The last time he tried to sort out a new contract with his existing team, things didn’t exactly work out as hoped. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth it for the Nationals to try … after all, Max Scherzer was once open to doing a contract with the Tigers. And when he addressed the topic this spring, Scherzer expressed some degree of openness … though he also indicated he has no interest in pushing the topic himself with two seasons remaining on his old free agent pact.
[MLBTR on YouTube: What If Max Scherzer Stayed A Tiger?]
It’s worth wondering whether a deal might actually make sense for both Scherzer and the Nationals. Committing in advance to a pitcher is always cause for some trepidation, all the more so at the prices and ages at issue here. But … well, let’s just say I won’t be the one to ask the famously intense hurler whether he’s still up to the rigors of the sport.
Scherzer has mostly been an exceptionally durable pitcher, though his decade-long string of 30+ starts finally ended in 2019. He ran into some ailments in the postseason and experienced minor health issues this spring. There’s not much cause for worry, but it’s still a reminder of baseball mortality. Many great players have run into late-career roadblocks relatively suddenly.
Let’s be honest, though: Scherzer is still one of the very best in the business. While he missed five starts last season, he still provided 172 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball. And he turned in a league-leading, career-low 2.45 FIP by generating 12.7 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. His 2.88 xFIP matches his lowest mark since coming to D.C. Scherzer posted a career-best 16.3% swinging-strike rate while maintaining a 95.2 mph average four-seamer — tied for a personal high.
If Scherzer isn’t the single best pitcher in baseball, it’s only because Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole have elevated their own games that much more. There is one other guy who deserves mention, though, when considering the very top starters over the past two seasons. Like Scherzer, this Justin Verlander fella has only increased his output since leaving the Tigers, where they both once starred … and he isn’t exactly a spring chicken.
Verlander represents the key comp when considering a potential Scherzer extension. His new deal — which was inked last spring and was to go into effect for the 2020 season — represents a highly relevant bit of contractual precedent. At two years and $66MM, the deal provides Verlander with eye-popping money at quite an advanced stage of his career: his age-37 and 38 seasons. You can easily argue that it’s still a reasonably team-friendly rate of pay.
That pact was entered just before the start of the 2019 season, which was to be Verlander’s walk year. There weren’t any performance-based discounts: He was coming off of a doozy of a campaign in which he racked up 214 innings of 2.52 ERA ball with dominant peripherals and rising swinging-strike numbers. But Verlander quite understandably couldn’t pry loose both a premium average annual value and an overly lengthy commitment from the Astros.
Like Verlander, Scherzer is slated to reach free agency ahead of his age-37 campaign. To be fair, though, the latter will hit the open market at a bit more advanced age than the former would’ve. Scherzer turned 35 late last July, so while 2020 is designated his age-35 season, he’s actually closer in age right now to where Verlander was (he had just turned 36) when he inked his deal. But Scherzer is two full seasons away from free agency, rather than one, as was JV.
You have to think the Nationals would jump at the opportunity to tack on two years to Scherzer’s deal at the Verlander rate. There was no indication that the Nats and Scherzer were going to reach agreement before Spring Training, so perhaps this is a conversation for the 2020-21 offseason. More will be known then, especially if the team gets to watch its staff co-ace work in a truncated 2020 campaign. There’s less risk committing later, of course. But leverage will also be lost in the meantime.
Honestly, it might be worth making a run at a deal once the contract freeze is lifted; perhaps there were even some talks beforehand that never reached the public eye. While agent Scott Boras isn’t fond of deals that keep his players from the open market, he has worked extensively with Nationals ownership — including on two massive contracts with the team’s other top starter, Stephen Strasburg, one of which was an extension. Sorting something out to keep Max in D.C. through the end of his career would not only mean locking in another part of the team’s highly paid, three-headed pitching monster (Patrick Corbin being the other), but might ensure that Scherzer becomes the first player to don a Nationals cap in Cooperstown. (He’s not a sure thing just yet, but isn’t far from locking down future admission.)
Thing is: would Scherzer really be willing to settle for a two-year deal, even at a sum that tops Verlander by a bit? Or would he hold out for an even larger and/or longer deal? Cole just took home a $36MM AAV on his monster contract with the Yankees. Perhaps Mad Max — who has earned that appellation through unremitting competitiveness — would want to be paid at or above that level on an annual basis. Maybe he’d find it limiting to suggest he’s only worthy of a two-year extension. Scherzer certainly doesn’t seem like the type to settle for something fair and plan ahead for hanging up his spikes. Come to think of it, he may not be that interested in a deal at all. He’s obviously loaded already, so this wouldn’t be life-changing cash (not that it was for Verlander, needless to say). Scherzer might rather wait to return to free agency … unless, at least, the Nats proved willing to go absolutely wild with an offer to keep him without the need to top other bids. Could it take three guaranteed years? Four?!
It’s anyone’s guess what his personal view is, not to mention that of Boras, but it’s unlikely that it would make a ton of sense for the Nationals to over-commit. The team already placed a huge bet on Strasburg and will be paying Corbin major money through 2024, so there’s a lot of rotation cash on the books already. While Scherzer’s a living legend who’s arguably just as good now as ever before, the baseball reaper ultimately comes for all the great ones. The only risks are paying him a bit more or losing him free agency. Then again, with a pitcher as special Scherzer, the thought of a departure may be enough to spur the Nationals to enter completely new contractual terrain to forestall that possibility.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Max is one of the smartest players in baseball. He keeps track of everything. I’ll bet he knows exactly what he’s worth. Someone will pay it, either the Nats of someone. Whether he’s worth it in the back half of his thirties is another matter.
Even at 37 years old Max has put himself in the position to get a 3 year 90 million deal and possibly more.
The Dodgers have been willing to pay some premiums for needle-moving talent on short term control. Who knows what they’d bid in an open market on such a talent. 2/80?
Bingo. He’s checks every single box the Dodgers look for in players. If he hits the open market, he’ll be a Dodger.
Dodgers seem to be in on every big free agent, rarely sign them.
Looking at the roster the last five years they have signed plenty of higher profile free agents but they also like to have the ability to use the trade deadline to acquire talent as well. That means not going whole hog on big signings.
Most of them came in trades.
Scherzer has three Cy Young Awards, two no-hitters, a 20-strikeout game, a 300-strikeout season, two immaculate innings, seven All-Star selections, and a World Series ring. He has a career 3.20 ERA and is maybe a year and change away from 3,000 strikeouts; if he doesn’t get to 3,000 for some reason, it will go down in lore that the only reason he didn’t is because of the pandemic. He’s widely regarded as one of the greatest pitchers of the 2010s and probably the best right-handed pitcher of the decade, maybe even of the century to date. He’s started eighteen playoff games and earned the win in seven. What on earth does he need to do to lock down a spot in Cooperstown that he hasn’t already done?
I mean, it wasn’t a critique. He’s phenomenal. I see him as a Hall of Famer. But everyone has different standards and we don’t know exactly how entry will look when he’s eligible. It doesn’t seem supportable to call him an absolute surefire HOFer at this point, though it’s hard to imagine he won’t get in with more time left to build his resume.
Due to his later start he is 8 JAWS points behind the average HOF pitcher, Verlander, Greinke and Kershaw are all closer but still slightly behind, he’s also about 13 WAR behind the average HOFer.. All that said I don’t know anyone that doesn’t think Scherzer hasn’t already punched his ticket into Cooperstown and he’s also extremely likely to eclipse all those averages before he’s done.
Yea and Verlander has never won a world series game. That is troubling to me yea a great LCS pitcher but he has never won a world series game WOW. i sound like Chris Russo.
Can’t look at JAWS as a barometer. Every era, pitching and hitting, is different for a variety of reasons. We can’t compare pitchers from 100 years ago to today’s hurlers.
Literally what JAWS was created to do.
From BR.com
“dedveloped,,,as a means to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness by comparing him to the players at his position who are already enshrined.”
HE HAS A PERFECT GAME. JOSE TABATA SHOULD BE BANNED FROM BASEBALL although he SUCKS and does not play anymore.
Dallas Braden has a perfect game too.
So does Armando Galara… oh wait.
Amen brother
@ Sao…
What does Max still need to do?
Convince sports writers he deserves to be in the hall
Wait a minute… on the About MLB Trade Rumors page, there’s a section right at the top with Max Scherzer revealing that he follows MLB Trade Rumors. If he reads this article he will gain valuable tactical information on how the industry views him at the moment!
(sneaky little devil)
Typically id say 3/100 but with a down year in Rev might be closer to 3/85 now
Max is a surefire Hall of Famer right now! Id have a hard time seeing him go in without a Nats hat at this point. His achievements in DC far outweighs that of Detroit and he has 2 more seasons to go, give or take.
I’d think he’s more valuable to them than he’d be for another team out on the open market. They’re the only team that wouldn’t have a ton of regret if it all went south with his back in the middle of a 3 year deal.
Uh, I don’t want to see any of part of Scherzer extended, thanks.
You must be a Mets fan.
Oh god, don’t swear at me like that.
Also, I was trying to make a bad sexual pun. Ah, forget it
He mustn’t be 13 if that’s not immediately where his head went.
his screen name says it all
“Hey Brian, Brian, look over there!”
“What Mitsy, what?”
Tumbleweeds enter stage left, drift inexorably and exit stage right.
Cole is a one year wonder so far. DeGrom is a stud. Max is by far the best out there and has proven it.
1 year wonder? Maybe you should look at his stats, he had 1 bad year 3 years of dominance and a couple good years.
This must be Neal Huntington’s burner account.
Scherzer is definitely a hall of Famer.
He should have stayed a Tiger.
yeah his Nationals career really hasn’t panned out.
He was clearly full of regret last October.
OK peeps don’t forget your [sarcasm alerts] lol
What is all this crazy talk? The man is old and has two years left on his deal. Father Time sometimes pushes you off a cliff. When did patience become a lost art!!??
How old was Nolan Ryan when he retired?
This not like you are talking about a [pitcher who has struggled to maintain an elite performance level. Age is just a number. What matter what have you done lately and what can you do for me tomorrow?
Are you kidding me when you write that Max might not be an HoF yet Who is ??
Hall of Fame voting is a fickle and unpredictable process
ANd then their is the parallel issue of those denied the hall due to their actions…
but that is another debate for another thread
Seems like a mistake to sign him to an extension right now. Sure he’s a great pitcher, but he’s also 35, and signed through age 37. It’s not impossible that he’ll still perform at a high level past age 37, but it’s much more likely that he won’t. The Nats should enjoy the next 2 years and then use that money somewhere else. Or at least wait and see if they’re a win now team in 2 years, because unless he’s going to give them a big discount, Scherzer is basically at his most expensive price right now, so there’s no benefit to signing an extension now.
The likelihood Scherzer will continue to pitch at even 75% of his capacity at age 38 and 39 is remote. Two dominant HOF pitchers that come to mind are Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton. Even in their mid 30s it seemed like they were gonna be dominant well into their 40s, but both hit a wall and were shadows of their former selves. I’d ride out the contract and offer him the QO after ‘21 if I was Rizzo.