Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi entered the majors with quite a bit of fanfare heading into the 2019 season. At that point, Kikuchi was coming off a terrific eight-year tenure as a member of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Seibu Lions, with whom he posted a 2.77 ERA and put up 8.0 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 across 1,010 2/3 innings. Kikuchi parlayed that run into a high-paying contract with the Mariners, who signed him to a four-year, $56MM guarantee. It’s an unusual deal – one that could keep him in Seattle for as few as three years and as many as seven, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams explained at the time.
For now, the Mariners may be disappointed in their investment. Kikuchi struggled mightily during his first major league season, and there don’t seem to be many clear reasons to expect a turnaround. Starting with some optimism, it’s nice that Kikuchi amassed 161 2/3 innings, approaching the career-high 163 2/3 he accrued during an NPB season. But while Kikuchi ranked a respectable 59th in innings last year, he wasn’t very productive otherwise.
Among 70 pitchers who threw at least 150 frames, Kikuchi ranked last in FIP (5.71) and home runs per nine (2.00), second from the bottom in ERA (5.46) and 10th last in K/BB ratio (2.32; 6.46 K/9 against 2.78 BB/9). And the 28-year-old wasn’t effective against either lefties or righties. Same-handed hitters recorded a .340 weighted on-base average against him, meaning Kikuchi essentially turned lefties into the 2019 version of Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager. Righties, meanwhile, averaged a lofty .374 mark – the same number Astros second baseman Jose Altuve registered during the season.
So why was Year 1 such a disaster for Kikuchi? Well, as you’d expect, none of his pitches graded out well. According to Statcast, Kikuchi mostly relied on a four-seam fastball (49 percent), a slider (28 percent) and a curveball (15 percent). FanGraphs ranked all of those offerings among the worst of their kind, making it no surprise that so many hitters teed off on him. With that in mind, it’s hardly a shock that Kikuchi ranked toward the basement of the majors in a slew of important Statcast categories, finishing in the league’s 35th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected ERA and expected wOBA, to name a few.
Had Kikuchi gotten off to a slow start and then made a late charge, it would be easier to have some hope going into this season. It was essentially the opposite, though, as Kikuchi owned a passable 4.37 ERA/4.51 FIP through April and then went in the tank from there. His monthly FIP only dipped below 5.00 once after the season’s first month, and it exceeded the 6.00 mark overall after the All-Star break.
In terms of performance from a hyped pitcher, it’s tough to make a much worse first impression than Kikuchi’s from 2019. That doesn’t mean he’ll never amount to anything in the majors – you have to sympathize with someone trying to adjust to a new country and the best baseball league in the world, after all. However, it’s not easy to find encouraging signs from Kikuchi’s first year in the majors, which is not what the rebuilding, long-suffering Mariners had in mind when they took a gamble on him in free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
didnt pay out for my fantasy team that’s for sure
I second that emotion
Over / under your fantasy team is last place in your league? Ill take under.
I’m in the skeptical camp, but he spent the offseason working on a cleaner, consistent delivery.
He consulted Driveline and they apparently told him the same thing Mariner coaches told him: His hand placement when his front leg hit the ground was too low and too late, which likely cost him velocity. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times outlined this in a February article.
He got comfortable with the mechanical adjustments which shortened his delivery and was throwing several MPH harder in spring. The results all around were encouraging.
We’ll see if it pays off in the regular season, whenever that may be.
Stevil- great info. I’m glad you brought up the off-season change in mechanics because the results from said changes looked promising. I watched some ST games this yr, I was intrigued and even optimistic after seeing him regularly reach 95 on his FB. His command and overall confidence looked much improved.
I wonder how much of last years failure was a result of the difference in the size shape and feel of the 2019 baseball?
Could YK and Sheffield’s offseason changes have the same impact as Seager’s changes for the 2019 season? I certainly hope so, we’ll just have to wait and see
Sheffield’s another story, though he took up some significant changes as well.
My concern with him is that he might abandon his 4-seamer. I think he needs to work on it and use it, even if he doesn’t do so as often. The two-seamer might put more stress on his elbow, which makes me wonder if he might be better suited for a relief role (or even a future closer).
I was impressed with Kikuchi this spring as well. I think the most important thing for him now is to trust the process and quit tinkering. Hopefully this interruption doesn’t mess everything up.
It’s Spring Training but I’ve never seen Sheffield look that good! He even mixed in some change ups!
You bring up an interesting point re: wear and tear from relying on a 2-seam FB. I recently saw an article in the NY Post suggesting the 2-seam FB (and Slider) contributed to Syndergaard’s elbow issues. It will be interesting to see how often Sheffield mixes in that 2 seamer.
Btw- If Justus Sheffield’s floor is a reliable late inn reliever or a closer I’d be perfectly fine with that.
He’s no Ohtani
True, because Kikuchi isn’t a two way player.
He might not be a one-way player either.
lol
Note to self: Kikuchi isn’t as good as Ohtani.
Meanwhile, the Ohtani-less Angels rotation finished dead-last in fWAR last season.
Halo- that’s true, Kikuchi was healthy all year. Haha
Hard to accurately judge him.
First season over seas and he gets to throw juiced balls.
Averaged around 93 on his fastball, 86 on his slider, and 84 on his change up. So velocity isn’t that much of a concern.
Threw his fastball 49% of the time and his curve only 16% of the time and his changeup 9%. I think mixing his pitches more instead of throwing fastball.or slider 75% of the time would help him
That’s a little harsh to say for his first year in the big leagues. I still think he has some promise. I’ve seen clips of him looking dominant including a complete game shutout with only throwing 96 pitches that game. You can’t judge someone off of one year. He won’t be a superstar but I believe he will be productive.
Bust…..
I didn’t like it then still don’t like it. Hope he has some type of a rebound so we can get some mid level prospect maybe crossing fingers
Even a year later, such a weird signing for a tanking team. Do the Mariners have some sort of Japanese sponsor agreement that requires them to always have a prominent Japanese player on their roster? Because the signing still makes no sense for them.
It’s called geography and demographics. It’s pretty obvious why Seattle attracts Asian players and why they would Seattle always signs them.
I think they were or are owned by some affiliate of Nintendo.
They were owned by Nintendo until a couple years ago. The CEO bought the team to help keep it in Seattle as a thank you for Seattle being so welcoming to them.
A lot of these players idolized Ichiro and so they watched a lot of Seattle games. The fact that it is as close to Seattle as you can get in the continental U.S. Helps I am sure.
Seattle will be on many of the top Japanese players lists because of Ichiro. It is a team they know and follow.
I love how a few certain bitter Angel fans have to comment on so many Ms articles. Don’t worry you now have another possible superstar that will rot in an Angels uni. We need a free Mike Trout page. Before you say it yes like Felix.
I’ve never understood the Angels fans level of hatred towards Dipoto. What am I missing? I thought the Pujols and Hamilton deals were driven my Moreno and were they not also the victim of bad luck with injuries from a few of his trades? I thought it was the GM before Dipoto that traded Patrick Corbin. The GM before Jerry was worse imo
I can understand the fans anger at firing Hatcher. Not a good way to start your relationship. I suppose I can see fans being angry after trading away Clevinger in 2014 but I thought Clevinger was still recovering from 2012 TJ surgery? I read Clevinger himself was shocked he’d been traded at the time he had a 5.37 ERA in Class A. Not many ppl thought he’d turn into the pitcher he is today.
Of course, if you’ve suffered through years of mis-management under Bill Bavasi I suppose Dipoto’s tenure in LA doesn’t seem quite so bad. Managers make bad deals all the time, I just wonder what makes them SO angry.
You would think with the advanced metrics and spin rates and data these teams can collect just from video that they would know that this guy would have issues. He had a BB9 of 3 and a K9 of 8, those are numbers that are already not that great and now you will face the BEST in the world. As much as I respect the Japanese and Korean leagues, they are NOT the best leagues in the world, guys who come over unless they are absolutely dominating will be hit around. As well if they don’t know how to adjust then it would not be worth the money. Based on his overseas numbers I would NEVER have given him $56M guaranteed. Jays signed Shun Yamaguchi who is 3 years older but had pretty similar stats in the long run as Yusei and it only cost the Jays up to $8M for 2 years. Those overseas players make the M’s look bad and use them, if anything they should be giving Seattle a DISCOUNT.
How did Sasaki, Ichiro, Johjima, Iwakuma, and Hasegawa make the M’s look bad?
*Crickets*
Igawa and Irabu the same way both a disaster. It’s hard to predict who will make it in the MLB.
Kikuchis offseason was going well until the shutdown. They showed plenty of video of him smoothing out his windup and getting him into a more repetitive motion and arm slot. Im hoping for the best if/when we come back.
Every Japanese pitcher is overrated. Ohtani covers his over-rate with the bat. Also of note is Kikuchi’s numbers are that much worse when you consider he got lucky one time and threw a shutout.
His slider was averaging in the low 90s this spring, and his fastball was 93-96 mph. If he can up his velocity that much and sustain it then he should be a very different pitcher than what we saw last year,
Not only was he bad last year, but he’s also bad in mlb the show.
Kikuchi was pretty good in my franchise for 2019, but then he was on the Rays.
Well if he was bad on a video game he must be awful. Last year was a Trojan horse. They collected video of him and showed him his faults. He worked on them and will come out a new and improved pitcher when BB resumes. I sure hope he is good in video games soon. This was all done tongue in cheek.
Nintendo of America still holds a 10% stake in the M’s I believe. His 96 pitch shutout was encouraging. He had a rough rookie year so let’s see what he learned and hopefully he’ll improve. As an M’s fan I really hope it’s not akin the Chone Figgins signing.
I forgot they kept a portion but I believe you are right. N of A was just starting when the team was bought. The year Ichiro was available the CEO told the higher ups in the Org that they better do whatever it took to get Ichiro in Seattle.
Many might know this but the CEO never saw the team play in person. He was afraid to fly so he never came here and if I remember he was afraid to travel to the games in Japan. He was a bit reclusive which is too bad he never saw his team play live. Not sure what the road conditions were from where he lived to Tokyo it was around 200 miles I believe. It seems he could have had a caravan a secure box and hotel room. Some fears are too much though.
all that is old information. If the writer had done alittle more research on recent comments from the coaching staff and the pitcher. In the off season YK reevaluated his pitch approach and decided to follow the coaches recommendations. In spring training, comments were positive and looking better that his approach last year. 2019 YK didnt really like the suggestions of pitch selections. 2020 he is going to listen to his coaches.
His dad died last year too. Any time he was struggling it probably crept back in his mind. Hard to regain himself in that situation. Kikuchi has alot of heart and that played on his emotions. I think it wore him out mentally and physically. He will be successful at some point and I have confidence that he will have seasons as good as Hisashi Iwakuma had with the Mariners when he was at his best
Benji- I think we’ll see him go on to be better than last year, he looked really good in ST this year. I’m not sure YK can reach Kuma’s ceiling- a no hitter and an All-Star berth. Can he have a season like Kuma’s (2.66 ERA) in 2013? I’m not sure he has that in his locker. That’s debatable. I’d love that. I do think YK is capable of showing us something similar to Kuma’s last few years in Seattle. Not sure about that 2013 season tho
I think he have seen the worst of Kikuchi. He can only get better from here. That much I think we can all agree on
I might be totally wrong Benji- in fact, I’d actually like to be;) That’s my favorite thing about the off-season- debating the future career paths of young players! He looked really good in ST…..
That’s my favorite thing about the offseason too. And yes lol he absolutely did look really good in spring training
Glad the padres missed out on him.
Al west has to be the most pitcher friendly division and he struggled
Does anyone have a lead on why Nippon players seem to be hyped up more than the players in the KBO? Is Nippon’s competition tougher? Neither Eric Thames nor Miles Mikolas came with as much fanfare as Shohei Ohtani or Kikucki, and their WAR over the past couple of years has to be pretty similar.
You’d have to think, had he stayed healthy, Ohtani’s WAR would be far higher than Mikolas and Thames. He’s just on a whole different level than those two. That’s a talented baseball player.
As far as YK- Personally, I think the Mariners slightly over reacted after losing out on Shohei. I believe the Ms thought, after losing Ohtani to LAA they were intent on not losing out on YK. So they offered a longer contract and paid a little more than market value.
Pretty sure YK is no bust tho, there were a lot of factors that went in to his poor 1st season including the death of his Father, the dimensions of 2019 MLB ball and a coaching staff that let him try to figure things out on his own which lead to constant tinkering from the middle of the season onwards. I wouldn’t close the door on him, some players take a longer time to adjust, ironically Eric Thames is a perfect example. A lot of people in Seattle thought he’d be a bust but look how he developed confidence overseas then applied that to a pretty decent 2nd act in MLB.