Trevor Bauer’s free agency this winter will be fascinating for all kinds of reasons. In today’s video, Jeff Todd and Tim Dierkes offer predictions on which team will sign Bauer, and the amount of his upcoming contract.
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Accepts the QO
I can only see him doing so if he pitches really poorly in 2020. Otherwise, he can shop around and $18MM should be out there a few months later.
Will a team give up a pick for a backened starter?
If you look at his 2019 numbers I could maybe see a “back end starter.” Look at his 2018 numbers and you’ll see a front end starter. The only reason he was a back end starter in Cleveland is that staff was absolutely loaded.
I think you have to consider the fact that nearly every single pitcher in 2019 suffered from MLB’s decision to change the baseball.
He commented on Twitter. You guys should ask him for comment 🙂
Also, please please please get him to write for this site. He is the most under utilized asset the MLB has.
Read “The MVP machine”
Bkbk- I honestly don’t understand the hate for Trevor Bauer. He has the courage to speak his mind, he shares interesting, creative and thoughtful ideas to make the game better. In a world where athletes are trained to give the same boring answer to every question it’s refreshing to hear an original ‘voice.’
This has nothing to do with Bauer’s opinions, it is about his performance.,Billy Martin once said: “I do not care if my pitching rotation is Hitler, Mussolini and Stalin, if they could win 20 games apiece”
NYY- I responded to bkbk’s comment. As you can see the comment is not about Trevors pitching abilities. It’s about his voice and the fact he thinks it should be heard on this site. Incidentally, if you read the comments section of any Trevor Bauer article you will very much see people judging his comments and opinions rather than his ability to pitch.
So Trevor Bauer used the most innovative techniques to “get out ahead” of everyone else, and all it’s resulted in is innings eating mediocrity, and a poor reputation amongst his peers.
While he does have a tendency to turn some people off some of his peers love them, he’s the guy willing to put his big mouth out there and see what many of them are thinking.
6 years/$105 million
Minor League Contract with the Marlins
Who wants that cancer around
Considering teams openly employ wife beaters and all other sorts of characters, I think teams would be fine with Bauer.
This. He’s definitely an eccentric but not a monster or clubhouse poison. I follow some of his youtube content, looks like he’s friends with, or well enough liked by more than just a few current and former teammates. Can someone point to where this reputation stems from, because it’s news to me.
I think it might be a remnant of something Miguel Montero in 2013.
cbssports.com/mlb/news/d-backs-miguel-montero-has-…
Thank ye kind sir
I think six figure contracts will be few this next year, it’s not just the teams that aren’t making any money right now, a lot of these owners are taking a beating with their other personal businesses
How quickly it comes back is anyone’s guess, but I could see a lot of 1 year let’s see how the next year goes type of deals next offseason
He lead an online war against a young fan who’d innocently razzed him a bit online to the point where she legitimately began to fear for her life. This amongst other highly inappropriate online behavior. He’s a head case. (And only really had one very good year)
you realize six figures is less than $1M, right?
Last year (was it only last year?), Bauer was on the mound for the Indians and was obviously frustrated to see Francona coming out to pull him. As Tito approached, Bauer hurled a baseball high and far out into center field. When Tito got to the mound, you could clearly see his lips angrily forming the words, “What the f___ is the matter with you?” That looked like the culmination of a lot of managerial frustration with this person. About a week later, Bauer was traded, which I have always thought stemmed directly from that incident.
Personally I think there are a few players who think he breaks the players code of ethics, they think he shares info that should only stay in the clubhouse but baseball is funny that way
I’d pass on the Bauer circus – obnoxious.
He’s mets bound
I like that pick – they were probably in my top three.
I’d rather resign stroman. The energy he brings is unmatched.
Stroman is also much easier to root for
Thor- I personally think he’s heading up to the NW. Seattle has plenty of creative and original thinkers what’s one more? He’d fit perfectly up there. Plus, the Mariners will have a ton of money to spend next year.
If he doesn’t take the QO, I can see the braves giving him a one year deal in the $22.5-27.5 million range. The braves don’t mind giving out these one year deals. The braves have a lot of young pitching that they might want to limit, Hamels will be coming off the books. So the braves can let Bauer pitch atleast every 5 days and possibly letting him get 34-37 starts just to limit guys like Fried, Soroka, Anderson, I definitely see the fit with the braves
They certainly like their one-year deals, though Rick Kranitz seems pretty old school for him.
Seems like these young pitchers have been “limited ” forever….Are the baby gloves ever coming off?
Or is there just less than advertised behind the curtain….
Im starting to think the latter
High end pitcher who only wants to go year to year? That reeks of a Phillies type move.
I’d be fine with that.
It does, although the switch from a data-driven Chris Young to Bryan Price might not be Bauer’s preference.
inquirer.com/phillies/phillies-aaron-nola-bryan-pr…
Gosh please no. keep him away from here. give me Tanaka
Tanaka is have his ashes scattered at Yankee stadium-
Dont hold your breath
Gabby Jay! YAY!
Astros lol. Seriously, not interested in him, but that would be flat out hilarious to see.
Seems like the one contender you pretty much have to rule out.
Considering Cole is on the Yankees, I’d list them as unlikely as well.
Would put the Astros second to the Yankees on his no go list, he ain’t signing up to play with Cole
My Rangers are out on him, and I know that. If we resign Minor (fingers crossed), we won’t need a rotation arm. Plus paying him 20 mil wouldn’t help our chances of getting Mookie or Springer. But I really do like Bauer -unlike some people- and I think that his work ethic and attitude could really help market a team. I think that the Jays would be the perfect fit for him though. They have holes in the rotation, they will be breaking out in 21′ (if all goes as planned), and it will give Bauer a chance to be a power trio with Ryu and Pearson and maybe make the playoffs.
What if Minor leaves or someone gets hurt? Bauer seems plausible enough for the Rangers.
Even if injuries happen Daniels has stated before that he would like to see Allard, Palumbo, or Hearn get a chance. Preferably if Minor Leaves, then yes I’d love to see Bauer in Texas, but if injuries happen (unless it’s TJ) then they’ll probably fill the spot with one of our AAA guys. Knock on wood.
BTW I hope Minor stays, he deserves a chance to be on the next good Rangers team, he’s kind of our stable piece right now.
As an Astros fan I hope you are right, cause if y’all won’t go for a guy like Bauer your chances of getting to championship level is pretty low
He has Dodgers written all over him. Dodgers ownership doesn’t want to give out long term deals. He says he wants only one year deal at a time. Dodgers could finally say, that they landed a premium FA
Very much. Probably my #2 pick.
LA’s big free agent will be Betts. They will make if a qualifying offer, and he will end up in LA ( but for far less then anyone projected):
On a one year deal they could easily do both
Dodgers are HUGE on “Yes Men”
I dont see Bauer as a fit whatsoever
Bravado intimidates the hell outta Friedman and Stan who are probably the most boring people you will ever meet
What about Cleveland @ less then $5m ( he gets no qualifying offer from Cincinnati). Why? Look at the financial bath teams will take in 2020
We haven’t really baked the likely depressed free agent market into these early predictions. That’s pretty hard to pin down right now. But I can’t see it resulting in a $5MM contract for him.
No way on earth is only offer is out there in that range and also Tito does not want him back he’s done in Cleveland.
cant wait for him to start his post playing media career
Me too! The world needs more creative and original voices.
does it really tho
It most certainly does. Yeah maybe we need more fake people who are unimaginative and afraid to speak their mind?
Bauer has said he only wants to sign one year contracts, so I see him going to the Yanks for one year 25 million.
yikes, they already overpaid gerrit cole. no need to overpay someone not quite as good
And doesn’t get along with Cole.
He also said that he was open to a multi-year deal, that he really doesn’t know (yet) what’s going to work out best for him.
I would imagine he’ll gauge his market carefully and decide once he’s done that.
I think circumstances are such that a one-year deal would have been a good call for him even if that wasn’t his plan all along.
Bauer wasn’t nearly good enough in ‘19 to warrant 25 million. He’s being way overrated here.
It would be fitting to see Bauer sign a 2-year deal with the Houston Astros. Aside from the obvious, Bauer would actually be a nice fit for that club.
Stronger suitors for his services may be Boston, both New York teams and Minnesota.
Give your head a shake. He’s not going to the Yankees. Cole can’t stand him.
Yankees: Gerrit, we think Bauer can help us win the World Series and he’s interested in wearing pinstripes.
Cole: Go get him.
Your argument is finished. Probably one of the easiest to shoot down in MLBTR history.
I just hope the Reds get a competitive balance pick.
100% he accepts the QO or sits until the draft. if the season isnt played he’s had a year off which wolnt help his market as a SP, and if he does play he’ll be the 4.00+ pitcher he’s always been. not worth 18 million.
Wow 100% huh…I’d take the other side of that bet.
I’ll go $10k on him not accepting.
sorry, better prediction would be if he gets one his agent tells him to accept and he turns around and fires the guy and then represents himself because thats how this guy rolls.
overrated. one good year and has otherwise been a 4.00+ ERA pitcher. colorful guy but not all that good.
He’s good at throw!
Truth. EXTREMELY overrated
He’s been living off of one stellar season but sucks overall
I doubt MLB teams consider that to be true.
Bauer is one of those “Teases.” What do I mean? He has all the ability in the world but he is a .500 career pitcher. Why? No one can figure it out Bauer included, but because of that ability, teams will try and try again.
I see him as a right-handed Danny Jackson. The idea of Bauer has uncanny appeal, but the results never justify his cost.
Easy to see Seattle offering some kind of multi-year deal with a high base, plus incentives to reward him generously if he throws like an ace or a solid number one.
If he insists on a one-year deal and has the QO attached, I would imagine they wouldn’t be interested.
I see a lot of similarities in Bauer’s and Seattle’s off-season pitching programs- no doubt you’ve read about Trevor Bauer’s connection to the Driveline Baseball facility located 10-15 miles away from T-Mobile Park. I’d love to see him in Seattle
Hey Jeff. How about at the beginning of the videos telling us what team the hat you’re wearing is (assuming it’s not obvious) ?
Are the MLBTR staff growing coronavirus beards in solidarity with people on the front lines?
Or are they always hairy beatniks?
As Grandpa Simpson once said….a little from column A, a little from column B.
Really though I think Jeff always had something and I started growing one during quarantine.
Dodgers = 1 year $30 million.
He’s not worth anything close to that
…and they don’t need starting pitching.
Trevor Bauer will be the next Charlie Morton. He has the stuff but has been home run prone and a high ERA every season instead of 2018. I see him aging like a fine wine and figuring it out. Him asking for a one year deal is smart and he wants to show case his true talent on that one year deal. I Don’t see him going to a national league team because he hates to hit. He will end up going back to the American League.
Charlie Morton is awesome!
Was that a diss?
No it’s a compliment. Trevor baur will be the next Charlie Morton as of being a late bloomer.
Unless the DH is applauded across the board then that opens up his market
I know he is not going to the Yankees.
The Yankees will be good position after 2020. Why? . They finally will be rid of Elsbury’s Contract ( even if the arbitrator rules for Elsbury) ,I also suspect they will sign one of the two between Tanaka and Paxton ( to be replaced by Schmidt), which is why they do not need Bauer.
Bauer is certainly an interesting case.
There is a lot of value in quantity and certainty, and he offers both in terms of IP and taking the ball every fifth day.
On the other hand, he offers uncertainty in that there is no telling what will happen from start to start…and there often isnt a lot of quality among that quantity.
His 2018 looks a lot like an outlier. Will teams pony up for his 2018, or back off because of his 2019…or pay for his full body of work? Theres a ton of monetary difference between those three.
And, then there is the personality factor. Many folks think it is of no consequence, but those same folks felt that way about Yasiel Puig. And his post game pressers play a whole lot better in Cleveland…where he had a friendly media..than they will in the Eastern big markets. This conversation would have taken a whole different turn had Bauer spent the last six years pitching in Boston, NY, or Philly.
It will take multiple teams to bid him up, but how many are likely to bid for him?
Scratch non contenders, small markets, along with Houston, Arizona, Cleveland, and the Yankees. I also think above comments about his abhorrence of having a bat in his hands holds some merit.
I am going to say he signs a one year deal. He still has that bet going if he signs more than a 1 year deal his friend gets to shoot him in the nuts with a paintball gun.
1 yr/27 mil to the Padres in a “please get me to the playoffs so I can keep my job” move by AJ Preller
I’ve never seen a more overrated pitcher who gets placed near the top of every rotation. The guys has one season where you can actually call him a over average and he’s going to get over 20 million?
Why not? JA Happ got 2 yrs $34m
If you add in the innings and starts Bauers comes with, ‘average’ is pretty darned good.
All things considered, he is a #2 SP. If you go by fWAR, over the last three or four seasons, he is a #1….12th in total FWAR over the last three, 13th over the last four.
But he isnt a staff leader. He had the opportunity to become that when Kluber and Carrasco were lost to Clevelands rotation last year, but spit the bit….and his move to Cincinnati, when the Reds were on the fringes of contention, didnt go well.
He operates far more effectively if he is the third man in a very good rotation than the head guy in a below average group.
A team such as San Diego should consider that.
If Bauer pitches like it’s 2018 the sky would be the limit on his contract value,but that year and half(last half of 2017) he pitched like a #1 starter is an outlier.Put that together with his personality,he may be looking at surprisingly low offers.
He’ is a horse with decent stuff,but throws too many pitches to get deep into starts and so burdens your bullpen to the point where he isn’t really an innings eater.
He is a very intelligent guy and approaches his craft scientifically.He’s better at analyzing other pitchers than he is of himself however and he talks like he’s discovered ‘Pitching ‘and the rest of baseball is just too stupid to realize it.
Bauer is a nice guy,but has a personality that gets in his way.After Mickey Callaway left the Indians he started bad mouthing him and indirectly Francona and the Indians organization,even though his greatest success came when he finally followed the Indians plan for him to throw curves and fastballs for strikes and develop a single out pitch,which turned out to be his slider.Considering all the success the Indians have had developing pitchers this shows a ignorant side of Bauer that is not what most teams would like to see.
When something goes wrong for Bauer when he pitches, he always has a reason,it’s never his fault.This gets annoying really fast and is something a MLB team notices for sure.
Bauer is a solid addition to any teams rotation,but he’s not a number one or two starter and he brings some baggage.On a one year deal the baggage shouldn’t matter as much so it really comes down to how he pitches.If he replicates 2019 then it will be for less than 20 million a year that’s for sure.