As he waits with the rest of us for the return of baseball, Cubs southpaw Jon Lester chatted with Rob Bradford of WEEI.com about his current activities and future plans. It’s well worth a full read, but we’ll cover a few items of particular hot stove relevance.
Lester certainly doesn’t sound like a player who’s preparing to wrap up his career at the end of his contract. He spoke not only of preparing for the upcoming season but of his future on the mound.
Lester’s free agent deal includes a 2021 vesting/mutual option that would be guaranteed at $25MM if he throws 200 frames in 2020. (With a hefty $10MM buyout, the actual cost difference is $15MM.) The innings target will be prorated to account for a shortened season. Regardless, it’s difficult to imagine the Cubs letting him reach it.
“We’ll figure that out one way or the other,” says Lester. “I will either be here or be a free agent. … I’m open-minded to anything.”
Anything? Anything at all? It may not mean much, but Lester went on to drop an eyebrow-raising line that’s sure to pique the interest of Red Sox fans: “Absolutely it would be cool to go back and finish my career where it all started.”
As Lester noted, there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty to be dealt with before considering where he’ll throw in 2021. “Hopefully, I’m still a good enough caliber pitcher that the want of my services will still be out there for people,” he says. Lester went on to note: “I’m not getting any younger and coming off a year like I had last year, this [season delay] isn’t going to help me.”
It’s hard to imagine there won’t be a market for Lester’s services, even if he’s not the same guy he once was. He allowed more than four earned runs per nine for the second time in three seasons last year. ERA estimators didn’t expect better based upon his peripherals (4.26 FIP; 4.35 xFIP; 4.49 SIERA). Then again, Lester also made 31 starts again … as he has for a remarkable dozen-straight seasons. (Actually, he typically takes the ball 32 or 33 times.)
Lester may not be capable of producing to his own lofty standards, but he was still a quality rotation piece in 2019. He’s also not wrong that, at 36 years of age, his desirability on the open market will depend in large part upon what he’s able to show in 2020 — if indeed there is a season. Lester tells Bradford that he’s staying active but also trying not to “waste bullets down here in the backyard or at some high school,” instead saving them while waiting for “a date to ramp it up.” Here’s hoping he’ll have a chance to do so soon.
You should have always been a Red Sox look forward to getting you back
agreed. it was sad to see him go with Theo
Be fun to see but he’s only a #3/4 at this point
Still need a 3 and 4!
He’s a 1 or 2 on the Sox!
Agree. I was deeply disappointed when the Sox lowballed him in FA.
Ida been more disappointed if I signed him to the contract the Cubs did
Cubs fans aren’t. He was a key reason we got a ring. In fact the contract they signed him to started the process of contending and the Cubs won 98 games his first year and 102 I believe his second. He’s making 30+
Starts every year. That contract has been well, well worth it for the Cubs.
I’d have taken Jon’s contract over Price’s any day.
Are you kidding me? Lester’s deal was THE ONE that opened the floodgates for the Cubs to be able to sign premier free agents. It made them relevant.
Lester was worth every single penny, AND MORE, of his contract
Floodgates meaning Fowler Zob and Heyward? Looks like the water came from the sewer in this “flood”!
I will say the Cubs ( I mean Theo) are lucky the Indians couldnt scratch 1 more run out
Take away the Ring and Theo woulda been fired about 400 times for how he turned a team with so much young talent and a wide open payroll into well what you have today-
I know a bird in hand yada yada but theres a world where Theo wins the Ring and continues being a force…. Most Cubs fans are content with the 1 ring I guess and Ok with having to start at the bottom again. Im not a Cubs fan but if I were I think Id strive for more and be very weary of having Theo at the top
Ask yourself…If the Indians had scratched that run how would you feel today about Theo today?
Chicago won the WS. You lost this debate. Hang it up. Move on, JD.
JD the Cubs needed a guy like Lester badly. They won a WS with him and although he’s no longer worth his aav that’s part of these fa deals. Cole will be great for the Yanks(we assume) then he’ll start to tail off. The fact that Lester is still a viable starter after all he’s done is a good thing
@JD
You do not know much about baseball if you think the Cubs regret signing Lester. He lead them to the world series championship fool.
Oh JD you are doubling down fool?
First the Cubs did not sign Fowler they traded for him (from Houston). Wow you did not know that?
And excuse me but Fowler was not only terrific for the Cubs be had his best and career year in Chicago and was the offensive lynch pin of the Cubs 2016 world championship. The “you go we go” leadoff man the the Cubs.
Yea it was a great trade by Theo and yes in 2016 he was resigned for his best year and to win a championship.
And you think Theo made a bad deal? Haha laughing in your face fool.
I just would want 3 things from the RS. Lester, Cora, and the Brockstar.
Why would you want that cheating POS anywhere near your team?
What’s stopping you? All three are seemingly available, or at least imminently so?
Cora is suspended. Holt signed w Brew
brock holt is trash
But he’s a short white guy so he gets a statue.
Holt is a star among Redsox Nation. He may not be a baseball star but not everyone is. Holt is a star every other way, n yeah I know he’s with the Brewers, doesn’t mean I don’t want him back, like a remorseful Cora . I want him back too. I loved Lester his entire career, and I know it won’t happen but wish he would finish in Boston..
Jon Lester was a big loss for the Red Sox like Betts.
Good HOF discussion if he can have some more productive seasons. Not quite there but really good postseason career, over 150 innings with 2.51 ERA.
Glad the Red Sox botched that up, Cubs still be in a drought without Lester.
If you really want to be glad Start with Theo………….. then Lester then Rizzo then Lackey then Ross then Jed then ….. I live in Chi Town and was happy to help Cubbies out with ex Red Sox championship pedigree… as i called Wrigley,,, Fenway west……….LOL………
Definitely in the hall of very good. He wasn’t even the best lefty since he debuted (06). He has one huge thing on his side….he helped bring championships to two historic clubs in the Red Sox and Cubs.
Kershaw (08), Sale (10), Hamels (06 slightly better career), Bumgarner (09), David Price (08) estimators put ahead of Lester.
Hamels has 15+ more bWAR than Lester. That’s 3 additional All-Star caliber seasons. That’s a bit more than ‘slightly better.’
Lester:
Era+ 120
FIP 3.60
Hamels
Era+ 123
FIP 3.69
Slightly better was accurate using those measurements to compare them given the fact they both debuted in 06…..cool that you used other measurements.
Lester xfip 3.72
Hamels xfip 3.59
Not much difference in terms of how they were judged over the course of their pitching career.
Who uses WAR for pitchers? Geesh, you’re reaching now.
and, proving the A’s have some sort of postseason curse on them, Lester gave up 6 runs in the ’14 WC game despite having a career 2.51 ERA over 150 IP.
Jon’s one of my all time favorites, but his career is not HoF caliber.
One of the best Cubs big contract signings, I know he is more of a back end starter now, but earned his whole contract back in 2016 exceeded expectations which were ultra high in the first place that year.
Mad respect for that dude.
@hate….not one of the best…by far the best and most important, franchise changing signings in the history of the team.
4+ era, 170+ innings, 30+ starts……he’s no longer an ace but as a #4 or #5 he certainly has value given his durability. Could fetch 8-10 mill on a 1 or 2 year deal from a contender.
I can see the braves doing so if they can’t resign Hamels.
Braves make sense, as he lives in Georgia, but I think Cubs decline his $10 million option and sign him re-sign him to a smaller deal like $6-$8 million range.
How can the Cubs decline his $10 million option if its a buyout option? Think about it….it was an agreed upon figure if they didn’t pick up the $25 million option.
oops! I meant decline his $25 million option with $10 million buyout.
Thanks for pointing that out.
I personally do NOT envision the Cubs re-signing him. The $10M alone they have to pay him is more than he may be worth. Add another 8 – 10M and he just becomes too pricey for the cash-strapped Ricketts.
The Rickets are not cash strapped, they are like all other teams if in the same position in the past (Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers) ,and that is not wanting to be over the luxury tax for multiple years and continue to pay the increase taxes for doing so.
The $10 million buyout does not get included in the 2021 competitive balance payroll which is the one the Rickets are watching the most. They will have no issue giving him a $8-$10 million deal if they can reset the luxury tax at the same time.
It wouldnt be adding at that point-
The 10 mill is a fixed cost
The Red Sox should bring him in on a one or two year sendoff kind of deal. He still is a durable starter, and is a guarenteed 30+ starts a season. With the Sox going through a bit of a retooling phase, you could do a lot worse for a backend starter.
Retirement tours are always fun.
Lester, John Lackey, David Ross, and Theo Epstein are the only 3 (living) people to have earned both a Cubs and a Red Sox World Series Ring.
Possibly a scout or an office person was given both but to me that doesn’t really count.
I’m counting 4
Lester got a bit unlucky last season. His opponent BABIP was .347 when his career average is about .300. Not saying that if he lowers it, he’ll go back to being an ace or anything, but something like 2018 isn’t out of the question. Mid-3 ERA, FIP in the 4’s.
Guess I’m one of the few Sox fans that hasn’t missed him
Yup.
Yup
As a Yankees fan, I too want Lester to finish his career in Fenway.
Moving back to the AL as an older pitcher with diminished stuff. What could go wrong?
The Sox absolutely dropped the ball with Lester – low ball artists. Lester never should have gotten away in the first place.
Carl Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, & Hanley Ramirez appreciated the “low ball” Red Sox offers.
All guys who were signed from other teams and not extended.
You got lucky you didnt sign him to that contract-
Cubs overpaid, your offer was probably fair (dont know what it was)
Fastest way to bring a franchise down is signing your vets to over sized contracts
I’d probably say in order:
1. Cubs- They already have a financial obligation to him. They could decline the option and then resign him to a smaller deal (or give him $15 million which guarantees him the entire $25 million, but saves $10 on the luxury tax.)
2. Red Sox- If both sides truly want this to happen, I don’t see why it wouldn’t.
3. Braves- He lives in Georgia, they currently project to be in a better competitive spot than either the Cubs or Red Sox. They’ve had a knack for giving big one-year deals under the current regime (Keuchel, Donaldson, Hamels, Ozuna) Lester is the ideal player and contract situation for what Atlanta wants.
4. Dodgers- Bit of a wild card, but if 2020 happens and Lester is still productive, LA loves inking those kinds of vets to short-term deals. A productive Lester is an asset to all 30 teams.
There’s a few other possibilities, but I’d bet a good penny his next team is one of those four.
A minor correction: If they decline Lester’s option, they’d owe him $10 million that goes on their 2020 payroll, but DOES NOT affect their luxury tax. It’s an accounting maneuver that clears up money for the 2021 year. The idea would be that they decline it then sign him to say a $15 million deal for one year. Lester would walk away with the full $25 million he’s owed, but would only count $15 million against the 2021 luxury tax line.
Lesters not getting close to 15 next year crazy talk-
Depending on the price, I would think any of the NL East teams would be interested (except the Marlins).
I’d wager the Cubs will part with Lester after his contract is up. They need youth in the rotation
Love how players think it is ok to start pimping their services to other teams before their contracts are even up. What loyalty. Any of us gone to work and started talking about other places we would be shown the door, and even mentioning him for the Hall of Fame is a joke. Had he started his career any other place other than the East Coast he would of been thought of as a nice pitcher.
again, sports leagues are not like the jobs “any of us” have. stop acting like they are.
@yep…..I’m pretty sure he just answered the question he was asked. I’m pretty sure he didn’t post a resume on Indeed.
Philly please
A mid to bottom of the rotation guy who wants to be paid like a front of the rotation guy. The Cubs have been spending all sorts of money lately: seems like a good fit.
He earned his contract and deserves what he got. The Cubs knew what they were getting in to and they’d do it again.
He’s not a hall of famer but his case isn’t a joke just because you apparently don’t like him. I’ve heard cases for worse pitchers than him. He’s not getting in but any votes he gets won’t just be sympathy votes.
Lester has 45+ WAR, literally all players who have that much WAR are the players who stay on ballots a while, that’s like an unofficial mark that officially, this guy has a good case to get in (doesnt mean they will see Rolen, Scott).
But Lester might actually get in anyway, he’s about 5-10 WAR away from sealing his case IMO.
He’s got a shot if he can stay healthy for 2-3 more years. He’s not a first ballot guy, but if he sees his voting totals rise each year he could clear the 75% barrier in his final years of eligibility.
@earm…..where did he say he wants to be paid like a top of the rotation guy? Did you completely miss the paragraph where he says that he hopes he’s good enough for someone to want him, he’s not getting younger, and not playing now can’t be good after last season’s numbers?
Depending on what he does this season. 14-7 or around there. They’ll pick up his option. However if he has a .500 season or worse he’ll get a buy out and return to Boston and if he does the cubs window will then close temporarily. By then they’ll have extended Baez, Rizzo and Bryant.
And this will be based on his Win-Loss record?
The loss of a Sp 5 is going to ruin the Cubs?
Tell me more please
Lester is the #3 at worst. It was just a suggestion. Why would it ruin the cubs?
W-L record doesn’t matter, besides it’s going to be highly unlikely when baseball resumes that any pitcher will win much more than 14 games.
No pitcher is going to get 32 starts. It’s obvious that they are going to play a shortened season and odds are it will be condensed on top of that so most teams will go with a six man rotation.
If baseball starts in June odds are they will play 100-120 games. Given normally they have five starters, that is only 20-24 starts. Assuming it’s going to be a six man rotation it’s going to be 17-20 starts.
It’s going to come down to wether or not the Cubs think Lester is worth 15 million or not.
When you look at the market and the fact the Cubs will have to replace Chatwood and Quintana regardless, I think it’s pretty safe say baring some kind of injury or a complete disaster, the Cubs pick up that option.
If Lester pitches well in 2020 then the Cubs will pick up his option as it will count 15 million against the cap. If he pitches poorly and the Cubs pay his 10 million buy out… well that tells you all you need to know.
Another thing, the author mentioned that he couldn’t see the Cubs letting him get to his prorated inning limit which would turn his option to a vesting option? Does the author just flat out think the Cubs are tanking? Does he think the Cubs are bitter with Lester? If he is pitching well, regardless if the Cubs are in the playoff hunt or not, Lester is going to pitch because, as I said, if he pitches well they are going to pick up his option regardless.