You sure you’re a Dodgers fan?
thinkbluela.com/2018/12/dodger-fans-looking-forwar…
This paints the picture well of how we thought of Machado after his short stint and the reasons he would have worked so well if he had a better overall attitude
You dont know what Friedmans game is yet, he had none in TB bc he had no budget. It has taken him a while to figure out he doesnt need to sign BMC’s or Kazmir he can actually get superstars…… Machado was the guy….Mookie will be the next target largely due to hes young and right handed …give it time
@The Human Rain Delay that’s one writer’s opinion. All the Dodgers fans I’ve talked to liked Manny and he clearly got along with his teammates when he was there. If it hadn’t been for Seager’s injury, Manny would have never been a Dodger for any amount of time. They were trying to rectify their mistakes from the prior season and bring a championship back to Los Angeles. They knew that that wouldn’t happen if they went into the playoffs with no shortstop. So they went out and got the best shortstop they could get. If anything, it’s better that he was a one year rental because they didn’t need him for more than that and an equivalent player with more control would have cost more in terms of prospect capital. Even with Machado on their team for 40% of the season the best they could do was force a Game 163. Without Manny, they would have had to play the Wild Card game on the road at Wrigley Field and who knows how that would have gone?
Repeat after me: Manny’s attitude is fine. The Dodgers didn’t sign him because they didn’t need him. And because Andrew Friedman doesn’t do long-term megadeals.
First of all Zaidi made that comment in Milwaukee before Machados first game as a Dodger. Where on earth would Machado play if he was a Dodger now? They flat out did not need him after 2018 and Friedman knew that. Finally the Dodger fan hate for Machado is flat out ridiculous. He didn’t need to come back but the idea he was some team cancer is flat put wrong. Without him they don’t win the NL west or the pennant. It was a great trade to turn them into legit title contenders for 18. That hate is almost as dumb as the hate for Manny Ramirez.
3b everyday-
Turner would play 1b, defense takes a big step forward
Its funny you guys both say that but if you scroll the comments section you will all see the same message by LA fans –
C ya Manny !!
But i suppose “all the people you have talked to ” is your baseline here and you will stick with that-
Manny got exposed in the 18′ postseason . Maybe it was stage fright, maybe the lights were just too bright but many peoples perceptions changed that postseason on him
Remember this “I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”
Its not like he wasnt trying to hide it he just never had the stage to present his full true self !
Mannys attitude is fine
I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.
Manny Machado…months prior to hiting free agency and making his first true postseason run ! What a catch! All yours Mike
nytimes.com/2018/07/28/sports/baseball/manny-macha…
Are you kidding? A player leaves, signs with a team in direct competition and fans are “happy to see him leave.” It’s funny how that is what everyone says after the fact. Nationals fans were happy to see Bryce Harper leave… after he left. Before he did they we’re praying to God he would stay. This is MLB Trade Rumors. You are just giving the standard response of a fan of a team that loses a player. I mean, you should check this site every time there is a trade rumor. They always follow the standard pattern: Another team wants to trade for one of your players. You tell everyone you can that he is or will be a Superstar. He should be worth your while farm system! Then what do you know? After he is traded you say he sucked the whole time and we robbed you in the trade. If Manny was currently playing for the Dodgers, you would be saying he was God. Since he is not playing for you, you say he sucks.(or has a bad attitude) It’s human nature. Congratulations Human Rain Delay, you have proven you are human. But what you are saying about Manny Machado has no merit.
Jesus. DId Manny steal your dog or something? All the Dodger fans I talked to loved him when he was there and he got along great with his teammates and coaches in LA. He literally was the difference between you guys winning the division and having to play in the Wild Card game on the road (which, we can’t possibly know how that would have gone) and you are more interested in one quote from him?
The only person whose perception changed about him that postseason was you.
With Turner at 1B what happens to Muncy? If Muncy is pushed to 2B what happens to Lux? The Dodgers flat out did not need Manny Machado past 2018 and they were never commiting 10 years to him. He had an .810 OPS in the NLDS and NLCS. He very well could have won NLCS MVP but sure hE Got eXPoSeD. He was bad in the WS but so was every single hitter on the team other than Freese. No one cares what a few group of weird clueless fans have to say. Machado was a good Dodger and served his purpose as a rental. Do you even realize they finished the season tied for the west and had to play a game 163? Without his boost they were not a playoff team. You can obsess over ‘hustle’ all you want. In game 7 his smart hustle bunt which set up Belli’s HR made up for the all the bad plays he made. The only reason he will get boos at Dodger Stadium is because he is on a division rival. If you honestly think those boo’s are for his time as a Dodger and not because he is a Padre, you are beyond clueless. His 108 OPS + in his first season in SD was his biggest problem, not ‘johnny hustle’.
What happened Javia in those 3 months?
“I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”
I love how you guys wrote 3 books and not 1 sentence answering this and everything else that happened in those playoffs- Great job guys-
Javia enjoy your bum….. Glad you guys signed him, we got lucky to get that glimpse!!
When did I say he sucked? Never !!! I said we didnt sign him bc we saw what a fool he was…again check the comments in that article….notice a trend !
NLCS MvP ? Did you watch those games Lol…. Wow you are BAD!!
That was a riot AFK but again champion for Johnny Hustle, he deserves it!
His Ops was 713 in the playoffs including some awful errors in the field, some dirty plays on the paths, a lack of hustle and coming up empty in big situations time after time
“I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”
Hes literally telling you who he is and your telling me hes not that guy….. Sure! Ill take your word over his !
@The Human Rain Delay…
“Everything else that happened in the playoffs?” You mean like how without Manny, the Dodgers don’t MAKE the playoffs? And how he was a beast in the NLDS and NLCS? You are literally the only person who still cares about his “not going to be Johnny Hustle” quote.
The Dodgers didn’t sign Manny because they didn’t NEED him. They had better things to spend the $300m that they knew he’d cost on. And because Andrew Friedman doesn’t do long-term megadeals. That’s it.
I’m going to ask it again. Are you SURE you’re a Dodgers fan???
@The Human Rain Delay congratulations. You know how to use Ctrl-V. We all know what Manny said. The only person who is still talking about it is you.
Hey Human Rain Delay instead of being a weirdo that makes stuff up use some stats to back up your argument. Your talking points are a flat out joke built off bad opinions. Machado had an OPS of 220 points higher in the NLCS than the person who won that MVP in Bellinger. There were no ”awful errors” what the heck are you talking about? Name 1 fielding error he made that cost his team. In fact he made a defensive play that saved the series for the Dodgers in the bottom of the 5th bases loaded in game 2 vs Ryan Braun go look it up. I can provide examples and you cant. And no johnny hustle or clipping Aguilar does not take away anything that he did. His slides into 2b were not even dirty lol. One of them he raised his hand and lightly tapped Arcia, the other one was a slide straight into the bag. You’re weird obsession with him is sad and is showing how little you know about baseball. Let me guess you hate Manny Ramirez too and think he was bad for the Dodgers?
DarkSide83024 hours ago OG post
Machado would instantly add credit to a new team. he would be selected for sure out of this group.
AFK the Kid og post Afk71123 hours ago
If he put up similar offense as he did in 2019 no one would take a 30 million $ commitment for 8 years.
Use stats like that AFk…., …you have always shown to use fallacies like your original post,,,theres really nothing that you ever offer anyone here other than snide little marks like above- Move along….
Mike enjoyed the discussion, you make some valid points, Ive enjoyed reading your well thought out views even though I dont agree fully-
I think 18 was the first time we got to really see who Manny was…it wasnt a good look imo….I think it cost him….but Im glad we got the sneak peak and Im glad it worked out the way it all did- Yes Manny got us into the playoffs that year, I never disputed that, I have only cared about what happened after the 18 WS wrapped up with Manny
Manny was always a one-year rental for LAD. Most teams can’t trade top 100 prospects for rentals but LAD can because 1. Their scouting and development is topnotch so they can just replace them and 2. They are actually contending every year so it doesn’t matter if they are or aren’t able to keep the player because they need him NOW. Hence their trades for Rich Hill, Yu Darvish, Manny Machado and Mookie Betts.
2018 didn’t cost Manny anything. And you may not have disputed that he got them into the playoffs in 2018 but several Dodger fans on here did.
Manny wouldn’t be selected if the Padres got him to consent to being left unprotected because the Padres were the only team willing to go to $30m AAV through his age 36 season after 2018 when he was coming off his statistical best season and while he is still a good player, his 2019 wasn’t an improvement. I don’t see why any team would have changed their mind about him based on what he did in 2019.
Betts value has tanked considering Covid-19. He will lose 10s of millions without a doubt.
Machado.211 postseason hitter give it up
Because Manny’s D at 3B is very good one of the best and he averages 30+ HR’s a year with a strong bat to fill the No 4 spot in the line up.
No he would not.
nice response. care to back up your claim?
@DarkSide830 see above.
two years doesnt show a track record. you forget Machado is still very young and even in down years isnt a terribly bad player and can be a draw for a team that otherwise lacks noticeable players. you also seem to act like the Pads overpaid for Machado, despite the fact that many expected him to get more. i am not swayed.
@DarkSide8300 and yet, no one offered him more than the Padres despite everything you just said.
Since then, he has done nothing to make those other teams regret not outbidding the Padres.
well obviously because he accepted their offer, but its not like there wasnt a bidding war. we know at the very least that Chicago’s offer came close.
SD’s offer blew CWS’ completely out of the water. Kenny Williams even admitted that they could not go to the $300m level. And we all knew going into the offseason that Machado and his agent wanted $300m.
Machado will go down as one of biggest busts in sports history
What? Padre for life, He’s averaging 30+ HR’s a season, great D at 3B, you must be hulllicating. You must be the old monkey boy on the past Padre blogs that got kicked off and still bitter.
I wouldn’t pick up that contract. Machado’s way overpaid and not getting any younger. I’d pass. He has the name recognition for sure but there are better ways to build/budget a team.
Machado will wind up being another Albert Pujols. With his contract, he will be a Padre until he’s pushing 40.
i bet most people are voting for Franchy simpky because of just seeing the article on him.
I voted for Franchy because of his skill set .. he has raw power and great speed … If he can ever stay healthy he could potentially do very good things and I think the Padres would protect him to see if they can finally cash in … Better they protect him and cash in than running the risk of not protecting him and he tears it up somewhere new on a nice cheap deal
He has cannot field a position. Cost the padres a no hitter and a perfect game in the same season. The no hitter, one base hit, he took a bad route on a 99% catch rate. Simple catch as well
He is a failed short stop. He strikes out a lot, he doesn’t make a lot of contact but when he does it go far. Might as well grab Getty’s. He is a center fielder with a lot of power, great defense, great arm, and speed just limited contact
Grisham made an error that cost his last team a playoff spot last year. So what? Everyone makes errors. The past is the past.
Yea, I’m a Franchy fan but many don’t seem to realize how bad a fielder he is. And some are calling for him to be an everyday CFr which would be a disaster.
im not saying there is no reason for it, i just dont think the % would be as high otherwise.
This is his last season Franchy with the Padres if he doesn’t produce, that is hit at least .265 with outstanding D and at least 20 HR’s can’t afford to keep him otherwise.need to be able to play at least 125 games a season without being on the IL
I think it’s heavily dependent on the DH rule in the upcoming season. Either way Franchy is a legit 20/20 potential player.
I don’t know if the DH really changes his value that much in my mind. Part of the appeal of him to me is his ability to play CF with loud tools.
If he’s in the lineup constantly as DH I think I’m worried because he strikes out a ton and doesn’t walk all that much and now he’s no longer playing a premium position. Of course the catch-22 here is currently his OF defense is not good either. I guess maybe in that scenario he gets more playing time in the field when the other OFs need to cycle in at DH, but I don’t really know if defensively that’s a good thing.
Obviously the 20/20 potential and raw power/speed is there but I think he’s just going to be very boom or bust regardless of DH being implemented.
Baez, Castillo, and against all better judgement, Myers lol
They don’t need to protect Myers, they tried to send prospects to Boston this offseason to get them to take Myers and couldn’t even make it work.
He’s got negative value under his current deal so no team is picking him in an expansion draft. If by some chance a team did, it would be great for the Padres to clear his salary off the books.
Even if you like Myers, you don’t have to protect him. His contract, poor play and overall bad attitude will do that for you.
I actually posted this one on reddit because I figured they would do the NL West last and wouldn’t get to the Padres until like a week into June. Instead of answering, everyone just got mad at me for saying that no one would take Manny Machado if we were able to convince him to let us leave him unprotected.
For what it’s worth, here are the players I would protect:
Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr, Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, Dinelson Lamet, Francisco Mejia, Emilio Pagan, Trent Grisham, Andres Muñoz, Cal Quantrill, Adrian Morejon, Josh Naylor, Matt Strahm and Michel Baez. If we are able to convince one of Eric Hosmer or Manny Machado to let us leave them unprotected them switch them out for Tommy Pham. If we are able to convince both of them to let us leave them unprotected then switch them out for Austin Hedges.
I honestly don’t know why they have Drew Pomeranz as one of the locks on here.
I was let down by your ending
I feel you have a pretty good grasp on this org and interesting views….. then you left Pham off your original 15
I left him off for two main reasons.
1. He’s basically a one-year-rental
2. He probably needs Tommy John surgery so there’s a good chance he never plays a regular season game for the Padres.
I did not take his reputation or what we gave up to get him into account.
Thats good you didnt take what you gave for him into consideration, it shouldnt come in –
But Pads are in win Now mode, you just cant give up that Pham year, even if hes a full time DH… by your measure you only get 1 extra year with Strahm
A rebuilding team sure, but not the 2021 Padres,….Im with you on Pom though… a re-do on the not seen yet would also be in my interest….although I dont even think Pom would be picked up
I went with pure surplus value, as I have in making my choices on all of these articles.
I found it interesting nonetheless, I too am using surplus value I just dont see it with options like Strahm making the cut-
If it got tougher than I agree, I actually think Morejon and Pom shouldnt get a comfortable Rose to the next Rd as well-
Although not the original exercise I might take Naylor and Hedges over them and keep my original 3 Baez Castillo Munoz- I like all 3 of those arms at least as much as Morejon to begin with
Win now mode for team that won 70 games last year lol
And in the same division as the Dodgers… I guess to some folks “win now” means hope to eke one’s way into a wildcard spot at best.
Yup like the Nats of 19 ! Crazy idea huh
What was the stipulation that the Padres put in that transaction?
I don’t know why they didn’t start with the nl first
Senior vs Junior Circuit
You’re not wrong. As I said above Machado needs to have a rebound season to get drafted in a hypothetical 2021 expansion draft.
If I had to guess he doesn’t agree to being left unprotected but yeah. The Padres outbid everyone else for him and this was when he was coming off his personal best season and didn’t even cost them a draft pick to sign (thanks Dodgers!)
yeah biggest hurdle is the NTC. we can say he may get selected or not, but if its likely he says no. much more likely Hosmer does.
My hope would be that Hosmer is realistic about his odds of being selected and allows us to leave him unprotected so we can use that spot on someone else and therefore make the team he plays for a better team.
Dodgers played in the WS and traded nothing significant for him. Trade worked out fine for them. They could care less about if SD had to give up a pick. And 99 percent chance Machado will be better than any comp pick so that doesn’t matter either.
@Afk711 you miss the point. Often times when someone suggests team A trade for player B who they had the chance to sign in free agency within the past year or two and took a hard pass on, I will ask why they would trade for him when they didn’t want to sign him for all that money in the first place. They will often respond with “Because they didn’t want to give up the draft pick.” That’s a pretty flimsy excuse to begin with, but in Machado’s case, it doesn’t work at all because he cost no draft pick.
Agree, costing a pick is a valid excuse for some players but not someone at Machados level lol. Kimbrel or Keuchel sure.. but not the top tier free agents.
Not a valid excuse for any player, regardless of ability, when you are asked why a team would want to trade for them if they passed on the opportunity to sign them when they were a FA.
If two of them are not munez and Castillo you all know nothing about the padres
“or.” not exposing either of Naylor or Quantrill for relievers who will likely have injury issues.
@Darkside830 this is 100% spot on, the real two that you have to protect are Cal and Naylor. Too much potential to let either of them be exposed.
Munoz/Castillo were in the mix for that 3rd spot for me but I couldn’t justify it with Munoz getting Tommy John just a couple months ago and Castillo missing all of last year with an injury. They’ve both been nasty, I just don’t know if you can count on them returning to form. It felt safer to me to protect Baez or Strahm if you want to keep another arm since they theoretically could still be starters (doubtful though), but I also think Franchy is such a high upside bat that even though he’s a major risk of busting, it’s more worthwhile to roll the dice on him than on relievers.
Relievers, no matter how hard they throw or how good they are one year … are a very volatile bunch .. are a dime a dozen .. 5 years ago would any organization have considered Kirby Yates elite? No … Protecting high upside bats and starting pitching is much more important than relief pitching
Many if not most teams in mlb need serious help in their bullpens. If the Padres left these guys unprotected they would be guaranteed to be taken. Good relievers are anything but a dime a dozen.
It’s not that they’re a dime a dozen but how unpredictable they can be.
For this exercise, you definitely gotta protect Naylor and Quantrill. Then that third spot can go to one of Baez, Muñoz or Strahm.
Imagine if the White Sox hadn’t traded for James Shields. They’d have FTJr. to go along with that young core. Bone head move.
Nobody had any idea back then how good Tatis would be … He had skills and upside but nobody knew how it would play out … That Tatis would turn elite …
Interesting that Morejon is locked in. Munoz is obviously injured but it wouldn’t surprise me to see people take him over Morejon. Munoz, Baez, Castillo are all 3 potential relievers that someone could like more than Morejon. Before you even look at any starters or position players.
I think it’s likely that a majority would take Morejon as a keeper but there’s definitely some room for debate there.
They had two locks that I wouldn’t even protect if I had the choice, those being Pham and Pomeranz.
Agree that Morejon probably doesn’t belong in the “lock” category but if he wasn’t, he’d probably get enough votes to be protected anyway.
Morejon is a top flight SP prospect. you protect that any day over a RP prospect, no matter how good, and especially if the RP is an injury concern.
The only problem with that is that Morejon isn’t a top flight SP prospect to most people anymore. There’s a very strong chance he’s a reliever.
well these evaluators can get hung up on a 4.25 ERA at AA for a guy who was barely 20 all they want, but i dont know where you get that he is a reliever from. and he is top flight still, consensus top 100 guy a year ago who reached the Majors at 20. he is arguably the 3rd biggest lock on hear if you exclude the ntc guys.
Patino/Gore/Paddack/Lamet
That’s the 4 SP’s of the future.
The fifth slot is Lucchesi/Davies/Weathers/other prospects Quantrill/Outside the organization acquisition(s) or Morejon.
There’s really a ton of options for San Diego. Morejon isn’t built like a front line starter. There’s definitely questions as to whether he’ll remain there. I’d have no issue w/ anyone wanting to keep him but I think there should at least be the option not to. His prospect light has dimmed and the Padres have more quality options than most teams.
i mean even for that reason though you really need to just trade him then. leaving him exposed to lose for nothing would be a huge loss of trade capital, even if he bombs with the drafting team.
But to keep him you’re giving up the opportunity to potentially keep
Franchy, Naylor, Baez, Munoz, Castillo etc.
Franchy has all the tools to be a well above average outfielder. Munoz has the potential to be a lethal closer. Castillo is basically what you would hope Morejon would turn into if he was a reliever full time. So, there’s some room for debate IMO. Im not saying that I necessarily would leave Morejon off either but I’d have to seriously consider.
I get your point about the others you would have to expose because they all have value, but Morejon has a way higher ceiling as a SP. He’s very young and a top 100 prospect for a reason, if you expose that type of player a team would definitely take him.
Plus you alluded to this already, but if Morejon doesn’t pan out as a starter, then he likely turns into Castillo type reliever, so why would you leave all of Morejon’s upside on the table for Castillo who has less control remaining and is coming off an injury?
The SP upside solid reliever floor makes him a lock in my mind.
Yeahhhhh. I’m seriously going to need an explanation as to why they had Drew Pomeranz among the “locks.”
lot of questionable locks to be honest. you can make a case for exposing any of Pomz, Grisham, (who i 100% would have before the spring he had) Pham, Lamet, or even Pagan. feel a little bit boxed in this time.
Pagan and Lamet are locks. Pham and Pom I would have left exposed. Grisham I would protect but I would at least have given the voters the option to leave him unprotected.
Not sure id lock in Pagan … as I said in another post I made … no matter how good a reliever is one season to the next … relievers are a very volatile and very replaceable bunch .. I would easily protect a young SP like Baez or Quantrill or a young OF like Cordero over a RP like Pagan (or Pomeranz for that matter) and don’t get me wrong … I respect them both … My prime example … 5 years ago would anybody have considered Kirby Yates elite?
cant lock Pagan right now given his relative inconsistency between years and that he is older than a lot of your other options in the non-lock section. Lamet’s injury issues also concern so id have to see a strong, healthy year to say he is a full on lock.
Lamet is an easy keep. He came back from his TJ and looked strong.
There are at least 8 names that I would love to protect on that list. Cal Quantrill would be first and foremost. He had a 3.32 ERA as a rookie starter last year before he fell apart the last month. He has tons of control left and teams want him. I would put him ahead of Davies just because of the added control. My other 2 choices would be Franchy Cordero and Jose Castillo. Cordero because he has lots of control and the Padres are desperate for quality OFs. Just the chance that he could fulfill his promise makes him worth keeping. Lastly, Castillo has proven his worth as a high quality reliever. I know many people like to say that relievers have little value but I find that amusing considering the dismal state of so many mlb bullpens.
It would truly hurt to lose Strahm, Naylor, Munoz, Hedges, Guerra, Davies Baez and even Bolanos. There are 2 to 4 quality relievers and a quality starting pitcher or 2 in there. Munoz could be a future closer. I know lots of teams have been eyeing Baez. But I guess tough choices have to be made.
I had those exact 3 as well. Some of the best upside on the list
also id lobby strongly for Torrens’s slection by one of these teams. great ex-prospect who might finally be ready to be a great hitting catcher in the Majors.
The Rule 5 selection made his development track a little weird, but he just turned 24 and tore up AA last year. So while he’s technically not a prospect because he already exceeded rookie limits, I pretty much view him like an MLB ready prospect albeit with one less year of control.
Really depends on available catcher depth in the expansion draft, but you can definitely justify taking him if there are limited options. Personally I would probably rather have some of the higher upside Padres arms that will end up unprotected, but he’s in the mix.
yeah he wasnt one of my three even being a big fan of his, but id assume the value in catching makes other teams protect more catchers and leaves Torrens as a good option for either team here. with 30 selections to make by each team its very possible you see each team make 3 40 man catcher selections alone, and Torrens would very likely be one of the best young catchers exposed.
Quantrill, Naylor, Hedges, and Cordero. Keep Pomeranz available because he wouldn’t be selected. Why would an expansion team pick a reliever on a long-term big money deal? Munoz/Castillo saved after first round (too many injury questions to be selected).
I love how Padres articles are the ones that lead to the comments exploding. Even more than the Yankees. They certainly have a peppy fanbase.
Not very smart though
According to?
Any intelligent fan knew Manny Machado was not a “superstar” nit wit Padre fans thought otherwise
I picked Davies, who can be a serviceable number 4 starter and has value, Hedges for his role as a defense-first, backup catcher (that’s who he is, let’s face it), and Stammen because he’s one of the better relief pitchers in baseball in the last couple of seasons. I get why people can make a case against any one of them, as all are replaceable, but I could make a case against any other player on that list too.
Franchy has all the talent in the world but unless he can show that he can stay healthy, he’s a massive risk. I’d rather pick players where I know what I’m getting rather than what could be. The same logic largely applies for all of the prospects on the list, as none of them are sure fire prospects.(if there is even such a thing).
France and Garcia narrowly missed out (for their versatility), Naylor seems a promising DH candidate but unless/until they make the DH official in the NL, he’s too one-dimensional, and Quantrill is a younger, more erratic Davies.
If you take the contract out of the equation, a case could also be made for Wil Myers, who has the highest production of any player on that list at MLB level to date, but the contract is so bad that I’d hope a team would get desperate and pick him.
And with the first overall pick in the 2021 MLBTR mock expansion draft…. the Las Vegas Land Vipers select…..
Someone from the Padres.
Lots of good players here. Baylor, Baez, Cordero, Quantrill, Castillo, Hedges.
I’d prefer to leave Pomeranz unprotected though. That contract was crazy and I doubt an expansion team would touch it.
Myers should be a required keep. He’s on a guaranteed contract. Because of that, he gets one of my votes.
Aren’t all MLB contracts guaranteed?
As has been said before, the money owed to him, his poor play and his overall bad attitude will do the job of “protecting him” for us.
HMM Meyers has an attitude and Manny is just fine ? Interesting Mike
Interesting and true
Why weren’t the Marinera forced to protect their top 100 prospects? Cuz they aren’t on the 40 man yet?
Sounds like Milan won the expansion team… mmmmm, I love pasta.
I don’t think they would protect Mejia.
Still no explanation as to why they had Drew Pomeranz as one of the “locks.” Disappointed.
Franchy, Naylor and Baez
If I could choose to not keep Hosmer or Myers I would also go with Munoz and Hedges.
You don’t have to keep Myers smart guy.
Do people not like Zach Davies? He’s been a solid starter when healthy. Last year he had a 3.55 ERA in 33 starts for the Brewers. That seems like something worth holding on to, no?
He’s a good player on a very deep and talented 40 man… and the odd man out in this case. I’d protect Baez and Castillo before Davies even though Davies is more proven. Higher ceilings, more control, less payroll, etc. Protecting Davies is akin to saying that you’d protect Lauer if we still had him. Yes, they are two different apples but you could bunch them up together in this hypothetical case.
This one was pretty easy but man, the Padres have to leave quite a few talented guys unprotected. Ultimately, I went with…
#1 – Cal Quantrill (Haven’t seen him play but he’s still highly regarded)
#2 – Zach Davies (Davies is the type of starter I think any team could use)
#3 – Franchy Cordero (I wanted to pick Baez or Munoz but Cordero still has a lot of potential)