One of the wild cards of the 2020 season will be the development of 25-year-old outfielder Nomar Mazara, who will look to finally break out, this time in a new environment. By now, Mazara has had four whole seasons to prove himself at the Major League level, and in 2019 he was largely the same player as he was when he debuted with the Rangers in 2016. Last year was critical for the marriage between Mazara and the Rangers; if Mazara were to establish himself as a building block for Texas, he needed to take the leap that the club has been expecting since it signed him in 2011 as an amateur. Unfortunately, that progress didn’t really come, and the Rangers dealt Mazara to the outfield-needy White Sox in December.
At 6’4″ and 215 lbs., Mazara looks the part of an MLB slugger: his frame alone is enough to convince spectators that he’s got superstar potential. He’s almost in the Giancarlo Stanton/Joey Gallo class of physicality, and his mammoth home runs lend credence to that comparison—Mazara hit the longest homer in MLB last year with a Statcast-measured 505-foot blast. When Mazara gets into one, your eyes light up at the thought of him mashing with regularity.
But the fact of the matter is that Mazara has yet to hit more than 20 homers in a season, and has in fact never put up a season of even 1.0 WAR by FanGraphs’ measure (Baseball-Reference agrees). It’s been frustrating for Rangers fans to follow his development, not because he’s been a bad player, but simply because they recognize he could be so much more.
While his average exit velocity of 89.1 mph only ranked in the 51st percentile last year, his hardest-hit balls tell a different story: his maximum exit velo, 114.6 mph, ranked number 41 among all MLB hitters. That’s something you might expect from a perennial 30-homer guy, not someone who’s plateaued at the 20-home run threshold. So what’s holding him back?
For one thing, his ceiling has thus far been limited by just average on-base skills: Mazara has never walked at a rate higher than 9% in a single season, meaning that his yearly on-base percentage has consistently hovered around .320, which is just about MLB-average. Even when he does tap into his prodigious power, that leaves him a step below the likes of Gallo or Stanton, who command enough respect from pitchers—and are disciplined enough—to generate above-average walk rates.
Last year, Mazara was at his most aggressive since entering the big leagues: he swung the bat more often at pitches both inside and outside the zone, and that change yielded mixed results. As you might expect, more swings means that he also missed more often than ever, though that didn’t adversely affect his strikeout rate. His walk rate was the lowest of his career, but the more assertive Mazara was able to post his best hard-hit and slugging numbers yet, though not by a huge margin.
But none of that looks to be the driving force behind Mazara’s stagnation; we’ve seen plenty of players put up big power numbers with subpar plate discipline. To this point in his career, the most frustrating part of Mazara’s game is the frequency with which he does damage. Mazara just hasn’t been able to get to that power as often as we’d like to see. And whether he reaches his ceiling in Chicago seems to hinge on one particularly troubling facet of his game, and that’s his inability to pull the ball in the air.
To preface: generally, pulling fly balls is an undeniably good thing, at least for players with the strength to swing for the fences: in 2019, MLB hitters posted a cumulative wRC+ on pulled grounders of -5. That’s really bad. 100 denotes average, so we’re talking about 105% below average. On the other hand, that number for pulled fly balls was an astronomical 403. So pulling the ball tends to be a profitable endeavor for MLB sluggers. That’s no surprise, and it’s the reason baseball has experienced a “fly ball revolution” in the last half-decade.
But Mazara has thus far been unable to take advantage of that revolution. When he pulls the ball, the results just haven’t been there simply because he hits the ball on the ground too often: in 2019, 66% of the balls Mazara hit to right field were grounders, by the far the least favorable outcome for a player of his stature. In essence, the best way to get extra-base hits—fly balls to the pull field—just haven’t been a significant weapon in Mazara’s arsenal. When he does pull the ball, he simply isn’t doing as much damage as he could be by elevating the ball. That’s been the case for his entire career, and frankly I think it’s the single biggest thing preventing Mazara from becoming an All-Star.
Interestingly, the same trend isn’t true of his hits to the opposite field: in fact, he hit the ball in the air much more often when going to left field (54.1 FB%, compared to just 23.9 GB%), and that translated to better results: Mazara posted a 139 wRC+ when going the other way, which is well above league average. His production on opposite field swings gives us a glimpse of what could be if he’s able to generate a similar batted-ball distribution to his pull field. And one figures those numbers would only get better when he pulls the ball, where it’s easier for hitters to get to their strength. He’s capable of elevating the ball, and good things happen when he does, but to this point he’s failed to do so when it’s most advantageous.
He’ll get the starting right field gig with the White Sox this summer, and while Chicagoans might have preferred their team to go after someone with a more solid track record, the fruits of acquiring Mazara might be sweeter than any other outfielder on the market. The South Siders have had success developing young players in recent years, and Mazara could fit right in with their burgeoning young core. So whatever the mechanical or mental source of the trend we described above, they’ll hope the player development staff can unlock what Texas couldn’t and tap into Mazara’s electric talent. That could make the difference between whether he merely tantalizes with his potential, or actualizes it.
dynamite drop in monty
My statistical OCD really wished he could have hit just one more jack last year.
Eatdust666
Yeah, but it would’ve meant that he would’ve had 70 runs scored instead of 69.
dynamite drop in monty
Ketchup!!!??? Catsup???!!!
aias
These pretzels are making me thirsty!
dynamite drop in monty
Fax me some halibut?
cysoxsale
But if it was a 3 run homerun he would have had 69 rbi
brucenewton
DH vs RHP only
just here for the comments
Isaac got all the brains and Wayne got all the talent, am I right, Bruce?
Coal tender
Ranger management had tried to get him to change his batting stance to no avail. He refused which added to management’s frustration with him. He has a tendency to hit a lot of ground balls that betrays his enormous hitting potential. Four years is enough to say maybe he will fulfill his potential in a different ball park. Wish him well – a good teammate.
DarkSide830
i think he’ll break out this year. he improved last year and people forget just how young he still is.
DTD_ATL
25 years old and 4 seasons in the bigs and you’d think he would be willing to change something to get to that next level as a player. It’s sounds to me like he may be a bit lazy and selfish.
Eatdust666
You would think the same for Robinson Cano since he’s 37 years old and this would be his 16th season if it doesn’t get completely wiped out by COVID-19, but he’s still a lazy and still jogs to first base more often than he should. One would’ve thought he would’ve learned sometime before his Yankees contract ran out, but some people will never change and apparently he’s one of them and that’s a shame, because he’s had a very good career. Sucks that it also includes a 80 game PED suspension in 2018.
baseball10
Molina is by far my least favorite mlb player. The guy can do or say anything he wants and get away with it. Im not big on Cano either. Both arrogant
throwinched10
The vast majority of “lazy” players in the bigs latino. I saw the same thing in college and university. The are also the most talented on average.
dynamite drop in monty
All cool. Another prejudiced bigot. Love this site.
jonbluvin
This is a disgusting comment.
Jeff Zanghi
I agree I think a lot of people forget how young he is. Yes he’s had 4 years in the majors already BUT he is also still only 25 years old — some guys don’t even make it to the majors yet by that age. So while yes, I think the natural thing is to have wished he’d have broken out by now — it is still VERY possible that he will as he rounds out into his “prime” — I definitely think he has the potential to be great, and hope he does take that giant step forward people have been expecting for years now — it would be a nice story to see!
oz10
We have been saying that in Texas the past 2 years.
Stevil
He hit RHPs pretty well last season, but he faced a lot of lefties and struggled against them. If Chicago can’t fix him, he could still see the lion’s share of PAs and simply be paired with a RHH for a platoon.
Rangers29
Such a frustrating player to watch, like the article said, he swung at everything and wasn’t good at it. He goes down as another international free agent the Rangers screwed up in development. Yes, he is an average MLB player, but just average. He could be the next Nelson Cruz like slugger, but it didn’t happen. Wish we could’ve gotten more than Steele Walker for him, but beggars can’t be choosers. I hope he turns it around in Chicago.
Ricky Adams
Dont know what to think of him or odor. Both have shown flashes of being brilliant players, but just haven’t put it together consistently in the majors. Almost enough to make me question our development team when u considered mazara, odor, brinson, gallo up until last season, but he still hasnt put it together over a entire season or back to back seasons, even going as far back as chris davis. Texas and ggggglobelife used to have hitting. Spilling out of their dugout but hasnt been case recently
walls17
Always an OOTP god though in versions 16 and 17. Always a stud
Dom2
The White Sox and Padres make losing games this year 100x worse.
Javia
How so?
Steel32
Something I heard about Mazara back in early March was that he was playing with a thumb injury in 2018 and 2019. So it may be possible for him to be a good player if he is healthy.
CowboysoldierFTW
I will say he was always very nice at Fanfest. Seemed to have a great personality and be a good teammate… but he just never hit like us fans expected.
toooldtocare
Not really sure why the Rangers soured on Nomar, except they have a propensity to “get in the mind” of them….Profar, Kiner-Falefa, and starting to ride Calhoun. He battled through injuries the last couple of seasons. When he was healthy, was a good clutch hitter. If the Pale Hose give him a legitimate shot to be an everyday player, I think he will flourish. I’m a Rangers STH, and have seen signs of brilliance out of him, plus has tremendous power. I know I’ll get raked over this comment, but I believe he will be a better all around ball player than Gallo. Be kind please!
dynamite drop in monty
They had enough of his macho head games.
oz10
A big part of it was that he was a lefty and the Rangers are way too lefty in their lineup. He became the odd man out.
whosyourmomma
So they traded him for a left handed hitting outfielder that is like 15 months younger than him? I realize that Walker is controllable for much longer though.
Strike Four
Rangers Front Office really blew it with this. He’s only 24 and had a .786 OPS last year.
pplama
A .786 OPS for a RF was very bad in 2019. 4% below avg offensive production.
You know Sox players. Think non-.400 BABIP Avi Garcia. Stud on paper. Dud at the plate.
chitown311
K.
Paulie0514
The soft cream filling is needed in Twinkie town pplama, go be a part of it.
bitteroldman
Worst case scenario is Mazara has his usual season and he;s a placeholder until one of several OF prospects is ready or the Sox bring in an outside talent. The Sox gave up a player (Steele) who’s defensive skills suggest he play a corner OF spot but doesn’t have the offensive numbers for that position. Classic tweener. of a sort.
Best case Mazara starts elevating more pitches and develops into the player the Rangers thought they were getting. The Sox would then be deep in the OF and positioned to trade young controllable talent to fill any needs
Brett The Wolfman
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Stevil
Na, the worst case is that he ends up being a platoon bat. It’s weird that the author didn’t mention his splits.
Best case, he figures out how to hit lefties and becomes an above-average regular.
Brett The Wolfman
So he batted 4th last year for the Rangers and had pressure on him. He will bat 8th or 9th and we will be happy with 20HR 75 RBI”s and he can absolutely do that and anything else is sugar on top. A change of scenery with a new coach that is Latin and bilingual could bring a new attitude and all that great young talent that is close to his age can be inspiring and he will be hitting in a hitters ballpark with very little pressure. And I think he was much better in the 2nd half or first half of last year and yes his thumb was messed up. Maz will have his breakout season this year and If not we only gave up Steale Walker who has a superstar name but Maz is going to put it together and then be part of a deadly offense for the next 5 years in his prime and you all are going to enjoy it. You are going to love it. And you won’t admit it because you didn’t even know you felt this way but it is one of your dreams and girls boys and transgenders. Dreams come true. Subscribe to my YouTube channel as you will be bribed. You have 3 days
Brett The Wolfman
Just wanted you guys to know who I am and then I’ll lock myself in my basement and not post here for 2 days but here is Kurt Angle. Please suscibe to my YouTube channel. I’ll pay pal or cash app you $5 and then I do random cash prizes and a guy just won $50.
youtu.be/IuAsGwmhI2M
If the link does not work just type in Brett The Wolfman In to YouTube and 600 videos will pop up so suscibe and then I’ll owe you a favor. And yes I do consider myself a creative genius but I just want to fit in here but I have yet to be welcomed with open arms so give me a virtual hug. Because I’m special and last thing I do have a service dog so he will be by my side just in case I feel attacked just like one time at basketball. If that dog had not been there I would of felt some anxiety So thank all gods from all religions he was there. Thanks for letting me introduce myself and I’m glad we are now friends. And I’m guessing there is a big chance most of you want to talk directly to me so my phone number is 4048890679. And don’t shy I’ll talk baseball I’ll talk pro wrestling or I’ll talk about the eventual end of the world. It’s your world squirrel
drasco036
You mean to tell me all he has to do is strike out less and walk more? Fascinating!
Priggs89
You must not have read the article.
ChefAl
A little juice will help him pull the ball into the seats. Nelson Cruz help a brother out.
ASapsFables
Advanced stats seem to prove that Nomar Mazara is a slugging enigma. It’s also odd that a comprehensive article of this duration fails to mention two other issues regarding Mazara, his poor splits versus left-handed pitching and his nagging injuries.
stevep-4
He is going to platoon, will likely bat 6th or 7th, and will be another swinger in a very free swinging team that will be fun to watch. Anything more than that will be a bonus.
DixieSnoop
Having the same hitting coach as Moncada and Tim Anderson would have been a good start.
wordonthestreet
Well the White Sox fired the hitting coach so that is not going to happen