In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR – just for the fun of it! Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams. You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.
So far, we’ve covered the Padres, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Twins, Royals, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles. The Dodgers are up next.
First, we’ll remove free agents Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Blake Treinen, Joc Pederson, Alex Wood, Enrique Hernandez, Pedro Baez, and Jimmy Nelson from consideration. Next, we’ll add Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen to our protected list by virtue of their no-trade rights (Jansen will acquire ten-and-five rights this year). We’ll lock in Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Brusdar Graterol, and Tony Gonsolin as Baseball America Top 100 prospects with a 2020 ETA (they’ve actually all already arrived in the Majors). I’ll also lock in another six players, giving us these 12:
Clayton Kershaw
Kenley Jansen
Cody Bellinger
Walker Buehler
Max Muncy
Will Smith
Corey Seager
Julio Urias
Gavin Lux
Dustin May
Tony Gonsolin
Brusdar Graterol
That leaves three spots for the following 14 players:
Scott Alexander
Austin Barnes
Matt Beaty
Caleb Ferguson
Dylan Floro
Joe Kelly
Adam Kolarek
A.J. Pollock
David Price
Edwin Rios
Dennis Santana
Josh Sborz
Ross Stripling
Chris Taylor
With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below (direct link here), select exactly three players you think the Dodgers should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.
I’d have to think more but I may rather protect 4 additional guys and drop Gonsolin. They have several prospects with better upside than him
Huh? Gonsolin looked good and is absolutely worth protecting. He is by far a better choice than anyone on the leftover list. You don’t have to protect prospect who’s ETA are beyond 2020.
Lunacy
Who are these “better upside” prospects in the top 100?
that’s less of a crunch then i thought. id go Stripling, Ferguson, and Rios
That’s spot on! Rios is going to be a beast just you wait.
I agree in that I think they’d keep one of the kids — Rios or Santana — over Taylor. But I’d keep Beaty as opposed to Ferguson.
yeah im not a big Rios guy myself, but i still think he stands head and shoulders above some of the other young non-pitchers here.
okay, i think Price may be useful for the Dodgers, but how do you protect him on that contract?
I was counting Price out because of his contract too, but were only paying half of it. Price for 3 years at $16M is a good deal for LA, but then again, why waste a pick on him when an expansion team won’t pick up Price at $32M a year.
I think the expansion team would only assume the Dodgers’ portion of the payment in this kind of scenario, so Price would be a moderately appealing selection, but probably still not what an expansion team would be interested in given the risk of injury and how unlikely it is for an MLB expansion team to make a Golden Knights-style immediate contention push. Price is a fair value at the rate the Dodgers pay for him, but still not that much of a tradeable asset for an expansion team
16 per is going to get a lot more in 2021 than it would in 2019 remember that
That made me descion to exclude Price a lot easier
99% sure that if the expansion team takes Price they are on the hook for everything, not just the part the Dodgers are paying. If I’m wrong I’m sure someone will tell me.
think you are right, but i do wonder if his deal is, sox pay half, with price getting 2 checks (1 from boston, 1 from dodgers), or if dodgers pay full salary, with sox sending them half.
cause the first way implies if picked, new team would owe price half pay, sox other half.
second way says new team pays 100 percent, dodgers get 16 million per year from sox anyways (which would be a win for the dodgers in that case. getting 16 million a year in free money, along with luxury tax relief as a result, while not having to pay price a cent).
I wouldn’t waste a spot on Price. Even tough he’s serviceable he’s far from irreplaceable. If an expansion team wants to take on that contract they can be my guest.
Why protect Barnes, low floor not much of a ceiling and they’re stacked at the position with elite prospects. Taylor will be due a huge raise and is fungible and LA has cheaper assets like Beaty and Rios to play OF. .
im not sure if you are sayng to drop barnes and keep taylor beaty and ross or drop barnes and taylor and keep beaty and ross.
With Barnes who is your catcher unless you expect Will Smith to catch all your games. I dont think there is anyone else in the minors to cover the position and also Barnes offers you some versatility as he played a couple of other positions as well which pretty much every other backup catcher do not and basically a once a week roster spot gone to waste.
I only like Taylor because he basically plays every where on the diamond and gives you the super sub that can basically give everyone rest. Also if i remember right didnt he even throw an inning or two in relief as well? Basically another zobrist.
Taylor just signed a 2 year extension that bought out his last 2 years of arbitration so he’s quite cost-effective as well – i think the Dodgers are very unlikely to let him go given that Hernandez is a free agent after this season. They wouldn’t want to be without both of their multipositional dudes.
@roll
It’s the offseason. Lots of extra catchers to choose from.
I know I’m a party pooper and this is supposed to be for fun but if you partake in the eventual draft, at what point will you be assessing and reassessing? it sounded fun I theory but with so many teams to go through, it got stale real quick. Just my take. That said, why not go through real past expansion drafts? I remember as a young kid I was pissed when Boston lost Dick Pole to Seattle.
Why?
More fun to actually see if the teams protected the right players.
I went with Barnes, Taylor, Stripling. Stripling was a shoo in for me, but Barnes and Taylor were much tougher calls. In the end, just felt that LAD was going for it and protecting starters / immediate depth was a stronger play than protecting prospects who are outside the top 100 and are blocked right now.
Edit: Pollock or Price were easy to leave off. Even if they are taken, LAD can replace the value in FA with the $$ savings.
The decision to exclude minor leaguers without a 2020 ETA makes this a lot easier. You can boil these players down into 3 categories:
Arbitration-elligible guys with reasonable contracts
Guys on big to questionable free agent deals
Relievers
Taylor, Barnes, Stripling etc are all in the first category. Price, Pollock, Kelly are the 2nd. Kolarek, Alexander, etc the 3rd.
Once you look at it that way, it’s clear the Dodgers are most likely to protect the guys in the first category and count on the contract status to protect some of the more expensive guys (or just be glad to get the contract off the books), Price, Pollock and even Kelly are likely to contribute to the Dodgers over the next few years, but they’d probably not complain if they got to ditch those contracts in full.
It’s unlikely they would protect mostly-replaceable relievers like Kolarek or Alexander.
So it’s Stripling, Taylor, and Barnes,
The only thing I would maybe consider is a replacement for Barnes from one of the young guys (like Beaty), but the reality is that Beaty is a bat-only player without a position in the NL and the Dodgers have plenty of other bats with that profile to replace him with. Even a marginal catcher like Barnes is more valuable. Ferguson is a potential inclusion instead of Barnes but hasn’t really played well in 2 years and has an even more limited track record of MLB success than Barnes does. If it’s not Barnes, it’s Ferguson. All of the pure relievers are not a consideration at all.
In a real expansion draft, this would get a lot harder because the Dodgers would have to make more decisions about guys who are about to crack the 40 man, and it’s likely the expansion draft would not be timed such that all of the pending FA are still FA (and re-signing a couple of those free agents starts to make the protected list much, much harder to construct).
What is the fascination on this board with Ferguson (ERA almost 5.0) ? On a middling team without pitching depth maybe see if he can work out his problems and develop into a reliable pitcher, but LA cannot afford to wait until he figures it out. How much longer does he get? Beaty 1B and LF, left – handed power, cheap.
The Dodgers have no shortage of left-handed power and generally value players with positional versitility, Beaty really doesn’t appear to have the bat to fit on a Dodger roster as exclusively a corner player (that bar is pretty high).
Ferguson is viewed by many as a decent back-end starter candidate who has really not had the opportunity to flourish or develop because he’s been trapped in an organization that is so deep and shuttered off to bullpen duty. In his initial MLB showing he was an excellent reliever and the Dodgers (and others) think very highly of his stuff; in 2019 he really lost the ability to locate his breaking pitches and performed very poorly at the MLB level, but many scouts (and Dodgers’ players themselves) compare his curveball with Kershaw’s and view him as having a much higher upside than you might assume from his initial profile.
His name came up for a while in variations of the Betts trade – there are others in the industry who still regard him as being somewhat like Stripling – a pitcher who would likely contribute at the back to the middle of most team’s rotations but who never really gets anything resembling a decent chance due to the Dodgers’ extreme pitching depth.
That kind of extreme high-spin, over the top left-handed curveball is the sort of thing that modern player development staffs get really excited about, and indeed in 2018 when he was throwing it for strikes he was very effective.
Beaty’s a better selection than Rios who played above his prospect status last year, but he would have to be even better than that in order to deserve a spot on a Dodger roster that is so thick at the corners (and he’s an inexperienced and not very skilled outfielder, as he’s mostly been one of those ‘all he does is hit, can’t play the field 1b’ types for his minor league career. The Dodgers, as you might have noticed, are pretty thick with high-quality left-handed bats and don’t really have reps at 1b to give to him with Lux, Muncy, Bellinger, etc around. His best chance to stick on the roster is to develop enough as an outfielder to take over Pederson’s platoon role after he hits free agency, but that would require him to rake against right handers – Pederson is a top 15 bat in MLB against RHP.
You really cant look at a guys era in such a short peroid like that when hes trying to figure it out on the fly and has been jacked around in multiple directions- Verlanders era was over 4 after 500 inns and 4 years into the bigs as reference
Ferg first of all is left handed, secondly has shown to be great already in stretches – Hes done pretty much everything we could ask all the while being asked to be on the taxi cab squad for a good part of 2 years
I wish they would just make him a 2 inn Rp- He was doing well in thatb role for a while then came down with inj and its been an uphill battle since then –
Sadly I couldnt protect him in my own exercise and I def think he would get swooped by an expansion draft – He was 5th on my list behind D San mostly bc DSantana has more remaining years left
Ferguson would not be one of the top 15 relievers available in an expansion draft. He wouldn’t be one of the top 6-7 starters either. Therefore, you would not have to worry about him being taken.
I am going: Rios, Ferguson and Kolarek. Mostly for the control, but I could easily swap out Kolarek for Stripling due to the new rules about facing 3 batters minimum.
This isn’t as tough as I thought it’d be. Price, Kelly and Pollock don’t need to be protected because of their contract. It’s really down to Beaty, Ferguson, Rios, Stripling, and Taylor for the 3 spots. Strip and CT are pretty close to locks due to their versatility. I went with Ferguson for the last spot because his youth and long-term upside. Thoughts?
It depends entirely if you believe Ferguson is still a potential MLB starter and if you think the industry agrees with that. Ferguson’s name came up during the many negotiations of the Betts deal – if he’s regarded as a potential starter, he’s a lot more valuable than he is as a pure reliever. No non-Hader quality relief pitcher is worth protecting.
For all that Barnes has fallen off, he’s still an asset because the bar to be a valuable catcher offensively is so incredibly low. Teams would still want him, especially given he’s still in arbitration and quite cheap.
And indeed in the early voting both Taylor and Stripling are getting picked by over 50% of people so it seems like it’s really a pretty solid consensus that they’re the most obvious selections.
Anybody not protecting Stripling is insane. He’s so criminally underrated
So under -rated hes probably over- rated now
Stripling, Talyor, Rios. Most of the others are too expensive or under control for not enough years to be of much interest to a theoretical expansion team. Beaty and Rios are toss-ups.
Yea I was wondering if an expansion team would even have interest in Taylor for only 1 year at 8.5 –
Not a gamble Id want to make but it would be nice to protect DSan or Caleb this way
Stripling, Beaty and Rios make the most sense to protect. Stripling is criminally underrated and would serve as a three on most of the rotations in the game. Beaty and Rios have some versatility and both are strong bats. Losing the versatility of Taylor would hurt but the Dodgers have McKinstry nearly ready for the show and a strong farm system to replenish losses like Ferguson and the big contracts of Pollock and Price.
Beaty
Rios
Kelly
Joe Kelly?
I chose some cheap, younger guys. D. Santana, Stripling, and Beaty.
Stripling is reliable and versatile, not a world beater, but a nice piece to have on a contending team. Beaty has pop, he’s young, controllable, and an obvious DH solution. I had to choose between D. Santana and Edwin Rios now, both I know hardly about, other than the fact that they are both higher ranked in the Dodgers top 20 prospects. Santana was chosen purely because the Dodgers have enough bats. They can always use pitching depth.
I want to note that I do not think it’s important who I chose here, it’s important to note, however, who I didn’t choose. Price and Pollock can leave, I’m not going to keep those contracts. There was a little…tiny.. voice inside of my head that thought about keeping Price because they didn’t take on his whole contract, and he’s still a decent pitcher. But they have Gonsolin, May, Kershaw, Buehler, Wood, and Julio Urias, plus even if the Dodgers as getting rid of JUST a 15 mil dollar deal… they’re still getting rid of 15 mil! Plus Pollock’s outrageous contract, and you’ve got enough money saved to sign Mookie back with just that lol!
TLDR; Dodgers are good… like really good
I did the same except I substituted Beaty for Taylor
Careful now theres a lot of Dodger fans who view Pollack as still on a decent contract somehow right now/ be weary they dont play kind
I dont agree that the Dodgers have that much hitting waiting in the wings- Pitching yes but the next wave of hitters are not that spectacular outside of Lux/Ruiz
It would be nice to see Hoese and Bush take the leap but guys like Rios Barnes Peteres Amaya Estevez are not that special imo- Even Beaty who I like has limitations…. Outside of Ruiz I dont know if we have a bonified MLB starter in the system right now on offense past Double AA…….. Red Sox scamming Jeter Downs was def a hit for the system offensively
Vargas would fit in that mold of a plus hit tool. But the main question is do the Dodgers need impact hitters beyond Lux at this moment? I’d argue there’s no place for them to play especially at the upper levels, so comp pieces are what’s needed for this iteration of the team. The next wave of hopefuls in Hoese, Bush, Vargas, and Cartya hopefully come around the right time. While I’m in the same boat about guys like Peters who is toolsey, but great chance to bust, I somewhat disagree with Ruiz being spectacular. He’s going through the growing pains of a young catcher who still needs time/development. I’d argue though that the filler pieces who can really hit, but may not be stars in guys like Estevez, Reks, etc. are still extremely valuable to fit in and provide more of a value than the Beaty’s and Rios’s of their farm.
And while I agree Pollock is still on a pretty decent contract, it’s not like it changes the fact that he’s superfluous.
I agree theres not a huge need I just think the perception is we are the Dodgers are we are totally loaded for the future all the time- I would like a staple OF in the system, I thought that might have been Marsh when Strip was dealt and would have been happy to trade an excess in pitching for a young OF even though Strip is more MLB ready at this point
With Pitching luckily thats true! But with hitting I wouldnt really say we are any better than most teams with talents on the farm….Thats ok we dont have to be, Im not a fan of the OKC Dodgers I just wanted to point that out-
I disagree on Ruiz, I think hes a Mlb starter with a 10-15 year career in the wings- Think Miguel Montero (ish) (which is a compliment) Im very happy we might have a Smith/Ruiz combo in 2021 with oodles of arb years behind them and no need to pay a guy like Realumuto a billizion dollars
I think we are agreeing though, we dont need a buncha ready guys right now, we just graduated Smith Lux Verdugo Beaty on the offensive side in the last 18 months and thats quite a crop and something to be proud of-
I do worry about the next wave, whenever that may be, isnt going to be quite as impactful and I think the notion around the league is it thinks it will be- But what I do hold faith in is that our player develepment is second to none so if these guys have it in the tank I think we have good odds in drawing it out
This seems pretty easy without minor league portion: Strip, Taylor, and Price. I know Beaty became somewhat of a fan favorite, but he’s a LF/DH whose skill set is somewhat easily replace. Much the same with Rios 1B/DH a platoon bat with a similar skill set and defensive deficiencies. In Taylor you get an above average offensive player, not a superstar mind you, that plays good to great defense everywhere. Strip much the same with the value. And even though Price is expensive, we’ve seen the value of a vet with upside numerous time in the playoffs. They’d be asking him basically do what Hill did at the same price and contract. Beyond just the idea a #3-4 playoff arm is important, trying to upgrade 2 arms in preparation for the playoff rotation is going to cost you significantly more value than anything you could potentially leave unprotected.
This depth makes me smile every time I see it. 😀
“Makes me kind of jealous”- Every other team in baseball except for the Yankees.
I went Ferguson, Floro, and Taylor. I should’ve picked Stripling over Floro, wasn’t paying attention to who was on the list.
I went with Rios Stripling and Taylor … It hurt not protecting Ferguson (I may have actually kept him over Gonsolin if given the chance but what can ya do)
You cant do that !!
Beaty, Taylor and Stripling
I went that as well…was pretty easy I can see DSantana as a close 4th
Stripling, Taylor, Ferguson.
I expect we will lose Beaty in the draft which sucks – but is manageable.
Most of the votes are hard to find players worth keeping. A few like the Dodgers make it hard to narrow it down to only keep 3
Matt Beaty
Edwin Rios
Dennis Santana or Caleb Ferguson
Stripling
Beaty
Ferguson
Keep the youth!
If you follow the team close, this isn’t too tough but I guess was kinda fun considering what’s going on, or not going on. Barnes, Stripling, Taylor. They aren’t the 3 best players but they are the 3 that give the most production above their contract
Beaty Taylor Stripling
Dennis Santanna was next and ferguson after that …this one was easier than Imagined it
If you want to take Dennis over 1 year of Taylor only Im ok with that but w Lad being in such win now I took the year of Taylor
Im really interested in how Rios develops. I was ready to write off his production as a small sample size but when I took a closer look at him I realized he isn’t that simple.
His strike out rate IS off the hook. I know a lot of fans would love to see Rios work on plate discipline but then his aggressive approach at the plate may be what’s working for him, creating the value he DOES have at the plate. It MIGHT be that he would be worse. But for now you have to acknowledge his bat is quite valuable.
So is his glove so bad, combined with his high strike out rate enough to knock him all the way down to 17? Yes, I know the Dodgers have one of the best farms in baseball but this guy was putting up some pretty nasty OPS’s in the minors as well as his short sample in the majors. Is his glove really that bad?
My problem with Rio is he doesnt command the plate-
Yes its ok to strike out a million times but you have to at least command the plate, strike some fear into the pitcher, talk a walk, work the count so you can get in a favorable count to get a good pitch to hit etc etc etc- It almost feels like hes got a blindfold on and just taking vicious hacks if you watch his abs
I dont see in it Rios….Hes a bad ball hitter and in the minors you will get enough bad balls to put up some good numbers at the end regardless of the ks-
Now you reach the majors, those bad balls dont get seen as often, those pitchers learn how to manipulate your weaknesses….where does he go from there? Is he capable of adjusting?
, I havent seen the growth there and hes almost 27 years old…. If he was 22 id be much more optimistic- The clock is ticking and its almost out of time….he needs a breakthrough and it needs to come soon
Id much rather take the lower upside Beaty whoes already shown he can re-adjust to MLB pitchers and has a great command of the plate for so little expierence-
I went with all the locks, Betts, Stripling and Barnes.
For the record, I am assuming that Betts gets an extension.