In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR. Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.
So far, we’ve done the Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles. The Mariners are next.
First, we’ll remove free agents Dee Gordon, Taijuan Walker, and Yoshihisa Hirano from consideration. I’ve decided to lock down these 11 players out of the gate:
Mitch Haniger
Marco Gonzales
Evan White
Logan Gilbert
Justus Sheffield
Justin Dunn
Kyle Lewis
J.P. Crawford
Shed Long
Jake Fraley
Tom Murphy
That leaves four spots for the following 25 players:
Austin Adams
Dan Altavilla
Gerson Bautista
Braden Bishop
Brandon Brennan
Nestor Cortes
Carl Edwards Jr.
Kendall Graveman
Zac Grotz
Taylor Guilbeau
Sam Haggerty
Yusei Kikuchi
Tim Lopes
Matt Magill
Nick Margevicius
Dylan Moore
Austin Nola
Kyle Seager
Mallex Smith
Erik Swanson
Daniel Vogelbach
Donovan Walton
Art Warren
Taylor Williams
Patrick Wisdom
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly four players you think the Mariners should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
Easy call for me: Mallex, Vogelbach, Bishop, and Adams. I love Seager and don’t want to give up on Kikuchi, but if the expansion team wants to step into those contracts they can be my guest. Seattle would hopefully put the savings towards an ace in the offseason.
I went Mallex, Vogelbach, Adams, Nola. Bishop is a surplus, Mallex-lite. Great player to have on a roster but I’m not protecting him here.
Bishop hasn’t been the same since lacerating his spleen. If he doesn’t play this year, there would be enough questions regarding his health that he probably wouldn’t be at risk of getting selected if there were expansion teams.
But if he gets back on track he could form a solid platoon with Fraley, or serve as a solid fourth outfielder. He’s the best defensive center fielder Seattle has in their system, though Keleic is likely going to get that job in short-order.
Why would you protect Vogelbach? He’s a LH DH—very replaceable.
Because it looks like the league is taking steps to finally purge pitchers hitting in the NL. Once that step is taken in the next year or two, there will be 15 teams shopping for a DH. Personally, if they do go no pitchers hitting in 2020, I would dump him for a couple lottery tickets. Example of this kind of trade: Vogelbach and Bishop to SF for Adon and Luis Matos.
Seattle is so far from contention that spending money on an “ace” this coming off season would be a waste of money.
They wouldn’t be that far if they started investing in front-line starters and star fielders.
Several of the future-core players should be on the field by 2022 (Kelenic, Gilbert, and White). Lewis might be in that conversation and other useful players, such as Sheffield and Dunn, should be contributing before then.
Kikuchi looks like the biggest trap. I think Erik Swanson and Mallex Smith are Dipoto favorites that would be kept.
i think Kikuchi is a prime expose candidate. worst case scenario you have that money back for another free agent. best case you get to protect another guy and maybe protect Kikuchi in the second round.
I hope the objective of these surveys is for the writers to conduct an expansion draft based on our selections once we’ve gone through the whole league
That is mentioned at the top of the article.
Probably took you longer to type and post the comment then it would have taken you to simply read the first sentence.
Yes it is! Me and Connor Byrne will each represent an expansion team and do a live event for our picks. Should be fun.
Tim … I asked once before but is there a way that you can post the results for each team maybe like 24 hours later since the results link doesnt work for androids it seems … it freezes everytime it loads and you’re unable to see all the the results … Thank you
Works fine on my android.
Vogelbach, Mallex, Bishop, Adams. I know Mallex had a rough first season in Seattle but I think he’s still got some good potential.
Mallex can’t hit his way out of a paper bag, and it isn’t even the greatest fielder. He will spend his career as a 4th outfielder and pinch runner.
Adams Mallex Vogelbach and Swanson are who I kept … The first 3 were pretty easy … The final pick came down to Swanson and Kikuchi and I figured Swanson would be more likely to be taken in an expansion draft since he is cheaper and has a solid skill set
Mallex, Bishop, Vogelbach, and Swanson. ill take the younger starter in Swanson over an older RP in Adams, especially given Adams isnt a given to stay a quality RP. id sell high on Vogelbach but cant expose him.
Some of the players trending high are DFA and non-tender candidates, depending on how they perform this season (if there’s a season). This would be fun to revisit next offseason.
I really wonder what Seattle would do if a team–any team–was willing to take Seager without cash being involved (as a waiver claim, for example). They don’t have an real internal alternatives in the upper minors, nor on the 40, and they lack veterans.
The job might eventually go to Marte, but he’s probably a few years out.
There are free agents that could be plugged into the 3B hole on a terrible team like this that I’m sure would just be happy to have a job.
Have you looked at the free agent list?
More importantly, part of the reason moving on from Seager immediately (if possible) may not be a good idea has to do with how far away they are from contention.
He has an option for 2022 and the team could feasibly start their run that year. They lack veterans, and he’s among the best defensively, so I certainly understand why they might prefer to keep him at this point.
That said, I think it would be interesting to see them invest in Realmuto, move Seager if possible and hand 3B to Nola for now. Murphy would return to the backup role.
This doesn’t seem likely, though.
Adams, Gilbeau, Kikuchi, and Bautista. I’m playing the numbers game on controllable high ceiling arms. All of the ofs on the list can and will be replaced easily from within shortly. Or easily through trade. I don’t both Smith and bishop would be selected. And we have a surplus in the of right now
I went Mallex, Nola, Vogelbach, and Seager.
why protect Seager? he’s not getting selected and if he is its nice salery relief for a team that does not need him right now.
I’d let all four of those guys get exposed. Nola/Vogey are easily replaceable, Mallex isnt good, and Seager is expensive
Nola isn’t easily replaceable. He’s their backup catcher and they don’t have a ready-now alternative. Raleigh was just getting his feet wet in AA. Nola’s positional flexibility is an asset as well. He can play anywhere in the infield.
I went with Vogey, Mallex, Lopes, and Adams. Vogey can obviously swing it. Mallex had a down year but is one of the top athletes in the league. He can do things on the field that you just cant coach – its god given. Hopefully he turns it around. I think people are sleeping on Tim Lopes. Dude looks like he can be a consistent hitter and play everywhere and is controllable. Adams is just nasty. Thoughts?
How do the Ms two brightest pieces fail to crack anywhere on this list? These two are TOP TWO on the lockdown list…Jared Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez!!!
Kelenic is signed to a contract but hes not cutrrently on the MAriners team roster, hes still in the minors. Same with Julio, hes still down in single a IIRC since hes only 19 years old
You’re thinking of White. Kelenic and Rodriguez haven’t signed extensions.
oh Derp yes i am.
Because neither are on the 40 nor need to be protected. Same reason Kirby, Marte, Williamson, etc. aren’t on the list.
There is a link in the article that explains the rules of the draft.
Top prospects aren’t available to be selected……………..
There’s that as well!
Worth noting, Sam Delaplane, Wyatt Mills, and Juan Then will be Rule-5 eligible next year. Then is far enough away that he might not need to be protected, but Delaplane will. He could very well be their set-up man or closer in 2021. Wyatt Mills is debatable, but I would anticipate him being protected as well.
The 40 in Seattle is going to get tight.
Looking at the results and seeing Seager up there is a little startling. Locking up young strong arms seems to be more important than an aging 3rd baseman when we have so many IN/OF players coming up young and controllable. I went Bautista, gilbeau, Adams, and kikuchi.
A who’s who of who cares on that list
There apparently should have been a disclaimer noting that these posts are for fans with knowledge, interest, or both, in baseball.
I’d keep 4 arms, probably Adams, Bautista, Guilbeau and Swanson!
I don’t have time to figure the whole thing out right now, but I would cross off Vogelbach., Moore, and Wisdom right away.
Not that it really matters but the Austin Adams you have listed … the link brings you to the Twins minor league pitcher not the Mariners RP …
I’m surprised with the results so far. This seems more like a poll of “pick the name you know”. Odds are extremely slim of a team drafting Seager or Kikuchi so you expose them and protect two prospects instead.
that’s the travesty of this exersize. evidently no one here knows how an expansion draft works. you clearly dont protect Seager as the M’s – that’s just a fact.
To be fair I dont think a great explanation was ever clearly drawn out for most of the posters-
Yes they could have taken the 5 mins to do their own research to understand how an expansion draft works but cmon its 2020…. I think they just chose the “best players” with no regards to money or service time remaining….
I think each of these articles could have had an extra staple paragraph in the begining explaining the nuisances a little better to help the crowd below
If MLB did expand at some point, where? Portland, Oregon? Vegas? Montreal? It’s an intriguing thought. I know MLB wants to solve the stadium issues with Oakland and Tampa before expansion would be considered. And now there’s uncertainty regarding revenues post Covid.
There are so many teams that play with empty stadiums, I kind of feel like MLB needs to shrink, maybe get rid of 4 teams.
Popularity seems to be waning. Kneecapping the minor leagues seems like a really bad move since those games are affordable, that’s where the sport should be drawing new fans in.
100% they need to get rid of 2 teams before add them
This also puts pressure on the bottom teams that just made the cut to start spending or else they are next-
Sadly it takes a strong message like this to get these teams moving in the right direction
I Dont think its great Tb and Oak can survive with such low payrolls I think its a travesty they cant spend more at this point
Everything out there suggests it would likely be one in the East and one in the West.
But the geographical balance is already off. I would like to see Portland and Vegas get teams.
almost no love for Warren. The guy is gonna be good!
he’s been older then average at every stop he’s come to in the minors. those numbers are inflated.
Has there been any recent updates surrounding Hanigers injuries? Really curious whether his rehab has gone well and if he would be able to start the season on day one
Good or bad, Jerry Dipoto will trade all of them in a year
Yusei Kikuchi is a very odd case-
He was said to be at a healthy 95/96 in spring training with more confidence
I never liked the (amount) at signing but I get the plan – Sea has a major Asian market and desperately needs long term arms- They also need to keep the fan base around a couple of years while they are re-building
I know Ive been all about saving the money on possible bad deals in the past in these articles but I might want to see where this story goes for Sea…Obv last year didnt pan out well but he looked like a whole new person this Spring and if you were so high on him to begin with I think Id have to give him a Rd 2 here
Gilbert isn’t eligible, why is he there?
He’s not. Tim listed him as a lock.
I went with Austin Adams, Yusei Kikuchi, Mallex Smith and Austin Nola.
If you’re going to keep some notable, potentially great relief arms I’m going to vote for Adams over Bautista, though maybe there’s a slight argument due to how Bautista was acquired. With relievers I try and imagine their value when traded at peak times and what they bring back, so I’m inclined to believe Adams would fetch more based on his limited performance.
Nola is kept for his extreme defensive versatility and his production in 2019 was no small thing. His skill as a backup/part time catcher would give him the edge over Lopes, Wisdom and Moore — even if I do see value in those three.
Kikuchi has innings, or at least he should have innings, which the Mariners will likely need plenty of. I’m not convinced he is toast, but the debut is well documented as… not good. I think he rebounds in 2020 and beyond, or at least becomes an very minimally above average innings eater with some encouraging peripherals.
I chose Mallex, but Fraley is basically tied with him in my mind, albeit for differing reasons. If it’s true that Mallex is better suited for turf, then we can eat the acquisition, but if there’s a decent chunk of 2018’s performance left somewhere in the tank then it may have been worth it. I’m not convinced Dipoto won’t try to extend him. Fraley has some truly great minors numbers and I’m not convinced last season’s cup of coffee was a good representation of his skills at all. He’s almost guaranteed to be drafted if not protected, in my mind.
Seager, Nola, Kikuchi, Bautista
I didn’t see Mallex Smith on the list when I made my picks. Woops. Replace Bautista with Mallex Smith
A lot of love for Nola. Is he that good? I’m skeptical but admittedly haven’t seen much of him.
I agree the M’s would be fine shedding Yusei and Seager’s contracts. No need to protect either.
Salt Lake City gets my vote for an expansion location.
Jazz fans are intense!
That’s a cool and fresh take from what you usually hear. Nice suggestion!
I went Kikuchi, Mallex, Nola, Seager. Kikuchi and Mallex you have to give a chance to bounce back given their track records. Nola you have to see if he’s really Whit Merrifield. The last slot I went back and forth between Seager and Vogey, with Adams the only other one I’d really consider. Ultimately I decided Vogey is easier to replace. I could not possibly care less about Seager’s contract, he is literally the only expensive player on the roster and it’s laughable to see people talk about the team needing that money like the owners wouldn’t simply pocket it. He’s also an all-time great Mariner and there are no good internal options to replace him. He’s also the best player on the list and I don’t see why the conventional wisdom is that he would be safe to expose in the first round. The contract isn’t exorbitant, it’s retail, he’s still an above average everyday player…so yeah not sure why he’d supposedly be so safe to expose. We’re talking about teams starting out with minuscule payrolls, not sure why they’d be scared off by his deal. I mean the Rays drafted Boggs in the expansion draft didn’t they?
Not sure where you do your research or get your information but this is so wildly off base its hard to point out exactly whats wrong. But i can start with: Theres no way the Ms going to waste a lock on seager when theyre literally trying their best to get his money off the books, if you dont think his contract is an albatross at this point then im not really confident in your ability to determine whom they should save in a draft. being an aging player with a 20+mil contract in todays market was already a poison pill even barring his player option protection.
This looked like it could have been a good experiment but letting “fans” pick whos saved and who isnt has already ruined the outcome. Its just ended up ill-informed people picking their favorites over what the Mariners actually need in terms of players and positions.
The outcome of this fake survey regarding a hypothetical expansion that’s not gonna happen has been “ruined” for you because people didn’t vote your way? Really? Were you also upset that Fred Flintstone had to drive his car with his feet?
Carl Edwards Jr.
Vogelbach(he helped the cubs win the world series when they acquired Mike Montgomery)
Kyle Seager
Mallex Smith
Adams, Nola, Mallex and Kikuchi were my final 4.
Vogelbach doesn’t have that much value, and we can use the DH as rotational position used by haniger or others
Seager is old and expensive
This is actually a lot tougher than I thought it’d be. Ultimately, I went with…
Mallex Smith – (Despite only being controllable until 2023, he’s someone I believe would absolutely be selected by an expansion team. Besides, I don’t think we’ve seen Mallex at his best yet.)
Daniel Vogelbach – (I very nearly left him unprotected but being controllable until 2025 and the NL possibly adopting the DH for 2020 and beyond, I think Vogelbach is the better choice rather than Erik Swanson)
Austin Nola – (This one feels like a no-brainer. Nola has good value as a catcher who can play the infield and can actually hold his own offensively)
Braden Bishop – (Probably not a popular pick but a good defensive center fielder with a lot of team control has value on this team, IMO.)