We were all dealing with much more significant problems when the shocking news came down: Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ high-octane hurler, was headed in for Tommy John surgery. That would’ve hit like a ton of bricks — just two days before Opening Day — had it not been for the fact that the season was already on pause.
The replacement of Thor’s ulnar collateral ligament will hopefully save his career. But it’ll wipe out his age-27 season, severely denting the hopes of the Mets in 2020 (should the campaign get underway). The hope had been that Syndergaard would trend back towards his immense ceiling, giving the team the game’s best 1-2 punch alongside uber-ace Jacob deGrom.
But that’s really only part of the picture for the Mets — the toughest, but also the simplest part. The club has no choice but to soldier on and trust in the arms it has compiled. There’s no changing course in late March. But what of the longer view?
The Mets will certainly tender Syndergaard a contract for 2021, his final season of arbitration eligibility, unless there’s a serious red flag in his rehab efforts. That’ll cost $9.7MM, a match for his 2020 salary. Even if the Mets only get something like half of a season from Syndergaard, he’s almost certainly worth that kind of risk. And the team would be buying the right to make him a qualifying offer — and, if he declines it, to accrue draft compensation — at season’s end.
But wait … we’re basically now contemplating Syndergaard as something of a ten million dollar roll of the dice on upside. It typically takes about 14 months for a starter to get back to full competitive action after undergoing the surgery, which would put him on track to resume action in June of 2021. And Syndergaard will have as much personal incentive to take full care in getting back to the hill as he will to perform well when he does, as he’ll be preparing for free agency. When GM Brodie Van Wagenen plotted his recent moves, including bidding adieu to Zack Wheeler, the idea was to have a full 2021 season of Syndergaard and deGrom. Instead, it’ll be deGrom, a hopeful mid-season return of Thor, and … let’s see what else …
The notion of an in-house Wheeler replacement, in the form of Marcus Stroman, made some amount of sense in the context of the 2020 campaign. But Stroman is now headed for his own trip on the open market, likely after turning down a qualifying offer. There’s no indication that the sides have gained traction in extension talks (if they’ve seriously engaged in them at all). Recent signees Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha are only playing on one-year deals, so they’ll also be free agents.
Adding Stroman cost the Mets a near-majors prospect in Anthony Kay and a potential fast riser in Simeon Woods Richardson. The club had already moved another immediate-term rotation candidate in Justin Dunn, who went to Seattle in the Edwin Diaz–Robinson Cano deal.
[MLBTR on YouTube: Mets’ Disastrous Trade For Diaz & Cano]
Those moves have left the upper reaches of the Mets farm relatively barren of well-regarded rotation talent. David Peterson, Thomas Szapucki, Franklyn Kilome, and Kevin Smith are among the best arms in the system who could be part of the 2021 rotation picture. But they’ll all lost major developmental opportunities due to the coronavirus. There are a few other somewhat more advanced hurlers, as we discussed in evaluating the team’s rotation depth this spring, but the general talent level is rated at a step below the names just listed. It’s awfully tough to presume that the Mets will feel comfortable leaning on this group.
The biggest wild card may be Steven Matz, whose ups and downs are well-documented. He has been healthy enough to make thirty starts in each of the past two seasons, carrying a sturdy 4.09 ERA across that span, but fielding-independent pitching measures aren’t nearly as bullish on Matz as they once were. In 2019, he generated a 4.60 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA — all checking in north of his 4.21 ERA.
If something goes wrong with Matz, the Mets could be looking at opening the 2021 season with four new rotation pieces alongside deGrom. Even with the prospect of a heroic return of Thor buoying the team mid-campaign, that’s a tough picture for an organization that has enjoyed so much excellence from its staff. On the plus side, there will be a lot of money available to work with … depending upon how you look at things.
The Mets were set to enter the 2020 season with just under $175MM of payroll; they’re committed for about $100MM less for 2021. That’s good! But it doesn’t include arbitration spending. With Syndergaard, Matz, Michael Conforto, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis, and others, this could be a $40-45MM arbitration class. That would move the total payroll into the $120MM range.
Either way, there should in theory be some funds to work with, though it’s anyone’s guess what’ll be happening with the team’s uncertain ownership situation and how that will weigh on the situation. Thing is, the Mets will also have quite a few holes to fill. Adding as many as four reliable starters just isn’t easy to do on the cheap. The Mets also figure to have openings at catcher, in center field, and in a bullpen that will lose Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Brad Brach.
This is a tough spot for the Mets. In a normal season, they’d probably adjust their mid-season trade stance to being more willing to sell. If the campaign isn’t developing quite as hoped, there’d be an opportunity to cash in Stroman and perhaps others to help prepare for 2021. But we have no idea whether that’ll really be possible in a highly unusual 2020 season format (the details of which remain completely unknown at this point). And it’d hurt to take a seller stance after building up to contend.
The Mets were dealt a tough hand here; the loss of Syndergaard really stings even beyond 2020. Suppose he had pitched well in 2020 but the team went south in other areas; he’d have been a prime mid-season or offseason trade chip. Or what if things do indeed turn out well for the club even absent Thor? A contending Mets team may end up being forced to mine the farm system to bring in an impact arm, whether in mid-2020 or the ensuing offseason or both. Planning for the 2021 season and beyond will now be quite a bit more complicated, because it’ll be quite difficult to know what the club will get out of Syndergaard. And the possibility of an extension with Syndergaard — while perhaps remote to begin with — now seems quite difficult even to imagine.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
mlbnyyfan
It’s time both NY teams make a deal. Thor for Judge. One injured player for another.
MetsFan22
As a Mets fan. The yanks would be stupid to that trade
Nigel Mckenzie
The judge for McNeil
jneumann
The Mets would be stupid to make that trade
Get Off My Mound
Lol is the only apt response for this comment.
yanks49erswolves
You must be suffering from the CV-19 for that swap. I’ll take Judge’s 400 ABs vs Thor’s 20 starts. At least Judge produces at an AS level when he plays. Thor’s recent trajectory is a little better than league average.
SirCheeto1
Judge is much more valuable than Thor.
Javia
The article talks about how the Mets are short on pitching. So your solution is to trade Syndergaard from an area that is already a need, for another corner OF, of which they have too many already mlbnyyfan?
Dixon Miaz
Just a reminder that Phil Bickford badly damaged his promising future. Don’t do drugs kids
parkers
We keep talking like it is pre virus time. No one knows how it all will shake out with any of the sports. What will be the new norms? How will they effect the idea of public gatherings? If people aren’t able or at least not willing to attend games like the past, what will that do to team revenue? It team revenue takes a hit how will that effect team payrolls? I think most of what the article talked about is true fantasy talk.
mlbnyyfan
The Mets would never agree to it. I would get rid of Judge in a heartbeat he’s always injured. If he’s not healthy if/when baseball comes back get rid of him.
SirCheeto1
Thank God you’re not the GM of any team. Even when hurt, Judge has averaged a 5 WAR the past 2 seasons. Love how people like to act like Judge isn’t a Top 15 player in the game lol.
joeyrocafella
Top 15? Lol stop it
Rangers29
Losing Thor is huge, just huge. Let’s hope Wacha can bounce back and provide the Mets a decent 3,4,5 in their rotation. I just hope they don’t try to make/let Lugo start, he needs to be that lockdown reliever for them.
123redsox
Too bad DeGrom plays on such a trash team. He should be winning 15-20 games per year. Not 10-15
VonPurpleHayes
I hate the Mets, but calling them a trash team is ridiculous. They’re a legit playoff contender. Also the Mets play in a pitcher’s haven, so I doubt many starters want to leave.
MetsFan22
The park does help. But Degrom defense is horrible! Lol. He probably lowkey hates his defense.
wild bill tetley
Mets aren’t exactly Amazin’. Also doesn’t take that much to be a playoff contender with 5 spots up for grabs.
MetsFan22
Lol. Maybe 5 teams have a better roster than Mets this year. (Syndergaard healthy)
SirCheeto1
Off the top of my head, the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Twins, Braves, And A’s have better roster than the Mets, even with a healthy Thor.
MetsFan22
Nope I meant rosters you know for sure have a better roster….. Mets are 50/50 with rays twins and A’s.. don’t let the wins full you. The AL is cake….. the Braves are even a maybe if Diaz and Betances are good (people don’t realize what losing Donaldson will do to the Braves)
The Yankees Astros and dodgers are the only teams you could really say… the rest of the really good teams could range between 3-10 and we don’t know where they will be rn….
Rangers29
They mean in the N.L SirCheeto1… BTW if you look at the team ahead of the Mets in the N.L, You have the Dodgers, D-backs, Reds, Braves, and maybe Nats. That leaves the Nats, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, and Phillies to fight out that last WC spot. Without Syndergaard I think it’s the Nats to lose (despite the loss of Rendon).
MetsFan22
I think the dodgers are 1st and any of the teams you names could be 2nd… that’s just my opinion
Rangers29
If the Braves got one more pitcher than it would be Dodgers – Braves, but one pitcher makes a difference. Right now I think it goes set as Dodgers, Braves, D-backs, though I could seriously see Arizona being 2nd, I love their team and their organization.
MetsFan22
I agree with you on the Braves. If they added another pitcher they would be dangerous. I love Arizona’s team too! I just don’t think they are any different than the other teams.
Rangers29
By the start of 2021 I think that people will look at the D-backs and the Dodgers as equals (Crazy, I know). That will especially be the case if Betts leaves town. I love the way Mike Hazen has ran the D-backs, and I think of him as a top 3 gm in baseball. If the Braves can develop their highly-praised-starting-pitching-prospects then they will be fine, though right now I see them a little far back of the Dodgers.
jimthegoat
His fault for signing with them
mlbnyyfan
123RedSox. They should of traded Betts for DeGrom and others. I didn’t think Boston got nearly enough for Betts.
jim stem
Why? The Dodgers traded for Betts and he may never take the field for them.
Stevil
Is ridiculous rosterbating a side effect of covid-19?
texasguscc
The fan base would not tolerate a sell off unless they are completely out of it. Don’t forget that 21-5 streak last July/early August. With all those “win now” moves and that streak in their heads, no way the Mets become sellers. Just hoping the GM doesn’t sell away another young arm for the next washed up ex-client of his.
brucenewton
Looks like he’s not too sure about Mr.Met there.
Ted
Syndergaard would REALLY have to reach his ceiling to give the Mets the best 1-2 punch. I love DeGrom but Scherzer Strasburg anyone?
usafcop
Scherzer and Strasburg better tandem than deGrom and Thor because Thor can’t stay healthy and/or consistent….talent wise both pairs are pretty even though
VonPurpleHayes
Yea. While DeGrom is the cream of the crop, Syndergaard is often rated on his potential rather than his actual stats. The guy had 1 great year and a bunch of mediocre to decent seasons. Last year he wasn’t even the Mets second best pitcher. So while Noah has significant upside, the Nats 1-2 punch is better for sure. Although I still put DeGrom as the best in the league.
jim stem
Syndergaard has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball over the past three seasons. It’s Matt Harvey all over again.
“Stuff” simply hasn’t translated into results for anyone in this organization other than deGrom. I really wish my Mets would put more emphasis on a player’s brain and heart than his radar gun.
mlbnyyfan
I dare Mets to trade Thor to Yankees. Another dynasty would be coming
greg1
It’s funny to me that for all the pageantry around Thor and how the Mets ripped the Jays off in the Dickey trade, R.A. had more wins (49 in four years than Noah has in five (47). Both also have the same number of playoff appearances (2).
Of course I am not suggesting that R.A. is the better pitcher, but it is going to take Noah likely seven years to accomplish more for the Mets than it did in four for Dickey and the Jays. It’s just so hard to strap a rocket pack on to young flamethrowers when the incident of major injury is as high as it is now.
Hopefully Thor comes back and has a great run for a few years straight, hate to see a kid with this much talent suffer through injuries his whole career.
DrDan75
AJ Preller will probably give him a ridiculous contract in 2022 since he was not successful in prying him away from the Mets via trade. This is assuming the Padres don’t come to their senses by then with regard to Preller’s continued employment with the team.
Javia
The Mets tried to demand different combinations of Tatis, Paddack, Gore and Patino for Syndergaard. The Padres still have all of those guys and Syndergaard is on the shelf for a year and a half. Where exactly did Preller screw up?